Core Viewpoint - The steel industry in China is undergoing significant structural reforms during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a focus on capacity management and production reduction exceeding 100 million tons. The "15th Five-Year Plan" will emphasize controlling new capacity, optimizing existing capacity, mergers and acquisitions, and facilitating the exit of outdated capacity [1][2]. Group 1: Capacity Management and Production - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," the steel industry has reduced production by over 100 million tons and will continue to focus on capacity governance in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1]. - By 2025, China's crude steel production is projected to be 961 million tons, a decrease of 4.4% year-on-year, while pig iron production is expected to be 836 million tons, down 3.0% year-on-year [1]. - The industry aims to strictly control new capacity and ensure the exit of illegal and non-compliant capacity, promoting a continuous optimization of the capacity structure [1][2]. Group 2: Export and Profitability - Despite a decline in domestic consumption, steel exports are expected to reach a record high of 119 million tons in 2025, an increase of 7.5% year-on-year, with an average export price of $694 per ton, down 8.1% year-on-year [1]. - The steel industry's total revenue for key enterprises in 2025 is projected to be 6.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, while total profits are expected to rise by 140% to 115.1 billion yuan [2]. - The industry is experiencing a shift towards profitability, with the main steel business achieving a profit of 44.5 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [2]. Group 3: Industry Consolidation and Collaboration - The industry is accelerating mergers and acquisitions, with major companies like Baowu Steel taking the lead in self-regulating production and inventory [2]. - By 2025, the concentration of the top 10 steel companies is expected to reach 43.1%, an increase of 4.2 percentage points from 2020, indicating a trend towards greater industry consolidation [2]. - The industry is focusing on enhancing collaboration with downstream sectors such as shipbuilding, transportation, and heavy equipment to explore new markets and applications for steel products [3]. Group 4: Green Development and Regulatory Measures - The steel industry is committed to promoting green and low-carbon transformation, aiming to complete ultra-low emission modifications for surplus capacity [3]. - A dynamic public management mechanism for ultra-low emissions will be established, transitioning from energy consumption control to carbon emission control [3]. - The industry will optimize export structures and implement strict management measures for certain steel product export licenses to ensure high-quality development of export trade [3].

Group 1 - As of January 31, 2025, 23 steel companies in the A-share market have disclosed performance forecasts, with approximately 78% expecting improved year-on-year results, including profit growth, turnaround from losses, or reduced losses [1] - Benxi Steel Plate Co., Ltd. forecasts a net loss of 3.83 billion yuan for 2025, a reduction in losses by 239.7 million yuan year-on-year [1] - Anshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. anticipates a net loss of about 4.08 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year reduction in losses of approximately 42.75% [1] - Five companies, including Liuzhou Steel Co., Ltd., expect to turn losses into profits in 2025, while five others, including Jiangsu Shagang Co., Ltd., forecast varying degrees of profit growth [1] Group 2 - The core drivers for the steel industry's transition from losses to profits in 2025 include cost advantages, supply discipline, and unexpected export growth, indicating a shift from a deep adjustment phase to a recovery phase [2] - The significant improvement in the overall operating conditions and profitability of the steel industry is attributed to multiple factors, including structural growth in steel demand driven by manufacturing upgrades, effective control of ineffective supply, and stable or declining raw material prices [2] - The ongoing supply-side structural reforms and implementation of industry regulations are promoting the exit of backward production capacity and facilitating the industry's transition to high-quality development [2] Group 3 - In 2025, China's crude steel production is projected to be 961 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, while steel output is expected to reach 1.446 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [3] - China's steel exports are expected to reach a record high of 119 million tons in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [3] - The steel industry's development model is undergoing profound changes, characterized by "reduction in quantity and optimization of stock" as the industry moves towards a more sustainable growth model [3] Group 4 - Lingyuan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. emphasizes a focus on "reducing quantity and improving quality," aiming for intensive production and efficiency [4] - Benxi Steel Plate Co., Ltd. is committed to an efficiency-centered development approach, enhancing production efficiency and optimizing marketing channels to improve market competitiveness [4] - The industry is expected to transition towards high-end, green, and intelligent production, with accelerated exit of backward capacity and increased application of low-carbon technologies [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [13]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent policy benefits in the service consumption sector, emphasizing the importance of optimizing and expanding service supply to foster new growth points in service consumption. The government's plan includes 12 measures across key and potential areas, aiming to enhance service quality and support economic development [1][3]. - The focus on supply-side structural reforms is expected to stimulate both short-term and long-term consumer demand, promoting a virtuous cycle of employment, income, and consumption, thereby providing long-term support for economic growth [3][7]. - Key areas of focus include transportation, domestic services, cultural tourism, and sports events, with potential areas such as performance services and experiential consumption also highlighted for their growth potential [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Support Areas - The report outlines three main policy support areas with twelve specific measures, including: 1. Transportation services aimed at integrating tourism and enhancing service quality [7]. 2. Domestic services focusing on innovation and skill training [7]. 3. Cultural tourism services that encourage infrastructure development and enhance consumer experiences [7]. Potential Growth Areas - The report identifies potential growth areas such as performance services, sports events, and experiential consumption, which are expected to drive demand in related sectors like accommodation and dining [3][7]. Financial and Structural Support - The report emphasizes the need for a robust support system, including the establishment of standards, credit building, and financial backing to ensure the stable development of service consumption [3][7].

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月29日 哪些领域"反内卷"更值得期待？——2026 年牛市展望系列 3 策略专题研究 证券分析师：吴信坤 021-61761046 wuxinkun@guosen.com.cn S0980525120001 核心结论：①本次反内卷较 16 年供改背景更复杂，需求端内弱外强，供给 端受制造实力与地方非经济决策驱动。②26 年反内卷仍是经济工作重点，参 考 25 年及 16 年行情经验，反内卷行情或仍有可观上行空间。③政策干预角 度看，关注企业配合度高、地方、落地动力强的行业（如钢铁、油服工程、 水泥等）。④从行业自身周期看，关注供需两旺的景气行业（贵金属、化学 原料等），以及供需格局优化领域（养殖业、能源金属等）。 本轮反内卷背景更复杂，行情节奏相对波折。相较于供改，本轮反内卷再供 需背景上更复杂：需求端看，不同于供给侧结构性改革时期，棚改货币化等 强政策刺激快速拉动总需求，本次内需不足的特征更为突出，但外需支撑或 相对有韧性；供给端看，本次供给扩张与我国制造业实力提升有关，地方政 府"非经济"决策进一步加剧产能过剩。在此背景下，从行业结构看，本轮 呈"涉及面广、新兴行业多、民 ...

在时代浪潮的推动下，地方产业如何实现从无到有、从有到优、从优到强的跨越，是一个具有重要理论 意义和实践价值的课题。江苏省盐城市大丰区西团镇，作为"中国抛丸机之乡"，在不足100平方公里的 土地上集聚300余家企业，2024年产业销售额突破30亿元，占据全国40%的市场份额。其发展历程不仅 是一部地方产业的奋斗史，更是区域经济在时代机遇中不断探索、创新与传承的生动写照。本文从历史 逻辑、实践路径与精神内核三个维度，系统梳理了西团镇抛丸机产业的发展经验，以期为新时代地方产 业高质量发展提供借鉴。 技术革新成为供给侧改革的微观实践。面对"低端过剩、高端不足"的产业矛盾，西团镇企业积极响应供 给侧结构性改革战略。2017年，丰特、成越等企业引进大型激光切割机，实现能耗降低、精度提升； 2018年，三星公司引入机器人焊接技术，推动非标产品生产从"人工依赖"转向"智能驱动"。目前，产业 已拥有上百项专利，从"行业跟随者"蜕变为"行业风向标"，这正是对"科学技术是第一生产力"科学论断 的有力印证。 □ 张静思韦炜 历史逻辑：从盐碱洼地到产业高地的跨越 西团镇抛丸机产业从无到有、从弱到强的发展历程，充分印证了理论指导实践、实 ...

Core Viewpoint - The book "Still China: The Confidence and Responsibility to Protect the World" addresses the core issues of the current Chinese economy amidst the ongoing trade war, emphasizing the need for demand-side reforms to support economic transformation and improve livelihoods [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Trade War - The trade war is projected to lead to a maximum tariff of 145% on Chinese goods by 2025, resulting in an average decline of 67% in orders for Chinese export enterprises, with some industries experiencing declines over 80% [3][4]. - The production line utilization rate in export processing zones has dropped to 58%, causing many small and medium-sized enterprises to face cash flow issues and potential closures [3][4]. Group 2: Role of Small and Medium Enterprises - Small and medium-sized enterprises contribute 60% of China's GDP and 80% of employment, making their struggles directly impact the livelihoods of many families [4][6]. Group 3: Need for Reform - The previous focus on supply-side structural reforms, particularly "capacity reduction," has led to unintended consequences, including the shutdown of compliant enterprises, which has been criticized as "self-harm" [6][8]. - The book argues that excess capacity can indicate international competitiveness and should not be viewed solely as a negative factor [6][8]. Group 4: Demand-Side Reform Strategy - The proposed "two-legged approach" emphasizes strengthening international competitiveness in emerging industries while simultaneously implementing demand-side reforms to create living space for those affected by technological changes [8][9]. - Demand-side reforms should focus on investing in public services such as education, healthcare, and elderly care to lower living costs and unleash consumer potential [8][9]. Group 5: Long-term Economic Cycle - Investments in areas like childcare, community elderly care, and vocational training can create jobs in the short term and enhance human capital in the long term, fostering a virtuous cycle of "improved livelihoods—upgraded consumption—industrial upgrading" [9][11]. Group 6: Broader Implications - The book highlights the importance of a multifaceted approach to understanding the economic landscape, urging government officials, business leaders, and aspiring entrepreneurs to avoid a singular perspective in navigating the complexities of the current economic environment [11].

党的二十届四中全会《建议》把坚持人民至上作为"十五五"时期经济社会发展必须遵循的一项原则，提 出"注重在发展中保障和改善民生，在满足民生需求中拓展发展空间"。去年底召开的中央经济工作会议 明确了今年经济工作的重点任务，其中包括"坚持民生为大，努力为人民群众多办实事"。贯彻落实党中 央决策部署，必须把造福人民作为根本价值取向，坚持在发展中保障和改善民生，在保障和改善民生中 开辟高质量发展新境界。 原标题：在满足民生需求中拓展发展空间（深入学习贯彻习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想·学习 《习近平经济文选》第一卷专家谈） 习近平总书记在省部级主要领导干部学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神专题研讨班开班式上强调："经 济发展和社会发展相辅相成，必须协调并进。要把改善民生作为促进社会发展的重点，在发展经济的同 时稳步提高人民生活品质。"在发展中保障和改善民生是中国式现代化的重大任务，《习近平经济文 选》第一卷中的多篇著作都对此作出深刻阐释。比如，《对新常态怎么看，新常态怎么干》指出："要 在经济发展基础上持续改善民生，特别是要提高教育、医疗等基本公共服务数量和质量，推进教育公 平"；《扎实推动共同富裕》指出："只有促进共同 ...

Core Insights - Beijing's GDP is projected to exceed 5 trillion yuan by 2025, achieving a growth rate of 5.4% compared to the previous year, marking a significant milestone in the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2] - The economic growth is achieved amidst a backdrop of reducing non-capital functions and transitioning from extensive to refined development, indicating a high-quality leap in the capital's economy [2] Economic Performance - The manufacturing sectors, particularly computer, communication, and automotive industries, experienced substantial growth rates of 20.2% and 17.7%, respectively, driven by new energy vehicles, consumer electronics, and integrated circuits [3] - The added value of strategic emerging industries and high-tech manufacturing increased by 15.5% and 7.5%, with production of new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries surging by 1.4 times and 1.2 times, respectively [3] Industry Dynamics - The modern service sector grew by 5.8%, nearing 4.5 trillion yuan, reinforcing its role as a stabilizing force in Beijing's economy, showcasing the deep integration of manufacturing and service industries [4] - The growth in high-tech manufacturing is accompanied by a simultaneous boom in productive service industries, indicating a robust industrial ecosystem that enhances resilience against external uncertainties [4] Future Outlook - Despite the rapid growth in emerging sectors, sustained policy support and market cultivation are essential for these sectors to become the backbone of a trillion-yuan economy [5] - Maintaining strategic focus on high-precision and high-tech development is crucial, ensuring the continued leadership of industries like computing and automotive while proactively positioning for future industries [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government aims to strengthen domestic circulation and expand domestic demand through macroeconomic policies, focusing on enhancing consumer capacity and ensuring a balanced supply-demand relationship [1][2]. Group 1: Enhancing Consumer Capacity - The foundation for boosting domestic demand lies in solidifying the "capacity base" for consumer spending, which is driven by real income growth and improved social security [2]. - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the formulation and implementation of urban and rural resident income increase plans to enhance consumer capacity [2]. - To effectively implement the income increase plan, it is essential to stabilize employment, optimize wage distribution, and reform the income distribution system to narrow income gaps [2]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Alignment - Boosting domestic demand requires a focus on supply-side structural reforms to match high-quality supply with upgraded consumer needs [3]. - In the goods consumption sector, companies are encouraged to increase innovation and shift from "scale expansion" to "quality enhancement" to meet personalized and green consumption demands [3]. - In the service consumption sector, breaking down barriers in areas like tourism, healthcare, and home services is crucial, alongside leveraging technology for digital upgrades [3]. Group 3: Dual Empowerment of Consumption and Investment - A synergistic relationship between consumption and investment is vital for a smooth and sustainable domestic demand cycle [3]. - Investment should be directed towards major technological infrastructure and urban renewal to support consumption upgrades and stimulate related sectors [3]. - Encouraging private investment in areas such as artificial intelligence and green energy can significantly contribute to expanding domestic demand [3]. Conclusion - Focusing on people's livelihoods and high-quality development is essential to truly activate consumer potential and drive stable economic growth in China [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the trend of "reducing quantity and increasing quality" in China's inspection and testing industry, with large-scale institutions contributing over 80% of the industry's revenue despite only accounting for about 15% of the total number of institutions [1] - The implementation of a dynamic management system with "entry and exit" mechanisms is underway, including a three-year action plan to optimize national quality inspection centers, aiming to support the establishment of over 20 advanced quality inspection technology platforms and tackle more than 100 key common testing technology challenges [1] - By the end of 2028, the proportion of national quality inspection centers focused on strategic emerging industries such as new-generation information technology, high-end equipment, biomedicine, new energy, new materials, and low-altitude economy is expected to exceed 40% [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of collaborative innovation across the industrial chain, moving away from traditional isolated approaches, and promoting the "quality strong chain" initiative, particularly in cutting-edge fields like "professional chips" [1] - The article discusses the creation of regional innovation hubs, promoting technological co-construction and resource sharing in regions like Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta, to form inspection and testing service clusters that drive high-quality regional economic development [2] - By 2026, the market regulatory authority plans to accelerate the construction of an inspection and testing industry layout that aligns with a modern industrial system, focusing on deepening supply-side structural reforms [2]