Group 1 - In June, 14 out of 70 major cities in China saw new home prices increase month-on-month, with Shanghai and Changsha leading at 0.4% [1] - Only Xining experienced a month-on-month increase in second-hand home prices, rising by 0.1%, while other cities saw declines [1] - First-tier cities experienced an overall month-on-month decline of 0.3% in new home prices, with Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreasing by 0.3%, 0.5%, and 0.6% respectively [1] Group 2 - Year-on-year, new home prices in first-tier cities fell by 1.4%, but the decline was narrower by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities saw a year-on-year decline of 3%, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreasing by 1.8%, 1.3%, 5.9%, and 2.8% respectively [2] - The decline in second-hand home prices in second and third-tier cities showed signs of narrowing, with second-tier cities down by 5.8% and third-tier cities down by 6.7% [2] Group 3 - Zhang Bo from 58 Anjuke Research Institute noted that first-tier cities have been in a downward trend for two consecutive months, with Shanghai's increase attributed to high-end luxury projects [2] - The real estate market's activity level is low, as indicated by a decrease in the real estate brokerage industry index to 45.2, below the threshold [2] - Policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are expected to strengthen in the second half of the year, with a focus on tailored measures for different cities [2]

国家统计局：6月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.3%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。其 中，上海上涨0.4%，北京、广州和深圳分别下降0.3%、0.5%和0.6%。二、三线城市新建商品住宅销售 价格环比分别下降0.2%和0.3%，降幅均与上月相同。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing significant divergence, with overall new residential prices rising by 2.3% year-on-year, while first-tier cities see a slight decline of 0.8%, second-tier cities drop by 3.1%, and third-tier cities plummet by 4.5% [1] Group 1: Market Trends - In 2024, the newborn population in China is projected to be only 7.41 million, with a total fertility rate at a historic low of 1.09, indicating a potential negative population growth by 2030 [1] - The demand for housing is shifting due to technological changes, with remote work increasing to 115 million people, accounting for 14.7% of the workforce, leading to a decline in demand for urban apartments and a rise in preference for suburban homes [2] - The financial environment remains supportive for homebuyers, with the central bank lowering the LPR to a historic low of 3.35% and first-home loan rates dropping to 3.8% [4] Group 2: Price Predictions - Predictions for property value over the next five years suggest that prime properties in first-tier cities may appreciate by 10-15%, reaching 1.1 to 1.15 million yuan [6] - Strong second-tier city properties are expected to remain stable or see slight appreciation of around 5%, valued at 1 to 1.05 million yuan [6] - Ordinary residential properties in second and third-tier cities may depreciate by 10-20%, potentially valued at 800,000 to 900,000 yuan [6][8] Group 3: Investment Considerations - The rental yield has decreased from 2.1% in 2015 to 1.6% in 2025, indicating that future property value will heavily rely on capital appreciation, which may face challenges post-population peak [5] - The A-share market is currently undervalued, with the CSI 300 index PE ratio at 10.2, below the historical average of 12.8, suggesting alternative investment opportunities [4] - The rapid development of the domestic REITs market, with an average annual dividend yield of 5.7%, presents a more attractive investment channel compared to traditional housing rental returns [4] Group 4: Policy and Market Shift - The real estate market is transitioning from speculation to a focus on residential attributes, with policies emphasizing that real estate should not be used as a short-term economic stimulus tool [10] - Rational assessment of property value and diversified asset allocation, including stocks, bonds, and REITs, is recommended as a strategy to adapt to market changes [10]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China has reached a saturation point, leading to a fundamental shift in supply and demand dynamics, making it unlikely for property prices to experience significant increases in the future [5][7]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The average residential area per person in urban China has reached 50 square meters, indicating a saturation point in housing supply [2]. - The real estate market has seen a shift from a buying frenzy to concerns about property devaluation, with many homeowners questioning the future value of their properties [3][5]. Group 2: Influencing Factors on Property Prices - **Supply and Demand**: Overdevelopment has led to inventory buildup, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities, where population decline and outmigration have resulted in oversupply [5][7]. - **Policy Regulation**: The government is committed to the "housing is for living, not for speculation" policy, with plans to introduce 6 million affordable housing units over the next five years, which may divert demand from the commercial housing market [7][8]. - **Economic Environment**: Slowing economic growth and stagnant income levels are leading to cautious consumer behavior regarding property purchases, which could further pressure property prices [8][10]. Group 3: Market Segmentation - There will be a noticeable divergence in property value trends, with first-tier cities and strong provincial capitals likely to maintain stable prices due to resource and economic advantages, while ordinary properties in less favorable cities may face significant devaluation [10].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has experienced significant fluctuations over the past few decades, with property values in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen seeing dramatic increases, but recent trends indicate a potential decline in prices, especially for properties purchased at market peaks [2][4][6]. Market Trends - From 1998 to 2021, the average national housing price increased from 2,000 to 16,000, a rise of over five times, with major cities experiencing even higher growth [2]. - In Shenzhen, the average price peaked at 70,000 to 80,000 per square meter in 2021, but has since dropped to around 50,000, with some areas falling to 40,000, resulting in significant losses for recent buyers [4][6]. Government Policies - Various government measures have been implemented to stabilize the housing market, including increasing public housing loan limits, lowering mortgage rates, and reducing down payment requirements to 15% [6]. Future Predictions - Opinions are divided on the future of housing prices, with some experts suggesting that core properties in first-tier cities will retain high value, while others predict that properties in lower-tier cities will decline significantly [7][11]. - Influential figures like Wang Jianlin and Li Ka-shing have expressed skepticism about the long-term sustainability of high property prices, indicating a potential market correction in the next five years [9][11]. Market Segmentation - The real estate market is expected to become increasingly segmented, with only about 20% of regions likely to see price increases, particularly in areas with strong population inflows and economic growth [13]. - The overall trend suggests a shift away from speculative investments towards properties that align more closely with local income levels and housing needs [15].

Core Viewpoint - The future of China's real estate market is expected to face significant downward pressure on housing prices, contrary to the predictions of some experts who suggest a supply shortage will drive prices up [1][8]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current real estate market is characterized by an oversupply, with a total unsold residential area reaching 64,835 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [1]. - The ongoing decline in construction and new starts is likely to alleviate inventory pressure rather than signal a future shortage of housing supply [1]. Group 2: Income Levels - Housing prices have become increasingly detached from residents' income levels, with average annual incomes in first-tier cities around 150,000 yuan, making it nearly impossible for families to afford homes priced at 6-7 million yuan without extreme financial strain [2]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Factors - Government policies may provide short-term support to the market, but they are unlikely to reverse the long-term downward trend in housing prices [4][5]. - The Chinese economy is expected to gradually reduce its reliance on the real estate sector, shifting towards a more sustainable growth model over the next five years [6][8]. Group 4: Industry Restructuring - The real estate sector is anticipated to undergo significant restructuring, with high-debt companies facing risks of mergers, reorganizations, or bankruptcies due to the ongoing financial challenges in the industry [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite new policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, the potential for housing prices to rise remains uncertain due to existing demand and supply dynamics [2][10][12] - The State Council has proposed measures to assess and optimize existing real estate policies to stabilize expectations, activate demand, and mitigate risks [3][8] - There is evidence of existing demand for housing, as indicated by a slight narrowing in the decline of new housing sales, with a reported 28,262 million square meters sold from January to April, down 2.8% year-on-year [6][10] Group 2 - Local governments are actively acquiring idle land and existing properties to support market stabilization, with over 430 billion yuan allocated for such initiatives by the end of May [8] - The demand for housing persists, particularly in urban areas, driven by factors such as marriage, education, and lifestyle aspirations, despite current price levels not being satisfactory for buyers [10][11] - The market is characterized by a mismatch between buyers' purchasing power and current housing prices, which may hinder price increases [11][12] Group 3 - The potential for price increases is more likely in the segment of improvement housing, as there is a growing desire for better living conditions among consumers [13] - Core urban areas may see price increases due to population influx, while non-core areas are expected to experience price stabilization or declines due to oversupply and demographic shifts [14][15] - Overall, despite favorable policies, the combination of aging population, declining birth rates, and excess inventory suggests that significant price increases in most regions are unlikely [14][15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market continues to show weakness, with first-tier cities experiencing a decline in new home prices and an expansion in the decline of second-hand home prices. In May 2025, the sales price of new residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with notable declines in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [9] - The current real estate market is in a natural bottom-seeking phase, with low expectations from the capital market regarding the real estate chain. The lack of strong "market rescue" policies has contributed to this sentiment [9] - A decline in real estate data may lead to increased expectations for price stabilization policies. If housing prices stabilize or rise, it could indicate a potential improvement in the fundamentals of the real estate and related industries [9] - Despite the overall demand shock in the building materials industry due to the real estate downturn, there are opportunities for capacity clearance and the release of operational risks among leading companies. Companies such as Sanke Tree (涂料), Beixin Building Materials (石膏板), and Tubao (板材) are highlighted as having long-term investment value [9] Investment Recommendations and Targets - Focus on consumer building material companies that benefit from second-hand home renovations and urban renewal, with significant progress in retail business. Recommended companies include: - Sanke Tree (603737, Not Rated) - Tubao (002043, Not Rated) - Beixin Building Materials (000786, Buy) [4]

Core Viewpoint - The housing market in 70 major cities shows a stagnant trend in prices, with a recent 10 basis point reduction in the five-year LPR mortgage rate from 3.6% to 3.5%, which may lower the cost of home buying but has not significantly increased buyer confidence [1][4][5]. Group 1: Housing Price Trends - In first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, there are mixed results with Shanghai seeing a 0.5% increase and Guangzhou a 0.2% decrease, indicating a potential stabilization in housing prices [5][10]. - The overall trend in major cities shows both increases and decreases in housing prices, but the rate of decline is narrowing while the rate of increase is expanding, suggesting a possible stabilization [5][9]. Group 2: Buyer Sentiment and Economic Factors - A significant portion of surveyed users expressed uncertainty about purchasing homes, with many stating that changes in mortgage rates do not affect their decisions, indicating a saturated market and declining demand for first-time buyers [4][9]. - The disposable income growth rate for urban residents has decreased from 8.9% in 2019 to 4.5% in 2024, with 28% of households having a mortgage-to-income ratio exceeding 50%, contributing to cautious buyer sentiment [4][5]. Group 3: Future Market Predictions - Predictions suggest that first-tier cities may see stable or rising prices due to strong economic fundamentals and population attraction, while second-tier cities will experience significant price differentiation based on economic strength and population trends [10][11]. - Third and fourth-tier cities are expected to continue adjusting downward in prices, although the reduction in mortgage rates may mitigate the extent of these declines [10][11].

今天早上，国家统计局公布了2025年5月份70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况。 从数据来看，全国新房市场寒意尽显，房价上涨的城市越来越少，下跌的城市却越来越多。 与此同时，西安的新房价格也已经连续九个月出现下滑！ 01 全国新房市场降温明显 先来看5月的全国情况，2025年5月70大中城市中，新房价格环比上涨的城市仅13个，较4月的22城减少9城，具 体包括沈阳、上海、合肥、厦门、长沙、南宁、成都、乌鲁木齐、牡丹江、九江、赣州、三亚。 | | 城市 | 环比 | 同比 | 1-5月平均 | | | 环比 | 同比 | 1-5月平均 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 上年同月 | 上年同期 | 城市 | | | 上年同月 | 上生回期 | | | | 上月=100 | =100 | =100 | | | 上月=100 | =100 | =100 | | 北 | 京 | 99.6 | 95.7 | 94.7 | 居 | ш | 99.5 | 93.0 | 92.6 | | ਜੇ | 漫 | 99.5 ...