Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures are experiencing a slight decline, with the main contract reported at 789.0 yuan, down 0.44% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - New Century Futures suggests a strategy of going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts, indicating a focus on "anti-involution and stable growth" [1] - Dongwu Futures highlights a near-term strength in iron ore due to low shipments and high steel mill profits, while cautioning about long-term concerns due to new capacity releases [2] - Donghai Futures notes that iron ore prices are expected to remain in a range-bound trading pattern, with limited demand growth anticipated [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global iron ore shipments totaled 32.09 million tons, an increase of 918,000 tons month-on-month, indicating a continued loose supply [1] - Recent data shows a slight decrease in iron water production, with a drop of 0.21 million tons to 2.4223 million tons, yet remaining at a high level [1] - The upcoming political bureau meeting is expected to influence macroeconomic policies, with a focus on potential production cuts in the steel sector [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the construction industry [1] Core Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment growth remains robust, with special bond issuance accelerating to support major projects [3][6] - Real estate investment and sales are under pressure, but the decline in new construction and completion has narrowed [3][44] - The construction sector is experiencing a slight increase in fund holdings, indicating a low allocation compared to standard benchmarks [3][65] Summary by Sections Special Bond Issuance - The pace of special bond issuance has accelerated in 2025, with a total of 2.16 trillion yuan issued in the first half of the year, a 45% year-on-year increase [6] - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds this year, focusing on infrastructure and housing projects [6] Infrastructure Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 24.87 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [3][27] - Broad infrastructure investment growth was 8.9%, while narrow infrastructure investment growth was 4.6% [30] - Investment in electricity, heat, gas, and water supply grew by 22.8%, while transportation and storage investment increased by 5.6% [3][35] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment totaled 46.66 billion yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year, with sales area declining by 3.5% [44] - New construction area decreased by 20.0%, but the decline rate has narrowed [46] - The policy measures are expected to improve the supply-demand structure in the real estate market [3][44] Fund Holdings in Construction - As of Q2 2025, the fund holdings in the construction sector accounted for 0.43% of the total market, slightly up from the previous quarter [65] - The construction sector remains underweight compared to the standard allocation ratio of 1.77% [65] - Institutional investors are increasingly favoring segments such as housing construction, decoration, and engineering consulting [65][71]

随着国家发改委提出"实施新一轮钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大重点行业的稳增长工作方案"，旨 在通过调结构、优供给和淘汰落后产能来推动这些关键领域的健康发展，市场对于石化行业的前景也变 得更为乐观。 此外，国家发展改革委与市场监管总局已联合起草《中华人民共和国价格法修正草案（征求意见 稿）》，草案内容显示，监管机构将通过完善低价倾销的认定标准、明确禁止利用算法从事不正当价格 行为等手段，加大对非理性价格战的治理力度。 市场观点认为，国家针对"反内卷"、稳增长持续发声，多项与老旧装置摸底评估相关的文件陆续发布， 以及工信部即将推出石化化工行业稳增长工作方案，有望推动落后产能淘汰、引领行业健康发展。行业 供给端竞争格局有望迎来优化，炼化整体竞争格局有望迎来改善，先进产能竞争优势或将进一步凸显， 相关头部企业有望持续受益。 7月29日，摩根士丹利发布报告，将万华化学（600309）和荣盛石化（002493）的评级上调，此次评级 上调反映了摩根士丹利对两家公司未来表现的积极预期。 摩根士丹利报告指出，中国的"反内卷"政策将主要惠及国有炼厂及现有超大型民营炼厂，因其产能更具 规模效应与效率优势，国内炼油行业的供需格局有 ...

Group 1 - The steel industry is expected to maintain stable demand due to a series of "stabilizing growth" policies, with support from real estate stabilization, steady infrastructure investment, ongoing manufacturing development, and high steel exports [1] - The supply of steel is tightening under the expectation of supply-side policies, leading to a stronger industry concentration, which is likely to keep the overall supply-demand situation stable [1] - High-end steel products, benefiting from energy cycles, domestic substitution, and high barriers to entry in high-value-added manufacturing, are expected to gain significantly [1] Group 2 - Current profits for common steel are considerable, and under the backdrop of "anti-involution" in the industry, profits per ton of steel may continue to expand, indicating significant improvement potential for common steel companies [1] - The steel ETF (515210) tracks the CSI Steel Index (930606), which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the steel industry, covering representative enterprises across the steel production, processing, and sales sectors [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Steel ETF Connect A (008189) and Guotai CSI Steel ETF Connect C (008190) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - After continuous surges in the futures market, market sentiment has been released. Coupled with exchange rule restrictions, coal prices lack upward momentum. In the short term, price fluctuations will intensify, and it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [4] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, market sentiment gradually cooled. Coal and coke futures prices hit the daily limit during the session, and the weak trend continued at night. The spot market remained stable for the time being, and quotes for some port resources adjusted downward following the futures market. Last weekend, coke producers initiated the fourth round of coke price hikes, and some steel mills have accepted them [3] - Since July, a series of positive news such as "anti - involution" and "stable growth" have stimulated the market. Coupled with improved supply - demand fundamentals and the National Energy Administration's inspection of coal mine over - production, the market sentiment to buy has exploded, and coal prices have soared continuously, with suspected excessive speculation. Last Friday after the session, the exchange adjusted the opening limits for coking coal. The daily opening volume of the JM2509 contract was reduced from no more than 2000 lots to no more than 500 lots [3] Fundamental Analysis - In terms of fundamentals, coal mines in major production areas have continued the复产 rhythm. Although there are still sporadic production suspensions and cuts in some areas, overall production has continued to increase slightly. The speculative replenishment demand in the market has been concentratedly released, and coking coal in some production areas is in short supply, with mine - end inventories continuously decreasing [4] - On the demand side, recently, coking plants and steel mills have accelerated their raw material replenishment. The available days of coking coal inventory in factories have rebounded from a low level. Last week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mill blast furnaces remained at around 2.42 million tons, supporting raw material demand [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting may signal a rate cut in September, which could support gold prices due to expectations of increased liquidity [1][2] - The article highlights that as trade negotiations between the US and multiple countries progress, tariff risks are diminishing, which may positively impact market sentiment and industrial metal prices [1][2] - It notes that the macroeconomic environment is expected to influence industrial metal prices significantly, especially with key domestic meetings and trade talks scheduled for July [1][2] Group 2 - In the precious metals sector, the anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut is likely to support gold prices, especially with ongoing trade negotiations and potential tariff adjustments [2] - The industrial metals market is currently experiencing a seasonal slowdown, with weak demand and pressure on processing rates for metals like copper and aluminum, although macroeconomic factors may provide some support [2] - The article emphasizes that if domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and promoting internal demand continue to be effective, alongside positive developments in trade negotiations and signals from the Federal Reserve, industrial metal prices could see significant support [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a bull phase, with significant losses reported among short sellers in commodity and stock index futures. The article suggests that the most certain investment opportunities in a bull market are either in leading sectors or in severely undervalued stocks [2]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The article emphasizes that low-priced stocks tend to be driven up to reasonable levels during a bull market, indicating that underperforming sectors may see substantial gains due to ongoing liquidity and policy support [2]. - The upcoming major meetings are expected to enhance expectations for "stabilizing growth," which may provide considerable policy space for undervalued industries [2]. Group 2: ETF Analysis - The article utilizes the net value percentile calculation method to assess which sectors are currently in a state of severe undervaluation [3]. - A table is provided showing various ETFs, their net value percentiles since 2023 and 2024, and their performance in 2025, highlighting sectors like photovoltaic, alcohol, and real estate [7]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The photovoltaic sector is identified as particularly undervalued, with ETFs like the photovoltaic ETF (515790.SH) and new energy ETF (516160.SH) showing significant declines. The sector's performance is closely tied to government policies aimed at stabilizing growth [9][10]. - The alcohol sector, particularly the alcohol ETF (512690.SH), is also noted for being in a state of decline, with a lack of clear catalysts for recovery until consumer data improves [20][21]. - The real estate sector shows signs of divergence, with the real estate ETF (159707.SZ) experiencing intermittent policy-driven rallies but ultimately returning to lower levels [25][26]. Group 4: Medical and Pharmaceutical Sector - The medical and pharmaceutical sectors are highlighted as being collectively undervalued, with various ETFs like the biopharmaceutical ETF (159859.SZ) showing potential for recovery due to recent policy shifts regarding procurement practices [33][35]. - The medical ETF (512170.SH) is also mentioned as being in a relatively low valuation position, with a modest performance outlook [39]. Group 5: Commodity and Chemical Sectors - The coal sector has seen a significant price drop but is experiencing a rebound due to rising prices in coking coal and coke futures, with the coal ETF (515220.SH) reflecting this trend [43][45]. - The chemical sector is noted for its broad product range and recent price increases in lithium carbonate, with the chemical ETF (159870.SZ) positioned as relatively undervalued [49][54]. Conclusion - The article concludes that sectors such as chemicals, biopharmaceuticals, medical, alcohol, and photovoltaic are currently in a state of severe undervaluation, presenting potential investment opportunities for discerning investors [56].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - After continuous rallies in the futures price of coking coal, market sentiment has been released, and with exchange rule restrictions, coal prices lack the momentum to rise. In the short - term, price fluctuations will intensify, and it is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content - **Market Performance**: Last week, affected by coal market policies on over - production verification, the coking coal futures price soared with a weekly increase of over 35%, and the price started to decline on the night session of last Friday. The spot market was also strong, with the coking price completing the third round of increase and coke enterprises starting the fourth round during the weekend. Since July, a series of positive news and improved supply - demand fundamentals led to a continuous sharp rise in coal prices, but after the exchange restricted the daily opening volume of the JM2509 contract on Friday, the coking coal price dropped significantly at night [2] - **Fundamentals**: Main coal - producing areas continued the resumption of production. Although there were still sporadic production halts and cuts in some regions, overall output continued to increase slightly. Speculative replenishment demand was released, causing a supply - shortage situation in some areas and a continuous decline in mine - end inventory. On the demand side, coking plants and steel mills accelerated raw material replenishment, and the available days of coking coal inventory in factories rebounded from a low level. Last week, the average daily pig iron output of steel mill blast furnaces was maintained at around 2.42 million tons, supporting raw material demand [3]

Group 1 - The report highlights increased volatility in commodity prices, with a positive outlook for industry leaders benefiting from high operating rates and long-term contracts despite recent price corrections [6][8] - In the first half of 2025, the equipment manufacturing industry showed robust growth, with industrial value-added increasing by 10.2% year-on-year, outpacing overall industrial growth [11][12] - The capital market has seen a significant recovery, with brokerage firms reporting a 94% year-on-year increase in net profits for the first half of 2025, driven by heightened market activity and policy support [16][17] Group 2 - The report notes that the overall public budget revenue in the first half of 2025 decreased by 0.3%, with tax revenue down by 1.2% while non-tax revenue increased by 3.7% [21] - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 69 billion yuan in special bonds to support the consumption of old goods, indicating government efforts to stimulate consumer spending [22] - The report mentions that the insurance industry is facing new challenges, with the standard interest rate for ordinary life insurance products set at 1.99% for Q2 2025, reflecting ongoing market adjustments [26][27]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][21]. Core Viewpoints - The cement industry is experiencing a recovery opportunity driven by the dual logic of "anti-involution" and "stabilizing growth" [1][10]. - The supply side is expected to improve as the industry collectively addresses overcapacity issues through policy guidance and collaboration among enterprises [2][8]. - The demand side is bolstered by significant infrastructure projects, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, which is projected to generate substantial cement demand in Tibet [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Cement Industry - The cement industry is witnessing a phase of supply-side improvement due to the government's focus on preventing "involution" and the coordinated efforts of leading companies to reduce overproduction [2]. - By the end of 2023, the designed capacity for new dry-process cement clinker in China is 1.84 billion tons, while actual capacity exceeds 2.1 billion tons, resulting in an overproduction rate of over 14% [2]. - The implementation of policies such as the capacity replacement measures is expected to lead to a significant reduction in actual production capacity, with a net decrease of 12.1 million tons achieved by April 2025 [2]. 2. Demand Side - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to create a demand for 30-35 million tons of cement, significantly boosting the local market in Tibet [10]. - Infrastructure investment in water management has shown strong growth, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 15.4% as of June 2025, indicating robust support for economic stability [11]. 3. Price and Profitability - The cement industry's profitability is expected to improve, with a projected profit of 15-20 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, a significant turnaround from a loss of 1.1 billion yuan in the previous year [7]. - The average price of cement in the first quarter of 2025 is 397 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.3% due to lower coal prices and rising cement prices [7]. 4. Related Industries - The photovoltaic glass industry is facing challenges due to overcapacity and price competition, leading to a collective 30% production cut by major manufacturers [8]. - The waterproofing industry is also experiencing a collective price increase among leading companies to combat low-price competition and rising costs [9].