Summary of the Conference Call on Aviation Power Company and Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on **Aviation Power**, a company involved in the military aviation sector, particularly in engine manufacturing and maintenance. The discussion highlights the **military trade** industry and its growth potential, especially in the context of military aircraft deliveries and engine aftermarket services. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Position and Valuation**: Aviation Power holds a position equivalent to aircraft manufacturers in military trade, possessing pricing power and negotiation capabilities. The company is currently undervalued and is considered a potential investment opportunity [2][3]. 2. **Growth in Military Aircraft Deliveries**: The increase in military aircraft deliveries is expected to drive demand for engine replacements and maintenance. This trend is anticipated to lead to a concentrated release of maintenance and refurbishment needs [2][6]. 3. **Aftermarket Business Potential**: The aftermarket for aviation engines is characterized by high-value consumables with short maintenance intervals. The total market size for the domestic aviation engine aftermarket is projected to reach between **400 billion to 600 billion** by the end of 2024 [2][8][10]. 4. **Positive Impact on Aircraft Manufacturers**: The engine maintenance business significantly benefits aircraft manufacturers, as they hold pricing power in the maintenance segment. The profit margins from maintenance services are higher than those from new aircraft sales, which is expected to enhance the profitability of engine manufacturers [2][11]. 5. **New Aircraft Models**: The new **J-35 series** of fighter jets from AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, including variants designed for export, is expected to provide strong growth momentum. The certainty of production ramp-up for these models is high, with significant export potential [2][5][15]. 6. **Investment Thesis for Aviation Power**: The investment rationale for Aviation Power includes its independent status in military trade, increasing share of aftermarket business, and potential breakthroughs in domestic engine production capabilities [3][7]. 7. **Future Market Dynamics**: The next 20 years are expected to see a significant increase in aviation engine-related transactions and revenue, driven by the high-value consumable nature of engines and the growing demand for maintenance services [8][9]. 8. **Challenges and Opportunities for Domestic Engine Companies**: Domestic engine manufacturer **Daheng Power** faces challenges such as rising R&D and financial costs, but its gross margin remains stable. If margins improve, it could lead to significant stock price catalysts [12]. 9. **Importance of Control Systems**: Control systems are critical components in aviation engines, with domestic systems showing strong pricing power. The maintenance share of control systems is projected to grow from **8% in 2021 to 16% in 2024**, indicating rapid growth in this segment [13]. 10. **Beneficial Segments in the Aviation Engine Market**: Other segments benefiting from the aviation engine market include blades, coatings, and fasteners, with specific companies identified for their strong market positions in these areas [14]. Additional Insights - The J-35 fighter jet is positioned to enhance China's military trade competitiveness, breaking the trend of export models being less advanced than domestic ones. This positions AVIC Shenyang for significant growth in orders and revenue [15][20]. - The disparity in orders between the U.S. F-22 and F-35 is attributed to factors such as development costs, pricing strategies, and production capabilities, which may inform future strategies for Chinese military aircraft [17][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry in China [5] Core Viewpoints - The military trade market in China is continuously expanding, with significant developments such as Indonesia's procurement of the J-10 fighter jet, indicating a rapid growth in the military trade market scale [11] - The "Qianfan Constellation" satellite network has resumed operations after a 7-month hiatus, with the recent launch of 18 satellites, suggesting an acceleration in low-orbit satellite deployment [12] - The current market conditions show stabilization in military sector stock prices, with a focus on domestic demand and the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" which is expected to clarify new equipment construction plans [16][17] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report highlights several investment targets within the military electronics sector, including: - Aerospace Electric (002025, Buy) - Zhonghang Optics (002179, Buy) - Aerospace Electronics (600879, Not Rated) - In the new quality and domain sector, notable mentions include: - Haige Communication (002465, Buy) - New Light Optoelectronics (688011, Increase Holding) - For the engine chain, key targets include: - West Superconducting (688122, Buy) - Huqin Technology (688281, Increase Holding) - In military trade and main equipment, companies like AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (600760, Not Rated) are highlighted [17]

Core Insights - The defense and military industry index experienced a decline of -4.70% over the past week, ranking 23rd out of 31 in the Shenwan primary industry [7][41] - The current PE-TTM for the defense and military industry is 83.33, which is at the 76.67 percentile compared to the past decade, indicating a relatively high valuation level [12][15] - The report highlights significant individual stock performances, with North China Long Dragon leading with an increase of 8.71% over the past week, while Guorui Technology saw a decline of -14.00% [17][41] Industry and Stock Market Review - The defense and military industry index has shown a decline of -1.92% over the past month, ranking 11th out of 31 [9][41] - Over the past year, the industry index has increased by 16.91%, ranking 19th out of 31 [3][41] - The trading volume for the defense and military industry reached 310.8 billion yuan this week, a year-on-year decrease of -8.63% but a week-on-week increase of +128.08% [31][34] Important Company Announcements - The report includes various significant announcements from companies in the defense sector, such as strategic cooperation agreements and stock repurchase plans [38] Industry News - Indonesia confirmed its plan to purchase Chinese-made J-10 fighter jets, with a defense budget of at least 9 billion USD approved [40][41] - Successful launches of low-orbit satellite internet groups and the sixth batch of the Qianfan constellation were reported, indicating advancements in commercial aerospace [40][42] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key investment themes such as military trade, commercial aerospace, unmanned equipment, military AI, and low-altitude economy [43]

Group 1 - The aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) has shown a significant rebound, with a premium frequently observed and a turnover rate of 8.62%, resulting in a transaction volume of 38.8378 million yuan [1] - As of October 16, the Tianhong aerospace ETF has experienced a scale growth of 12.1386 million yuan over the past month, indicating substantial growth [1] - The ETF tracks the Guozheng Aerospace Index, which covers the aerospace industry chain, with a combined weight of over 73% in aviation and aerospace equipment, making it the highest "aerospace content" military index in the market [1] Group 2 - On October 15, Indonesia's Defense Minister confirmed the procurement of Chinese-made J-10 fighter jets, marking the first clear indication of such a purchase from Indonesia [2] - Experts suggest that if Indonesia finalizes the procurement of J-10 fighter jets, it would benefit both China by expanding the international market for the J-10 and Indonesia by enhancing its defense capabilities [2] - China Galaxy Securities highlights the potential for military trade and new quality fields, suggesting that the military sector may continue to outperform the market amid trade tensions, with positive earnings expectations for upstream components in Q3 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The three major indices opened lower on October 17, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.11%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.2%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.36% [1] Sector Performance - The sectors that saw the highest gains included gold concepts, innovative pharmaceuticals, and construction [1] - Conversely, sectors that experienced the largest declines included cultivated diamond concepts, Hainan free trade concepts, military trade concepts, warehousing and logistics, building materials, and semiconductors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The three major indices have turned negative, with the ChiNext index dropping by 0.84%, indicating a downward trend in the market [1] Industry Summary - The military trade and photolithography machine sectors are among the hardest hit, showing significant declines [1]

Group 1 - The Aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) closed up 1.25% on October 13, 2025, with a turnover of 14.74% and a transaction volume of 71.1352 million yuan, indicating active market trading [2] - The ETF saw a significant increase in shares, with a growth of 21 million shares in the past month, ranking first among comparable funds [2] - The net inflow of funds into the Aerospace ETF Tianhong was 2.4119 million yuan, with a total of 22.3651 million yuan raised over the last 15 trading days [2] Group 2 - The Aerospace ETF Tianhong tracks the National Aerospace Index, with a strong military attribute, where the first-tier military industry accounts for 97.86%, making it the highest military content index in the market [2] - The weight of aerospace equipment in the ETF is as high as 66.8%, significantly exceeding that of the CSI Military and CSI Defense indices [2] - Bangladesh plans to invest 2.2 billion USD to procure 20 Chinese J-10CE multi-role fighter jets by 2027, which will enhance its air combat capabilities [2] Group 3 - According to Dongfang Securities, Bangladesh's plan to purchase J-10CE fighter jets exemplifies the acceleration of China's high-end equipment exports and reflects an upgrade in military trade from "single product cost-effectiveness" to "systematic solution capabilities" [3] - In the context of increasing global geopolitical conflicts and modernization of national defense, China's equipment has established a comprehensive international competitive advantage due to improved technical performance, cost-effectiveness, and enhanced system compatibility [3] - The future outlook suggests that as high-end equipment exports accelerate, China's influence in the international market is expected to expand, with military trade likely to see both volume and price increases [3]

Macroeconomic Dynamics - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced by 70 yuan and 75 yuan per ton respectively starting from October 13, 2023, due to the decline in international oil prices, resulting in a decrease of 0.06 yuan per liter for 92 and 95 gasoline and 0 diesel [2] - In the first three quarters, China's exports of high-tech products reached 3.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.9%, contributing over 30% to the overall export growth [5] International Relations - The Chinese Foreign Ministry criticized the U.S. for threatening to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods in retaliation for China's rare earth export controls, emphasizing that this approach is not the correct way to engage with China [3] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry clarified that recent export control measures on rare earths are unrelated to Pakistan's cooperation with the U.S. and are part of China's legal framework to enhance its export control system [4] Financial Institutions - UBS indicated that if the MSCI China Index drops to 74, it will find strong support, with investors likely to buy on dips, as the index has risen 36% since April [7] - New China Life Insurance expects a net profit increase of 45% to 65% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by reforms and improved asset allocation [9] - Everbright Bank plans to grant a comprehensive credit limit of 29 billion yuan to CITIC Financial Asset Management, constituting a related party transaction [10] - Bank of America raised its gold price forecast for next year to $5,000 per ounce [11] Market Data - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.19%, with sectors like rare earth permanent magnets and gold showing strength, while over 3,600 stocks declined [12] - The financing balance in the two markets decreased by 34.95 billion yuan as of October 10, 2023 [13] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index dropped by 1.52%, with significant movements in the gold and semiconductor sectors [14] Company Dynamics - Microsoft will stop providing security updates and technical support for Windows 10 starting October 14, 2023, urging users to upgrade to Windows 11 [16] - Boehringer Ingelheim announced the launch of local production for its diabetes medication in China, enhancing supply stability in the market [17] - Meituan introduced a "full refund for side effects" feature for certain medications, allowing users to return products if they experience adverse effects within 21 days [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the defense and military industry in China [6] Core Views - China's military trade market is expected to achieve new breakthroughs, with the successful establishment of a reusable rocket factory accelerating the low-orbit satellite network [2][11] - The procurement of 20 J-10CE fighter jets by Bangladesh for $2.2 billion signifies the growing recognition of Chinese military products and the potential for market expansion [10][15] - The completion of the first reusable rocket factory in Wenchang, Hainan, marks a significant advancement in commercial aerospace infrastructure, paving the way for scalable and reusable rocket development [10][17] Summary by Sections Military Trade Developments - Bangladesh plans to invest $2.2 billion to purchase 20 J-10CE fighter jets, with the total procurement cost including training and logistics expected to reach $2.2 billion [10][15] - The international competitiveness of Chinese military equipment is increasing due to enhanced technology performance and cost-effectiveness, transitioning from a focus on individual product advantages to comprehensive solution capabilities [16] Commercial Aerospace Advancements - The first reusable rocket assembly and testing factory in Wenchang, Hainan, has been completed, which will significantly enhance the production capacity and testing capabilities for reusable rockets [10][17] - The factory is expected to lower launch costs and accelerate the progress of commercial low-orbit satellite networks [17] Current Market Outlook - The military industry has stabilized recently, with a focus on domestic demand and military trade developments as key growth drivers [20] - The report highlights the importance of upstream components and key materials in supporting the lifecycle of various military equipment, indicating potential benefits from demand amplification effects [20] - The report suggests continued optimism for the military sector, with specific investment recommendations for various companies within the industry [10][20]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a style switch, with significant declines in technology sectors like semiconductors and storage chips, while military, public utilities, and traditional consumer sectors are showing strong gains, particularly the military sector which rose nearly 5% [2][4][10]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Major A-share indices have weakened, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.94%, the Shenzhen Component down 2.7%, and the ChiNext Index down 4.55%, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly six months [2]. - The military sector has emerged as a strong performer, contributing to most of the limit-up stocks on the day [2]. Sector Analysis - The military sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Jieqiang Equipment and Beifang Changlong rising over 10% [12][13]. - Other sectors that performed well include cement, gas, and consumer goods, with notable increases in their respective indices [3]. Technology Sector Decline - The technology sector faced a broad sell-off, with major stocks like SMIC and Cambrian Technology experiencing declines of 7.89% and 8.23%, respectively [4][7]. - The adjustment in financing rates for several A-share stocks in the semiconductor sector has been interpreted as a signal to reduce leverage in these high-flying stocks [6][10]. Gold and Precious Metals - The precious metals sector also faced declines, with West Gold down 9.09% and other gold-related stocks following suit [7][8]. - Factors contributing to the drop include profit-taking by investors and external geopolitical developments [9]. Military Industry Outlook - The military sector is expected to enter a new growth cycle, driven by increased orders and a favorable geopolitical environment, with projections indicating a potential 30% growth in military trade by 2025 [16][23]. - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to provide clearer development guidance for the military industry, enhancing overall market sentiment [24]. Investment Opportunities - The military sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with many companies trading at attractive valuations relative to expected demand recovery from 2025 to 2027 [25]. - Structural opportunities in military trade, new technologies, and asset restructuring are identified as core investment themes moving forward [24].