上证指数突破3800点，后市将如何走？在日前举办的2025排排网全球.首届对冲基金颁奖典礼暨家族办 公室颁奖典礼上，来自中国内地、中国香港及海外市场的百余位投资人共聚一堂，"把脉"当前及今后的 市场走向。 中欧瑞博(香港)董事长吴伟志表示，资本市场最大的规律是周期性。当下市场已经从一枝独放向百花齐 放发展，港股和A股的后市依然值得期待。"股市的赚钱效应已经逐渐形成，逐渐吸引场内的资金转变 思维，从熊市思维转向牛市思维，从不敢持仓到敢于持仓，从赚小钱到争取赚大钱。场外人的熊市思维 也会转牛市思维，从不关心股市到开始关心股市，到开始少量入市尝试，到有了赚钱的甜头加大入市， 这就是一个财富效应的正反馈的过程。"他认为，现在市场已经形成了很好的正反馈机制，牛市已经在 半路上了。 对于市场机会，吴伟志表示，不要为了追求完美而错失正确。"已经错过了春播的好时机，在夏天的时 候，仓位比追求完美的股票更重要。现在市场的水温已经从0度涨到了40、50度了，随着时间的推移， 水温会越来越高。千万不要在水即将沸腾的时候再来。" 他进一步表示，中国庞大的经济体量和增长速度在全球经济中具有举足轻重的地位，能够支撑一轮规模 可观、趋势较 ...

Group 1 - The current market rally is primarily driven by institutional investors rather than retail investors, with a focus on industrial trends and earnings [2] - The market's settlement funds relative to circulating market value remain in a reasonable range, indicating ongoing profit accumulation [2] - Future market performance will depend on new allocation cues rather than just liquidity and abundant funds [2] Group 2 - Recent market highs are supported by ample liquidity, with positive signals from the movement of household deposits indicating improved domestic liquidity [3] - The consensus on an upward market trend is strengthening, with key factors such as domestic fundamentals and liquidity showing positive changes [3] - Strategic allocations should focus on sectors like AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, military, and large financial institutions [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance suggests a likely interest rate cut in September, which may improve dollar liquidity and benefit Hong Kong stocks [4] - The current market phase is characterized by a funding-driven environment, with a focus on sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and domestic AI [4] - Analysts have revised upward profit forecasts for various sectors, indicating potential strong performance in those areas [4] Group 4 - The market is experiencing a "healthy bull" phase, with a focus on technology growth leading the way [9] - There are opportunities in low-valuation cyclical sectors that align with positive economic expectations [9] - Key areas for investment include Hong Kong internet, semiconductor equipment, software applications, and new consumption [9] Group 5 - The A-share market is expected to maintain an optimistic outlook, with liquidity indicators still favorable for equities [6] - Investment strategies should focus on high-growth sectors like semiconductor materials and biomedicine, while avoiding lagging industries [6] - The market sentiment is improving but has not reached overly optimistic levels seen in previous bull markets [6] Group 6 - The current bull market is supported by various sources of incremental capital, including long-term funds and active private equity [12] - The "migration of deposits" trend may become a significant source of new capital for the market [12] - Focus areas for investment should include new technologies and growth sectors, such as domestic AI applications and robotics [12]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has reached a historic moment with daily trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan, indicating a bullish market trend driven by factors such as liquidity easing and foreign capital inflow [1][5]. Trading Volume and Market Activity - On August 25, 2025, the A-share market's trading volume surpassed 3 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase from the previous trading day by over 320 billion yuan [1][2]. - The A-share market has seen a continuous increase in trading volume, with 63 consecutive trading days exceeding 1 trillion yuan and 9 consecutive days surpassing 2 trillion yuan, setting new historical records [2][3]. Historical Trading Volume Data - As of August 25, 2025, there have been 35 days in A-share history where daily trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan, with 12 days in 2025 and 18 days in 2024 [3][4]. Market Performance - Major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index have shown positive performance, with increases of 1.34% and over 2% respectively on the same day [1][2]. - The technology sector, particularly computing hardware stocks, has seen significant gains, with companies like Shenghong Technology and Shunyi Electronics reaching historical highs [5]. Investor Sentiment and New Accounts - There has been a notable increase in new A-share accounts, with 1.9636 million new accounts opened in July 2025, a 71% increase compared to the same period last year [8]. - International capital is increasingly flowing into the Chinese market, with a significant rise in Korean retail investors' holdings in Chinese stocks, growing nearly 30% from the end of 2024 [8]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest a continued bullish outlook for the short term, although they caution that bull market cycles typically do not exceed one year [9]. - The market is expected to benefit from a recovery in producer price index (PPI) and supportive liquidity and policy expectations, potentially leading to a "double hit" in profitability and valuation expansion [10].

21世纪经济报道 记者 叶麦穗 针对在券商开户时首次绑定中国银行借记卡、成功签约第三方存管的客户，可参与一次抽奖，最高可抽 取188元的支付宝红包权益。 除了中国银行，招商银行在APP首页，以滚动头条的方式，加大业务宣传，推广活动的主题为"银证新 启，财富进阶"，该行与7家券商深度合作，分别是招商证券、国信证券、中金财富、东方证券、华泰证 券、国投证券、长江证券。 兴业银行的银证引流布局则分布在不同的页面。在财富页面，展现了两家券商的开户滚动条，分别是兴 业证券和华福证券；而在专门的银证开户页面，同样提供了数十家券商的开户链接。 在引流开户的同时，银行也为客户的"休市资金"作出规划和安排，借"持币待投、随时进场""休市闲钱 不休息"等，吸引客户了解该行自营理财产品。 有银行理财客户经理表示："这其实对于银行来说也是双赢，证券开户指标的背后是中间业务收入的增 长机会。客户开通第三方存管之后，进入证券账户的资金都是通过银行卡，既能帮助老客户增加黏性， 也能给新客户提供新的服务，挖掘客户的有效需求。" 市场行情火热，指数涨到眩晕，上证综指轻松站上3800点，各路资金跑步入场。 据上交所官网数据显示，2025年7月， ...

杨德龙 | 立方大家谈专栏作者 美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表了鸽派讲话，已经明确9月份降息的可能性非常 大。他的表态此前一直非常谨慎，从未明确暗示9月份会降息，但当前美国非农就业数据出现下降，特 别是美国劳工统计局大幅下调了5月份和6月份的就业数据，让特朗普非常恼火，解雇了美国劳工统计局 局长。 此外，特朗普近期又对另一位美联储理事发起免职威胁，试图换上支持其降息的理事。这些举动实际上 都是在给鲍威尔施加压力。鲍威尔看到7月美国CPI同比增速已经降至2.7%，通胀相对不高，而经济数 据确实出现明显下降，此时若仍不降息显得不近人情，甚至会被视为过于顽固，因此这次他发表了鸽派 言论，让市场普遍相信9月份美联储降息25个基点。 年底之前还有两次议息会议，美联储可能每次都会降25个基点，全年或能降三次息，累计降75个基点。 按照上述假设，美国联邦基准利率就会从4.25%~4.5%降至3.5%~3.75%，进入"三字头"，这将大大减轻 美国政府的还债压力，同时对全球央行形成示范效应。 美联储被视为"世界央行"，其一举一动都会对全球央行的举措产生影响，一旦开启降息周期，将带动更 多央行跟随。中国央行也将 ...

知名经济学家盘和林向21财经·南财快讯记者表示，成交额突破3万亿说明A股已处牛市，流动性宽松、外汇回流及储蓄搬家都是推高市场成交额的因素。 盘和林强调，A股存在较为明显的周期轮动，本轮牛市"不是来早，而是来晚"。 板块方面，午后算力硬件股涨势扩大，胜宏科技（300476）、生益电子双双创历史新高，多股涨停。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 == | | --- | --- | --- | | 长芯博创 | 115.88 | 13.86% | | 300548.SZ | | | | 中际旭创 | 316.50 | 13.48% | | 300308.SZ | | | | 菲菱科思 | 117.15 | 13.23% | | 301191.SZ | | | | 长江通信 | 29.66 | 10.01% | | 600345.SH | | | | 剑桥科技 | 72.88 | 10.01% | | 603083.SH | | | | 长飞米纤 | 64.88 | 10.00% | | 601869.SH | | | | 仕佳光子 | 71.17 | 9.90% | | 688313.SH | | | | 新易盛 ...

2025年8月25日，A股市场再度迎来历史性时刻，成交金额再次突破3万亿元，上一次是去年10月8日。 事实上，今日开盘不足半小时，成交额已连续第63个交易日突破1万亿元，较前一交易日同期放量超 3200亿元。当前，A股已连续9个交易日成交额突破2万亿元，刷新历史纪录。 经济学家、新质未来研究院院长张奥平向21财经·南财快讯记者表示，当前市场较高的成交额，是政策 与市场协同共振的结果。一方面，居民储蓄正加速向资本市场转移；另一方面，外资持续流入也为市场 注入活力。但他同时提醒，对于投资而言，需谨慎乐观，因新一轮行情仍有待经济基本面、企业盈利等 数据验证。 截至2025年8月25日，A股历史上单日成交额超2万亿元的天数共35天，其中2024年占18天，2025年占12 天，2015年占5天。这一数据反映出近期市场活跃度的显著提升。 | A股成交额超2万亿交易日一览 | | | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 金额(亿元) | | 2024-10-08 | 34, 835. 43 | | 2025-08-25 | 超3万亿 | | 2024-10-09 | 29, 665. 53 | | 2025-08- ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading stocks in a bull market and avoiding distractions from less significant stocks, suggesting that a multi-line structure is essential for the second phase of a bull market [1]. Group 1 - The bull market is characterized by a concentration of hot money in a few leading sectors and stocks, with significant price movements observed in industries such as semiconductor, PCB, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1]. - The market sentiment has shifted from a fluctuating state to a more stable and positive range, indicating a healthy market environment since June [1]. - The article advises investors to maintain a broad perspective and focus on the direction of the market rather than getting caught up in the minutiae of stock selection [1][3]. Group 2 - The article notes that predicting daily stock movements is challenging, and it is more effective to concentrate on the details of leading stocks as long as they do not break critical support levels [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index has surged past the 3700 and 3800 points, reaching a 10-year high, driven by a recovery in risk appetite and a rebalancing of valuation between stocks and bonds [1][5][8] - The market is experiencing a second phase of a bull market, with significant participation from retail investors, private equity, and foreign capital, leading to increased liquidity and trading volume [2][5][12] - The shift from a "barbell strategy" to a more balanced investment approach is confirmed, as sectors like technology and domestic semiconductor industries gain traction [5][10][22] Group 2 - Recent behavior of different types of incremental capital shows that retail investors are increasingly optimistic about the bull market, with a notable rise in discussions and investments in ETFs [14][17] - The Federal Reserve's signals regarding potential interest rate cuts have improved the liquidity environment, particularly benefiting Hong Kong stocks, which are now seen as more attractive compared to A-shares [3][26] - The current bull market is still in its second phase, with many indicators suggesting that there is significant room for growth compared to previous bull market peaks [4][25][27]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a bullish trend, with major indices opening high and the brokerage sector showing strength, highlighted by significant gains in stocks like Xiangcai Co., which rose over 7% [1] - The A-share index has surpassed 3,800 points, with trading volume exceeding 20 trillion yuan for eight consecutive trading days, indicating strong market liquidity that benefits the brokerage sector's performance [1] - A total of 27 listed brokerages have reported mid-year earnings forecasts, showing a year-on-year net profit growth of 63.0% to 77.2% for the first half of the year [1] Group 2 - The current monetary policy remains moderately loose, and with the support of state-owned entities and increased long-term capital allocation to equities, there is still potential for margin financing balances to rise, which is favorable for brokerage businesses [1] - Tianhong Fund reiterates its previous view that the brokerage sector acts as a market initiator, with recent stock movements potentially indicating future market trends; the current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the brokerage sector is 1.59x, positioned at the 47.65% percentile over the past decade, suggesting a historical low valuation with room for recovery [1] - Investment opportunities in the brokerage sector are recommended, specifically focusing on securities ETFs like 159841 and off-market C-class funds like 008591, to capitalize on the bullish market conditions [1]