2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.01%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约涨0.01%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约跌0.01%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.13%。 国债期货早盘开盘 ...

2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.03%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约跌0.01%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约涨0.03%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.13%。 国债期货午盘收盘 ...

2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.04%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约涨0.01%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约跌0.02%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约跌0.09%。 国债期货早盘收盘 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 降息预期兑现，短期震荡整理为 主 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡下跌，其中 30 年期国债期货跌幅居前。消息面，中美双方发布日内 瓦经贸会谈联合声明，双方各下降了 91%的税率，暂停了 24%的税率，观察期为 90 天，标志着两国经 贸关系进入阶段性缓和，国债的避险需求快速回落，风险资产的风险偏好快速回升。从中长期的角度 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - On May 12, treasury bond futures weakened collectively, with TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts falling by 0.08%, 0.20%, 0.46%, and 1.31% respectively. The central bank made a net investment, and the weighted average DR007 rate remained around 1.57%, indicating a relatively loose capital market. Domestically, economic data showed strong performance due to pre - emptive policy efforts to boost domestic demand, with retail sales, fixed - asset investment, and industrial growth slightly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate improving month - on - month. Financial data also slightly exceeded expectations, but the private sector's financing willingness still needed to be boosted. In terms of prices, core inflation improved, but industrial price data was still weak due to the drag of international commodities. The expected escalation of tariff frictions led to an unexpected rebound in exports. Overseas, the US PMI in April declined slightly, and non - farm payroll growth, CPI, PPI, and retail sales data all fell short of expectations. Strategically, recent Sino - US tariff negotiations achieved phased results, and with the positive effects of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts exhausted, market risk - aversion sentiment declined significantly, causing the bond market to weaken. Considering that short - term bond futures have been significantly weaker than long - term ones recently, attention should be paid to the risk of long - term bond price corrections due to short - term interest rate spread adjustments. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volumes**: On May 12, the closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 108.530 (-0.46%), 105.890 (-0.2%), 102.276 (-0.08%), and 118.740 (-1.31%) respectively, and their trading volumes increased by 25984, 11884, 12096, and 27236 respectively. [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads changed, such as the TL2509 - 2506 spread decreased by 0.06 to 0.49, while the T2509 - 2506 spread increased by 0.04 to 0.19. [2] - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all decreased, and the net short positions of the top 20 in each contract also decreased to varying degrees. [2] 3.2 Bond Market Data - **CTD Bond Net Prices**: The net prices of several CTD bonds decreased, such as 240025.IB (6y) dropping by 0.3405 to 99.0631. [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of active bonds with different maturities decreased, with the 1 - year yield dropping by 1.00bp to 1.4000%. [2] 3.3 Interest Rate Data - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Most short - term interest rates decreased, such as the overnight silver - pledged repo rate dropping by 4.20bp to 1.4080%. The LPR rates remained unchanged. [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - On May 12, the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with an issue size of 430 billion yuan, a maturity size of 0, and an interest rate of 1.5% for 7 - day operations. [2] 3.5 Industry News - On May 12, the Ministry of Commerce released a joint statement on Sino - US economic and trade talks in Geneva. Compared with the April 7 tariff measures, the US adjusted to retain a 10% basic tariff + 20% fentanyl tariff, and postponed the rest for 90 days. China also retained a 10% tariff and postponed the rest. - The central bank released the First - Quarter 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report, including measures such as increasing the volume of outright reverse repurchase operations, temporarily suspending treasury bond trading operations, and continuing to use the swap facilities among securities, funds, and insurance companies. [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - On May 13 at 20:30, the US April unadjusted CPI annual rate will be released. - On May 14 at 20:30, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 10 (in ten thousand people) and the US April retail sales month - on - month rate will be released. [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Treasury bond futures mostly declined slightly, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds showed mixed trends, with the yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond rising 0.4bp. The inter - bank market liquidity was abundant, and the overnight and seven - day pledged repo rates of deposit - taking institutions both declined again, with the former falling more than 3bp and the latter more than 7bp. After the central bank's interest - rate cut policy took effect, the overall interest - rate center declined, and with consecutive net injections in the open market in recent days, the liquidity expectation was optimistic, and the capital price was expected to continue to fall in the short term [3] - The April PMI fell into the contraction range. The LPR remained unchanged for six consecutive months. The central bank adjusted the MLF operation mode, and its policy attribute faded out completely. The central bank mentioned again the possibility of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts to promote a decline in the comprehensive social financing cost. The first - quarter financial data was stable and positive. The CPI in March declined slightly but the decline narrowed, and the core CPI rose moderately. There were new developments in the recent tariff negotiations, but it was still a long way from reaching an agreement, which would impact the bond market [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures contracts' price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and other information are presented. For example, the T2506 contract price was 109.060, down 0.01%, with a trading volume of 78,100 and an open interest of 329,444 [8] 2. Fundamental Analysis - The fundamentals show that Treasury bond futures mostly declined slightly, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds showed mixed trends. The inter - bank market liquidity was abundant, and the capital price was expected to continue to fall in the short term [3] 3. Capital Flow Analysis - On May 9, the central bank conducted 77 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 77 billion yuan on that day [3] 4. Basis Analysis - The TS, TF, and T main contract basis were negative, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which was bearish. The TL main contract basis was positive, indicating that the spot was at a premium to the futures, which was bullish [3] 5. Inventory Analysis - The balance of deliverable bonds for the TS, TF, and T main contracts was 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3566 trillion respectively, which was neutral [4] 6. Market Trend Analysis - The TS, TF, and T main contracts were all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, which was bullish [4] 7. Main Position Analysis - The TS and TF main contracts had net long positions, and the long positions increased. The T main contract had a net long position, but the long positions decreased [5]

Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury futures contract narrowed its decline to 0.40%, after previously dropping by 0.70% [1] - The 10-year Treasury futures contract decreased by 0.11% [1] - The 5-year Treasury futures contract increased by 0.03% [1] - The 2-year Treasury futures contract rose by 0.02% [1]

2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.01%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约跌0.07%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约跌0.21%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约跌0.61%。 国债期货早盘开盘 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic fundamental side shows a marginal recovery trend, but the recovery foundation needs to be consolidated, and policy expectations continue to increase. The overseas market shows signs of economic cooling, and the Fed's policy still favors anti - inflation. The bond market is in a sideways shock, and the bond bull environment remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before making band allocations [92] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - **Contract Performance**: The 30 - year TL2506 contract fell 0.32%, the 10 - year T2506 contract rose 0.06%, the 5 - year TF2506 contract fell 0.01%, and the 2 - year TS2506 contract fell 0.02%. The trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts all decreased, as did their open interests [11][28] - **CTD Bond Performance**: For the 30 - year, 200012.IB fell 0.33 and 210005.IB fell 0.15; for the 10 - year, 220003.IB fell 0.06 and 240025.IB remained unchanged; for the 5 - year, 240014.IB rose 0.03 and 220021.IB rose 0.11; for the 2 - year, 240024.IB rose 0.03 and 220002.IB rose 0.09 [11] 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: On May 7, China agreed to have contact with the US, and the Chinese finance minister said China would achieve the 5% growth target in 2025. On May 8, three departments issued a package of financial policies, including a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut, a 0.1 - percentage - point policy rate cut, etc. The public fund industry worth over 30 trillion yuan underwent systematic reform [31] - **International News**: On May 8, the Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 3 was 228,000, lower than expected [32] 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: The yield spreads between 10Y - 5Y and 10Y - 1Y bonds widened slightly. The spread between 2 - year and 5 - year main contracts widened slightly, while the spread between 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts narrowed slightly. The inter - period spreads of 10 - year, 30 - year, 2 - year, and 5 - year contracts weakened slightly [40][44][50] - **Main Contract Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders in the T main contract decreased slightly [61] - **Interest Rate Changes**: Overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all declined. The DR007 weighted average rate rose to around 1.78%, and the money market tightened. The yields of short - term treasury bonds were stronger than long - term ones, with 1 - 7Y yields down 2 - 5bp and 10Y, 30Y yields up 1bp to 1.63% and 1.88% respectively. The yield spreads between US and Chinese 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds widened slightly [65][69] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 836.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and had 1617.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities, resulting in a net injection of 781.7 billion yuan. The DR007 weighted average rate fell to around 1.52%, and the money market tightness improved [72] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bond issuance was 1433.8 billion yuan, total repayment was 813.6 billion yuan, and net financing was 620.169 billion yuan [76] - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.2095, down 81 basis points this week. The spread between offshore and onshore RMB strengthened. The 10 - year US treasury bond yield rose slightly, the VIX index fell slightly, the 10 - year treasury bond yield in China rose slightly, and the A - share risk premium fell slightly [82][85][89] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: The domestic economy shows a marginal recovery, but the recovery foundation needs to be strengthened, and policy expectations will continue to increase [92] - **Overseas Situation**: The US economy shows signs of cooling, and the Fed's policy still favors anti - inflation, with the possibility of delaying the rate - cut time to July [92] - **Strategy**: The bond market is in a sideways shock. Considering the long - term need for a low - interest - rate environment, the bond bull environment remains unchanged. However, beware of the risk of long - end bond price corrections. It is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before making band allocations [92]

2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.02%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约跌0.01%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约涨0.01%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约跌0.11%。 国债期货早盘收盘 ...