Core Viewpoint - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending July 19 was reported at 217,000, which is lower than the expected 226,000 and the previous value of 221,000 [1] Summary by Category - **Employment Data** - Initial jobless claims decreased to 217,000, indicating a stronger labor market than anticipated [1] - The figure is a decline from the previous week's claims of 221,000, suggesting a positive trend in employment stability [1] - The expectation for the week was set at 226,000, showing that the actual claims were significantly lower than forecasts [1]

Group 1 - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending July 19 are set to be released shortly [1] - Canada's retail sales month-over-month for May will also be announced in ten minutes [1]

Group 1 - Tesla is scheduled to release its earnings report after the US stock market closes on July 24, 2025 [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe will deliver a speech at 11:05 AM [1] - The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision at 8:15 PM [1] Group 2 - Various PMI data will be released, including Germany's manufacturing PMI at 3:30 PM and the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI at 4:00 PM [1][1] - The UK will also release its manufacturing and services PMI data at 4:30 PM [1] - The US will report initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 at 8:30 PM [1]

This Week's Key Focus - On July 21 at 09:15, the People's Bank of China is expected to announce that the 1-year LPR remains at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50% [2][4] - On July 24 at 20:15, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision, with an expected unchanged benchmark rate [2][15] - On July 25 at 20:30, the US Department of Commerce will release the preliminary value of June's durable goods orders [2] - On July 27 at 09:30, China's National Bureau of Statistics will announce June's industrial enterprise profits, with the previous value showing a 9.1% year-on-year decline and a 1.1% cumulative decline from January to May [2][19] - Other factors such as domestic macro - policy changes, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, and speeches by US President Trump and Fed officials may impact the futures market [2] This Week's Hotspot Preview July 21 - At 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the achievements of building a transportation powerhouse during the '14th Five - Year Plan' [3] July 22 - At 15:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the first - half 2025 foreign exchange revenue and expenditure data [5] - At 20:30, Fed Chair Powell will give a welcome speech at a regulatory meeting, a rare 'live speech during the quiet period' [8] July 23 - At 22:00, the EU Statistics Bureau will release the preliminary value of the eurozone's July consumer confidence index, expected to be - 14.5 [9] - At 22:00, the US National Association of Realtors will announce June's existing home sales, with an expected annualized total of 4 million households and an annualized monthly rate of - 0.7%. Lower values may suppress non - ferrous metal futures prices [10] - At 22:30, the EIA will announce the change in US crude oil inventories for the week ending July 18. A continued decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures [11] July 24 - At 9:30, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the mid - July market prices of important production materials [12] - At 16:00, S&P Global will release the preliminary value of the eurozone's July SPGI manufacturing PMI, expected to be 49.8. A slight increase may slightly boost non - ferrous metal futures prices [13] - At 20:15, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision, followed by a press conference by President Lagarde at 20:45 [15] - At 20:30, the US Department of Labor will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19, expected to be 215,000. A slight decrease may slightly boost non - gold and non - silver industrial product futures but suppress gold and silver futures [14] - At 21:45, S&P Global will release the preliminary value of the US July SPGI manufacturing PMI, expected to be 53.5. A slight increase may slightly boost non - ferrous metal futures prices [16] - At 22:00, the US Department of Commerce will announce June's new home sales, with an expected seasonally adjusted annualized total of 650,000 households and an annualized monthly rate of 4.3%. Higher values may boost non - ferrous metal futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [17] July 25 - At 20:30, the US Department of Commerce will announce the preliminary monthly rate of June's durable goods orders, expected to be - 11%. A significant decrease may suppress non - ferrous metal futures but boost gold and silver futures [18] July 27 - At 09:30, China's National Bureau of Statistics will announce June's industrial enterprise profits [19]

Core Viewpoint - The sentiment in the market shifted as U.S. Treasury yields turned from rising to falling after deeper analysis of newly released economic data, indicating a complex economic outlook despite initial positive indicators [1] Group 1: Economic Data Analysis - Initial jobless claims decreased, and retail sales exceeded expectations, initially leading to an increase in Treasury yields, suggesting strong economic resilience [1] - However, the decrease in jobless claims was influenced by a smaller-than-usual summer shutdown in auto factories, indicating potential underlying weaknesses [1] - Retail sales growth may not be as robust as it appears, with future trends showing risks of weakness according to economic analysts [1]

Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending July 12 is reported at 221,000, which is lower than the expected 235,000 [1] - The previous week's figure was revised from 227,000 to 228,000, indicating a slight increase in claims [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes reaffirm a cautious policy stance, with market expectations for a rate cut in July being low [1] - Key upcoming economic indicators include the U.S. June CPI and PPI data, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, and speeches from Fed officials [1] Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve noted that while inflation has eased in recent months, it remains above the long-term target of 2%, with short-term inflation expectations still high [1] - Economic growth is described as robust, with low unemployment rates and stable consumer and investment data, although risks from trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and tariff increases persist [1] Labor Market Data - For the week ending July 5, initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 227,000, slightly below the expected 235,000, with the previous value revised from 233,000 to 232,000 [1] International Economic Indicators - China's foreign exchange reserves increased to $3,317.4 billion, rising by $32.2 billion or 0.98% from the end of May [1] - China's June CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [1] Upcoming Events - On July 14, President Trump plans to make a "major statement" regarding Russia [1] - Key economic data releases include China's Q2 GDP year-on-year on July 15 and U.S. June CPI year-on-year on the same day [1] - Additional important events include U.S. June PPI year-on-year on July 16 and the release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book on July 17 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. have decreased to a two-month low, indicating employers are reluctant to lay off workers, while the continuing claims remain high, suggesting difficulties for unemployed individuals in finding new jobs [1] Group 1: Initial Jobless Claims - The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5 decreased by 5,000 to 227,000, marking the fourth consecutive week of decline and the lowest level in two months [1] - The fluctuation in initial jobless claims during the summer school break and federal holidays is attributed to temporary and seasonal workers experiencing repeated employment and unemployment [1] Group 2: Continuing Jobless Claims - Continuing jobless claims rose to 1.97 million last week, the highest level since the end of 2021, indicating ongoing challenges for unemployed individuals in securing new employment [1] - The increase in continuing claims contrasts with the decrease in initial claims, highlighting a complex labor market situation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending July 5 is reported at 227,000, which is lower than the expected 235,000 and a slight adjustment from the previous value of 233,000, revised to 232,000 [1] Summary by Category - **Initial Jobless Claims** - The reported figure of 227,000 initial jobless claims indicates a decrease compared to the expected 235,000 [1] - The previous week's claims were revised down from 233,000 to 232,000, showing a minor adjustment in the data [1]

美国至7月5日当周初请失业金人数将于十分钟后公布。 ...