Report Highlights 1. Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core Views - Before the Fed's interest rate meeting, U.S. Treasury yields showed signs of decline. The market is waiting for the meeting's outcome. If the Fed unexpectedly cuts interest rates or if Fed Chair Powell is removed, it will be beneficial for the gold price. The silver price has reached a record high, but the photovoltaic sector's weakness may suppress it in the future [1][8][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Conditions - **Futures**: On July 29, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract closed at 771.44 yuan/gram, down 0.43% from the previous trading day. The Shanghai silver futures main contract closed at 9,195 yuan/kg, down 0.18% from the previous trading day [2] - **U.S. Treasury Bonds**: On July 29, 2025, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield was 4.42%, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The 10-2 year spread was 0.48%, down 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] 3.2 Position and Volume Changes - **Last Trading Day's Volume**: The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 275,105 lots, down 16.66% from the previous trading day. The total trading volume of Shanghai silver contracts was 738,850 lots, down 52.79% from the previous trading day [4] - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 956.23 tons from the previous trading day, while the silver ETF holdings increased by 14.13 tons to 15,173.92 tons [5] 3.3 Arbitrage Tracking - **Spot-Futures Spread**: On July 29, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -1.96 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -680.01 yuan/kg [6] - **Gold-Silver Ratio**: The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 83.90, down 0.25% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 86.39, up 0.30% from the previous trading day [6] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Shanghai Gold Exchange**: On July 29, 2025, the trading volume of gold was 37,834 kg, up 9.01% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 461,672 kg, down 27.55% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 14,762 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 6,900 kg [7]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-30 美债收益率显著回落提振市场，静待议 息会议指引 议息会议前⼣市场交投相对清淡，美元指数短线强势反弹，但贵⾦属对此 反应甚微，隔夜美国公布的职位空缺数低于预期，美债收益率显著⾛低， 对市场形成提振。后续来看，经贸不确定性短期下降，关税逐渐成为慢变 量，关注美国基本⾯及降息预期变化，本周美国⾮农数据及7⽉降息会议 上美联储的表达较为重要。 重点资讯： 1）美国6月JOLTs职位空缺743.7万人，预期750万人，前值由776.9万 人修正为771.2万人。 2）美国总统特朗普发布信函称将自8月1日起对巴西产品征收50%的关 税。对于大量进口巴西咖啡豆的美国咖啡行业来说，这一关税政策给 他们造成严重冲击。 3）IMF将全球经济情况描述为"在持续的不确定性中，保持脆弱的韧 性"。IMF预计2025年全球经济增长率为3.0%，2026年为3. 1%。此外，IMF预计全球整体通胀率将在2025年降至4.2%，在2026年 降至3.6%。IMF将中国2025年的增长率较4月WEO预期上调了0.8个百分 点，达到4.8%。IMF ...

每经AI快讯，周二（7月29日），美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌5.66个基点报3.867%，3年 期美债收益率跌5.63个基点报3.818%，5年期美债收益率跌6.85个基点报3.898%，10年期美债收益率跌 8.75个基点报4.322%，30年期美债收益率跌10.22个基点报4.856%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S. Treasury yields have declined across various maturities, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment or market conditions [1] Group 2 - The 30-year Treasury yield decreased by 10 basis points to 4.86% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 9 basis points to 4.32% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield dropped by 5 basis points to 3.88% [1]

三年期美债收益率跌5.36个基点，五年期没在收益率跌6.34个基点，七年期没知识收益率跌7.89个基 点。 2/10年期美债收益率利差跌2.662个基点，报+45.123个基点。 周二（7月29日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率跌7.95个基点，报4.3303%，日内至北京时间17:25 持续窄幅震荡于4.42%下方，随后开始下跌，北京时间01:02跌至4.3223%刷新日低。 两年期美债收益率跌5.05个基点，报3.8750%，16:54短暂地微幅转涨至3.9262%刷新日高，随后持续走 低。 20年期美债收益率跌9.13个基点，30年期美债收益率跌9.00个基点。 ...

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.42%, while the 2-year yield remained stable at 3.91%, resulting in a widening of the yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year bonds by 2 basis points to 51 basis points [1] - The European Union announced a temporary trade agreement, reducing tariffs on U.S. imports to 15%, indicating a de-escalation in trade tensions [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate between 4.25% and 4.50%, with a 97% probability of no change according to futures markets [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury Department projected a significant increase in federal borrowing for the third quarter, raising expectations to $1.01 trillion, nearly double the previous estimate from April [3] - Multiple economic data releases are anticipated this week, including job vacancy surveys and non-farm payroll reports, which will provide insights into the impact of tariffs on inflation [3] - In the overseas bond market, European bonds showed little volatility, with German government bonds trending upward while French bonds mostly declined [4]

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.42%, while the 30-year yield increased to 4.96%, reflecting investor expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current interest rate of 4.25% - 4.50%, with a 97% probability of no change according to futures markets [4] - The upcoming economic data releases include job vacancies, ADP employment report, weekly unemployment claims, and the non-farm payroll report, which will be closely monitored by traders [4][5] Group 2 - A temporary trade agreement between the EU and the U.S. has been announced, reducing proposed tariffs on EU goods from 30% to 15%, which may ease trade tensions [3] - The U.S. Treasury Department has significantly raised its borrowing expectations for Q3 to $1.01 trillion, nearly doubling the previous estimate of $554 billion due to increased bond issuance following the debt ceiling increase [5] - The issuance of $154 billion in bonds by the U.S. Treasury includes $80 billion in 6-week bills, $44 billion in 7-year notes, and $30 billion in 2-year floating rate notes [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 2.40 basis points, reaching 4.4118%, while European stocks opened significantly lower before rebounding after a few hours of volatility [1] Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yields - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 2.40 basis points to 4.4118% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 0.45 basis points to 3.9277% [1] - The spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields widened by 2.162 basis points, now at +48.198 basis points [1] Group 2: European Market Reaction - European stocks opened significantly lower, hitting a daily low of 4.4660% [1] - After approximately three hours of fluctuations, European stocks experienced a rebound [1]

两年期美债收益率涨0.70个基点，报3.9232%，本周累涨5.41个基点，7月22日跌至3.8207%之后反弹， 一度逼近3.93%。 周五（7月25日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率跌0.79个基点，报4.3878%，本周累计下跌2.77 个基点，7月22日跌至4.3262%之后反弹，一度逼近4.44%。 ...

在近期的金融市场上，美债收益率呈现短线攀升的走势，引发了投资者和经济学家的广泛关注。美债收益率是全球金融市场的重要风向标之一，它不仅反映 了美国国债的利息回报，也在一定程度上揭示了市场对美国经济未来走势的预期。美债收益率的变化，尤其是短期内的攀升，常常被视为市场对美联储货币 政策变化的反应，甚至可能意味着紧缩政策的提前布局。 美债收益率的上升，尤其是在短期债券市场上的表现，往往会直接影响到资本市场的风险偏好。长期以来，美联储一直采取宽松的货币政策，通过低利率和 量化宽松等手段刺激经济复苏。随着美国经济逐渐走出疫情阴影，通胀压力不断加大，市场对美联储是否会加快紧缩的节奏充满了讨论。近期美债收益率的 快速攀升，恰恰反映了市场对美联储货币政策转向的预期。 济数据来判断市场的反应。 美债收益率的短期攀升，确实反映了市场对紧缩预期的反应。虽然美联储的货币政策调整尚未完全明确，但市场已经提前对这一变化做出了反应。这种提前 反应既是市场对未来经济形势的预测，也是资本市场对于利率变化的敏感表现。在这种背景下，投资者在做出决策时，需要更加谨慎，密切关注美联储和全 球经济的变化，以便及时调整投资策略，迎接可能到来的市场波动。 当 ...