Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The government shutdown has lasted a record 38 days, with significant economic impacts that were underestimated initially [1] - The White House's economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, indicated that the GDP growth for Q4 may be halved from the original expectation of at least 3% [1] - The tourism and leisure sectors are among the hardest hit, with potential short-term recession if airline travel continues to decline [1] - The construction sector is also facing challenges, with construction projects slowing down, indicating the shutdown's effects are spreading from federal to private sectors [1] Labor Market and Economic Recovery - There is a noted degree of weakness in the labor market, attributed to the uncertainty caused by the prolonged government shutdown [2] - Hassett expressed optimism that the U.S. economy could rebound quickly once the government reopens [3] - Discontent was voiced regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's suggestion of a potential pause in interest rate cuts, highlighting ongoing tensions between the Trump administration and the Fed on monetary policy [3] - Despite the negative impacts of the shutdown, Hassett did not classify any economic sector as being in recession, indicating some internal differences in economic assessments within the White House [3]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Milan is scheduled to deliver a speech regarding stablecoins and monetary policy at approximately 3 PM Eastern Time [1] Group 1 - The speech will focus on the implications of stablecoins within the context of current monetary policy [1]

Core Insights - Kenya's inflation rate for October 2025 stands at 4.6% year-on-year, unchanged from September, with a month-on-month inflation rate of 0.2% [1] - The government's medium-term inflation target range is set between 2.5% and 7.5% [1] - The Central Bank of Kenya has reduced the benchmark lending rate from 9.50% to 9.25% in October, indicating room for further monetary policy easing as inflation remains within the target range [1]

新华财经北京11月7日电美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊（Philip Jefferson）表示，鉴于潜在的联邦政府停摆 风险可能影响关键经济数据的发布，其未来在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上的投票意向将采 取"逐次会议决定"的方式。 杰斐逊特别提及政府停摆对货币政策决策构成的潜在干扰。若财政僵局导致劳工统计局、商务部等机构 暂停运作，将造成就业、消费及生产等关键数据缺失，进而削弱美联储基于数据驱动的决策基础。在此 背景下，其"逐会评估"的立场凸显了政策制定者对信息完整性的高度依赖。 杰斐逊指出，过去几个月整体经济表现相对平稳，"变化不大"，基本通胀指标已显现朝向美联储2%长 期目标迈进。但他强调，近期通胀缺乏进一步实质性进展，部分原因可能与关税政策有关。 （文章来源：新华财经） 在利率政策方面，杰斐逊表示，当前政策利率水平"更接近中性"，因此主张以谨慎和渐进的方式推进后 续调整。他确认自己支持了10月FOMC会议作出的降息决定，并重申在政策路径上保持灵活性的重要 性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve should adopt a more cautious approach in future policy actions as interest rates are closer to neutral levels, which neither restrict nor stimulate the economy [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - Current interest rates have a "slightly restrictive" impact on the economy, and a slowdown in policy actions is deemed wise as the Fed approaches neutral rates [1] - The overall economic situation in the U.S. has not changed significantly in recent months, characterized by "moderate growth" and a "gradual cooling" labor market [1] - Inflation rates are roughly stable compared to a year ago, influenced by tariff policies from the Trump administration, with signs indicating core inflation may be moving towards the Fed's 2% target [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have expressed differing views on the monetary policy outlook since the recent interest rate decision [2] - San Francisco Fed President Daly supports the recent 25 basis point cut and suggests further slight reductions in policy rates are appropriate given the cooling labor market [2] - New York Fed President Williams believes the market's estimate of "neutral rates" may be too high, indicating room for further rate cuts without undermining inflation control [2] - St. Louis Fed President Bullard sees the past year's easing measures as necessary for labor market support, expecting 50 to 75 basis points of policy adjustment space [2] Group 3: Diverging Views on Rate Cuts - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee has adopted a more hawkish stance, indicating a higher threshold for supporting rate cuts and cautioning against premature easing due to persistent inflation [3] - Cleveland Fed President Mester emphasizes that current inflation remains "too high," suggesting that risks to the economy outweigh the labor market slowdown, and further easing may be premature [3] - Mester anticipates that inflation may not reach the Fed's 2% target until 2026 or later, indicating a prolonged period without achieving price stability [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the payment pressure may increase compared to October, but with the central bank's active support, the risk of tightened funds is limited. The DR007 is expected to fluctuate between 1.4 - 1.5%. [3][4][66] - The central bank has restarted bond - buying, and considering the current operation ideas of maintaining sufficient liquidity, the funds are expected to remain stable. [4][66] 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1 10 - Month Review of Fundamentals and Liquidity: Active Early - Season Investment, Stable Central Level 3.1.1 Review of Fundamentals: Narrow - Range Fluctuation of Funds - In October 2025, the overnight fund fluctuation range narrowed compared to the previous month, with the overnight fund fluctuating around 1.31% at the beginning of the month and reaching a maximum of 1.47% in the late month. The 7D fund fluctuation range widened, fluctuating around 1.43% from the beginning to the middle of the month and reaching a maximum of 1.58% at the end of the month. There was no inversion between overnight and 7D funds this month. [10][11] - At the beginning of the month, the central bank conducted a 3M repurchase reverse repurchase of 1.1 trillion yuan to ease the pressure of large - scale reverse repurchase maturities. In the middle of the month, with limited payment pressure, the central bank continued to support, and the fund prices remained stable. At the end of the month, affected by the tax period and other factors, the funds faced pressure, but the MLF actively operated and bond - buying was restarted, and the liquidity gradually stabilized. [11] - In terms of fund stratification, the stratification pressure widened and then slightly narrowed in October, and the spread was at a seasonal low. In terms of fund volatility, the volatility of overnight and 7D funds was at a seasonal low. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase in October increased slightly compared to the previous month, with a monthly total of around 131 trillion yuan. [16][19][20] - In terms of lending behavior, the net lending scale of state - owned banks first increased and then decreased, the net lending of joint - stock banks was at a seasonal low, and the net lending of money market funds fluctuated greatly. [23] 3.1.2 Review of Liquidity: Low Gap Pressure in October, Active Central Bank Investment - **Liquidity Aggregate**: In October, the base money decreased by about 1.1 trillion yuan. After considering factors such as reserve release and cash withdrawal, the excess reserve at the end of the month decreased by about 90 billion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio was about 1.4%, and the narrow - sense excess reserve level after deducting reverse repurchase was about 0.66%, showing obvious improvement. [2][31] - **Open - Market Operations**: In October, the central bank's open - market operations recovered steadily. The reverse repurchase was net - recovered by 59.53 billion yuan, the MLF was net - invested by 20 billion yuan, the pledged reverse repurchase was net - invested by 40 billion yuan, and the central bank net - bought 2 billion yuan of national bonds at the end of the month. The 1 - month treasury deposit was 12 billion yuan, and 15 billion yuan matured. [36][38][40] 3.2 October Monetary Policy Tracking: Resumption of National Bond Trading, Construction of a Comprehensive Macro - Prudential Management System - In October 2025, the central bank announced the resumption of open - market national bond trading and the construction of a scientific and stable monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro - prudential management system. The central bank affirmed the reasonable operating range of the bond market at 1.75 - 1.85% and emphasized the improvement of the macro - prudential management system and the prevention and disposal mechanism of systematic financial risks. [2][43] - The central bank's monetary policy actions in October included: learning the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee to build a scientific and stable monetary policy system; reporting on the financial work situation and affirming the operating range of the 10 - year national bond; announcing the resumption of open - market national bond trading at the Financial Street Forum; and emphasizing the improvement of the macro - prudential management system on multiple occasions. [48][49][50] 3.3 November Gap Forecast: Restart of Bond - Buying, Continued Loose Trend 3.3.1 Rigid Gap: Small Consumption of Excess Reserves by Reserve Requirements, Large Maturity of MLF - In November, the increase in general deposits may consume about 12 billion yuan of excess reserves. The MLF matures at 90 billion yuan, and the pledged reverse repurchase matures at 1 trillion yuan (70 billion yuan for 3M and 30 billion yuan for 6M), with the 3M term renewed for 70 billion yuan on November 5th. [55] 3.3.2 Exogenous Shocks: Cash Withdrawal and Non - Financial Institution Deposits Consume Liquidity at the End of the Year - In November, cash withdrawal may consume about 15 billion yuan of excess reserves, and non - financial institution deposits may consume about 3 billion yuan of excess reserves. [60] 3.3.3 Fiscal Factors: Accelerated Year - End Expenditure, Possible Decrease in Government Deposits - In November, considering factors such as tax payments, government bond issuance, and fiscal expenditures, government deposits may release about 13 billion yuan of liquidity. [61] 3.3.4 Comprehensive Judgment: Central Bank Restarts Bond - Buying, Funds in November May Remain Stable - In November, the monthly liquidity gap may be around 2 trillion yuan, and the overall fund gap pressure may be at a seasonal high. However, with the central bank's bond - buying restart and the maintenance of sufficient liquidity, the DR007 is expected to fluctuate between 1.4 - 1.5%. [3][66] - The central bank may use national bond trading to partially replace MLF and pledged reverse repurchase. The central bank's current bond - holding ratio in the national bond market is about 6%, and there is still room for further bond - buying. Attention should be paid to the scale and rhythm of bond - buying. [4][70]

Group 1 - Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Harmack expressed ongoing concerns about high inflation levels, emphasizing that monetary policy should continue to focus on suppressing inflation [1][3] - Harmack noted that the current interest rate range is close to her estimate of the neutral rate, which neither stimulates nor suppresses economic growth, and she is more concerned about inflation than employment [5] - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points, marking the second rate cut of the year, after maintaining rates for the first eight months to assess the impact of policy adjustments on the economy [3][5] Group 2 - Harmack highlighted that businesses are facing tough decisions regarding cost management, particularly in relation to rising health and property insurance costs, as well as electricity expenses [6] - A survey from the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank indicated that businesses with higher reliance on imports are more likely to pass on cost pressures to consumers, with over two-thirds of construction firms planning to transfer most or all tariff-related cost increases to clients [5][6] - Harmack observed that inflation indicators, particularly in core services excluding housing, have shown persistent pressure, suggesting that inflation may be more enduring than anticipated [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has led to significant challenges for federal employees, with many struggling to make ends meet while the economy shows resilience in consumer spending and job growth [1][3][11] - Political deadlock between Democrats and Republicans over healthcare subsidies has resulted in a prolonged budget impasse, negatively impacting public services and costing the government billions [3][5][15] - Despite the political turmoil, U.S. stock markets are reaching new highs, driven by strong economic data and consumer confidence, indicating that investors are focusing on economic fundamentals rather than political issues [5][11][14] Group 2 - The economic divide is evident globally, with European markets benefiting from low valuations and stable monetary policy, while Japan faces declines due to previous rapid gains and a weak yen [7] - The Federal Reserve is under pressure to navigate monetary policy amidst strong employment data and ongoing inflation concerns, leading to internal disagreements on whether further rate cuts are necessary [9][15] - The current situation reflects a tension between a functioning consumer market and a politically paralyzed government, raising concerns about the sustainability of this balance in the long term [11][12][14]

图为十债主力合约日线 11月4日，美国国会参议院再次未能通过联邦政府临时拨款法案。美国国会预算办公室称，此次"停摆"可能使美国第四季度经济增速降低多达2个百分点。若 僵局延续至感恩节当周，约140亿美元的经济损失将彻底无法挽回。不过美国10月ADP就业人数增加4.2万人，大幅超过预期，ISM服务业PMI上升2.4点至 52.4，也创8个月新高。10月底美联储如期降息25个基点后，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，12月是否进一步降息"远非已成定局"，加上偏强的就业和服务数据， 12月美联储降息概率下降，美债收益率回升。 预计央行将保持支持性的货币政策，后续国债买卖等操作将进一步加大，市场资金面处于合理充裕水平。 11月份以来，国债期货价格维持震荡，10年期国债收益率维持在1.8%附近。 央行发布的各项工具流动性投放情况显示，10月份公开市场国债买卖净投放200亿元，表明今年1月份以来暂停的国债买卖操作已恢复。同时，央行于11月5 日开展7000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购操作，有利于向市场投放长期流动性，稳定市场预期。 从市场资金利率看，最新DR007和Shibor1周利率分别为1.4378%和1.421%，较10月末分别回 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on November 7, 2025, including weak oscillations for stock index futures, iron ore, crude oil, PTA, PVC, and soybean meal futures; shock consolidation for gold and silver futures; and wide - range oscillations for some other futures contracts [2][3][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro News and Trading Tips - China emphasizes the construction of Hainan Free Trade Port, promotes trade and investment liberalization, and responds to the issue of Nexperia. The Chinese government also conducts reverse repurchase operations and adjusts administrative divisions. In the US, Trump reaches an agreement on GLP - 1 diet pills, and the employment situation is severe, leading to an increase in interest - rate cut expectations. The US government shutdown affects inflation data and the aviation industry. The UK central bank maintains the interest rate, and the expectation of an interest - rate cut in December increases [8][9][10]. - On November 6, international precious - metal futures generally closed down, oil prices declined, and most London base metals rose. Indonesia stops approving applications for nickel ore processing plants, and Saudi Aramco lowers the price of crude oil sold to Asia [10][11]. 2. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On November 6, major stock - index futures contracts such as IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 showed different degrees of increase. The A - share market rose, with an increase in trading volume. MSCI adjusted its index, and Hong Kong stocks also rose. US and European stock markets generally fell [12][13][14][15][16][17]. - It is expected that on November 7, stock - index futures will show weak oscillations, and in November 2025, they will likely have wide - range oscillations [17][18]. Treasury Bond Futures - On November 6, ten - year and thirty - year treasury - bond futures contracts generally declined. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds. It is expected that on November 7, ten - year and thirty - year treasury - bond futures contracts will have wide - range oscillations [34][35][36][38][39]. Precious - Metal Futures - On November 6, gold and silver futures contracts rose. It is expected that in November 2025, the continuous main contracts of gold and silver futures will have wide - range oscillations, and on November 7, they will show shock consolidation [40][48][49]. Base - Metal Futures - On November 6, copper, aluminum, alumina, and carbon - lithium futures contracts showed different degrees of increase. It is expected that in November 2025, copper, aluminum, and carbon - lithium futures will have wide - range oscillations, and alumina futures will have weak wide - range oscillations. On November 7, copper and alumina futures will have weak oscillations, and aluminum futures will have wide - range oscillations and attempt to break through resistance levels [53][59][63][67][68]. Building - Material and Energy - Chemical Futures - On November 6, futures contracts such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, PTA, PVC, methanol, and soybean meal showed different trends. It is expected that in November 2025, most of these futures will have wide - range oscillations. On November 7, rebar, glass, and soda - ash futures will show shock consolidation; hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, crude oil, PTA, PVC, methanol, and soybean meal futures will have weak oscillations; and carbon - lithium futures will have strong oscillations [70][76][79][84][87][91][95][98][101][103][104].