风险提示 ：国际地缘、贸易冲突超出预期；全球金融市场风险暴露；国内上市公司业绩增速回落超预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 首先，上周市场围绕着美元的流动性预期而展开。 北京时间1月30日，特朗普宣布提名凯文•沃什（KevinWarsh）接任美联储主席。沃什强调央行的 独立性，其核心理念是将货币政策与财政政策分开，并明确支持美联储未来推进大幅缩表。其偏鹰派的标签使得市场担心流动性出现紧缩，随之而来的是 贵金属市场出现了较大波动，美股科技股上周震荡幅度同样较大。A股受到国际市场的影响，上周也同步出现了调整，投资者情绪开始转向谨慎，市场成 交大幅萎缩。 上周市场震荡调整，日均量能大幅下降。 沪指上周震荡调整，周一跌破30天均线后，围绕5天均线反复争夺。深圳成指表现弱于沪市，周中的反弹基 本被5天均线所压制。量能方面，上周两市日均量能不到24000亿元，较前周大幅回落。上周市场热点主要集中在消费品和新能源行业。中证2000与沪深 300的比值（归一化处理后）为1.47，较前周小幅反弹。上周大盘蓝筹股相对抗跌，中小盘和科技股领跌。 从运行节奏看，沪指连续反弹后，进入横盘震荡阶段。 沪指于12月中下旬启动上行趋势，1月中旬创出 ...

铝产业链月报 2026 年 2 月 9 日 风险情绪下行供需季节性弱 铝价震荡向下调整 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 25 进入休假，铸造铝检修增多开工率逐步下滑。海外 ADC12报价维持高位震荡，受国内价格下跌影响，进 口盈利空间持续收窄并一度转为小幅亏损，进口货 源对国内市场的冲击减弱。下游需求偏弱，高价备 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 ⚫ 氧化铝方面，1月氧化铝出现部分减产检修，涉及产 能约500万吨，不过这些减产多以焙烧炉检修为主， 后续产能将陆续恢复。临近春节物流运力将有大幅 下降，氧化铝厂库 ...

证券研究报告 宏观 春运出行较为活跃 2026 年 2 月 08 日│中国内地 国内周报 一周概览 农历春节对齐后的高频数据显示，春运前五天人员流动量同比景气度较高， 节前工业生产活动同比有所降温，新房和二手房成交同比亦有所回落；港口 高频指标显示 1 月出口或保持较高景气度。上周人民币兑美元汇率升值、国 债收益率趋平，银行间流动性整体偏松；本周重点关注 1 月通胀数据和货币 信贷"开门红"成色。 高频经济活动跟踪 居民出行景气度小幅回落，工业生产与建筑开工和地产成交同比仍偏弱。出 行及消费方面，春运前 5 天（2 月 2-6 日）全社会跨区域人员流动量累计同 比增长 1.9%，其中公路/水路/民航发送旅客数量同比增长 2%/19.8%/5.8%， 而铁路发送客运量同比回落 0.7%；飞猪数据显示，截至 2 月 5 日，春节假 期高星级酒店预订量同比增长近 70%。节前工业生产趋于平淡，焦化/沥青/ 半钢胎企业开工率同比下行 2.6/4.8/6.1 个百分点；建筑开工需求偏弱，建 筑钢材成交量同比降幅走阔至 47.4%，而偏低基数下水泥开工/发运率同比 上行 5.1/1.8 个百分点。出口及物流方面，出口高频 ...

Group 1 - The conference focused on macroeconomic policy goals set by the Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing that development is the foundation for solving all problems in China, and growth is essential for development [1] - Experts suggested that economic growth should be maintained within a reasonable range by 2026, and that there is a need to effectively balance qualitative improvements with reasonable quantitative growth [1] - The implementation of more proactive macro policies and increased counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments were recommended to fully unleash growth potential [1] Group 2 - Fiscal policy should play a larger role this year, with a deficit rate higher than or at least not lower than the previous year, and an increase in the scale of national debt issuance to expand total expenditure [2] - To stimulate investment and consumption, a significant overall interest rate cut of at least 50 basis points for the entire year is suggested, along with better utilization of reserve requirement ratio cuts [2] - Strengthening the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is essential, with an emphasis on expanding the scale of new financial policy tools to leverage investment [2] - To stabilize investment and boost consumption, efforts to restore effective credit issuance conditions should be intensified, particularly in stabilizing the real estate market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The conference emphasized that development is the foundation for solving all problems in China, and economic growth is essential for high-quality development. It is crucial to balance qualitative improvements with reasonable quantitative growth, aiming to maintain economic growth within a reasonable range by 2026 [2]. Group 1: Economic Policy Recommendations - Experts suggested that fiscal policy should play a larger role this year, with a deficit ratio higher than or at least not lower than the previous year, increasing the scale of national debt issuance and expanding total expenditure [2]. - The current actual financing costs are still relatively high; to stimulate investment and consumption, a significant overall interest rate cut of at least 50 basis points should be implemented, along with better utilization of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts [2]. - There is a need to strengthen the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, leveraging new financial policy tools to expand their scale and achieve a leverage effect on investment [2]. - To stabilize investment and boost consumption, it is necessary to enhance efforts to stabilize the real estate market and restore effective credit supply conditions promptly [2].

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 8 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 增长格局延续，资产范式渐变：2026 年海外宏观环境展望 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 分析师： 陈嘉荔 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 021-38003572 021-38003674 guolei@gf.com.cn gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 请注意，陈嘉荔并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 回顾 2025 年，全球宏观面有五大特征：一是实际增长率大致稳定，IMF 预计 2025 年全球经济增速为 3.2%1， 和 2024 年区别不大，关税冲击被进口抢跑和 AI 投资部分对冲，是韧性的主要来源；二是不同经济体分化，美 国实际增速有所下滑，欧日小幅反弹，新兴市场维持韧性增速；三是通胀和货币政策分化，但宽松为主，欧元 区上半年降息、美国下半年降息、日本加息、新兴市场多 ...

Domestic Demand - Domestic travel demand is steadily increasing, with subway passenger volume up 8.8% compared to the same period in 2024, and domestic flight numbers averaging 14,500, a 1.6% increase year-on-year[2] - Movie ticket revenue has decreased by 37.2% year-on-year, averaging 62.245 million yuan per day[2] - Passenger car sales in January were 679,000 units, down 31.7% from the previous year[2] External Demand - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1993.2, showing a marginal decline but significantly higher than the previous year[2] - The China Export Container Freight Index averaged 1122.2, down 4.5% week-on-week and 16.4% year-on-year[2] - Port cargo throughput reached 281.597 million tons, a 25.5% increase compared to the same period in 2024[2] Production Sector - The operating rate of blast furnaces increased by 0.53 percentage points to 79.55%[2] - The operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires decreased by 2.08 percentage points to 72.76%[2] - PTA production increased by 35,500 tons to 1.4639 million tons, with an operating rate of 76.29%[2] Price Trends - Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains low, with pork prices down 1.12% week-on-week and vegetable prices down 1.46%[3][4] - Producer Price Index (PPI) shows significant increases in coking coal and coke prices, while non-ferrous metals have adjusted downwards due to a stronger dollar and seasonal demand decline[4] Monetary Policy - The central bank's reverse repurchase operations netted 756 billion yuan this week, with SHIBOR rates showing a seasonal decline[5] - The yield curve for government bonds has flattened, with the 30-year yield at 2.2510% and the 10-year yield at 1.8102%[5] International Context - U.S. consumer confidence index rose to 57.3, with one-year inflation expectations dropping to 3.5%, the lowest in 13 months[5] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 52.6%, indicating a return to expansion, with new orders and production indices showing significant growth[7]

有色金属周报 20260208 情绪趋稳，商品价格筑底 glmszqdatemark 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价（元） | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601899.SH | 紫金矿业 | 37.19 | 1.21 | 2.00 | 2.71 | 31 | 19 | 14 | 推荐 | | 603993.SH | 洛阳钼业 | 21.99 | 0.63 | 0.88 | 1.29 | 35 | 25 | 17 | 推荐 | | 000807.SZ | 云铝股份 | 31.70 | 1.27 | 1.94 | 2.31 | 25 | 16 | 14 | 推荐 | | 603799.SH | 华友钴业 | 70.45 | 2.50 | 3.15 | 4.17 | 28 | 22 | 17 | 推荐 | | 00 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of England (BoE) decided to maintain the current benchmark interest rate at 3.75% during its first monetary policy meeting of 2026, signaling a dovish stance despite not lowering rates [1][4] - BoE Governor Andrew Bailey indicated that there is still room for further easing of monetary policy, citing a clear output gap in the UK economy and a reduced risk of persistent inflation [1][2] - Chief Economist Huw Pill expressed optimism regarding long-term inflation expectations and the medium-term inflation outlook, suggesting a cautious approach to gradually removing monetary policy restrictions [1][2] Group 2 - The voting among the nine members of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee was closely divided, with a notable inclination towards easing monetary policy even among those favoring the current rate [2][3] - The BoE anticipates that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will return to around 2% by April, aligning with market expectations from institutions like EY ITEM Club [2][4] - The BoE's assessment of the labor market indicates a potential rise in the unemployment rate to 5.3%, which may lead to subdued wage growth, further supporting the case for a more accommodative monetary policy [3][4] Group 3 - Market reactions included a decline in the GBP/USD exchange rate, dropping to 1.35 from 1.37, and a decrease in UK government bond yields across various maturities [4][5] - The yields on 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year UK government bonds fell by 0.038%, 0.031%, and 0.031% respectively, reflecting market expectations of future rate cuts [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the end of the QE era, highlighting the transition from quantitative easing (QE) to quantitative tightening (QT) and the implications for monetary policy and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet - The Federal Reserve has undergone four rounds of QE and two rounds of QT from 2008 to 2026, with total assets expected to remain above $6 trillion by the end of 2025 [2]. - The shift from a "scarce reserves" framework to a "ample reserves" framework has changed the operational approach of the Federal Reserve, where policy rates are now the primary indicator of monetary policy rather than the balance sheet [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - The article suggests that a return to QE or Yield Curve Control (YCC) may be necessary if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates to zero, indicating that the QE era may be over until the next crisis [3]. - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is not a one-way street; it can contract as well as expand, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [3]. Group 3: Economic Growth Targets - The article notes that various provinces and cities in China have set GDP growth targets averaging 5.1% for 2026, reflecting a cautious approach to economic recovery [19]. - The targets indicate a slight downward adjustment compared to previous years, with some regions aiming for better-than-expected results [19].