Group 1 - The total scale of public funds in China has surpassed 33 trillion yuan for the first time as of the end of April 2023, setting a new historical high [1] - As of April 2023, there are 163 public fund management institutions in China, including 148 fund management companies and 15 asset management institutions with public qualifications, managing a total of 12,705 public fund products [1] - The net asset value of public funds reached 33.12 trillion yuan, with mixed funds, stock funds, bond funds, money market funds, and QDII funds having respective scales of 3.58 trillion yuan, 4.58 trillion yuan, 6.56 trillion yuan, 13.99 trillion yuan, and 644.02 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The public fund industry has shown significant expansion, with the scale surpassing 30 trillion yuan in April 2024, reaching 30.78 trillion yuan, and further increasing to over 31 trillion yuan in May and 32 trillion yuan in September [2] - The number of investors and net inflows into public funds are both on the rise, indicating an increasing recognition of public funds among investors [2] - Public funds are becoming a major force in the asset management industry, with their core advantages being high specialization, flexibility, transparency, and market-oriented operation mechanisms, which collectively form a protective moat for public funds [2]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Public Fund Industry Core Points and Arguments - The expansion of public fund scale is significantly correlated with excess returns, especially in favorable market years. However, current challenges in share and scale growth are evident, with a redemption rate of approximately 10% in Q4 and 2-3% in Q1 of the current year [1][2][3] - Adjusting to narrow-based indices (such as consumption, manufacturing, TMT) can improve the probability of outperforming benchmarks, but the win rate remains below 50%. Over the past three years, more than half of narrow-based index products failed to outperform benchmarks, indicating limited effectiveness of this strategy for excess returns [1][3] - In bond funds, a lower bond content and higher stock content correlate with increased difficulty in outperforming benchmarks. The significantly lower allocation to financial and cyclical sectors compared to index weights is a key factor, with potential for future weight increases in these sectors [1][3] - Achieving relative returns under new regulations requires attention to the stability of style and industry exposure, enhancing style and industry allocations to improve portfolio performance while controlling volatility. Industry-led investments have high potential for excess returns, but the risk-reward ratio is declining, making it a suboptimal strategy [1][3][4] - For absolute returns, multi-asset allocation can simplify investment processes. Relative returns require clarity on the stability of various benchmarks' style and industry exposures, along with methods to enhance these while controlling volatility [4] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Public funds should allocate at least half of their positions to benchmark indices and use the other half to seek excess returns, regardless of whether through style or industry allocation. Financial sectors, particularly non-bank and bank stocks, are notably underweighted in public funds compared to their index allocations [10][14] - The risk control benchmark can be compared to index-enhanced products, with the median risk of these products showing a relative drawdown of about 10%. If actively managed equity products can achieve a 10% relative drawdown with higher annualized excess returns, they will outperform traditional ETFs and broad index products [5][6] - The probability of selecting industries that yield over 1% excess returns annually is low, typically around 10%, with a special case in 2021 where 30% of industries met this standard. Achieving 10% excess returns is considered a high target for public funds [9][14] - The distinction between using style versus industry for excess returns is significant; style offers stability but lower ceilings, while industry can achieve higher ceilings but with less stability in win rates [11][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025Q1, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 3.13%, the Wind Convertible Bond Underlying Stock Equal - Weighted Index rose 7.81%, and the average increase in the reinstated unit net value of 39 convertible bond funds was 3.81%, with a median of 3.59%. The overall net subscription was 3.858 billion yuan, and the net subscription rate of 39 convertible bond funds was 51.28%, a 20.51 - percentage - point increase compared to 24Q4. [8][12] - In 2025Q1, the market value of convertible bonds held by public funds was 282.274 billion yuan, a 1.85% decrease from the previous quarter, and the convertible bond position slightly decreased by 0.01 percentage points to 0.88% (the ratio of the market value of convertible bonds held to the net asset value of the fund). The market value of convertible bonds held by 39 convertible bond funds increased, the overall position rose, and the leverage ratio continued to decline quarter - on - quarter. [8][12] - In terms of industry allocation, banks remain an important underlying position for convertible bonds. Both public funds and convertible bond funds increased their positions in convertible bonds of the power equipment industry. In addition, public funds mainly increased their positions in convertible bonds of industries such as basic chemicals and electronics, while convertible bond funds mainly increased their positions in convertible bonds of industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and non - ferrous metals. [8][12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Public Funds Slightly Reduced Convertible Bond Positions and Increased Positions in Basic Chemicals and Power Equipment Convertible Bonds (1) The Market Value of Convertible Bonds Held by Public Funds Decreased Quarter - on - Quarter, and the Position Slightly Declined - In 2025Q1, the market value of convertible bonds held by public funds was 282.274 billion yuan, a 1.85% decrease from the previous quarter but a 3.98% increase year - on - year. The ratio of the market value of convertible bonds held by public funds to the market value of bond investments was 1.43%, a 0.09 - percentage - point decrease from 24Q4; the ratio to the net value was 0.88%, a slight 0.01 - percentage - point decrease from 24Q4. [12] - The market value of convertible bonds held by different types of funds changed differently quarter - on - quarter, with passive index funds performing strongly. Among them, the market value of convertible bonds held by stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds in 25Q1 increased by 87.06%, decreased by 19.13%, and increased by 0.63% respectively. [15] - In terms of the absolute amount of change, the hybrid funds had the largest decrease in market value, with a 7.396 - billion - yuan decrease in 25Q1. The stock - type funds increased by 586 million yuan, mainly contributed by passive index funds. The bond - type funds increased by 1.572 billion yuan in total, but there was significant internal differentiation. [2] (2) The Proportion of Public Fund Holdings Increased, and Brokerage Asset Management and Proprietary Trading Increased Positions - As of the end of 2025Q1, the total face value of convertible bonds held by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges was 696.248 billion yuan, a 29.725 - billion - yuan decrease from the end of 24Q4, a 4.09% quarter - on - quarter decrease. Public funds, insurance institutions, enterprise annuities, and general institutions all significantly reduced their positions. Brokerage proprietary trading and asset management increased their positions. [29] - As of the end of 25Q1, public funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges held a total face value of convertible bonds of 232.441 billion yuan, a 3.50% decrease from the end of 24Q4, but the proportion increased by 0.21 percentage points to 33.38%. [34] (3) Public Funds Adjusted Their Positioning Styles and Increased Positions in Basic Chemicals and Power Equipment Convertible Bonds - In terms of style, the market value of positions in equity - biased and debt - biased convertible bonds decreased, with a decrease of 6.121 billion and 8.660 billion yuan respectively compared to 24Q4, a decline of 18.05% and 7.49%. The market value of balanced convertible bonds increased by 6.933 billion yuan, an increase of 5.31%. [3][38] - In terms of industry layout, in 25Q1, banks were still the primary layout sector. In addition, the power equipment, basic chemicals, and electronics industries had a relatively high total market value of fund positions. [39] - In terms of the quarter - on - quarter change in market value, nearly half of the industries had positive changes. Industries such as social services, national defense and military industry, and basic chemicals had the highest increases. [39] (4) Industrial Bank Convertible Bonds Rose to the Top of the Heavily - Held Bonds, and the Market Value Increment Led - Industrial Bank Convertible Bonds were the most heavily - held bonds by public funds. Industrial Bank and Shanghai United Bank Convertible Bonds had the highest increments. Among the top ten convertible bonds in terms of total market value of fund positions, six were bank convertible bonds. [45] - Excluding bank convertible bonds, among the top ten convertible bonds in terms of the number of fund holdings, six were from the power equipment industry. [45] II. Convertible Bond Funds Outperformed the Index, with an Increase in Convertible Bond Positions and a Decrease in the Leverage Ratio (1) The Reinstated Unit Net Value Rose, and the Overall Performance Showed Net Subscription - As of 2025Q1, there were 39 convertible bond funds in the market that announced relevant data. In 25Q1, the performance of convertible bond funds outperformed the convertible bond index, with an overall net subscription and an increase in scale. [53] - The scale of convertible bond funds in 25Q1 was 54.920 billion yuan, a 3.858 - billion - yuan increase from 24Q4, a 7.56% quarter - on - quarter increase. The overall net subscription was 3.858 billion yuan, and 20 out of 39 convertible bond funds had net subscriptions, with a net subscription rate of 51.28%. [53] (2) The Convertible Bond Position Increased Quarter - on - Quarter, and the Leverage Ratio Decreased Quarter - on - Quarter - The overall position of 39 convertible bond funds increased, and the leverage ratio decreased quarter - on - quarter. In the first quarter of 2025, the ratio of the market value of convertible bonds to the net value of convertible bond funds was 84.70%, a 0.12 - percentage - point increase from the previous quarter, continuing the upward trend in 24Q4. [66] - The average leverage ratio of 39 convertible bond funds in the first quarter of 2025 was 114.81%, a 2.86 - percentage - point decrease from the previous quarter, mainly affected by the relatively high cost of funds in the first quarter. [66] (3) Convertible Bond Funds Mainly Increased Positions in Power Equipment, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - From the perspective of the quarterly change in the number of times funds held convertible bonds, in 25Q1, the number of times most industries were held decreased. Only the basic chemicals, steel, social services, communications, and petroleum and petrochemical industries had an increase in the total number of times held quarter - on - quarter. [5] - From the perspective of the quarterly change in the proportion of the market value of fund positions, the proportions of power equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and non - ferrous metals increased by 2.09, 1.48, and 1.35 percentage points respectively. A total of 16 industries had an increase in the proportion of the market value of positions. [5]

编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.13） 宏观及策略研究 输入性因素拖累明显——2025 年 4 月物价数据点评 进出口增速均超预期——2025 年 4 月进出口数据点评 基金研究 国防军工领涨行业 ，公募高质量发展行动方案落地——公募基金周报 晨会纪要（2025/05/13） 输入性因素拖累明显——2025 年 4 月物价数据点评 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 1、CPI：食品和出行价格上行 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/05/13） 宏观及策略研究 2025 年 4 月 CPI 同比降幅持平，环比由降转涨。CPI 环比走高主要受食品价格和出行服务价格支撑，其中， 食品价格上行主要与牛肉进口量减少、部分地区 ...

Group 1 - Guotai Junan reported a significant increase in Q1 2025 performance, with operating revenue reaching 11.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 47.48%, and net profit attributable to shareholders soaring to 12.242 billion yuan, up 391.78% [1] - The growth in operating revenue was primarily driven by increased net investment income from financial instruments and higher net income from brokerage services [1] - The substantial rise in net profit was largely attributed to the negative goodwill generated from the acquisition of Haitong Securities, which contributed to increased non-operating income [1] Group 2 - The total scale of public funds in China remained stable at 32.22 trillion yuan as of the end of March, marking a steady performance over the past two months [2] - There was a notable increase in subscription enthusiasm for QDII and equity funds, with their shares growing by 3.57% and 1.29% respectively, indicating heightened investor confidence in overseas markets and the stock market [2] - The overall market sentiment appears to be improving, which may lead to increased capital inflow into related sectors and enhance market activity [2] Group 3 - Zhang Qiuyun has officially taken over as the chairman of Zhongyuan Securities, bringing extensive financial management experience that may influence the company's strategic direction [3] - The leadership change could have significant implications for the company's governance structure and business layout, warranting close attention from investors regarding future policy developments [3] Group 4 - Shichuang Securities plans to invest approximately 104 million yuan in purchasing an office property in Shanghai, reflecting a positive outlook on future business development [4] - Despite a year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, this acquisition may enhance the company's image and operational efficiency [4] - The move could attract attention to the brokerage sector, although ongoing performance and macroeconomic conditions should be monitored [4]

证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 28 年 月 日 固定收益点评 基金增持了哪些转债——25Q1 基金转债持仓分析 2025Q1 公募基金持有转债规模占转债总市值的比重环比下降 0.87pcts，仓位小幅上升了 0.01pcts。截止 2025Q1，转债市场存量余 额 6920.52 亿元，环比 24Q4 增加 0.24%；公募基金持有转债市值 2822.74 亿元，占转债总市值的 40.79%，较 24Q4 减少 0.87pcts；公募基金持有 转债仓位为 0.819%，较 24Q4 上升 0.01pcts。 2025Q1，可转债基金平均收益略跑赢中证转债指数。受权益市场行情影 响，25Q1 转债市场主要指数上涨。可转债基金 25Q1 的区间平均收益率 为 16.73%，收益率为正的可转债基金有 39 只，其中华宝可转债债券 25Q1 收益率表现最好为 46.51%；东方可转债债券的收益率同样表现优异为 37.26%。另外仅有工银可转债债券的收益率为-0.24%。可转债基金中跑 赢中证转债指数的有 21 只，胜率 52.50%；跑赢转债债基指数的为 18 只， 胜率为 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company, indicating a projected increase in stock price relative to the market index [4][30]. Core Insights - The company achieved operating revenue of 19.19 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.35 billion yuan, up 21.66% year-on-year [4][6]. - The report highlights a significant increase in investment income (including fair value changes) by 81.16% year-on-year, which has positively impacted overall performance despite pressures in other business segments [4][21]. - The company’s brokerage, investment banking, and asset management businesses faced challenges, with brokerage fees down 9.71% and investment banking fees down 22.65% year-on-year [4][11][13]. - The debt financing business showed robust growth, with a total underwriting scale of 520.44 billion yuan, up 35.61% year-on-year, while equity financing was heavily impacted, with a 89.71% drop in underwriting amounts [4][13]. - The report anticipates earnings per share (EPS) of 0.39 yuan and 0.44 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding book value per share (BVPS) of 9.33 yuan and 9.63 yuan [4][30]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 191.90 billion yuan and a net profit of 33.50 billion yuan, with a basic earnings per share of 0.37 yuan [4][6]. - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 4.14%, an increase of 0.69 percentage points year-on-year [4][6]. Business Segments - Investment income (including fair value changes) accounted for 28.1% of total revenue, reflecting a strategic shift towards investment activities [7]. - The brokerage business saw a decline in net income, while the asset management segment faced significant pressure, with fees down 33.91% year-on-year [4][15]. Market Position - The company’s two-way financing balance reached a historical high, with a year-on-year increase of 32.22%, indicating a strong market position [4][23]. - The report notes a significant reduction in stock pledge risks, with a 50.89% decrease in stock pledge repurchase balances [4][26]. Future Projections - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 202.04 billion yuan and 217.43 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [5][33]. - The report suggests that the company’s investment strategies and market positioning will support continued performance improvement in the coming years [4][30].

Macro and Strategy Research - The scale of corporate bond financing has decreased, with March social financing increasing by over 1 trillion yuan year-on-year for the fourth consecutive month, primarily supported by government bond financing and on-balance sheet credit financing [2] - Corporate short-term loans have significantly increased year-on-year, with a net increase of 460 billion yuan in March, while medium and long-term loans showed a slight decrease, indicating a preference for short-term loans due to high bond financing costs [2][3] - M1 year-on-year growth has rebounded, likely due to accelerated fiscal fund disbursement, enhancing the liquidity of private sector demand [3] - Overall, March financial data shows improvements in both total and structural aspects, with notable increases in social financing and M1 growth, although medium and long-term loans still require further stimulation [3] Fund Research - The market saw significant net inflows into broad-based indices led by the CSI 300, with a net inflow of over 98 billion yuan, while the CSI A500 index experienced a net outflow of approximately 3.97 billion yuan [5][7] - The average net value of bond funds increased by 0.16%, while FOF and equity funds performed poorly, with the average net value of quantitative funds dropping by 3.99% [6][7] - The active equity fund position increased to 80.96%, up by 2.8 percentage points from the previous period, indicating a rising confidence in equity markets [6]

Group 1 - The overall structure of public fund holders has stabilized over the past year, with institutional investors favoring large-cap style funds, and the holdings in the CSI 300 ETF have exceeded 800 billion yuan [1][25]. - The pure bond funds are actively seizing the bond bull market, with the median duration increasing to 2.47 years, up by 0.26 years from the mid-2024 report [19]. - The fee reform has shown initial results, with total expenses for public funds in 2024 amounting to 236.036 billion yuan, resulting in a total fee rate of 0.73%, significantly lower than the same period last year [1][35]. Group 2 - In the 2024 report, the top three sectors for public fund holdings are industrial, consumer staples, and consumer discretionary, with CATL (宁德时代) having the highest total market value of 178.575 billion yuan, held by 2,861 funds [2][3]. - The top 20 stocks held by public funds include major companies such as Kweichow Moutai and Midea Group, with significant holdings across various sectors [3][4]. Group 3 - Hong Kong stocks remain an important allocation direction for public funds, with the top four heavy stocks each exceeding 20 billion yuan in market value [5][6]. - The highest proportion of public fund holdings relative to circulating market value is for Zhixiang Jintai-U, at 54.35% [8]. Group 4 - Public funds have significantly increased their holdings in stocks that have generally risen in value, with the top stock, Dekeli, seeing a 123.73% increase in its holding proportion [10]. - Conversely, stocks that public funds have significantly reduced their holdings in have generally declined in value, with the top stock, Shennong Group, experiencing a -9.86% drop [13]. Group 5 - The top FOF funds are primarily tool-oriented, with the highest holding value in the Huaxia Hang Seng ETF at 777 million yuan [16]. - The top three fund companies receiving FOF inflows are E Fund, Fortune, and GF Fund, with held values of 5.3 billion yuan, 4.818 billion yuan, and 3.617 billion yuan, respectively [20]. Group 6 - Institutional investors are the main holders of bond funds, with an 84.32% share, while individual investors dominate FOF, mixed, and money market funds with shares of 90.61%, 80.73%, and 72.54%, respectively [24]. - The proportion of institutional holdings in public funds has increased to 48.49%, up by 2.09 percentage points from the previous year [23]. Group 7 - The management fee income for most public fund companies has decreased year-on-year, with E Fund leading at 8.21 billion yuan, down 11.47% [37]. - The total transaction commission paid by public funds to brokers in 2024 was 10.986 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.849 billion yuan compared to the previous year [50].

证券研究报告——市场日报 三大指数大幅上涨 申万一级行业集体收红 证券研究报告——市场日报 2025.02.26 （预计发布时间：2025.02.27） 大同证券研究中心 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号：S0770523090001 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址: http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 行情回顾 周三（2 月 26 日），三大指数早盘高开， 午前呈现震荡走势，午后行情向好，三大指数 震荡上行，最终红盘收涨。截至收盘，上证指 数（+1.02%）收报 3380.21 点，深证成指 （+0.93%） 收报 10955.65 点，创业 板指 （+1.23%）收报 2268.22 点。两市量能有所回 升，整体超 1.9 万亿（数据来源：Wind）。申 万Ⅰ级行业集体上涨，钢铁、房地产、非银金 融领涨。 风险提示 热门板块突发利空引发市场扰动 当日要闻 海通证券即将终止上市 "国君+海通"并购完成进入倒计时。海通证券公告称，2 月 25 日，海通证券收到上交所出具的自律监管决定书《关于海通证券股份有限公司股 ...