半年度报告——天然气 供应再创新高，需求难以承接 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | TTF/JKM/HH:看跌 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 6 | 月 | 24 | 日 | [★Ta美bl国e_天Su然mm气a市ry]场——供应再创新高，气电反向驱动： 能 我们最新的平衡表显示 2025 年美国天然气市场并不会存在严重的 供需缺口，直接变成平衡了，原因是气价的大幅上涨刺激了供应的 迅速回归。不仅美国的干气产量在 2025 年创新高，加拿大的天然 气产量也在 2025 年显著回升。高气价不仅导致供应大幅增加，同 时也导致了煤气逆向转换，即煤电对气电形成反向替代。在煤代气 和可再生电力的双重挤压之下，气电需求难以续写此前不断创历史 新高的神话，开始掉头向下。 ★投资建议： 源 ★欧洲需求疲软，累库斜率大幅向上： 与 碳 中 和 除了取暖季，尤其是 2 月需求较好之外，其他时间需求并不强势， 甚至在 2 季度，总量需求还不及 2024 年同期。分领域来看，气电 需求上升更多是由风电和水电不足所致，而并非来自于总量需求增 ...

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced a significant drop, with Brent and WTI crude futures both falling over 7%, marking the largest single-day decline since August 2022 [1] - Brent crude futures closed at $71.48 per barrel, down $5.53, while WTI closed at $68.51 per barrel, also down $5.53 [1] - The market's initial fears of a disruption in oil supply due to potential Iranian actions were alleviated when Iran targeted a U.S. military base in Qatar instead of oil infrastructure [1][2] Group 2 - Iran's decision to strike a military base rather than oil facilities may signal a desire to de-escalate tensions and avoid a broader conflict [2] - Energy market consultancy Energy Aspects noted that the attack on a well-defended base without casualties could indicate Iran's intention to avoid full-scale conflict [2] - The attack did not disrupt oil and LNG transportation from Qatar, and U.S. military bases reported no additional attacks [2] Group 3 - Despite the geopolitical tensions, some vessels adjusted their routes, with at least two supertankers turning around near the Strait of Hormuz [3] - Major international oil companies, including BP, TotalEnergies, and Eni, have withdrawn some staff from Iraqi oil fields due to the situation [3] - Historical context suggests that while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are common, they have not previously led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [3] Group 4 - U.S. President Trump urged the Energy Department to increase domestic oil production to mitigate potential price spikes due to Middle Eastern tensions [3] - Investors are reassessing the "geopolitical risk premium" in oil prices, with HSBC indicating that Brent could briefly rise above $80 per barrel if the risk of closure in the Strait of Hormuz increases [3]

——市场看透了战争的"舞台"。 今天市场非常有戏剧性： 伊朗报复了：袭击了美军在伊拉克和卡塔尔的基地。 结果却反常：股市不但没跌，反而大涨；油价暴跌。 想看我们对全球市场更深刻的见解，可订阅《环球市场策略：风中警告，瞬息巨变》，接下来会发生什么？不同剧本下，油价怎么走？黄金、美元又怎么 反应？答案尽在于此。 特别声明：以上内容仅代表作者本人的观点或立场，不代表新浪财经头条的观点或立场。如因作品内容、版权或其他问题需要与新浪财经头条联系的，请 于上述内容发布后的30天内进行。 · 特朗普称，伊朗的回应非常弱，非常有效地反击了伊朗的回应，没有美国人受伤，几乎没有造成任何损失，或许伊朗现在可以走向和平与和谐。现在是 和平的时候了。 伊朗对一个防御严密的美军基地发动"预先释放信号"的攻击，而且没有美方人员伤亡，这种攻击成为缓和紧张局势的第一步。伊朗可以声称它已经对美国 军方进行了报复，同时也发出了一个明确的信号，即它不想卷入与美国的一场它无法取胜的战争。卡塔尔突然关闭领空、伊朗导弹落地，美军无实质重大 伤亡，很像双方在控制节奏。 2、但油价揭穿了伊朗的"虚张声势"。周一开盘先是上涨逾6%，表示对该事件的重视；随后，进 ...

全球约五分之一的原油供应途经霍尔木兹海峡，市场目光聚焦于此，关注伊朗是否会试图干扰油轮通 行。 盛宝银行： 盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管奥勒·S·汉森表示："长期以来，我一直认为战略考量(尤其涉及对亲伊朗的卡 塔尔及其关键液化天然气出口的影响)，以及伊朗对中国(其最大石油客户)的依赖，会起到遏制作用，但 这种情况只有在伊朗自身石油出口设施未成为打击目标时才成立 。" 汉森补充道："值得注意的是，当前地缘政治风险溢价已超每桶10美元，若没有实际供应中断，这种溢 价难以长期维持。若供应未受影响，油价涨势可能难以持续。" 高盛： 智通财经APP获悉，因美国周末与以色列一同打击伊朗核设施，加剧了市场对潜在石油供应中断的担 忧，油价周一飙升至1月以来的最高水平。 截至发稿，布伦特原油涨0.94%，报每桶76.19美元;WTI原油涨0.91%，报每桶74.51美元。美国天然气期 货涨0.15%，报每百万英热单位3.95美元 。 高盛周日发布报告称，因担忧霍尔木兹海峡潜在中断可能引发油气价格大幅飙升，全球能源供应面临风 险。 该行预计，若这条关键水道的石油流量在一个月内减半，且后续11个月维持10%的降幅，布伦特原油价 格可能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel on the global oil market, highlighting that while geopolitical risks have increased, analysts believe that Iran is unlikely to block the Strait of Hormuz, which would limit the sustainability of the current geopolitical risk premium on oil prices [1][5][7]. Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices - Following the conflict's escalation, Brent crude oil futures rose over 3%, reaching $81.40 per barrel, while WTI crude hit $78.40, marking five-month highs. Since June 13, Brent crude has increased by 13%, and WTI by approximately 10% [6]. - The CBOE crude oil volatility index has reached levels similar to those seen shortly after the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in March 2022 [6]. - Analysts suggest that the geopolitical risk premium may not be sustainable if there are no substantial disruptions to oil supply [7][8]. Worst-Case Scenarios - Two worst-case scenarios are discussed: the potential blocking of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and instability within the Iranian regime. If the Strait were to be blocked, oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel, with some estimates suggesting prices could reach between $100 and $120 per barrel [2][11][12][13]. - Historical data indicates that significant military conflicts involving Israel have not led to lasting impacts on oil prices, with prices often stabilizing and declining over time [8][9]. Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts from various financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, predict that if oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz is halved due to a blockade, Brent prices could spike to $110, followed by a decline [13]. - The potential for political instability in Iran could lead to significant changes in oil production policies, which may result in prolonged price increases [15][16]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes that while the current geopolitical tensions have led to a temporary spike in oil prices, the long-term outlook remains uncertain, with analysts expecting prices to stabilize unless there are significant supply disruptions [8][12].

在任何一种最坏情境下，参考历史情况，油价都将再次突破100美元/桶。 以伊冲突升级以来，最显著的市场反应出现在原油市场。而在美国上周末介入伊朗和以色列之间的冲突后，国际 原油市场正进入一个不确定的新阶段。目前，大部分分析师仍预计，无论出于何种考虑，伊朗大概率不会选择封 锁霍尔木兹海峡，油价的地缘政治冲突溢价后续将减弱。 当然，市场人士也讨论了两种最坏情境，即伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡或伊朗政权不稳定之下，国际油价可能的走 势。在任何一种最坏情境下，参考历史情况，油价都将再次突破100美元/桶。 22日，美国总统特朗普发表全国电视讲话，称美国刚刚"彻底清除"伊朗福尔道、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设施， 并称伊朗必须同意结束这场战争，若伊朗对美国展开任何形式的报复，美国将以"远超今夜所见的武力"进行回 击。而据央视新闻22日消息，伊朗议会国家安全委员会委员库萨里表示，伊朗议会已得出结论，认为应关闭霍尔 木兹海峡，但最终决定权在伊朗最高国家安全委员会手中。 虽然情况非常剑拔弩张，但分析师仍认为，伊朗不太可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡。而如果没有实质性原油供应中断， 油价目前的地缘政治风险溢价不太可能持续下去。盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管哈 ...

Market Reaction - Asian markets, particularly Japan and South Korea, experienced significant declines, with the South Korean composite index dropping over 1.6% before narrowing to a 1.14% decrease [2] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell nearly 1% during trading, ultimately down 0.64% [4] Chip Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector in both Japan and South Korea saw widespread declines, with Samsung Electronics dropping over 2.8% [6] - Other notable declines included Samsung SDI and Hanmi Semiconductor, both down over 4%, and SK Hynix down over 3% [7] - In Japan, Kioxia Holdings fell over 6% amid reports of potential changes in U.S. export controls affecting major semiconductor manufacturers, including TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix [8] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline after initially rising to $3,400 per ounce, reflecting a rapid drop in geopolitical risk premium [10] - Deutsche Bank indicated that the current decline in gold's geopolitical risk premium may be misleading, suggesting that gold could rebuild its risk premium in the coming weeks [11] - Citigroup analysts forecast that gold prices may peak between $3,100 and $3,500 per ounce in Q3 2023 before gradually declining to a range of $2,500 to $2,700 per ounce by the second half of 2026, representing a potential drop of 20% to 25% from current forward prices [11]

白宫近期的军事部署动向引发全球能源市场高度关注。美国总统特朗普连续数日公开表态考虑军事选 项，而相关官员披露的潜在打击时间窗口更令市场神经紧绷。作为全球石油供应的"命脉区域"，中东地 区承载着全球三分之一的原油产量，其局势稳定性直接牵动能源市场神经。 智通财经APP获悉，随着中东局势持续紧张，国际原油市场正经历新一轮价格重估。行业观察家指出， 自以色列与伊朗上周爆发直接军事冲突以来，布伦特原油期货价格已隐含约8美元/桶的地缘政治风险溢 价，这一数据源自对九位资深分析师的专项调查。 市场参与者普遍认为，若美国实际介入冲突，该溢价将进一步扩大，但具体幅度仍取决于军事行动的规 模与性质。 当前市场密切监测两大关键节点：全球五分之一原油运输必经的霍尔木兹海峡航运状况，以及伊朗境内 石油基础设施的运转情况。值得注意的是，尽管地区局势升温，但最新航运数据显示伊朗原油出口量不 降反增。 能源巨头壳牌(SHEL.US)首席执行官瓦埃勒·萨万在投资者电话会议中强调，波斯湾航道若遭封锁将引 发"灾难性冲击"，公司已启动多级应急预案。巴克莱银行(BCS.US)能源分析师阿玛普里特·辛格指出， 当前油价尚未完全反映最坏情景："若冲突 ...

6月19日，港股低价油气股走势活跃，中油洁能控股（01759.HK）大涨138.74%，金泰能源控股 （02728.HK）涨52.94%，吉星新能源（03395.HK）涨34.62%，MI能源（01555.HK）涨20.93%。 以伊冲突进一步升级，中东火药桶;局势紧张。据报道，19日凌晨，伊朗对以色列发动新一轮导弹袭 击，而以军在过去24小时内对伊朗发动了三轮大规模空袭。伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊发表视频讲话，坚称 伊朗绝不投降。 以伊冲突也导致全球大宗商品市场风云变幻，国际原油价格剧烈波动。上周五，原油价格单日涨幅超 7%，创三年来最大单日涨幅，本周以来，国际油价继续维持强势震荡。 有市场人士指出，目前部分油气股大涨固然吸引了很多眼球，但投资者务必清醒认识其背后潜藏的调整 风险。 值得注意的是，由于以伊冲突对国际原油市场和经济的影响，有分析认为，美国或有足够的理由介入以 伊冲突。知情人士称，美国总统特朗普已批准了对伊朗的攻击计划，但暂不下达最终命令。据悉，目前 美国的航母打击群已前往中东地区，美军也将向中东调派战斗机，并扩大战机部署范围，以加强以伊冲 突期间的防御。 种种迹象表明，国际油价走势未来似乎很难平静。 ...

Group 1 - Russian investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev indicated that Russia, the U.S., and Saudi Arabia could take joint action to stabilize the oil market if necessary, referencing a precedent from 2020 when leaders collaborated to cut production amid a price crash due to the pandemic [1] - The recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East, particularly Israel's attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, has led to a surge in oil prices, with market dynamics determining the severity of this increase [1] - The geopolitical risk premium in oil prices is currently estimated at around $10 per barrel, which is considered reasonable given the potential for broader disruptions and reduced Iranian supply [2] Group 2 - Iran, as the third-largest producer in OPEC, extracts approximately 3.3 million barrels of oil daily, with significant concerns about potential disruptions to trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz, where about 19 million barrels of oil and products are transported daily [3] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates but is expected to implement two rate cuts by the end of the year, which could stimulate economic activity and subsequently increase oil demand, although this may also exacerbate inflation [4]