Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the current state of the real estate market, suggesting that the rental yield ratio at the bottom of the market should be around 5% optimistically and 7% pessimistically, while proposing a more dynamic formula for reasonable housing prices [1] - There is a prevailing sentiment that the era of real estate investment is over, with predictions of continuous price declines due to high inventory and decreasing population [3][4] - The article emphasizes that housing should be viewed more like a consumable good rather than a long-term investment, highlighting issues such as depreciation and liquidity [3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current inventory in both primary and secondary markets is substantial, and with a declining population, the demand for housing is expected to remain low [3] - The rental yield ratio is criticized as a misleading metric, as it does not account for the depreciation of property value over time [3] - The article suggests that housing prices are unlikely to rebound significantly due to demographic trends, with a specific example from Shenyang indicating a high ratio of available housing to the population [12][13] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The article references specific data from Shenyang, noting a total of 35-40 million housing units available against a population of over 9 million, with a significant portion being elderly [12] - It mentions that the birth rate is low and the death rate is high, further complicating the housing market dynamics [13] - The discussion includes the potential impact of property taxes and maintenance costs on housing demand, suggesting that these factors could further suppress buyer interest [15][16] Group 3: Future Outlook - The sentiment is that the real estate market may experience a prolonged period of decline, similar to Japan's experience in the 1990s [6][16] - There is a call for the real estate industry to focus on quality over quantity, especially during a downturn, to avoid producing subpar housing [17][18] - The article concludes that a true market bottom will only be confirmed after a period of stabilization and potential tax reforms [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the regulations and common misconceptions regarding property tax and urban land use tax in China, emphasizing the criteria for tax exemption and the obligations of taxpayers [4][5][6][7][10]. Group 1: Property Tax Regulations - Property tax is applicable to underground buildings that have housing functions, including those connected to above-ground structures [4]. - Self-built properties are subject to property tax starting from the month following their completion, while properties constructed by commissioned enterprises are taxed from the month after acceptance [5]. - Not all properties owned by exempt units are free from property tax; only specific types of properties are exempt [6][7]. Group 2: Exemptions and Taxpayer Obligations - Exemptions from property tax include properties used by state organs, public organizations, military, and certain religious and cultural sites [7][9]. - Properties rented out by exempt units do not qualify for tax exemption and are subject to property tax [9]. - Urban land use tax is applicable to units and individuals using land in urban areas, with specific exemptions for certain public and agricultural uses [10][11]. Group 3: Tax Calculation and Payment - Property tax is calculated based on the original value of the property after a deduction of 10% to 30%, with a standard rate of 1.2% or 12% based on rental income [13][14]. - Urban land use tax is based on the actual area of land occupied, with specific rates determined by local governments [13][14]. - Tax payments are made biannually, with deadlines in April and October for the respective halves of the year [14]. Group 4: Recent Policy Changes - From January 1, 2023, to December 31, 2027, small-scale taxpayers and micro-enterprises will benefit from a 50% reduction in property tax and urban land use tax [15].

Core Viewpoint - The news regarding the proposed property tax in Dengfeng's Tangzhuang Town has circulated widely, but the official announcement was deleted shortly after its release, indicating potential confusion or miscommunication regarding the tax implementation [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Proposed Tax Details - On October 21, Dengfeng City released a draft proposal for the collection of property tax and urban land use tax in Tangzhuang Town, covering an area of 118 square kilometers and 27 villages (communities) [5]. - The proposed tax rate for land is set at 3 yuan per square meter annually, while property tax is calculated at 1.2% of the property value or 12% of rental income [5][14]. Exemptions and Clarifications - The property tax is specifically aimed at commercial properties and factories, with residential properties being exempt from taxation [5][12]. - The local tax authority confirmed awareness of the property tax news but directed inquiries to the publicity department, which remained unresponsive [6]. Historical Context - Tangzhuang Town has not levied property tax or urban land use tax since its establishment as an administrative town in 2017 [6]. - The earliest mention of property tax in Dengfeng's financial budget dates back to 2017, with an allocation of 18.83 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 62.89% [9]. Legal Framework - The property tax is governed by the "Interim Regulations on Property Tax" and the "Interim Regulations on Urban Land Use Tax," which outline the responsibilities of taxpayers and the basis for tax calculation [7][15]. - Current regulations indicate that personal non-business properties are exempt from property tax, with only specific cities like Shanghai and Chongqing having pilot programs for individual property taxation [11][16].

Core Viewpoint - The article aims to educate new taxpayers about property tax basics, specifically focusing on how property tax is calculated [1]. Group 1: Taxpayer Guidance - The article introduces a series of courses titled "First Lesson for New Taxpayers" to help them understand property tax [1]. - It emphasizes the importance of understanding tax obligations and provides a structured approach to learning about property tax [1]. Group 2: Tax Filing Process - Individual business owners are guided on how to declare their operating income through the natural person electronic tax bureau [8]. - The article details the steps for modifying tax declarations to ensure eligibility for personal income tax reduction policies [9][12]. - It explains the process of confirming tax data and submitting tax declarations, including the verification of income and expenses [10][12].

Core Points - The proposed property tax in Dengfeng City has sparked significant public interest and debate [1][5] - The tax proposal is based on existing regulations and is not a new tax type, as it aligns with the 1986 interim regulations on property tax [5][6] Group 1: Tax Proposal Details - The property tax will be levied on a total area of 118 square kilometers in Tangzhuang Town, covering 27 villages and communities [1] - The tax rate is set at 3 yuan per square meter annually, with property tax calculated at 1.2% of the property value or 12% of rental income [5] Group 2: Public Reaction and Clarification - The announcement triggered concerns among the public, with some viewing it as a new trial for property tax outside of Shanghai and Chongqing [5] - The local tax authority clarified that this is not a new tax but a requirement due to the administrative change of Tangzhuang from a township to a town, making it eligible for property tax collection [5][6] Group 3: Comparison with Other Cities - In Shanghai, individuals renting out properties are subject to a comprehensive tax rate of 2.5% for monthly rental income below 100,000 yuan, increasing to approximately 4% for higher incomes [6] - Similar tax structures exist in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, with Chengdu offering a 0% tax rate for registered rental agreements [6]

Core Points - The article emphasizes the importance of timely declaration and payment of property tax and urban land use tax in Chongqing, with the collection period for the second half of the year being from October 1 to October 31 [1] Tax Knowledge - Property tax is levied on the value of the property after a one-time deduction of 30% from the original value or based on rental income, payable by the property owner [3] - Urban land use tax is based on the actual area of land occupied, applicable to units and individuals using land within specified urban areas [5] - Certain properties are exempt from property tax, including those used by government agencies, military, and non-commercial personal properties [6][7] Exemption Policies - Exemptions for property tax include: 1. Properties used by government agencies, military, and certain non-profit organizations [6][7] 2. Non-commercial personal properties [7] - Exemptions for urban land use tax include: 1. Land used by government agencies and military [8] 2. Public land such as streets and parks [8] 3. Land used for agricultural production [8] Declaration Process - The declaration process involves logging into the new electronic tax bureau and selecting the relevant tax types for declaration [12][14] - If tax source information is not collected, it must be added before submission [15] - There are two declaration methods: confirmation declaration and form-based declaration, both requiring confirmation of tax source information before submission [19][21] Important Reminders - Tax source information can be modified or deleted before submission, and property transfer must be reported to avoid overpayment [21][22] - The deadline for declaration and payment is October 31, and late submissions will incur penalties [23]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a significant adjustment, with a predicted divergence in property values over the next decade, where first-tier cities may see price increases while third and fourth-tier cities may face declines [1][2][4]. Market Conditions - Since the second half of 2021, the Chinese real estate market has shown signs of "declining volume and price," with property prices remaining historically high despite a drop in sales performance by developers [1]. - In major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, property prices remain exorbitant, often exceeding six to seven million yuan, while second-tier cities like Hangzhou and Wuhan require two to three million yuan for home purchases [1]. Future Predictions - Predictions suggest that in ten years, property prices in first-tier cities may drop to around two hundred thousand yuan, while second-tier cities could see prices just above one million yuan, and third and fourth-tier cities may have prices around fifty to eighty thousand yuan [4]. - The expectation is that the real estate market will complete the "bubble-popping" process, aligning property prices more closely with local income levels [4]. Economic Impact - High property prices are currently hindering healthy economic development, contributing to declining birth rates and stagnant consumer demand, which cannot continue indefinitely [4]. - The real estate market has not undergone a significant adjustment in over twenty years, making a return to housing as a necessity inevitable [4]. Government Initiatives - Local governments are actively promoting affordable housing initiatives, including rental and shared ownership options, which will divert demand from the commodity housing market and reduce speculative investment motivations [5]. - The anticipated implementation of property taxes is expected to increase the burden on multiple property owners, discouraging speculative buying and creating downward pressure on property prices [5].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development revealed that there are nearly 600 million buildings and over 800,000 municipal facilities in China, indicating a structural surplus in the housing market [2] - The national housing vacancy rate stands at 21.4%, with severe conditions in third and fourth-tier cities, leading to a stark contrast in real estate value across different regions [4] - Despite the surplus, approximately 200 million people cannot afford to buy homes, highlighting a disconnect between supply and affordability [6][8] Group 1: Housing Market Dynamics - The housing surplus is not evenly distributed, with first-tier and strong second-tier cities maintaining stable prices due to economic advantages, while weaker cities face significant declines in property values [4] - The average price of newly built homes exceeds 16,000 yuan per square meter, making homeownership unattainable for many [6] - The presence of speculative buyers has exacerbated the situation, leading to inflated prices despite the increasing supply [8] Group 2: Policy Implications - The Ministry aims to guide the market towards healthy development by discouraging large-scale land acquisition and construction [10] - Concerns about real estate bubbles are rising, with experts suggesting that future development should align with actual population needs [11] - The potential introduction of property taxes could pressure speculative investors to sell off excess properties, contributing to a more rational market [13] Group 3: Financial Risks - The rise in housing surplus correlates with increasing risks of non-performing loans for banks, as developers struggle to sell properties and repay debts [15] - The tightening of bank loans in response to rising risks could further impact the real estate market and consumer behavior [15] - The interconnectedness of housing surplus and banking risks highlights the broader implications for the economy and individual homeowners [15]

回顾过往，房地产市场曾一度风光无限。经济快速发展让人们钱包渐鼓，"买房保值" 的观念深入人心，不少家庭即便自住需求已满足，仍争相入手多套房 产，2 套、3 套甚至四五套的情况并不少见。炒房客更是借着房价上涨的东风，通过 "快买快卖" 赚取高额利润。但从 2018 年开始，李嘉诚便预言楼市将 "变天"，随后大规模抛售房产；王健林也曾直言 " 没有哪个国家的房地产行业可以保持兴旺发达超过50年，一般来说，20多年就已经到了饱和阶段 "。如今，这些预判正逐渐成为现实，手握多套房的家庭正面临五大难以回避的结局。 从首富预判到现实困境：手握两套房的家庭，或注定5个结局。 在房地产行业，李嘉诚和王健林的判断向来被视为重要参考。前者曾连续 15 年蝉联华人首富，凭借毒辣的商业眼光在地产界立足；后者作为万达集团创始 人，对国内房地产市场有着深刻洞察。如今，两位行业大亨的观点不谋而合，为手握两套房及以上的中国家庭敲响了警钟。 结局一：二手房流通遇阻，"卖不掉" 成常态 过去，城镇化进程推动住房需求持续增长，加上经济繁荣带来的购买力提升，房子不愁卖，甚至出现 "抢购" 现象。但现在市场格局已彻底改变。一方面， 多数家庭已拥有自有 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market continues to experience a downward trend, with the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities hovering around 15,088 yuan per square meter, marking the 23rd consecutive month of month-on-month decline [1] - A staggering 98 cities reported price drops in March, with over 90 cities experiencing declines each month for the past 10 months [1] - The number of second-hand housing listings has surged, with cities like Chongqing exceeding 270,000 listings, Tianjin over 190,000, Suzhou around 177,800, and Beijing approximately 147,000 [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The real estate market is facing a paradox of over 100 million vacant homes while many families with genuine housing needs are unable to afford properties [3][5] - The vacancy rate is reported to be as high as 21.8%, with estimates suggesting that the number of vacant homes could accommodate 300 to 400 million people [3] Group 2: Affordability Issues - In second and third-tier cities, the total price for a 90 square meter property ranges from 1.5 million to 2 million yuan, while in first-tier cities, it escalates to 5 million to 6 million yuan [5] - Local residents typically earn between 3,000 to 6,000 yuan per month, making home ownership a significant financial burden [5] Group 3: Proposed Solutions - Former Vice Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Qiu Baoxing suggests creating a comprehensive mechanism to combat speculative buying and establish a corresponding tax system [7] - The proposed policy framework includes providing affordable housing and shared ownership options to low-income urban families, which could redirect some market demand and encourage speculators to exit [9] - Implementing a property tax or vacancy tax could increase the cost of holding properties, thereby discouraging speculative behavior and promoting more rational use of housing resources [10]