联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] 中美关税下调，周期哪些行业受益？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 5 月 12 日，中美发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进 展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计 91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了 91%的反制关 税；美方在初始的 90 天内暂停实施 24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应在初始的 90 天内暂停实 施 24%的反制关税，对中美贸易往来的大宗产品带来显著利好，具体影响几何？ 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 范超 韩轶超 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490512020001 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BQK468 马太 魏凯 张韦华 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490520080009 SAC：S0490517080003 SFC：BUT911 SFC：BUT964 SFC：BQT627 张弛 SA ...

Financial Market Response - The financial markets reacted positively to the announcement of tariff reductions, with spot gold prices dropping to $3,220 per ounce, marking a 3.21% decline, reflecting optimism about the economic outlook [3] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index surged nearly 2.98%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.82% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.72%, indicating a favorable response to the easing of US-China trade tensions [3] - US stock index futures also saw significant gains, with the S&P 500 rising by 2.8% and the Nasdaq increasing by 3.6%, showcasing a notable boost in investor confidence [3] - The Chinese yuan reached a six-month high, signaling increased market confidence in the Chinese economy [3] - European shipping companies, such as Maersk, saw stock prices rise by nearly 12%, reflecting the positive impact of improved global trade conditions [3] Economic Perspectives - Economists view the tariff adjustments as a significant positive development, with expectations that the new rates will alleviate concerns over short-term global supply chain disruptions [4] - The chief economist at ING estimated that reducing tariffs to 30% could restore normal trade activities between the US and China, leading to an upward revision of China's annual economic growth forecast to 4.7% [4] - The temporary nature of the tariff reductions is acknowledged, with the need for further negotiations and potential agreements in the coming months [4] Exporter Insights - Exporters are encouraged by the joint statement, viewing the next 90 days as a critical period to capitalize on reduced cost pressures and increase business activity [5] - Companies are expected to expedite shipments and enhance their presence in the US market during this window of opportunity [5] - Some businesses are shifting from passive to proactive international trade strategies, focusing on building competitive advantages in anticipation of future changes in trade policies [6]

Group 1 - U.S. stock markets experienced a significant rally, with the Dow Jones rising over 1100 points, marking a new high since March. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also reached their highest closing levels since early March, driven by positive news regarding U.S.-China trade relations [2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index surged by 5.40%, indicating a strong performance among popular Chinese stocks. The market's reaction suggests that it may have already priced in the benefits of the U.S.-China joint statement [2] - The S&P 500 index has risen over 8% since mid-June, while the Nasdaq has increased by more than 12%, reflecting optimistic expectations regarding trade tensions [2] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10-year yield increasing by 9.05 basis points to 4.4729%. This rise is attributed to improved market sentiment regarding trade tensions following U.S.-China negotiations [3] - The dollar index (DXY) increased by 1.27% to 101.61, indicating a stronger dollar amid rising Treasury yields and a shift away from safe-haven assets like the euro and yen [3] Group 3 - Major U.S. tech stocks saw substantial gains, with Amazon up over 8%, Tesla up over 6.7%, and Meta up over 7.9%. Analysts suggest that the reduction in tariffs could be a "best-case scenario" for U.S. tech stocks, potentially leading to new highs in the market [5] - The market sentiment is bolstered by expectations of significant tariff reductions in the coming months, which could enhance profit margins for companies reliant on Chinese goods [5] Group 4 - The gold market experienced a sharp decline, with spot gold prices falling below $3200 per ounce. Analysts attribute this drop to reduced demand for safe-haven assets as U.S.-China tensions ease [7] - The decline in gold prices is also linked to expectations of further interest rate cuts by central banks, which may increase gold exposure in the future [7] Group 5 - Consumer sectors, including footwear, apparel, and department stores, saw significant gains in the U.S. stock market, driven by improved sentiment from U.S.-China trade discussions. Retailers are expected to benefit from lower import costs, enhancing their profit margins [8] - The easing of tariffs is anticipated to alleviate inventory pressures for smaller retailers, leading to a more optimistic outlook for the industry [8] Group 6 - President Trump signed an executive order aimed at reducing drug prices, requiring pharmaceutical companies to align their prices with those in other countries. This order poses challenges for implementation and sets ambitious price reduction targets [9] - Apple is considering raising the prices of its upcoming iPhone models, which could be influenced by the additional costs incurred from tariffs, estimated at around $900 million for the current quarter [10]

【导读】史诗级利好，中美均将对等关税下调115% 兄弟姐妹们啊，史诗级利好，市场直线拉升。 联合声明远超预期 5月12日盘后，史诗级利好来了！中美发布联合声明，中美同意暂时降低部分关税90天！ 其中双方承诺将于2025年5月14日前采取以下举措： 美国将（一）修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政令中规定的对中国商品（包括香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政区商品）加征的从价关税， 其中，24%的关税在初始的90天内暂停实施，同时保留按该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税；（二）取消根据2025年4月8日 第14259号行政令和2025年4月9日第14266号行政令对这些商品的加征关税。 中国将（一）相应修改税委会公告2025年第4号规定的对美国商品加征的从价关税，其中，24%的关税在初始的90天内暂停实施，同时保 留对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税，并取消根据税委会公告2025年第5号和第6号对这些商品的加征关税；（二）采取必要措施，暂停或取 消自2025年4月2日起针对美国的非关税反制措施。 采取上述举措后，双方将建立机制，继续就经贸关系进行协商。中方代表是国务院副总理何立峰，美方代表是财政部长斯科特·贝 ...

特朗普政府宣布已与中国政府达成一项为期90天的关税下调协议。美国财政部长贝森特5月12日在瑞士 举行的记者会上表示："双方已同意将关税下调115%"…… 特朗普政府5月12日宣布，已与中国政府就为期90天的关税下调达成一致。美国财政部长贝森特在瑞士 举行的记者会上表示："双方同意将关税下调115%"。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）八十岛绫平 华盛顿 报道 特朗普总统在中美磋商前曾表示，"80%可能是个不错的选择"，此次达成的协议显示出比更大的让步。 贝森特在记者会上透露，中美双方就构建一个"防止不幸的关税升级再次发生的良好机制"达成一致。 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 特朗普政府于4月2日公布了详细的对等关税措施，中国当时将基础税率10%与附加税率24%合并为 34%。其后，由于中国采取了报复措施，美国最终将关税提高至125%。 根据中美两国政府的联合声明，美方将撤销因中方报复措施而提高的关税部分。对等关税将恢复至最初 的34%，并暂停征收其中的24%加征部分，为期90天。 中方也采取相同措施，将目前对美的125%追加关税降至10%90天。此外，中国也暂时停止 ...

当天，特朗普还表示，如果贸易协议与减税相结合能够取得成果，"你最好现在就去买股票"。 中概股走强。 当地时间5月9日，美股三大指数集体高开，截至发稿，道指涨0.08%，标普500指数涨0.26%，纳指涨0.50%。 | 道琼斯指数 | 41401.52 | +0.08% | | --- | --- | --- | | .DJI | | | | 标普500指数 | | | | | 5678.51 | +0.26% | | SPX | | | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 18018.64 | +0.50% | | .IXIC | | | | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数 | | | | | 7166.13 | +0.93% | | .HXC | | | 大型科技股多数上涨，截至发稿，特斯拉涨超5%，脸书母公司Meta、苹果、微软、英伟达、亚马逊小幅上涨；谷歌A小幅下跌。 热门中概股普涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数一度涨超1%。个股方面，微博涨近3%，腾讯音乐涨超2%，富途控股、蔚来、新东方、阿里巴巴、拼多多等涨超 1%，百度、京东等小幅上涨；理想汽车跌超1%。 据新华社消息，美国总统特朗普8日在白宫宣布，美国与英国达成一项新的贸 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trade agreement between the UK and India, reached after three years of negotiations, is expected to significantly boost bilateral trade, with an estimated annual increase of £25.5 billion (approximately ¥246.3 billion) by 2040, benefiting both economies [1][2]. Group 1: Negotiation Background - The trade negotiations began in January 2022 under then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson, faced interruptions due to political changes, and were revitalized in February 2024 by the Labour government, emphasizing the importance of the agreement [2][6]. - The agreement is seen as the most significant trade deal for the UK post-Brexit, aimed at reducing trade barriers and enhancing economic ties [2][3]. Group 2: Key Provisions of the Agreement - The agreement will lower tariffs on 90% of Indian exports to the UK, with 85% of goods achieving zero tariffs within ten years. Tariffs on various UK imports, including cosmetics and machinery, will also be reduced [2][3]. - Specific tariff reductions include a decrease in the whisky and gin tariff from 150% to 75%, with further reductions planned, marking a transformative moment for the Scotch whisky industry [5]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The agreement is expected to provide UK consumers with lower prices and more choices in clothing, footwear, and frozen shrimp once implemented [3]. - India's growing economy, projected to become the third-largest globally, presents significant trade opportunities for the UK, which is seeking to diversify its trade relationships beyond the US and EU [6].

Core Points - The UK and India have reached a significant bilateral trade agreement after three years of negotiations, which is considered the most important trade deal for the UK post-Brexit [1][2][4] - The agreement is expected to increase the annual bilateral trade volume by £25.5 billion (approximately 246.3 billion RMB) by 2040 [2] - Both countries are eager for this agreement to support their economies, with the UK aiming to reduce trade barriers and India seeking to boost its export trade [2][4] Negotiation Background - Trade negotiations began in January 2022 under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson and continued through various administrations, with a renewed focus under the Labour government [4] - The UK government has emphasized that reaching this trade agreement is a top priority, especially after the elections [4] - The agreement is seen as a major economic milestone for both nations, with UK Prime Minister Starmer and Indian Prime Minister Modi highlighting its ambitious and mutually beneficial nature [4][6] Key Provisions - Under the agreement, 90% of tariffs on Indian exports to the UK will be reduced, with 85% of goods achieving zero tariffs within ten years [4] - Tariffs on various UK exports to India, including high-end cars and whisky, will also see significant reductions, with whisky tariffs dropping from 150% to 75% [6] - The agreement is expected to provide UK consumers with lower prices and more choices in various goods, including clothing and seafood [5] Economic Context - India is currently the world's fifth-largest economy and is projected to become the third-largest in the coming years, making it an attractive partner for the UK [7] - The agreement is seen as a strategic move for both countries to diversify their trade relationships amid global economic uncertainties [7] - The negotiations faced challenges, including India's request for easier immigration access for its citizens to the UK, which was not included in the final agreement [6]

编者按： 离岸市场跑赢在岸市场，互联网 / 科技、消费、医疗保健板块最具优势 如果关税下调，这对中国股市将是重大利好。它可以进一步巩固市场的乐观情绪，缓解投资者对中美紧 张关系进一步升级(可能扩大到非关税措施，如美国存托凭证退市、投资限制和技术出口禁令)的担忧， 改善中国股票的股权风险溢价和估值。 在这种情况下，预计离岸市场将跑赢在岸 A 股市场，大盘互联网 / 科技公司(中国的代表性企业、技术 结构性突破)、消费(通缩风险缓解)和医疗保健(中美紧张关系缓和)板块可能受益最大。 目前的投资策略 —— 耐心、灵活，为曲折发展做好准备 尽管言论令人期待，市场反应积极，但目前尚无证据证实双方正在进行有效的双边谈判对话。 4月23日，摩根士丹利发布研究报告指出，在关税大幅下调的情形下，预计大盘互联网 / 科技、消费和 医疗保健板块表现出色，离岸市场表现将优于在岸市场。然而，鉴于达成协议的难度较高且存在根本利 益冲突，近期建议保持耐心并采取平衡策略。 事件经过 美国总统特朗普隔夜发表声明，称将大幅降低对中国的关税，美国财政部长也表示预计中美关税紧张局 势在未来会有所缓和，市场情绪因此显著改善。隔夜，纳斯达克金龙指数上涨 ...