Core Trends - The trend of population migration in China is increasingly evident, with a significant portion of the population expected to concentrate in a few major urban areas over the next decade [1] - This migration is influenced by government policies, such as the new urbanization plan that encourages young people to move to core cities by relaxing residency restrictions [1] Urban Development - Major metropolitan areas like the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are developing as interconnected regions rather than isolated cities, enhancing their attractiveness for residents [4] - Emerging provincial capitals like Chengdu, Wuhan, and Hefei are experiencing rapid growth and offer more opportunities than typical cities, focusing on specific advantageous industries [5] Special City Dynamics - Cities like Hangzhou and Suzhou, while not first-tier, possess unique advantages in specific sectors, making them attractive for professionals in those fields [7] - The influx of people into these cities raises questions about potential housing price rebounds, with core urban areas likely to maintain stable prices due to limited land resources [9] Housing Market Insights - The housing market is expected to experience differentiation, with high-quality properties in prime locations remaining resilient, while average properties may stagnate [9] - Young professionals may struggle to afford homes in major cities, leading to a trend of long-term renting or delayed home purchases [10] Regional Disparities - There is a growing disparity within cities, where different areas may experience varying levels of attractiveness and demand, influenced by factors like new talent policies and aging infrastructure [12] - The concentration of population in a few cities will increase pressure on public services, while areas losing population may face challenges such as aging demographics and reduced consumer spending [12]

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing unprecedented adjustments, leading to concerns among buyers about the potential devaluation of properties [1][7] - Three significant changes are impacting the market: demographic shifts, changes in asset allocation among residents, and supply-side adjustments [1][5] Group 1: Demographic Changes - China's population has experienced negative growth for four consecutive years, with a natural growth rate of -3.16‰ in 2024, and the proportion of the population aged 65 and above reaching 21.7% [1][3] - The decline in population directly correlates with reduced housing demand, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities, where prices have dropped by an average of 5.7% [3][5] Group 2: Changes in Asset Allocation - The proportion of real estate in the asset allocation of individuals under 35 has decreased from 65% in 2020 to 43% in 2025, indicating a shift towards financial and overseas assets [4][5] - A survey revealed that only 37% of young people consider buying a house their primary financial goal, a drop of 28 percentage points since 2015 [4][5] Group 3: Supply-Side Adjustments - The inventory of commercial housing remains high, with a de-stocking cycle of 25 months, significantly above the healthy range of 12-18 months [5][7] - The land market is cooling, with a 23.7% year-on-year decline in land transfer fees across 300 cities in the first half of 2025, leading to increased financial strain on developers [5][7] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Some individuals express pessimism about the future of housing prices, with extreme views suggesting properties could become worthless [7][8] - However, it is argued that while housing may not be a guaranteed investment, it will retain value as a necessity for living, with a more rational and differentiated market expected in the future [8][11] - A significant 72% of respondents in a recent survey no longer view housing as the primary investment choice, focusing instead on its residential function and convenience [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The future of housing prices in China over the next 3-5 years is expected to show moderate adjustments rather than significant declines, influenced by the attitudes of the government, developers, and homebuyers [1][12]. Government Attitude - The government has clearly defined its stance on the real estate market, emphasizing that housing is for living, not speculation, aiming to prevent both sharp price increases and decreases [1][3]. - In the first half of 2025, 85% of 300 cities implemented policies to stabilize the housing market, including easing purchase restrictions and lowering down payment ratios [3][4]. - The government's approach is focused on stability, indicating that the likelihood of a drastic drop in housing prices in the next few years is low [3][6]. Developer Attitude - Developers are experiencing a gradual recovery, with a reported 5.2% year-on-year increase in national commercial housing sales area from January to May 2025, marking the first positive growth since 2022 [4][6]. - The average debt-to-asset ratio of the top 100 real estate companies decreased from 78% in 2023 to 72% in 2025, indicating improved financial health [4][7]. - Developers are shifting their strategies to prioritize profit and cash flow over aggressive sales, suggesting they are unlikely to engage in significant price cuts [6][8]. Homebuyer Attitude - The homebuyer sentiment index rose to 65.3 in the first half of 2025, an increase of 7.2 percentage points from the same period in 2024, indicating a growing willingness to purchase homes [6][8]. - The debt-to-income ratio for households decreased to 62.3% in the first quarter of 2025, down 3.5 percentage points from the end of 2023, reflecting reduced financial pressure and improving purchasing power [7][8]. - Homebuyers are increasingly focusing on the intrinsic value of housing for living rather than as an investment, which is expected to lead to a healthier pricing mechanism in the market [8][12]. Market Outlook - The housing market is anticipated to experience regional differentiation, with first-tier and strong second-tier cities likely to stabilize and recover, while third and fourth-tier cities may continue to face downward pressure [8][12]. - Price fluctuations are expected to be moderate, with annual changes likely to remain within 5% due to the government's stabilizing policies [8][12]. - Overall, the market is becoming more rational, with a shift away from speculative buying towards a focus on housing as a necessity [8][12].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion on real estate in China highlights a significant shift in market dynamics, emphasizing the need for a realistic understanding of the current situation rather than an optimistic outlook on property prices [1][3][7]. Group 1: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The demand for real estate is shrinking, and a return to value is inevitable, as acknowledged by industry experts [3][5]. - China's population has experienced negative growth for three consecutive years, with a decrease of 1.39 million by the end of 2024, and over 21% of the population is now over 60 years old [3][5]. - The peak demand for housing is expected to decline as the last cohort of the baby boom generation born in 1997 approaches 30 years of age [5]. - The imbalance between housing supply and demand is evident, with an average housing area of 43 square meters per person, while the per capita GDP is less than half of that in Europe [5][6]. - The urbanization rate is nearing 70%, limiting future growth potential, and the previous model of demand driven by rural migration is no longer sustainable [5][6]. - The high leverage ratio of over 70% among residents indicates a significant depletion of purchasing power [5]. Group 2: Policy Changes and Market Outlook - There is a fundamental shift in policy direction, with the government focusing on developing the rental market, allocating 2 trillion yuan to encourage local governments to convert existing housing into rental properties [6][13]. - The sentiment around housing prices stabilizing is challenged, with experts suggesting that if individuals cling to unrealistic expectations of skyrocketing prices, they will struggle to maintain confidence [7][11]. - Despite some short-term increases in transaction volumes in cities like Shanghai, the overall price pressure remains unresolved, with a 7.38% year-on-year decline in second-hand residential prices across 100 cities as of September 2025 [11][13]. - The policy focus since 2025 has been on "stopping the decline and stabilizing" the market, aiming to prevent systemic risks rather than inflating property prices [13]. - The ultimate goal is to allow individuals to choose renting over being forced to buy, thereby reducing the burden of housing costs on household expenditures and freeing up other consumption capabilities [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the real estate market in China has entered a long-term adjustment phase, with prices declining significantly since 2022, aligning with Jack Ma's earlier prediction that housing prices would become very affordable [3][4][8] - As of September, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,381 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7.38%, marking 41 consecutive months of month-on-month price declines [3] - In many third and fourth-tier cities, housing prices have dropped to levels where a home can be purchased for tens of thousands to over a hundred thousand yuan, indicating a shift towards affordability [3][4] Group 2 - The article discusses the rising risks in the investment landscape, particularly as bank deposit rates have fallen from 3.05% to 1.55%, prompting individuals to withdraw savings for investment and entrepreneurship [4][6] - Despite various government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, such as lowering mortgage rates and taxes, the article suggests that these measures may only temporarily slow down the price decline rather than reverse the overall downward trend [6][8] - The article warns that the probability of success in entrepreneurship is currently low due to factors such as intense competition, rising operational costs, and a shrinking consumer demand, which has led to a cautious approach to spending among consumers [10]

Core Insights - The future of the real estate market in China is uncertain, with discussions around whether property values will rise or fall by 2030, influenced by various factors such as population changes and economic conditions [1][3] Group 1: Population Changes - Population dynamics are fundamental to housing demand, with a projected birth rate of 7.2‰ and a natural population growth rate of -1.3‰ by 2025, indicating a shift towards an aging society [1][3] - By 2030, over 20% of the population will be aged 65 and above, impacting housing demand, particularly for improved and investment properties [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The real estate market is transitioning from a growth phase to a stock phase, with new housing supply decreasing and second-hand transactions becoming mainstream [3] - The concept that "houses are for living, not for speculation" is gaining traction, suggesting that future price trends will align more closely with income growth [3] Group 3: City Differentiation - There will be significant differentiation among cities, with first-tier and strong second-tier cities likely to see stable prices, while third and fourth-tier cities may experience substantial price declines, potentially up to 30% [3][4] Group 4: Location and Quality - Location will increasingly dictate property value, with core areas maintaining value due to scarcity and convenience, while peripheral areas face downward pressure [4] - Housing quality will become a key determinant of value, with over 65% of buyers willing to pay more for high-quality property services, a 15 percentage point increase since 2020 [6] Group 5: Financial Policies - Housing finance policies are crucial, with mortgage rates declining to an average of 3.85% in September 2025, nearly 1 percentage point lower than in 2020, which may stabilize property prices [6] Group 6: Price Predictions - In first-tier and strong second-tier cities, a property currently valued at 1.2 million may appreciate to 1.4-1.6 million by 2030, reflecting a 15-30% increase [6][7] - In general areas of second-tier cities and some developing third-tier cities, values may stabilize around 1.1-1.3 million, with fluctuations not exceeding 10% [7] - In struggling third and fourth-tier cities, values could drop to 800,000-1 million, indicating a potential 20-30% depreciation [7] Group 7: Market Adaptation Strategies - Buyers should shift their investment mindset to prioritize living needs over speculative gains, focusing on quality and location when purchasing properties [9] - Diversifying asset allocation beyond real estate is recommended to mitigate risks and enhance overall asset resilience [9] - A rational approach to price fluctuations is essential, with decisions based on personal needs and long-term planning rather than short-term market trends [9]

Core Viewpoint - The future of the real estate market is uncertain, with opinions suggesting that not buying a house in 2024 may lead to relief rather than regret in five years [6][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since 2021, the real estate market has entered a prolonged adjustment period, with a significant decline in sales. In the first half of 2024, the national commercial housing sales area was 4.79 trillion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 19%, and sales revenue dropped to 4.71 trillion yuan, a staggering year-on-year decline of 25% [3]. - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities has been falling for 27 consecutive months, reaching 14,653 yuan per square meter in July 2024, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.74% [3]. Group 2: Historical Context - The real estate market in China experienced a boom starting from the housing reform in 1998, with average prices soaring from 2,000 yuan per square meter to a peak of 11,000 yuan per square meter in 2021, representing a growth of 5.5 times. In first-tier cities, prices increased from 3,000 yuan per square meter to 60,000-70,000 yuan per square meter, a more than twenty-fold increase [4]. Group 3: Expert Predictions - Business leaders like Cao Dewang and Li Ka-shing predict that housing prices will likely decrease in the future, indicating that the era of only rising prices is over. They suggest that buying a house in five years may be more advantageous [6][8]. - The predictions highlight a potential reduction in housing demand due to lower marriage and childbirth intentions among the younger generation, alongside a long-term adjustment trend in the real estate market that may still have room for price corrections [8]. Group 4: Government Response - In response to the ongoing downturn in the real estate market, various local governments have implemented measures to stimulate demand, including relaxing purchase and loan restrictions, lowering mortgage rates and down payment ratios, and increasing housing provident fund loan limits [9].

Core Viewpoint - The future of the real estate market in China is expected to see continued price declines, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities, while first-tier cities may stabilize after significant adjustments [8][10][11]. Group 1: Historical Context - The real estate market in China has experienced significant growth since the reform in 1998, with average prices soaring from 2,000 yuan per square meter to a peak of 11,000 yuan, representing a 5.5-fold increase [3]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen saw even more dramatic increases, with prices rising over 20 times [3]. Group 2: Government Intervention - To mitigate drastic price fluctuations, the government has implemented various market support policies, including relaxing purchase and loan restrictions in many cities [6]. - Banks have responded by lowering mortgage rates from 5.8% to 3.2% and reducing down payment ratios to 20% to encourage home purchases [6]. Group 3: Current Market Trends - Since the second half of 2021, the Chinese real estate market has entered a prolonged adjustment phase, with price declines spreading from second and third-tier cities to first-tier cities by 2023 [7]. - In Shanghai, for instance, property prices in central areas have decreased by 30% from their peak [7]. Group 4: Expert Predictions - Industry leaders Wang Jianlin and Cao Dewang predict that the real estate market will continue to adjust, with prices likely to decrease further and align more closely with local income levels [10][11]. - Wang Jianlin suggests that the real estate boom has reached its saturation point after 23 years, indicating a downward trend in prices [10]. - Cao Dewang believes that the era of continuously rising prices is over, and future buyers may find more reasonable prices in the coming years [10]. Group 5: Contributing Factors - The ongoing adjustment in the real estate market is seen as irreversible, with first-tier cities also experiencing price declines, indicating a mid-to-late stage of the current adjustment cycle [11]. - The pandemic has negatively impacted incomes, leading to reduced purchasing power among residents, which may contribute to further price declines even in first-tier cities [11]. - The introduction of 6 million units of affordable housing over the next five years is expected to divert demand from the commercial housing market, further influencing price dynamics [11].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Dingbian County is experiencing significant price increases, contrasting sharply with the declining market in Xi'an, the capital of Shaanxi Province [2][3][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - Dingbian County's new housing prices have risen over 25% in three years, with average prices exceeding 5000 yuan per square meter by October 2025, compared to less than 4000 yuan per square meter in 2022 [2][4]. - In contrast, Xi'an's second-hand housing prices have dropped by 10.1% year-on-year as of September 2025, with a nearly 25% decline over three years since reaching a peak of approximately 16,000 yuan per square meter in mid-2022 [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Factors - Dingbian County is recognized as a major oil and gas production area, contributing significantly to its local economy, with proven oil reserves of 1.618 billion tons and natural gas reserves of 300 billion cubic meters [4][5]. - The local economy heavily relies on the oil industry, which supports the demand for housing despite being a relatively small county with a population of around 360,000 [4][5]. Group 3: Demand Drivers - The demand for housing in Dingbian is driven by two main buyer categories: those purchasing for marriage and those seeking properties in desirable school districts [5][6]. - The influx of families moving from rural areas to the county for educational opportunities has created additional housing demand, contributing to sustained price increases [5][6]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - There is uncertainty about the sustainability of the current price increases, with some local residents expressing concerns that the rapid price growth may not be sustainable in the long term [6][7]. - The limited number of new housing projects in recent years has led to a scarcity of available properties, which has further fueled price increases [7].

Core Viewpoint - The former deputy governor of the central bank, Zhu Min, stated that housing prices are unlikely to rise significantly again, indicating a fundamental shift in the underlying support for housing prices in China [3]. Group 1: Population Structure - The birth rate in China has drastically declined, with the number of newborns dropping from 17.86 million in 2016 to an estimated 9.54 million in 2024, leading to a projected 50% reduction in annual new housing demand over the next 20 years [5]. - The willingness of the 25-30 age group to purchase homes has decreased from 65% to 48% over the past five years, indicating a shift in young people's attitudes towards home buying due to financial constraints [5]. Group 2: Land Finance - The revenue from land sales has halved, dropping from 8.7 trillion yuan in 2021 to 4.87 trillion yuan in 2024, disrupting the traditional cycle of land sales, developer purchases, and bank lending [7]. - The decline in housing demand has led to a halt in the entire real estate chain, affecting local governments, developers, and banks [7]. Group 3: Changing Perspectives - The traditional belief that "having a home means having a family" is being abandoned by younger generations, who are now reluctant to use their family's savings to purchase a home [9]. - The financial burden of homeownership is significant, with a typical family in Beijing needing to gather 1.5 million yuan for a down payment and facing monthly mortgage payments that consume a large portion of their income [9]. Group 4: Economic Implications - There are two conflicting views regarding housing prices: one argues that high prices suppress consumer spending, while the other fears that falling prices will reduce household wealth and consumption [10]. - The government's stance is clear in the "14th Five-Year Plan," which aims to curb real estate speculation and shift focus towards new economic drivers such as electric vehicles and artificial intelligence [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Based on international experiences, it is projected that China's housing market may bottom out around 2027, following a similar adjustment period seen in Japan and the U.S. [11]. - Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai may stabilize by 2026, with expected annual price increases of 3%-5%, while smaller cities may face greater adjustment pressures [11]. Group 6: Long-term Transformation - The transition from viewing real estate as an investment to recognizing it as a necessity will involve challenges, including asset volatility for current homeowners and economic uncertainties for potential buyers [12]. - Ultimately, the goal is to ensure that home buying does not deplete family savings, allowing other industries to thrive and contributing to sustainable economic growth in China [12].