Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned negative, while Index B showed seasonal decline, indicating stable economic growth momentum[1] - Consumer sector performance improved, while real estate remained stable and investment showed a decline[1] - Index B standardized decreased by 0.14, aligning with historical averages[1] Price Trends - Food and non-food prices increased, with July CPI expected to rise by approximately 0.5% month-on-month, maintaining a year-on-year rate of 0.1%[2] - PPI is projected to remain flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline expected to reach -3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, suggesting a potential rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index next week[1][18] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of July 18, 2025, is 2.24%, compared to the current average of 1.65%[19] Key Economic Data - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth stands at 3.70%[3] - Retail sales year-on-year growth for the month is at 6.40%[3] - Export growth for the month is recorded at 4.80%[3] - M2 money supply growth is at 7.90%[3]

2. 周二：①数据： 中国第二季度GDP、中国6月社会消费品零售总额、规模以上工业增加值。 美国6月 CPI、美国7月纽约联储制造业指数。加拿大6月CPI。②事件：1000亿元1年期中期借贷便利到期。国家 统计局公布70个大中城市住宅销售价格月度报告。 国新办就2025年上半年国民经济运行情况举行新闻 发布会。国内成品油将开启新一轮调价窗口。欧佩克月报。美联储官员柯林斯、鲍曼讲话。③财报：摩 根大通、花旗。 3. 周三：①数据： 美国6月PPI，美国API、EIA原油库存周报。英国6月CPI。欧元区5月贸易帐。②事 件： 美联储官员巴尔、柯林斯、洛根、哈玛克发表讲话。英国央行行长贝利发表讲话。③财报：摩根 士丹利、美国银行、高盛、阿斯麦。 金十数据整理：下周重要事件与数据预告——美国CPI和零售数据、中国GDP和贸易帐 1. 周一：①数据： 中国6月贸易帐、货币供应、社融、新增人民币贷款、全社会用电量。②事件： 美国 总统特朗普计划就俄罗斯问题发表"重大声明"。国新办分别就2025年上半年进出口情况、金融统计数据 情况举行新闻发布会。 5. 周五：①数据： 美国7月一年期通胀率预期初值、密歇根大学消费者信心指 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Russia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 9.4% year-on-year in June, which aligns with expectations [1] - The month-on-month CPI for June rose by 0.2%, slightly below the expected increase of 0.23% [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a collective decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.52%, Nasdaq down 0.02%, and S&P 500 down 0.30% as of the report [1] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with NIO rising over 9% and Meituan, Xpeng Motors, and Kingsoft Cloud increasing over 1%, while Tencent Music, Bilibili, and Beike fell over 1% and Beike dropped over 3% [1] Group 2: Commodity Insights - The CEO of Barrick Gold expressed optimism about the long-term prospects of copper despite short-term price fluctuations caused by US tariffs, noting that COMEX copper futures reached a historical high while LME copper prices fell over 2% [2] Group 3: Company Developments - Tesla announced the opening of its first experience center in India on July 15, marking its official entry into the Indian market, showcasing popular models like Model 3 and Model Y [6] - Salia reported a 50% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of the fiscal year 2025, reaching 7.7 billion yen, exceeding market expectations, driven by low prices attracting more customers [7]

Economic Indicators - In June 2025, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from a four-month decline, primarily due to a recovery in industrial consumer goods prices[9] - The core CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest increase in nearly 14 months, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point expansion from the previous month[9] - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with some industry prices stabilizing, influenced by seasonal declines in raw material manufacturing[12] Market Trends - The major domestic indices showed mixed performance, with the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.8% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.4% over the past week[20] - The trading volume in the two markets is projected to reach 5,000 billion yuan by March 2025, indicating a steady increase in market activity[27] Commodity Insights - Gold prices are expected to rise due to geopolitical tensions and anticipated continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may enhance inflation expectations[17] - Copper prices are supported by strong demand growth exceeding 10% in the first half of the year, with supply growth expected to decline to below 1% for the year[19]

智通财经7月11日电，法国6月CPI同比增长1%，预期0.9%；6月CPI环比增长0.4%，预期0.3%。 ...

Market Overview - In the past five trading days (July 4 - July 10), major indices mostly rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.40% and the ChiNext Index rising by 1.18% [2] - The average daily trading volume decreased to 1.42 trillion yuan, down by 180.52 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [2] - Among industries, real estate, media, and comprehensive sectors saw the highest gains, while non-ferrous metals, defense, and home appliances experienced the largest declines [2] Inflation and Price Trends - On July 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released June inflation data, showing that the CPI year-on-year growth turned positive, with a marginal reduction in the month-on-month decline [2] - The PPI continued to decline both year-on-year and month-on-month in June, with expectations of ongoing negative growth due to global demand uncertainties and seasonal factors affecting domestic pricing [3] Policy Developments - The "anti-involution" initiative has expanded its scope, with preliminary effects observed. On July 7, 33 construction-related state-owned and private enterprises jointly called for resisting "involutionary" competition [3] - The solar industry has shown positive price signals, with polysilicon prices rising by 33.3% since the beginning of July, indicating a potential supply-side clearing [3] Investment Strategy - The decline in PPI indicates continued short-term profit pressures for companies, but the effectiveness of the "anti-involution" policy strengthens medium to long-term profit recovery expectations [4] - Future market trends will depend on the balance between weak short-term performance and strong long-term expectations, with potential for continued upward movement if economic data does not show significant decline [4] Industry Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the banking sector are driven by multiple measures to encourage insurance capital entry and a low interest rate environment [4] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive supply-side clearing, presenting recovery opportunities in the power equipment and building materials sectors [4] - The TMT sector, pharmaceuticals, and defense industries may present thematic investment opportunities due to AI trends and international expansion [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China's headline CPI inflation increased to +0.1% year-over-year (yoy) in June from -0.1% yoy in May, driven by rising non-food goods prices [1][4] - Headline PPI inflation fell to -3.6% yoy in June from -3.3% yoy in May, primarily due to declining commodity prices, indicating deeper deflationary pressures [1][10] - The full-year PPI inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to -2.8% and -1.0% yoy respectively, reflecting weaker-than-expected PPI data [1][11] Summary by Sections Consumer Price Index (CPI) - CPI rose to +0.1% yoy in June from -0.1% yoy in May, with a month-on-month (mom) annualized increase of +1.9% [2][4] - Food inflation slightly improved to -0.3% yoy in June from -0.4% yoy in May, with pork prices falling by 8.5% yoy [5][8] - Non-food CPI inflation increased to +0.1% yoy in June from 0.0% yoy in May, with household item prices rising by 0.6% yoy [6][9] Producer Price Index (PPI) - PPI inflation decreased to -3.6% yoy in June from -3.3% yoy in May, with significant declines in upstream sector prices [10][11] - The NBS attributed the deeper PPI deflation to falling export prices and seasonal declines in raw materials [10] - PPI inflation for producer goods fell to -4.4% yoy in June, while consumer goods remained flat at -1.4% yoy [10] Trade Data Forecast - The report anticipates a 6.0% yoy increase in exports for June, up from 4.8% yoy in May, and a 2.0% yoy rise in imports, contrasting with a decline of -3.4% yoy in May [12]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: Focus on the economic outlook as Federal Reserve officials, including Waller and Daly, are scheduled to speak on July 11, 2025 [2] - Key Point 2: Key economic data releases from the UK include May GDP, manufacturing output, trade balance, and industrial output, all set to be announced at 14:00 [2] - Key Point 3: France's final CPI for June will be released at 14:45, while Switzerland's consumer confidence index for June will be available at 15:00 [2] Group 2 - Key Point 1: The IEA will publish its monthly oil market report at 16:00, which may provide insights into global oil supply and demand trends [2] - Key Point 2: Canada's employment numbers for June will be released at 20:30, which could impact market sentiment regarding the Canadian economy [2] - Key Point 3: The total number of oil rigs in the US will be reported for the week ending July 11 at 01:00 the following day, indicating activity levels in the oil sector [2]

CPI Outlook for the Second Half of the Year - The core CPI has been rising since the beginning of the year, with June's core CPI at 0.7%, the highest since May 2024, driven mainly by core goods rather than services [2] - Service retail growth has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% from January to May 2025, significantly lower than the 20% and 6.2% growth rates in 2023 and 2024 respectively [2] - The core goods CPI is expected to remain resilient in Q3, supported by the "old-for-new" policy, while facing high base pressure in Q4 [5][6] Service Prices - Service prices have shown a downward trend since 2020, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.4% expected in 2025 [8] - Tourism prices have weakened significantly, with a monthly average growth rate of -0.4% from January to June 2025, indicating a bottleneck in domestic cultural and tourism consumption recovery [9] Food Prices - Food items account for about 18% of the CPI, with pork prices being particularly volatile due to the pig cycle [13] - Pork prices are expected to remain low in Q3, with a potential slight recovery in Q4 as seasonal demand increases [14] Oil Prices - Oil-related products account for approximately 3.5% of the CPI, with Brent crude oil prices averaging $71.9 per barrel in the first half of the year, down 14.7% year-on-year [18] - Oil prices are expected to face downward pressure in the second half due to weak demand and ongoing supply pressures [19] PPI Outlook for the Second Half of the Year - The PPI has been in negative territory for 33 consecutive months, with significant price pressures across various industries [20] - Real estate investment and traditional infrastructure growth are dragging down building materials prices, contributing to a 0.9 percentage point decline in PPI [21] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to impact prices in certain industries, potentially providing some support to related commodity prices [29] Overall Economic Indicators - The forecast for PPI in the second half of the year is a slight recovery to around -2.3%, with Q3 PPI growth expected at -2.5% [30] - The GDP growth target for the second half of the year is set at 4.6%-4.7% to achieve an annual growth rate of 5.3%-5.4% [30]