大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2025年12月1日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为21865吨，环比减少1.19%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为104341吨，环比增加1.71%,上周三元材料样本企业 库存为19361吨，环比增加0.37%。 供给端，2025年10月碳酸锂产量为92260实物吨，预测下月产量为92080实物吨，环比减少 0.19%,2025年10月碳酸锂进口量为23881实物吨，预测下月进口量为27000实物吨，环比增加 13.06%。需求端，预计下月需求有所强化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CIF价格日度 环比有所增长，低于历史同期平均水平，需求持 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 30 日 碳酸锂：需求季节性走弱叠加大厂复产加速， 上方承压 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi020696@gtjas.com 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 liuhongru028781@gtjas.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：重心上移，高波动延续 碳酸锂期货合约本周延续高波动趋势，整体重心有所上移。2601 合约收于 94640 元/吨，周环比上涨 3620 元/吨，2605 合约收于 96420 元/吨，周环比上涨 4460 元/吨，现货周环比上涨 1450 元/吨至 93750 元/吨。SMM 期现基差（2601 合约）下跌 2170 元/吨至-890 元/吨，富宝贸易商升贴水报价-1200 元/吨， 周环比下跌 740 元/吨。2601-2605 合约价差-1780 元/吨，环比走弱-840 元/吨。 供需基本面：去库不及预期，大厂复产渐进 政策：工信部指出要认真落实党中央关于综合整治"内卷式"竞争的决策部署，依法依规治理动力和储 能电池产业非理性竞争。 原料：11 月 26 日，自然资源部 ...

Market Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 96,600 yuan/ton and closed at 95,820 yuan/ton, with a -1.68% change from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 741,463 lots, and the open interest was 507,882 lots, compared to 478,054 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is -3,980 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 26,781 lots, a change of -269 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 90,600 - 96,000 yuan/ton, a change of 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 89,200 - 92,500 yuan/ton, a change of 450 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,195 US dollars/ton, a change of 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Downstream material factories are taking a cautious and wait - and - see attitude, and purchases are mainly for rigid demand, with light market transactions [1]. - Upstream and downstream enterprises are negotiating long - term agreements for next year, and the current focus is on the coefficient. On the supply side, the overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remains high, with lithium spodumene and salt lake being the main supply sources. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November can maintain the production level of October, with a roughly flat month - on - month change [1]. - In terms of demand, in the power market, both commercial and passenger new energy vehicles are growing rapidly; in the energy storage market, supply and demand are both booming, and supply remains tight [1]. - The Natural Resources Ministry has issued a notice on the change registration (including renewal) and license application for the non - oil and gas mining rights of the Zhenkouli in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province - Jianxiawo Lithium Mine in Fengxin County. It is expected that the subsequent resumption of production will accelerate, but the actual resumption progress still needs to be continuously monitored [2]. - According to the latest weekly statistics, the weekly production decreased by 265 tons to 21,865 tons. The production from lithium spodumene and mica increased slightly, while the production from salt lakes decreased slightly. The weekly inventory decreased by 2,452 tons to a total of 115,968 tons. The inventory of smelters and downstream decreased, while the inventory in other links increased. The consumer side has shown good performance recently [2]. Strategy - Inventory is continuously being depleted, and consumption has certain support. Currently, the resumption of production at the mine end is in progress, and it is expected to gradually resume production in the future. There are significant differences in the consumption forecast for the first quarter. It is expected that the demand from the power battery end will decrease, while the energy storage end will remain at a high level. Attention should be paid to the extent of the weakening in the power sector [3]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to mainly wait and see in the short - term for single - side trading. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, options, cross - variety, and spot - futures trading [3].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - Over the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation pattern, with the main fluctuation range between RMB 95,000 and RMB 100,000 per ton. The stable supply restricts the upside space, while the demand is supported by new energy vehicle sales growth and good cell production scheduling. However, the downstream's rigid - demand - based procurement and strong wait - and - see sentiment, along with the negotiation of next year's long - term agreements, may suppress price breakthroughs. Meanwhile, continuous inventory reduction provides bottom support [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Main Contract and Basis**: On November 26, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was reported at RMB 96,340 per ton, up RMB 940 or 0.99% from the previous trading day, showing a slight increase. The basis was - RMB 5,140 per ton, weaker than the previous value of - RMB 4,200 per ton by RMB 940, indicating an expanded spot - futures price difference and a relatively weak spot market [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract reached 478,054 lots, a significant increase of 134,855 lots or 39.29% from the previous value of 343,199 lots. The trading volume was reported at 810,231 lots, a substantial increase of 298,952 lots or 58.47% from the previous value of 511,279 lots [1]. 2. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: On November 21, 2025, the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained at 75.34%, the same as on November 14. The market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate were stable at RMB 8,615 per ton and RMB 4,825 per ton respectively. Lithium salt plants were operating at a high - level capacity, with spodumene and salt - lake sources as the main supply sources. It is expected that the November output will be flat month - on - month, and the overall supply is stable [2]. - **Demand Side**: According to the Passenger Car Association data on November 19, 2025, from November 1 - 16, the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 2% year - on - year and 7% month - on - month, and the wholesale sales increased by 1% year - on - year and 17% month - on - month. The downstream cell prices increased slightly. The power and energy storage markets had strong demand, and cell production scheduling was positive [2]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: On November 21, 2025, the lithium carbonate inventory was reported at 118,420 physical tons, a decrease of 2,052 tons or 1.7% from 120,472 physical tons on November 14 [2]. 3. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - From November 25 to November 26, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract price increased from RMB 95,400 per ton to RMB 96,340 per ton, up RMB 940 or 0.99%. The basis weakened from - RMB 4,200 per ton to - RMB 5,140 per ton. The position increased from 343,199 lots to 478,054 lots, up 134,855 lots or 39.29%, and the trading volume increased from 511,279 lots to 810,231 lots, up 298,952 lots or 58.47%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at RMB 91,200 per ton. The market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable at RMB 8,615 per ton and RMB 4,825 per ton respectively. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased from RMB 160,500 per ton to RMB 163,000 per ton, up RMB 2,500 or 1.56%. The price of power - type ternary materials increased from RMB 143,950 per ton to RMB 144,150 per ton, up RMB 200 or 0.14%, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased from RMB 38,925 per ton to RMB 39,110 per ton, up RMB 185 or 0.48% [5]. - From November 14 to November 21, 2025, the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained at 75.34%. The inventory decreased from 120,472 physical tons to 118,420 physical tons, a decrease of 2,052 tons or 1.7%. The price of 523 cylindrical ternary cells increased from RMB 4.54 per piece to RMB 4.64 per piece, up RMB 0.1 or 2.2%. The price of 523 square ternary cells remained unchanged at RMB 0.50 per Wh. The price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells remained unchanged at RMB 0.52 per Wh. The price of square lithium iron phosphate cells remained unchanged at RMB 0.34 per Wh. The price of cobalt - acid lithium cells increased from RMB 7.35 per Ah to RMB 7.45 per Ah, up RMB 0.1 or 1.36% [5]. 4. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On November 26, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was RMB 93,415 per ton, up RMB 953 per ton from the previous working day. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was in the range of RMB 90,000 - 95,600 per ton, with an average of RMB 92,800 per ton, up RMB 750 per ton from the previous working day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was in the range of RMB 88,800 - 92,000 per ton, with an average of RMB 90,400 per ton, up RMB 750 per ton from the previous working day. The lithium carbonate futures showed a range - bound oscillation pattern, with the main contract switched to 2605, and the futures price mainly fluctuating between RMB 95,300 and RMB 99,900 per ton. The downstream material factories' procurement willingness returned to a wait - and - see attitude after a brief recovery, and the procurement was still mainly for rigid demand, with light market transactions. Currently, upstream and downstream enterprises are negotiating next year's long - term agreements, mainly focusing on the coefficient [6]. - **Downstream Consumption Situation**: According to the Passenger Car Association data on November 19, from November 1 - 16, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 554,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 2% and a month - on - month increase of 7%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 1,070.3 million units, a year - on - year increase of 21%. The wholesale sales of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers were 618,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 1% and a month - on - month increase of 17%. The cumulative wholesale sales this year reached 1,267.5 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28% [7]. - **Industry News**: On November 21, according to "Longyan Release", the project of Sanwei (Longyan) Battery Technology Co., Ltd. was officially launched in the Gaopi area of Longyan High - tech Zone (Economic Development Zone), Fujian Province. The project, with a total investment of RMB 580 million, is expected to have an annual production capacity of 1 GWh of three - dimensional solid - state lithium batteries and an annual output value exceeding RMB 1.2 billion [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry is neutral [12]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations driven by news. The price of lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 92,620 - 96,380 [13][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 22,130 tons, a 2.71% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In October 2025, production was 92,260 tons, and next - month production is forecasted to be 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease. October imports were 23,881 tons, and next - month imports are forecasted to be 27,000 tons, a 13.06% increase [8][13]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 102,584 tons, a 2.05% week - on - week decrease; the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 19,290 tons, a 0.41% week - on - week increase. Next - month demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline [8][13]. - Inventory: Total inventory was 118,420 tons, a 1.70% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. Smelter inventory was 26,104 tons, a 7.66% decrease; downstream inventory was 44,436 tons, an 8.89% decrease; other inventory was 47,880 tons, a 10.25% increase [9]. - Cost: The cost of外购锂辉石精矿 was 88,224 yuan/ton, a 0.31% daily decrease, with a profit of 2,549 yuan/ton. The cost of外购锂云母 was 90,365 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a loss of 1,850 yuan/ton. The recycling - end production cost was generally higher than the ore - end cost, with negative production income. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore - end, with sufficient profit margins [13]. - Market indicators: On November 26, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,800 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 3,540 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The MA20 of the market was upward, and the 05 contract price closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players was short, with a decrease in short positions [13]. - Factors: Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and a decrease in lithium carbonate imports from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply from the ore and salt - lake ends, with limited decline [14][15]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Price changes: The price of lithium carbonate and related products showed various fluctuations. For example, the price of lithium carbonate (6%) increased by 4.31% to 1,113 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.81% to 92,800 yuan/ton [19]. - Supply - side data: The weekly operating rate was 75.34%, unchanged. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene decreased by 0.31% to 88,224 yuan/ton. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 92,260 tons, a 5.73% increase [22]. - Demand - side data: The monthly operating rate of the lithium battery industry increased, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate lithium increased by 6.35% and 10.54% respectively. The monthly power battery loading volume increased by 10.66% [22]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and production: The price of lithium ore showed fluctuations over time. The production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica also changed year - on - year [29]. - Supply - demand balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed different situations each month, with some months in short supply and others with a surplus [31][33]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Operating rate and production: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate production from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling) and the monthly production showed different trends. The monthly production of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate also changed [35]. - Supply - demand balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed different situations each month, with some months in short supply and others with a surplus [40]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity utilization and production: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide and the monthly production from different sources (causticization and smelting) showed different trends [42]. - Supply - demand balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations each month, with some months in short supply and others with a surplus [44]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Cost and profit of different raw materials: The cost and profit of lithium compounds produced from different raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, recycled materials) showed different trends over time [47][49][52]. 3.7 Inventory - Inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide from different sources (downstream, smelter) showed different trends over time [54]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price, production, and loading volume: The price, monthly production, and monthly power battery loading volume of lithium batteries showed different trends over time [57]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price, cost, and production: The price, cost, and monthly production of ternary precursors showed different trends over time. The supply - demand balance from 2024 to 2025 also showed different situations each month [63][66]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price, cost, and production: The price, cost, and monthly production of ternary materials showed different trends over time [69]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price, cost, and production: The price, cost, and monthly production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time [74]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, sales, and penetration rate: The production, sales, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time [82][83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 25, 2025, the 2601 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 4.47% to 95,400 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 92,050 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 89,650 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 81,180 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 105 tons to 26,615 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly production increased by 585 tons to 22,130 tons. In October, the import of lithium carbonate increased by 22% to 24,000 tons. In terms of demand, the weekly production of ternary materials increased by 118 tons to 19,002 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 79 tons to 19,290 tons; the weekly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 118 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 2,154 tons. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of lithium carbonate has been destocked for 14 consecutive weeks to 118,400 tons, and the inventory turnover days have decreased to 26.8 days [3]. - The weekly inventory continued the destocking trend last week, but the marginal change shows that the weekly destocking has slowed down. The weighted contract positions are still large, with risks of continued position reduction and transfer. Although the market sentiment was boosted by news on November 25, the fundamentals may weaken marginally, leading to a short - term downward risk in prices. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long after over - decline or the full release of negative factors [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 95,400 yuan/ton, up 4,920 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 95,340 yuan/ton, up 5,140 yuan. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,067 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars; the prices of various types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone remained unchanged. - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and various types of lithium hydroxide decreased by 100 yuan/ton, except for the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea), which decreased by 0.05 US dollars/kg [5]. - Lithium hexafluorophosphate: The price was 160,500 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan. - Price differences: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 2,400 yuan/ton; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at - 10,870 yuan/ton; the price difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 276 yuan [5]. - Precursors and cathode materials: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials decreased, with the exception of some materials whose prices remained unchanged. - Cells and batteries: The prices of most cells and batteries remained unchanged, while the prices of some products increased slightly [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Ore Prices - The report presents charts of the prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025, showing their price trends over time [6][8]. 3.2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - The report shows charts of the prices of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025, reflecting their price changes [11][15]. 3.2.3 Price Differences - The report includes charts of price differences such as the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant price differences from 2024 to 2025 [18]. 3.2.4 Precursors and Cathode Materials - The report provides charts of the prices of ternary precursors and cathode materials (including various types of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, cobalt acid lithium) from 2024 to 2025, showing their price trends [23][25]. 3.2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - The report presents charts of the prices of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025, reflecting their price changes [31]. 3.2.6 Inventory - The report shows charts of the inventory of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from April to November 2025, reflecting the inventory changes [35]. 3.2.7 Production Costs - The report provides a chart of the production costs of lithium carbonate (including cash production profits from different raw materials) from 2024 to 2025, showing the cost - profit situation [39].

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate main contract increased by 5% in a single day, currently priced at 99,720.00 yuan per ton [1] Group 1 - The price increase of lithium carbonate indicates a strong demand in the market [1] - The current price reflects significant market activity and potential investment opportunities in the lithium sector [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side showed that last week's lithium carbonate production was 22,130 tons, a 2.71% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In October 2025, the production was 92,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 physical tons, a 0.19% decrease. The import volume in October 2025 was 23,881 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 27,000 tons, a 13.06% increase. - On the demand - side, last week, the inventory of sample lithium iron phosphate enterprises was 102,584 tons, a 2.05% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of sample ternary material enterprises was 19,290 tons, a 0.41% week - on - week increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. - In terms of cost, the daily - average CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 88,499 yuan/ton, a 1.30% daily decrease, with a profit of 89 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 90,365 yuan/ton, a 3.45% daily decrease, with a loss of 4,041 yuan/ton; the production cost on the recycling side was generally higher than that on the ore side, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost on the salt - lake side was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that on the ore side, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. - The main logic is the emotional fluctuations caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance. The main risk points are the impact of shutdown, production reduction, and maintenance plans, and the start time of industry clearance. [8][9][10][13][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The production of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend last week, and the predicted changes in production and import volume for next month indicate a complex supply situation. The demand - side inventory of different materials also changed differently, and overall demand is expected to strengthen. - **Cost Analysis**: Different raw material costs showed different trends, with the salt - lake side having obvious cost advantages. - **Market Outlook**: Lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 93,560 - 97,240. - **Leveraging Factors**: The shutdown and production reduction plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. - **Negative Factors**: The continuous high supply on the ore/salt - lake side with limited decline. [8][9][10][11][12] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Conditions Overview**: The prices of various lithium - related products, including lithium spodumene, lithium mica, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide, showed different changes. The futures closing prices of lithium carbonate also had certain fluctuations, and the basis of the 05 contract indicated that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly and monthly production, import volume, and production cost of lithium - related products showed different trends. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in October 2025 was 92,260 tons, a 5.73% increase. - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly production, export volume, and battery loading volume of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium batteries showed different degrees of growth. For example, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 331,470 tons, a 6.35% increase. - **Inventory Data**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.70% week - on - week, with different trends in the inventory of smelters, downstream enterprises, and other aspects. [15][17] 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore showed a long - term change trend, and the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines in China also changed over time. - **Import and Self - sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore changed in different periods. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore showed different trends in different years. [24] 3.4 Supply - Lithium Ore - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet The supply and demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed different situations in different months from 2024 to 2025, with fluctuations in demand, production, import, and export, resulting in different balance results. [26][28] 3.5 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production, capacity, and production capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling materials) showed different trends. - **Import**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) and the total import volume changed over time. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The supply and demand balance of lithium carbonate showed different situations in different months from 2024 to 2025, with fluctuations in demand, production, import, and export, resulting in different balance results. [30][35] 3.6 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and production capacity of domestic lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting and causticizing) showed different trends. - **Export**: The export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide showed different trends in different years. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The supply and demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations in different months from 2024 to 2025, with fluctuations in demand, production, import, and export, resulting in different balance results. [37][39] 3.7 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The cost and profit of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycling materials for lithium carbonate production showed different trends. - **Processing Cost Composition**: The processing cost composition of lithium mica and lithium spodumene, including energy consumption, auxiliary materials, and miscellaneous expenses, showed different proportions. - **Profit of Different Processes**: The profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide carbonization to lithium carbonate, and other processes showed different trends. [42][44][47] 3.8 Inventory The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in different periods (weekly and monthly) and from different sources (smelters and downstream enterprises) showed different trends. [49] 3.9 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price and Cost**: The price and cost of lithium batteries, including power batteries and energy - storage batteries, showed different trends in different years. - **Production and Export**: The monthly production volume, export volume, and monthly cell production of lithium batteries showed different degrees of growth. [52][54] 3.10 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price and cost of ternary precursors, including different series (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series), showed different trends in different years. - **Production and Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly production volume and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different situations in different months from 2024 to 2025, with fluctuations in demand, production, import, and export, resulting in different balance results. [58][61] 3.11 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price, cost, and profit of ternary materials, including different series (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series), showed different trends in different years. - **Production, Inventory, and Trade**: The weekly production capacity utilization rate, weekly inventory, and import - export volume of ternary materials showed different trends. [64][66] 3.12 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price, Cost, and Profit**: The price, cost, and profit of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends in different years. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The monthly production volume, monthly capacity utilization rate, and annual production capacity of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends. [68][71] 3.13 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production volume, sales volume, and export volume of new energy vehicles showed different degrees of growth in different years. - **Penetration Rate and Zero - Batch Ratio**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the zero - batch ratios of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles of the Passenger Car Association showed different trends. [76][80]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate continuous main contract experienced a significant decline of 6% in a single day, currently priced at 94,000 yuan per ton [1] Group 1 - The lithium carbonate market is facing downward pressure as indicated by the recent price drop [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The inventory is continuously being depleted, but the pace of depletion is slowing down, and consumption has certain support. Currently, the resumption of production at the mine end is in progress, and it is expected to gradually resume production in the future. Regulatory measures have been strengthened, and attention should be paid to the impact of significant changes in positions. It is necessary to focus on the inflection points of consumption and inventory. If consumption weakens and the mine end resumes production, the inventory may shift from depletion to accumulation, and the market may decline at that time [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 20, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 opened at 99,780 yuan/ton and closed at 98,980 yuan/ton, with the closing price changing by 0.84% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,595,646 lots, and the open interest was 479,602 lots, compared with 503,132 lots in the previous trading day. According to SMM spot quotes, the current basis is -9,200 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts on that day were 26,916 lots, changing by 150 lots compared to the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 87,800 - 94,800 yuan/ton, changing by 2,400 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 87,000 - 90,800 yuan/ton, also changing by 2,400 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,245 US dollars/ton, changing by 45 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - Customs data shows that in October, the import of spodumene decreased by a certain amount month - on - month, reaching 652,000 physical tons, equivalent to approximately 61,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe together contributed 85.7% of the total imports. Among them, the ore from Australia was 295,000 tons, a 15% month - on - month decrease; the ore from Nigeria was about 110,000 tons, an 8% month - on - month decrease, with a significant increase in the proportion of lithium concentrate; the ore from Zimbabwe was 153,000 tons, a 40.9% month - on - month increase. In addition, the import from South Africa decreased significantly, with an import of nearly 50,000 tons in October, a 54.1% month - on - month decrease [2]. - According to the latest weekly statistical data, the weekly output increased by 585 tons to 22,130 tons. The production using spodumene and mica as raw materials, as well as the production from salt lakes and recycling, all increased slightly. The weekly inventory decreased by 2,052 tons to a total of 118,420 tons. The inventory of smelters and downstream decreased, while the inventory in other links increased. Recently, the consumer side still has good support [2]. Policy Adjustment - Starting from the trading time on November 24, 2025, the transaction fee standard for the lithium carbonate futures LC2601 contract will be adjusted to 0.032% of the transaction amount, and the intraday closing - out fee standard will also be adjusted to 0.032% of the transaction amount. For the lithium carbonate futures LC2602, LC2603, LC2604, and LC2605 contracts, the transaction fee standard will be adjusted to 0.016% of the transaction amount, and the intraday closing - out fee standard will also be adjusted to 0.016% of the transaction amount [3]. - Starting from the trading time on November 24, 2025, non - futures company members or customers are not allowed to open more than 500 lots per day on the lithium carbonate futures LC2601 contract, and not more than 2,000 lots per day on the lithium carbonate futures LC2602, LC2603, LC2604, and LC2605 contracts. Hedging transactions and market - making transactions are not subject to the above - mentioned daily open - position limits. Accounts with actual control relationships are managed as one account [3]. Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Mainly wait and see in the short term. Pay attention to the inflection points of inventory and consumption and the resumption of production at the mine end, and choose the opportunity to sell hedging at high prices [4]. - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money call options [4].