Core Insights - The stock market is currently at its most expensive valuation in over two decades, with the S&P 500 Index reaching new all-time highs and rebounding from sell-offs [1] - Despite high valuations, investors continue to drive the market higher, indicating a strong market sentiment [1][2] Valuation Metrics - The Shiller Cape Ratio for the S&P 500 is around 38, similar to levels seen before market crashes in 2021 and during the dot-com bubble [4][5] - The S&P 500 trades at a historically high 23 times forward earnings, driven largely by the performance of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, each exceeding a trillion-dollar market cap [5] Investor Sentiment - Billionaire investor David Tepper expressed discomfort with current stock multiples but acknowledged the difficulty of staying out of the market due to ongoing Federal Reserve support [6][8] - Tepper noted that the Fed is expected to cut rates two more times this year and once in 2026, which he views as supportive for stocks despite concerns about inflation and economic risks [7]

·人民银行、证监会、外汇局联合香港金管局正式推出跨境债券回购业务 ·美联储官员激辩降息路径：有人敦促加速降息有人认为今年没必要再降息 ·欧洲央行发布数字欧元创新平台研究成果 ·瑞士央行将基准利率维持在0% ·瑞典央行宣布降息25个基点 【全球央行动态】 ·中国人民银行、证监会、国家外汇管理局联合香港金管局正式推出跨境债券回购业务，支持所有已进 入内地在岸债券市场的境外机构参与在岸债券回购业务，从在岸市场获得人民币流动性，并汇出境外使 用。上海清算所表示，境外机构初期可先行参与买断式回购，后续将逐步引入质押式回购。 ·香港金管局宣布，将从今年10月9日起，推出人民币业务资金安排，取代现有的人民币贸易融资流动资 金安排，并实施多项优化措施及扩展合资格资金用途。 ·美联储官员发言一览： 理事米兰指出，当前的政策利率远高于他所估计的"中性"水平，正处于"高度限制性"的区间。美联 储"可以通过一轮非常短暂的、每次50个基点的降息来达到目标"。 理事鲍曼重申，美国的就业市场"脆弱"，通胀则接近联储目标，因此呼吁坚定降息。美联储应努力将资 产负债表控制在最小规模，并改革其货币政策执行机制。 里士满联储主席巴尔金表示，不确定 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The gold market has strong performance, with prices hitting new highs, and the silver increase is greater than that of gold. The market focuses on the US government shutdown risk and Trump's tariff risk. The short - term gold price is expected to run at a high level with increased volatility [3][14]. - The treasury bond futures are in the stage of shock bottom - building. After adjustment, the bond market valuation is gradually reasonable. The bond market will gradually desensitize to negative factors and return to fundamental trading [16]. - The demand for动力煤is weak, and the price is expected to remain near the long - term agreement price. Attention should be paid to coal supply policies [4][19]. - The iron ore price is expected to continue the box - type shock, and the trend market needs to wait. Attention should be paid to the demand for finished products after the National Day and the changes in coal supply policies [22]. - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to decline in September, and the inventory - building pressure will slow down significantly. It is recommended to wait and see before the National Day [23][24]. - The downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and there may be a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [29]. - The external cotton market is under seasonal supply pressure, and the domestic new cotton harvest will face challenges in downstream demand. The market pressure in the fourth quarter is large [33]. - The coking coal and coke market shows different trends between spot and futures before the festival. The spot price rises due to pre - festival stockpiling, while the futures are worried about post - festival demand and show a shock trend [34]. - The supply and demand of豆粕is weak, and the future price is mainly driven by policies. Attention should be paid to the USDA quarterly inventory report, South American weather and Sino - US relations [38]. - The steel price has limited upward space and needs to pay attention to the callback risk. It is recommended to take a light - position shock approach before the festival [40][41]. - The starch price difference may be undervalued, and there may be a safety margin for widening at low prices [43]. - The medium - term view of玉米is bearish, and the 11 - contract may decline more than the 01 - contract after the National Day [44]. - The red date futures price has risen sharply, and it is recommended to operate short - term. Attention should be paid to the development of jujube fruits in the production area and downstream consumption [47]. - The lithium carbonate price may decline in the long - term under the pressure of inventory - building at the end of the year, but the decline space is limited in the peak season before the actual resumption of production [50]. - The lead price is expected to remain in shock in the short - term, and it is recommended to lay out long positions at low prices and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [52]. - The zinc price decline space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [54]. - The PX price will be in shock adjustment in the short - term [56]. - The PTA price is in a shock trend, and it is recommended to adopt a band strategy [59]. - The downward space of the caustic soda futures price is limited [62]. - The paper pulp market is expected to be in a weak shock [64]. - The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to domestic policy benefits [65]. - The fundamentals of苯乙烯are weak in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to whether the sentiment can be boosted [67]. - The soda ash price is recommended to be shorted at high prices, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [68]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and shorting on soda ash 2601 [70]. - The container freight index fluctuates greatly before the festival, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [72][73]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin is cautious about the prospect of interest rate cuts. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman believes that decisive action is needed to cut interest rates. The US 8 - month core PCE price index increased by 0.2% month - on - month [12][13][14]. - The gold price fluctuated and closed higher on Friday, hitting a new high. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals were strong, and silver rose more than gold. The market focuses on the US government shutdown risk and Trump's tariff risk. It is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday [14][15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank carried out 165.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 411.5 billion yuan on the same day [16]. - Some institutions may choose to hold cash for the holiday due to concerns about the new regulations on public bond funds. However, the impact is limited. The treasury bond futures are in the stage of shock bottom - building, and it is recommended to take a shock approach in the short - term [16][17]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (动力煤) - Some coal mines stopped or reduced production at the end of the month, and the supply decreased slightly. The downstream only maintained rigid demand procurement, and the port coal price stagnated and declined this week [18]. - The demand is weak, and the price is expected to remain near the long - term agreement price. Attention should be paid to coal supply policies [19]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The construction of the Simandou project has made breakthroughs, and the equipment production and shipment are advancing simultaneously [20]. - The iron ore price is in a shock market, and it is expected to continue the box - type shock. Attention should be paid to the demand for finished products after the National Day and the changes in coal supply policies [22]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From September 1 to 25, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 4.14% month - on - month [23]. - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to decline in September, and the inventory - building pressure will slow down significantly. It is recommended to wait and see before the National Day [23][24]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - As of the week of September 24, the amount of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 3.1039 million tons, a decrease of 5.44% from the previous week [25]. - In the 25/26 sugar - making season, 3 sugar mills in Xinjiang have started operation. The sugar production in Xinjiang is expected to be about 700,000 tons [26]. - The market expects that the sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil will increase by 15% year - on - year in the first half of September. The downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and there may be a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [28][29]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The CCI in India may purchase cotton without limit due to the low cotton price. The new cotton in India has been on the market, and the cotton price in the northern region has dropped by about 5 - 6% in the past two weeks [30]. - The export signing volume of US cotton decreased in the week of September 12 - 18, and the shipment volume increased. The external cotton market is under seasonal supply pressure, and the domestic new cotton harvest will face challenges in downstream demand. The market pressure in the fourth quarter is large [32][33]. 2.6 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. Before the festival, the coking coal market showed different trends between spot and futures. The spot price rose due to pre - festival stockpiling, while the futures were worried about post - festival demand and showed a shock trend [34]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (豆粕) - It is estimated that the soybean crushing volume in China will be 9.42 million tons in October, and the arrival volume of imported soybeans is expected to be 9.49 million tons, 8.5 million tons, and 8 million tons from October to December respectively [35][36]. - The supply and demand of豆粕is weak, and the future price is mainly driven by policies. Attention should be paid to the USDA quarterly inventory report, South American weather and Sino - US relations [38]. 2.8 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased to 2.42 million tons. The inventory of five major varieties decreased slightly this week, and the demand for building materials increased seasonally, but the demand elasticity is not optimistic. The steel price has limited upward space and needs to pay attention to the callback risk. It is recommended to take a light - position shock approach before the festival [39][40][41]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong on September 22 were - 55 yuan/ton, - 179 yuan/ton, 7 yuan/ton, and - 82 yuan/ton respectively [42]. - The starch price difference may be undervalued, and there may be a safety margin for widening at low prices [43]. 2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of September 25, the average inventory of feed enterprises was 26.01 days, a decrease of 0.57% from the previous week [44]. - The medium - term view of玉米is bearish, and the 11 - contract may decline more than the 01 - contract after the National Day [44]. 2.11 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market fluctuated slightly. The futures price of red dates rose sharply, and it is recommended to operate short - term. Attention should be paid to the development of jujube fruits in the production area and downstream consumption [45][47]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Longpan Times stopped production on September 25 and is expected to resume production in November. Salt Lake Co., Ltd.'s 40,000 - ton/year basic lithium salt integration project started trial production, and Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project was officially put into operation [48][49][50]. - The lithium carbonate price may decline in the long - term under the pressure of inventory - building at the end of the year, but the decline space is limited in the peak season before the actual resumption of production [50]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On September 26, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $41.63/ton. The lead price is expected to remain in shock in the short - term, and it is recommended to lay out long positions at low prices and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [51][52]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On September 26, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $39.84/ton. The zinc price decline space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [53][54]. 2.15 Energy Chemical Industry (PX) - A refinery in the northeast plans to shut down its reforming unit for about 10 days starting from September 27. The PX price will be in shock adjustment in the short - term [55][56]. 2.16 Energy Chemical Industry (PTA) - The negotiation in the PTA spot market weakened, and the basis loosened. The PTA price is in a shock trend, and it is recommended to adopt a band strategy [57][59]. 2.17 Energy Chemical Industry (Caustic Soda) - On September 26, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased locally. The downward space of the caustic soda futures price is limited [60][62]. 2.18 Energy Chemical Industry (Paper Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was mainly stable. The paper pulp market is expected to be in a weak shock [63][64]. 2.19 Energy Chemical Industry (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in the domestic market was weakly sorted. The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to domestic policy benefits [65]. 2.20 Energy Chemical Industry (Styrene) - The weekly consumption of styrene's main downstream products decreased by 4.46% from the previous week. The fundamentals of苯乙烯are weak in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to whether the sentiment can be boosted [66][67]. 2.21 Energy Chemical Industry (Soda Ash) - On September 26, the price of soda ash in the South China market remained stable. The soda ash price is recommended to be shorted at high prices, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [67][68]. 2.22 Energy Chemical Industry (Float Glass) - On September 26, the price of float glass in the Shahe market increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and shorting on soda ash 2601 [69][70]. 2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight) - The EU's shipping fuel regulations have "killed" the demand for methanol - powered ships. Before the festival, the container freight index fluctuated greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [71][72][73].

Group 1: US Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Outlook - The US dollar index is stable above 98, potentially recording the largest weekly gain in two months, as US economic growth data diminishes expectations for further Fed easing this year [1] - The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in October has risen to approximately 12%, up from 8.1% the previous day; the cumulative rate cut expectation for the year has decreased to less than 40 basis points [1] - The upcoming release of the August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is anticipated, with a year-on-year increase forecasted at 2.7%, up from 2.6% in July [1] Group 2: Currency Performance and Market Expectations - The Japanese yen has become one of the worst-performing currencies this week, dropping to an eight-week low due to its sensitivity to Fed's hawkish re-pricing, with market expectations for a 14 basis point rate hike from the Bank of Japan in October [1] - The overall inflation rate in Japan for September decreased to 2.5%, below the expected 2.8%, while core inflation unexpectedly fell to 2.5%, the lowest since March [1] - ING predicts that the strong dollar will partially reverse if the market reaffirms expectations for two rate cuts by the Fed this year, with the yen likely benefiting [2] Group 3: UK Economic Concerns and Currency Impact - The British pound has declined nearly 1% this week, following a 0.6% drop last week, with a cumulative decline of 1.1% for the month, driven by concerns over the UK's long-term fiscal outlook [3] - The yield on 10-year UK government bonds surged, marking the largest single-day increase since early July, reflecting market worries about fiscal conditions [3] - The UK Chancellor is expected to present a budget in November that may include additional tax measures to maintain fiscal rules and gain bond market trust, amid rising borrowing costs and high inflation limiting the Bank of England's rate cut capacity [3]

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to remain strong through the end of this year and into 2026, supported by new administration policies [3][4] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is currently at 2.9%, with expectations it may decrease to 2.8%, still above the Fed's target of 2% [5][6] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is likely to implement further rate cuts in the next two meetings, aligning with market expectations [4][5] - The Fed aims to gradually reduce inflation to 2% over the next two years, avoiding rapid changes that could destabilize the economy [6][9] Inflation Management - The Fed is expected to look through temporary inflationary effects from tariffs, which are anticipated to be smaller and delayed compared to previous expectations [8][9] - There is a discussion about potentially adopting a range for inflation targeting (2% to 3%) instead of a strict 2% target, although the current preference remains for a single target for clearer communication [10][11] Data Dependency and Challenges - The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report may be affected by a government shutdown, raising concerns about data availability for the Fed's decision-making [11][12] - The Fed has previously managed through similar situations, but the lack of data is not ideal for assessing the economy's state [12][13] Review of Economic Models - There is a call for a thorough review of the Fed's operational models, especially in light of the post-pandemic economic landscape [15][16] - The idea of running a new model in parallel with the existing one is suggested to improve future economic assessments [16]

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge showed little progress in August, a trend that is expected to keep the central bank on course for upcoming interest rate cuts. The Commerce Department reported Friday that the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2. ...

US stocks edged higher on Friday after the release of closely watched inflation data that met expectations and reinforced bets on further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 rose 0.2%, the Nasdaq Composite gained slightly, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 190 points, or 0.4%. ...

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge showed that inflationary pressures remained elevated in August, as policymakers seek to balance the need to restore price stability against a weakening labor market following last week's interest rate cut. The Commerce Department on Friday reported that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index rose 0.3% in August from a month ago and is up 2.7% from last year. Those figures were in line with the estimate of LSEG economists.Core PCE, which excludes vol ...

Core Inflation and Interest Rates - Core inflation remained stable in August, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increasing by 0.3% for the month, resulting in an annual headline inflation rate of 2.7% [1] - The core PCE price level, excluding food and energy, was reported at 2.9% on an annual basis after a monthly rise of 0.2% [2] - The Federal Reserve is likely to proceed with interest rate reductions, with indications of two more quarter percentage point cuts before the end of the year [3] Consumer Spending and Economic Resilience - Personal income rose by 0.4% for the month, while personal consumption expenditures increased at a pace of 0.6%, both exceeding estimates by 0.1 percentage point [3] - Despite the impact of tariffs, consumer spending has remained strong, supported by stable income levels [4] Tariffs and Price Impact - President Trump's tariffs have had a limited effect on consumer prices, as companies have utilized pre-tariff inventory and cost-absorbing measures to mitigate price increases [4] - Fed officials suggest that tariffs may provide a one-time boost to prices rather than a sustained increase in underlying inflation [5] Market Expectations - Markets are anticipating a rate cut in October, with less certainty regarding another cut in December [6] - The Federal Open Market Committee recently approved a quarter percentage point reduction in the fed funds rate, bringing the target range to 4%-4.25% [6]

新华财经北京9月26日电路透调查显示，澳洲联储下周将把利率维持在3.60%，因劳动力市场依然紧 张，政策制定者在等待通胀缓解的确切迹象。 穆迪分析澳洲经济主管Sunny Kim Nguyen表示，"澳洲联储几乎没有急于行动的动力，虽然失业率逐步 攀升。但与疫情前的常态相比，劳动力市场仍然相对紧张。因此可以等待，尤其是等待第三季通胀数 据，以确保不会过早重燃物价压力。" （文章来源：新华财经） 尽管分析师仍认为到今年年底利率将降至3.35%，但有几位受访者推迟对11月降息的预期，指因月度通 胀指标上升。在多次降息后，澳洲第二季经济增长回升，失业率也相对稳定，这表明澳洲联储可以放缓 宽松步伐。 ...