1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices may remain volatile in the short term but face downward risks in the medium to long term The overall supply - demand imbalance in the industry persists, with supply likely to exceed demand If the supply increment continues to be released, prices may be pressured downward [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contracts and Basis**: As of November 24, 2025, the prices of crude oil main contracts rose slightly. SC crude oil futures were reported at 447.9 yuan/barrel, up 0.5 yuan (0.11% increase) from 447.4 yuan/barrel on November 21; WTI crude oil futures were at 58.89 dollars/barrel, up 0.91 dollars (1.57% increase); Brent crude oil futures were at 62.75 dollars/barrel, up 0.86 dollars (1.39% increase) [2] - **Spreads**: SC - Brent spread was 0.28 dollars/barrel, down 0.75 dollars (72.82% decrease); SC - WTI spread was 4.14 dollars/barrel, down 0.8 dollars (16.19% decrease); Brent - WTI spread was 3.86 dollars/barrel, down 0.05 dollars (1.28% decrease); SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread was - 4.0 yuan/barrel, down 2.2 yuan (122.22% decrease), indicating a significant weakening of the spread and a relative weakening of near - month contracts [2] 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: Information shows potential supply increases. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company announced the establishment of a new company to manage the Ghasha gas field, with an expected daily production of 1.8 billion standard cubic feet of natural gas and 150,000 barrels of oil and condensate; Suriname opened 60% of its offshore oil and gas exploration areas; Russia's Tuapse refinery resumed oil processing on November 21; Abu Dhabi National Oil Company increased its oil reserves by 7 billion barrels to a total of 120 billion barrels Geopolitical factors may affect supply stability [3] - **Demand Side**: Demand signals are divided. The US Secretary of Commerce mentioned raising diesel prices with the EU, suggesting stronger refined oil demand; Indonesia's state - owned oil company sold 100,000 barrels of gasoline to VIVO However, Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 20 decreased by 14.1% - 20.5% month - on - month, and the decline in external markets such as crude oil futures may drag down overall energy demand; Russia's oil and gas revenues in November are expected to decline by 35% year - on - year, and Oman's fiscal revenue from January - September decreased by 8% due to reduced oil revenues [4] - **Inventory Side**: There is a lack of direct inventory indicators, but indirect evidence points to pressure. The decline in Russia's oil and gas revenues and Oman's fiscal revenue implies high inventory or oversupply; Indonesia's auction of a sanctioned oil tanker may reflect the disposal of excess crude oil inventory The risk of overall supply - demand imbalance has increased [5][6] 3.1.3 Price Trend Judgment - Crude oil prices may remain volatile in the short term but face downward risks in the medium to long term In the short term, the price increase on November 24 was due to supply - side events and partial demand - side support, but the widespread weakening of spreads shows market concerns about supply - demand balance The continuous expansion of supply may exacerbate oversupply, while the divided demand signals indicate unstable global demand Indirect inventory signals strengthen the expectation of oversupply [7] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: SC, WTI, and Brent crude oil futures prices rose on November 24 compared to November 21, while the OPEC basket price remained unchanged - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of some crude oil varieties such as Shengli, Dubai, ESPO, and Duri decreased - **Spreads**: All spreads, including SC - Brent, SC - WTI, Brent - WTI, and SC continuous - consecutive 3, showed a weakening trend - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index, S&P 500, DAX index, and US strategic reserve inventory increased, while the RMB exchange rate remained stable The US commercial crude oil inventory and Cushing inventory decreased, and the API inventory increased The US refinery's weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume increased [8] 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - **Futures Prices**: The price of FU fuel oil futures rose, while the prices of LU and NYMEX fuel oil futures decreased Some prices in IF0380, MDO, MGO, etc. remained unchanged - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices remained stable, with only slight increases in the FOB prices of marine 180CST and 380CST in Singapore and a decrease in the CIF price of Russian M100 - **Paper Prices**: The paper prices of high - sulfur 180 and 380 in Singapore's near - month contracts increased slightly - **Spreads**: Spreads such as Singapore's high - low sulfur spread, China's high - low sulfur spread, LU - Singapore FOB(0.5%S), and FU - Singapore 380CST all changed to varying degrees - **Platts and Inventory**: The Platts prices of 380CST and 180CST decreased, and the Singapore inventory decreased Some US distillate inventory data were not updated [9] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Supply - On November 24, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company will establish a new company to manage the Ghasha acid gas field, with an expected daily production of 1.8 billion standard cubic feet of natural gas and 150,000 barrels of oil and condensate; Suriname opened 60% of its offshore oil and gas exploration areas; Syria received nearly 1 million barrels of crude oil from Saudi Arabia [10][11] 3.3.2 Demand - Russia's Tuapse refinery resumed oil processing on November 21; the US Secretary of Commerce mentioned raising diesel prices with the EU; Indonesia's state - owned oil company sold 100,000 barrels of gasoline to VIVO [12] 3.3.3 Inventory - Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's board of directors will increase oil reserves by 7 billion barrels, bringing the total to 120 billion barrels [13] 3.3.4 Market Information - On November 24, Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, clarifying China's principled stance on the Taiwan issue; the US may directly dialogue with Venezuelan President Maduro; at the close, Shanghai gold, silver, and SC crude oil main contracts all rose; Oman's fiscal revenue from January - September decreased by 8% due to reduced oil revenues; Kazakhstan's national oil and gas company's revenue increased by 11% year - on - year in the first nine months; Russia's oil and gas revenues in November are expected to decline by 35% year - on - year; Indonesia is auctioning a sanctioned supertanker and its crude oil; Malaysia's palm oil futures may decline due to negative fundamentals and lower external markets [14][15] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes multiple data charts related to the oil industry, such as the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US weekly crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, etc [16][18][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overnight negotiation between the US and Ukraine on the peace agreement is still ongoing. Due to European opposition, some terms have been modified, and it is expected that the agreement will not be reached within the announced time, which partially boosts geopolitical sentiment. Another Federal Reserve governor supports further interest rate cuts, and the positive signal boosts oil prices. Overall, the oil price stabilizes at a low level. SC2601 is expected to trade in the range of 445 - 455, and long - term investors are advised to hold a wait - and - see attitude [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Russia's Tuapse port in the Black Sea has resumed oil product exports after a two - week suspension due to a drone attack, and local refineries have restarted crude oil processing; the US and Ukrainian officials are trying to narrow the differences in the plan to end the Ukraine war; Federal Reserve Governor Waller said the US job market is still weak, which may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the December 9 - 10 meeting. The overall situation is neutral [3] - **Basis**: On November 24, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $63.17 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $62.10 per barrel, with a basis of 34.43 yuan per barrel, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [3] - **Inventory**: The API crude oil inventory in the US increased by 4.448 million barrels in the week ending November 14; the EIA inventory in the week ending November 14 decreased by 3.426 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 0.603 million barrels; the inventory in the Cushing area decreased by 69,800 barrels in the week ending November 14; as of November 24, the inventory of Shanghai crude oil futures remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels, which is bullish [3] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish [3] - **Main Position**: As of October 7, the long position of WTI crude oil main contract decreased; as of November 18, the long position of Brent crude oil main contract increased, which is bullish [3] 3.2 Recent News - **Peace Talks between the US and Ukraine**: The US and Ukrainian officials are working hard to bridge the differences in the plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. They have drafted a "refined peace framework" after the Geneva talks. Although details are not disclosed, the dialogue has been cautiously welcomed by some Ukrainian allies. There are still some differences, and no meeting between the US and Ukrainian presidents is currently planned [5] - **Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut**: Federal Reserve Governor Waller said the US job market is still weak, which may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the December 9 - 10 meeting. Future actions depend on a large amount of upcoming data [5] - **Crude Oil Purchase by Indian Refinery**: India's MRPL has purchased 2 million barrels of Abu Dhabi Murban crude oil for January loading through tender, continuing to avoid Russian oil. Earlier this month, it also purchased 1 million barrels of Basra Medium crude oil for delivery from January 1 to 7 [5] 3.3 Long - and Short - Term Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Sanctions against Russia are approaching; OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year [6] - **Bearish Factors**: The situation in the Middle East has eased; institutions have a relatively consistent expectation of crude oil oversupply; there may be a meeting and negotiation between the US and Russia [6] - **Market Driver**: Short - term bearish impacts are exhausted, geopolitical bullish factors are not obvious, and there is a risk of oversupply in the medium - and long - term [6] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil increased from 62.56 to 62.72, with an increase of 0.16 and a growth rate of 0.26%; WTI crude oil increased from 58.06 to 58.84, with an increase of 0.78 and a growth rate of 1.34%; SC crude oil decreased from 453.0 to 445.6, with a decrease of 7.40 and a decline rate of 1.63%; Oman crude oil increased from 62.67 to 62.68, with an increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.02% [7] - **Spot Market**: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased from 62.50 to 64.10, with an increase of 1.60 and a growth rate of 2.56%; WTI increased from 58.06 to 58.84, with an increase of 0.78 and a growth rate of 1.34%; Oman crude oil increased from 62.98 to 63.17, with an increase of 0.19 and a growth rate of 0.30%; Shengli crude oil decreased from 58.74 to 58.23, with a decrease of 0.51 and a decline rate of 0.87%; Dubai crude oil decreased from 62.97 to 62.66, with a decrease of 0.31 and a decline rate of 0.49% [9] - **API Inventory**: The API crude oil inventory in the US increased by 4.448 million barrels in the week ending November 14 [3][10] - **EIA Inventory**: The EIA inventory in the US decreased by 3.426 million barrels in the week ending November 14, exceeding the expected decrease of 0.603 million barrels [3][13] 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of October 7, the net long position was 74,309, a decrease of 28,991 [17] - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of November 18, the net long position was 178,364, an increase of 13,497 [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Overnight, European diplomats expressed dissatisfaction with the US - led Russia - Ukraine agreement, but Zelensky didn't strongly oppose it, causing geopolitical concerns to fade and oil prices to plunge. The increase in US non - farm payrolls in September reduced the probability of a Fed rate cut in December, affecting the equity market and indirectly influencing oil prices. The implementation of sanctions on Russia starts today, which provides some support for oil prices, but in the short term, oil prices are expected to operate at a low level. SC2601 is expected to trade in the range of 448 - 458, and long - term investors should wait and see [4]. - The short - term negative impacts are exhausted, geopolitical positive factors are not obvious, and there is a risk of oversupply in the medium - to - long term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: European diplomats' stance on the Russia - Ukraine agreement, US sanctions on Russian oil companies, and US non - farm payroll data. Overall, the fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: On November 20, the spot price of Oman crude was $64.42 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $63.78 per barrel. The basis was 34.84 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is positive [4]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude inventory increased by 4.448 million barrels in the week ending November 14, while the EIA inventory decreased by 3.426 million barrels (expected to decrease by 603,000 barrels). Cushing region's inventory decreased by 69,800 barrels in the week ending November 14. As of November 20, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels, which is positive [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the average, which is negative [4]. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, the main long positions in WTI crude oil increased; as of November 11, the main long positions in Brent crude oil increased, which is positive [4]. 2. Recent News - US sanctions on Russian oil companies may cause nearly 480 million barrels of Russian crude to be stranded at sea, forcing oil tankers to find new destinations. Asian buyers are in a hurry to find alternative supplies, and the freight rate on the Middle - East route has reached a five - year high [6]. - Ukraine expressed opposition to the US proposal on the Russia - Ukraine issue, while Zelensky didn't mention the agreement but called on the US to play a leading role. Russia said it had not received official information about the peace agreement [6]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The approaching sanctions on Russia and OPEC+ suspending production increases in the first quarter of next year [7]. - **Bearish Factors**: The easing of the Middle - East situation, consistent expectations of oil oversupply among institutions, and the possibility of a new meeting and negotiation between the US and Russia [7]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement price of Brent crude dropped from $64.89 to $63.51, a decrease of 2.13%; WTI crude dropped from $60.67 to $59.25, a decrease of 2.34%; SC crude rose from 462.3 to 463.2, an increase of 0.19%; Oman crude rose from $64.51 to $64.75, an increase of 0.37% [8]. - **Spot Quotes**: The price of UK Brent Dtd rose from $63.56 to $63.64, an increase of 0.13%; WTI rose from $60.74 to $59.44, a decrease of 2.14%; Oman crude rose from $64.70 to $64.98, an increase of 0.43%; Shengli crude rose from $60.45 to $60.90, an increase of 0.74%; Dubai crude rose from $64.73 to $65.04, an increase of 0.48% [10]. - **Inventory Trends**: The API inventory increased by 4.448 million barrels in the week ending November 14, and the EIA inventory decreased by 3.426 million barrels in the same period [4]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [18]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of November 11, the net long position was 164,867, an increase of 12,836 [20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that CNOOC's stock price has dropped over 4%, reflecting broader concerns in the oil market due to an oversupply forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA) [1] - The IEA has raised its forecast for global oil surplus in the coming year, predicting a daily excess of over 4 million barrels, highlighting an increasing imbalance in the oil supply-demand equation [1] - Despite a slight upward adjustment in global oil demand growth predictions for this year and next, the IEA still expects the average daily increase to be less than 800,000 barrels, which is significantly lower than historical trends [1] Group 2 - CNOOC's performance in the first three quarters shows a revenue of 312.503 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.15%, attributed to lower oil prices impacting revenue [1] - Dongxing Securities noted that while oil and gas production continues to grow, the revenue decline is less than the drop in oil prices, indicating the company's resilience [1] - The average spot price of Brent crude for the first three quarters of 2025 was $69.914 per barrel, a year-on-year decrease of 14.6%, while the main cost per barrel of oil equivalent was $27.35, down 2.8% year-on-year [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The geopolitical events have a significant impact on short - term oil price movements. The hawkish attitude of some Fed governors dampens the optimistic expectation of a December interest rate cut, putting pressure on the market. Considering the uncertain supply - side factors, the oil price will fluctuate in the short term. The SC2512 contract is expected to trade in the range of 455 - 465, and long - term investors are advised to remain on the sidelines [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For the SC2512 contract, considering multiple factors such as fundamentals, basis, inventory, etc., it is expected to trade in the 455 - 465 range in the short term, and long - term investors should stay on the sidelines. The fundamentals include geopolitical events, Fed's attitude, and supply - side uncertainties [3]. 2. Recent News - President Trump is considering expanding military operations in Latin America, including possible actions against Venezuela, Colombia, and Mexico. He has ordered the deployment of more naval assets to the Caribbean, raising concerns about an unauthorized military expansion. He also mentioned the possibility of direct dialogue with Venezuelan President Maduro [5]. - Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson believes that the Fed should "proceed with caution" on further interest rate cuts. Fed Governor Waller thinks the current employment market situation supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the next meeting [5]. - The Novorossiysk oil terminal has resumed oil loading, but the attacks on Russian oil infrastructure by Ukraine are still under attention [5]. 3. Long - Short Focus - **Likely Positive Factors**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tensions in the Middle East are easing, and institutions generally expect an oil supply surplus. The cancellation of US - Russia talks and increased sanctions on Russia also add to the negative factors [6]. - **Market Driver**: Short - term negative impacts have subsided, and geopolitical positive factors are not obvious. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a risk of oversupply [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Spot Price and Basis**: On November 17, the spot price of Oman crude was $65.23 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $64.16 per barrel. The basis was 33.71 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory Data**: The API crude inventory in the US increased by 1.3 million barrels in the week ending November 7. The EIA inventory increased by 6.413 million barrels in the week ending November 7, exceeding the expected increase of 1.96 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory decreased by 34,600 barrels in the week ending November 7. As of November 17, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels [3]. 5. Position Data - As of September 23, the long positions of WTI crude oil's main contract increased. As of November 11, the long positions of Brent crude oil's main contract also increased [3].

Core Viewpoint - Recent geopolitical conflicts and a strong refined oil market have contributed to a rebound in international oil prices, although concerns about oversupply have led to a sharp decline in prices [1] Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - International oil prices rebounded due to multiple factors, including new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and India's cessation of Russian oil purchases, raising supply concerns [1] - The recent sanctions on Russian oil companies, including Lukoil, have directly restricted Russian oil exports, with India previously importing approximately 1.7 million barrels per day from Russia [1] - The unexpected operational challenges faced by Lukoil in Iraq, with a production capacity of around 400,000 barrels per day, have further supported oil prices in the short term [1] Group 2: Refined Oil Market Influence - The strong performance of the refined oil market, particularly in Europe and the U.S., has provided significant support for crude oil prices, with recent price movements closely mirroring those of refined products [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - Despite the recent price increases, the fundamental conditions in the crude oil market have not fundamentally improved, with rising inventory pressures and a seasonal decline in demand expected [3] - U.S. crude oil inventories increased by approximately 1.2 million barrels as of the week ending November 7, indicating weakening demand [3] - OPEC+ plans to continue increasing production in December, which will exert additional pressure on oil prices [3] Group 4: Future Projections - Significant inventory pressures are anticipated from late 2025 to early 2026, with oil prices expected to have room for decline during this period [4] - OPEC+ is projected to reach a production plateau of nearly 3 million barrels per day by December 2025, while seasonal demand lows are expected in February to March 2026 [4] - Long-term supply pressures remain, with a downward trend in oil prices expected, although short-term fluctuations may occur due to geopolitical factors and market dynamics [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil received favorable support in the shale oil cost price range after US sanctions on Russia, with a nearly 10% increase in WTI crude oil within 3 days. There is still short - term downward risk, but the risk is not large. Once the off - balance - sheet inventory risk is released, it provides a good mid - term layout opportunity. The industry may form a pattern of coordinated price support. The demand in the US is slightly lower than expected in the short term, while the demand in China and India is strong [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Why there is still short - term downward risk in oil prices after sanctions, but the risk is not large? - Global crude oil floating storage has accelerated accumulation after sanctions, and the off - balance - sheet inventory has reached nearly 1 million barrels. Most of it consists of sensitive oil types. With the discount of Russian oil, off - balance - sheet inventory has economic benefits, which may lead to a rapid transfer to on - balance - sheet and cause short - term downward pressure on oil prices. However, there is no risk of inventory accumulation in global visible inventory, so oil prices can still be effectively supported in the shale oil cost range [6]. Why the demand side is turning optimistic? - From the import shipping orders, the Asia - Pacific region (represented by China) has a strategy of buying on dips. It is expected that the imports of China and India will remain strong by the end of 2025, supporting the demand side of oil prices globally. A large part of OPEC's production increase is absorbed by China, and a considerable amount enters the strategic reserve inventory (SPR), providing mid - term bottom support for oil prices. China's SPR demand will be a mid - term highlight, and the US will maintain the strategy of replenishing SPR in the long run [10][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [7] Core Views - OPEC+ has announced a pause in production increases starting January 2026, aiming to balance oil prices amid declining global demand and rising inventories [2][3] - Oil prices have been under pressure due to concerns over demand, with Brent and WTI prices reported at $63.70 and $59.84 per barrel, respectively, reflecting declines of 1.4% and 1.7% from the previous week [1][11] - The IEA forecasts a modest increase in global oil demand of 700,000 barrels per day in 2026, while supply is expected to grow by 2.4 million barrels per day, leading to a potential oversupply situation [3][16] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly sanctions against Russia, are likely to provide a risk premium that supports oil prices [3][18] - The "Big Three" oil companies in China (PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC) are expected to enhance their production and cost management strategies, showcasing resilience during price downturns [4][19] Summary by Sections OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause further increases from January to March 2026, reflecting a strategy to stabilize oil prices amid low demand expectations [2][11] Oil Supply and Demand Outlook - The IEA has revised down its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 700,000 barrels per day, indicating a slowdown in consumption growth due to macroeconomic conditions and electrification trends [16][14] - The report highlights a significant increase in oil inventories, with a notable rise in floating storage, suggesting a potential oversupply in the market [16][14] Geopolitical Factors - Recent escalations in sanctions against Russia, including the U.S. Treasury's blacklisting of major Russian oil companies, are expected to tighten the oil market and support prices [3][18] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on the "Big Three" oil companies and their associated oil service firms, as well as leading players in the refining and chemical sectors, anticipating long-term growth despite current market volatility [5][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The view that oil prices will remain weak at the end of the fourth quarter remains unchanged. If shale oil production is restricted, combined with the peak - season demand in the second quarter of next year and the support of strategic reserves from various countries, long - term positions should be established at low prices based on the shale oil break - even line at the end of the fourth quarter [15][16]. - The PADD5 refining area in the United States has started to transport diesel to Europe, indicating that the arbitrage window has opened, and the diesel crack spread can be shorted at the top [15][16]. - Due to the butterfly effect of the Kuwaiti refinery maintenance, there is a short - to - medium - term shortage of low - sulfur oil in the Middle East. The window to widen the low - high sulfur price spread has opened, and the profit - taking anchor is when Fujairah stops accepting low - sulfur oil [15][16]. - Overall, the upside space for oil prices in the second half of the year is limited. As OPEC's gradual production increase is implemented, the wide - range oscillation center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly. Since shale oil will still play a supporting role, it is difficult to have a continuous trend market, and grasping the driving rhythm will be more important [21]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment & Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: This week, crude oil rebounded sharply due to geopolitical news, then partially gave back the geopolitical premium, and found support near the shale oil cost. When oil prices fell, the US indicated it was a good time to buy strategic reserves at low prices [15]. - **Supply - Demand Changes**: US refinery demand has stabilized and rebounded. Shale oil did not significantly cut production as before when oil prices fell. At the end of the month, EIA data showed a slight increase in US shale oil production, and refinery demand was lower than expected. OPEC exports began to increase, but most were absorbed by China, so no obvious inventory was seen in the market. In Europe, the overall refined oil inventory continued to decline at a low level, and crude oil inventory increased. European refinery demand is about to enter the peak season, and combined with frequent attacks on Russian refineries, the diesel crack spread remained high [15]. - **Macro - Political Situation**: At the macro level, Fed officials' speeches generally conveyed a hawkish signal. Politically, the US imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, which affected the shipping routes of Lukoil. The overall macro - liquidity expectation is tight [15]. - **Short - Term Impact Factors**: Factors such as US SPR procurement, sanctions on Russian oil companies, macro - economic data, and supply - demand situations in non - OPEC and OPEC regions have different impacts on oil prices, with a mixed outlook in the short term [16]. - **Medium - Term Impact Factors**: Global supply - demand factors in different regions (China, the US, and the Middle East) and macro - political factors (macro and geopolitical) are expected to have a neutral - to - bearish impact on oil prices in the medium term, and the overall oil price trend is expected to be oscillatory and slightly bearish [21]. 3.2 Macro & Geopolitical - **Macro Short - Term High - Frequency Indicators**: Various indicators such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI, the Citi G10 economic surprise index, the US 10 - year inflation expectation, and the US long - short - term spread are presented, showing the relationship between macro - economic indicators and WTI oil prices [40][41]. - **Macro Medium - Term Forecast Indicators**: Eurozone and US investment confidence indices, PMI, GDP growth rate forecasts, and their relationships with oil consumption growth rates are shown, providing a medium - term perspective on the macro - economic impact on oil prices [47][48]. - **Geopolitical Indicators**: The Middle East geopolitical risk index and the high - frequency export statistics of sensitive oil - producing countries (Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and Russia) are presented, showing the relationship between geopolitical factors and WTI oil prices [50][51]. 3.3 Oil Product Spreads - **Forward Curve**: The WTI crude oil forward curve, the near - far structure of various crude oils, and the WTI crude oil M1/M4 monthly spread and M1 price are presented, reflecting the market's expectations for future oil prices [54][55]. - **Inter - regional Spreads**: Spreads such as Brent/WTI, Brent/Dubai, INE/WTI, and MRBN/WTI are presented, showing price differences between different regions [57][60]. - **Product Spreads**: The LGO diesel forward curve, the near - far structure of refined oil products, and spreads such as RB/HO and LGO/RB are presented, showing price differences between different oil products [64][65]. - **Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, Europe, and the US are presented, reflecting the profitability of refineries [72][73]. 3.4 Crude Oil Supply - **Supply: OPEC & OPEC+**: A detailed record of OPEC's historical meeting results shows the group's production - adjustment plans over the years, including production cuts, production increases, and extensions of production - adjustment measures [84][85]. - **OPEC & OPEC+ Situation Summary**: Data on OPEC's 9 - country crude oil production and quotas, OPEC's idle crude oil production capacity, OPEC & OPEC+'s unplanned parking production capacity, and OPEC+'s 19 - country crude oil production and quotas are presented, providing an overview of the supply situation of OPEC and OPEC+ [86][87]. - **OPEC 12 - Country Supply (Including Dynamic Forecasts)**: Production and export volume data and dynamic forecasts of individual OPEC member countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Kuwait are presented, showing the supply situation of each member country [93][94].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of the strong US dollar and Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations on gold prices, with recent fluctuations in the gold market attributed to these factors [1][4][6] - The recent announcement from China regarding the termination of VAT exemptions for retailers selling gold from the Shanghai Gold Exchange is expected to significantly reduce physical demand for gold in the world's largest consumer market [3] - The ongoing US government shutdown, which has reached a historic duration, is causing economic risks and uncertainties, leading to a reliance on private sector data for economic insights [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points has led to a divergence of opinions among its officials, indicating a complex outlook for future monetary policy [4][6] - The increase in US crude oil inventories reported by API has raised concerns about supply overhang, contributing to downward pressure on oil prices despite geopolitical risks [8] - OPEC and its partners have announced a pause in their production increase plans starting in Q1 2026, amid expectations of seasonal demand slowdown, which may further influence oil market dynamics [7][8] Group 3 - The strategic positioning of the company in the Hong Kong market, leveraging its unique advantages to enhance the global competitiveness of the Chinese gold market, is emphasized [10] - The company aims to continue fostering connections between domestic and international markets, enhancing its role as a reliable financial service platform for investors [10]