Core Points - The UK and India have reached a significant bilateral trade agreement after three years of negotiations, which is considered the most important trade deal for the UK post-Brexit [1][2][4] - The agreement is expected to increase the annual bilateral trade volume by £25.5 billion (approximately 246.3 billion RMB) by 2040 [2] - Both countries are eager for this agreement to support their economies, with the UK aiming to reduce trade barriers and India seeking to boost its export trade [2][4] Negotiation Background - Trade negotiations began in January 2022 under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson and continued through various administrations, with a renewed focus under the Labour government [4] - The UK government has emphasized that reaching this trade agreement is a top priority, especially after the elections [4] - The agreement is seen as a major economic milestone for both nations, with UK Prime Minister Starmer and Indian Prime Minister Modi highlighting its ambitious and mutually beneficial nature [4][6] Key Provisions - Under the agreement, 90% of tariffs on Indian exports to the UK will be reduced, with 85% of goods achieving zero tariffs within ten years [4] - Tariffs on various UK exports to India, including high-end cars and whisky, will also see significant reductions, with whisky tariffs dropping from 150% to 75% [6] - The agreement is expected to provide UK consumers with lower prices and more choices in various goods, including clothing and seafood [5] Economic Context - India is currently the world's fifth-largest economy and is projected to become the third-largest in the coming years, making it an attractive partner for the UK [7] - The agreement is seen as a strategic move for both countries to diversify their trade relationships amid global economic uncertainties [7] - The negotiations faced challenges, including India's request for easier immigration access for its citizens to the UK, which was not included in the final agreement [6]

编者按： 离岸市场跑赢在岸市场，互联网 / 科技、消费、医疗保健板块最具优势 如果关税下调，这对中国股市将是重大利好。它可以进一步巩固市场的乐观情绪，缓解投资者对中美紧 张关系进一步升级(可能扩大到非关税措施，如美国存托凭证退市、投资限制和技术出口禁令)的担忧， 改善中国股票的股权风险溢价和估值。 在这种情况下，预计离岸市场将跑赢在岸 A 股市场，大盘互联网 / 科技公司(中国的代表性企业、技术 结构性突破)、消费(通缩风险缓解)和医疗保健(中美紧张关系缓和)板块可能受益最大。 目前的投资策略 —— 耐心、灵活，为曲折发展做好准备 尽管言论令人期待，市场反应积极，但目前尚无证据证实双方正在进行有效的双边谈判对话。 4月23日，摩根士丹利发布研究报告指出，在关税大幅下调的情形下，预计大盘互联网 / 科技、消费和 医疗保健板块表现出色，离岸市场表现将优于在岸市场。然而，鉴于达成协议的难度较高且存在根本利 益冲突，近期建议保持耐心并采取平衡策略。 事件经过 美国总统特朗普隔夜发表声明，称将大幅降低对中国的关税，美国财政部长也表示预计中美关税紧张局 势在未来会有所缓和，市场情绪因此显著改善。隔夜，纳斯达克金龙指数上涨 ...