Report Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - As the peak season enters the second half, with OPEC continuing to increase production, the oil price center is expected to move down further. In July, the main driver of crude oil was the peak - season market. The continuous inventory reduction of crude oil and refined oil in Europe and the United States supported the oil price to some extent. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's summer crude oil power generation consumed part of the increased production. Subsequently, the support from the demand side for oil prices will gradually decline, and the supply - side pressure will gradually increase. There is still room for oil prices to compress. The key price to focus on is $60, which is close to the break - even point of new US shale oil wells. The US crude oil production will be a major variable on the supply side. The focus ranges are WTI [60, 70] for the outer market and SC [450, 500] for the inner market [3][97]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - The core driver of the crude oil market was the unexpected peak - season demand for diesel in Europe and the United States [10]. 2. Macroeconomics - The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with market expectations, which was the fifth consecutive decision to keep the rate unchanged. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised China's 2025 growth rate by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% compared with the April WEO forecast, due to stronger - than - expected economic activity in China in the first half of 2025 and much lower Sino - US actual tariffs than expected in April [3]. - On July 29, the IMF released the latest World Economic Outlook Report, raising the 2025 global economic growth forecast by 0.2% to 3%, mainly because China's economic growth exceeded expectations and the Sino - US tariff level was lower than expected [21]. 3. Supply, Demand, and Inventory Supply - In June 2025, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 219,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 2,723.5 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's production rose by 173,000 barrels per day to 935,600 barrels per day; Iraq's by 11,000 barrels per day to 394,300 barrels per day; and the UAE's by 83,000 barrels per day to 305,300 barrels per day. Kuwait's production increased by 12,000 barrels per day to 243,600 barrels per day, while Iran's decreased by 62,000 barrels per day to 324,100 barrels per day, and Venezuela's rose by 2,000 barrels per day to 91,000 barrels per day [4][34][35]. - As of the week ending July 25, US crude oil production was 1,331 million barrels per day, up 41,000 barrels per day month - on - month, and the number of US oil rigs was 415, down 7 month - on - month [38]. - As of the week ending July 25, the US net crude oil imports increased. Demand - In July 2025, the EIA, OPEC, and IEA monthly reports estimated the 2025 global crude oil demand at 10,354 million barrels per day, 10,513 million barrels per day, and 10,374 million barrels per day respectively, with growth rates of 80,000 barrels per day, 129,000 barrels per day, and 70,000 barrels per day compared with 2024. The EIA and OPEC July 2025 reports estimated the 2026 global crude oil demand at 10,459 million barrels per day and 10,642 million barrels per day respectively, with growth rates of 105,000 barrels per day and 128,000 barrels per day compared with 2025 [4][42][44]. - As of the week ending July 25, the domestic crude oil processing volume was 17.3731 million tons, down 109,000 tons month - on - month. In June, the monthly crude oil imports were 49.89 million tons, up 7.40% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 279.82 million tons, up 1.57% year - on - year. The domestic refinery capacity utilization rate was 71.55%, the main refinery capacity utilization rate was 81.21%, and the Shandong local refinery capacity utilization rate was 48.16% [54][58]. Inventory - As of the week ending July 25, US commercial crude oil inventory was 426.69 million barrels, up 7.7 million barrels; strategic crude oil inventory was 402.74 million barrels, up 240,000 barrels. US gasoline inventory was 228.41 million barrels, down 2.72 million barrels; and distillate fuel oil inventory was 113.54 million barrels, up 3.64 million barrels [62][64]. - According to Longzhong Information statistics, as of the week ending July 25, China's port inventory was 28.266 million tons, up 187,000 tons, and Shandong refinery in - plant inventory was 2.496 million tons, up 13,000 tons [67]. 4. Spreads and Positions Spreads - WTI's inter - month spreads increased. As of July 30, WTI M1 - M2 was $1.07 per barrel, and M1 - M6 was $3.50 per barrel. Recently, Trump's pressure on Russia over the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to a short - term strengthening of oil prices [80]. - The inter - month spreads of the domestic market also increased. - As of July 30, the US gasoline crack spread was $22.48 per barrel, the diesel crack spread was $31.24 per barrel, the 5:3:2 crude oil crack spread was $25.99 per barrel, and the 3:2:1 crack spread was $25.40 per barrel. The domestic refined oil crack spread remained stable [84]. Positions - Information on WTI and Brent positions was provided, but no specific data summary was given. - The SC warehouse receipt volume was at a low level, while the SC total position increased. 5. Summary - The peak season for crude oil is in the second half. As OPEC continues to expand production, the oil price center is expected to move down. In July, the peak - season market, continuous inventory reduction of crude oil and refined oil in Europe and the United States, and Saudi Arabia's summer power - generation consumption of part of the increased production supported the oil price. Subsequently, the demand - side support for oil prices will gradually decline, and the supply - side pressure will increase, with room for oil price compression. The key price to watch is $60, and the US crude oil production is a major supply - side variable. The recommended trading ranges are WTI [60, 70] for the outer market and SC [450, 500] for the inner market [97]. - The report also provided various trading strategies, including futures, options, and hedging strategies, with different recommended intensities [97].

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint of the Report Crude oil prices are likely to remain range - bound and weak in the short term. The ongoing game between OPEC+ production cuts and increased US exports, potential supply increments from oil - producing countries like Iraq, weakening refinery demand, and rising refined product inventories all contribute to this outlook. Geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, but factors such as slow crude oil de - stocking, increasing refined product pressure, and expected tightening of macro - liquidity limit the upside potential of oil prices [7][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On July 22, 2025, crude oil futures prices generally weakened. The SC main contract fell 1.56% to 504.3 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 8 yuan/barrel from the previous day. WTI and Brent dropped 0.5% and 0.61% respectively, closing at 65.45 dollars/barrel and 68.67 dollars/barrel. The spreads of SC relative to Brent and WTI narrowed significantly, and the SC inter - term spread (continuous - consecutive 3) dropped 47.4% to 20.3 yuan/barrel, indicating eased near - end supply - demand pressure [2]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: On July 22, the trading volumes of WTI and Brent decreased by 26.8% and 30.4% respectively, and open interest also decreased, suggesting reduced market activity and partial exit of short - sellers. The single - day increase of 26,840 tons in fuel oil futures warehouse receipts indicates high pressure on bonded delivery resources, possibly related to increased refinery operations [3]. 2. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: Geopolitical supply uncertainties are increasing. Mexico plans to issue bonds worth billions of dollars to support its national oil company, and Iraq and Turkey are negotiating an energy agreement. The US has become a net exporter of Nigerian crude oil. However, OPEC+ maintaining the production - cut framework still restricts supply in the short term [4]. - **Demand Side**: Refinery demand has weakened marginally. US API data shows a 328,000 - barrel - per - day drop in refinery crude input in the week ending July 18. There is a structural differentiation in refined product consumption, with gasoline inventories decreasing by 1.228 million barrels and refined oil inventories increasing by 3.48 million barrels. The shutdown of the UK's Lindsey refinery further suppresses regional demand. The expected increase in global LNG supply may replace some fuel oil demand, but the natural gas cooperation between China and Algeria has limited substitution effect on crude oil [5]. - **Inventory Side**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 577,000 barrels (expected - 646,000 barrels), while Cushing inventories increased by 314,000 barrels, showing pressure at the delivery location. Refined product inventories are structurally differentiated, with unexpected refined oil inventory build - up and a narrowing decline in heating oil inventories, indicating weak terminal consumption momentum. The sharp increase in fuel oil warehouse receipts further highlights the implicit inventory pressure in the Asian market [6]. 3. Price Trend Judgment Crude oil prices are likely to remain range - bound and weak in the short term. The game between OPEC+ production cuts and US export growth continues, and potential supply increments from oil - producing countries like Iraq depend on the progress of agreements. On the demand side, the decline in refinery input and the structural build - up of refined product inventories indicate weakened support during the seasonal peak season. Geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, but factors such as slow crude oil de - stocking, rising refined product pressure, and expected tightening of macro - liquidity limit the upside potential of oil prices [7][8]. 4. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On July 22, 2025, SC, WTI, and Brent futures prices all declined. The spreads of SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI narrowed, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread dropped significantly. The US dollar index decreased, while the S&P 500 increased slightly. The DAX index decreased, and the RMB exchange rate remained stable. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, while Cushing inventories increased. The US strategic reserve inventory decreased slightly, and API inventories increased. The US refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume decreased [9]. - **Fuel Oil**: On July 22, 2025, the prices of some fuel oil futures and spot products decreased. The spreads of Singapore high - low sulfur and China high - low sulfur narrowed. Platts prices of some fuel oil products changed slightly, and there were changes in US distillate inventories [10]. 5. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: On July 23, Mexico took measures to strengthen the financial situation of its national oil company, and a Kuwaiti company made a final investment decision on a natural gas exploration project in Egypt. The US became a net exporter of Nigerian crude oil. On July 22, Mexico planned to issue bonds worth 7 - 10 billion dollars to support its national oil company. The IEA predicted a significant increase in global LNG supply next year. Zhongman Petroleum signed a natural gas exploration and development contract in Algeria. Iraq was considering renewing an energy agreement with Turkey, and Nigeria's Q1 oil production was 1.6 million barrels per day [11][12]. - **Demand**: As of July 21, the average price of domestic 92 gasoline increased by 48 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month [14]. - **Inventory**: In the week ending July 18, US API data showed changes in crude oil input, refined product imports, and various inventory levels, including significant increases in refined oil inventories and decreases in gasoline inventories. The fuel oil futures warehouse receipts increased by 26,840 tons [15]. - **Market Information**: As of July 23, the prices of some crude oil futures decreased. The trading volumes and open interest of WTI and Brent crude oil futures decreased, while those of natural gas futures changed. The market was in a state of multi - day oscillation, and concerns about summer demand and inventory changes affected price trends [16][17]. 6. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts such as WTI and Brent first - line contract prices and spreads, SC and WTI spreads, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, and various inventory and operating rate charts, which help to visually present the market situation [18][20][22].

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined slightly, and global oil inventories increased slightly. The EU imposed the 18th round of sanctions on Russia, reducing the price cap on Russian oil. Iran may hold nuclear talks with major European powers next week, and whether to resume nuclear talks with the US depends on the US attitude. The supply of Kurdish oil fields was affected by attacks, with about 200,000 barrels per day of production at risk of interruption. Globally, refinery profits strengthened week - on - week, and the product side remained firm. In China, refinery operations were volatile, and after the increase in June, refinery inventories of gasoline and diesel increased significantly, with refinery profits weakening week - on - week, leaving limited room to boost operations further. In the peak season of actual crude oil demand, the escalation of sanctions against Russia and the marginal tightening of Iranian crude oil supply supported the crude oil monthly structure, but the peak - season factors were relatively fully realized, and the recent monthly spreads were in a volatile pattern. The absolute price faces downward pressure in the medium term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the contradiction between non - OPEC production and the near - term diesel inventory [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Price Data - From July 15 to July 21, 2025, WTI crude oil prices decreased by $0.14, Brent by $0.07, and Dubai by $0.15. The BRENT 1 - 2 month spread decreased by $0.05, and the WTI - BRENT spread decreased by $0.07. Other price differentials also showed various changes [2]. - For domestic and other related products, SC decreased by 19.70, the domestic gasoline - BRT spread increased by 3.00, and the Japanese naphtha - BRT spread decreased by 2.98, etc. [2] 2. Daily News - Traders are evaluating the real impact of the EU's latest sanctions on Russian oil supply, and international oil prices have limited fluctuations. The EU passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia last Friday, including India's Nayara Energy. The Kremlin said it is immune to Western sanctions. Trump threatened to impose additional sanctions on Russian oil buyers if a peace agreement is not reached within 50 days. The market doubts the effectiveness of the sanctions [2]. - Trump is seeking to impose a 15 - 20% minimum tariff on all EU goods [3]. - The EU sanctioned an Iranian oil tycoon for assisting Russian oil trade. Iran's foreign minister said Iran is willing to talk with the US but not directly for now [3]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, in the week of July 11, US crude oil exports increased by 761,000 barrels per day to 3.518 million barrels per day, and domestic crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels to 13.375 million barrels per day. The commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a decrease of 0.91%. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, a decrease of 0.07%. The import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves was 6.379 million barrels per day, an increase of 366,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week [3][15]. - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China decreased by 0.26%, and that of Shandong local refineries increased slightly by 1.17%. The output of gasoline decreased while that of diesel increased, the gasoline inventory increased while the diesel inventory decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries and local refineries declined week - on - week [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The peak of the northern hemisphere's consumption season can still support the market to some extent, resisting the pressure of increased supply. Coupled with many short - term supply disturbances in the market, oil prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger. However, the consumption season has reached its peak, and attention should be paid to the subsequent performance of US gasoline demand. After that, the supply pressure will gradually increase, and the upside space is limited [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Views - **Last week's view**: The northern hemisphere's consumption season can support the market to resist supply pressure, but the upside space is limited as the consumption season is at its peak [7]. - **This week's trend analysis**: At the beginning of the week, potential Russian supply disturbances briefly strengthened oil prices, but Trump's statement dispelled short - term risks, and prices gave back previous gains. Despite poor US gasoline data, traditional consumption seasons and Iraqi supply disturbances kept weekly oil prices in a relatively strong oscillation [7]. - **Analysis of fundamentals**: The month - spread is firm, diesel leads the crack spread, and US gasoline demand data is cold. Major institutions' monthly reports maintain the expectation of increased inventory but have differences on future demand trends. There are multiple supply disturbances such as EU sanctions on Russia, Trump promoting a Russian agreement, and damaged production in the Iraqi Kurdish region [7]. 2. Weekly Highlights - **Near - month spreads**: After the disturbance of the Middle - East conflict ended, the month - spreads remained firm, indicating tight physical supply and demand. The month - spread of Middle - East Oman crude was stronger and affected the internal SC month - spread [9][11]. - **Diesel crack**: Globally, the crack spread maintained an oscillating or strengthening trend. Diesel crack led the market, and the 211 crack spread (with 1/2 diesel) was stronger than the 321 crack spread (with 1/3 diesel) in all regional markets, suggesting the continuation of strong market conditions [14]. - **US gasoline demand**: As of July 11, US crude inventories decreased unexpectedly, but refined product inventories increased unexpectedly. The refinery operating rate decreased slightly to 93.9%. US weekly crude exports contributed to the inventory decline. Gasoline demand after four - week smoothing decreased by more than 2 million barrels per day, but previous data were good, and further tracking is needed [16]. - **Global diesel inventory**: Diesel inventories in major consumer countries like the US and China are at multi - year lows. The long - term production contraction of Saudi Arabia and Russia has led to global crude oil lightening and supported diesel crack spreads [19]. - **Main energy institutions' July reports**: IEA, OPEC, and EIA's July reports showed no significant adjustment to demand, but IEA and EIA significantly increased supply expectations. There are differences in their expectations for the future. EIA's balance sheet shows relative balance in the third quarter and inventory surpluses in the following quarters [20]. - **OPEC+ balance sheet**: OPEC's July report predicts an increase in global oil demand and non - OPEC+ supply in 2025 and 2026. To achieve supply - demand balance, OPEC+ needs to increase crude oil supply by 400,000 barrels per day each year. It maintains the global economic growth forecast [22]. - **OPEC+ 8 - country production**: Excluding Kazakhstan, the other 7 OPEC+ countries well - executed production plans in June. Saudi Arabia may use a new calculation standard to report production, which is seen as evidence that OPEC+ led by Saudi Arabia tends to compete for market share. There are rumors of a potential 548,000 - barrel - per - day production increase in August [25]. - **Supply disturbances**: EU sanctions on Russia have limited direct impact on Russian oil. Trump's threat of tariffs poses a risk after 50 days. Drone attacks in the Iraqi Kurdish region reduced oil production by 140,000 - 150,000 barrels per day, which can boost oil prices but has limited upside potential [27]. - **North American hurricane forecast**: According to NOAA, there is a 60% chance of above - average hurricane activity this year, which is relatively calmer than last year. Currently, there are no hurricanes in the US Gulf, and the probability of cyclone formation in the next 7 days is less than 40%, but the predicted location is close to platforms and refineries [29]. 3. Price, Spread, and Crack - **Crude oil futures and spot trends**: The report presents various charts of crude oil futures and spot prices, including different regions and benchmarks [32]. - **Brent and WTI crude oil positions**: Charts show the net long positions of different participants in Brent and WTI futures and options [34][37]. - **Crude oil futures structure**: Displays the futures structure of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC crude oil [40]. - **Crude oil month - spread**: Presents the month - spread trends of different crude oils over time [43]. - **Cross - market futures and spot spreads**: Analyzes cross - market futures and spot spreads of different crude oils [46][49]. - **Saudi OSP**: Saudi Arabia has adjusted the official selling prices of different grades of crude oil to different regions in August compared to July [56]. - **Refined product prices and crack spreads**: Covers the prices and crack spreads of refined products in futures and spot markets in different regions [61][63][66][69]. 4. Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - **Global supply**: Includes the supply of non - OPEC, OPEC, and the total global crude oil supply, as well as the supply of major non - OPEC and OPEC countries [82][85][88]. - **Global demand**: Covers the demand of OECD, non - OECD, and the total global crude oil demand, as well as the demand of major countries and regions [106]. - **Inventory**: Analyzes inventories in different regions such as the US, OECD, Europe, Japan, ARA, Singapore, and China [115][118][120]. - **EIA balance sheet**: The EIA balance sheet shows that the global crude oil market will have a supply surplus in 2025 and 2026 [136]. - **OPEC balance sheet**: OPEC's balance sheet predicts global oil demand and non - OPEC+ supply in 2025 and 2026, and calculates the required OPEC+ crude oil supply for balance [140][142][145]. - **OECD inventory, consumption days, and floating storage**: Provides data on OECD's land - based commercial inventory, strategic petroleum reserve, consumption days, and floating storage [147]. 5. EIA Weekly Report and Others - **EIA weekly report main data**: Presents data on US crude oil production, commercial crude oil inventory, refinery operating rate, and total crude - chain inventory [151]. - **Supply data**: Includes the production of crude oil, gasoline, distillates, and jet fuel [154].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report indicates that the crude oil market will continue its oscillating pattern in the short - term, with increasing upward pressure. Supply - side factors such as the环比 growth of OPEC+ output and the seasonal restart of US refineries ease the risk of geopolitical supply disruptions. However, demand - side issues like gasoline inventory build - up and reduced imports from India limit the upside potential of prices. The accumulation of inventory strengthens the expectation of a marginal weakening in supply - demand balance. If the inventory draw during the US summer driving season falls short of expectations, it may trigger a further price correction [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On July 15, 2025, the price of the SC main contract closed at 518.2 yuan/barrel, down 9.3 yuan/barrel (-1.76%) from the previous trading day. WTI and Brent prices remained stable at 66.83 dollars/barrel and 69.13 dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads weakened by 1.34 dollars, and the SC continuous - contango 3 spread dropped from 26.0 yuan/barrel to 24.3 yuan/barrel [2]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: According to the OPEC monthly report on July 15, OPEC's crude oil production in June increased by 220,000 barrels per day to 2,723.5 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE increasing production and Iran and Libya reducing output. Iraq plans to increase the output of the Himreen oilfield to 60,000 barrels per day. US API data on July 16 showed an increase in crude oil imports and refinery throughput [3]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: OPEC maintains the 2025 demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day. The US gasoline inventory unexpectedly increased by 1.931 million barrels in the week ending July 11, and India's crude oil imports in June decreased, indicating weaker - than - expected terminal consumption [4]. - **Inventory - side Analysis**: US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 839,000 barrels, and the OECD inventory in May increased by 34.5 million barrels to 2.77 billion barrels, showing overall inventory pressure. The heating oil inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels, suggesting a structural differentiation in energy consumption [5]. - **Price Trend Judgment**: In the short - term, the market will remain range - bound with increasing upward pressure. Supply - side growth and refinery restarts ease supply risks, but demand - side issues and inventory build - up limit price increases. If the US summer driving season fails to reduce inventory as expected, prices may correct further [6]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On July 15, 2025, SC, WTI, and Brent futures prices decreased, while the OPEC basket price remained unchanged. The spreads of SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and SC continuous - contango 3 all decreased. The US dollar index increased, and the S&P 500 and DAX indices decreased. US commercial crude oil, Cushing, and strategic reserve inventories all increased, and the US refinery weekly operating rate decreased slightly [8]. - **Fuel Oil**: On July 15, 2025, most fuel oil futures and spot prices showed changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. The Singapore and US distillate inventories also had corresponding changes, and the spreads between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils in Singapore and China also showed different trends [9]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: On July 16, US API data showed an increase in crude oil imports and refinery throughput. According to the OPEC monthly report on July 15, the production of many OPEC member countries changed in June, with the overall OPEC production increasing by 220,000 barrels per day. Iraq plans to increase the output of the Himreen oilfield to 60,000 barrels per day [10][11]. - **Demand**: The OPEC monthly report expects global crude oil demand to be 106.36 million barrels per day in 2025 and 107.52 million barrels per day in 2026, and maintains the 2025 and 2026 demand growth forecasts at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.28 million barrels per day respectively [12]. - **Inventory**: In the week ending July 11, US API heating oil inventory decreased, gasoline inventory increased unexpectedly, and crude oil inventory increased. The OECD inventory in May increased by 34.5 million barrels to 2.77 billion barrels. The warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil, fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures remained unchanged [13]. - **Market Information**: The crude oil futures price decreased, and the market's reaction to the US threat of sanctions on Russia was calm. The fuel oil main contract price dropped. The market is concerned about possible US restrictions on European oil, and after the implementation of restrictions, the crude oil price may correct but will still maintain an oscillating pattern [14]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US and global oil rig numbers, US refinery operating rates and throughput, and various inventory data, etc., to visually display the changes in the industrial chain data [15][17][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - EIA further strengthened the degree of supply surplus in each quarter of this year and next year in its July report. Supply is expected to increase significantly, while demand changes little, leading to a continuous downward pressure on oil prices. Uncertainties mainly come from geopolitical situations and OPEC+ production compliance [9]. - OPEC's July report shows that global oil demand is expected to continue to grow in 2025 and 2026. Non-OECD countries are the main drivers of demand growth. Non-OPEC+ supply is also expected to increase, and OPEC+ needs to adjust production to achieve supply - demand balance [47][48]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EIA 3.1.1 EIA Balance Sheet - EIA predicts that the global crude oil supply will exceed demand in each quarter of 2025 and 2026. The supply surplus in Q4 2025, Q1 2026, and Q2 2026 is the most severe, reaching 1.07 million, 1.76 million, and 1.07 million barrels per day respectively. The average annual supply surplus in 2025 and 2026 will increase from 820,000 barrels per day and 550,000 barrels per day to 1.06 million barrels per day and 1.13 million barrels per day respectively [9]. 3.1.2 Brent Oil Price Forecast - EIA expects the average Brent crude oil price in 2025 to be $69 per barrel (previously $66), and to further drop to $58 per barrel in 2026 (previously $59). Although the conflict brings geopolitical risk premiums, increasing inventory will put continuous downward pressure on oil prices [10]. 3.1.3 Global Liquid Fuel Consumption Forecast - EIA expects global liquid fuel consumption to increase by 800,000 barrels per day in 2025 (previously 790,000 barrels per day) and 1.06 million barrels per day in 2026 (previously 1.06 million barrels per day). Non-OECD Asia is the main driver of demand growth, with India and China contributing significant growth [13]. 3.1.4 Global Oil Production Forecast - EIA expects OPEC+ production plans and non-OPEC+ supply growth to drive strong global production growth. Non-OPEC+ will lead the growth in 2025, with an increase of about 1.3 million barrels per day (previously 1.13 million barrels per day), and the growth rate will slow down to 540,000 barrels per day in 2026 (previously 230,000 barrels per day) [14]. 3.1.5 EIA Balance Sheet Changes - EIA has comprehensively raised the supply estimates for all quarters, while the demand estimates remain almost unchanged, further intensifying the supply surplus. The expected US production is in a downward cycle, reflecting the impact of falling oil prices on shale oil producers [21]. 3.1.6 Crude Oil Total Inventory - EIA expects OECD commercial crude oil inventory supply days to increase under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand. It is expected that the average supply days will be 61 days in the first half of 2025, increase to 62 days in the second half, and reach 66 days by the end of 2026 [14]. 3.2 OPEC 3.2.1 World Oil Demand Forecast - OPEC's July report predicts that global oil demand in 2025 will be 105.13 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.29 million barrels per day. Non-OECD demand growth will increase to 1.16 million barrels per day, while OECD demand growth will decrease to 140,000 barrels per day. In 2026, global oil demand is expected to be 106.42 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million barrels per day [47][48]. 3.2.2 Non-OPEC+ Oil Supply Forecast - OPEC's July report predicts that non-OPEC+ crude oil supply in 2025 will be 54.01 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 810,000 barrels per day. In 2026, it will be 54.74 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 730,000 barrels per day. The growth mainly comes from the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina [50][51]. 3.2.3 OPEC+ Production and Compliance - OPEC+ production in June was 41.559 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 349,000 barrels per day. Except for Kazakhstan, the other 7 countries in the OPEC+ 8 - country production cut plan generally well implemented the plan in June [52][54]. 3.2.4 OPEC+ Balance Sheet - OPEC's July report predicts that global demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026. Non-OPEC+ and OPEC+ NGLs supply will increase by 900,000 barrels per day. To achieve supply - demand balance within the year, OPEC+ crude oil supply needs to increase by 400,000 barrels per day [57]. 3.2.5 OECD Inventory, Consumption Days, and Floating Storage - The report provides detailed data on OECD inventory, consumption days, and floating storage from 2022 to Q1 2025, showing the changes in OECD oil inventory and consumption patterns [58].

1. Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - For crude oil, the short - term supply is in a tight balance due to reduced exports from Russia and post - war Iran, but political expectations are extremely bearish. Given the current neutral - high valuation, it's advisable to wait patiently for short - selling opportunities [3]. - For methanol, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. With high spot valuation and limited upside space in the off - season, it's recommended to wait and see [5]. - For urea, the domestic supply - demand situation is acceptable, with price support at the bottom but limited upside due to high supply. It's more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [7]. - For rubber, it's expected to be easier to rise than fall in the second half of the year. Adopt a long - term bullish strategy, and short - term trading can be neutral - bullish, also pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [13]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and demand is weak. Although it may follow the rebound in the black building materials sector in the short term, it will still face pressure later [15]. - For styrene, the BZN spread may repair, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side [17][18]. - For polyethylene, the price is likely to remain volatile as the short - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction [20]. - For polypropylene, the price is expected to be bearish in July under the background of weak supply and demand in the off - season [21]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, it is expected to continue to destock in the third quarter. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [23]. - For PTA, there is pressure on processing fees due to expected continuous inventory accumulation, but pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [24]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation is weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [25]. 3. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of Friday, WTI crude futures rose $1.88 (2.81%) to $68.75; Brent crude futures rose $1.75 (2.54%) to $70.63; INE crude futures fell 8.60 yuan (1.65%) to 513.9 yuan [2]. - **Data**: European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 0.38 million barrels (4.11%) to 9.53 million barrels; diesel inventory decreased by 0.57 million barrels (4.00%) to 13.77 million barrels; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels (6.04%) to 6.47 million barrels; naphtha inventory increased by 0.71 million barrels (13.60%) to 5.94 million barrels; aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.17 million barrels (2.84%) to 5.93 million barrels; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.71 million barrels (1.73%) to 41.63 million barrels [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 11, the 09 contract fell 28 yuan/ton to 2370 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 22 yuan/ton with a basis of +2 [5]. - **Supply - Demand**: Upstream maintenance increased, and the operating rate declined from a high level. Overseas device operation returned to medium - high levels, and the market's reaction to overseas supply disruptions ended. Port olefin demand decreased, and traditional demand was in the off - season [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 11, the 09 contract fell 4 yuan/ton to 1773 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged with a basis of +57 [7]. - **Supply - Demand**: Domestic production increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.9 tons. The overall corporate profit was at a medium - low level. The demand from compound fertilizer production picked up, and export containerization continued [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Due to the bullish expectation of the real estate market, most industrial products rose, and NR and RU rose significantly [10]. - **Supply - Demand**: Bulls expect production cuts in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, and the price usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears believe that the macro - expectation has worsened, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected. As of July 10, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.54%, up 0.81 percentage points from last week and 5.59 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.55%, up 2.51 percentage points from last week and down 6.36 percentage points from the same period last year. As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, up 0.7 tons (0.6%) [11][12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 60 yuan to 4980 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4860 yuan/ton, the basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 112 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply - Demand**: The overall operating rate was 77%, down 0.5%. The downstream operating rate was 41.1%, down 1.8%. Factory inventory was 38.2 tons (- 0.5 tons), and social inventory was 62.4 tons (+ 3.2 tons). There is an expectation of new device production in the short term, and export is expected to weaken [15]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price rose, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread was at a low level in the same period, with large upward repair space [17]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of pure benzene increased, the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, and the operating rate of styrene continued to rise. The port inventory increased, and the demand of three S products decreased seasonally [17][18]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, the spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation had limited downward space [20]. - **Supply - Demand**: Trade - related inventory was at a high - level shock, and the demand for agricultural film orders was at a low - level shock. There was no new production capacity plan in July [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, the spot price remained unchanged, and the basis strengthened [21]. - **Supply - Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries rebounded, and the supply of propylene was expected to increase. The downstream operating rate declined seasonally, and the price was expected to be bearish in July [21]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 88 yuan to 6694 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 15 dollars to 837 dollars [23]. - **Supply - Demand**: The Chinese operating rate was 81.3%, up 0.3%, and the Asian operating rate was 73.6%, down 0.5%. After the end of the maintenance season, it is expected to continue to destock in the third quarter due to new PTA device production [23]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 42 yuan to 4700 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 25 yuan to 4710 yuan [24]. - **Supply - Demand**: The operating rate was 79.7%, up 1.5%. The downstream operating rate was 88.8%, down 1.4%. In July, there was less maintenance and new device production, and the inventory was expected to accumulate continuously [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 20 yuan to 4305 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4384 yuan [25]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - side operating rate was 68.1%, up 1.5%. The downstream operating rate was 88.8%, down 1.4%. The port inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 58 tons. The fundamental situation was weak, and the inventory reduction was expected to slow down [25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rebound in oil prices driven by seasonal demand, geopolitical tensions, and OPEC+ production strategies, highlighting the complex dynamics of the global oil market [3][4][6]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - The current oil price rebound is attributed to the peak summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices reported at $70.63 and $68.75 per barrel, reflecting increases of 3.1% and 3.4% respectively from the previous week [3]. - OPEC+ has announced plans to accelerate its production targets, with a significant increase of 710,000 barrels per day from Saudi Arabia in June, exceeding its quota [4]. Group 2: Production and Demand Forecasts - IEA has adjusted its forecasts for global oil supply growth, predicting an increase of 2.1 million barrels per day by 2025, with OPEC+ contributing 700,000 barrels per day and non-OPEC+ contributing 1.4 million barrels per day [4]. - Despite a downward revision in demand growth expectations, IEA anticipates a seasonal peak in refinery output, with an increase of 3.7 million barrels per day from May to August, reaching a total of 85.4 million barrels per day [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The European Union is moving towards implementing a new price cap mechanism on Russian oil, potentially lowering the current cap from $60 to around $50 per barrel, which aims to maintain pressure on Russian oil prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Weak Outlook**: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PX, PTA/PR, ethylene glycol, methanol, urea, asphalt [1][2][3] - **Rebound with Upside Potential**: PVC, glass, soda ash, caustic soda [1][2] - **Bullish Rebound**: L, PP [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure is rising, and oil prices are under downward pressure. OPEC+ is increasing production, and demand growth is slower than supply growth. Consider short - term short positions with call option protection [1][5][6]. - **LPG**: Cost is falling, and supply is abundant. The market is weak. Short - term short positions are recommended [1][7][9]. - **L**: Supply and demand are both weak. There is a short - term rebound, but a long - term decline is expected. Sell - hedging can be considered [1][11]. - **PP**: The market sentiment is positive, and export margins are improving. There is a short - term rebound, but long - term supply pressure exists. Consider 9 - 1 positive spreads [1][13]. - **PVC**: Macroeconomic sentiment drives the market. There is a short - term rebound, but long - term supply pressure may limit the upside. A short - long and long - short strategy is recommended [1][16]. - **PX**: Supply - demand balance is expected to ease. There is a short - term correction. Look for high - shorting opportunities [1][18]. - **PTA/PR**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weakening. Look for high - shorting opportunities [1][21]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to be loose, and demand is weakening. Look for high - shorting opportunities [1][23]. - **Glass**: Policy expectations are positive. There is a short - term rebound. Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [2]. - **Soda Ash**: High supply and high inventory. The rebound is limited. Consider short - term short positions [2][30]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is a short - term rebound due to inventory reduction and subsidy. The price center is moving up [2][33]. - **Methanol**: Supply is abundant, and demand is weakening. Hold existing short positions and add short on rebounds [3][35]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. Look for high - shorting opportunities [3]. - **Asphalt**: Cost is falling, and supply is abundant. Consider short - term short positions [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 4.39%, Brent dropped 2.21%, and SC rose 0.89% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ is increasing production in August. The current consumption season and Saudi's price increase provide some support, but supply pressure is rising. US crude inventory increased by 710 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 270 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 82.5 million barrels [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, supply is in excess. In the short - term, the trend is weak. Short positions with call option protection are recommended. SC is expected to trade between 500 - 520 [6]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On July 10, the PG main contract closed at 4199 yuan/ton, up 0.50%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged [7]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream oil price is the main factor. Although there is short - term support, the subsequent OPEC+ production increase will bring downward pressure. PDH device profit decreased, and inventory increased [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the supply of upstream crude oil is in excess. In the short - term, the trend is weak. Short positions with call option protection are recommended. PG is expected to trade between 4130 - 4230 [9]. L - **Basic Logic**: The domestic polyethylene market is in a weak situation. Although the oil price may rise, the downstream demand is in the off - season. New devices are expected to be put into production in July - August, and the long - term outlook is weak. There is a short - term rebound, and sell - hedging can be considered [11]. PP - **Market Performance**: PP futures prices rose slightly, and the export margin improved. The main contract basis weakened, and the inventory increased slightly [13]. - **Basic Logic**: The downstream demand is weak, and the supply pressure exists. There is a short - term rebound, and 9 - 1 positive spreads can be considered [13]. PVC - **Market Performance**: PVC futures prices rose, and the basis weakened. The inventory increased, and the cost support decreased [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The production is expected to increase, and the demand is stable in the off - season. The inventory pressure is increasing. There is a short - term rebound, and a short - long and long - short strategy is recommended [16]. PX - **Market Performance**: On July 4, the PX spot price in East China was 7120 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6672 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread was 90 yuan/ton, and the basis was 448 yuan/ton [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas device loads are high, and the demand from PTA is weakening. The supply - demand balance is expected to ease. PXN is not low, and the basis is high. Look for high - shorting opportunities [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX is expected to trade between 6670 - 6790 [19]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On July 4, the PTA spot price in East China was 4835 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4710 yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was 60 yuan/ton, and the basis was 125 yuan/ton [20]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is expected to increase with new device launches. The demand from downstream polyester and terminal weaving is weakening. Inventory is decreasing, but the overall situation is neutral. Look for high - shorting opportunities [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA is expected to trade between 4650 - 4750 [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On July 5, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4361 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4277 yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, and the basis was 84 yuan/ton [22]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose with more device restarts and expected increase in arrivals. The demand from downstream polyester and terminal weaving is weakening. Low inventory provides some support. Look for high - shorting opportunities [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG is expected to trade between 4280 - 4330 [24]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The spot price was stable, and the futures price rose slightly. The basis narrowed, and the inventory decreased slightly [26]. - **Basic Logic**: The policy is expected to improve the supply - demand situation. Although there is short - term constraint, the price may move up slightly. Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG is expected to trade between 1070 - 1100 [27]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The heavy - soda spot price increased, and the futures price rose. The main contract basis decreased, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is at a high level, and the inventory is difficult to reduce. Although the policy provides some support, the long - term situation is still weak. A wide - range oscillation strategy is recommended [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA is expected to trade between 1215 - 1245 [30]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The spot price of caustic soda increased in some areas, and the futures price center moved up. The basis strengthened, and the inventory decreased [32]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is under pressure, but the demand from alumina is recovering. There is an expectation of inventory reduction during the maintenance season. Pay attention to the rebound driven by inventory reduction [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SH is expected to trade between 2480 - 2530 [33]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: On July 4, the methanol spot price in East China was 2446 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 2399 yuan/ton. The basis weakened, and the inventory increased [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream profit is good, and the domestic device operation rate is high. The demand from MTO is weakening, and the traditional demand is entering the off - season. The inventory is increasing, and the basis is weakening. Short positions are recommended [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA is expected to trade between 2365 - 2405 [35]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The supply is increasing as the maintenance devices resume production. The demand from industry and agriculture is weak, but the fertilizer export is growing. The cost provides some support. Look for high - shorting opportunities [3]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost of asphalt is falling due to the decline in oil price. The supply is abundant, and the demand is affected by the weather. Short positions are recommended [3].

Core Insights - International crude oil prices experienced a rebound due to the summer driving season in Europe and the U.S., alongside a weakening dollar, with NYMEX WTI prices rising above $68 per barrel by July 8 [1] - Despite seasonal demand, significant downward pressure on prices is expected in Q3 due to OPEC+'s increasing production plans and the ongoing impact of U.S. tariff policies on global economic growth [1] OPEC+ Production Increase - OPEC+ is significantly increasing production to regain market share, with an agreement reached on July 5 to raise output by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations [2] - A potential meeting on August 3 may approve an additional increase of approximately 550,000 barrels per day for September, bringing total output from key OPEC+ members back to 2.17 million barrels per day [2] - In May, OPEC's production rose to 27.022 million barrels per day, an increase of 184,000 barrels per day from April, with Saudi Arabia and Libya contributing the most to this increase [2] U.S. Production Trends - U.S. crude oil production is projected to grow by 270,000 barrels per day in 2024, averaging 13.2 million barrels per day, a 2.08% increase from 2023 [3] - As of June 27, U.S. production had decreased to 13.433 million barrels per day, down from a record high of 13.631 million barrels per day in December [3] - High-cost shale oil producers are beginning to cut production due to falling prices, with the average breakeven prices in key regions being $62 and $64 per barrel [3] Geopolitical Impact - Recent geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict between Israel and Iran, initially caused spikes in oil prices, but the impact has been short-lived as supply routes have normalized [4] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased by 450,000 barrels per day in June, reaching the highest level in over a year [4] - Structural changes in the energy market, including diversified supply sources and improved strategic reserves, are reducing the traditional dominance of oil-producing countries [4] Demand Concerns - Trade barriers and tariffs are expected to weaken global economic growth, which may suppress oil demand [5] - Forecasts for global oil demand in 2025 have been adjusted by major agencies, with IEA, EIA, and OPEC predicting demand at 103.7627 million, 103.5280 million, and 105.1349 million barrels per day, respectively [6] - Seasonal gasoline consumption in the U.S. has seen a mild recovery, but overall demand during the summer driving season is expected to be lower than previous years [6] Domestic Market Dynamics - In May, China's crude oil imports showed negative growth year-on-year, with a 3% decline month-on-month [7] - Domestic refining profits have increased, leading to a rise in refinery operating rates, while smaller refineries are struggling with low profits [7] - The global oil market is likely to face oversupply, driven by OPEC+'s production increases and the impact of U.S. energy policies [7]