2026年是"十五五"开局之年，不仅事关当下，更牵动未来五年发展走向。中国经济如何在新起点上落子 布局？全国两会即将召开，外界期待从中获取更多答案。 唱好"稳增长"重头戏 开局关乎全局，起步决定后势。回望"十四五"，中国经济巨轮在风高浪急中稳住航向，一个重要原因在 于始终保持政策定力。以"稳中求进"主基调为锚点，因应形势展开的宏观调控，护航中国经济总量五 年"四连跳"，2025年突破140万亿元人民币大关。 "十五五"时期外部环境更趋复杂，中国经济既要解决老问题，也要应对新挑战。主要国际机构普遍认 为，贸易紧张、地缘政治冲突加剧等因素或对全球经济活动形成更大掣肘。 在此背景下，官方如何设定今年GDP（国内生产总值）增速等发展预期目标、打出有力的政策"组合 拳"，人们期望从全国两会上捕捉更清晰信号。 "解锁"内需巨大潜力 如果说"稳增长"是中国宏观政策的主线，那么"解锁"超大国内市场蕴含的潜力，无疑是政策发力重心。 2021年至2024年，内需对中国经济增长平均贡献率达86.8%，其中最终消费支出贡献率接近60%。去年 底召开的中央经济工作会议提出"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"，继续将扩内需列入年度重点任 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China will implement a more proactive macroeconomic policy to support economic growth, with the highest fiscal deficit levels in recent years and a significant increase in government bond issuance to boost key sector spending [1][2]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for 2025 will feature a deficit rate set at around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year [2]. - The new government debt scale will reach 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year [2]. - National general public budget expenditure is projected to be 287.395 billion yuan, a 1% increase from 2024, while government fund budget expenditure will be 1.129 trillion yuan, up 11.3% [2]. Government Bonds - Government bonds will play a crucial role in expanding investment and addressing shortfalls, with expenditures on special bonds reaching 619 billion yuan, a 37.6% increase from 2024 [3]. - The fiscal policy will utilize a combination of tools, including increasing the fiscal deficit rate and issuing long-term special bonds to support macroeconomic stability and high-quality development [3]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will see a rapid growth in the total financial volume, with M2 growth significantly outpacing nominal GDP growth [3]. - By the end of 2025, the RMB loan balance is expected to reach 272 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of around 7% after adjusting for local debt impacts [3]. - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a package of financial support measures to solidify the economic recovery [2][3]. Support for Domestic Demand - The combination of fiscal and monetary policies aims to boost investment, enhance consumption, and improve livelihoods, with 1.3 trillion yuan allocated for special long-term bonds to support key projects [4]. - The "old-for-new" consumption program is expected to generate sales exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people [4]. Financial Support for Consumption - By the end of 2025, financial institutions have reported applications for 118.4 billion yuan in re-loans to support consumption and elderly care [5]. - Consumer loans, excluding personal housing loans, are projected to reach 21.2 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025 [5]. Policy Integration - In early 2026, the continued issuance of long-term special bonds will support consumption and equipment upgrades, injecting strong momentum into the economy [6]. - The macroeconomic policies will focus on promoting domestic demand through coordinated fiscal and monetary measures [8]. Future Outlook - The central economic work conference has confirmed the continuation of proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies in 2026, emphasizing precision and effectiveness in policy implementation [7]. - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is expected to enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policies and stimulate domestic demand [8].

以科技创新为动力建设体现内蒙古特色优势的现代化产业体系。统筹好传统产业焕新发展、新兴产业发 展壮大、未来产业前瞻性培育， 紧盯国家产业政策调整，充分运用重点产业调控和布局措施，优化产 业布局，研究制定支持未来产业发展指导意见。以"双碳"为引领加快推进全面绿色转型，编制自治 区"十五五"碳达峰行动方案，结合"十四五"续建项目投产、"十五五"新上项目需求等，分析测算碳达峰 形势，一体推进降碳、节能、控煤，着力打造鄂尔多斯蒙苏经济开发区、包头稀土高新区2个国家级零 碳园区。完善因地制宜发展新质生产力体制机制，做好产业技术工程中心优化整合，开展新技术新产品 新场景大规模应用示范行动。 以扩大内需为重点深度对接全国统一大市场。坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，促进消费和投资、供 给和需求良性互动。持续扩大有效投资，发挥联审联批工作机制效能。目前，全区年内开工重大项目手 续办结率达到66%。实施提振消费专项行动，以更大力度推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，清理 优化消费领域限制性措施，营造良好消费环境。推动7个国家物流枢纽、4个国家骨干物流基地提质升 级，实现物流降本增效，为畅通国内大循环提供有力支撑。 （来源：内蒙古日 ...

预计到2035年，中国60岁及以上老年人口数量将超4亿。 春节后的首场国务院常务会议，对抓紧做好春节假期后政府工作作出部署，并研究推进银发经济和养老 服务发展有关工作。 据新华社消息，国务院总理李强2月24日主持召开国务院常务会议。会议指出，我国银发经济潜力很 大，要完善支持举措、强化政策落实，促进养老事业和养老产业发展，为应对人口老龄化提供有力支 撑。 养老服务业既是涉及亿万群众福祉的民生事业，也是具有巨大发展潜力的朝阳产业。截至2025年底，我 国60岁及以上老年人口达3.2亿人，预计到2035年，这一群体数量将超4亿人。 朱克力表示，国常会立足我国超3亿老年人口的基本国情，统筹事业保障与产业发展，既着眼老有所养 的底线民生，又挖掘银发消费的增长潜力，体现出政策从单一保障向"保障+发展"双轮驱动的战略升 级，为"十五五"时期养老领域高质量发展定调导航。 复旦大学老龄研究院院长彭希哲表示，总的来看，此次会议部署实质上是为银发经济和养老服务发 展"搭框架、定方向"，将银发经济发展与养老事业的协同、老年群体权益保障紧密结合。面向"十五 五"，银发经济与养老事业的协同发展将有两个关键方向，一是不断加快构建高效整合 ...

Group 1 - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," which is crucial for both current and future economic development in China [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" saw China maintain economic stability through consistent policy direction, achieving a GDP growth of over 140 trillion RMB by 2025 [2] - The external environment is becoming increasingly complex, with trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts posing challenges to global economic activities [2] Group 2 - Domestic demand is identified as a key focus for policy efforts, with an average contribution rate of 86.8% to economic growth from 2021 to 2024, and nearly 60% from final consumption expenditure [3] - The government is implementing various measures to stimulate consumption, including a new round of subsidies and initiatives to enhance service consumption and diversify consumption scenarios [3] - A strategic plan for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 is being developed to address structural imbalances in supply and demand [3] Group 3 - The Central Political Bureau's focus on future industries highlights the importance of strategic planning in the face of global technological and industrial changes [4] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to promote emerging sectors such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, and sixth-generation mobile communication as new economic growth points [4] - The role of private enterprises is emphasized, with increased policy support to stimulate innovation and development in future industries [4]

Group 1: Market Performance - Hong Kong stocks rebounded strongly after four consecutive declines, with the consumption ETF Huatai (159268) rising nearly 1% and trading volume reaching approximately 600 million yuan [1] - Major component stocks showed positive performance, with Haidilao increasing nearly 6%, Anta Sports rising over 3%, and China Duty Free and Mengniu Dairy both up over 1% [1] Group 2: Policy Developments - Shanghai's five departments issued a notice to optimize real estate policies, including adjustments to housing purchase restrictions and housing provident fund loan policies, effective from February 26, 2026 [3] - A recent meeting emphasized the importance of supporting local and enterprise initiatives to explore new growth points, particularly in the silver economy and elderly care services [3] Group 3: Consumer Trends - During the Spring Festival holiday, domestic travel reached 596 million trips, an increase of 95 million compared to the previous year, with total spending of 803.48 billion yuan, marking a historical high [3] - The consumption sector in A-shares rebounded after three consecutive declines, with the leading consumption ETF (159928) rising over 1% and net inflows exceeding 48 million yuan in the past five days [3] Group 4: Service Consumption Insights - The hotel industry saw a significant increase in revenue per available room (REVPAR) by 30.7% during the Spring Festival week compared to the previous year, driven by strong demand and price stabilization among leading groups [6] - Hainan's duty-free shopping during the Spring Festival saw a 19% increase in spending and a 24.6% increase in visitors compared to the same period last year [7] Group 5: Economic Outlook - The focus on expanding domestic demand is becoming a long-term strategy for China's economic growth, with an emphasis on improving residents' income and enhancing service consumption [9] - Signs of recovery in domestic demand are evident, with consumer confidence stabilizing and an increase in disposable income growth rates [10] - The real estate sector is showing signs of stabilization after years of decline, with recent policy changes aimed at improving market conditions [11]

第一，供强需弱矛盾的形成与长期以来公共资源配置模式和发展路径相关。过去很长一段时期，我国生 产能力相对滞后，地方政府在进行公共资源配置时偏向于扩大投资、提高生产能力，用于社会民生和居 民消费的比例相对偏低。这种发展模式在特定历史阶段推动了生产能力的快速提升，但由于内需增长未 能实现同步，进而形成供需缺口。加入世界贸易组织后，我国深度参与国际分工，融入国际大循环，形 成了市场和资源"两头在外"的发展格局，国内产能通过世界市场得以消化，供需实现了阶段性平衡。当 然，这种主要依托外需实现的平衡，也是一种脆弱的平衡。近年来，世界经济增长动能不足，外部环境 的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性上升。世界贸易组织预测，2026年全球货物贸易量增速为0.5%，大幅低 于历史平均水平。我国是全球第一货物贸易大国，市场和资源"两头在外"的国际大循环动能明显减弱， 外需空间的结构性收缩已经成为长期趋势，但内需增长短期内还难以全面替代或弥补外需收缩产生的缺 口，供需失衡从隐性转为显性。 来源：求是网 为什么会出现供强需弱？回答这个问题，需要结合这些年来我国经济发展实践，认识清楚驱动总供给和 总需求发展的内在机制和影响因素。从生产体系和供给能 ...

用足用好中央预算内投资、超长期国债和地方债券，力争实施总投资75亿元的300个以上新续建项目。 实施国省道提升补短板工程与新一轮农村公路提质行动，开工建设玉树至杂多公路、称多至隆宝公路、 登恩涌及珍秦水库等重点工程；加快玉树至囊谦高速公路、不冻泉站改造提升等项目前期工作，全面推 动重大项目全生命周期管理，持续提升项目工作质效。 围绕特色优势产业，开展产业链精准招商、资金链带动招商、跨区域联动招商，继续在北京、江苏、上 海等重要省市举办推介招商活动，集中要素资源招引落地一批强基础、增动能、利长远的优质项目。持 续优化营商环境，落地各项惠企政策，全年市场经营主体增长10%以上，力争招商引资资金突破10亿元 以上。 本报讯 （记者 程宦宁） 2月24日，记者从玉树藏族自治州政府办获悉，2026年玉树州明确以稳定扩大 内需为核心抓手，通过惠民生、促消费、稳投资协同发力，推出系列硬核举措，持续稳固经济大盘，全 面增强发展内生动力，为高质量发展注入强劲动能。 承接实施提振消费专项行动，优化"两新"政策实施，深入推进县域商业体系建设。支持发展首店经济、 夜间经济，做精做优"新天地"核心商圈，全力打造玉树市区域性消费中心城市 ...

2025年，全国居民人均可支配收入为4.34万元，已达到2010年的3.5倍；比上年增长5.0%，与GDP增速 相当。 不过整体来看，我国居民收入占GDP的比重仍然偏低，2025年仅为43.5%，显著低于60%左右的世界平 均水平，制约着消费潜力的进一步释放。 分省份看，2025年，上海居民人均可支配收入已经率先迈上9万元台阶，北京距此也只有一步之遥；浙 江首次突破7万元大关。 扩大内需已成为我国经济发展的战略之举，提振消费则是实现这一战略的重中之重。 去年底，中央经济工作会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"摆在2026年经济工作重点任务之首， 凸显其关键引擎作用。 消费是收入的函数，当提振消费成为头等大事，居民的"钱袋子"自然成为焦点。此前，国家层面明确要 制定实施城乡居民增收计划，提高居民收入在国民收入分配中的比重，提高劳动报酬在初次分配中的比 重，努力实现居民收入和经济增长同步。 那么，当前发展情况如何？ 居民收入稳健增长 从全国来看，自2023年起，我国居民人均可支配收入增速已连续3年跑赢或与GDP增速持平。 回顾过去，在中国经济高速增长阶段，居民收入增幅曾长期低于经济增幅；近年来，随着我国经济从 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In 2023, the market discussed a peak of 16 trillion yuan in "excess savings," with approximately 76-77 trillion yuan of residential time deposits maturing in 2026, indicating a historical peak[5] - The maturing deposits in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to reach 32-34 trillion yuan, highlighting a significant seasonal pattern[6] - The actual pressure from maturing deposits is limited, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6-10.8 trillion yuan in 2026, corresponding to a growth rate of 14.4%-16.3%, which is lower than the 17.7% growth rate in 2025[6] Group 2: Interest Rate and Asset Allocation - Approximately 25 trillion yuan of high-interest deposits are set to mature, with 32% of the total maturing deposits being two years or older, indicating a core pressure for renewal[6] - The renewal rate for deposits in 2025 remained close to 90%, suggesting that low interest rates do not automatically trigger a shift in risk appetite among residents[7] - The anticipated migration of deposits to other assets is expected to occur slowly and in a dispersed manner, with a potential 10% outflow rate from the 77 trillion yuan in time deposits being a marginal pricing variable for equity and bond markets[7] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Impacts - As of November 2025, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. reached 9.8%, the highest since 1946, with China facing the highest actual tariff rate of 30.9%[9] - The actual tariff increases have significantly impacted trade dynamics, with China and India experiencing the largest increases in effective tariffs compared to 2024, at 20.2 and 17.3 percentage points respectively[10] - Despite tariff pressures, China's export position remains robust, maintaining the largest share of global exports, while the U.S. has shifted its import structure towards North America and Europe[11] Group 4: Economic Recovery and Consumer Behavior - The Chinese economy is shifting focus towards domestic demand as a long-term strategy, with consumer spending projected to account for 56.6% of GDP by 2024, still below developed economies[39] - Consumer confidence is stabilizing, with improvements in disposable income growth and a reduction in the crowding-out effect of precautionary savings on consumption[40] - The recovery in domestic demand is supported by a reasonable rise in prices, which is expected to stimulate consumption and improve corporate profitability[40]