从盘面来看，金价已跌破3380美元附近的关键技术支撑，该位置由100小时均线与短期上升通道下轨构成。小时图振荡指标继续走弱，暗示短线或有进一 步下探风险， 下方初步支撑位于3350美元区间，若有效跌破，可能加速下行至3315美元，甚至测试3300美元整数位。 周一亚洲时段，金价承压下滑，受全球风险偏好上升打压，但美联储降息预期及美元走弱限制了跌幅。市场关注本周即将公布的美国CPI和PPI数据，这将 决定金价的短期走势。同时，美俄谈判及美对亚洲大国关税问题的不确定性仍为市场提供支撑。 反之，上方3400美元关口依旧是重要阻力，突破后有望挑战3430美元以及3450美元区域，若持续站稳，则可能重启升势并逼近3500美元的历史高位。 当前黄金走势处于宏观与技术因素的双重博弈阶段，风险情绪改善限制了避险买盘，但美联储降息预期及关税不确定性提供了价格支撑。短期来看，CPI 数据或成为打破当前区间震荡的关键催化剂。 今天我的观点是反弹给到3385-3390的区域短空，震荡行情目标不要看太大，3370-3365，极限一些看至3355-50一线，防守位置在3405早上高点，一旦突破 早上高点再反手看多，这一点作为备用计划。（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of the next Federal Reserve Chair nominee on interest rate expectations and capital market trends, highlighting a strong likelihood of interest rate cuts in September 2023 [1][5][9]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts within the year, advocating for a cut to begin in September [1][5]. - Current market expectations indicate a 91.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, reflecting increased optimism among investors [1][9]. - The recent appointment of Stephen Milan, perceived as a dovish figure, is expected to further strengthen the dovish stance within the Federal Reserve [6]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The upcoming release of the July CPI data is anticipated to show a rebound in inflation, with expectations of a year-on-year increase from 2.7% in June to 2.8% in July [3]. - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is projected to rise to 3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, indicating a potential shift in inflation dynamics [3]. - Analysts from Wells Fargo suggest that the July CPI data will be crucial for assessing whether the Federal Reserve needs to adjust its monetary policy, especially in light of weak labor market data [3][4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Earnings Reports - The article notes that U.S. stock indices, particularly the Nasdaq, have reached new historical highs, influenced by the dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [1]. - This week, several major Chinese tech companies, including Tencent and JD.com, are set to announce their earnings, which may impact market sentiment [4].

Group 1 - The potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair are influencing interest rate cut expectations and capital market trends, with the Nasdaq Composite Index reaching a new closing high [1] - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year and suggests starting the cuts in the September meeting, which has boosted market optimism [1][5] - Current market expectations indicate a 91.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, according to CME FedWatch [1][9] Group 2 - The upcoming release of the U.S. July CPI data is highly anticipated, with expectations of a year-over-year increase from June's 2.7% to 2.8% [3] - Core CPI is expected to rise by 0.1 percentage points, reaching 3% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, reflecting the impact of tariffs on prices [3] - Wells Fargo economists believe the July CPI data will be crucial for assessing whether the Federal Reserve needs to adjust its monetary policy, especially after a disappointing non-farm payroll report [3] Group 3 - This week, several major Chinese companies, including Tencent, JD.com, and NetEase, will report their earnings, alongside U.S. companies like Oklo Inc., Sea, and Circle [4]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts within the year, citing recent weak labor market data as a reinforcement of this stance [1][3] - Bowman emphasizes the need to avoid further unnecessary deterioration in the labor market and reduce the likelihood of larger policy corrections in the future [3] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicates that the timing for rate cuts is approaching due to evidence of a weakening job market and the absence of persistent tariff-induced inflation [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Federal Reserve will begin a series of three consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts starting in September, with a potential for a 50 basis point cut if unemployment rises further [3][4] - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting, with Bowman and another governor voting against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [3][4] - Recent labor market data shows a significant underperformance, with July non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, well below the Dow Jones estimate of 100,000, and revisions to previous months indicating a downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs [4] Group 3 - Inflation data reveals that the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, indicating stable inflation [5] - The core PCE price index for June also increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [5] - Upcoming key economic data releases, including July CPI, PPI, and retail sales, are anticipated to provide important insights for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments [5][6]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts within the year, citing recent weak labor market data as a reinforcement of this stance [1][3] - Bowman emphasizes the need for the Fed to begin cutting rates in the September meeting to prevent further unnecessary deterioration in the labor market [3][4] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also indicates that the timing for rate cuts is approaching, suggesting two 25 basis point cuts this year [3][4] Group 2 - The July non-farm payroll data showed a significant miss, with only 73,000 jobs added, falling short of the Dow Jones estimate of 100,000 [4] - The unemployment rate slightly increased, and previous months' job numbers were revised downwards, indicating a more pessimistic labor market than expected [4] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for June rose by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, suggesting stable inflation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements from Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman indicate strong support for three interest rate cuts within the year, driven by weak labor market data in the U.S. [2][4] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - Bowman advocates for starting interest rate cuts in the September meeting to prevent further deterioration in the labor market and to reduce the need for larger policy adjustments later [4][5] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also supports the idea of two 25 basis point cuts this year, emphasizing the importance of timing rather than the occurrence of cuts [4][5] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Fed will initiate three consecutive 25 basis point cuts starting in September, with a potential for a 50 basis point cut if unemployment rises further [5] Group 2: Labor Market Data - The U.S. labor market showed a significant slowdown, with July non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, well below the expected 100,000 [6] - The employment data for May and June was revised downwards, with a total downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs over those two months, indicating a more pessimistic outlook for the labor market [6] - The weak employment report increases the likelihood of a rate cut in September, as the Fed closely monitors employment data as a policy target [6] Group 3: Inflation Data - The June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, showing stable inflation [6] - Core PCE, excluding food and energy, also increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, indicating that inflation remains within expected ranges [6] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with core CPI rising by 2.9%, suggesting that tariff impacts are becoming evident but are largely in line with market expectations [6] Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - The U.S. stock market is set to receive significant economic data, including July CPI, PPI, and retail sales, which will provide important insights for the Fed's monetary policy adjustments [7] - The release dates for these key economic indicators are August 12 for CPI and August 14 for PPI [8]

智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通策略师表示，如果美国总统唐纳德·特朗普成功任命一位关键成员进入美联 储，那么美国国债收益率曲线可能会从四年来最宽的水平进一步变陡。周四，美国5年期和30年期国债收益 率之差扩大，此前特朗普宣布，提名白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰出任美联储理事一职，以填补美 联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒突然辞职留下的空缺。该任命需经参议院批准。此外有报道称，美联储理事克 里斯托弗·沃勒有望接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔担任美联储主席。 由于上周就业数据不佳，货币市场加大了对美联储降息的押注力度。目前，掉期交易预计美联储9月份降息 25个基点的可能性为95%，并预计年底前至少还会再次降息一次。交易员们也在关注下周公布的美国通胀数 据。经济学家预计7月份通胀率将从6月份的0.3%降至0.2%。 以杰伊·巴里为首的摩根大通分析师团队周四晚些时候发布报告称："米兰一直认为，特朗普政府的贸易、移 民和放松管制政策都会抑制通胀。从这个角度来看，这支持了美联储采取更为鸽派的政策，也解释了今天 所观察到的收益率曲线陡化现象。" 周五，美国30年期国债收益率稳定在4.82%。 美债收益率曲线恐进一步趋陡 利差目前维持在略高于1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change, which aligns with market expectations [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The voting result for the decision was 9 in favor and 2 against, with one member absent, marking the first time since late 1993 that two members opposed the rate decision [1] - The dissenting votes came from Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, who argued for a 25 basis point rate cut [2] Group 2: Economic Considerations - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged is influenced by inflation pressures and economic uncertainties in the U.S. [2] - Powell emphasized that the Fed is in a favorable position to observe and will closely monitor U.S. inflation data as a key factor for future monetary policy [2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the July meeting, the market's expectation for a September rate cut dropped significantly from 63.3% to 43.2% [3] - Analysts predict a total rate cut of 50 to 75 basis points by the end of the year, with a higher likelihood of a cut in November rather than September [5]

Group 1 - International gold prices have risen due to a weaker dollar and investor focus on trade developments ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline [1] - Lower-than-expected US inflation data did not lead to a re-evaluation of hawkish interest rate expectations, allowing gold to rebound from a major upward trend line [1] - With the Federal Reserve's easing policy, real yields are likely to continue declining, supporting an upward trend in gold prices [1] Group 2 - Today's gold trading saw a profit from a long position at 3356, closing at 3370 for a gain of 14 points, while a short position at 3375 resulted in a loss of 8 points, leading to a small overall profit [3] - The gold market showed slow upward movement during the day, with limited opportunities for pullbacks, leading to a chase of the upward trend [5] - The current strong resistance level for gold is between 3373-3375, with potential for testing the 3410 level as it has reached 3395 [5] Group 3 - A recommendation was made to go long near 3375, with a stop loss at 3365 and a target range of 3395-3405 [7]

Group 1 - The price of gold has faced a significant resistance at $3,400, with multiple attempts to break through failing, leading to a bearish sentiment in the market [1][4][9] - Gold ETF holdings have declined for 12 consecutive weeks, with a notable outflow of 10.2 tons in a single day, indicating institutional withdrawal from gold investments [1][4] - The actual interest rate, calculated as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield minus inflation, is currently at 1.46%, which is more attractive than gold's zero yield, prompting investors to favor bonds over gold [4][9] Group 2 - Despite increased industrial demand for gold, such as a 25% rise in gold usage in Apple's new phones and a doubling in TSMC's 3nm chips, industrial gold only accounts for 10% of total demand, insufficient to drive significant price increases [2] - The price of silver remains low at around $31, despite industrial demand comprising 60% of its total usage, highlighting a significant price distortion compared to historical averages [2] Group 3 - Major gold mining companies like Newmont and Barrick Gold have seen their stock prices drop significantly, indicating a bearish outlook for the gold mining sector [6] - The recent surge in gold prices due to geopolitical tensions has been short-lived, with prices quickly retreating after initial spikes, reflecting a lack of sustained investor confidence [4][8] Group 4 - Central bank gold purchases reached a record high of 1,037 tons last year, but there has been a sharp decline in purchases in the first quarter of this year, signaling a cooling trend in demand [8] - The market's reaction to geopolitical risks has become increasingly muted, as evidenced by minimal price movements in response to significant events [8]