Group 1: Federal Reserve's Political Crisis - The Federal Reserve is at the center of a political crisis influenced by Trump's efforts to reshape the deep government, raising questions about its ability to manipulate interest rates[2] - As of August 9, the top three candidates for the "shadow Fed chair" are Waller (26.6%), Hassett (13.7%), and Warsh (7.9%) based on market expectations[2][3] - Trump's potential influence includes nominating a "dovish" shadow chair and possibly replacing Powell if he does not remain[3][4] Group 2: Interest Rate Manipulation - The Fed can set but not manipulate policy rates or the yield curve, as rates are endogenous and influenced by macroeconomic factors[4] - The neutral interest rate in the U.S. has risen from around 0% to approximately 1-1.5%, indicating that the Fed's rate cuts may have a terminal point around 300-350 basis points[4] - By July 2025, the Fed's target for the federal funds rate should be between 3.8% and 6.3%, with the current rate at 4.3%, suggesting no restrictive policy at present[4] Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Monetary Coordination - The Fed's ability to cut rates depends more on fiscal consolidation than on board changes, as government deleveraging can lower the neutral rate and support the Fed's anti-inflation efforts[5] - Historically, a 1% reduction in the fiscal deficit can lead to a 12-35 basis point decrease in the 10-year Treasury yield[5] - Sustainable fiscal consolidation can be achieved through economic growth or budget cuts, each with different political costs and implications[5]

Group 1 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified his comments regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, stating he is not calling for a series of rate cuts but suggesting that the "neutral rate" should be approximately 150 basis points lower than current levels [1][2] - Bessent indicated that the current interest rate level is "too restrictive" and predicted that the Federal Reserve might initiate a series of rate cuts in the coming months, with a potential 50 basis point cut in September [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's current target range for the benchmark interest rate is 4.25% to 4.5%, while officials estimate the long-term neutral rate to be around 3% [1] Group 2 - Bessent's comments have drawn criticism, with some experts arguing that the Treasury Secretary should not publicly express opinions on the neutral rate, as it may exert direct pressure on the Federal Reserve [2][4] - Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted, with futures indicating that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates by a cumulative 150 basis points by the end of next year, and confidence in a 25 basis point cut in September has slightly decreased [4] - St. Louis Fed President James Bullard expressed concerns about inflation following the release of PPI data, suggesting that a 50 basis point cut may not align with the current economic conditions [4]

贝森特说："我没有告诉美联储该怎么做。"他指的是前一天关于美联储"可以开始一系列降息"的言论。 美国财长贝森特日内表示，他并不是要求美联储进行一系列减息，只是指出，模型显示，"中性"利率将 比现在低150个基点左右。 贝森特表示："我所说的是，要达到中性利率，大约需要降息150个基点。如果相信中性利率的存在，我 认为有空间进行一系列降息，但我不是在呼吁降息，我也没有这么呼吁，我只是说模型测算的中性利率 比当前水平低约150个基点。"（新华财经） ...

贝森特说："我没有告诉美联储该怎么做。"他指的是前一天关于美联储"可以开始一系列降息"的言论。 贝森特表示："我所说的是，要达到中性利率，大约需要降息150个基点。如果相信中性利率的存在，我 认为有空间进行一系列降息，但我不是在呼吁降息，我也没有这么呼吁，我只是说模型测算的中性利率 比当前水平低约150个基点。" （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京8月14日电美国财长贝森特日内表示，他并不是要求美联储进行一系列减息，只是指出， 模型显示，"中性"利率将比现在低150个基点左右。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, indicated that there is room for a series of interest rate cuts, starting potentially with a 25 basis point reduction, while emphasizing the importance of maintaining a belief in the neutral interest rate being at a lower level [1] Group 1 - The Treasury Secretary did not call for the Federal Reserve to lower rates to 1.5%, suggesting a more gradual approach to rate cuts [1] - There is a focus on reducing the spread between mortgage-backed securities and U.S. Treasury bonds as a key objective [1] - Becerra clarified that there is no call for consecutive rate cuts, but rather a suggestion that models indicate the neutral rate could be lower [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a nearly certain interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, driven by recent economic data and comments from officials, which could impact silver prices and trading strategies [3][4]. Group 1: Market Data - As of August 14, the silver spot price is trading at $38.34 per ounce, with a daily high of $38.73 and a low of $38.20 [1]. - Other silver-related prices include silver T+D at 9,270 yuan per kilogram, paper silver at 8.837 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures at 9,286 yuan per kilogram [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The market's expectation for a 99.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is based on the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which indicates a slowdown in inflation [3]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent suggests a more aggressive rate cut of 50 basis points may be necessary due to weak employment data, advocating for a reduction of 150 to 175 basis points to reach a neutral rate around 3% [3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is expected to provide guidance on potential rate cuts during the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium, with market participants looking for clarity on the September meeting [4]. - The discussion around Powell's leadership and potential successors adds a political dimension to the Fed's future decisions, influencing market sentiment [4]. Group 4: Silver Trading Strategy - Technical analysis indicates that a pullback in silver prices may be due to profit-taking after an overbought condition, with key resistance at $38.40 and support around $38.10 [5]. - A significant drop below $38 could lead silver prices towards $37.00, while a breakthrough above $38.75 could target $39.00 and potentially challenge the highest levels since February 2012 [5].

投资者们越来越预期欧元区将进入"长期高利率"(Higher for longer)状态，而预计在3月会出现的利率下 调只是暂时现象，之后借款利率将再度攀升至2%以上。 例如，包括高盛在内的一些投资银行已经调整了他们的预测，现在预计欧洲央行已经结束了当前的宽松 货币政策周期。 尽管贸易风险仍可能对经济增长和通胀造成影响，但这些银行认为，欧洲央行在最近的会议后对欧元区 经济给出了乐观的评估，因此在可预见的未来，该央行很可能会将利率维持在2%的水平。 多项基于市场的利率预期指标显示，在美国与欧盟近期达成贸易协议之后，投资者对于关税带来的通缩 影响的担忧正在逐渐减轻。交易员还认为，德国大幅增加财政支出将促进经济发展，从而在更长期内减 少进一步降息的必要性。 "Higher for longer"这一观点在2022年和2023年主导了市场走势，当时各大央行正努力应对由新冠疫情和 俄乌战争所引发的顽固通胀问题。 以下是一些能够反映利率前景的市场指标： 短期利率政策前景：欧元短期利率预计最终将达2% 针对欧洲央行官方隔夜基准利率(即欧元短期利率，简称ESTR)的远期合约显示，到明年3月，该利率下 调25个基点的可能性约为6 ...

汇通财经APP讯——随着全球经济风向标——美联储 的下一步动作备受关注，市场对9月降息的预期几乎板上钉钉。最新数据显示，美联储9 月降息已成市场共识，而财长贝森特更抛出"50基点暴击"的震撼预告。更耐人寻味的是，就在这个敏感时刻，美联储主席候选名单突然从3人 暴增至11人，背后究竟暗藏哪些玄机？ 市场预期：9月降息几乎无悬念 根据芝加哥商业交易所（CME）的FedWatch工具，在美国 劳工统计局发布7月消费者物价指数（CPI）数据后，市场对美联储9月降息的预期 达到了惊人的99.9%。这一数据反映了市场对美联储在9月16-17日会议上至少降息25个基点的强烈信心。7月CPI数据显示，美国通胀温和，物 价上涨速度已逐步放缓，这为美联储调整货币政策提供了空间。更引人注目的是，美国财长贝森特（Bessent）在接受彭博电视采访时明确表 示，鉴于近期就业数据的疲软，美联储可能需要更大幅度降息，甚至可能一次性下调50个基点。 贝森特进一步指出，当前联邦基金利率（4.25%-4.5%）的限制性过强，可能会对经济造成不必要的压力。他建议将利率下调150至175个基点， 使之接近所谓的中性利率水平（约3%），即既不刺激经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the high probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September, with expectations of a potential 50 basis point cut due to weak employment data and inflation concerns [3][4][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting has risen to nearly 100%, with a 75 basis point reduction expected throughout the year [4]. - Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, have adjusted their forecasts to anticipate the first rate cut in September [4]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra suggests that the current monetary policy is overly restrictive and advocates for a reduction of 150 to 175 basis points, aligning with the Fed's neutral rate [5]. Group 2: Employment and Economic Indicators - The upcoming retail sales data is crucial for assessing the resilience of the U.S. economy, with expectations of a 0.5% month-on-month increase in July [5]. - Recent employment reports indicate a downward revision of over 250,000 jobs for May and June, raising concerns about the labor market [4]. - The Fed's decision-making may hinge on further employment and inflation data before the September meeting [8]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - The list of potential successors for Fed Chair Powell has expanded to 11 candidates, indicating a shift in the administration's approach to leadership at the Fed [7]. - Some Fed policymakers are leaning towards a more dovish stance, with discussions around the possibility of multiple rate cuts this year [7][8]. - Despite the shift towards easing, there are still cautious voices within the Fed, emphasizing the need to balance inflation targets with employment goals [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Harker believes that there is still a long way to go before reaching a neutral interest rate [1] Group 1 - Harker's comments suggest that the current interest rates are not yet at a level that can be considered neutral for the economy [1] - The statement indicates ongoing concerns about inflation and economic growth, implying that further adjustments to interest rates may be necessary [1] - The perspective reflects a cautious approach by the Federal Reserve in navigating monetary policy amidst changing economic conditions [1]