Group 1: Company Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite advanced on July 31, 2025, driven by strong earnings from Meta and Microsoft, indicating renewed investor confidence in Big Tech's AI-driven growth [1] - Meta shares surged 11% on July 31, 2025, after exceeding earnings estimates and providing stronger-than-expected guidance, while increasing AI-related investments [1] - Microsoft stock rose 4% on July 31, 2025, following impressive fiscal Q4 results, pushing its market cap past $4 trillion [1][2] Group 2: Analyst Upgrades - HSBC upgraded Meta Platforms to Buy from Hold with a price target of $900, up from $610 [2] - KeyBanc upgraded Microsoft to Overweight from Sector Weight with a price target of $630 following its fiscal Q4 report [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy rebounded strongly in Q2 2025, with GDP growing at an annualized rate of 3%, surpassing Bloomberg economists' forecast of 2.6% [6] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed price growth accelerated in June, keeping inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [3] Group 4: Market Trends - Easing trade tensions, including a key deal with South Korea setting a 15% tariff on Korean imports, are contributing to a favorable economic environment [5] - ETFs such as Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), and Invesco QQQ Trust Series I (QQQ) are positioned to benefit from the current economic situation and the ongoing AI rally [7][8]

美国有线电视新闻网报道截图 中国人民大学经济学院教授王晋斌接受中央广播电视总台环球资讯广播记者采访时分析说，这次美联储维持利率不变 符合市场预期。 当地时间7月30日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至 4.50%之间不变。这是美联储连续第五次决定维持利率不变。 美联储公开市场委员会当天发布公告说，尽管净出口波动继续影响数据，但近期指标显示上半年经济活动放缓，失业 率依然维持在低位，就业市场条件依然稳固，通胀仍处于较高水平。 美联储主席鲍威尔在当天举行的记者会上表示，实施适度约束性的货币政策看起来是合适的。他说，美联储尚未就9 月份货币政策作出决定，这取决于下一次议息会议前公布的就业和通胀等数据。 路透社报道截图 外界注意到，在本次议息会议上，有两名美联储理事同时投下了反对票，要求立即降息25个基点，这是30多年来的首 次。 王晋斌表示，这并不预示着，美联储将在9月降息。 按照美联储的解释，现在美国的物价仍然略高于通胀目标，二季度的国内生产总值（GDP）比一季度要好，而且优于 市场预期，且失业率处于低位。但从美联储视角来看，要考虑防止通胀反弹。由于未来存 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth time this year that rates have been held steady, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy amid economic uncertainties [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve's July meeting resulted in no change to interest rates, aligning with market expectations [1] - Economic activity has slowed in the first half of the year, while the labor market remains robust, but inflation levels are still considered high [1] - There is significant uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, which influences the Fed's cautious stance [1] Group 2: Internal Disagreements - For the first time in over 30 years, two Federal Reserve governors voted against the rate decision, indicating increasing internal policy disagreements [1][2] - The dissenting votes came from Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller, both appointed by former President Trump, who favored an immediate 25 basis point rate cut [2] - Chairman Powell stated that the dissenting members would explain their reasons in the coming days, highlighting the ongoing pressures from the Trump administration for rate cuts [2]

7月31日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.1494，下调53点。 美联储维持利率4.25%-4.50%不变 美国联邦储备委员会宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%-4.50%不变，符合市场预期。这是美联 储连续第五次维持利率不变，反映其对通胀高企和特朗普政府关税政策不确定性的谨慎态度。 美联储主席：尚未就9月利率做出任何决定 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，现在就断言美联储是否会像金融市场预期的那样在9月下调联邦基金利率还为 时过早。 鲍威尔在最新一轮货币政策会议后的新闻发布会上表示，美联储尚未就9月利率做出任何决定。鲍威尔 表示，他们"将在下次议息会议前夕参考有关经济的信息"。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

| 贵金属日评20250730: 美国财政部或待利率下降后再增发长债,待美国GDP和就业等数据 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-07-23 | 2025-07-29 | 2025-07-28 | 收盘价 | 774. 78 | 771. 44 | 792. 90 | -3. 34 | -21.46 | | | | | | | | 成交量 | 219932.00 | 286795. 00 | -36, 087. 00 | 256019.00 | -66, 863. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 222387.00 | 212407.00 | 209675.00 | 2, 732. 00 | -9, 980. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 31263.00 | 30258.00 | 28857.00 | 2, 406. 00 | 1,00 ...

Global Central Bank Dynamics - The G20 Development Ministers' meeting took place in Mpumalanga, South Africa, discussing issues such as enhancing social protection and combating illicit financial flows [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) paused its interest rate cuts for the first time since June 2024, citing trade disputes as a major source of policy uncertainty [1] - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, with officials indicating that recent political events have minimal impact on the gradual rate hike stance [2] - The Central Bank of Russia lowered its benchmark rate from 20% to 18%, aligning with market expectations while maintaining a tight monetary policy until inflation targets are met [2] - The Central Bank of Turkey reduced its benchmark rate from 46% to 43%, marking the beginning of a new rate-cutting cycle [2] Market Observations - PIMCO economists noted that despite President Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve, he is unlikely to replace Chairman Powell, instead using upcoming appointments to influence monetary policy [3] - Economists from ING highlighted that while Tokyo's inflation has eased, it remains high enough to support the Bank of Japan's consideration of policy normalization [4] - Analysts from Capital Economics pointed out that upcoming U.S. tariffs could introduce new uncertainties for the South African economy, which is already facing economic weakness [4] Upcoming Focus - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates due to strong recent economic data, with market attention on Powell's statements following the rate decision [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article discusses the recent interest rate cut by the Russian central bank from 20% to 18%, with a forecast to further reduce it to 14% by the end of the year, highlighting the implications for savings and loans in the Russian economy [3][5][10] - The interest rate of 18% is significantly higher than in many other countries, making saving attractive but borrowing extremely costly, which could stifle economic activity [4][6][12] - The central bank's decision to cut rates is seen as a response to decreasing inflation, which has dropped from a peak of 12.8% to 4.3%, indicating a potential stabilization of the economy [6][8][9] Group 2 - The central bank's rate cut is described as a "medicine" for the economy, aimed at alleviating the financial burden on businesses and encouraging investment, as high rates previously restricted economic growth [7][10] - The article outlines three key factors that give the central bank confidence in lowering rates: reduced inflation, the need for economic recovery, and a stabilized currency exchange rate [8][9][12] - Despite the rate cuts, the article warns that the underlying issues in the Russian economy, such as technological isolation and labor shortages, remain unresolved, suggesting that the economic recovery may be slow and challenging [11][12][13]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越、王茂宇、赵宇 联系人 | 李欣越 大类资产&海外事件&数据：美日关税协议达成，发达市场多数上涨 发达市场延续上涨，焦煤大幅上行。 当周，标普500上涨1.5%，日经225上涨4.1%；10Y美债收益率下行 4.0bp至4.4%；美元指数下跌0.8%至97.67，离岸人民币升值至7.1681；WTI原油下跌3.2%至65.2美元/桶， COMEX黄金下跌0.6%至3329.1美元/盎司。 美国与日本、印尼、菲律宾三国敲定贸易协定。 日本方面，美国将对日本征收15%关税，低于此前威胁 的25%。日本承诺向美国投资5500 亿美元。印尼方面，美国将对印尼征收19%关税，低于此前威胁的 25%。菲律宾方面，美方将原定的20%关税降至19%。 美国7月Markit制造业PMI回落，欧央行维持利率不变。 美国7月Markit制造业PMI为49.5，市场预期 52.7，关税对于美国工业生产的扰动仍然存在。欧央行7月会议维持利率不变，符合市场预期，主因通胀 回到目标，经济表现符合预期。关注下周7月美联储FOMC例会。 风险提示 摘要 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓 ...

据中新经纬报道，特朗普访问美联储，有意思的是特朗普当着记者面，直接询问鲍威尔"什么时候降息？" 本次特朗普以考察美联储大楼翻修情况的名义正式造访美联储。这场造访之路历经了20多年。 此前，特朗普因为加征关税，爱泼斯坦案，身体健康等问题引起美国民众的不满，支持率一跌再跌。 令人可笑的是，特朗普在镜头面前展示出独有的笑容时，美联储主席鲍威尔却面无表情，甚至镜头敏锐的捕捉了鲍威尔轻微摇头的画面。这样的动作犹如一 颗石子，投入平静的湖面，激起千层波浪。 双方利率之争一触即发。特朗普进一步以美联储大楼翻修，成本超出预支为由，想要以此介入美联储。 美联储作为美国中央银行，应该对于经济形势有着宏观的判断，而并非遵从政治要求，如果每联储的独立性受到破坏，那么对于那些一直购买美债的投资 者，将要收到巨大的打击，剧烈的经济冲击，引起金融市场的动荡。 特朗普与鲍威尔有非常渊源的交集，他们曾在公开场合对峙。早些年，特朗普曾经公开抨击美联储加息的决定，甚至还说出想要炒掉鲍威尔。 疫情期间，特朗普更是以总统的身份施压美联储配合自己的经济政策。 在美国，美联储拥有绝对的独立地位。曾经，美联储迫于政治压力配合政府增长目标而维持低利率，最终引 ...

华盛顿风云：利率战场上的"凡尔赛宫"闹剧 7月24日下午，一幕略带荒诞色彩的政治剧在美国的心脏地带上演。打破近二十年的惯例，时任美国总统特朗普突 访美联储总部，而此行的目的，却远不止表面上的视察那么简单。 在众目睽睽之下，特朗普头戴一顶醒目的白色安全帽，站在尚未完工的美联储大楼工地前。他手持一份文件，径 直递给身旁的美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。纸上赫然写着"31亿美元"的巨额数字。"这楼修得比凡尔赛宫还贵！"特 朗普 громко заявил，仿佛在向全世界宣告这笔惊人的开销。 "炒掉鲍威尔"的说法早已不是新鲜事。今年以来，特朗普曾多次公开表达对鲍威尔的不满，甚至有商务部长直接 喊话让其"自己辞职"。然而，在法律层面，解雇美联储主席并非易事。鲍威尔的任期将持续到2026年5月，且最高 法院此前已经裁定，总统不能因为政策分歧而解雇美联储主席。 面对法律的限制，特朗普团队似乎早已准备好了Plan B。他们紧抓大楼翻修的"超支"问题不放，试图将罪名往"渎 职"上靠。共和党议员卢娜甚至已经向司法部举报鲍威尔"作伪证"，要求进行刑事调查。财政部长贝森特则更加直 接，公开表示将在年底提名新的美联储主席人选。 这场 пол ...