通过此次战略合作，OpenAI将建成并部署至少10吉瓦的AI数据中心，配备数百万块英伟达GPU，用于 构建下一代AI基础设施。消息公布后，英伟达的股价迅速转涨，一度涨超4%，刷新历史新高，总市值 逼近4.5万亿美元。 在英伟达的推动下，美股三大股指均刷新历史新高，标普500指数收涨幅0.44%，报6693.75点；道琼斯 工业平均指数收涨0.14%，报46381.54点；纳指收涨0.70%，报22788.976点。 在三大股指创新高的背景下，"恐慌指数"VIX波动率指数也上涨了4.14%。这表明，尽管大盘普涨，但 部分投资者仍在通过期权等工具进行对冲，显示出市场情绪并非完全乐观，存在一定的谨慎。 德意志银行则表示，美股上行之际黄金价格处于历史高位，这也反映出了市场的谨慎态度，黄金作为一 种不支付股息或票息的资产，其吸引力通常在投资者寻求避险时上升。 新华财经上海9月23日电（葛佳明） 当地时间9月22日，美国三大股指接连刷新历史高位，市场情绪高 涨。同时，作为避险资产的黄金仍强势上行，现货金价站上每盎司3750美元，市场似乎步入了押注美联 储大幅降息的模式。 德意志分析师亨利·艾伦（Henry Allen）在 ...

美联储官员们似乎有意给降息预期降温。 博斯蒂克称，当前是政策制定者"最艰难的时期之一"，因为"两种风险（通胀、就业）都在上升"。 对于就业市场，博斯蒂克表示，目前美国劳动力市场并未陷入危机，至于其疲软程度究竟如何，目前尚无定论。 面对市场愈发激进的降息预期，多位美联储官员突然释放"鹰派"信号。其中，美国亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，目前没有太多理由进一步降息，预计 2025年仅会降息一次。美国圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆也对进一步降息表示怀疑。 这番表态显然与市场预期相差甚远，据芝商所"美联储观察"工具，市场预计美联储将分别在10月、12月各降息25个基点的概率分别为89.8%、75.4%。 有华尔街机构指出，目前美联储内部正沿着"2025年是否降息75个基点"这条线，分裂为两大观点鲜明的阵营。美联储主席鲍威尔此前也公开承认，联邦公开 市场委员会内部对后续的降息路径存在较大分歧。 美东时间9月22日，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）在纽约经济俱乐部活动上的书面发言中表示，当前利率过高，美联储需要在未来数月大幅降 息以保护美国劳动力市场。米兰对中性利率的预估值约为2.5%，明显低于美联储官员3% ...

Group 1 - The new Federal Reserve Governor, Milan, emphasizes the independence of monetary policy and bases decisions on objective economic data, advocating for a 50 basis point rate cut, which he was the only member to support [1][3] - Milan predicts that interest rates need to be lowered by more than 100 basis points by the end of the year, arguing that current rates are significantly above the neutral rate and that strict immigration policies will reduce housing demand and inflationary pressures [2][3] - Milan's stance on aggressive rate cuts may lead to market volatility, as he warns that prolonged deviation from the neutral rate could threaten employment targets [2][3] Group 2 - Milan's communication with Trump was limited to congratulations, with no discussion of voting intentions, reinforcing his commitment to independent economic data interpretation and alleviating concerns about political interference [4] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari supports the current rate cut decisions, citing low risks of inflation from tariffs and viewing Milan's appointment as a routine personnel change, indicating continued public trust in the Fed's independence [5] - Milan's aggressive rate cut proposals could exert 5%-8% downward pressure on the dollar index in the short term, contradicting traditional views that high rates support the dollar, and potentially accelerating capital outflows to emerging markets [6]

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3,760, with the latest price at $3,754.89 per ounce, reflecting a 0.23% increase, and a high of $3,758.97 and a low of $3,737.71 during the session, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1][3] - The recent strong rebound in gold prices is supported by the weakness in the US dollar index, which faced resistance and declined, maintaining a downward trend that is expected to support gold prices [3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve's new governor, Stephen Milan, has called for significant and rapid interest rate cuts in the coming months to prevent unnecessary layoffs in the labor market, indicating that current rates are too high [2] - Milan expressed that the neutral interest rate has significantly declined and may have been systematically overestimated, suggesting a need for rate reductions to avoid economic damage [2] - He anticipates a total of 125 basis points in rate cuts over the remaining meetings this year, which is much higher than the median forecast of 50 basis points among officials [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent movements in the financial markets, particularly focusing on the U.S. dollar index, silver prices, and the implications of Federal Reserve officials' comments on interest rates and inflation [1][3][4]. Market Overview - The U.S. dollar index is trading around 97.29, while spot silver opened at $44.00 per ounce and is currently around $43.97 per ounce [1]. - On September 22, the dollar index fell by 0.35% to close at 97.32, while spot silver rose by 2.29% to $44.05 per ounce, marking a new high since May 2011 [1]. - Spot gold surged over $60, reaching a new historical high above $3740, closing at $3746.36 per ounce [1]. Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman is expected to speak on economic prospects, and the U.S. will release preliminary PMI data for September [1]. - Fed official Milan suggests that the neutral interest rate has been overestimated and advocates for a 1.25% rate cut this year, estimating the neutral rate at around 2.5% [3]. - Fed's Bostic expresses reluctance to support another rate cut in October due to inflation concerns, indicating only one expected cut in 2025 [3]. - Cleveland Fed President Mester emphasizes caution in monetary policy adjustments due to persistent inflation above the 2% target [4]. Silver Market Analysis - The SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 163.76 tons to 15,368.9 tons [2]. - Silver market opened at 43.113, experienced a slight pullback, and then surged to a high of 44.11 before closing at 44.053, indicating a bullish trend [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding monetary policy, particularly following its first interest rate cut since December of the previous year, which has sparked significant debate among its members [1][3]. Group 1: Internal Divisions - The Federal Reserve is split into two camps: one led by the White House economic advisor, advocating for substantial rate cuts to protect the labor market, and the other, led by several regional Fed presidents, cautious about further cuts due to inflation concerns [3]. - The economic landscape has fundamentally changed under the Trump administration, with the neutral interest rate potentially lowered to around 2.5%, nearly 2 percentage points below the current rate [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate remains relatively low at 4.3%, but the growth rate of new job creation has noticeably slowed [4]. - Tariff policies from the Trump administration are complicating the economic situation by affecting both inflation and employment [4]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Fed officials predict that by the end of 2025, inflation will still be 1 percentage point above the target level, which typically would trigger warnings for rate hikes, but the current context is different [4]. - The impact of tariffs on core PCE inflation is estimated to be around 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points, with the possibility that this effect may be a one-time price level change [4]. Group 4: Future Implications - The outcome of the Fed's internal debate will significantly influence not only the U.S. economy but also global market trends, as the Fed must balance employment protection with inflation control amid rising uncertainties [5].

Market Commentary - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with officials subsequently commenting on the decision [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan emphasized the necessity of significant rate cuts in the coming months to protect the labor market, citing that current rates are too high [2] - Milan's speech marked his first policy address since being appointed by Trump, where he discussed the decline of the neutral interest rate due to factors like tariffs, immigration restrictions, and tax policies [2] - Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Harmack expressed ongoing concerns about inflation, warning that officials should remain vigilant during rate cuts to prevent economic overheating [2] - Harmack noted that inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for over four years, and it may take several more years to return to the target level [2] Stock Market Activity - The Hong Kong Stock Connect recorded a net inflow of HKD 12.7 billion on Monday, with the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800.HK) seeing the highest net inflow of HKD 2.86 billion [2] - Alibaba (09988.HK) followed closely with significant net inflows, while Meituan (03690.HK) experienced the largest net outflow, amounting to HKD 385 million [2]

美联储官员们似乎有意给降息预期降温。 面对市场愈发激进的降息预期，多位美联储官员突然释放"鹰派"信号。其中，美国亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，目前没有太多理由进一步降息，预计2025年仅 会降息一次。美国圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆也对进一步降息表示怀疑。 有华尔街机构指出，目前美联储内部正沿着"2025年是否降息75个基点"这条线，分裂为两大观点鲜明的阵营。美联储主席鲍威尔此前也公开承认，联邦公开市场委 员会内部对后续的降息路径存在较大分歧。 美东时间9月22日，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）在纽约经济俱乐部活动上的书面发言中表示，当前利率过高，美联储需要在未来数月大幅降息以保护 美国劳动力市场。米兰对中性利率的预估值约为2.5%，明显低于美联储官员3%的中位预测。他还补充说，可能会在未来的美联储会议上继续投下反对票。 "不支持进一步降息" 美东时间9月22日，美国亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克在采访中表示，目前没有太多理由进一步降息，预计2025年仅会降息一次。 这意味着，博斯蒂克认为，美联储在今年剩余的两次议息会议上（10月、12月）均无需再降息。这大幅低于市场预期的降息幅度，交易员的押注显 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 23 日 铝：小幅调整 氧化铝：承压下行 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 期货研究 【综合快讯】 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20745 | -50 | -275 | 30 | 720 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20715 | l | ー | l | l | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2655 | -21 | -50 | 31 | 172 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 118717 | 11654 | -14512 | -24832 | 20728 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 236067 | -9800 | 53626 ...

行情回顾： 国际黄金周一（9月22日）大幅走高强势收涨，开盘价3687.48美元/盎司，最高价3736.27美元/盎司，最低价 3683.74美元/盎司，收盘价3736.03美元/盎司。 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为10.2%，降息25个基点的概率为89.8%。美联储12月 维持利率不变概率为1.7%，累计降息25个基点的概率为23.1%，累计降息50个基点的概率为75.3%。 技术面： 消息面： 美联储博斯蒂克表示，对通胀的担忧将使他暂时不愿宣布支持10月再次降息，尽管近几个月来经济风险已转向 对就业的更大担忧。博斯蒂克在接受采访时表示，在上周的美联储会议上，他预计2025年全年只会降息一次。 由于美联储上周降息，这表明其目前预计今年剩下的两次会议都不需要再次降息。博斯蒂克说："我对长期以 来过高的通胀感到担忧。"所以我今天不会采取行动或支持它，但我们会看到会发生什么。"博斯蒂克在6月的 会议上也预计2025年降息一次。他表示，他对上周降息的决定感到满意，因为与3个月前相比，经济面临的风 险在就业疲软和通胀上升之间更为均衡，当时通胀是首要任务。 克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克周一表示，在 ...