Core Viewpoint - Foreign institutions are increasingly optimistic about Chinese stocks, projecting a rise in A-share earnings growth from 6% in 2023 to 8% in 2026, driven by macroeconomic policies and market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Growth and Market Outlook - UBS forecasts that the overall A-share earnings growth will increase to 8% by 2026, supported by improved nominal GDP growth and narrowing PPI declines [2]. - Morgan Stanley highlights that Chinese stocks have room for moderate upward movement, given stable valuations and mild earnings growth [1][4]. - The International Financial Association reports that foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market reached $50.6 billion in the first ten months of 2025, significantly surpassing the $11.4 billion for the entire year of 2024 [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Themes and Sector Preferences - Key investment themes for 2026 include technological self-reliance, consumer spending recovery, and the ongoing "anti-involution" trend, which is expected to enhance profit margins [3]. - Growth style is anticipated to outperform value style in the mid-term, while cyclical stocks may outperform defensive stocks due to improving industrial profits [3]. - Morgan Stanley has raised its target for the CSI 300 index to 4,840 points for December 2026, indicating a positive outlook for high-quality internet and technology stocks [5]. Group 3: Capital Flows and Market Sentiment - Recent data shows significant inflows from both domestic and foreign investors, with foreign capital inflows of $2.257 billion and domestic inflows of $3.041 billion in the past week [5]. - Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan have upgraded their ratings on Chinese stocks to "overweight," citing attractive entry points following recent market corrections and potential for strong performance driven by AI adoption and consumer stimulus [5][6].

规划同时将"科技自立自强水平大幅提高"列为核心目标之一，明确提出培育壮大新兴产业与未来产业，打造新兴支柱产业，加 快新能源、新材料、航空航天、低空经济等战略性新兴产业集群化发展。 从中长期投资视角出发，我们将重点关注半导体自主可控、军工贸易、航空航天等领域的优质企业，将持续深耕产业链研究， 精准挖掘具备核心竞争力的投资标的，力争为基金持有人创造长期稳定的价值回报 农银 汇理投资部副总经理、 基金经理 谷超 近期国际经贸合作呈现积极信号：中美谈判取得阶段性成果，关税之外的相关反制措施基本恢复至 9 月初水平， 9 月后新增反 制举措均已暂停；关税领域，美国将对"芬太尼关税"下调 10% ，我国同步取消对应关税反制措施。更值得关注的是，全球头部 铁矿石企业必和必拓经协商同意，自今年四季度起将部分对华铁矿石贸易采用人民币结算计价，这不仅标志着我国在铁矿石领 域的定价话语权显著提升，更印证了人民币国际化进程的加速推进，人民币资产在全球市场的吸引力将持续增强。 "十五五规划"中提出了十五五时期经济社会发展的主要目标，其中首要提出"高质量发展取得显著成效。经济增长保持在合理区 间，全要素生产率稳步提升，居民消费率明显提高 ...

专利密集型产业增加值达到16.87万亿元，占GDP的比重提升到13.04%；全球前5000个品牌中我国品牌 价值达1.81万亿美元，位居全球第二；地理标志产品直接产值接近9700亿元，保持良好增长势头。 鼓励民营经济组织开展高质量知识产权布局 日前，国家知识产权局举行11月例行新闻发布会。 《每日经济新闻》记者在会场了解到，目前，我国已经成为世界上首个国内有效发明专利拥有量超过 500万件的国家，PCT（《专利合作条约》）国际专利申请量连续6年位居全球第一。 我国每万人口高价值发明专利拥有量超15件 国家知识产权局战略规划司司长梁心新介绍，"十四五"以来知识产权工作有三个比较突出的特点。 首先是高价值专利加速积累有力支撑了高水平科技自立自强。截至2025年6月底，我国每万人口高价值 发明专利拥有量达到15.3件，超额实现规划设定的预期目标；其中，战略性新兴产业发明专利有效量超 过140万件，保持较快增长。 从最新国家专利奖获奖情况来看，人工智能、先进制造、集成电路、生物医药、新能源等重点领域涌现 出一大批原创性、引领性创新成果。这充分说明，我国在关键核心技术领域的高价值专利储备不断增 强，正在加快从"量的积累 ...

Group 1 - Foreign institutions are increasingly optimistic about Chinese stocks, projecting A-share profit growth to rise from 6% this year to 8% in 2026 [1][3] - Morgan Stanley has noted that with moderate profit growth and stable valuations, Chinese stocks have room for upward movement in the global tech competition [1][7] - International Financial Association reported that foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market reached $50.6 billion in the first ten months of 2025, significantly surpassing the $11.4 billion for the entire year of 2024 [1][6] Group 2 - UBS analyst Meng Lei highlighted that factors such as macro policy support, profit recovery, and long-term capital inflows will drive A-share valuations higher [3][4] - Key investment themes for 2026 include technological self-reliance, consumer spending, and the ongoing "anti-involution" trend [4] - Morgan Stanley raised its target for the CSI 300 index to 4,840 points for December 2026, indicating a positive outlook for high-quality internet and tech stocks [7]

外资持续"做多"中国资产。 站在当前时点，多家外资机构对中国股票2026年的展望愈发乐观。12月1日，瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟 磊表示，2026年A股市场料更上一层楼，全部A股盈利增速有望从今年的6%进一步升至8%。 在此之前，摩根士丹利也指出，在盈利温和增长、估值在更高水平上企稳的背景下，中国在全球科技竞赛中站 稳脚跟，相关指数整体仍具备相对温和的上行空间。摩根大通则将中国股票评级上调为"超配"。 从资金流向来看， 国际金融协会 数据显示，2025年前10个月，境外资金流入中国股市规模达506亿美元，这一 数字已远超2024年全年的114亿美元。另据申万宏源策略的最新数据，截止到2025年11月26日，过去一周来 看，内资和外资均大幅流入中国股市。 外资巨头最新发声 资金爆买 12月1日，瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟磊发表中国股票策略观点，认为2026年全部A股盈利增速有望从今 年的6%进一步升至8%。 孟磊预计，由于 名义GDP 增速提升和PPI跌幅收窄推升企业营收增速，且支持政策的推出以及"反内卷"的推进 带动利润率复苏，2026年全部A股盈利增速有望从今年的6%进一步升至8%。 孟磊称，中期来看， ...

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector is expected to lead the market amidst a backdrop of national strategic competition, with a focus on self-reliance and the development of new productive forces, supported by favorable policies and potential monetary easing from the Federal Reserve [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The STAR Market 50 Index rose by 0.7%, the STAR Growth Index increased by 0.5%, and the STAR Composite Index went up by 0.3%, while the STAR 100 Index saw a slight decline of 0.04% [1]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - According to a report from Industrial Securities, the emphasis on technological self-reliance and the development of new productive forces will remain a priority in the context of high-quality domestic transformation [1]. - The upcoming policy direction towards the end of the year is expected to maintain the focus on industry and technology, aligning with the key tasks outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [1]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The anticipated easing measures from the Federal Reserve, along with a favorable shift in risk appetite due to a fundamental vacuum period, are expected to boost the technology growth sector, which is seen as a critical factor in driving the current market rally [1].

外资持续"做多"中国资产。 站在当前时点，多家外资机构对中国股票2026年的展望愈发乐观。12月1日，瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟 磊表示，2026年A股市场料更上一层楼，全部A股盈利增速有望从今年的6%进一步升至8%。 在此之前，摩根士丹利也指出，在盈利温和增长、估值在更高水平上企稳的背景下，中国在全球科技竞赛中站 稳脚跟，相关指数整体仍具备相对温和的上行空间。摩根大通则将中国股票评级上调为"超配"。 从资金流向来看，国际金融协会数据显示，2025年前10个月，境外资金流入中国股市规模达506亿美元，这一 数字已远超2024年全年的114亿美元。另据申万宏源策略的最新数据，截止到2025年11月26日，过去一周来 看，内资和外资均大幅流入中国股市。 外资巨头最新发声 12月1日，瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟磊发表中国股票策略观点，认为2026年全部A股盈利增速有望从今 年的6%进一步升至8%。 孟磊预计，由于名义GDP增速提升和PPI跌幅收窄推升企业营收增速，且支持政策的推出以及"反内卷"的推进 带动利润率复苏，2026年全部A股盈利增速有望从今年的6%进一步升至8%。 孟磊称，中期来看，增量的宏观政策、A ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, the development of non - ferrous related industries will prioritize high - quality development, resolve supply - side involution, reduce ineffective supply, and control smelting - end production capacity. Copper, aluminum and other non - ferrous metals and new energy materials will continue to benefit from the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries and the booming development of emerging and future industries. The industrial pattern of non - ferrous and new energy varieties will be further improved and optimized, and price trends will be more boosted by the supply and demand sides [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 "Importance of the 15th Five - Year Plan Period" The 15th Five - Year Plan period is crucial for basically realizing socialist modernization, serving as a connecting link between the past and the future. It is necessary to consolidate advantages, break through bottlenecks, and strengthen weak points. Adhering to high - quality development is particularly important for the non - ferrous metal industry pattern [6]. 3.2 "Main Goals and Industrial System Planning of the 15th Five - Year Plan" - **Main Goals**: The main goals include significant achievements in high - quality development, a substantial increase in the level of scientific and technological self - reliance, new breakthroughs in further comprehensive deep - seated reforms, a notable improvement in social civilization, continuous improvement in people's living standards, new major progress in building a beautiful China, and a more solid national security barrier. High - quality development is prioritized, and the non - ferrous metal industry will focus on high - quality development, addressing supply - side issues and strengthening effective demand. The goal of a substantial increase in scientific and technological self - reliance highlights the importance of science and technology, which will drive the high - quality development of the non - ferrous new energy industry [8][11][12]. - **Industrial System Planning Clues for Non - Ferrous Metals**: In the industrial system planning, traditional industries such as mining and metallurgy related to non - ferrous metals will continue supply - side reforms. Emerging and future industries, such as new energy and quantum technology, will drive the demand for non - ferrous and new energy materials. Non - ferrous metals and new energy materials will benefit from the development of both traditional and emerging/future industries [14][15][16]. 3.3 "Prospects for Non - Ferrous Metal Terminal Industries in the 15th Five - Year Plan" - **Wind Power, Photovoltaic and Grid Energy Storage**: The 15th Five - Year Plan aims to accelerate the construction of a new energy system. The scale of new energy installations is expected to reach a new high, and the demand for energy storage and grid investment will increase to support the consumption and stable operation of new energy [17][20]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: The 15th Five - Year Plan emphasizes green development. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is expected to further increase. Although the growth rate may decline, new energy vehicles will remain an important driver of the domestic economy [21][23]. - **AI Industry**: The 15th Five - Year Plan has higher requirements for scientific and technological self - reliance. The development of the AI industry will drive the growth of semiconductor chips and increase the demand for energy storage in AI data centers, becoming a new growth engine for non - ferrous and new energy materials [24].

Group 1 - UBS Securities analyst Meng Lei predicts that the overall A-share profit growth rate will increase from 6% this year to 8% by 2026 [1] - The current equity risk premium in the A-share market is still higher than the historical average, while other emerging markets are significantly below their long-term averages [1] - Factors such as macro policy support, accelerated A-share profit growth, declining risk-free interest rates, and continuous inflow of long-term capital will contribute to further valuation increases in the A-share market [1] Group 2 - Recent short-term factors have caused a pullback in the A-share market, but these concerns do not alter the medium-term trend of valuation improvement [1] - The global strategy team at UBS believes that global tech stocks are likely to rise further next year, with recent trading proportions of large tech stocks returning to below this year's average levels [1] - Investment themes to watch in 2026 include technological self-reliance, consumer spending driven by corporate profit acceleration, and the ongoing "anti-involution" trend [1] Group 3 - In terms of style allocation, the "growth" style is expected to outperform the "value" style due to positive mid-term market outlook [2] - The "cyclical" style is anticipated to outperform the "defensive" style as the ongoing "anti-involution" trend narrows PPI declines and accelerates industrial profits [2] - Tactical preferences favor industries benefiting from China's innovation, ample market liquidity, and narrowing PPI declines [2]

【盘面分析】 创业板： 【大盘预判】 上证指数周一出现高开红盘震荡的走势，始终没有气势磅礴的突破行情，所以个股也是走得犹犹豫豫。当前宏观背景仍偏支持新兴成长板块，包括宏观经济 有待继续修复、产业技术迭代较快、产业政策注重创新、并购重组和IPO相关政策继续对科创企业予以鼓励等，与此同时大市值新兴成长企业占比增加，对 大小盘的影响相比以往更均衡。接下来注意上证指数能否在3900点之上稳住。 近期A股市场开始跟随外盘进行反弹，然而每次高开后并未高走，反而出现高开低走的局面，这说明机构资金和量化资金在借机减仓，这也就表明"开盘追 高、收盘吃面"的情况会频繁出现。现阶段美联储是否会在12月降息已经不是重点，外盘经济复苏是非常明显的，欧美股市有望继续反弹再创新高，只不过 这个月同样面临着圣诞节休市的问题。骑牛看熊认为当下行情机会看似很多，实则赚钱效应并不好，这里还是应该先考虑处理手中的持仓标的，再来进行布 局，盲目上仓位"赌未来"是不可取的！ 骑牛看熊发现当前市场对12月份美联储降息仍有分歧，但会议前期留给美联储平衡降息与否的时间已经较短，会议前期市场博弈或加剧，但根据目前CME Fed Watch 概率模型可以看出市场 ...