Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" as the industry index is expected to be in line with the benchmark [127]. Core Insights - The price spread of refining products remains weak, with domestic key refining project price spread at 2534.93 CNY/ton, down by 101.49 CNY/ton (-3.85%) week-on-week, and international key refining project price spread at 1070.98 CNY/ton, down by 55.46 CNY/ton (-4.92%) [2][12]. - Brent crude oil weekly average price was 69.73 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week increase of 1.70% [2][12]. - The report highlights the impact of OPEC+ production increases and rising EIA crude oil inventories, which negatively affect market expectations, while U.S. tariff delays and Saudi Arabia's price adjustments provide some support to oil prices [13][12]. Refining Sector Summary - The refining sector is facing increased supply expectations due to OPEC+ production increases and rising crude oil inventories, which may negatively impact market conditions [13]. - Domestic refined oil prices have generally declined, while international prices have increased [13]. - The price spread for refined products in the domestic market has decreased, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 7174.29 CNY/ton, 8171.86 CNY/ton, and 6165.43 CNY/ton respectively [13]. Chemical Sector Summary - The chemical sector is experiencing overall price declines due to weak demand, with polyethylene prices showing limited increases despite cost support [48]. - EVA prices have decreased due to weak downstream demand, leading to price concessions from suppliers [48]. - The price of pure benzene has also decreased, with a narrowing price spread despite some market support from futures listings [48]. Polyester Sector Summary - The polyester sector is seeing a slight decline in price levels, with PX supply decreasing due to reduced operating rates in some factories [78]. - PTA prices have dropped, and the average profit per ton is negative, indicating challenging market conditions [90]. - The demand for polyester products is weak, with inventory levels rising and production cuts expected [89]. Performance of Major Refining Companies - As of July 11, 2025, the stock price changes for six major private refining companies were as follows: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+0.94%), Hengli Petrochemical (-1.62%), Dongfang Shenghong (+1.76%), Hengyi Petrochemical (+0.51%), Tongkun Co. (+3.51%), and Xin Fengming (+4.50%) [112][113]. - Over the past month, stock price changes were: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+1.18%), Hengli Petrochemical (-3.34%), Dongfang Shenghong (+4.71%), Hengyi Petrochemical (-1.00%), Tongkun Co. (+3.99%), and Xin Fengming (+6.91%) [112][113].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [123]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the cost influence on product prices is weak, leading to a narrowing of refining product price spreads [1]. - Domestic key refining project price spread is 2637.62 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week change of -23.83 CNY/ton (-0.90%), while the foreign key refining project price spread is 1631.26 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week change of +370.34 CNY/ton (+29.37%) [2]. - Brent crude oil weekly average price is 68.02 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week change of -1.78% [2]. Refining Sector Summary - In the refining sector, international oil prices experienced slight increases due to positive demand expectations, but were pressured by OPEC+ production increase plans [1][13]. - As of July 4, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were 68.30 and 66.50 USD/barrel, respectively, reflecting increases of 0.53 and 0.98 USD/barrel compared to June 27, 2025 [1][13]. - Domestic refined oil prices have decreased, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 7267.29, 8276.14, and 6222.57 CNY/ton, respectively [13]. Chemical Sector Summary - The report notes that the rise in crude oil prices has a weak guiding influence on product prices, leading to an overall decline in chemical product spreads [1]. - Polyethylene prices have decreased due to cautious purchasing behavior from downstream manufacturers, while polypropylene prices have shown some support due to supply-side contractions [53]. - The average price of MMA has decreased slightly, while the price spread has improved [67]. Polyester Sector Summary - The polyester sector has seen a slight decline in price levels, with upstream PX supply slightly decreasing due to planned maintenance [81]. - The average price of PTA is reported at 4960.71 CNY/ton, with an average profit margin of -161.86 CNY/ton [90]. - The report highlights that the demand for polyester products is weakening, leading to a decrease in prices and profitability [88][102]. Performance of Major Refining Companies - The stock price changes for six major refining companies as of July 4, 2025, include Rongsheng Petrochemical (+2.91%), Hengli Petrochemical (-0.35%), and others [1][110]. - Over the past month, stock performance shows mixed results, with Rongsheng Petrochemical down by 0.12% and Hengli Petrochemical down by 2.41% [110][111].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" as the industry index is expected to be in line with the benchmark [121] Core Views - The report highlights that the cost price center has significantly increased, leading to a narrowing of product price differentials in the oil refining sector [1] - The Brent crude oil average price for the week ending June 20, 2025, was $75.53 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of $9.84 [1][2] - Domestic key refining project price differentials decreased to ¥2353.90 per ton, a decline of ¥49.10 per ton (-2.04%), while foreign key refining project price differentials increased to ¥1000.57 per ton, up by ¥48.15 per ton (+5.06%) [1][2] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, have raised supply concerns, contributing to a strong increase in international oil prices [1] - Domestic and international refined oil prices have generally risen, with domestic diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging ¥7275.43, ¥8224.29, and ¥6273.29 per ton respectively [13] Chemical Sector - Chemical prices have seen a slight increase, primarily supported by cost factors, but the price differentials have narrowed [1] - Polyethylene and polypropylene prices increased, but the rise was insufficient to improve price differentials significantly [51] - Prices for pure benzene and styrene rose significantly due to cost support, while acrylonitrile prices remained stable [51] Polyester Sector - The PX price followed cost logic, with a significant increase due to the conflict in the Middle East, leading to a rise in product prices [76] - The average price of PTA increased to ¥5095.71 per ton, with an industry average net profit of -¥166.46 per ton [82] - The polyester filament market saw a slight increase in prices, but overall profitability remained limited due to insufficient orders [85] Performance of Major Refining Companies - The stock performance of six major private refining companies showed declines, with Rongsheng Petrochemical down by 5.84% and Hengli Petrochemical down by 4.25% over the past week [108] - Over the past month, the stock performance of these companies has also been negative, with significant declines noted for Oriental Rainbow and Hengli Petrochemical [108]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints The report presents a weekly update on the large refining and chemical industry, including price, profit, inventory, and production rate data for various segments such as refining, polyester, and chemical products, as well as performance data for major private refining and chemical companies [2][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **6 Major Private Refining Companies' Performance**: The oil and petrochemical index had a 3.5% increase in the past week, 5.0% in the past month, 5.2% in the past three months, and -3.6% in the past year. Among the companies, Rongheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, Orient Shenghong, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Ltd., and Xin Fengming had different performance in terms of stock price changes and profit forecasts [8]. - **Oil Prices and Refining Spreads**: International crude oil prices (Brent and WTI) increased this week. The domestic refining project spread was 2503.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 172.1 yuan/ton (-6.4%) compared to the previous week. The foreign refining project spread was 968.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 93.8 yuan/ton (-8.8%) [8]. - **Polyester Sector**: PX, MEG, PTA, POY, FDY, DTY, and other product prices, spreads, inventories, and production rates showed various changes. For example, the PX price was 818.9 dollars/ton, a decrease of 13.3 dollars/ton, and the PX production rate was 86.4%, an increase of 1.4% [9]. - **Refining Sector**: In China, the prices of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene increased. In the US, the gasoline price decreased, while diesel and aviation kerosene prices increased. In Europe and Singapore, the prices and spreads of various refined oil products also changed [9]. - **Chemical Sector**: The prices and spreads of products such as EVA photovoltaic materials, EVA foaming materials, LDPE, LLDPE, HDPE, and others showed different trends [9]. 2. Big Refining Weekly Report - **2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends**: The report may show the trends of the big refining index, the market performance of six private big refining companies, and the weekly spreads of domestic and foreign big refining projects [11][15][17]. - **2.2 Polyester Sector**: It includes data and trends on the prices, profits, inventories, and production rates of products in the polyester industry chain, such as crude oil, PX, PTA, MEG, POY, FDY, DTY, and downstream weaving [21][31][50]. - **2.3 Refining Sector**: It presents the price and spread relationships between crude oil and various refined oil products (gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene) in different regions (China, the US, Europe, Singapore) [77][92][104]. - **2.4 Chemical Sector**: It shows the price and spread relationships between crude oil and various chemical products, such as polyethylene LLDPE, homopolymerized polypropylene, EVA foaming materials, EVA photovoltaic materials, etc. [127][128][135].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" as the industry index is expected to be in line with the benchmark [137] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the supply and demand in the refining sector are weak, and the recent rise in oil prices has not significantly boosted the prices of refined products [1] - Brent crude oil prices increased significantly due to geopolitical tensions and optimistic market sentiment regarding US-China negotiations, but later faced downward pressure from revised supply and demand forecasts [1][13] - The report highlights that the chemical sector remains under pressure, with limited price increases for chemical products despite rising oil prices [1] - The polyester sector is experiencing a decline in prices and profitability due to weak demand and high supply levels [1] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - As of June 13, 2025, the domestic refining project price difference was 2394.77 CNY/ton, a decrease of 112.93 CNY/ton (-4.50%) from the previous week, while the international price difference was 933.65 CNY/ton, down 117.06 CNY/ton (-11.14%) [2] - Brent crude oil averaged 68.76 USD/barrel, up 5.52% week-on-week, with prices on June 13 reaching 74.23 USD/barrel [2][13] Chemical Sector - The report notes that the price of polyethylene and polypropylene has seen slight increases, but the price differences remain unchanged [1] - EVA prices are under pressure due to weak downstream demand, with the average price at 10957.14 CNY/ton, down 42.86 CNY/ton [49] - Pure benzene prices increased slightly, averaging 5978.57 CNY/ton, but the price difference narrowed [49] Polyester Sector - The PX price continues to decline due to high domestic supply and weak demand, with the average price at 5833.75 CNY/ton, down 142.37 CNY/ton [85] - The report indicates that the polyester filament market is facing a downturn, with prices decreasing and profitability declining [95] - PTA prices are stable with a slight increase, averaging 4869.29 CNY/ton, while the average profit margin is negative [97] Stock Performance of Major Refining Companies - As of June 13, 2025, the stock performance of six major refining companies showed mixed results, with Hengli Petrochemical up 1.40% and Dongfang Shenghong down 2.26% over the past week [123][124] - Over the past month, the stock performance varied significantly, with Dongfang Shenghong down 10.15% and Hengli Petrochemical down 2.75% [123][124]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Cautious" as the industry index is expected to underperform the benchmark [119] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that oil prices have a weak guiding effect on refining products, leading to a decline in product price spreads [1] - Domestic key refining project price spread is 2495.45 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 10.43 CNY/ton (+0.42%), while the foreign key refining project price spread is 1048.26 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 32.68 CNY/ton (-3.02%) [2][1] - Brent crude oil average price for the week ending June 6, 2025, is 65.17 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week increase of 1.09% [2][1] Refining Sector Summary - Despite a temporary boost in market risk appetite due to the suspension of Trump tariffs, OPEC+ plans to increase production in July, putting downward pressure on international oil prices [1] - Brent and WTI crude oil prices as of June 6, 2025, are 66.47 USD/barrel and 64.58 USD/barrel, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.57 USD/barrel and 3.79 USD/barrel compared to May 30, 2025 [1] - Domestic refined oil prices have slightly increased, while overseas refined oil prices have also seen some upward movement [1] Chemical Sector Summary - The report notes that the recent fluctuations in oil prices have had a weak guiding effect on chemical product prices, primarily due to weak supply and demand dynamics [1] - Polyethylene and polypropylene prices have shown fluctuations, with price spreads declining [1] - The report highlights that the price of EVA has decreased, with transactions primarily focused on essential spot purchases [1] Polyester Sector Summary - Polyester raw material prices have slightly decreased, with improvements in the profitability of filament products [1] - PX prices have seen a slight decline due to increased production from previously reduced capacity and adequate raw material inventory at downstream factories [1] - The report indicates that the average price of PTA is 4857.14 CNY/ton, with an average net profit of -151.35 CNY/ton [84][1] Performance of Major Refining Companies - As of June 6, 2025, the stock price changes for six major private refining companies are as follows: Rongsheng Petrochemical (-0.23%), Hengli Petrochemical (-1.12%), Dongfang Shenghong (-1.06%), Hengyi Petrochemical (-0.16%), Tongkun Co. (+0.28%), and Xin Fengming (+1.10%) [1][106] - Over the past month, stock price changes include: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+3.95%), Hengli Petrochemical (-2.03%), Dongfang Shenghong (-4.55%), Hengyi Petrochemical (-0.49%), Tongkun Co. (-0.18%), and Xin Fengming (+2.04%) [1][106]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [116] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the recent decline in raw material prices has led to an improvement in the price spread of polyolefins [1] - The Brent crude oil average price for the week ending May 9, 2025, was $61.53 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 3.94% [2] - The report indicates that the price spread for domestic key refining projects was 2357.39 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 55.96 CNY/ton (2.43%) [2] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - International oil prices have rebounded slightly due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a downward revision of U.S. oil production forecasts by the EIA [12] - Domestic and international refined oil prices have generally decreased, with domestic diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 6831.00 CNY/ton, 7978.00 CNY/ton, and 5914.00 CNY/ton respectively [12] Chemical Sector - Most chemical product prices have declined, but olefin product prices have shown relative resilience, with price spreads slightly improving [1] - Polyethylene and polypropylene prices have remained stable, with price spreads widening [46] - The report notes a slight decrease in EVA product prices, with an improvement in price spreads [46] Polyester Sector - The report mentions a slight improvement in polyester demand due to easing U.S. tariff issues [1] - PX product prices have decreased, but the decline is less than that of costs, leading to a widening price spread [76] - PTA prices have increased due to supply-side support, with the average price at 4542.86 CNY/ton [82] Market Performance of Major Refining Companies - The stock price changes for six major refining companies as of May 9, 2025, include Rongsheng Petrochemical (+2.88%), Hengli Petrochemical (+2.35%), and Dongfang Shenghong (+2.61%) [103] - Over the past month, the stock price of Dongfang Shenghong has increased by 12.73% [103] Price Spread Analysis - The domestic key refining project price spread has increased by 1.66% since January 4, 2020, while the international key refining project price spread has increased by 11.83% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints The report presents a weekly overview of the large refining and chemical industry, highlighting that oil prices are oscillating at high levels, and filament prices continue to face pressure. It details the price, profit, inventory, and operating rate data of various segments such as refining, polyester, and chemicals, as well as the performance of related listed companies [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **Price and Spread of Key Refining Projects**: The domestic key large refining project spread this week is 2,520 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 43 yuan/ton (-2%); the foreign key large refining project spread is 953 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 19 yuan/ton (+2%) [2]. - **Polyester Sector**: The weekly average prices of POY/FDY/DTY are 6,279/6,493/7,621 yuan/ton respectively, with week-on-week decreases of 114/150/118 yuan/ton. The weekly average profits are -43/-166/-14 yuan/ton, down 104/128/107 yuan/ton week-on-week. The inventory levels are 28.2/30.4/34.5 days, with week-on-week changes of -1.2/-1.5/+0.1 days. The filament operating rate is 93.3%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.6 pct. Downstream, the loom operating rate is 55.2%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.8 pct. The raw material inventory of weaving enterprises is 11.3 days, a week-on-week increase of 0.6 days, and the finished product inventory is 24.7 days, a week-on-week increase of 0.5 days [2]. - **Refining Sector**: Domestic refined oil prices (gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel) declined this week, while in the US, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices rose [2]. - **Chemical Sector**: The average PX price this week is 744.9 US dollars/ton, a week-on-week increase of 9.0 US dollars/ton, and the spread to crude oil is 259.1 US dollars/ton, a week-on-week increase of 2.3 US dollars/ton. The PX operating rate is 77.3%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.9 pct [2]. - **Related Listed Companies**: Private large refining and chemical & polyester filament companies include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Orient Shenghong, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Ltd., and Xin凤鸣 [2]. - **Stock Price Performance of 6 Private Refining Companies**: The petroleum and petrochemical index on April 25, 2025, showed a 1.3% increase in the past week, a -3.5% decrease in the past month, a -2.8% decrease in the past three months, a -12.1% decrease in the past year, and a -7.8% decrease since the beginning of 2025. Among the companies, Orient Shenghong had a 6.9% increase in the past week, while Rongsheng Petrochemical had a -4.2% decrease in the past month, and Hengli Petrochemical had a 4.9% increase in the past three months [8]. - **Earnings Forecast of 6 Private Refining Companies**: Taking Hengli Petrochemical as an example, with a stock price of 15.5 yuan and a total market value of 109 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023A was 6.905 billion yuan, and it is expected to reach 9.303 billion yuan in 2026E. The PE in 2025E is 13.6, and the PB is 1.6 [8]. - **Oil Prices and Refining Spreads**: The average price of Brent crude oil this week is 66.5 US dollars/barrel, a week-on-week increase of 0.9 US dollars/barrel (+1.4%), and a year-on-year decrease of 24.1%. The average price of WTI crude oil is 63.0 US dollars/barrel, a week-on-week increase of 0.7 US dollars/barrel (+1.1%), and a year-on-year decrease of 23.8% [8]. 2. Big Refining Weekly Report 2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends - Analyzes the changes in the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, petroleum and petrochemical, and oil prices, as well as the market performance of six private large refining companies and the weekly spreads of domestic and foreign large refining projects [14][16][21]. 2.2 Polyester Sector - Covers multiple aspects such as the prices and spreads of crude oil, PX, PTA, and MEG, the operating rates of PX, PTA, and MEG, the prices and profits of POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester staple fiber, the inventory levels of polyester enterprises, and the operating rates of filament and downstream looms [23][31][37]. 2.3 Refining Sector - Compares the prices and spreads of refined oil products (gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel) in different regions including China, the US, Europe, and Singapore, with both yuan/ton and US dollars/barrel units [80][90][95]. 2.4 Chemical Sector - Analyzes the prices and spreads of various chemical products such as polyethylene, polypropylene, EVA, styrene, acrylonitrile, PC, and MMA relative to crude oil [135][136][143].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" as the industry index is expected to be in line with the benchmark [119]. Core Views - The report indicates that the market is concerned about demand due to tariff impacts, leading to a decline in refining product prices [1]. - Brent crude oil prices have shown a slight increase, with a weekly average of $65.87 per barrel, reflecting a 2.69% increase [2][13]. - Domestic refined oil prices have generally decreased, while overseas prices have seen some increases [1]. - The chemical sector is experiencing price declines due to tariff impacts, despite cost support from raw materials [1]. - The polyester sector is facing strong demand shocks from tariffs, leading to weak price performance despite some cost support from rising crude oil prices [1]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The Brent and WTI crude oil prices as of April 18, 2025, were $67.96 and $64.68 per barrel, respectively, both up by $3.2 from the previous week [1][13]. - Domestic refined oil prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel averaged at 6995.43, 8172.14, and 6109.00 yuan per ton, respectively, with declines noted [13]. - The report highlights a slight recovery in trade tensions between the US and China, which may support oil prices [1]. Chemical Sector - The report notes that chemical prices are generally declining, with significant price drops in pure benzene and styrene [1]. - Polyethylene prices are under pressure due to supply-demand imbalances, with average prices for LDPE, LLDPE, and HDPE at 9157.14, 7202.29, and 8242.86 yuan per ton, respectively [46]. - EVA prices have seen a slight increase, averaging 11957.14 yuan per ton [46]. Polyester Sector - PX prices have increased to an average of 5292.29 yuan per ton, supported by rising crude oil prices [72]. - PTA prices have continued to decline, with an average of 4310.71 yuan per ton, reflecting a negative profit margin [85]. - The report indicates that the demand for polyester products is weak due to tariff impacts, leading to price declines [1][83]. Market Performance of Major Refining Companies - The stock performance of six major refining companies as of April 18, 2025, shows varied results, with Rongsheng Petrochemical down by 2.31% and Hengli Petrochemical up by 0.53% [106]. - Over the past month, Rongsheng Petrochemical has decreased by 8.65%, while Hengli Petrochemical has decreased by 3.43% [106].

证券研究报告 大炼化周报：国际油价先涨后跌， 长丝市场产销持续低位 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工研究助理：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600123070007 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年4月20日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 2 目录 1. 大炼化周度数据简报 2. 大炼化周报 3. 风险提示 3 目录 ◼ 【国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪】国内重点大炼化项目本周价差为2601.59元/吨，环比-120.02元/吨（环比- 4.41%）；国外重点大炼化项目本周价差为914.45元/吨，环比-20.92元/吨（环比-2.24%）。 ◼ 【聚酯板块】本周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为6393/6643/7739元/吨，环比分别-250/-271/-207元/吨， POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为62/-38/93元/吨，环比分别-111/-125/-82元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为 29.4/31.9/34.4天，环比分别+2.6/+2. ...