伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜周五收低，受到美元走强打压，但LME铜库存持续流出以及对短期供应 的担忧限制了跌幅。 伦敦时间6月6日17:00(北京时间6月7日00:00)，LME三个月期铜收低46.50美元或0.48%，收报每吨9,693 美元。 | | | 6月6日LE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 令屋 | 收盘价 | | 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 9693.00 | - | -46.50 -0.48% | | 三个月期铝 | 2450.50 | → | -27.50 -1.11% | | 三个月期锌 | 2666.00 | 一 | -20.00 -0.74% | | 三个月期铅 | 1978.50 | 1 | +0.50 ↑ +0.03% | | 三个月期镍 | 15487.00 J | | -36.00 -0.23% | | 三个月期锡 | | 32343.00 J -218.00 ↓ -0.67% | | 期铜周四曾触及逾两个月新高9,809.50美元，本周累计上涨约2%。 LME三个月期铝收低27.50美元或1.11%，至每 ...

Core Viewpoint - Continuous short covering is observed, raising questions about whether copper prices can sustain their upward trend. A strong dollar may exert pressure on copper prices, but signs of tightening supply are expected to provide long-term support for the market [1] Group 1 - Short covering in the market is ongoing, indicating potential bullish sentiment for copper prices [1] - A strong dollar could create downward pressure on copper prices, complicating the market outlook [1] - Signs of tightening supply are emerging, which may offer long-term support for copper prices despite short-term challenges [1]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced significant volatility and entered a correction phase in late May 2025, with spot gold falling below $3,300 per ounce, marking a 1.4% decline in a single day and approximately 6% down from the historical high of $3,509.9 in April [1] Group 1: Downward Driving Factors - Decrease in safe-haven demand due to progress in US-China and EU-US tariff negotiations and easing Middle East tensions, leading to a shift of funds from gold to risk assets like US stocks [1] - Strengthening US dollar with the index rising above 99.6, marking the largest weekly gain since March 2023, and a reduction in market expectations for interest rate cuts from 53 basis points to 47 basis points, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold [3] - Technical selling pressure intensified after gold prices fell below the key psychological level of $3,300, triggering stop-loss orders in program trading, with a 12% weekly decrease in COMEX gold futures open interest and a 35% drop in speculative long positions [3] Group 2: Market Chain Reactions - Divergence in consumption and investment, with domestic gold jewelry prices dropping to 987 yuan per gram, over 100 yuan lower than the April peak, while A-share gold stocks experienced a single-day decline of over 3% [4] - Global largest gold ETF (SPDR Gold Trust) increased holdings by 28 tons, indicating long-term investment interest, while short-term trading funds accelerated withdrawals, with COMEX gold put options reaching a historical high [5] Group 3: Future Trend Assessment - Short-term risks include potential declines to the $3,135 range if the $3,280 support level is breached, with extreme scenarios testing the $3,000 mark, and increased market volatility expected ahead of the Federal Reserve's June rate decision and the US core PCE index release [7] - Long-term support logic includes a 170% year-on-year increase in global central bank gold purchases in Q1 2025 and the introduction of gold weight in BRICS countries' settlement mechanisms providing structural support [8] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Prioritize purchasing from Shenzhen Shui Bei wholesale market or promotional brand products, avoiding high-premium gold jewelry with processing fees exceeding 200 yuan per gram [9] - Ordinary investors are advised to gradually build positions in gold ETFs or bank accumulation gold, maintaining a portfolio allocation of 5%-10% of household assets, while leveraged traders should be cautious of liquidity risks in US debt markets [10] Group 5: Technical Focus Points - Key support levels identified at $3,280 (EMA20 period moving average) and $3,135 (Fibonacci 50% retracement level), with resistance levels at $3,342 (May 27 opening price) and $3,365 (downward trend line resistance) [11]

Core Viewpoint - Gold futures prices are in a downward trend, reversing all gains from the previous week, despite a year-to-date increase of nearly 23% [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - President Trump announced a 50% tariff increase on the EU, which initially caused a spike in gold prices, but the subsequent postponement of the tariffs by five weeks led to a decline in gold prices [1] - The strengthening of the US dollar on Tuesday added further downward pressure on gold prices [1] Group 2: Investment Sentiment - Despite the recent decline, the overall weakness of the dollar and market uncertainty continue to make gold an attractive defensive investment choice for traders [1]

Group 1: Core Reasons for Gold Price Decline - Strengthening US Dollar and Federal Reserve Policy: The rebound of the US dollar index has decreased the attractiveness of gold, as the market anticipates a delay in interest rate cuts due to the Federal Reserve's high rate expectations [1] - Increased Rate Hike Expectations: If the US April CPI data exceeds expectations, it may lead to further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold [2] - Easing Geopolitical Risks: Progress in US-China trade negotiations and a reduction in concerns over the Russia-Ukraine conflict have diminished the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Technical Factors - Technical Sell-off: Gold prices breaking below key support levels (e.g., $3300/oz) have triggered algorithmic trading sell-offs, creating a vicious cycle of "sell more as prices drop" [5] - Profit-Taking by Bulls: Investors have chosen to lock in profits after a period of rising gold prices, leading to increased short-term selling pressure [6] Group 3: Macroeconomic Data Impact - Positive US Economic Data: Strong non-farm payroll data and a rebound in manufacturing PMI have alleviated recession fears, making risk assets like stocks more attractive and prompting funds to exit the gold market [8] - Rising Real Interest Rates: Increasing US Treasury yields have raised the opportunity cost of holding gold, pushing investors towards higher-yielding bonds or other assets [8] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Slowing Central Bank Gold Purchases: While central banks have been increasing gold holdings in the long term, a short-term reduction in purchases (e.g., China pausing gold buying) may exacerbate market volatility [9] - Market Speculation: Some investors using leverage or loans for gold trading have been forced to liquidate positions due to price declines, further amplifying market volatility [10] Group 5: Other Contributing Factors - Normalization of Gold Premiums: The previous concerns over US tariffs on gold that led to inflated premiums are dissipating, reducing arbitrage opportunities and causing a decline in physical demand [11] - Consumer Demand Hesitance: With falling gold prices, consumer expectations of further declines have led to a temporary freeze in purchasing intentions, resulting in weak short-term demand [12]

继昨天黄金大幅度上涨之后，本周五黄金价格再度下跌，由于美元走强和贸易战担忧减弱削弱黄金作为避险 资产的吸引力，金价有望创下六个月来最大单周跌幅。由于市场对中美贸易战的降级感到高兴，本周金价面 临巨大的抛售压力。 对于黄金走势的看法！ 早盘这轮下跌，其实是较为符合今天思路的，早盘关注的点就在3200这个整数关口位置，而早盘最低跌至 3206再度反抽至3230一线，策略点位上和我们所说的3200做多稍有差距，也是没有机会进场，而当前黄金延 续了早盘的跌幅，那么必定还要二次测试3200的关口，这也是看本周五是否会再度出现吞没行情的关键！ 而欧盘来说若是给到3200附近空间点位，兴言还是有再度博弈一次多单的想法的，毕竟这个位置还是较为明 显的分界点的，而若是今天再度跌破那就真算的上是多空洗盘行情了，而小时线来看其实还是较为弱势的， 欧盘能管住的支持其实也就是3200±3个点左右的空间，我们静待趋势的明朗即可！ 黄金：稳健可等3194附近多，防守8个点，目标看3235一线，激进则看3200直接进场，同时若趋势有所改变， 需要调仓调整我在实时给出！ 所谓一个靠谱的人，凡事有交代，件件有着落，事事有回音，兴言一直致力于市场 ...

随着全球经济形势的复杂多变,金融市场波动加剧，各类资产价格频繁调整，现货黄金价格出现显著下跌，日内跌幅高达 2.37%，引发市场广泛关注，本文将深入解析此次现货黄金价格跳水的原因，分析其对市场的影响，并探讨未来走势。 现货黄金价格跳水原因 美元走强 美国经济数据好转 美国经济数据表现良好,如非农就业数据、制造业PMI等指标均表现强劲，这增强了市场对美国经济复苏的信心，降低了黄 金的避险需求。 地缘政治风险缓解 中东地区地缘政治风险有所缓解,如伊朗核问题、叙利亚局势等，这降低了市场对黄金的避险需求。 黄金供应增加 南非、澳大利亚等主要黄金生产国产量增加，使得黄金供应过剩，对价格形成压力。 现货黄金价格跳水对市场的影响 投资者情绪波动 现货黄金价格跳水,使得部分投资者对黄金市场信心受挫，可能导致黄金市场资金流出。 美元指数持续走强,对黄金价格形成压制，美联储加息预期升温，使得美元资产吸引力增强；全球经济增长放缓，市场避 险情绪升温，美元作为全球主要避险货币，其地位愈发稳固。 货币市场流动性变化 黄金价格下跌可能导致货币市场流动性收紧,对全球金融市场产生一定影响。 未来走势展望 美元加息预期 虽然近期美元加息预期有 ...

Group 1 - Oil prices increased on May 8, supported by optimism surrounding upcoming trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, following a decline of over $1 the previous trading day [1] - Brent crude futures rose by $0.51, or 0.8%, to $61.63 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased by $0.57, or 1%, to $58.64 per barrel [1] - The upcoming meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset and Chinese economic officials is aimed at addressing trade tensions that could impact global oil consumption growth [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates amid rising economic uncertainty has raised concerns about weak demand, limiting the extent of oil price increases [1] - A report from ING analysts indicated that the Fed's stance on interest rates has strengthened the dollar, which in turn has created additional resistance in the commodity markets [2] - Increased gasoline inventories in the U.S. have raised concerns among analysts about the potential for rising consumption as the summer demand period approaches [2] Group 3 - OPEC+ is set to increase oil production, which will add further pressure on oil prices [3]

美国财长贝森特：对于信心而言，那些推动美元走强的条件具有重要意义。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a decline in gold prices due to easing trade tensions and a decrease in safe-haven demand, alongside a strengthening dollar impacting the attractiveness of gold as a safe asset [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold futures have plummeted as trade tensions ease and safe-haven demand diminishes [1] - A strong dollar has further dampened enthusiasm for gold as a safe asset, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for international buyers [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - There is optimism in the market regarding a potential trade agreement in the U.S., leading to increased risk appetite [1] - Following the release of a series of weak economic data, expectations for interest rate cuts in the U.S. have risen, as the economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter [1] - Lower interest rates typically stimulate demand for non-yielding gold [1]