Group 1 - Elon Musk announced the formation of a new political party, the "American Party," aiming to challenge the existing two-party system in the U.S. This decision was influenced by the recent signing of the "Big and Beautiful Act" by Trump, which eliminated a $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles, potentially costing Tesla around $1.2 billion annually, or 17% of its expected profit for 2024 [1][2] - The political landscape in the U.S. is historically unfavorable for third parties, with the "winner-takes-all" electoral system making it extremely difficult for smaller parties to gain traction. The Democratic and Republican parties have established strongholds in populous states like California and Texas, making it challenging for third parties to compete effectively [2][3] - Following Musk's announcement, Tesla's stock price dropped nearly 7% in a single day, resulting in a market value loss of $68 billion. Year-to-date, Tesla's stock has declined over 20%, making it one of the worst-performing tech giants [2][3] Group 2 - Investors are concerned that Musk's political endeavors may distract him from Tesla's critical phases in autonomous driving and AI development. The new legislation reducing subsidies for clean energy and electric vehicles could negatively impact Tesla's sales and complicate its relationship with the government [3] - The uncertainty surrounding Musk's political activities poses a significant risk to Tesla's future, as political instability is a major concern for capital markets. If Musk continues to pursue the "American Party" initiative, Tesla's stock may face ongoing pressure [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that despite a general recovery in European financial markets, France is experiencing a decline in investor confidence due to structural political and economic challenges [1][4][6] - France's bond and stock markets are underperforming compared to other European countries, with the CAC40 index showing a return of approximately 6.7% year-to-date, lagging behind the European Stoxx 600's 8.3% and Germany's DAX index's 23.3% [3][4] - The yield spread between French and German 10-year bonds remains around 70 basis points, significantly higher than the 50 basis points before the political turmoil in June 2022, indicating a lack of investor confidence in French assets [2][4] Group 2 - France's public debt reached €3.3 trillion last year, surpassing Italy's by approximately €300 billion, with projections indicating it could rise to about €3.35 trillion by Q1 2025, leading to a debt-to-GDP ratio of 114% [4][5] - The political fragmentation in France has hindered effective fiscal policy, with the government unable to secure a majority in parliament, resulting in a lack of decisive action to address budget deficits [6][7] - Analysts suggest that unless France can implement significant fiscal reforms, investor confidence is unlikely to improve, with some indicating the possibility of needing assistance from the International Monetary Fund if fiscal control is not established [7]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Japanese Senate election poses significant uncertainty for the ruling coalition, with potential implications for market volatility and stock performance as various polls indicate a risk of losing majority seats [1][2][4]. Group 1: Election Impact on Market - Historical data suggests that when the ruling party loses majority seats in the Senate, the stock market typically declines [2]. - The scale of the ruling coalition's loss will directly influence market reactions, with different scenarios outlined based on the election outcome [9]. - If the ruling coalition maintains its majority, Prime Minister Kishida will continue to govern, but the stability of the House of Representatives remains in question [9]. Group 2: Political Stability Concerns - There is a notable concern regarding the potential resignation of Prime Minister Kishida if the ruling coalition loses its majority, which could lead to a more fluid political situation [4][5]. - The probability of Kishida stepping down by 2025 is perceived as significant, reflecting deep market concerns about political stability [5]. Group 3: Corporate Governance Challenges - The election outcome may challenge corporate governance reforms, as left-wing parties oppose current reforms and right-wing parties call for stricter regulations [10]. - Key issues include proposals for increased taxes on large corporations and high-net-worth individuals, as well as a reevaluation of shareholder-focused governance models [10]. Group 4: Trade Negotiations and Economic Policy - The Senate election results will also impact the ongoing U.S.-Japan tariff negotiations, with the ruling coalition likely to avoid making concessions during the election period [11][12]. - If the ruling coalition remains in power, clarity on tariff negotiations may emerge post-election; however, significant changes in government could delay agreements further [13].

Economic Outlook - Thailand's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down to a range of 1.5% to 2% due to political instability and uncertainty affecting domestic economic drivers, particularly exports and government budget spending [1] - The World Bank has lowered its GDP growth forecast for Thailand in 2025 by 1.1%, now predicting a growth rate of only 1.8% due to global economic uncertainties leading to domestic economic weakness [1] - The Thai Commercial Bank's Economic Information Center has also reduced its growth forecast for 2026 to 1.4%, attributing the decline to trade tensions, changes in US policy, domestic economic vulnerabilities, and limited fiscal space [1] Trade and Exports - Despite a 14.9% increase in exports in the first five months of the year, this growth is primarily attributed to a surge in imports before the expiration of a 90-day tariff suspension by the US [2] - If the US imposes a 10% tariff, Thailand's economic growth rate may stabilize around 2%, but an increase to 18% could reduce the growth rate to approximately 1.5% [2] - The Thai Chamber of Commerce predicts that exports may shrink by over 10% in the second half of the year, potentially leading to near-zero growth for the entire year of 2025, which would directly impact manufacturing and employment [2] Political Stability and Investment - The ongoing political uncertainty, particularly with the suspension of Prime Minister Petongtarn, raises concerns about the stability of the current ruling coalition and the potential for government collapse before the next budget is passed [1] - Foreign investors have been net sellers of Thai stocks for nine consecutive months, with a total sell-off of $3.9 billion, reflecting concerns over the political outlook [2] - The performance of the Thai economy in the second half of the year will depend on several variables, including US Federal Reserve monetary policy, a rebound in tourism, and the speed of domestic budget spending [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Thailand stated that concerns regarding political uncertainty have not increased and should not impact government spending and trade negotiations [1] Group 1 - The Deputy Governor emphasized that the current political landscape does not pose heightened risks to economic stability [1] - Government spending is expected to remain unaffected by political uncertainties, indicating a stable fiscal environment [1] - Trade negotiations are also anticipated to proceed without disruption, reflecting confidence in ongoing economic policies [1]

Group 1 - The Thai political turmoil has provided a temporary respite for the market, but underlying economic concerns continue to make investors cautious [1] - The SET index has seen a year-to-date decline of over 20%, making it one of the worst-performing stock markets globally [1] - The Thai economy is facing three main pressures: unresolved trade negotiations with the U.S., delays in the new fiscal budget and economic stimulus plans, and a significant drop in foreign tourist numbers [1][4] Group 2 - As of June, foreign institutional investors have net sold Thai stocks for nine consecutive months, with a total withdrawal of $3.9 billion [4] - The exit of the second-largest ruling party from the coalition government has led to further capital outflows from the Thai bond market, totaling $324 million [4] - Despite a potential valuation opportunity with the SET index trading at a 24.5% discount to its five-year average P/E ratio of 11.7, professional institutions remain cautious due to the dual pressures of political chaos and economic weakness [4] Group 3 - The Thai baht has shown signs of weakness against the U.S. dollar, indicating that market sentiment has not fundamentally improved [5] - The ongoing political deadlock and the need for structural reforms are likely to keep Thailand's economy in a state of uncertainty [5]

Core Viewpoint - Political uncertainty in Thailand is expected to further limit the government's ability to revive the economy, as stated by analysts and economists from Deutsche Bank [1] Group 1: Political Situation - The suspension of the Prime Minister has triggered new political resistance, hindering the government's capacity to respond to external risks through fiscal support [1] - The ruling coalition has lost its second-largest party, resulting in a fragile majority in parliament [1] - Legal issues faced by the Prime Minister and her father may open the door for political opposition and new elections [1]

Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar index has fallen to approximately 97.00, marking a three-year low, driven by uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future decisions [1] - The euro has risen to a three-year high against the dollar, reaching 1.173, while the Swiss franc has hit a ten-year high [1] - The Japanese yen has strengthened as the dollar depreciates, with the USD/JPY rate dropping below 144.00 [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Japan's government plans to lower its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.2% to below 1%, primarily due to global trade risks from US tariff policies [2] - The Australian dollar has appreciated for four consecutive trading days, influenced by slowing inflation data, leading to expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia [3] - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey indicated that interest rates will gradually decline, but the monetary policy will not follow a preset path, emphasizing the need for a restrictive stance until inflation risks subside [5] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies - Market sentiment is driven by three factors: rumors of a leadership change at the Federal Reserve, easing geopolitical tensions, and ongoing trade negotiations influenced by Trump's tariff comments [1] - There is strong demand for put options on the dollar, indicating that traders view the dollar's decline as a key risk to hedge against [1] - Analysts suggest that if the euro can break through the 1.17 level against the dollar, it may pave the way for further gains towards 1.20, supported by a favorable trade stance from US allies [6]

高盛：政治不确定性可能促使泰国央行按兵不动 金十数据6月24日讯，高盛在一份报告中说，泰国央行周三可能会维持政策利率不变。经济学家Hui Shan和分析师Chelsea Song预计，央行将采取"观望"的态度，同时保留其有限的财政空间。他们指出， 国内政治不确定性上升，美国可能在未来几周内单方面宣布关税。根据美国暂时暂停的互惠关税，泰国 将面临36%的关税。高盛仍预计，在今年剩余时间里，泰国央行将再次降息50个基点。 ...

瑞银：受政治不确定性影响，将泰国股市评级下调至中性。 ...