Core Viewpoint - The current oil price adjustment is expected to increase by 110 yuan/ton, translating to a rise of 0.08-0.10 yuan per liter, despite a decrease in the expected increase compared to the previous day [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - The international oil price has recently declined due to the rising US dollar index and the resumption of US-Iran negotiations, leading investors to take profits [3] - As of the latest update, US crude oil is priced at $62.96 per barrel, reflecting a 0.25% decrease, while Brent crude oil has dropped to $67.04 per barrel, down 2.09% [3] - The market is currently in a complex balance, with actual supply surplus countered by geopolitical uncertainties that drive price volatility [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The recent US-Russia-Ukraine talks have resulted in a prisoner exchange agreement, which may influence future negotiations and market sentiment [3] - Geopolitical risk premiums have decreased, potentially exerting downward pressure on oil prices [3] Group 3: Regional Oil Prices - The following are the current prices for various fuel types across different regions in China: - Beijing: 92 gasoline at 6.94, 95 gasoline at 7.39, 98 gasoline at 8.89, 0 diesel at 6.62 [4] - Jiangsu: 92 gasoline at 6.91, 95 gasoline at 7.35, 98 gasoline at 9.41, 0 diesel at 6.54 [4] - Guangdong: 92 gasoline at 6.96, 95 gasoline at 7.54, 98 gasoline at 9.54, 0 diesel at 6.58 [4] - Prices vary across regions, with notable differences in 98 gasoline prices ranging from 8.05 in Hainan to 9.54 in Guangdong [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing a retreat in prices after a period of increase, attributed to the easing of geopolitical risk premiums and concerns over economic growth impacting oil demand [1]. Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed that US-Iran talks will take place in Oman, alleviating fears of imminent military conflict in the Middle East that could disrupt oil supply [1]. - The market's concerns regarding potential military conflicts in the Middle East have significantly diminished, leading to a release of previously accumulated geopolitical risk premiums [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent US private sector employment data showed weak performance, raising concerns about economic growth slowdown, which in turn has cast doubt on the oil demand outlook [1]. - The combination of weak employment data and geopolitical uncertainties has contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices [1]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Saudi Arabia has lowered the official selling price of its main crude oil varieties for Asian buyers to a multi-year low, although the actual reduction was less than market expectations, indicating a response to temporary supply easing rather than a pessimistic view on demand [1]. - Shell's CEO Wael Sawan noted that while there is a degree of supply surplus in the market, it is balanced by geopolitical challenges that create significant uncertainty, which itself contributes to price premiums [1]. Group 4: Ongoing Conflicts - Traders are closely monitoring the situation in Ukraine, as President Zelensky indicated that Russian attacks on energy infrastructure could affect negotiation processes, adding to the emotional uncertainty in the oil market [1].

行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 5 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1： | 行情回顾(美元/桶) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

各类资产行情与基本面分析 受此不确定性驱动，现货黄金在周二上演了绝地反击，日内狂飙超6%，创下自2008年金融危机以来的 最大单日涨幅。亚市早盘金价企稳于4974美元附近，坚挺的基本面与"沃什冲击"引发的空头回补形成了 强大的共振。 1. 美股市场 指数表现 个股焦点 英特尔 (INTC)： 报 49.25 美元，上涨 0.90%。存储板块与复苏逻辑支撑其日内逆市走强。 2. 外汇市场 3. 贵金属与大宗商品 2026年2月4日，全球金融市场在特朗普政府的一则重磅提名下再度陷入剧烈波动。随着提名偏向"鹰 派"的凯文·沃什接替即将卸任的鲍威尔，市场对于美联储未来政策路径的确定性发生动摇。尽管美国1 月制造业PMI回升至52.6，创下近三年半以来新高，彰显出内需的强韧与扩张，但美元指数却诡异地在 周二下跌0.12%至97.42，终结了此前1.5%的强劲涨势。这种异动，反映出投资者在联储人事更迭之际， 对长期货币政策透明度的担忧已压倒了短期经济数据的支撑。 贵金属 大宗商品 WTI 原油 (XTIUSD)： 报 63.88 美元/桶，下跌 0.09%。地缘政治风险溢价快速回吐，油价回撤至 64 美元下方寻底。 4. ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 4 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1： | 行情回顾(美元/桶) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

2026.02.03 本文字数：1759，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 高雅 封图 |AI生成 长期以来，黄金与美元之间始终维持着一种稳定的反向关联。然而，当前这种传统线性关系似乎正在瓦 解，两者的波动幅度已出现失衡。 在过去一个完整的年度交易周期（260个交易日）内，金价涨幅与美元跌幅之比高达7.2倍；在半年维度 下，这一倍数更是达到了31倍。 这种显著的敏感度偏离与非线性涨幅，是否意味着锚定金价的传统建模方式已经失效？全球投资咨询公 司BCA Research反向投资策略（Counterpoint）研究服务主管乔希（Dhaval Joshi）在近期金银价格剧烈 回调前接受第一财经记者采访时表示，金银价格与美元走势之间的背离已达到极端水平，而这种极端行 情发生逆转是可以预期的。 "对比黄金和美元走势的波动幅度，美元走软时黄金往往上涨，但若仔细观察具体数据，便会发现近期 黄金的上涨幅度似乎超出了合理范围。两者并非简单的一比一对应关系。理论上，美元下跌1%时，黄 金的涨幅通常更大，这符合历史规律。然而即便如此，当前黄金的相对涨幅仍显得过于超前。而且，我 认为其他贵金属的上涨态势更是有过之而无不及。"他表 ...

Core Viewpoint - The traditional inverse relationship between gold and the US dollar is breaking down, with significant discrepancies in their price movements observed recently [3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - Over the past complete trading cycle (260 trading days), the ratio of gold price increase to dollar price decrease reached 7.2 times, and in a six-month view, this ratio escalated to 31 times [4]. - The dollar index fell from 107.96 to 97.42, a decrease of 9.76%, while gold prices surged from $2875 per ounce to $4905, an increase of over 70% during the same period [7]. - In a six-month observation, the dollar index dropped by 1.38%, but gold prices skyrocketed by 42.84%, further emphasizing the divergence [7]. Group 2: Pricing Models - The sensitivity of gold prices to the dollar index and real interest rates has significantly decreased, indicating a failure of traditional pricing models [7]. - Current pricing models are criticized for omitting key variables, particularly geopolitical risk premiums, which are essential for accurately assessing gold prices [8]. - Complex non-linear models may capture the growth of these premiums but fail to quantify the extent of gold price overvaluation or predict future price directions [8]. Group 3: Market Predictions - Major banks have raised their gold price forecasts, with Société Générale and Deutsche Bank predicting prices could reach $6000 per ounce this year, while Morgan Stanley anticipates a rise to $5700 [9]. - UBS highlights gold's strong performance as a hedge and diversification tool, suggesting that ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties will support gold's attractiveness [9]. - Citibank warns that while geopolitical and economic risks currently support gold investments, about half of these risks may dissipate later in the year [10].

Core Insights - The core variable omitted in current pricing models is the geopolitical risk premium [1][4] - The traditional inverse relationship between gold and the US dollar is breaking down, with gold's price movements becoming increasingly non-linear [1][3] - Recent data shows that gold's price increase has significantly outpaced the decline of the US dollar, indicating a potential failure of traditional modeling methods [3][4] Group 1: Pricing Model Failures - The sensitivity of gold prices to the US dollar index and real interest rates has significantly decreased [3][4] - In a complete trading year, the US dollar index fell by 9.76%, while gold prices surged over 70% [3] - The divergence in price movements between gold and the dollar has reached extreme levels, suggesting a potential reversal is expected [1][3] Group 2: Market Predictions - Major banks have raised their price forecasts for gold, with estimates reaching as high as $6,000 per ounce [4][5] - UBS highlights gold's strong performance as a valuable diversification tool in investment portfolios, despite a 90% increase over the past 13 months [4][5] - Citi warns that while geopolitical and economic risks support gold investments, about half of these risks may diminish later this year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The oil and gas sector is experiencing increased activity, with significant capital inflows into oil and gas ETFs, indicating strong investor interest and potential growth opportunities in the sector [1][5]. Group 1: Market Activity - The oil and gas ETF Huatai (159309) saw a rise of 0.46%, with trading volume exceeding 300 million yuan, reflecting a continuous inflow of capital totaling 554 million yuan over the past 15 days [1]. - The ETF recorded a net inflow of 23 million yuan today, showcasing ongoing investor confidence in the sector [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Key stocks in the oil and gas sector showed mixed performance, with Jereh Holdings rising nearly 4%, while major players like China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) experienced declines of over 2% [5]. - The trading volume for significant stocks included Jereh Holdings at 1.44 billion yuan and China Petroleum at 1.08 billion yuan, indicating substantial market activity [2]. Group 3: Company Contracts and Growth - Jereh Holdings signed a gas turbine generator sales contract worth 181.5 million USD (approximately 1.265 billion yuan) with a U.S. client, marking a total of 487.5 million USD (approximately 3.4 billion yuan) in contracts secured in North America over a few months [3]. - The company has consistently secured contracts in the North American market since November 2025, indicating a strong growth trajectory [3]. Group 4: Oil Price Outlook - Analysts predict that oil prices will fluctuate between 60-80 USD per barrel in 2026 due to geopolitical tensions and supply-demand dynamics, which could benefit the petrochemical sector [4]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a global oil demand increase of 930,000 barrels per day in 2026, higher than the previous year's estimate, supporting a positive outlook for oil prices [4]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The oil and gas sector is viewed as having long-term investment value due to its resilience against external uncertainties, with a focus on companies that maintain high capital expenditures and expand into natural gas markets [6]. - The Huatai oil and gas ETF is designed to concentrate on upstream and downstream sectors of the oil and gas industry, ensuring a focus on companies with quality reserves and stable dividend capabilities [6].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-02-03燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：在全球最大的加油中心新加坡，温和的高硫燃料油现货需求限制了加油溢价的上涨空间，尽管一些 买家希望在农历新年前确保供应，导致早期的驳船泊位正被迅速填满；新加坡含硫0.5%船用燃料油现货的溢价均 值为2美元/吨，原因是维多在实物交易窗口期间提出的竞争性报价带来压力；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油398.48美元/吨，基差为170元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为439.14美元/吨，基差为4元/ 吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油1月28日当周库存为2457.9万桶，增加105万桶；偏空 4、盘 ...