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十大券商看后市:节前情绪或以避险为主,节后资金大概率将持续回流
Feng Huang Wang· 2025-09-29 00:32
拉长时间线看,兴业证券进一步指出,经历9月以来一段时间的震荡、消化后,新一轮上行动能正在蓄 势,接下来10月市场中枢有望再上台阶。申万宏源证券也表示,A股中期没有下行风险,短期调整也不 是大级别,调整兑现后,"红十月"是大概率。 配置方面,科技板块仍然是多家券商看好的方向。国泰海通证券表示,配置方面风格不切换,新兴科技 依然是主线。 "科创成长行情或未显示明显结束迹象,叠加'反内卷'政策升温,新科技与顺周期可均衡配置。"浙商证 券称。 中信证券:关注资源安全、企业出海和科技竞争 智通财经搜集了10家券商的观点,大部分券商认为,结合日历效应来看,节前投资者情绪或以避险为 主,节后伴随着政策面、基本面逐步明朗,资金大概率会持续回流。 银河证券表示,本轮行情主要推动力来自流动性宽松和政策预期向好,目前指数仍处上行第二阶段,长 假前缩量属正常避险,节后伴随着政策面、基本面逐步明朗,资金大概率会持续回流,不宜因短期波动 加剧而大幅调降总仓位。 "结合日历效应来看,节前投资者情绪或以避险为主。但考虑到资金的正反馈仍在持续、基本面改善仍 在蓄势,市场或偏向缩量震荡。"华泰证券指出。 资源安全、企业出海和科技竞争依然是最重要 ...
一个技术意义上的“影子中国”正在出现|品牌新事
吴晓波频道· 2025-09-29 00:29
文 / 飞机 "人世间数百万个闲暇的小时流逝过去,方始出现一个真正的历史性时刻。" 茨威格的这句话,很适用于 1776年。这一年,三件看起来毫不相干的大事同步发生:亚当·斯密出版了《国富论》,美国的国父们发表了《独立宣 言》,瓦特制造了世界上第一台蒸汽机。 《国富论》发布前的 300年,哥伦布开启大航海时代,由此形成的"大西洋自由贸易经济圈",是全球化贸易的母体,也是《国富论》的灵感来源; 瓦特的蒸汽机则吹响了工业革命的第一声号角,人类自此掌握了超越自身百倍、万倍乃至无穷的动能。 当科技与大西洋自由市场经济交汇,释放出了惊人的力量,财富快速膨胀,新生产力不断涌现 ——这一年成了人类文明的分水岭。 茨威格的这句话,放在当下的中国来看,亦愈发应景。 9月25日,一场主题为"生而全球·AI时代的中企出海"峰会在云栖大会召开,为一个初见端倪的新分水岭时刻,留下生动注脚。 吴老师在峰会的开场白,便是从引用《国富论》里的名句开始。 一场听到"炮声"的峰会 在去年年终秀上,吴老师将 "生而全球"的企业出海浪潮和人工智能革命视作这一代中国创业者最为重要的两个"百年机遇",而这场峰会恰好将两 大机遇点交集于一处。 现场他说道: ...
十大券商一周策略:持股过节性价比较高,10月新一轮上行正在蓄势
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-09-28 22:37
Group 1: Resource Security and Corporate Globalization - Resource security, corporate globalization, and technological competition are the most important structural market clues, corresponding to the industry allocation framework of resources, globalization, and new productive forces [2] - The essence of the resource sector's market drive is the insufficient investment in traditional resource industries under a high global interest rate environment, leading to supply constraints [2] - The stability of the trade environment and China's anti-involution are crucial conditions for maintaining the market, with the APEC meeting in October and the 20th National Congress being significant verification points [2] Group 2: Technology Competition - Chinese companies are shifting from strategic restraint to strategic advancement in the context of intensified Sino-U.S. technological competition [2] - The future AI competition is expected to spread from the cloud to edge devices, potentially reconstructing the established mobile internet application ecosystem and creating significant business opportunities [2] Group 3: Market Trends and Performance - The market is expected to experience a key window period with the upcoming 20th National Congress focusing on the "14th Five-Year Plan," which may enhance market risk appetite [5] - The liquidity is anticipated to continue improving, with the margin financing balance in an upward channel, supporting the overall market [5] - The market is currently in a phase of cautious sentiment, with a slight decline in trading activity, but the overall upward trend remains intact [4] Group 4: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - Key sectors expected to see improved or sustained high growth in Q3 include mid-to-high-end manufacturing, AI industry chain, and certain resource products [3] - The focus for investment opportunities is on themes such as new productive forces, anti-involution, and large consumption sectors [5] - The semiconductor, new energy, humanoid robots, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals are highlighted as sectors with structural prosperity [6][11]
企业出海发展意愿更大了
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-09-28 20:18
中国贸促会9月28日发布数据显示,8月,全国贸促系统累计签发原产地证书、ATA单证册、商事证明书 等各类证书72.64万份,较上年同比增长23.54%,印证了我国外贸延续平稳增长态势。 "全国贸促系统优惠原产地证书的签证金额、份数实现大幅双增长,充分表明我国广大外贸企业正积极 拓展多元市场、优化产品结构,通过高质量供给有效适配国际市场需求,也充分证明我国外贸发展韧性 强、活力足,竞争新优势正不断凝聚。"中国贸促会新闻发言人王冠男表示。 近年来,中国积极推进高水平对外开放,加快构建新发展格局,产业链供应链国际合作持续深化。"相 信大家都看到了,中国企业国际竞争力更强了,国际视野更广了,企业出海发展的意愿也更大了。"王 冠男说。 自2024年以来,中国贸促会组织全国贸促系统力量,依托贸促会海外代表处和全球394个多双边工商合 作机制,开展服务企业的"千团出海"行动。2024年,共组织2249批次团组赴102个国家和地区考察洽 谈,相当于平均每天有6个企业团组出国进行商务洽谈。今年以来,中国贸促会审批组展单位出国展览 项目1623个,计划办展面积95万平方米。截至目前,实际执行出国展览项目970项,涉及64个组展单 ...
【十大券商一周策略】持股过节,性价比较高!10月新一轮上行正在蓄势
券商中国· 2025-09-28 15:09
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes resource security, corporate globalization, and technological competition as the main structural market clues, with a focus on resource allocation in the context of new productive forces [2] - The resource sector is driven by insufficient investment in traditional resource industries under a high global interest rate environment, leading to supply constraints [2] - The corporate globalization of Chinese companies is seen as a crucial but subtle fundamental aspect of the current market, with the stability of trade environments and the reduction of internal competition being key conditions [2] Group 2 - The third quarter is expected to show improved or sustained high growth in specific sectors, particularly in mid-to-high-end manufacturing and the AI industry chain [3] - Key sectors include battery manufacturing, military electronics, and AI-related components, which are anticipated to benefit from a recovering PPI and resilient export growth [3] - Resource products such as fluorochemicals, copper, and gold are also expected to see price increases due to improved supply-demand dynamics [3] Group 3 - The market is currently experiencing short-term volatility, but the overall trend remains positive, with structural opportunities still prominent [5] - The upcoming important meetings, such as the 20th National Congress, are expected to serve as critical points for market validation and potential recovery in risk appetite [5] - The focus for investment opportunities is on themes like new productive forces, consumer sectors, and areas benefiting from the reduction of internal competition [5] Group 4 - The market is expected to maintain a strong upward trend post-National Day, with historical patterns suggesting a favorable environment for stocks after holidays [6] - The focus is shifting towards sectors with structural growth, particularly in technology, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6] - The market's liquidity is anticipated to remain favorable, supported by ongoing improvements in macroeconomic conditions [6] Group 5 - The market is likely to experience a "red October," with continued support from long-term policy layouts and technological catalysts [8] - The technology sector is expected to maintain a dominant trend, with significant opportunities arising from new catalysts and structural changes [8] - The focus on anti-involution is seen as a key factor in transitioning from a structural bull market to a more comprehensive bull market [8] Group 6 - The current bull market is characterized by a lack of clear bubble signals, with strong structural features and a focus on key indicators [9] - The market is expected to remain in a strong oscillating state around the National Day, with no significant downturn risks anticipated [9] - The transition from a technology-driven growth model to one that includes export and globalization is being highlighted as a future trend [13]
一站式服务全球人才与企业 上海静安“国际会客厅”启用
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-28 12:20
Core Insights - The Shanghai Jing'an International Salon has been inaugurated, aiming to provide a comprehensive service platform for global talent and enterprises, facilitating international connections and development [1][2] - The "New Outbound Academy" curriculum system has been launched, focusing on enhancing global leadership and providing support for enterprises at various stages of their outbound activities [3][4] Service Offerings - The International Salon will offer three core service functions: international talent service center, outbound service center for global service providers, and convenience service center for overseas personnel, integrating over 500 service items [1][2] - A "one-stop" service model will be implemented for international talent, covering foreign work permits, policy consultation, and lifestyle guidance [2] - The outbound service will include comprehensive consulting and information support for enterprises, including policies and project licensing [2][3] Additional Features - Eight "one-time handling" service packages will be provided, catering to various talent and enterprise needs, including travel, residency, and investment services [3] - The "New Outbound Academy" will focus on "migratable knowledge assets," "linkable global resources," and "implementable policy innovations," offering a full-cycle support service for enterprises [3][4] Events and Discussions - The first salon event of the "New Outbound Academy" featured discussions on risks and opportunities in US-China economic cooperation, highlighting investment trends and risk management strategies for Chinese enterprises [4] - The Jing'an International Salon aims to continuously optimize services and explore innovative models to enhance its role as a high-level service platform for international business [4]
中信证券:资源安全、企业出海和科技竞争依然是市场最重要结构性行情线索
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-28 11:49
Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities emphasizes that resource security, Chinese enterprises going global, and technological competition will be key drivers of market structural trends in the foreseeable future. These themes correspond to an industry allocation framework of resources, globalization, and new productive forces [1]. Group 1: Resource Security - Traditional resource industries are facing frequent supply shocks due to insufficient investment in a high-interest-rate environment, particularly in developed countries where private sector investment remains weak [1]. - The capital expenditure of traditional industrial enterprises in Europe and the U.S. has been low, with Japan's machine tool orders to Europe and the U.S. showing 28 consecutive months of negative growth [1]. - Predictions for major copper mining companies indicate a downward adjustment in production forecasts from 14.89 million tons to 14.21 million tons for 2025, with growth rates dropping from 6.4% to 0.6% [1]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions and national security policies are leading to more frequent supply shocks, as seen in the Democratic Republic of Congo's new cobalt export policies and Indonesia's tightening of nickel exports [2]. - Countries rich in strategic resources are increasingly recognizing the unsustainability of long-term low pricing and are controlling supply to maintain favorable price levels [2]. Group 3: Enterprises Going Global - The globalization of Chinese enterprises is a core fundamental driver of the current market, with companies generating over 20% of their revenue from overseas contributing 40% of profits and 37% of market capitalization [3]. - The return on equity (ROE) for non-financial A-share companies with significant overseas revenue has increased from around 7% in early 2022 to about 10%, while other companies' ROE has declined from 9% to around 6% [3]. - A stable trade environment is crucial for the sustainability of Chinese enterprises' globalization efforts, with the recent A-share market rally linked to improved trade relations following negotiations [4]. Group 4: Technological Competition - Chinese tech giants are increasingly clarifying their AI strategies, with significant investments announced by companies like Alibaba and Tencent, indicating a shift towards aggressive AI infrastructure development [6]. - The global AI investment market is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.9% from 2025 to 2029, highlighting the competitive landscape [6]. - The potential shift of AI focus from cloud to edge computing presents significant opportunities for domestic applications, allowing for a resurgence in the Chinese mobile internet sector [7].
事关企业出海,中国贸促会回答《证券日报》记者提问
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-09-28 09:10
9月28日,中国贸促会举行9月例行新闻发布会,介绍了中国贸促会支持中国企业出海方面的工作考虑和 相关举措等。 近期召开的国务院常务会议强调,要着眼于为出海企业参与国际合作与竞争提供有力支撑,进一步完善 海外综合服务体系。 中国贸促会新闻发言人王冠男在回答《证券日报》记者提问时表示,近年来,随着中国积极推进高水平 制度型开放,加快构建"双循环"新发展格局,产业链供应链国际合作持续深化,中国企业国际竞争力更 强了,国际视野更广了,企业出海发展的意愿也更大了。 据王冠男介绍,自2024年以来,中国贸促会组织全国贸促系统力量,依托贸促会海外代表处和全球394 个多双边工商合作机制,开展服务企业的"千团出海"行动,2024年,共组织2249批次团组赴102个国家 和地区考察洽谈,相当于平均每天有6个企业团组出国进行商务洽谈。今年以来,中国贸促会审批组展 单位出国展览项目1623个,计划办展面积95万平方米。截至目前,实际执行出国展览项目970项,涉及 64个组展单位和51个国别,展出面积近50万平方米,参展企业3.4万多家。 "可以说,我们去到哪里,就把企业带到哪里;企业走到哪里,我们的服务也跟到哪里。"王冠男说。 王 ...
事关企业出海,中国贸促会发声
9月28日,中国贸促会举行9月例行新闻发布会。中国贸促会新闻发言人王冠男在发布会上表示,中国贸 促会正与相关金融、保险机构研究制定支持企业出海的相关配套服务措施。 搭建更多出海平台。不断增强链博会推动产业链供应链国际合作功能,继续组织全国贸促系统"千团出 海"行动,支持推动企业海外参展办展,组织企业参与多双边工商活动,深化与重点市场和"一带一 路"共建国家的务实合作。 提供优质商法服务。王冠男表示,中国贸促会将进一步提升商法专业服务能力,加强国际合作,切实维 护出海企业合法权益。 优化公共服务。王冠男介绍,今年以来,中国贸促会已组织多场企业出海系列培训,贸法通累计回复企 业咨询超2万次,贸企通发布海外资讯信息近9000条。 "下一步,中国贸促会将牢牢把握服务企业这个根本,丰富服务供给,做优服务平台,为企业参与国际 合作与竞争提供高效、便捷、优质的综合服务。"王冠南说。 搭建更多出海平台 8月全国贸促系统优惠原产地证书 "在当前国际经济合作和竞争局面正在发生深刻变化的大背景下,随着企业出海步伐加快,不确定、难 预料的因素也明显增加,企业对高质量海外综合服务的需求也越来越迫切。中国贸促会将配合相关部门 主动开展工 ...
2025建行跨境撮合节助力豫企扬帆出海
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-09-28 04:42
Group 1 - The event "Digital Silk Road" was officially launched in Zhengzhou, focusing on providing overseas expansion solutions for Henan enterprises [1] - The event is part of the 2025 CCB Cross-Border Matching Festival and the 15th China Henan International Investment and Trade Fair, with over 100 enterprises in attendance [1] - Various stakeholders, including government and financial institutions, participated in discussions to support enterprises in exploring international markets [1] Group 2 - CCB Henan Branch announced ten measures to support "stabilizing foreign trade and foreign investment," offering comprehensive services including cross-border settlement and supply chain financing [2] - The event featured interactive negotiation sessions, facilitating face-to-face discussions between domestic and foreign enterprises, leading to multiple cooperation intentions [2] - CCB has organized over 440 cross-border matching events for more than 27,000 enterprises across 61 countries and regions, helping businesses expand into new markets and secure new orders [2]