Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,074.90 per ounce on Friday, up 0.4% from Thursday’s close of $4,060. The price of gold declined in early trading. Gold’s price continues to be heavily influenced by the short-term outlook for interest rates. The probability for a quarter-point rate reduction in December increased slightly Friday to 43.6% from 39.1% on Thursday, according to CME FedWatch. The Fed reduced interest twice this year in response to weak labor market data. The latest employment report, release ...

US stock futures struggled on Monday to revive a rally stalled by doubts about interest-rate cuts, as investors looked ahead to high-stakes Nvidia (NVDA) earnings and the delayed September jobs report. Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ=F) rose roughly 0.3%, while those on the S&P 500 (ES=F) added 0.1%. Contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F), which includes fewer tech stocks, traded broadly flat. Wall Street is already getting set for Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings on Wednesday, always an intensely scrutini ...

The final full week of trading for the month of November will bring investors two crucial earnings reports and the restoration of the September jobs report, which will set the tone for the year's final weeks of trading. Results from Nvidia (NVDA) after the close on Wednesday and Walmart (WMT) on Thursday morning will provide an update on the AI trade and the US consumer, which have offered investors reasons for enthusiasm and caution in the last few weeks. This past week, US stocks battled their way back ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a shift in its committee composition, which may influence interest rate policies in the upcoming year, particularly with the retirement of Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic, a known interest rate hawk [1][3]. Group 1: Changes in Fed Composition - Raphael Bostic's retirement in February opens a key position that could be filled by a more dovish appointee, potentially leading to a tilt towards more interest rate cuts [1][2]. - The Atlanta Fed does not have a voting role until 2027, but its non-voting members can still significantly impact policy discussions [2][3]. - The reappointment of all 12 regional Fed bank presidents is set to occur in March, a process that has historically been routine but may face scrutiny under the current administration [3]. Group 2: Political Influences - Questions have emerged regarding the potential influence of the Trump administration on the reappointment process of Fed officials [4]. - A Supreme Court ruling in January regarding the firing of Fed governor Lisa Cook could create another vacancy, allowing for a new appointment aligned with lower interest rate views [5]. - Analysts express skepticism about significant changes in the Fed's composition due to political pressures, suggesting that the process will remain stable [6][7]. Group 3: Future Leadership - The impending nomination of a new Fed Chair to replace Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May, is crucial, with candidates likely to favor lower interest rates [8]. - Potential nominees include current Fed governors and other economic leaders, all of whom are expected to adopt a more dovish stance on interest rates [8].

Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest level since May, trading below $100,000, marking a 20% decline over the past month [1][2] - Currently priced under $95,000, Bitcoin is at its lowest level in six months after reaching an all-time high of $126,000 in October [2] Warner Brothers Discovery - Warner Brothers Discovery is involved in a bidding war with Comcast, Netflix, and Paramount Sky Dance, with shares up approximately 115% year-to-date [3] Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December have decreased, with odds falling below 50% due to recent commentary from Fed officials [4][5] - Minneapolis Fed President expressed concerns that further rate cuts could exacerbate inflation rather than support the job market [5][6] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Nvidia is set to report earnings, with expectations of $123 per share and revenues of $54.5 billion, indicating over 50% growth from the previous year [7][8] - A range of retail companies, including Target, Walmart, and Gap, will also report earnings, providing insights into consumer spending habits [8] Chinese ADRs Performance - Despite poor economic indicators, Chinese ADRs like JD and Tencent have performed well, with Xpong seeing significant gains of over 100% year-to-date [9][10][11] - Upcoming earnings reports from companies like Pinduoduo and Xiaomi are anticipated, with Pinduoduo facing market share challenges [11][12]

for more on the state of the economy and the the murky macro picture here. We are joined by Vincent Reinhardt, BNY investments chief economist, former Fed economist, do do you expect them to not cut in December, Vince, at this point. >> Oh, I I think they'll cut.And I think your conversation just now was exactly right. And you asked the right question, as did as did, Carl. Uh the answer, what has changed over the last couple months.Not a whole lot. We don't have a lot of data to support a a a changed outloo ...

are getting some breaking news out of the Fed. For that, let's get to Steve Leeman. Hey, Steve. >> Hey, Carl.Yeah, timing is everything. You ask about Schmidt. We got Schmidt here, Kansas City Fed President, uh, who desented at the last meeting, saying monetary policy is modestly restrictive, and that, he says, is where it should be.He suggests in the speech he's about to give his intention to oppose additional cuts again in December. Says he mind could change, but right now, that's the way he's leaning. cu ...

Welcome back to Morning Trade Live. It's time now for the big picture. Let's welcome in Colin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy, Schwab Center for Financial Research.So, we're seeing a bit of a sell-off here and a few moving parts. I'm just looking at the latest Fed commentary actually coming out of Jeffrey Schmid, which has been an interesting dot there, particularly with regards to not agreeing with the rate cut that we saw the previous month. and then once again saying that uh he's unsur ...

Market Overview - The reopening of the government led to a market selloff, with the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 down 2.3% and 2.8% respectively, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.6% [2] - The current market environment is characterized by a reset in asset valuations rather than panic, as bond prices remained stable despite falling equities and rising volatility [3][4] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts has contributed to a loss of confidence, with the probability of a rate cut in December now at 50% [4] - Recent earnings growth of approximately 13% year-over-year has not been sufficient to maintain elevated valuations, leading to a market adjustment [4] Cryptocurrency Impact - Bitcoin prices fell below the critical support level of $100K, trading down to $95K, which may raise broader investor concerns [5] Artificial Intelligence Investments - Companies investing heavily in AI are yet to demonstrate returns on those investments, with the focus primarily on capital expenditures rather than profitability [6] Employment and Consumer Sentiment - Notable layoffs, including Verizon's announcement of 15,000 to 20,000 job cuts, indicate a weakening employment situation, compounded by low consumer sentiment [7] Upcoming Market Events - Key earnings reports from Walmart and Target will provide insights into the health of the overall economy, particularly regarding the holiday season [9] - The release of minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting is anticipated to shed light on internal debates and monetary policy discussions [9] Investment Opportunities - Stocks that have experienced significant pullbacks may present opportunities for dollar-cost averaging, while increased volatility could benefit options traders [10]

格隆汇11月14日｜FP Markets首席市场分析师Aaron Hill在一份报告中表示，由于近期政府停摆导致官方 数据缺失，美联储十二月政策会议给决策者带来了艰难的挑战。美联储内部仍然存在分歧且保持谨慎， 尽管一些美联储官员仍支持降息，但"有意义的鹰派重新定价已经发生"，投资者不确定利率是否会被下 调。LSEG数据显示，货币市场目前定价降息与维持利率不变的概率大致相等。 来源：格隆汇APP ...