Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department is implementing sanctions against entities and individuals related to the Houthis' oil smuggling and evasion networks, targeting those involved in significant oil product imports and money laundering groups associated with the Houthis [1] Group 1 - The sanctions will affect entities and individuals in Yemen and the UAE [1] - The targeted individuals and entities are key players in the oil importation and money laundering operations linked to the Houthis [1]

美国财政部对也门和阿联酋的部分实体实施制裁。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the product varieties in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices fluctuated and declined. Iran will hold nuclear negotiations with the UK, France, and Germany on Friday. The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil. In July, the operating rates of domestic refineries increased, but the overall demand for oil prices has limited driving force, and it is expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contracts rose. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened further, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market continued to be under pressure. The expected arrival volume from the European market in July will increase by 30 - 400,000 tons. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market faces supply pressure from stable Middle - Eastern shipments. The LU - FU spread has narrowed, and it is advisable to continue holding the spread short position [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract rose. In August, northern demand will be further released, and some refineries' production enthusiasm has increased. However, refineries without crude oil quotas have no production plans, and some refineries in Shandong have maintenance plans. The short - term unilateral driving force of the asphalt market is not obvious, and it mainly fluctuates narrowly following the cost - end crude oil. Short - term long positions can be considered after the oil price stabilizes [3]. - **Polyester**: On Monday, the main polyester contracts rose. The sales of polyester yarn in the Yangtze River Delta were average. Some synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plants restarted. The inventory in the main ports in East China decreased. The macro - environment has strengthened the expectation of industry structural adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity. The EG device overseas has poor recovery, and the inventory accumulation expectation is weakened. The TA supply has little change, and it follows the cost to oscillate strongly in the short term [3][4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main rubber contracts rose. The inventory in Qingdao decreased. The continuous rainfall in the main rubber - producing areas has disrupted tapping operations. The downstream tire inventory is high and stable, and the demand has improved slightly. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the changes in the external macro - environment and extreme weather such as typhoons [4]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the methanol price showed a certain pattern. The load of Iranian devices has recovered to a high point, and the arrival volume has also increased. The downstream profit has recovered, and the start - up is expected to remain stable. The 9 - 1 spread and basis have returned to the normal range, and the price has returned to an oscillating trend [7]. - **Polyolefin**: On Monday, the polyolefin price was in a certain state. Polyolefin will gradually transition to a situation of strong supply and demand, and the fundamental contradiction is not prominent. If the cost end does not decline significantly, the downside space of polyolefin is also limited [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Monday, the PVC market price increased. The enterprise start - up has recovered, but the demand has not improved significantly. The basis and monthly spread have widened again, and the arbitrage space has gradually opened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to excessive market news [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI August contract closed down $0.14 to $67.20 per barrel, a decline of 0.21%. Brent September contract closed down $0.07 to $69.21 per barrel, a decline of 0.10%. SC2509 closed at 509.1 yuan per barrel, down 6.2 yuan per barrel, a decline of 1.20% [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main fuel oil contract FU2509 rose 1.53% to 2924 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2510 rose 0.19% to 3602 yuan per ton [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract BU2509 rose 0.27% to 3657 yuan per ton [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4780 yuan per ton, up 0.76%. EG2509 closed at 4410 yuan per ton, up 0.78%. The basis increased by 14 yuan per ton to 65 yuan per ton, and the spot price was 4469 yuan per ton [3][4]. - **Rubber**: The main rubber contract RU2509 rose 85 yuan per ton to 14895 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract rose 75 yuan per ton to 12750 yuan per ton [4]. - **Methanol**: The Taicang spot price was 2398 yuan per ton, the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1990 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was 268 - 272 US dollars per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was 328 - 333 US dollars per ton [7]. - **Polyolefin**: The mainstream price of East China drawstring was 7050 - 7150 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 400.04 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based PP production was 741.07 yuan per ton [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The price of the East China PVC market increased. The price of calcium carbide - based type 5 material was 5000 - 5080 yuan per ton, and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based material was 4950 - 53000 yuan per ton [7][8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical varieties on July 21 and July 18, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc [9]. 3.3 Market News - The lack of progress in US trade negotiations and the EU's latest sanctions have not weakened Russia's energy exports, leading to lingering concerns about crude oil demand in the market. The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including including the Indian Nayara Energy Company, which processes Russian crude oil, in the sanctions scope and further lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [13][15][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [26][28][32]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: It provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc [39][41][44]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: It shows the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc [56][59]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: It presents the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc [62][63][65]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts such as Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo [68][69][70] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [73]

Core Viewpoint - The President of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, asserts that Mexico has no reason to face sanctions due to adjustments made to the capital airport system [1] Group 1 - The adjustments to the capital airport system are defended by the Mexican government as necessary and justified [1] - President López Obrador emphasizes that these changes should not lead to any punitive measures against Mexico [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has allowed the export of the H20 chip to China, but Chinese companies, including ByteDance, have shown little interest in purchasing it, indicating that China may have developed equivalent AI chips on its own [1][4][6]. Group 1: U.S.-China Chip Trade Dynamics - The U.S. aims to keep China dependent on lower-tier chips to delay its advancements in the semiconductor industry [6]. - The U.S. government is perceived to be using the H20 chip as a means to control China's technological progress, while China has likely developed its own competitive chips [6][10]. Group 2: China's Response to Export Controls - China has included battery cathode material preparation technology in its export control list, reflecting its dominance in this area, controlling 90% of global production capacity [6][7]. - The adjustment of China's export control list indicates a strategic move to protect its technological advancements and maintain its competitive edge [7]. Group 3: Evolving Trade Strategies - The ongoing trade tensions have led to a situation where both countries are employing export controls, blurring the lines of who is sanctioning whom [8][10]. - The U.S. is gradually shifting from a strategy of mutual sanctions to a more open approach, recognizing that China has become increasingly self-sufficient in key technology sectors [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union has agreed on a new round of sanctions against Russia, focusing on significantly lowering the price cap on Russian oil and implementing a series of new financial and trade measures [1][2] Group 1: Oil Price Cap Mechanism - The new dynamic oil price cap mechanism will set the price for Russian oil exports to third countries at 15% below the average market price, reducing the price from $60 per barrel to approximately $47.60 [1] - This price cap will be reviewed every six months to adapt to market price changes [1] - The G7 initially established the price cap agreement in December 2022 to prevent Russia from funding its invasion of Ukraine [1] Group 2: Sanctions on Shipping and Financial Institutions - The 18th round of sanctions includes measures against 105 vessels in Russia's "shadow fleet," which are used to circumvent the price cap, bringing the total number of sanctioned vessels to over 400 [2] - The sanctions further prohibit transactions with 22 Russian banks [2] - A new trading ban related to the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines has been introduced, aimed at preventing maintenance, operation, or future use of these pipelines, which have not been operational since 2022 [2] Group 3: Military Supply Restrictions - The sanctions also target 26 entities that supply the Russian military-industrial complex, further restricting Moscow's access to dual-use technologies [2]

Group 1 - The UK, in coordination with the EU, has lowered the price cap on Russian oil exports from $60 per barrel to $47.6 per barrel, aiming to impact the Russian oil industry significantly [1] - This reduction in the price cap is expected to decrease the market value of Russian crude oil and severely affect a crucial source of funding for Russia [1] - The UK has also announced sanctions against three agencies affiliated with the Russian intelligence service and 18 intelligence personnel, citing their involvement in long-term cyberattack operations [1]

Group 1 - India's Oil and Gas Minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, asserts that India will not succumb to U.S. threats regarding secondary sanctions on countries purchasing Russian energy products, emphasizing India's right to decide its energy procurement sources [1] - The share of Russian crude oil in India's imports has significantly increased since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, rising from approximately 2% in February 2022, while India has diversified its energy supply sources from about 27 to around 40 countries [1] - Over the past decade, India has accounted for 16% of the global increase in crude oil demand, with projections indicating that 25% of the world's new oil demand over the next 20 years will come from India, according to the International Energy Agency [1] Group 2 - Russia is a major global energy supplier, producing about 9 million barrels of oil per day, which constitutes approximately 10% of global daily production and consumption [2] - If Russian energy supplies were to exit the international market, it could lead to reduced energy consumption in other regions, potentially causing significant disruptions in heating, cooling, and transportation [2] - India's approach to energy procurement involves open import tenders, where the lowest bidder meeting the required product standards wins the contract, ensuring competitive pricing [2] Group 3 - Historically, U.S. sanctions have been viewed as a tool between diplomacy and warfare, with over 3,900 sanctions implemented during Trump's first term, marking the highest frequency of sanctions by any U.S. administration [3] - Evidence suggests that sanctions and blockades do not lead to peace, as seen in historical contexts such as the Cold War and ongoing geopolitical tensions, indicating that unreasonable sanctions often result in mutual losses and disrupt international political and economic order [3] - The recent U.S. threats of secondary sanctions are perceived as efforts to protect U.S. interests, potentially disrupting global energy market supply chains and exacerbating existing crises rather than resolving them [3]

Core Viewpoint - The 18th round of sanctions by Ukraine continues to target Russia's fleet of oil tankers, focusing not only on the vessels themselves but also on the captains of shadow fleets and the companies providing support [1] Group 1 - The sanctions aim to disrupt the operations of both visible and shadow fleets associated with Russia [1] - The measures include targeting individuals and entities that facilitate the operation of these oil tankers [1] - The ongoing sanctions reflect Ukraine's commitment to countering Russian maritime activities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, stated that every sanction imposed on Russia diminishes its capacity to wage war [1] Group 1 - Sanctions are a critical tool in weakening Russia's military capabilities [1] - The EU emphasizes the importance of continued sanctions to support Ukraine [1] - The statement reflects the EU's commitment to maintaining pressure on Russia through economic measures [1]