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广发早知道:汇总版-20250819
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 02:47
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the report presents a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping futures, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. Different markets show diverse trends and are influenced by a variety of factors such as policy, supply - demand relationships, and international events. For example, the stock index futures market is boosted by TMT sectors and policy expectations; the treasury bond futures market is under pressure due to multiple negative factors; the precious metals market fluctuates with geopolitical events; and various commodity markets are affected by their own supply - demand fundamentals [2][5][8] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share major indices rose significantly on Monday, with TMT sectors leading the gain. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased, and their basis was further repaired. Policy expectations and market sentiment are positive, but near the interim report performance period, profit improvement needs data verification. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 at the strike price of around 6600 with a mild bullish view [2][3][4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and bond yields rose significantly. Affected by multiple negative factors such as the central bank's monetary policy report, the rising stock market, and tax - period capital convergence, the bond market sentiment weakened. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term and focus on market sentiment and key interest rate support levels [5][7] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fluctuated. The meeting of leaders from the US, Ukraine, and Europe brought hope for easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, increasing risk appetite. Gold prices closed slightly down, and silver prices closed slightly up. It is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy through gold call options when the price corrects, and maintain a low - buying strategy for silver or build a bullish spread option strategy [8][9][10] Container Shipping Futures (EC) - The spot prices of major shipping companies vary, and the container shipping index shows a mixed trend. The market is in a weak - shock state. Due to high container growth and weak European demand, it is expected that the price of the October off - season contract will be lower than last year. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract [11][12] Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper is high, suppressing downstream procurement. The short - term trading focus is on interest - rate cut expectations. The supply of copper concentrate is slightly relaxed, and domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline slightly in August. The inventory shows a mixed trend. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 78000 - 79500 [13][15][16] - **Alumina**: The spot price shows a north - south differentiation. The production capacity is expected to increase slightly in August. The inventory of ports decreases, and the registered warehouse receipts increase. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely between 3000 - 3300 in the short term, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium term [17][18] - **Aluminum**: The spot price of aluminum decreases. The production capacity is stable, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreases, leading to an increase in inventory. Affected by the expansion of US import tariffs, the price is under pressure. It is expected that the price will be under high - level pressure in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 20000 - 21000 [20][21] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In the off - season, terminal consumption is weak, and the social inventory in major consumption areas is close to full. The supply is affected by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and the demand is suppressed by the off - season. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, and the main contract is expected to trade between 19600 - 20400 [22][23] - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc decreases. The supply of zinc ore is in a loose cycle, and the production of refined zinc increases. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory shows a mixed trend. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate, and the main contract is expected to trade between 22000 - 23000 [23][24][26] - **Tin**: The spot price of tin decreases. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the import volume is low. The demand is weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and the entry of the electronics off - season. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [27][28][29] - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel increases slightly. The production of refined nickel is at a high level, and the demand is generally stable. The overseas inventory is high, and the domestic inventory increases slightly. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 118000 - 126000 [29][30][31] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel increases slightly. The cost is supported, but the demand is weak. The production is expected to increase in August, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected that the price will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 12800 - 13500 [32][33][35] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate increases. The supply is affected by disturbances, and the demand is optimistic. The inventory decreases slightly. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 86000 - 92000. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and try to go long lightly at low prices [36][37][39] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The cost increased, and the steel mill's profit improved. The supply increased, and the demand decreased, with inventory accumulating mainly in traders. Considering the expected production restrictions in the middle and late August, it is expected that the price will remain high and fluctuate, and the support levels for hot - rolled coils and rebar are around 3400 and 3150 respectively [40][41][42] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore decreased slightly. The global shipment increased, and the port arrival volume decreased. The demand from steel mills was high, and the inventory increased slightly. Considering the production restrictions of Hebei steel mills in the late period, it is recommended to short at high prices [43][44] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price fell. The supply from domestic mines decreased slightly, and the import of Mongolian coal was stable. The demand from downstream industries was high but slowed down. The inventory was at a medium level. It is recommended to short at high prices for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse spread for arbitrage [45][47][48] - **Coke**: The sixth round of price increase for coke was implemented, and the seventh round was initiated. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was still resilient. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to short at high prices for the 2601 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread for arbitrage [49][50] Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: The spot price of soybean meal increased slightly, and the trading volume increased. The开机 rate of oil mills decreased slightly. The fundamental news shows that the US soybean crushing volume increased, and the EU's oilseed import decreased. The USDA report supported the US soybean price, but there was still upward pressure. It is recommended to take long - term long positions at low prices [51][52][53] - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs fluctuated at a low level. The profit of pig farming varied, and the average weight of pigs increased slightly. With the expected increase in group - farmed pig sales in August and the need for small - scale farmers to sell large - weight pigs, the future pig price is not optimistic. It is not recommended to short blindly for far - month contracts [54][55] - **Corn**: The spot price of corn was mixed. The supply pressure was obvious, and the demand was weak. The inventory in Guangzhou ports decreased. It is expected that the corn price will be weak and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [56][57][58] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price oscillated at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price oscillated at a high level. The Brazilian sugar production increased, and the Indian sugar production was expected to increase. The domestic sugar import in July was expected to be much higher than last year. It is recommended to maintain a short - on - rebound strategy [59] - **Cotton**: After the cotton price stabilized in early August, the industrial downstream improved slightly. The inventory of cotton yarn decreased slightly, and the spinning mill's operation rate remained stable. The cotton price has support at low levels, and it is expected to oscillate, paying attention to the traditional peak - season demand [60]
国泰君安期货所长早读-20250819
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 02:35
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The central bank's Q2 monetary policy implementation report indicates that there are more positive factors for a moderate recovery in price levels, and promoting service consumption can help boost domestic demand [8]. - The hog market is under pressure with an oversupply situation, and the 9 - month contract is expected to shift to a discount structure [9][10]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile and bearish, with short - term contracts showing some resilience and long - term contracts facing potential adjustments [11]. - Various commodities have different trends, such as gold and silver being affected by PPI data, copper lacking driving forces and oscillating, and zinc facing downward pressure [13][17][22]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Central Bank Policy and Consumption - The central bank's Q2 2025 monetary policy implementation report emphasizes that promoting service consumption by improving high - quality service supply is important. In 2024, the service consumption proportion in residents' per - capita consumption expenditure was about 46.1%, with significant growth potential [8]. 3.2 Hog Market - Since July, leading hog groups have increased supply and reduced weight, causing the spot price to decline. The market's previous bullish expectations have failed, and there is an oversupply situation. The 9 - month contract is expected to shift to a discount structure [9][10]. 3.3 Bond Market - The bond market is expected to be volatile and bearish. The central bank's policy emphasizes "continuing easing" and "structural adjustment." Short - term contracts have some resilience, while long - term contracts may face adjustments due to inflation expectations, macro - policies, and equity market risk preferences [11]. 3.4 Commodity Market - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are affected by PPI data. Gold and silver prices declined slightly, and their trend intensities are - 1 [13][17][20]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Lacks driving forces and oscillates. US 7 - month PPI growth and changes in Chilean copper production and China's copper imports affect the market [22]. - **Zinc**: Faces downward pressure, and the trend intensity is - 1 [13][25][26]. - **Lead**: LME inventory reduction provides some support for prices, and the trend intensity is 0 [13][28][29]. - **Tin**: Oscillates within a range, and the trend intensity is - 1 [13][32][33]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum's volatility converges, alumina's center of gravity moves down, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are 0, and that of alumina is - 1 [13][35][37]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel oscillates narrowly based on fundamentals, and stainless steel oscillates due to the game between macro - expectations and reality. Their trend intensities are both 0 [13][38][42]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply disruptions and improving demand may lead to a continued bullish oscillation. The trend intensity is 1 [13][43][45]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon requires attention to market sentiment changes, and polysilicon requires attention to market news. The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [13][46][49]. - **Iron Ore**: Macro - risk appetite has not significantly declined, providing support. The trend intensity is 1 [13][51][52]. - **Steel Products**: Rebar and hot - rolled coils oscillate widely, and their trend intensities are both 0 [13][54][58]. - **Ferroalloys**: Ferrosilicon oscillates weakly due to weak sector sentiment, and silicomanganese oscillates widely with a firm spot price. Their trend intensities are both 0 [13][59][61]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both oscillate at high levels, and their trend intensities are both 0 [13][62][64]. - **Logs**: Oscillate repeatedly, and the trend intensity is 0 [13][65][68]. - **Petrochemicals**: Paraxylene is in a short - term oscillating market with increased supply and decreased demand but improved terminal demand. PTA has a weak reality and strong expectations, suitable for a monthly spread reverse arbitrage. MEG oscillates within a range, and attention should be paid to terminal demand improvement [13][69].
建信期货国债日报-20250819
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:52
Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - Long - term, the bull - market foundation of the bond market remains unchanged as the Politburo meeting in July maintained a "moderately loose" stance on monetary policy and there is high tariff uncertainty. But short - term, the stock - bond seesaw effect since late June has put pressure on the bond market, and the short - term rebound of the bond market is unlikely to form a trend. It is recommended to maintain the strategy of going long on short - term and short on long - term bonds [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Condition**: A - shares hitting new highs suppressed the bond market, with treasury bond futures falling across the board and long - end bonds experiencing larger declines. The yields of 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds approached the 2.0% and 1.8% thresholds respectively [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities rose, with long - end yields rising significantly by 4 - 6bp. As of 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.785%, up 4bp [9] - **Funding Market**: The central bank increased its investment to offset tax - period disturbances, and the inter - bank funding market tightened marginally. There were 112 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 266.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 154.5 billion yuan. Short - term funding rates rose, while medium - and long - term funding remained stable [10] - **Conclusion**: The long - term bull - market foundation of the bond market remains unchanged, but short - term pressure exists. It is recommended to maintain the strategy of going long on short - term and short on long - term bonds and pay attention to the central bank's investment during the tax - period this week [11][12] 2. Industry News - The Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, Zou Lan, stated that policy support will be strengthened to stimulate the vitality of the movable property financing market, which is important for small and medium - sized enterprises and the diversification of the financial market [13] - On the evening of August 17, Eastern Time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Washington, and on the afternoon of August 18, Eastern Time, he was scheduled to meet with US President Donald Trump [13] - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy implementation report proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, promote a reasonable recovery of prices, and use structural monetary policy tools [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Data on trading of various treasury bond futures contracts on August 18, including settlement prices, trading volumes, and open interest, were provided [6] - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR term structure changes, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate changes, and other money - market data were presented [28][29] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves was provided [32]
盾博dbg:鲍威尔的告别演讲,在两难困境中寻找方向
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 01:48
Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces a complex economic landscape as he prepares for his farewell speech, balancing the dual objectives of price stability and full employment amid conflicting economic indicators [3][4][6] Economic Indicators - Current economic data presents a mixed picture, with manufacturing PMI declining and corporate orders decreasing, indicating pressure on the real economy [4] - Conversely, the job market remains strong with low unemployment rates and stable wage growth, suggesting a relatively healthy economy [4] - Inflationary pressures persist, indicating that price stability has not yet been fully achieved [4][7] Federal Reserve's Dilemma - Powell is caught in a dilemma between addressing high inflation, which could erode purchasing power, and high unemployment, which could lead to social issues and reduced economic growth [3][4] - The internal debate among Federal Reserve officials regarding which risk is greater—high inflation or high unemployment—reflects the complexity of the current economic situation [3] Market Expectations - Investors and the Trump administration anticipate a rate cut at the upcoming September meeting, hoping it will create a more accommodative monetary policy environment and stimulate economic growth [3][4] - The communication surrounding any potential rate cut is crucial, as it could signal either a temporary measure or the beginning of a series of cuts, impacting market confidence [5] Historical Context - Powell's tenure has been marked by unprecedented challenges, including aggressive monetary policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent inflationary pressures [6] - He aims to emulate the flexible policy adjustments of former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan while navigating the current economic uncertainties [7]
政府债券发行稳步推进,国债ETF5至10年(511020)近10个交易日净流入3166.30万元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 01:47
中信证券研报称,上周市场受外部因素扰动,长债利率震荡抬升。脱离基本面弱现实,债市对股市、商品市场的情绪外溢定价仍然较多,对部分宽地产、宽 信用利空因素敏感度上升,利率波动加剧。央行加大流动性投放,或推动曲线继续陡峭化。资金面供强需弱的大环境下,宽松基调或延续。预计债市短期仍 受外部扰动为主,破局点可能在股债情绪切换。 专家称后续货币政策的重心在于抓好落实,仍将保持支持性立场。近期,各地金融管理部门围绕地方经济与产业特点出台针对性举措,金融机构依托自身资 源禀赋强化服务能力,共同落实落细稳经济各项存量与增量政策。民生银行首席经济学家兼研究院院长温彬认为,后续货币政策的重心在于抓好落实,积极 推动前期推出的一揽子金融政策以及近期各项稳增长增量政策落地显效,并对前期政策的传导情况和实际效果保持密切跟踪,增强灵活性。总体看,下半年 为稳信用、促内需、强协同、保持政策连续性稳定性,货币政策仍将保持支持性立场。华创证券研究所副所长、首席宏观分析师张瑜也认为,结构比总量更 重要。在扩大消费方面,预计货币政策将从三个方面发力:落实前期的服务消费与养老再贷款政策,加大对服务消费领域的供给支持;拓宽消费领域经营主 体融资渠道,稳 ...
成交额超3000万元,国开债券ETF(159651)备受关注
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 01:47
Group 1 - The market experienced fluctuations in long-term bond rates due to external factors, with increased sensitivity to negative factors in wide real estate and credit policies [1] - The total scale of ETFs has grown by 1.04 trillion yuan this year, with broad-based ETFs becoming a stabilizing force in the market [1] - The broad-based ETFs, represented by the CSI 300 and CSI A500, have significantly expanded in scale due to continuous buying from long-term funds like Central Huijin [1] Group 2 - The focus of future monetary policy will be on effective implementation, maintaining a supportive stance to stabilize credit and promote domestic demand [2] - Monetary policy is expected to target three areas to boost consumption: implementing previous service consumption and pension refinancing policies, expanding financing channels for consumption entities, and enhancing policy coordination on the demand side [2] - As of August 18, 2025, the National Development Bank Bond ETF has seen a 0.10% decline, with a 1.65% increase over the past year [2] Group 3 - The National Development Bank Bond ETF had a turnover rate of 6.76% and a transaction volume of 37.27 million yuan on August 18, 2025, with an average daily transaction of 521 million yuan over the past year [3] - The ETF has recorded a 0.59% increase in net value over the past six months, with a historical profit probability of 100% over two years [3] - The maximum drawdown for the ETF in the past six months was 0.18%, the smallest among comparable funds [3] Group 4 - The management fee for the National Development Bank Bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [4] - The ETF closely tracks the China Bond - 0-3 Year National Development Bank Bond Index, which includes policy bank bonds with a maturity of up to three years [4] - The tracking error for the ETF over the past three months is 0.014%, the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [4]
机构称国债买卖重启需要“择机”,公司债ETF(511030)交投活跃
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 01:47
Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market experienced fluctuations due to external factors, with long-term bond yields rising, indicating increased sensitivity to negative factors in the real estate and credit sectors [1] - The overall difficulty in bond market operations has increased, with investors' coupon returns being quickly eroded by rising interest rates, leading to weakened investment confidence [2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to focus on the timing of restarting government bond trading, particularly monitoring bond yield levels [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The focus of future monetary policy will be on implementing previously announced financial policies and ensuring their effectiveness, with a supportive stance expected to continue [1] - In terms of expanding consumption, monetary policy is anticipated to target three areas: supporting service consumption and elderly loans, broadening financing channels for consumption, and enhancing policy coordination on the demand side [1] Group 3: Company Bond ETF Performance - As of August 18, 2025, the company bond ETF (511030) has seen a slight decline of 0.11%, with a one-year cumulative increase of 1.76% [4] - The latest scale of the company bond ETF reached 22.33 billion, with recent inflows and outflows remaining balanced [5] - The company bond ETF has shown a historical profitability rate of 83.33% and a monthly profitability probability of 79.94% [6]
国新国证期货早报-20250819
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:36
Report Summary 1. Market Performance on August 18, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market showed strong performance. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high since August 2015, the Northbound 50 hit a record high, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index both exceeded their October 8, 2024 highs. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.85% to 3728.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73% to 11835.57 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.84% to 2606.20 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2764.2 billion yuan, a significant increase of 519.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4239.41, up 37.06 [1][2] - **Coke and Coking Coal Futures**: Coke weighted index oscillated weakly, closing at 1693.3, down 22.8. Coking coal weighted index was also weak, closing at 1174.0 yuan, down 34.1 [3][4] - **Other Futures**: - Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose due to stable spot prices and capital factors, despite the decline of US sugar on Friday. - Shanghai Rubber oscillated and adjusted due to large short - term gains, technical factors, and the decline of crude oil prices. - Palm Oil 2601 contract closed with a small increase, and the expected export volume from Malaysia from August 1 - 15 increased by 34.5% compared to the same period last month. - Shanghai Copper closed slightly down 0.01%, with limited macro - guidance and increased social inventory dragging down the price, but potential restocking demand restricted the decline. - Iron Ore 2601 contract closed down 0.64% at 772 yuan, with supply tightening and high iron - water production leading to a short - term oscillating trend. - Asphalt 2510 contract closed up 0.06% at 3473 yuan, with short - term demand difficult to improve and prices oscillating. - Cotton: Zhengzhou Cotton's night - session main contract closed at 14130 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 87 lots. - Logs: The 25091 contract opened at 817, closed at 811, and decreased by 1105 lots. The spot price in Shandong remained unchanged. - Steel: rb2510 closed at 3155 yuan/ton, hc2510 closed at 3419 yuan/ton. Steel futures may face short - term pressure due to poor fundamental improvement. - Alumina: ao2601 closed at 3171 yuan/ton, with supply expected to be in surplus in the second half of the year and prices oscillating. - Shanghai Aluminum: al2510 closed at 20595 yuan/ton. The expansion of US tariffs on aluminum derivatives affected the price, but the probability of a trend reversal is low [1][5][8] 2. Fundamental Information Coke - The sixth round of price increase has been implemented. The overseas demand for US Treasury bonds is resilient, with foreign investors' holdings reaching a new high in June, while India and Ireland's holdings declined. - Raw material inventory has increased. The current iron - water production is 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons. The coal mine inventory has no pressure, and the inventory has shifted downstream. The total coking coal inventory is increasing. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 20 yuan/ton [5] Coking Coal - The price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1230, equivalent to 1010 on the futures market. - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy report aims to promote a reasonable increase in prices. - The mine - end inventory has increased, and the coking coal inventory has shifted downstream. The cumulative import growth rate has declined for three consecutive months, and the inventory is moderately high [5] Other Commodities - **Soybean Meal**: The supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and the oil - mill operating rate is high, with high inventory. The Brazilian premium has slightly declined, but the high price of US soybeans keeps the import cost high. There is an expected supply shortage in the fourth quarter [7] - **Pig**: It is currently the off - season for pork consumption, with weak terminal demand. The supply of suitable pigs has increased, and the overall situation is one of loose supply and demand [7] - **Palm Oil**: The expected export volume from Malaysia from August 1 - 15 increased significantly compared to the same period last month [8] - **Copper**: The social inventory increased at the beginning of the week, dragging down the price, but the potential restocking demand of downstream processing enterprises restricts the decline [8] - **Iron Ore**: The global shipment and arrival volume of iron ore decreased last week, and the iron - water production is at a relatively high level, resulting in a short - term oscillating price [8] - **Asphalt**: The capacity utilization rate increased last week, but the shipment volume decreased. The demand is affected by weather and funds, and the price is oscillating [9] - **Logs**: The import volume in July decreased year - on - year, and the futures price is affected by the increase in external quotes. The spot trading is weak [10] - **Steel**: The weekly output of five major steel products has increased for three consecutive weeks, the inventory has accumulated faster, and the apparent demand has declined to a new low since early March [11] - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity is high, the import window opens intermittently, and the supply is expected to be in surplus in the second half of the year, with inventory increasing [11] - **Aluminum**: The expansion of US tariffs on aluminum derivatives affects China's exports, but the impact is weaker than before. Considering the expected peak season in September and the expected interest - rate cut, the probability of a trend reversal is low [11]
美国政府或成英特尔最大股东
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-08-19 00:38
美东时间周一,美股三大指数收盘几乎平收。截至收盘,道琼斯指数跌0.08%,报44911.82点;纳斯达克综合指数涨0.03%,报21629.77点;标普500指数 跌0.01%,报6449.15点。 债券市场方面,美债收益率连升三日,10年期美国国债、2年期美国国债收益率18日日内均涨逾1个基点,分别收于4.334%、3.767%。 (文章来源:上海证券报) 平静的行情下,市场屏息以待8月21日至23日举行的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会,以期美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话能为货币政策路径与经济前景提供更多指 引。 美东时间周一,美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一。截至收盘,道琼斯指数跌0.08%,报44911.82点;纳斯达克综合指数涨0.03%,报21629.77点;标普500指数 跌0.01%,报6449.15点。 大型科技股涨跌不一,Meta收跌2.27%,微软、苹果、谷歌小幅下跌;奈飞、亚马逊、英伟达小幅收涨,特斯拉涨1.39%。 英特尔跌超3%,结束此前连续六个交易日上涨的趋势。据外媒报道,一位白宫官员和知情人士透露,特朗普政府正与英特尔公司洽谈,拟收购英特尔约 10%股份。若交易成行,美国联邦政府将一跃成为这家芯片制造商 ...
专家称后续货币政策的重心在于抓好落实,仍将保持支持性立场
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 00:13
近期,各地金融管理部门围绕地方经济与产业特点出台针对性举措,金融机构依托自身资源禀赋强化服 务能力,共同落实落细稳经济各项存量与增量政策。民生银行首席经济学家兼研究院院长温彬认为,后 续货币政策的重心在于抓好落实,积极推动前期推出的一揽子金融政策以及近期各项稳增长增量政策落 地显效,并对前期政策的传导情况和实际效果保持密切跟踪,增强灵活性。总体看,下半年为稳信用、 促内需、强协同、保持政策连续性稳定性,货币政策仍将保持支持性立场。 ...