铁矿石产业链日报 2026/2/2 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 783.00 | -8.50↓ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 520,684 | -20544↓ | | 期货市场 | I 5-9合约价差（元/吨） | 17 | -2.00↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 4542 | +10777↑ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 1,100.00 | 0.00 | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 102.65 | -1.14↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 839 | -4↓ 青岛港60.5%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 835 | -4↓ | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 752 | -9↓ I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合约) | 52 | +4↑ | | | 铁矿石62%普氏指数（前一日，美元/吨） | 103.2 ...

《华盛顿邮报》称，当事后被记者问及这些言论时，特朗普回应说，"这是吐槽，这是喜剧之夜。"不过 他也补充说，他确实希望沃什能降息。 【环球网报道】据美国《华盛顿邮报》、"Mediaite"新闻网等媒体报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间1月31 日晚出席名流云集的"苜蓿草俱乐部"晚宴并发表讲话，然而，其间他讲笑话却多次遭遇冷场。 《华盛顿邮报》称，这是特朗普首次在"苜蓿草俱乐部"发表讲话。现场听众中包括多位他的"敌人"，如 摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（特朗普正起诉其银行）、大卫·鲁宾斯坦（曾被特朗普免去肯尼迪表演 艺术中心主席职务），以及杰罗姆·鲍威尔（即将卸任的美联储主席、正在接受特朗普政府调查）。一 名参与者转述特朗普的话说，"这里有这么多我讨厌的人。（不过）我还是喜欢你们大多数人。" 报道称，特朗普还讲了一些笑话但反响冷淡，现场多次陷入沉默。报道具体称，特朗普讲话中提到，自 己可能要提前结束演讲，因为他得去"看入侵格陵兰岛的行动"，随后承认这只是个玩笑。 "我们不会入侵格陵兰岛，我们会买下它。"特朗普说，"我从来没打算让格陵兰岛成为第51个州。我想 让加拿大成为第51个州。格陵兰岛当第52个州，委内瑞拉可以是第 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is releasing risks, and silver is falling from a high level. Copper is waiting for guidance with price fluctuations. Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation. Lead has weak supply and demand with price fluctuations. Aluminum's volatility is increasing, and attention should be paid to the equity market trend. Alumina's oscillation is converging, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Platinum should be wary of panic selling, and palladium is following a weak adjustment. Nickel is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, with a game between fundamentals and speculative positions. Stainless steel has frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the nickel - iron expectation provides support at the bottom [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the closing prices of various gold and silver products all declined significantly. For example, the daily decline of Comex gold 2602 was 9.30%, and that of Comex silver 2602 was 26.37%. The night - trading prices also showed large drops, with the night - trading decline of Shanghai silver 2602 reaching 17.00% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of some products increased, while the positions decreased. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai gold 2602 increased by 372,766, and the position decreased by 24,521 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of some products decreased. For example, the inventory of Shanghai silver decreased by 26,940 kg, and the inventory of Comex silver decreased by 3,431,295 ounces [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman, which led to a sharp rise in the US dollar and a sell - off of gold and silver. The US Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill, but a short - term government shutdown was inevitable. The CME raised the trading margins for gold and silver [4][7]. Copper - **Price Performance**: The closing prices of Shanghai copper and London copper both declined. The daily decline of Shanghai copper's main contract was 4.98%, and that of London copper 3M electronic disk was 4.25% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai copper index increased by 606,369, and the position decreased by 29,840. The trading volume of London copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 52,697, and the position increased by 1,459 [8]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The inventory of Shanghai copper increased by 5,223 tons, and the inventory of London copper decreased by 1,100 tons. The注销仓单 ratio of London copper was 23.89%, with a decrease of 0.87% [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump nominated a new Fed chairman, and some copper mines in Chile had production problems. For example, the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in northern Chile basically stopped production, and Lundin Mining lowered its 2026 copper production guidance [8][10]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: The closing prices of Shanghai zinc and London zinc both declined. The daily decline of Shanghai zinc's main contract was 0.44%, and that of London zinc 3M electronic disk was 2.22% [11]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai zinc's main contract increased by 172,422, and the position decreased by 8,962. The trading volume of London zinc decreased by 23,075, and the position increased by 5,365 [11]. - **News**: The US Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill, but a short - term government shutdown was inevitable [12][13]. Lead - **Price Performance**: The closing prices of Shanghai lead and London lead both declined. The daily decline of Shanghai lead's main contract was 1.86%, and that of London lead 3M electronic disk was 0.77% [14]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai lead's main contract increased by 34,910, and the position decreased by 2,608. The trading volume of London lead decreased by 4,770, and the position increased by 3,394 [14]. - **News**: Trump nominated a new Fed chairman, and some candidates called for interest rate cuts [14]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The closing prices of Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, Shanghai alumina, and aluminum alloy all showed certain changes. For example, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum's main contract decreased by 1,030 compared with T - 1 [16]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume and position of each product also changed. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai aluminum's main contract increased by 254,608 compared with T - 1, and the position decreased by 57,628 [16]. - **News**: The global AI computing power construction has led to a surge in transformer orders, and Wall Street is focusing on Warsh's potential Fed policies [18]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price Performance**: The closing prices of platinum and palladium products all declined. For example, the decline of platinum futures 2606 was 11.70%, and the decline of palladium futures 2606 was 11.88% [19]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of some products increased, and the positions decreased. For example, the trading volume of Guangzhou platinum increased by 12,277, and the position decreased by 2,505 [19]. - **News**: The US federal government entered a partial "shutdown" state, and there were various international news such as Russia - US talks and SpaceX's satellite deployment plan [22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The closing prices of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel's main contracts both declined. The closing price of Shanghai nickel's main contract decreased by 7,470 compared with T - 1, and that of stainless steel's main contract decreased by 445 [25]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai nickel's main contract increased by 229,168 compared with T - 1, and the trading volume of stainless steel's main contract increased by 167,856 [25]. - **Industry Chain**: The prices and spreads of various products in the nickel industry chain changed. For example, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged, and the nickel plate - high - nickel iron spread decreased by 20 [25]. - **News**: The Indonesian government has taken a series of measures, such as suspending the issuance of new smelting licenses, revising the benchmark price formula of nickel ore, and adjusting the nickel ore production target. There were also news about steel product export license management and ship accidents [25][26][28].

【新闻】 提名沃什，特朗普：他会是最伟大的美联储主席之一，无需白宫施压，沃什自会降息。（华尔街见闻） 特朗普钦点美联储新主席，几位落选热门候选人喊话：利率太高该降了。（华尔街见闻） 铅趋势强度：0 2026 年 02 月 02 日 铅：供需双弱，价格震荡 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16865 | -1.86% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1995 | -0.77% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 122859 | 34910 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 10642 | -4770 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 56480 | -2608 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 171261 | 3394 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 50 | 5 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 2 日） | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 弱势 | 震荡 | 弱势 | 观望 | 短期宏观预期走弱，前期多头资 金了结意愿强 | | 铜 | 2603 | 弱势 | 震荡 | 弱势 | 观望 | 短期宏观预期走弱，前期多头资 金了结意愿强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 日内观点：弱势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：上周五夜盘黄金白银大跌，白银触及跌停板，这是短期消息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the silver market and the impact of U.S. economic policies, particularly the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump, which has led to significant volatility in precious metals prices. Group 1: Market Data - The current trading price of silver is approximately $80.26 per ounce, with T+D silver trading around 23,420 yuan per kilogram and the Shanghai silver main contract at 24,832 yuan per kilogram [1] - On January 30, the dollar index rose by 1.02% to close at 97.136, while silver closed at $84.63 per ounce, down 26.93% [1] - The SLV silver ETF held 15,523.36 tons as of January 30, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] Group 2: Economic Policies and Predictions - Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh for the Federal Reserve Chairman position, indicating that he believes it is inappropriate for the White House to pressure for interest rate cuts, although Warsh is expected to receive support from Democrats and may advocate for rate cuts [2] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement more than two rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - The silver market opened at 71.182 at the beginning of January, reached a historical high of 121.794, and then experienced a strong pullback, closing at 84.619 [6] - The market is expected to have a demand for a pullback in February, with potential targets set at 86 and 80, and further levels at 78.7, 76, and 75 if broken [6]

责任编辑：陈钰嘉 继上周五大幅下挫后，亚洲时段早间国际现货黄金延续跌势，原因是市场进一步消化特朗普提名凯文・ 沃什出任下一届美联储主席的消息。 澳大利亚国民银行的Ray Attrill在评论中表示，"因市场认可沃什执掌美联储的专业公信力，且普遍认为 美联储的独立性将得到维护，此前押注黄金上涨的投机性多头出现集中离场潮。"这位外汇策略主管补 充道，上周五美国公布强劲经济数据后，美元也收复了部分失地。 继上周五大幅下挫后，亚洲时段早间国际现货黄金延续跌势，原因是市场进一步消化特朗普提名凯文・ 沃什出任下一届美联储主席的消息。 澳大利亚国民银行的Ray Attrill在评论中表示，"因市场认可沃什执掌美联储的专业公信力，且普遍认为 美联储的独立性将得到维护，此前押注黄金上涨的投机性多头出现集中离场潮。"这位外汇策略主管补 充道，上周五美国公布强劲经济数据后，美元也收复了部分失地。 截至发稿，现货黄金失守4590美元/盎司，日内跌5.57%。 截至发稿，现货黄金失守4590美元/盎司，日内跌5.57%。 责任编辑：陈钰嘉 ...

黄金在亚洲早盘时段走低，延续了上周五的跌势，因市场进一步反映由凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）领导 美联储的预期；美国总统特朗普已提名凯文·沃什为下一任美联储主席。现货黄金下跌2.4%，报每盎司 4，777.67美元。澳大利亚国民银行（NAB）外汇策略主管Ray Attrill在评论中称，"投机性多头争相离 场，是基于市场认为沃什作为美联储主席具有信誉，以及对美联储独立性将得以维护的信心明显增 强。"该外汇策略主管补充称，此外，在美国周五公布强劲的经济数据后，美元也收复了部分失地。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：王永生 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：王永生 黄金在亚洲早盘时段走低，延续了上周五的跌势，因市场进一步反映由凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）领导 美联储的预期；美国总统特朗普已提名凯文·沃什为下一任美联储主席。现货黄金下跌2.4%，报每盎司 4，777.67美元。澳大利亚国民银行（NAB）外汇策略主管Ray Attrill在评论中称，"投机性多头争相离 场，是基于市场认为沃什作为美联储主席具有信誉，以及对美联储独立性将得以维护的信心明显增 强。"该外汇策 ...

核心结论：凯文·沃什获得提名属于超预期的结果，直至本次提名宣布 前一天，沃什和里德尔的概率仍相差不大。政策主张看，沃什主张缩表 和降息并行，比现任主席鲍威尔更偏鸽派、但比此前的热门人选哈塞 特更偏鹰派。沃什的提名后续仍需要参议院的确认，但由于鲍威尔受 到司法调查一事引发诸多共和党参议员不满，参议院确认进程可能不 会很顺畅。沃什提名前后，市场对美联储降息的预期变化不大，目前市 场仍预期下次降息在 6 月、全年降息 2 次，这可能是由于沃什的政策 立场相对中性且更加"灵活"。市场影响方面，短期看，预计沃什的提 名将利空美股和黄金，并推升美元和美债收益率，尤其是黄金，目前做 多较为拥挤且估值已处于高位，阶段性回调压力较大；中长期看，沃什 能否保持政策独立性仍是影响市场的核心变量，需持续关注。 1、沃什的背景资料及政策主张？ 证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 宏观点评 美联储迎来沃什，4 大关键点 事件：北京时间 1 月 30 日 19:48，美国总统特朗普在其个人社交媒体 Truth Social 上宣布，将提名凯文·沃什担任下一届美联储主席。 >背景资料：凯文 ...

转自：京报网_北京日报官方网站 #特朗普预计沃什轻松过关#【#特朗普希望沃什降息#】据美国《国会山报》报道，美国总统特朗普当地 时间1月31日称，他预计自己提名的下任美联储主席凯文·沃什将轻松通过国会参议院的确认程序，并表 示希望沃什实施降息。"他是一个非常'高质量'的人选。他应该毫无困难就能通过。"特朗普在总统专 机"空军一号"上对记者说，并暗示沃什可能获得一些民主党人支持。报道援引特朗普的话称，他希望沃 什实施降息，但尚未收到任何承诺。"我希望他（沃什）能降息。我是说，如果你在电视上看到他，你 知道，因为我会看（他的）采访和声明，我希望他能降息。但你知道，他最终得做他自己想做的 事。"特朗普说。在一名记者追问下，特朗普补充说，"不，没有（收到）承诺。我不想那样做。我想如 果我愿意的话，我也可以那样做，但我没有做"。特朗普1月30日提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美 联储主席，这一提名还需获得参议院批准。沃什2006年加入美联储，是当时最年轻的美联储理事。在美 联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场，但近年转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立场。《国会 山报》提到，目前尚不清楚沃什能否获得足够支持以确认提名， ...