智通财经APP获悉，芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比暗示，他对于在美联储12月会议上再次降息仍持 谨慎态度。古尔斯比周四在印第安纳波利斯的一次活动中表示，通胀"似乎已经停滞不前，甚至可以说 有走错方向的警告信号。这让我感到有些不安。" 古尔斯比表示："我仍然感到不安的是，在我们真正看到通胀回升是暂时的证据之前，进行过多的前置 性降息。" 越来越多的政策制定者对在通胀仍处高位的情况下过度降息表示担忧。上月会议纪要显示，在美联储上 次会议上(当时他们连续第二次降息)，许多官员倾向于不在12月再次降息。 这位芝加哥联储负责人称，他的犹豫是针对短期而言，因为他仍听到一些行业的企业表示将进一步涨 价。但他仍然认为中期内利率可以进一步下降。 在印第安纳波利斯活动后向记者发表讲话时，古尔斯比称，在9月份政策制定者最新发布预测时，他预 计今年总共会进行两次降息。他指出，自那时以来经济数据没有太大变化。 今年年初，在特朗普政府宣布大幅提高关税之前，古尔斯比曾表示，美联储官员可能在未来12-18个月 内将利率降至所谓的中性水平，即利率既不抑制也不刺激经济的水平。 在因联邦政府停摆而推迟至周四发布的9月就业报告中，即使失业率上升，招 ...

We are just seconds away from that delayed jobs number. We're watching the futures this morning. They're up sharply ahead of that because of what we heard from Nvidia last night.Dow futures up by about 250 points. S&P futures up by over 80. The Nasdaq now indicated up by about 5 or 425 points.Take a look at what's been happening in the Treasury market. We have seen higher yields. The 10ear sitting right at 415.The 2-year at 361 ahead of all of this. Rick Santelli is standing by at the CME in Chicago. And Ri ...

Core Points - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not release the October jobs report due to a lack of data collection during the government shutdown [1] - The collection period for November 2025 data will be extended, with the new release date set for December 16 instead of December 5 [2] - The Federal Reserve will lack timely jobs data before its last meeting of the year on December 9 and 10, as the last full jobs report was released in early September [3] - Following the BLS announcement, the prediction of a hold in the December Federal Reserve meeting increased from approximately 50% to 66% [4] - The BLS will not publish a separate Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September, including that data in the October report scheduled for December 9 [4] - The government shutdown lasted for a record 43 days, affecting funding and operations across all agencies [4]

本周金银价格重心继续下移，周二，国际金价围绕4000美元/盎司震荡，国际白银价格重心已经下破50 美元/盎司关口。 东证衍生品研究院贵金属研究员徐颖表示，贵金属价格在上周五便开始回调，主要受近期美联储多位官 员发表"鹰派"讲话影响，市场对12月的降息预期明显"降温"，货币政策短期缺乏增量刺激，流动性尚未 快速释放。另外，随着美国政府重新"开门"，关税问题出现边际缓和迹象，美国对瑞士关税从39%下调 至15%，市场避险情绪下降，也对贵金属价格不利。 "如果本周公布的9月非农数据表现较好，下月初公布的11月非农数据也保持韧性，那么美联储确实有暂 停一次降息的空间，后续市场或将进一步交易'鹰派'预期，推动美债利率和美元反弹，并施压金银价 格；反之，如果任意一次月度新增就业意外转负，降息预期可能迅速回升，引发金银价格迅速反弹。" 吴梓杰分析表示。 值得注意的是，近几日美联储多位官员对12月降息持谨慎或反对的态度。究其原因，中信建投期货贵金 属分析师王彦青表示，主要在于美国通胀仍处于高位，且无明确证据表明通胀正回到2%的目标水平。 此外，近期美国政府"停摆"导致的经济数据缺失亦是美联储官员谨慎态度的来源，在缺失决策依据 ...

Market Analysis - Trump said he has selected a candidate for the next Fed Chair, with possible candidates including current Fed governors Waller and Bowman, former Fed governor Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, and BlackRock executive Reid [1] - The "small non - farm" ADP weekly employment data showed that as of the four weeks ending November 1st, the average weekly employment in the US private sector decreased by 2,500. As of the week ending October 18th, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continued jobless claims rose slightly to 1,957,000 [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On November 18, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 932.26 yuan/gram and closed at 918.52 yuan/gram, a change of - 1.18% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 922.54 yuan/gram and closed at 929.84 yuan/gram, a 1.23% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On November 18, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,975.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,699.00 yuan/kg, a change of - 1.96% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,157,926 lots, and the open interest was 322,401 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11,760 yuan/kg and closed at 11,949 yuan/kg, a 2.14% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 18, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.112%, a change of - 2.71 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.55%, a + 1.27 BP change from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes of Precious Metals on SHFE - On the Au2512 contract on November 18, 2025, the long positions changed by - 3,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 619 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 445,767 lots, a change of - 38.50% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions changed by - 1,214 lots, and the short positions changed by 7,720 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous trading day was 1,758,456 lots, a change of - 37.01% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,041.43 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,218 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On November 18, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 5.44 yuan/gram, and for silver, it was - 872.72 yuan/kg [6] - The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on SHFE was about 78.51, a 0.80% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver price ratio was 79.97, a 1.79% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On November 18, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 59,742 kg, a change of - 27.20% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 623,148 kg, a change of - 17.90% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 1,650 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The US employment market is still weak, which may prompt the Fed to turn dovish marginally. The gold price is expected to be in a slightly bullish oscillation pattern in the near term, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 910 yuan/gram and 960 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. Silver and gold are both showing price stabilization, but due to the recovery of risk sentiment, the silver price is slightly stronger than gold. The silver price is also expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillation pattern, with the Ag2602 contract oscillating between 11,600 yuan/kg and 12,100 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver price ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9]

Widely anticipated labor data starts catch-up on backlogged economic reports after shutdown. ...

Core Points - The White House warns that the federal government shutdown may permanently affect the release of the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment data, leaving the Federal Reserve in the dark for decision-making [1][2] - The shutdown, which began on October 1 due to congressional disagreements, has disrupted the Labor Statistics Bureau's data collection and reporting functions, leading to delays and potential inaccuracies in economic data [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy meeting in December may be impacted by the lack of critical economic data, forcing decisions to be made with incomplete information [5] Group 1 - The federal government shutdown has led to significant delays in the release of key economic indicators, including the October CPI and employment data [1][2] - The Labor Statistics Bureau was largely inactive during the shutdown, affecting its ability to provide timely and accurate economic reports [2][3] - The reliance on private sector data, such as that from Automatic Data Processing (ADP), is seen as insufficient to replace the comprehensive data provided by government agencies [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Gold prices are oscillating around $4,100 per ounce after three consecutive days of gains, with an annual increase of over 55% in 2025, the best annual performance since 1979. The restart of the US government brings risk - preference repair, while weak employment data, declining business confidence, and interest - rate cut expectations support the medium - term bullish logic. Although the short - term rebound of the US dollar restrains the increase, the gold price center is still supported [1][3]. - Silver has broken through the previous high to $51.7 per ounce, reaching a new stage high. When gold is consolidating, funds are flowing to more volatile precious metals. The tight situation in the London market has been structurally alleviated, but the spot price still gets support from capital momentum and may further rise if gold prices remain strong and the US dollar continues to decline [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections **Key Information** - US House members ended a 53 - day recess and returned to Washington to vote to end the longest government shutdown in US history [2]. - The Russian Ministry of Finance will issue two types of domestic government bonds denominated in RMB on December 8, with maturities ranging from three to seven years [2]. - As of late October, US companies cut more than 11,000 jobs per week, and the consumer confidence continued to decline [2][3]. - China's Ministry of Commerce stated that the US suspension of the export control penetration rule is an important measure to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, and the two sides will continue to discuss the arrangement after the one - year suspension [2]. **Price Logic** - **Gold**: Gold is consolidating in the short - term high range ($4,100 - $4,150). The restart of the US government will bring a window of intensive data in the next three weeks. Preliminary alternative indicators show weak economic momentum. The decline in business confidence and employment slowdown mean that the downward pressure on real interest rates in the fourth quarter persists, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts has room for further strengthening, so the gold price center is still supported [3]. - **Silver**: Silver has broken through the previous high. The tight situation in the London market has been alleviated, and the supply has been replenished. However, the spot price is still supported by capital momentum. If the gold price remains strong and the US dollar continues to decline, the silver price is expected to rise further [3]. **Outlook** - In the short term, attention should be paid to the first batch of macro - data after the government restart and the speeches of Federal Reserve officials. If employment and business confidence remain weak, the pricing of an interest - rate cut in December may be further consolidated. The gold price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation, with the London gold price in the range of $4,070 - $4,200 per ounce, and the London silver price in the range of $49 - $53 per ounce [4][7]. **Commodity Index** - **Composite Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index all showed positive growth on November 12, 2025, with increases of 0.40%, 0.48%, 0.58%, and 0.44% respectively [44]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On November 12, 2025, the precious metals index rose 0.27% for the day, 3.84% in the past 5 days, - 0.77% in the past month, and 52.03% since the beginning of the year [45].

就业数据公司ADP估计，在截至10月25日的四周内，私营部门每周减少1.1万个工作岗位。而上周的另一个数据系列，ADP则预计10月份私营部门增加4.2万个就业岗位。该数据旨在更接近地复制非农报告。#行情 数据公布后，美元指数DXY短线跳水，非美货币集体上涨，现货黄金小幅走高。 ...

白宫的一个账号在10月24日发帖称，原因是"调查员无法部署到现场——这使我们失去了关键数据。"9 月份的通胀数据在停摆期间发布，低于预期，但顽固地保持在3%左右。 更新的数据发布时间表预计要到政府重新开放几天后才会公布，因为负责监督这些发布工作的官员几乎 都被停薪休假了。悬而未决的问题包括11月份的通胀数据是否也会受到影响。周一早上，一位白宫官员 没有立即回应有关计划以及何时可能重新安排数据发布的问题。 9月和10月的月度就业报告均未发布，普遍的预期是，当政府工作人员重返工作岗位后（最早在本周晚 些时候），首批公布的新数据将是9月份的就业数据。Evercore ISI副董事长古哈（Krishna Guha）周一 在一份报告中预测："第一批劳动力数据——延迟的9月份就业报告——应该在停摆结束后的几天内发 布，尽管10月／11月的数据何时以及如何公布仍不确定。" 华盛顿结束政府停摆的新途径，或许能迅速逆转40天停摆带来的一些经济损失，但政府数据的中断可能 需要更长时间才能恢复正常。市场最密切关注的至少部分信息似乎很可能永远丢失，而一旦联邦工作人 员重返工作岗位，一些关于9月份劳动力市场状况的旧数据可能会很快公布。 ...