行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 12 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite efforts by the Trump administration to increase U.S. oil production, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its forecast, predicting a decline in oil production by 2026 compared to 2025, marking the first downward adjustment since 2021 [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Oil Production Forecast - The EIA projects that U.S. oil production will average 13.42 million barrels per day in 2023, decreasing to 13.37 million barrels per day by 2026 [1][2]. - The EIA's previous forecast had anticipated a record high for 2026, indicating a significant shift in expectations [1]. - The decline in production is attributed to lower oil prices leading to reduced drilling activities, with the number of active drilling rigs falling to 442, the lowest level since October 2021 [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors Impacting Production - The ongoing low prices of WTI crude oil have pushed some shale oil producers below their breakeven points, leading to a decrease in capital expenditures and drilling investments [2][5]. - Producers require an oil price of approximately $65 per barrel to achieve profitability, while production costs for countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia are significantly lower [5]. - The combination of high inflation increasing drilling costs and the depletion of high-quality oil fields further complicates the production landscape for U.S. producers [1][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The EIA anticipates that global oil production will outpace demand growth, leading to increased global oil inventories and downward pressure on prices [6]. - The projected average prices for WTI crude oil are $62.33 per barrel in 2024 and $55.58 per barrel in 2025, reflecting a bearish outlook [6]. - Despite the challenges faced by U.S. producers, global oil supply is expected to continue growing, potentially leading to a supply surplus [6][7]. Group 4: Strategic Contradictions - The Trump administration's energy strategy has been criticized for its inherent contradictions, as it seeks to boost production while also aiming for lower oil prices [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the desire for both high production and low prices is unrealistic, indicating a fundamental conflict in the administration's approach to energy policy [4][5].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2507： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-11原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1.基本面：美国谈判代表表示，美中在伦敦举行的贸易磋商进展顺利，商务部长卢特尼克称，美国与中国 达成的贸易框架和落实计划，应能解决稀土和磁材的限制问题；美国能源信息署(EIA)在月度《短期能源展 望》报告中称，由于大宗商品价格下跌迫使钻井商以快于预期的速度减少钻机，美国明年的原油产量将下 降；欧盟委员会正式公布对俄罗斯的第十八轮制裁措施草案，建议将对俄罗斯的原油价格上限从每桶60美 元下调至45美元，欧盟成员国将于本周开始就该草案进行讨论；中性 2.基差：6月10日，阿曼原油现货价为67.09美元/桶，卡 ...

4月初，受美国推出所谓"对等关税"与OPEC+意外增产的双重影响，国际油价自75美元／桶一路跌破多 个重要支撑位，且两度下探至4年低点58美元／桶附近，跌幅超过20%，在众多风险资产中表现最为突 出。此后，随着贸易摩擦阶段性缓和，OPEC+延续加速投产，地缘局势动荡无序反复，原油消费开始 触底回升，油价在宏观、产业多空因素交织的复杂背景下进入区间窄幅震荡阶段，波动幅度缩小但节奏 凌乱。 供应端：在主动增产与被动减产中寻求平衡 5月31日，OPEC+的8个产油国宣布7月将继续增产，日产量增加41.1万桶。这是OPEC+连续第三个月加 快扩产步伐，4—7月累计恢复生产配额137万桶／日，此规模较最初计划提前半年达成，且在过去一段 时间内持续对油价走势形成抑制。 整体来看，OPEC+持续增产，一方面是为兑现复产承诺，另一方面也是因哈萨克斯坦等国超产而采取 的无奈惩罚措施。随着增产及油价下跌，这两个诉求均已达成。在本次会议上，俄罗斯、阿尔及利亚和 阿曼首次提出暂停增产，这一反对声音为未来OPEC+产量政策的调整预留了想象空间。 此外，基于各国生产情况、过往生产纪律以及后续补偿减产计划进行测算，到7月，这8个产油国的实 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ production increases strengthen the expectation of a rise in global crude oil supply. If OPEC+ continues to increase production, the global crude oil market may be in a long - term supply surplus, intensifying the current imbalance between supply and demand and putting long - term downward pressure on oil prices. Long - term attention should be paid to the implementation of OPEC+ production increases. Short - term factors such as Ukraine's attacks on Russian air bases, Canadian wildfires, and low inventory levels support oil prices. Short - term trading is recommended [2][6][33] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil oscillated. SC2507 opened at 451 for the week, reached a high of 468, a low of 461, and closed at 447, down 4.9 or 1.08% for the week. The 07 contract also oscillated [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 OPEC - In April, OPEC's total crude oil production decreased by 62,000 barrels per day to 26.71 million barrels per day, and the total production of "OPEC+" countries decreased by 106,000 barrels per day to 40.92 million barrels per day. Kazakhstan's oil production in April decreased by 41,000 barrels per day to 1.82 million barrels per day. The IEA raised its 2025 total oil supply forecast from 104.2 million barrels per day to 104.6 million barrels per day, and adjusted the 2026 global oil supply growth forecast from 960,000 barrels per day to 970,000 barrels per day, and the 2026 total oil supply forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 105.6 million barrels per day. On May 31, 2025, eight OPEC+ member countries decided to increase daily oil production by 411,000 barrels starting from July, which is the third consecutive month of supply expansion of the same scale since May. The alliance said the increase is based on a stable global economy and a healthy market, and it will adjust the supply rhythm dynamically according to the seasonal peak demand in the third quarter and reserve the right to "suspend or reverse the production increase" [5] 2.2 Russia - Russia, the second - largest oil producer in OPEC+, relies on a wartime economy for economic growth. President Putin estimated that Russia's GDP grew by 3.9% in 2024. Russia's crude oil production in 2024 was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In March 2025, its crude oil production dropped from 9.08 million barrels per day in February to 9.07 million barrels per day, still higher than the OPEC+ quota of 8.98 million barrels per day. However, OPEC data showed that in March, Russia's crude oil production further decreased to 8.963 million barrels per day. According to Russia's new energy strategy, its crude oil production is expected to stabilize at 540 million metric tons per year (10.8 million barrels per day) by 2050. The second - round Russia - Ukraine negotiation was held in Istanbul, Turkey on June 2, 2025. Ukraine claimed to have caused $7 billion in losses to Russia through the "Spider Web" operation. The Russian delegation brought a memorandum draft and other cease - fire proposals to the negotiation. Ukraine stated it would not compromise on territorial issues [7][8] 2.3 United States - As of the week ending May 23, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.401 million barrels per day, an increase of 9,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The number of US oil drilling rigs decreased by 4 to 461, the fifth consecutive weekly decline and the lowest level in three and a half years. The EIA predicted that US crude oil production in 2025 would be 13.51 million barrels per day, lower than the previous forecast of 13.61 million barrels per day, and the 2026 production would be 13.56 million barrels per day, previously estimated at 13.76 million barrels per day [9] 2.4 Americas' Production Increase - OPEC said that in 2025, the supply from non - OPEC+ countries would increase by about 800,000 barrels per day, lower than last month's forecast of 900,000 barrels per day. The IEA maintained its 2025 non - OPEC+ supply growth forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day and lowered the 2026 non - OPEC+ supply growth forecast from 920,000 barrels per day to 820,000 barrels per day [16] 2.5 Inventory - OPEC reported that in March 2025, the total OECD oil and crude oil product inventory was 3.996 billion barrels, a decrease of 13.41 million barrels from the previous quarter and an increase of 130,000 barrels from the same period last year. As of the week ending May 23, 2025, US total crude oil inventory was 842 million barrels, a decrease of 1.975 million barrels (- 0.23%) from the previous week; strategic crude oil inventory was 401 million barrels, an increase of 820,000 barrels (+ 0.20%); commercial crude oil inventory was 440 million barrels, a decrease of 2.795 million barrels (- 0.63%); and Cushing crude oil inventory was 23.51 million barrels, an increase of 75,000 barrels (+ 0.32%) [17] 2.6 Consumption - OPEC predicted that global oil demand would increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026, higher than the IEA's estimate of 741,000 barrels per day. The IEA raised its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast from 726,000 barrels per day to 741,000 barrels per day and the 2026 forecast from 692,000 barrels per day to 760,000 barrels per day, and predicted that the average global oil demand in 2026 would reach 104.7 million barrels per day. As of the week ending May 23, 2025, US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.328 million barrels per day, a decrease of 162,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the refinery utilization rate was 90.20%, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous week. On May 16, US refined oil processing fees were $174 per ton, and Asian refinery processing fees were low at $187 per ton. In the week of May 16, the profit of Shandong independent refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 335 yuan per ton, a decrease of 125 yuan per ton from the previous week and 30 yuan per ton from the same period last year. On May 16, the profit of major refineries was 751 yuan per ton, an increase of 310 yuan per ton from the previous week. In April, the US refinery utilization rate was 88.00%, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%; the European utilization rate was 81.90%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.10% [20][24][25] 2.6 Geopolitics - On May 23, Iran and the US started the fifth - round indirect nuclear negotiation in Rome, Italy, mediated by Oman. US President Trump said there was a "very good dialogue" with Iran, but the Iranian Foreign Minister downplayed the progress. Oman's Foreign Minister said the negotiation "made some but not decisive progress." On May 31, Oman's Foreign Minister visited Iran to introduce the US negotiation proposal. The US insists that Iran should completely stop all levels of uranium enrichment activities, while Iran emphasizes that moderate uranium enrichment is part of its right to peaceful use of nuclear energy and is willing to sign a nuclear agreement if the US lifts sanctions. Hamas in Palestine announced its willingness to start a new round of cease - fire negotiations in the Gaza Strip, and Qatar and Egypt will continue to work for a cease - fire agreement [30][32] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Long - term attention should be paid to OPEC+ production increase implementation. Short - term trading is recommended due to short - term supporting factors [33]

021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 29 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

自今年1月中旬以来，国际油价累计跌幅已超10%，核心压力源自两大因素：一是特朗普政府对多国加 征关税引发的全球贸易紧张局势，中国等经济体采取的反制措施进一步加剧市场对能源需求前景的担 忧;二是OPEC+产油国联盟逐步退出自愿减产协议，其持续增产行为与需求疲软预期形成共振。 据知情人士透露，该组织已决定将原定于6月1日召开的联合部长级监督委员会(JMMC)会议提前至5月31 日举行，会议将重点讨论沙特、俄罗斯等8个核心成员国7月的具体产量配额。上周，OPEC+技术委员 会已就"连续第三个月增产"展开初步磋商，但具体增幅仍存分歧。 当前市场处于多空因素交织的敏感期：一方面，贸易摩擦升级可能抑制全球经济增长及原油消费;另一 方面，OPEC+若能在会议上释放谨慎增产信号，或为油价提供阶段性底部支撑。交易员正等待更多政 策端线索，以判断下半年供需平衡表的演变方向。 智通财经APP获悉，在石油输出国组织(OPEC+)即将召开关键产量政策会议之际，国际油价维持窄幅波 动。市场参与者正密切关注欧美贸易关系缓和的可能性，同时消化主要经济体地缘政策变动带来的连锁 反应。 受伦敦证券交易所和纽约市场因假日休市影响，5月27日(周一 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 展望 原油周报 (5.12-5.16) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油反复震荡，纽约商品交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶61.93美元，周涨2.23%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶65.33美 元，周涨2.27%；中国上海原油期货收于每桶462.5元，周跌2.10%。周初，随着中美关税战缓和，投资者对贸易前景的担忧缓和提振油价上涨。 中美两国发布联合申明称，中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平。美国财政部长贝森特表示，这项降税措施将持续90天， 期间全球两大经济体将继续展开谈判。此外，美国总统特朗普在白宫宣布，美国与英国达成一项新的贸易协议， ...

从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1.数据变化分析 EIA原油超预期累库，油价再度转弱 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 | | 数据指标 | 2025-05-14 | 2025-05-13 | 变化 | 涨跌幅 | 黃勢 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SC | 486. 60 | 479. 50 | 7. 10 | 1. 48% | | 元/辆 | | | WII | 62. 43 | 63. 63 | -1. 20 | -1.89% | | 美元/簡 | | | Brent | 65. 85 | 66. 60 | -0. 75 | -1. 13% | | 美元/簡 | | 现货价格 | OPEC 一览子 | 65. 38 | 65. 38 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 美元/簡 | | | Brent | 66. 06 | 66. 19 | -0. 13 | - ...

主要能源机构5月平衡表 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年5月15日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 目录 CONTENTS 01 EIA 02 OPEC 注：括号内数字为上月月报数据，供参考对比 EIA现在预计2025年布伦特原油价格平均66美元/桶（68），2026年进一步跌至59美元/桶（61） 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 21-1 21-7 22-1 22-7 23-1 23-7 24-1 24-7 25-1 25-7 26-1 26-7 四年区间 WTI现货价 预估值 Brent价格预估变化 WTI现货价预测 资料来源：EIA 01 EIA 1.1 EIA平衡表 供应 消费 平衡 平衡变化 2025Q1 103.19 103.22 -0.03 +0.17 2025Q2 103.81 103.33 +0.48 -0.07 2025Q3 104.42 104.01 +0.41 -0.26 2025Q4 105.07 104.32 +0.75 -0.02 2025 104.12 103.72 +0.41 -0.05 2026 105.4 ...