来源：@央视财经 美国劳工部24日公布的数据显示，美国9月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨3%；剔除波动较大的食品 和能源价格后，9月核心CPI同比上涨3%。 因美国联邦政府"停摆"，美国9月CPI数据已推迟多日。尽管美国9月通胀数据持续高于美联储2%的通胀 目标，但投资者更关注美国就业市场的疲软状态，在目前贸易局势紧张与政府"停摆"背景下，市场普遍 认为美联储渐进式降息几乎已成定局，预计美联储将在下周（10月29日）以及12月的利率政策会议上分 别再次降息25个基点，联邦基金利率目标区间将被下调至4.00%以下。 作者: 渠莎莎 ...

Core Insights - The dollar has strengthened against a basket of currencies in anticipation of U.S. inflation data for September, which is expected to show an acceleration [1] Group 1 - The rise of the dollar indicates market expectations regarding inflation trends [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the USD/CHF exchange rate is experiencing slight upward movement, with current trading around 0.7961, reflecting a 0.10% increase from the previous day [1][2] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is anticipated to show a year-on-year core inflation rate increase of 3.1%, up from the previous 2.9%, indicating steady growth in core data [1] - Monthly changes in overall and core CPI are expected to rise by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, suggesting ongoing inflationary pressures [1] Group 2 - The USD/CHF exchange rate is fluctuating narrowly around 0.7960 as investors await the release of U.S. inflation data for September [2] - The dollar index, which tracks the value of the dollar against six major currencies, is trading around 99.00, indicating stability in the dollar's performance [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recently released US inflation data is unlikely to have a lasting impact on the dollar's trajectory or the Federal Reserve's decision-making [1][2] - Delayed data release can indicate whether tariff policies have driven inflation, but it is not expected to alter the Federal Reserve's meeting tone next week, as most members believe the impact of tariffs on inflation is temporary [1][2] - Even if inflation data exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve may still consider a rate cut on October 29, focusing more on employment conditions, as recent labor market deterioration provides justification for a rate cut [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent US inflation data is unlikely to have a lasting impact on the US dollar, according to Deutsche Bank analyst Antje Praefcke [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Inflation Data Impact** The delayed release of US inflation data may reveal whether tariff policies have increased inflation levels, but it is "unlikely to change the decision-making tone" of the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, as most Fed members believe any impact from tariffs on inflation will be temporary [1][2]. - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision** Even if the inflation data exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve may still implement a rate cut on October 29, as the current focus is on employment conditions, with recent deterioration in the labor market providing justification for a rate cut [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices rebounded on Wednesday, supported by a weaker dollar and bargain buying, as investors focus on the upcoming U.S. inflation data set to be released on Friday, which will provide clues for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [1] Group 1 - The rebound in gold prices is attributed to a softening dollar and increased buying interest at lower price levels [1] - Investors are particularly attentive to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, which is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rate cuts [1] - StoneX senior analyst Matt Simpson noted a significant shift in gold trading momentum, indicating a technical repositioning in the market after surpassing the $4000 mark, suggesting a potential need for a market correction [1]

Group 1 - Spot gold has reached a new historical high, breaking through $4,380 per ounce, with the gold ETF (159937) rising by 2.35% and over 60% increase year-to-date [1] - The gold ETF (159937) has seen continuous inflows, with a total inflow of 5.509 billion yuan in the last 10 days and a net inflow of 13.251 billion yuan year-to-date, bringing its latest scale to 39.257 billion yuan, ranking among the top in its category [1] - The rise in gold prices is primarily supported by market expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing safe-haven buying, with investors closely monitoring trade developments and upcoming U.S. inflation data [1] Group 2 - Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio recently expressed views on gold, suggesting that a reasonable allocation of gold in most investors' portfolios is between 10% to 15% [2] - Gold has increasingly replaced U.S. Treasury bonds in many investment portfolios, especially among central banks and large institutional investors, becoming a "risk-free asset" [2] - Historically, gold has proven to be a currency and store of wealth with intrinsic value, remaining resilient despite the disappearance of approximately 80% of global currencies since 1750 and severe devaluation of the remaining 20% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged over 4% due to investor anticipation of recent US-China trade negotiations and US inflation data, alongside rising expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On the previous Friday, gold prices reached a historical high of $4,392 per ounce but fell 1.8% by the end of the day, marking the largest single-day drop since mid-May [3]. - Political and economic concerns are driving gold prices upward, with expectations that prices could reach $4,500 per ounce in the near term [3]. - The US government shutdown has entered its 20th day, affecting key economic data releases and creating a "data vacuum" for investors and policymakers ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting [4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in assessing the US economy due to the shutdown, which has hindered access to essential economic data [4]. - Market expectations indicate a 99% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with further cuts anticipated in December and potentially three cuts (75 basis points) next year [4]. Group 3: Central Bank Demand for Gold - HSBC's commodity outlook report suggests that gold's upward momentum may continue until 2026, driven by strong central bank purchases, ongoing fiscal concerns in the US, and expectations of further monetary easing, with a target price of $5,000 per ounce [5]. - Central banks are increasingly viewing gold as a hedge against debt sustainability risks and potential dollar weakness, with sustained high demand expected, particularly from emerging market central banks [5][6]. - The World Gold Council reports that central banks remain strategic buyers of gold, viewing it as a key component of their reserve portfolios amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and changing interest rate expectations [6]. Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the reliability of fiat currencies are prompting central banks to diversify their reserves by increasing gold holdings [6][7]. - Former US Mint Director Edmund Moy highlights that central banks are concerned about deteriorating US fiscal conditions and economic uncertainties, leading to a desire to reduce exposure to dollar assets [7].

Core Viewpoint - If U.S. inflation data meets or falls below expectations, it may strengthen market expectations for deeper policy easing in 2025-2026, thereby exerting downward pressure on yields and the dollar [1] Group 1 - Analyst Konstantinos Chrysikos from Kudotrade highlights the potential impact of U.S. inflation data on market expectations [1]

Core Insights - Key U.S. inflation data is expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The upcoming inflation data will be crucial for determining the pace of interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve [1]