Group 1 - The Thai political turmoil has provided a temporary respite for the market, but underlying economic concerns continue to make investors cautious [1] - The SET index has seen a year-to-date decline of over 20%, making it one of the worst-performing stock markets globally [1] - The Thai economy is facing three main pressures: unresolved trade negotiations with the U.S., delays in the new fiscal budget and economic stimulus plans, and a significant drop in foreign tourist numbers [1][4] Group 2 - As of June, foreign institutional investors have net sold Thai stocks for nine consecutive months, with a total withdrawal of $3.9 billion [4] - The exit of the second-largest ruling party from the coalition government has led to further capital outflows from the Thai bond market, totaling $324 million [4] - Despite a potential valuation opportunity with the SET index trading at a 24.5% discount to its five-year average P/E ratio of 11.7, professional institutions remain cautious due to the dual pressures of political chaos and economic weakness [4] Group 3 - The Thai baht has shown signs of weakness against the U.S. dollar, indicating that market sentiment has not fundamentally improved [5] - The ongoing political deadlock and the need for structural reforms are likely to keep Thailand's economy in a state of uncertainty [5]

Core Viewpoint - Political uncertainty in Thailand is expected to further limit the government's ability to revive the economy, as stated by analysts and economists from Deutsche Bank [1] Group 1: Political Situation - The suspension of the Prime Minister has triggered new political resistance, hindering the government's capacity to respond to external risks through fiscal support [1] - The ruling coalition has lost its second-largest party, resulting in a fragile majority in parliament [1] - Legal issues faced by the Prime Minister and her father may open the door for political opposition and new elections [1]

Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar index has fallen to approximately 97.00, marking a three-year low, driven by uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future decisions [1] - The euro has risen to a three-year high against the dollar, reaching 1.173, while the Swiss franc has hit a ten-year high [1] - The Japanese yen has strengthened as the dollar depreciates, with the USD/JPY rate dropping below 144.00 [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Japan's government plans to lower its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.2% to below 1%, primarily due to global trade risks from US tariff policies [2] - The Australian dollar has appreciated for four consecutive trading days, influenced by slowing inflation data, leading to expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia [3] - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey indicated that interest rates will gradually decline, but the monetary policy will not follow a preset path, emphasizing the need for a restrictive stance until inflation risks subside [5] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies - Market sentiment is driven by three factors: rumors of a leadership change at the Federal Reserve, easing geopolitical tensions, and ongoing trade negotiations influenced by Trump's tariff comments [1] - There is strong demand for put options on the dollar, indicating that traders view the dollar's decline as a key risk to hedge against [1] - Analysts suggest that if the euro can break through the 1.17 level against the dollar, it may pave the way for further gains towards 1.20, supported by a favorable trade stance from US allies [6]

高盛：政治不确定性可能促使泰国央行按兵不动 金十数据6月24日讯，高盛在一份报告中说，泰国央行周三可能会维持政策利率不变。经济学家Hui Shan和分析师Chelsea Song预计，央行将采取"观望"的态度，同时保留其有限的财政空间。他们指出， 国内政治不确定性上升，美国可能在未来几周内单方面宣布关税。根据美国暂时暂停的互惠关税，泰国 将面临36%的关税。高盛仍预计，在今年剩余时间里，泰国央行将再次降息50个基点。 ...

瑞银：受政治不确定性影响，将泰国股市评级下调至中性。 ...

该行指出，日本央行自2025年5月货币政策会议(MPM)以来立场未发生显著调整，核心延续"谨慎观 望"基调。行长植田和男6月3日听证及公开演讲中多次强调，"无强行加息意图"且"无需急于调整利 率"，明确否定"为未来降息空间而提前加息"的市场猜测。 这一表态通过抑制市场对政策转向的过度预期，压低日元利率上行预期。尽管美国宣布降低对华关税， 但央行认为外部贸易环境改善对日本经济的提振作用尚未在通胀与就业数据中充分显现，当前仍需等 待"经济与物价改善的可持续性得到验证"才会考虑政策正常化。 购债计划方面，市场对2026年4月后是否停止购债缩减存在分歧：部分投资者预期央行可能放缓缩减步 伐(如路透6月4日报道提及的"考虑降低缩减节奏")，但植田表态"多数市场参与者支持延续缩减"且"许多 人认为央行从 2026 年 4 月起继续减少购债是合适的"，这些言论或许表明短期内政策转向概率较低，央 行目前并未将停止缩减购债视为主要选项之一。 瑞穗此前预测，日本央行有可能最终将每月购债规模最终降至1-2万亿日元，目前认为最可能的结果 是，央行将试图通过以下方式抑制这一方向：继续以较大幅度削减购债规模(以日元金额计)，同时通过 不 ...

Core Insights - The Swedish central bank's financial stability report highlights significant political uncertainties abroad, which have increased stability risks [1] Group 1 - The report emphasizes that overseas political uncertainties are a major concern for financial stability [1] - It indicates that these uncertainties could lead to heightened risks in the financial system [1] - The central bank suggests that monitoring these developments is crucial for maintaining stability [1]

全球债市28日又迎"煤矿中的金丝雀"时刻，40年期日债拍卖投标倍数创去年7月来新低。财政困境结构 性问题不除，日债美债动荡就难以轻易结束。 40年期日债拍卖投标倍数创去年7月来新低 过去几周来，全球债券收益率一直在稳步上升，而上周，由于投资者对主要发达经济体（尤其是日本和 美国）债务水平的担忧日益加剧，以及日本人寿保险公司等超长日本国债传统买家的需求减弱，日债、 美债的抛售压力突然加剧。在27日短暂喘息后，日债市场28日又面临40年期债券拍卖考验。上周的20年 期日债拍卖需求创下十多年来最弱水平，导致收益率飙升至创纪录高点。 在28日拍卖前，市场就已提前计价。40年期日本国债收益率上涨8个基点至3.365%，30年期日债收益率 攀升5个基点至2.88%，20年期收益率在前一交易日跌至约三周低点后涨7个基点至2.45%。上周，30年 期和40年期日债收益率分别创下3.185%和3.675%的历史新高，20年期日债收益率也创下2.60%的数十年 新高。 最终，40年期日债拍卖认购倍数为2.2，低于上次的2.9，为2024年11月来最低需求水平；投标倍数为 2.21，创2024年7月以来新低，最高得标收益率为3.1 ...

韩国代理财政部长：将尽量减少政治不确定性加剧带来的市场负面影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump has indicated he does not rule out seeking a third term as president, suggesting that many people want him to do so, although he believes it is too early to discuss this possibility [1][2]. Group 1: Constitutional Implications - Trump mentioned that there are ways to bypass the constitutional limit on presidential terms, but this would require significant political support, including a two-thirds vote in Congress or a constitutional convention called by two-thirds of the states [2]. - A proposal has been made by Republican Congressman Andy Ogles from Tennessee to amend the 22nd Amendment to allow Trump to run again, but there is currently insufficient political backing for such a move [2]. Group 2: Political Strategy and Market Concerns - Trump's statements challenge the constitutional limits and may be a strategy to avoid being labeled a "lame duck" president during his second term, which refers to a leader whose influence is diminished due to their impending departure from office [4]. - The potential for a constitutional crisis and political uncertainty stemming from Trump's comments poses unprecedented political risks, which could impact the stability of the U.S. political system and financial markets [4].