上周末，市场出现不少信号。 1、广州竟然开始上调房贷利率； 2、70城房价数据出炉，止跌回稳似乎又进一步； 3、4月经济数据公布。 市场到底什么情况？距离止跌回稳还有多久？ 先来说说，广州房贷利率不降反升的事情。 5月17日，广州宣布首套房贷利率从3.0%上调至3.1%。 很多人认为，广州这是在打压楼市。 但实际上，房贷利率上调，恰恰是楼市托底进入新阶段的信号。 这个时间点真的太巧了。 要知道，5月初基本已经确定20号LPR将会迎来新一轮下调，幅度大概是10个BP。 广州选择现在上调10个BP，很明显就是为了对冲LPR的下调。 当前5年期LPR为3.6%，广州此前执行的是LPR-60个基点，也就是3.0%。 如果本月LPR真的下调10个基点至3.5%，而广州还执行原减点，那房贷利率将降至2.9%。 之前我们就叫停过低于3%的房贷利率，并且银行还有比较大的息差压力，出现防御性上调也是非常合理的。 所以说，这次房贷利率上调，我认为更多是处于维护金融稳定的角度去思考的。 不过这背后，也传递出了3层信号： 1、3%的房贷利率可能已经成为市场共识。 2、未来房贷降息，将以降低LPR为主，加点的降低空间会越来越小； 3、 ...

2.0万元以上 同比上涨 2025年1-4月海南成交均价(新房): 1.5~2.0万元 8442 (元/㎡) 同比下降 1.2-1.5万元 1.0~1.2万元 统计时间: 2025年1月1日-2025年4月30日 制图:海居君 0.8-1.0万元 0.8万元以下 (U) HE 琼中县 定安县 (单位:元/m2) 7336 9182 临高县 自沙县 澄迈县 海口市 文昌市 5512 7979 10020 12901 9763 儋州市 6790 澄迈县 临高县 海口市 文昌市 昌江县 儋州市 定安县 8634 电昌县 昌江县 电昌县 7135 自沙县 琼海市 琼海市 PA 10739 for (10) 琼中县 东方市 7173 东方市 五指山市 万宁市 乐东县 保亭县 万宁市 13380 三亚市 · 乐东县 陵水县 10807 28361 五指山市 保亭县 三亚市 13707 32637 12333 数据爆了！海南楼市"量价齐飞"，热度全面回归？ 不管大家信不信，海南房价，是上涨的！ 海南省统计局最新公布的数据显示，今年1-4月份，海南房屋销售268.3万平方米，同比上涨19%；房屋销售金额约494.7986亿元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current real estate market is experiencing a deceptive appearance of recovery, while underlying conditions remain weak, leading to a situation described as "Schrodinger's recovery" [2] Group 1: New Housing Market Data - In April, 22 cities reported a month-on-month increase in new housing prices, but this is misleading as the overall market remains weak [2] - Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai showed slight increases of 0.1% and 0.5% respectively, while cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen experienced declines [9] - The new housing market is characterized by a few high-end projects inflating the overall statistics, which do not reflect the reality faced by average consumers [10][13] Group 2: Second-Hand Housing Market - The average price of second-hand homes across 70 cities fell by 0.41%, with first-tier cities like Beijing and Shenzhen also seeing declines of 0.6% and 0.3% respectively [12] - Guangzhou experienced a significant year-on-year drop of 7.4%, indicating a substantial loss in property value for homeowners [12] - The second-hand market is viewed as a more accurate reflection of the real estate situation, contrasting sharply with the new housing data [11] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The notion of a "divided market" is prevalent, where high-end properties in major cities are performing well, but this does not translate to overall market health [13] - The previous reliance on population growth and urbanization to drive real estate prices is over, with a new focus on "housing for living, not speculation" [15] - Investors are advised to be cautious, especially in lower-tier cities, as the market is unlikely to return to previous highs, and properties in less desirable locations will struggle to sell [15][16]

每经记者｜刘颂辉 每经编辑｜陈梦妤 "大连4月新房价格上涨可能是短期反弹，受地方政策、市场热度或季节性因素影响，但整体市场仍处于调整阶段。"5月22日，58安居客研究院院长张波通过 微信向《每日经济新闻》记者表示。 5月19日，国家统计局发布4月份商品住宅销售价格变动情况，70个大中城市中，大连新房价格环比上升0.5%，与上海涨幅相同，并列第一。 同策研究院联席院长宋红卫在接受每经记者微信采访时分析，从上涨幅度来看，大连市场并没有出现明显拉涨，主要原因在于前期新房市场下行调整较大， 现在相当于价格有所回调。 "从项目层面来看，优质项目的入市对市场价格形成一定支撑和带动。"宋红卫认为，在此之前，大连的新房市场存在较大的去化压力，但是从去年开始，包 括第四代住宅在内的高品质项目在市场逐步落地，认购量得到提升，市场认可度高，有效地迎合了市场的改善型需求群体。 新房价格涨幅与上海齐平 回顾今年前4个月，大连新房价格在1月份、2月份连续实现环比涨幅0.2%、0.3%，3月份有所下跌，之后再次出现环比正增长。 中指研究院数据显示，1～4月，大连房地产企业销售额TOP10企业商品房签约金额合计约46.97亿元，TOP10企 ...

Group 1: Beijing Real Estate Market - The Beijing real estate market is experiencing a continuous recovery, with both new and second-hand homes showing strong demand [6][7] - In April, new residential sales in Beijing increased by 28.2% year-on-year, with 3,095 units sold [7] - The average price of new homes in Beijing is around 80,000 yuan per square meter, with some prices slightly increasing [6][9] Group 2: Shanghai Real Estate Market - Shanghai's luxury real estate market is thriving, with significant sales figures reported, including 40.25 billion yuan from the sale of 64 units in a single day [10][11] - The average price of new homes in Shanghai reached a new high of 107,746 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 49.25% increase [12] - High-end projects in Shanghai are attracting a diverse clientele, with a notable increase in out-of-town buyers [12] Group 3: Guangzhou Real Estate Market - Guangzhou's first-hand residential market saw a year-on-year increase of 19.3% in sales, with an average price of 39,088 yuan per square meter [14] - The market is characterized by a divide between high-demand central areas and slower sales in peripheral regions [15] - The second-hand housing market in Guangzhou has shown signs of stabilization, with a 12.97% year-on-year increase in sales [16] Group 4: Shenzhen Real Estate Market - Shenzhen's real estate market is witnessing a structural recovery, with a 54.6% year-on-year increase in total transactions [19][21] - The introduction of policies such as housing subsidies and "old-for-new" exchange programs is boosting market activity [19] - The second-hand housing market is also improving, with a 33.5% increase in transactions in April [21]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai real estate market is experiencing a vibrant performance, particularly in new housing projects, although there are notable disparities between urban and suburban areas [1][2]. Group 1: New Housing Market Performance - Several new housing projects in central Shanghai are witnessing strong sales, with some projects offering incentives such as parking space vouchers and group purchase discounts [2]. - Notable sales figures include: - Feiyun Yuefu with a subscription rate of 412%, sold out at launch - Poly Haishangyin with a subscription rate exceeding 230%, sold out - Pudong Lianyuan with a subscription rate around 319%, sold out - Greentown Chaoming Dongfang with a subscription rate close to 160%, triggering a five-year sales restriction, sold out [2]. - The new housing market in Shanghai is showing signs of differentiation, with urban projects performing significantly better than suburban ones [2][3]. Group 2: Second-hand Housing Market Activity - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai is also active, with reports of increased transactions and a stable market environment [4]. - A real estate agent noted that their company achieved over 1.5 million yuan in sales on a single day, a significant increase compared to the usual daily performance [4]. - Data from Lianjia indicates that from the first 18 days of May compared to the same period in April, there was a 5% increase in second-hand housing traffic, a 20% increase in viewings, and a 10% increase in transaction volume [4][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Trends - The stability in the new housing market is closely linked to the active second-hand market, as many homeowners are selling their properties to upgrade, thus maintaining a smooth transaction chain [5]. - The demand for affordable housing priced under 3 million yuan remains strong, serving as a backbone for the market [5].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Guangming District has shown a sustained recovery in April, following a positive trend in March, with significant increases in both new and second-hand residential sales [1][3]. Group 1: New Residential Sales - In April, Guangming District recorded 449 new residential sales, a year-on-year increase of 78% [1][3]. - From January to April, the total new residential sales reached 2,139 units, representing a 148% year-on-year increase [3]. Group 2: Inventory and Market Dynamics - The inventory of commercial housing in Guangming District has significantly decreased, with a depletion cycle of 6 months, the shortest in the city [1][3]. - The overall market activity has been boosted by ongoing urban development, leading to increased visitor numbers and purchase rates [1]. Group 3: Second-hand Residential Sales - In April, second-hand residential transactions totaled 137 units, marking a 144% year-on-year increase [3]. - From January to April, second-hand residential sales reached 403 units, a 125% increase compared to the previous year [3]. Group 4: Price Trends - In April 2025, the sales price of new residential properties increased by 2.7% month-on-month, while second-hand residential prices rose by 0.5%, indicating a stabilization in prices [3]. - The overall trend in housing prices reflects a "stop falling and stabilize" pattern [3]. Group 5: Policy Impact - The national government has introduced favorable policies for the housing market, including increased housing provident fund loan limits and reduced interest rates on existing housing loans, which are gradually restoring market confidence [3]. - It is anticipated that the Guangming District real estate market will stabilize and enter a phase of moderate recovery by 2025 as the effects of these policies continue to unfold [3].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong mortgage insurance market is experiencing a significant increase in both the number of new applications and the total amount insured, indicating a recovery in the real estate market following the announcement of the fiscal budget [1][2] Group 1: Mortgage Insurance Statistics - In April 2025, the number of new mortgage insurance applications increased by 18.4% month-on-month, reaching 610 applications, while the total amount insured surged by 30% to HKD 3.4 billion, marking a seven-month high for both metrics [1] - The number of new mortgage insurance applications has risen for four consecutive months, with April's figures reaching 1,490 applications, a 10% month-on-month increase and the highest in eight months [1] - The total loan amount associated with new applications grew by 7.4% to HKD 7.1 billion, also a six-month high [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Influences - The increase in mortgage insurance applications is attributed to a recovery in the Hong Kong property market following the fiscal budget announcement, with a notable rise in transactions exceeding 50% in March [1] - The proportion of new mortgage insurance applications for first-hand properties rose significantly from 34% in March to 54% in April, driven by earlier transactions of new developments [1] - Despite the positive trends in April, the overall number of new mortgage insurance applications for the first four months of 2025 was 2,169, a decrease of 17.3% compared to the same period last year, with the total amount insured at HKD 11.3 billion, down 18.4% year-on-year [2]

2025年春季，北京楼市的"暖春效应"如期兑现。不同于去年同期市场的低迷观望，今年一季度，北京房地产市场明显回温，多个数据维度均呈现出积极信 号，不仅增强了购房者信心，也为开发商提供了战略调整的新空间。而回暖的背后，是政策、金融、需求等多重力量合力推动的结果，更体现出一个成熟市 场在波动中寻找均衡的能力。 据统计，2025年3月份，单月新房成交量达4968套，刷新近一年以来的单月成交新高。在二手房市场，回暖趋势同样显著。3月份，北京二手住宅成交达 19234套，同比上涨约34.7%。这类交易多集中于交通便利、生活配套成熟、教育资源充沛的板块，这从侧面反映出市场回归理性，"住有所值"成为主旋律。 （数据来源于"房天下北京公众号"） 与此同时，北京楼市的结构性回暖特征日益凸显。优质板块、品牌开发商、配套完备的项目快速去化，形成了强者恒强的马太效应。相比较之下，品质低、 位置偏、配套弱的项目则表现乏力，市场冷热分化愈加明显。以核心学区、近地铁板块、产城融合区域为代表的"抗跌区"持续吸金，成为购房者配置房产的 优选区域。 在楼市回暖的带动下，土地市场亦开始升温。3月18日，北京海淀区一宗宅地经260轮竞价后，以楼面价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in major cities in China is showing signs of recovery, driven by a series of supportive policies and a high level of transaction volume in April 2023 [1][2]. Group 1: Transaction Volume - In April 2023, major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen maintained high transaction volumes for both new and second-hand properties, with Beijing recording nearly 3,137 new homes and approximately 14,066 second-hand homes sold [2]. - Shanghai saw nearly 8,737 new homes sold and over 20,000 second-hand homes sold in the same month [2]. - Shenzhen's second-hand home transactions reached 6,597 units, a year-on-year increase of 33.5%, while new home sales were 2,845 units, up 0.7% [2]. Group 2: Market Trends - Despite strong performance in April, transaction volumes in most cities decreased compared to March, indicating a return to normalcy in the market [3]. - The demand for properties, particularly in the second-hand market, is expected to stabilize, with buyers looking for better pricing and more incentives from policies [3]. Group 3: Policy Impact - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, effective from May 8, 2025, which is anticipated to stimulate demand among first-time buyers [4]. - The adjustment in loan rates is expected to lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by approximately 0.1 percentage points, further supporting the housing market [4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The demand in the real estate market is primarily driven by first-time and upgrading buyers who are sensitive to housing prices and costs [4]. - Various cities are adapting their policies to market changes, such as offering subsidies for home purchases and increasing loan limits for housing provident funds [5]. - The implementation of the national standard "Residential Building Code" is expected to enhance the quality of housing projects, attracting more buyers [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The core cities are expected to see new home sales supported by promotional activities from real estate companies and an increase in quality housing supply [5]. - However, market differentiation remains a key theme, with potential fluctuations in second-hand home transactions as demand stabilizes [5].