交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： PTA&MEG早报-2025年6月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货冲高回落，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，现货基差偏强。少量聚酯工厂补货，本周下周主港在09升水 215~225成交，个别偏高，价格商谈区间在4800~4910附近。6月底主港在09升水210~215有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+217。 中性 6、预期：PTA前期检修装置陆续重启，叠加下游聚酯负荷下调，供需面对PTA支撑减弱，PTA现货价格偏弱震荡，基差方面，短 期内现货市场货源偏紧，现货基差偏强运行，伴随供应回归后续有回落预期。关注PTA新装置投产进度及下游聚酯负荷变动。 2、基差：现货4855，09 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment towards copper is neutral, with short - term prices expected to oscillate at high levels due to factors such as raw material supply tightness, weakening consumption resilience, high near - month contract positions, and increased export expectations [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, supported by inventory depletion but pressured by tariff hikes and seasonal demand weakness [3]. - Lead prices are likely to remain weak as downstream consumption weakens despite potential small rebounds driven by a warmer commodity market [4]. - Zinc prices face significant downward risks due to oversupply and weak terminal consumption, despite possible small rebounds from a warmer market [6]. - Tin prices are supported by supply uncertainties and strong low - price buying demand, with the supply side facing short - term uncertainties [7]. - Nickel's short - term fundamentals show a slight improvement, but the long - term outlook is bearish, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [8]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom as the short - term fundamentals remain unchanged and the inventory pressure persists [10]. - Alumina prices are expected to be anchored by costs, and it is recommended to short on high prices as the capacity surplus persists [13]. - Stainless steel market will continue to be under pressure in the short term due to high inventory, weak demand, and other negative factors [15]. Summary by Metals Copper - Last week, LME copper rose 1.83% to $9670/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78620 yuan/ton. Three - exchange inventories decreased by 0.9 tons, with different trends in each exchange. The import loss of spot copper widened, and the export window for spot feed - processing opened. The short - term price is expected to oscillate between 77200 - 79200 yuan/ton for SHFE copper and 9450 - 9800 dollars/ton for LME copper [1]. Aluminum - Last week, SHFE aluminum closed flat, and LME aluminum rose 0.12% to $2451/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories continued to decline, and the spot basis decreased. The supply increased slightly, and demand weakened. The price is expected to fluctuate between 19800 - 20200 yuan/ton for SHFE aluminum and 2380 - 2500 dollars/ton for LME aluminum [3]. Lead - As of Friday, SHFE lead index rose 0.49% to 16775 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $1990.5/ton. Fed's dovish remarks and strong non - farm data may drive a small rebound, but weak downstream consumption and high inventories will keep prices weak [4]. Zinc - As of Friday, SHFE zinc index rose 0.14% to 22289 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2690/ton. A warmer market may cause a small rebound, but oversupply and weak consumption pose significant downward risks [6]. Tin - Last week, tin prices rebounded from the bottom. Supply may face a 500 - 1000 - ton reduction in June, and smelters plan to cut production. Demand has not increased significantly, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm declines as prices rise. The price is expected to range from 230000 - 260000 yuan/ton domestically and 28000 - 31000 dollars/ton overseas [7]. Nickel - Last week, nickel prices oscillated. Nickel ore supply is tight, nickel - iron prices rebounded, MHP prices are high, and nickel sulfate prices may strengthen. The short - term outlook is slightly better, but the long - term is bearish. The price is expected to range from 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton for SHFE nickel [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC index was flat on Friday, and the futures contract rebounded slightly. The current lithium salt production is high, and the inventory pressure persists. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, with the main contract ranging from 59520 - 61540 yuan/ton [10]. Alumina - On June 6, the alumina index fell 1.36% to 2899 yuan/ton. The import window opened, and the inventory decreased. Due to capacity surplus, prices are expected to be cost - anchored, and it is recommended to short on high prices. The main contract AO2509 is expected to range from 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12680 yuan/ton. Spot prices were mostly stable, and inventories increased. The market will continue to be under pressure due to high inventory, weak demand, and other factors [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On May 20, polysilicon showed a weak oscillating trend, with the main contract 2506 closing at 35,625 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.99%, and an increase in positions by 7,474 lots to 70,536 lots. The price of SMM N-type polysilicon material dropped to 37,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium over the main contract widened to 975 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon fell below the 8,000-yuan mark, with the main contract 2506 closing at 7,910 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 2.53%, and a decrease in positions by 10,324 lots to 64,706 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot decreased by 73 yuan/ton to 9,412 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable 553 grade dropped to 8,100 yuan/ton, with the spot premium widening to 95 yuan/ton. Leading silicon factories in Xinjiang have actively cut production, and the industry is calling for joint production cuts, which will temporarily relieve the supply pressure. However, due to the lack of a reversal driver in demand and the suppression of warehouse receipt pressure, a defensive short strategy is recommended. Polysilicon is facing a structural contradiction between a shortage in near-term delivery and a rapid loss of demand. After the squeezing pressure on the main contract ends, it is inevitable for the price to weaken, and the rebound height will be lower than before [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Research View - On May 20, polysilicon and industrial silicon prices both declined. The main polysilicon contract 2506 closed at 35,625 yuan/ton, down 0.99% for the day, while the main industrial silicon contract 2506 closed at 7,910 yuan/ton, down 2.53% for the day [2]. - Leading silicon factories in Xinjiang have actively cut production, and the industry is calling for joint production cuts, which will temporarily relieve the supply pressure. However, demand lacks a reversal driver, and warehouse receipt pressure is suppressing prices. A defensive short strategy is recommended [2]. - Polysilicon is facing a structural contradiction between a shortage in near-term delivery and a rapid loss of demand. After the squeezing pressure on the main contract ends, it is inevitable for the price to weaken, and the rebound height will be lower than before [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 140 yuan/ton and 110 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon also declined, with the largest decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 100 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 10 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 1,525 yuan/ton and 625 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of N-type polysilicon material and dense material/single crystal use decreased by 500 yuan/ton and 1,000 yuan/ton respectively. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 125 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,200 yuan/ton to 15,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 66,097 lots, while the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 4,770 tons to 331,920 tons. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 90 lots, while the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 210,000 tons to 270,000 tons [4]. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices**: The report includes charts showing the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, price differentials between grades and regions, electricity prices, silica prices, and silicon coal prices [5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The report includes charts showing the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][17][19]. - **Inventory**: The report includes charts showing the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, and the weekly industry inventory, as well as the inventory of DMC and polysilicon [22][23][26]. - **Cost and Profit**: The report includes charts showing the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of polysilicon [29][31][37]. Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have extensive experience in commodity research and provide services to many leading spot enterprises [39][40].

立期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】12925 2025年5月16日 我就必 Z0019144 | PVC、烧碱现货&期货 | | | --- | --- | | 品种 | 5月15日 | | 山东32%液碱折百价 | 2593.8 | | 山东50%液碱折百价 | 2760.0 | | 华东电石法PVC市场价 | 4880.0 | | 华东乙烯法PVC市场价 | 5100.0 | | SH2505 | 2535.0 | | SH2509 | 2567.0 | | SH基差 | 58.8 | | CHOCAL SEDO | 000 | | SH星差 | 58.8 | 224.8 | -166.0 | -73.9% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SH2505-2509 | -32.0 | -161.0 | 129.0 | 80.1% | | V2505 | 4899.0 | 4860.0 | 39.0 | 0.8% | | V2509 | 5041.0 | 4986.0 | 55.0 | 1.1% | | V基差 | -19.0 | -80.0 | 61. ...

IL期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月15日 Z0020680 苗扬 期货收盘价 | 品种 | 5月14日 | 5月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01合约 | 1814 | 1798 | 16 | 0.89% | 元/吨 | | 05合约 | 1900 | 1930 | -30 | -1.55% | | | 09合约 | 1886 | 1897 | =11 | -0.58% | | | 甲醇主力合约 Hm = A / L / A 3 / | 2365 | 2291 | 74 | 3.23% | | 期货合约价差 | 价差 | 5月14日 | 5月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01合约-05合约 | -86 | -132 | 46 | 34.85% | | | 05合约-09合约 | 14 | 33 | -19 | -57.58% | | | 09合约-01合约 | 72 | дд | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - On May 12, polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main 2506 contract closing at 38,450 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 2.49%, and the position increasing by 248 lots to 67,504 lots. Industrial silicon also showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main 2506 contract closing at 8,320 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 0.24%, and the position decreasing by 1,216 lots to 16,900 lots [2]. - There was a small amount of seasonal production increase in the Southwest, and the production reduction progress in the Northwest was slow. The industry inventory was still accumulating. At the current low position of the futures price, it was difficult for enterprises to conduct hedging, and industrial silicon continued to be in a state where it was easier to fall than to rise [2]. - The industry would hold another meeting on self - restricted production and price support for polysilicon, and the release rhythm of planned new production capacity might be postponed. As the delivery period approached, the ratio of virtual to real warehouse receipts for polysilicon was too high, giving room for long - position players to compete. It was necessary to track the meeting results and the movement of warehouse receipts and be vigilant against abnormal risks before the delivery month [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Polysilicon and industrial silicon futures prices both showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend on May 12. The production situation in different regions led to inventory accumulation, and there were potential changes in the production capacity release rhythm due to industry meetings [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased by 20 yuan/ton from May 9 to May 12. Most of the spot prices of different grades and in different regions decreased, with the largest decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The current lowest delivery price decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 80 yuan/ton [4]. - The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 67,338, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFE) inventory decreased by 10,820 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 3,800 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 3,800 tons [4]. Polysilicon - The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts increased by 620 yuan/ton from May 9 to May 12. The spot prices remained unchanged. The current lowest delivery price remained unchanged, and the spot premium decreased by 620 yuan/ton [4]. - The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 20, the GFE inventory increased by 300,000 tons, the factory inventory increased by 0.3 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons [4]. Organic Silicon - The DMC price in the East China market and the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,200 yuan/ton [4]. Downstream Products - The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - The charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and silicon coal prices [5][7][10]. 3.3.2 Downstream Product Prices - The charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][17][19]. 3.3.3 Inventory - The charts show the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [22][23][25]. 3.3.4 Cost and Profit - The charts show the average cost and profit levels in the main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [28][30][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Urea - Despite high daily production, short - term maintenance led to a decline in daily output. The new export policy allows the release of supportive export orders from May to June, and the upcoming summer top - dressing season in May - June is expected to boost agricultural demand. Market price increases are likely to be cautious, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term [3]. Crude Oil - Oil prices continued to rise, driven by the progress of China - US trade negotiations and geopolitical uncertainties. In the short term, the market risk appetite has increased, but no strong trend has been formed yet, and the sustainability of the macro - drive needs to be observed. The monthly - line fluctuation ranges are adjusted to [57, 67] for WTI, [60, 70] for Brent, and [450, 510] for SC [7]. Styrene - Crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium term, putting pressure on chemical products. Pure benzene supply has decreased recently, but overall supply pressure remains due to imports. Styrene downstream demand is weak, and supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy for styrene, with the upper resistance for the near - term contract at 7300 [13]. PE and PP - For LLDPE, although imports are expected to decline significantly from May to June and supply pressure will gradually decrease, inventory pressure is still large under the situation of weak supply and demand, and there is a long - term downward risk. For PP, supply pressure eases slightly during the second - quarter maintenance season, but production is still high, demand is weakening, and there is also a long - term downward risk [17]. Caustic Soda - In the medium - to - long term, the demand for caustic soda from alumina is insufficient, and new production capacity is being added, so the supply - demand outlook is weak. In the short term, caustic soda is in the maintenance phase, and the price has been supported. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy, with the near - term resistance at 2550 [26]. PVC - The supply - demand surplus of PVC is prominent. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are mainly based on price - for - volume. The long - term surplus problem is difficult to solve, and the price is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, but there is a risk of price rebound during the maintenance period [26]. Methanol - The inland valuation has a downward pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are differentiated. The port has entered a stock - building period, and the MTO low - operation rate suppresses demand. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract on rallies [35][38]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Tight supply and short - term strong demand support its price, but the rebound space is limited. PX09 is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and PX9 - 1 is in a short - term positive spread situation [40]. - PTA: The supply - demand pattern remains tight in the short term, and the price is expected to be relatively strong compared to oil prices, but the rebound is suppressed. TA09 is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and TA9 - 1 is in a short - term positive spread and medium - term reverse spread situation [40]. - MEG: Domestic supply is expected to increase in May, but short - term de - stocking is expected due to high polyester load and reduced imports. EG09 is expected to be strong in the short term [40]. - Short - fiber: Inventory pressure is low in the short term, but the driving force is weaker than that of raw materials. The processing fee is under pressure, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [40]. - Bottle - chip: Supply and demand are both strong in the short term, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. The processing fee is supported, and the main - contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 550 yuan/ton [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - The prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts and the methanol main contract all increased, with increases ranging from 0.22% to 1.26% [1]. Contract Spreads - The spreads of 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01, and UR - MA main contracts changed, with changes ranging from - 16.00% to 44.83% [1]. Main Positions - The long and short positions of the top 20 increased, with the long positions increasing by 2.05% and the short positions increasing by 2.51%. The long - short ratio decreased slightly [1]. Upstream Raw Materials - Most upstream raw material prices remained stable, except for the port price of steam - coal in Qinhuangdao, which decreased by 0.78% [1]. Spot Market Prices - Spot prices in most regions increased, with increases ranging from 0.53% to 2.16% [1]. Supply - Demand Overview - Daily production decreased slightly, with a 1.20% decline in domestic daily urea production. Weekly production increased slightly by 0.21%, and factory inventory decreased by 10.58% while port inventory increased by 12.71% [3]. Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased, with increases ranging from 0.34% to 1.34%. Spreads such as Brent - WTI and EFS also changed [7]. Product Prices and Spreads - Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, with increases ranging from 0.53% to 0.71%. Spreads also changed [7]. Crack Spreads - Crack spreads of various refined products changed, with increases ranging from 0.28% to 4.28% for some products and decreases for others [7]. Styrene Upstream - Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. increased, with increases ranging from 0.8% to 2.5%. The opening rates of domestic pure benzene and styrene increased [10][13]. Spot and Futures - The spot price of styrene in East China decreased slightly by 0.1%, while futures prices EB2506 and EB2507 increased by 1.0% and 1.1% respectively [11]. Overseas Quotes and Import Profits - Overseas quotes of styrene increased slightly, but the import profit decreased by 11.4% [12]. Industry Chain Inventory - Inventories of pure benzene and styrene ports decreased, while inventories of some downstream products also changed [13]. PE and PP Prices and Spreads - PE and PP futures prices mostly decreased, and the spreads between different contracts changed. Spot prices also decreased slightly [17]. Non - standard Prices - Most non - standard PE and PP prices decreased or remained stable [17]. Upstream and Downstream Opening Rates - PE and PP device opening rates decreased, and downstream weighted opening rates also decreased slightly [17]. Inventory - PE and PP enterprise inventories increased, with increases of 38.99% and 19.76% respectively [17]. Caustic Soda and PVC Spot and Futures - For caustic soda, the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased by 0.7%. For PVC, the prices of some futures contracts changed, with increases or decreases [21]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The FOB price of caustic soda in East China decreased by 1.3%, and the FOB price of PVC in Tianjin decreased by 1.6% [22][23]. Supply - The opening rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries increased slightly [24]. Demand - The opening rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased [25][26]. Inventory - The PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory increased slightly [26]. Methanol Prices and Spreads - Methanol futures prices increased, and spreads between different contracts and regional spreads also changed [35]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory and port inventory increased, and the weekly arrival volume increased by 12.50% [35]. Upstream and Downstream Opening Rates - The upstream domestic enterprise opening rate increased, and the downstream MTO device opening rate increased [35]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. increased, with increases ranging from 1.0% to 2.5% [40]. PX - related - PX prices and spreads changed, with the CFR China PX price increasing by 0.9% [40]. PTA - related - PTA prices and spreads changed, and the processing fees of PTA also changed [40]. MEG - related - MEG prices and spreads changed, and the port inventory decreased slightly [40]. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - Prices of POY, FDY, etc. increased, and cash flows and processing fees of polyester products also changed [40]. Industry Chain Opening Rates - Opening rates of various segments in the polyester industry chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [40].

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月7日 张晓珍 Z0003135 PE PP价格及价差 | 品种 | 5月6日 | 4月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2505 收盘价 | 7230 | 7273 | -43 | -0.59% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 6987 | 7083 | -96 | -1.36% | | | PP2505 收盘价 | 7105 | 7126 | -21 | -0.29% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | ୧୦୦୧ | 7041 | -46 | -0.65% | | | L2505-2509 | 243 | 190 | 53 | 27.89% | | | PP2505-2509 | 110 | 82 | 25 | 29.41% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7130 | 7200 | -70 | -0.97% | | | 华北LDPE膜料现货 | 7230 | 7300 | -70 | -0.96% | | | 华北 ...