Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The production of lithium carbonate has increased this week, leading to inventory accumulation, and attention should be paid to the fermentation of the mining license renewal event [1][3] - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a neutral view [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Disk Data**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price is 71,920 yuan, the trading volume is 209,645 lots, and the open interest is 160,551 lots; for the 2511 contract, the closing price is 72,300 yuan, the trading volume is 766,669 lots, and the open interest is 289,832 lots. The warehouse receipt volume is 16,443 lots [1] - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2509 is - 820 yuan, spot - 2511 is - 1,200 yuan, 2509 - 2511 is - 380 yuan, and the difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon is 2,100 yuan [1] - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 757 yuan, the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,750 yuan, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 71,100 yuan, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 69,000 yuan, etc. [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 70,949 yuan/ton, up 218 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 7.11 million yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 6.9 million yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [2] 3. Production and Inventory - This week, the production of lithium carbonate is 19,556 tons, an increase of 2,288 tons from last week, and the industry inventory is 142,418 tons, an increase of 692 tons from last week [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a state of complex supply - demand balance. The overall supply is relatively high, and the demand is gradually strengthening. The cost of different raw materials varies, and the profitability also shows differences. The market is expected to shift towards demand - led in the future, with the lithium carbonate 2511 contract expected to fluctuate in the range of 67,980 - 71,260 [8]. - The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Last week, lithium carbonate production decreased by 7.31% week - on - week, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate decreased by 1.08% day - on - day, with a profit of 2,248 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica decreased by 0.61% day - on - day, with a loss of 6,781 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production scheduling enthusiasm is average [8]. - **Basis**: On August 6th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 1,330 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory decreased by 1.00% week - on - week, higher than the historical average. The inventory of smelters decreased by 6.18% week - on - week, while the downstream inventory increased by 7.18% week - on - week [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the main position increased, showing a bearish situation [8]. - **Expectation**: In the future, supply is expected to increase, with production and imports expected to rise. Demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted. The supply - demand pattern will shift towards demand - led, and the lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 67,980 - 71,260 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Lithium Ore**: The price of 6% lithium spodumene decreased by 1.58% to 748 US dollars/ton, and the price of 2.5% lithium mica concentrate decreased by 1.17% to 1,690 yuan/ton [14]. - **Lithium Compounds**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.35% to 70,950 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.36% to 68,850 yuan/ton [14]. - **Positive and Negative Factors**: Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene. Negative factors include continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness to take delivery at the power battery end [9][10]. 3.3 Supply - Side Data - **Lithium Ore**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 17.25% to 427,626 tons, and the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 16.31% to 17,697.62 tons [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production decreased by 1.01% to 141,726 tons, and the monthly production increased by 4.41% to 81,530 tons [17]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The monthly production increased by 2.94% to 25,170 tons, and the monthly net export volume increased by 0.73% to 4,777.73 tons [17]. 3.4 Demand - Side Data - **Lithium Batteries**: The monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 9.70% to 252,200 tons, and the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate lithium batteries increased by 1.86% to 290,700 tons [17]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: The monthly production decreased by 0.16% to 1,268,000 vehicles, and the monthly sales increased by 1.68% to 1.329 million vehicles [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The recent main driver of lithium carbonate is the disturbance at the mining end. Due to the approaching expiration of mining licenses of some mines in Jiangxi and the impact on mining in some African mines, and there is no clear conclusion about the disturbance, the futures market is expected to operate in a wide - range shock [2] 3. Summary by Related Sections Market Analysis - On August 5, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 68,840 yuan/ton and closed at 67,840 yuan/ton, with a daily closing price down 2.39% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 437,207 lots, and the open interest was 232,062 lots (compared to 215,949 lots in the previous trading day). The current basis was 1,400 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 14,443 lots, a change of 1,840 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,600 - 72,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,500 - 69,700 yuan/ton, also down 150 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 745 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Based on the weekly data of the first four weeks of July, the estimated total retail sales in July were about 1.78 million units, flat year - on - year and down 16% month - on - month. New energy vehicle retail sales were 950,000 units, down 14% month - on - month and up 8% year - on - year, with a penetration rate of about 53% - 54% [1] Strategy - The recent main driver of lithium carbonate is the mining - end disturbance. Since there is no clear conclusion about the disturbance, the futures market is expected to operate in a wide - range shock [2] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: None; Inter - delivery spread: None; Inter - commodity: None; Futures - cash: None; Options: None [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The report shows that lithium carbonate is oscillating with a significant increase in warehouse receipts, and its trend strength is rated as neutral [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 68,920, with a decrease of 4,200 compared to T - 5; the trading volume was 247,898, a decrease of 757,497 compared to T - 5; the open interest was 207,770, a decrease of 170,702 compared to T - 5. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 69,040, a decrease of 2,380 compared to T - 5; the trading volume was 288,386, a decrease of 39,459 compared to T - 5; the open interest was 215,949, an increase of 47,213 compared to T - 5 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 12,603, an increase of 5,998 compared to T - 1 and 327 compared to T - 5 [1] - **Basis**: The basis between spot and 2509 contract was 2,430, and between spot and 2511 contract was 2,310 [1] - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 760, with a decrease of 45 compared to T - 5; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,710, a decrease of 95 compared to T - 5 [1] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,350, a decrease of 2,550 compared to T - 5; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,250, a decrease of 2,450 compared to T - 5 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 71,127 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 102 yuan/ton; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous workday; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,250 yuan/ton, also unchanged [2] - On August 4, 2025, Albemarle's auction of 15,732 tons of chemical - grade lithium spodumene concentrate from the Wodgina mine in Australia ended at a price of 810 US dollars/ton (SC6/CIF price) [3] - Yichun Ecological Environment Bureau approved the first - phase project of Fengxin Jiuling Lithium Industry's annual production of 50,000 tons of lithium - ion battery materials on July 30. The project, with a total investment of 1 billion yuan, will build a production line with an annual output of 20,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the first phase, and achieve co - production of rubidium and cesium salts and by - product recovery [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the exchange restricts positions to cool down the market. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. It is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Prices**: On August 1, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - first, continuous - second, and continuous - third contracts were 68,500 yuan/ton, 68,920 yuan/ton, 69,240 yuan/ton, and 69,240 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 500 yuan/ton, 640 yuan/ton, 640 yuan/ton, and 640 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 340,670 lots (- 181,179), and the open interest was 216,103 lots (- 13,265) [1]. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipts were 6,605 tons (+ 1,060) [1]. 3.2 Lithium Ore and Related Products Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China), lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) decreased by 11 US dollars/ton, 35 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 55 yuan/ton respectively compared to the previous day [1]. - **Lithium Compounds**: The average prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic), industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic), and lithium hydroxide (56.5% battery - grade CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) decreased by 650 yuan/ton, 650 yuan/ton, and 0.05 US dollars/kg respectively [1]. 3.3 Other Related Products Prices - **Cobalt - related Products**: The average prices of electrolytic cobalt (≥99.8%, Jinchuan, Zambia), cobalt sulfate (≥20.5%/domestic), and tricobalt tetroxide (≥72.8%/domestic) increased by 4,000 yuan/ton, 100 yuan/ton, and 150 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Other Materials**: The average prices of some cathode materials, anode materials, and electrolytes showed different changes, such as the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) increased by 50 yuan/ton [1]. 3.4 Supply and Demand and Inventory - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased [2]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate decreased, the production of ternary materials increased; in July, the production of lithium carbonate decreased, the production of lithium manganate increased slightly, and the production of power batteries increased last week; in the terminal demand, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued in June, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, the 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in July [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters and others decreased, while the downstream inventory tightened [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The US added 73,000 non - farm jobs in July, far lower than the expected 110,000, and the previous two months were revised down by 258,000 jobs. Traders fully priced in two Fed rate cuts by the end of the year [2]. - Widdcat Resources announced the pre - feasibility study (PFS) results of its Tabba Tabba project in Western Australia, showing strong economic potential [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the destocking process is slow. The medium - to long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market: a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price decline - ore price loosening - further lithium salt price decline" and a stepped - up price increase chain of "futures price increase - production capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" [3]. - The cost curve is flattening due to production process optimization, which drives the central price of lithium carbonate down [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will fluctuate upward in early Q3 due to improved macro sentiment, supply disruptions, and better - than - expected off - season performance; it will fluctuate downward in Q4 as technological upgrades are completed and production increases [3]. - There are positive factors such as improved macro sentiment and supply - side disruptions, and negative factors including high future lithium ore production expectations, continuous inventory accumulation, and technological upgrades delaying capacity clearance [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Futures Price Forecast**: The price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is predicted to be between 68,000 and 80,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 42.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 73.5% [2]. - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 68,280 yuan/ton, down 3.29% daily and 10.95% weekly; trading volume is 521,849 lots, down 34.19% daily and 70.52% weekly; open interest is 229,368 lots, down 15.91% daily and 47.48% weekly. For the LC2511 contract, the closing price is 68,600 yuan/ton, down 2.81% daily and 8.53% weekly; trading volume is 378,788 lots, down 17.16% daily and up 20.72% weekly; open interest is 195,732 lots, up 5.60% daily and 33.12% weekly [8]. - **Futures Spread Data**: The LC09 - 11 spread is - 320 yuan/ton, down 1700% daily and 119% weekly; the LC11 - 12 spread is - 520 yuan/ton, up 189% daily and down 263% weekly [11]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Spot Price**: The average prices of various lithium ores such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone have different degrees of daily and weekly changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,750 yuan/ton, down 1.41% daily and up 5.74% weekly [15]. - **Lithium Salt Spot Price**: The average prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide also show daily and weekly fluctuations. For instance, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 69,900 yuan/ton, down 1.34% daily and up 1.45% weekly [19]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spread**: The spreads such as the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate have different daily and weekly changes. For example, the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a 27.27% weekly increase [22]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Data**: The basis of the lithium carbonate main continuous contract and the brand - based basis quotes of different companies have specific values. For example, the basis quote of Shengxin Lithium Energy for the LC2507 contract is 100 yuan/ton [27]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 5,545, a decrease of 7,586 from the previous day [30]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The report shows the production profit from purchasing lithium ore, theoretical delivery profit, and import profit of lithium carbonate, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary requirements [33]. 3.5 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high product inventory and concerns about inventory impairment, it is recommended to short 50% of lithium carbonate futures (LC2511) to lock in profits, sell 50% of call options, and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For companies with future procurement plans and concerns about raw material price increases, it is recommended to buy far - month lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The current lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market. In the price decline cycle, there is a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price drop - ore price decline - lithium salt price drop again". When the futures rebound due to macro expectations and supply - side disturbances, a "step - by - step" upward chain of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" is formed [3]. - The cost curve is flattening due to production process optimization, which drives the downward shift of the lithium carbonate price center [3]. - In the second half of the year, the futures market is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will fluctuate upward at the beginning of the third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disturbances, and better - than - expected off - season performance; in the fourth quarter, the futures price is expected to fluctuate downward as technological transformation is completed and production is concentrated [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is predicted to be between 68,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 42.2% and a historical percentile of 73.5% over three years [2]. - **Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 70,600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan (-0.34%) from the previous day and up 1,220 yuan (1.76%) from the previous week. The trading volume is 792,909 lots, up 48,749 lots (6.55%) from the previous day and down 541,250 lots (-40.57%) from the previous week. The open interest is 272,753 lots, down 27,867 lots (-9.27%) from the previous day and down 89,301 lots (-24.67%) from the previous week [8]. - **Month - spread Data**: The LC09 - 11 month - spread is 280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 480 yuan (-63%) from the previous week. The LC11 - 12 month - spread is - 180 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 yuan (13%) from the previous week [11]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,775 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan (10.59%) from the previous week; the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 5 - 5.5%) is 5,735 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan (-1.55%) from the previous day and up 275 yuan (5.04%) from the previous week. The average price of lithium spodumene (Li₂O: 6%, Brazilian CIF) is 780 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars (1.96%) from the previous week [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan (-0.21%) from the previous day and up 2,050 yuan (2.98%) from the previous week. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,950 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan (-0.27%) from the previous day and up 2,500 yuan (3.55%) from the previous week [18]. - **Price Spread**: The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (-2.33%) from the previous day and up 450 yuan (27.27%) from the previous week [21]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis data of lithium carbonate shows different values for different brands. For example, the basis of Shengxin Lithium Energy (LI₂CO₃≥99.8%, LC2507) is 100 yuan [26]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 12,276, unchanged from the previous day. Some warehouses, such as Wugang Wuxi and Jiangsu Bennigang Port, had a decrease in warehouse receipts [29][30]. 3.4 Cost and Profit The report shows the production profit of purchasing lithium ore externally, theoretical delivery profit, and import profit of lithium carbonate, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary part of this output [32]. 3.5 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventory and fear of inventory impairment, it is recommended to short lithium carbonate futures (LC2511) to lock in finished - product profits at a recommended ratio of 50%, sell call options, and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future procurement plans and fear of raw material price increases, it is recommended to buy long - term lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [2][3] 2. Report's Core View - The sentiment of lithium carbonate futures and spot markets fluctuates greatly, and the divergence between buyers and sellers in the spot market is large. The market is easily influenced by news. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. It is recommended to buy double - straddle options [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures Market**: On July 29, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a medium - low level. The trading volume was 744,160 lots (-261,235), and the open interest was 300,620 lots (-77,852). The prices of most contracts decreased, and the spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was -1,420 yuan, a decrease of 380 yuan compared with the previous day [3] - **Spot Market**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price (basis) was 780 yuan, an increase of 1,530 yuan compared with the previous day. The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and different grades of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc., all showed different degrees of change [3] 3.2 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased [3] - **Downstream Demand**: Last week, the production scheduling of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased; in June, the production scheduling of lithium cobaltate and lithium manganate decreased. Last week, the production of power batteries increased. In terms of terminal demand, in June, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production scheduling of energy - storage batteries increased in June [3] 3.3 Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 12,276 tons (unchanged), the social inventory was destocked, the smelters destocked, and the downstream and other inventories changed [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand relationship of lithium carbonate shows a situation of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [8][11]. - The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 69,400 - 72,280 [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: Last week, the output of lithium carbonate was 18,630 tons, 53% higher than the historical average level. It is predicted that the output in the next month will increase to 81,150 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.92%. The import volume in June 2025 was 17,698 physical tons, and it is predicted that the import volume in the next month will be 22,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.31% [8]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,878 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17%. The inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 16,552 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.40%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen in the next month, and the inventory may be depleted [8]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 69,611 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 2.47%, with a production profit of 2,489 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lepidolite was 77,138 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.59%, with a production loss of 6,968 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Market Indicators**: On July 29, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 2,310 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The overall inventory was 143,170 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%, higher than the historical average level. The MA20 of the market trend is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20. The net short position of the main contract decreased [8]. - **Leverage Factors**: Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [9][10]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different degrees of changes, such as a 1.61% increase in the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate, a 1.73% increase in the price of (electric - industrial) lithium carbonate, and a 0.44% increase in the price of micronized lithium hydroxide [13]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: On the supply side, the weekly operating rate decreased by 0.80%, the daily production cost of spodumene decreased by 2.47%, and the monthly processing cost decreased by 2.89%. On the demand side, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 2.09%, and the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1.24% [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore showed a certain trend of change over time, and the production of lithium ore in China's sample spodumene mines and the total output of domestic lepidolite also showed different trends in different years [24]. - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate showed fluctuations, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also changed over time [24]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore from June 2024 to June 2025 showed different situations, with some months in short supply and some months in surplus [27]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly operating rate and weekly output of lithium carbonate from different sources (spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, and recycled materials) showed different trends. The monthly output and monthly capacity of lithium carbonate also changed over time [30]. - **Import and Recycling**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) and the monthly recycling volume of waste lithium - ion batteries also showed different trends [30][31]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from June 2024 to June 2025 showed different situations, with some months in surplus and some months in short supply [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide, the monthly operating rate from different sources (causticization and smelting), and the production volume showed different trends [37]. - **Export Volume**: The export volume of lithium hydroxide in China from 2019 to 2025 showed different trends [37]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide from June 2024 to June 2025 showed different situations, with some months in surplus and some months in short supply [40]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The production cost and profit of lithium compounds produced from different raw materials (spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, recycled materials, etc.) showed different trends over time [43][46]. - **Processing and Purification Profit**: The processing profit between different types of lithium hydroxide (coarse - grained and micronized) and the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also showed different trends [46][49]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate from different sources (smelters, downstream, and others) showed different trends [51]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelters and downstream) also showed different trends [51]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Battery Price and Output**: The price of batteries, the monthly output of battery cells, the monthly power battery loading volume, and the monthly power battery cell shipment volume showed different trends [55]. - **Battery Export and Inventory**: The export volume of lithium batteries and the inventory of battery cells also showed different trends [55][58]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary precursors, the cost - profit of 523 (polycrystalline/consumer) ternary precursors, and the processing fee showed different trends [61]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The monthly output of ternary precursors and the capacity utilization rate also showed different trends [61]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors from June 2024 to June 2025 showed different situations, with some months in surplus and some months in short supply [64]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary materials, the cost - profit trend, and the processing fee showed different trends [67][69]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production volume, export volume, import volume, and weekly inventory of ternary materials also showed different trends [67][69]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium, the production cost of iron phosphate, and the cost - profit of iron phosphate lithium showed different trends [71]. - **Production and Inventory**: The monthly output, monthly export volume, and weekly inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium also showed different trends [74][76]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production volume, sales volume, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends [79][80]. - **Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles in the Passenger Car Association and the monthly dealer inventory warning index and inventory index also showed different trends [83].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Core Viewpoints - The recent strong rise in the lithium carbonate futures market is mainly driven by mine - end disturbance news, including issues with lithium mica mines in Jiangxi and the suspension of salt lake mining by some companies. The uncertainty of lithium resource mining approvals and strong macro - commodity sentiment have led to the rise. If there are more domestic resource shutdowns, the supply - demand pattern may reverse. The short - term futures market may be strongly influenced by capital sentiment and policies [3] Market Analysis - On July 24, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2509 opened at 70,180 yuan/ton and closed at 76,680 yuan/ton, with a 7.21% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,770,283 lots, and the open interest was 436,727 lots (362,054 lots the previous day). The current basis is - 690 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 11,654 lots, a change of 900 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 69,200 - 71,900 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 68,400 - 69,400 yuan/ton, also a 100 - yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 790 US dollars/ton, a 20 - dollar/ton change from the previous day. Due to the high price being unacceptable to downstream enterprises, the procurement willingness is weak, and the overall trading volume is light [1] Inventory and Production - The latest total inventory is 142,620 tons (140,793 tons in the previous period), including 58,039 tons in smelters (58,598 tons in the previous period), 41,271 tons in downstream inventories (40,765 tons in the previous period), and 43,310 tons in other inventories (41,430 tons in the previous period) [2] - The latest weekly total production is 18,630 tons (19,115 tons in the previous period), including 9,324 tons of lithium carbonate produced from pyroxene (8,994 tons in the previous period), 5,100 tons from mica (5,075 tons in the previous period), 3,282 tons from salt lakes (3,265 tons in the previous period), and 1,409 tons from recycled materials (1,479 tons in the previous period) [2] Strategy - **Unilateral**: None [3] - **Inter - period**: None [4] - **Inter - variety**: None [4] - **Spot - futures**: None [4] - **Options**: None [4]