Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in the exchange rate between the Japanese yen and the US dollar, driven by escalating trade tensions between the US and China, and the impact of inflation data on currency trading dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Movements - On April 11, the exchange rate of the yen against the dollar rose to the range of 142 yen per dollar, surpassing the previous high of 143.99 yen on April 9, marking the largest appreciation of the yen and depreciation of the dollar since early September 2024 [1]. - The market has seen an increased tendency to sell the dollar compared to other major currencies due to heightened vigilance regarding US-China trade tensions [1]. Group 2: Trade Tariffs and Economic Indicators - The US announced an additional tariff rate of 145% on China, which is an increase from the previously stated 125% by President Trump, based on a 20% extra tariff that took effect in February and March [1]. - In retaliation, China implemented an 84% additional tariff on US goods, further escalating the trade conflict [2]. - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, which was below market expectations of 2.6%, alleviating some concerns regarding inflation in the US and contributing to the trend of selling the dollar [2].

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 2025年以来"弱美元、强日元"背景下日元相较美元升值4%以上，成为最强G10与亚洲货币。 我们认为年初以来的日元升值来自于欧美投资者主导的基于美日长端息差收窄的交易性因素所导致，而非是基于日本方面的反映真实需求的资金流。 日元升值背后的主导原因：日本通胀→日本央行加息预期加深→日债利率上行→美日息差收窄→投机性资金做多日元 今年以来的日元升值几乎都来自于"非日本交易时间"的贡献，说明更多是海外投资者在做多日元。我们认为海外交易时间做多日元的主要动机来自于看到 了美日长端息差的收窄（美国利率明显下行、日本利率明显上行）。背后的原因在于日本高企的通胀与日本央行进一步加息的预期。 25年1月日本的综合CPI同比高达4.0%，为主要发达经济体中最高的水平，目前的日本通胀由"成本推升"与"需求拉动"共同推动，反映出日本国内高涨的通 胀压力。在此背景之下，我们认为日本央行或进一步加息，终点利率或在1.5%附近。 T正文ext 2025年以来"弱美元、强日元"背景日元成为最强货币 截至2月末，日元相较美元升值约4.4%，升值幅度明显。但是我们需要强调汇率是一个相对的概念，日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current trend of yen appreciation is considered temporary, with expectations of long-term depreciation towards 155-160 yen per dollar due to strong dollar demand and various economic factors [1][3][5]. Group 1: Yen Market Dynamics - Speculative buying of yen has reached historical levels, with net long positions nearly at their peak, indicating significant market interest [2]. - Despite the recent rise in yen value, the appreciation is slow and primarily a correction from previous depreciation levels, with strong non-speculative selling pressures counteracting the trend [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Yen Value - Japan's digital trade deficit has expanded significantly, now exceeding 6 trillion yen annually, contributing to the demand for dollars and limiting yen appreciation [3]. - The interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. remains close to 4%, creating a cost for holding long yen positions, which could lead to rapid liquidation if expectations for yen appreciation diminish [3][4]. Group 3: Purchasing Power Parity and Future Projections - The purchasing power parity suggests a theoretical exchange rate of around 100 yen per dollar, but actual market conditions reflect a more complex scenario with differing valuations for goods and services [4]. - Historical trends indicate that as Japan's production bases have moved overseas, the path for yen appreciation has become less clear, with current depreciation viewed as reasonable under purchasing power parity theories [4][5]. Group 4: Potential for Domestic Yen Demand - There is speculation that domestic demand for yen could increase as Japanese investors seek to hedge against overseas assets, potentially supporting yen appreciation [6]. - However, the current trend of hedging against currency fluctuations is not widespread, and the prevailing sentiment suggests that the phase of significant yen depreciation may continue [7].