Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions ahead of the December policy meeting, with some members signaling support for interest rate cuts while others advocate for maintaining current rates [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - New York Fed President Williams has indicated support for a rate cut, which has increased market expectations for a December rate reduction, with futures showing a probability rise from below 30% to over 60% [1]. - Since the October 29 policy meeting, Fed Chair Powell has remained silent, leading to a near-even split among the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with five members favoring no rate change [1][2]. - The current situation highlights the Fed's dilemma between supporting a weak labor market and controlling inflation, compounded by delays in key economic data releases due to government shutdowns [1]. Group 2: Shift in Market Focus - Investors are shifting from a focus on the Fed's overall consensus to calculating individual policymakers' voting tendencies, reflecting a more fragmented decision-making environment [2]. - The recent volatility in rate cut probabilities has disrupted market assessments of future interest rate directions, challenging the Fed's historical emphasis on consensus decision-making [2]. Group 3: Increase in Dissenting Votes - Dissenting votes, previously rare during Powell's tenure, have notably increased this year, with no unanimous decisions since June [5]. - Research indicates that a low number of dissenting votes can convey decision-making confidence, while critics argue it may suppress important viewpoints due to "groupthink" [5]. - Notably, two Fed governors voted against maintaining rates in July, marking the first time in 32 years that two governors opposed the chair's decision [5]. Group 4: Cautious Stance Among Policymakers - An increasing number of policymakers are expressing concerns similar to those of Kansas City Fed President George, with five of the 12 voting officials indicating a preference to maintain rates in December [7]. - Formerly dovish officials are also hinting at a preference for keeping rates unchanged, with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stating he would dissent if he strongly disagreed with the majority [8]. Group 5: Uncertainty Surrounding December Decision - The upcoming December decision is shaping up to be one of the closest votes in years, with some economists believing Williams' recent comments have solidified the case for a rate cut, while others remain uncertain [9]. - Dallas Fed President Logan noted the inherent uncertainty in macroeconomic and monetary policy decisions, emphasizing the challenge policymakers face in understanding the current economic landscape [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces significant internal divisions regarding interest rate policy amid conflicting economic signals, balancing a weak but stable labor market against persistent inflation and potential financial risks [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Loretta Mester, President of the Cleveland Fed, warns that further rate cuts could exacerbate high inflation and encourage risk-taking in financial markets, emphasizing that current financial conditions are "quite loose" [1][2] - Mester opposes the recent decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, arguing that monetary policy's effectiveness in controlling price pressures is limited [2] - Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Fed, expresses caution regarding inflation data, noting that recent employment figures show stability but warns against premature rate cuts until inflation trends are confirmed [2][3] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - The delayed September non-farm payroll report shows an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly above the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, indicating underlying weaknesses [3] - The market's focus has shifted from inflation narratives to growth and employment narratives following the employment report, reflecting the complexity of the current economic landscape [3] - The Federal Reserve's future decisions will remain highly data-dependent, navigating the delicate balance between preventing market panic and avoiding economic slowdown [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to be in short - term weak oscillation, mid - term high - level oscillation, and long - term step - up trend. The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. [1][6] - For both gold and silver, it is recommended that conservative investors wait and watch, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high, and should manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals faced resistance and pressure. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.22%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.75%. [1] - **Core Logic** - **Short - term Hedging**: The results of the China - US talks have been realized, but geopolitical risks still exist. The US employment situation is weakening, inflation is moderate, Fed officials are hawkish, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has been adjusted. [1] - **Hedging Attribute**: The results and consensus of China - US economic and trade consultations have been announced, and geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist. [1] - **Monetary Attribute**: The minutes of the Fed's October policy meeting showed that there were serious differences among policymakers when cutting interest rates last month. Many officials believed it might be appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of 2025. The number of continuing jobless claims in the US has soared, and builder confidence has been low for 19 consecutive months. More Fed policymakers are cautious about a December interest rate cut. The market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December has dropped to around 30%. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are strong. [1] - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index is weakly oscillating, and the depreciation of the RMB is beneficial to domestic prices. [1] - **Data** - **Prices**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4078.30 per ounce, up 0.27% from the previous day and down 2.93% from the previous week; London gold closed at $4126.95 per ounce, up 1.63% from the previous day and down 0.24% from the previous week; Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 935.46 yuan per gram, down 0.16% from the previous day and down 2.68% from the previous week; Gold T + D closed at 930.00 yuan per gram, down 0.46% from the previous day and down 2.99% from the previous week. [2] - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions were 493,748 lots; Shanghai Gold's main contract positions increased by 85.01% from the previous day and 23.36% from the previous week; Gold TD positions decreased by 1.41% from the previous day and 3.07% from the previous week. LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, down 1.08% from the previous week; Shanghai Gold inventory was 18 tons, up 1.57% from the previous day and 1.32% from the previous week. [2] - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: The top 10 net long positions of futures companies in Shanghai Gold totaled 89,446 lots, a decrease of 1,166 lots; the top 10 net short positions totaled 17,856 lots, a decrease of 568 lots. [4] 3.2 Silver - **Core Logic**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased. [6] - **Data** - **Prices**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $51.07 per ounce, up 1.04% from the previous day and down 4.07% from the previous week; London silver closed at $52.20 per ounce, up 3.78% from the previous day and up 1.29% from the previous week; Shanghai Silver's main contract closed at 12,050.00 yuan per kilogram, down 0.81% from the previous day and down 4.27% from the previous week; Silver T + D closed at 12,030.00 yuan per kilogram, down 0.99% from the previous day and down 4.24% from the previous week. [7] - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions were 163,837 lots; Shanghai Silver's main contract positions increased by 2.76% from the previous day and 9.24% from the previous week; Silver TD positions increased by 0.28% from the previous day and 1.04% from the previous week. LBMA silver inventory was 26,255 tons, up 6.81% from the previous week; Comex silver inventory was 14,385 tons, down 3.28% from the previous week; Shanghai Silver inventory was 535 tons, down 8.38% from the previous week; Silver inventory in the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 775 tons, down 5.80% from the previous week; the total visible inventory was 41,991 tons, down 1.36% from the previous week. [7] - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: The top 10 net long positions of futures companies in Shanghai Silver totaled 127,521 lots, a decrease of 1,753 lots; the top 10 net short positions totaled 43,645 lots, an increase of 333 lots. [8] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute** - **Interest Rates**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, the discount rate is 4.00%, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, all down 0.25% from the previous value. [9] - **Other Indicators**: The Fed's total assets are $6631.098 billion, up $74.55 billion from the previous value; M2 year - on - year growth is 4.49%, up 0.07% from the previous value; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.44%, up 0.41% from the previous day and 1.67% from the previous week; the US dollar index is 99.60, up 0.06% from the previous day and 0.12% from the previous week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.37, up 2.78% from the previous day and down 5.41% from the previous week. [9] - **Geopolitical and Market Indicators** - **Hedging Attribute**: The geopolitical risk index is 90.76, down 1.74% from the previous week; the VIX index is 23.66, down 4.17% from the previous day and up 35.12% from the previous week. [12] - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index is 299.24, down 1.36% from the previous day and 1.03% from the previous week; the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1109, up 0.01% from the previous week. [12] - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves are 2304.46 tons, up 0.09% from the previous value; the US's are 8133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's are 36362.76 tons, unchanged. [11][12] - **IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves and Gold - to - Reserves Ratio**: The US dollar accounts for 57.80% of IMF foreign exchange reserves, up 0.88% from the previous value; the euro accounts for 19.83%, down 0.99%; the RMB accounts for 2.18%, down 0.04%. The global gold - to - foreign - exchange - reserves ratio is 22.18%, up 4.11% from the previous value; China's is 6.78%, up 4.40%; the US's is 78.64%, up 0.86%. [12]

智通财经APP获悉，美元迎来9月底以来最佳单日表现，因交易员纷纷加大对美联储维持利率不变的押 注。 周三，美元现货指数上涨0.5%，创下9月25日以来最大单日涨幅，收盘触及逾两周高位。美国劳工统计 局表示，11月非农就业报告将于12月16日发布，较美联储议息会议滞后近一周。由于缺乏10月和11月就 业数据，美联储将失去制定政策所需的关键参考依据。 "美元今日表现出强劲反弹势头，"美国银行策略师Alex Cohen表示，"我认为美元仍存在一些不对称的 上行风险，因为市场仍需数据来证明12月降息的合理性。" 美国劳工统计局定于周四发布9月非农就业报告。在经历美国历史上最长时间的联邦政府停摆后，相关 政府机构已开始逐步恢复经济数据发布工作。 美国银行的Cohen表示，在美国劳工统计局发布公告前，美元已受多重因素提振，包括英国下周将公布 预算案，市场对其财政状况的担忧拖累英镑走势。 交易员目前几乎排除了12月降息的可能性。美国劳工统计局周三透露，10月就业报告将不再单独发布， 相关数据将合并计入11月统计结果。 "鉴于缺乏及时的经济数据，美联储维持利率不变的概率显著上升，"富国银行纽约策略师Aroop Chatter ...

美国总统特朗普在公开场合升级了对美联储主席鲍威尔的批评，直言"我很想炒掉他"，并称其"极度无能"。 周三特朗普在美国华盛顿举行的美国-沙特投资论坛上，敦促美国财政部长贝森特加快寻找鲍威尔继任者的进程 。特朗普对坐在观众席的贝森特说： 你得努力点，贝森特。贝森特唯一搞砸的就是美联储这件事。 鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于明年5月到期，美联储理事任期则到2028年。特朗普还半开玩笑地对贝森特施压： 利率太高了，贝森特，如果你不快点搞定，我就要炒掉你。 正在牵头物色美联储新主席人选的贝森特近日称， 特朗普将在感恩节11月27日后与三位最终候选人会面，新的人选可能在12月25日圣诞节前宣布。 继任者搜寻进入冲刺阶段 周二据媒体报道，特朗普称美国政府对美联储最高职位已有一些"很好的人选"。 特朗普此前曾多次表示，贝森特将是他对美联储主席职位的首选，但贝森特告诉他更愿意留任美国财政部和国税局负责人。 目前贝森特已确定五位最终候选人名单： 美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特、前美联储理事沃什、现任美联储理事沃勒、负责监管的美联储副主席鲍曼，以及贝莱德高 管Rick Rieder。 特朗普周三的讲话首次暗示了白宫内部对鲍威尔去留问题的分歧。 ...

美国总统特朗普在公开场合升级了对美联储主席鲍威尔的批评，直言"我很想炒掉他"，并称其"极度无 能"。 周三特朗普在美国华盛顿举行的美国-沙特投资论坛上，敦促美国财政部长贝森特加快寻找鲍威尔继任 者的进程。特朗普对坐在观众席的贝森特说： 你得努力点，贝森特。贝森特唯一搞砸的就是美联储这件事。 鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于明年5月到期，美联储理事任期则到2028年。特朗普还半开玩笑地对贝森 特施压： 周二据媒体报道，特朗普称美国政府对美联储最高职位已有一些"很好的人选"。 他重申贝森特不想要当美联储主席，并继续抨击鲍威尔。 特朗普此前曾多次表示，贝森特将是他对美联储主席职位的首选，但贝森特告诉他更愿意留任美国财政 部和国税局负责人。 利率太高了，贝森特，如果你不快点搞定，我就要炒掉你。 正在牵头物色美联储新主席人选的贝森特近日称，特朗普将在感恩节11月27日后与三位最终候选人会 面，新的人选可能在12月25日圣诞节前宣布。 继任者搜寻进入冲刺阶段 目前贝森特已确定五位最终候选人名单：美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特、前美联储理事沃什、现任美联储理 事沃勒、负责监管的美联储副主席鲍曼，以及贝莱德高管Rick Rieder。 下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central bank governor of Indonesia indicates that the Federal Reserve's less dovish interest rate policy is contributing to increased market uncertainty [1] Group 1 - The shift in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy is noted as a significant factor affecting market conditions [1] - Increased market uncertainty is highlighted as a consequence of the Federal Reserve's policy changes [1]

行情回顾： 国际黄金周二（11月18日）触底反弹震荡收涨，开盘价4064.06美元/盎司，最高价4081.92美元/盎司，最低价 3997.99美元/盎司，收盘价4052.90美元/盎司。 日内操作区间： 消息面： 根据ADP研究公司周二发布的数据，在截至11月1日的四周内，美国公司平均每周裁减2500个工作岗位。ADP 的每周数据显示，本月许多大公司宣布了裁员计划，其中包括亚马逊和塔吉特。根据人事咨询公司Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.的一份报告，计划裁员人数创下20多年来任何10月份的最高纪录。 劳工统计局网站上发布的另一份数据显示，在截至10月18日的一周内，初请失业金的人数总计为23.2万人—— 这大致与9月中旬的申请水平一致。 民意调查显示，近一半的在职美国人表示，如果他们现在失业，需要四个月或更长时间才能找到一份类似质量 的工作。这使得那些传统上难以填补职位的雇主掌握了主动权，尤其是对于那些仍受困于大量空缺岗位和疫情 开始以来27%工资涨幅的企业而言。 美国劳工部一位发言人表示，劳工部计划在当地时间周四结束前补齐政府停摆期间缺失的周度初请失业金数 据。发言人Rya ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have led to a significant drop in spot gold and silver prices, with gold falling below $4040 per ounce and silver dropping over 4% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Spot gold experienced a dramatic decline, falling from a peak of $4210 per ounce to a low of $4031.82 per ounce within 24 hours, marking a drop of $180 and a daily decrease of over 3% [1]. - As of the latest report, spot gold is trading at $4082.159 per ounce, reflecting a daily decline of 2.13% [1]. - Spot silver has also seen a significant drop, currently trading at $50.517 per ounce after losing over 4% [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in December has risen to 54.2%, indicating a growing concern about potential rate cuts [1][2]. - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has decreased from 94.4% a month ago to 45.8% [2]. - Federal Reserve officials, including Logan and Kashkari, have expressed skepticism about supporting another rate cut in December, citing concerns over inflation and labor market conditions [2][3]. - Some officials, like Milan, argue that recent economic data supports a more dovish stance, suggesting that the Fed should consider rate cuts based on improving inflation and weakening job market data [3].

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.65% at 47,147.48 points, the S&P 500 down 0.05% at 6,734.11 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.13% at 22,900.59 points [2] - For the week, the Dow Jones rose 0.34%, the S&P 500 rose 0.08%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.45% [4] Employment and Economic Data - The U.S. Labor Department postponed the release of the September employment report to November 21, which will include adjusted wage data [4] - Initial jobless claims are estimated to have slightly decreased from 228,900 to 227,500, indicating a stable labor market [4] - Kansas City Fed President Esther George expressed concerns that further rate cuts could exacerbate inflation risks rather than support the labor market [4] Corporate Layoffs - Verizon Communications is planning to announce a layoff of approximately 15,000 to 20,000 employees, marking the largest layoff in the company's history [5] - This layoff is part of a corporate transformation strategy under new CEO Daniel Schulman, potentially reducing the workforce by up to 20% from around 100,000 employees as of February [5] Oil Price Movements - Oil prices increased due to geopolitical tensions, including an attack on a key Russian oil port by Ukraine and the seizure of a tanker by Iran [9] - WTI crude oil for December delivery rose 2.39% to $60.09 per barrel, while Brent crude for January delivery increased 2.19% to $64.39 per barrel [9] - Energy stocks saw collective gains, with ExxonMobil up over 1%, Chevron up over 1%, and ConocoPhillips up over 2% [9][10] Technology Sector Developments - Google is adjusting its advertising strategy to comply with EU antitrust requirements, opting not to sell parts of its ad tech business [6] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Nvidia and Microsoft both rising over 1%, while Amazon and Google saw declines of over 1% [6] Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. mostly declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 1.61% [11] - Notable declines included Futu Holdings down over 7% and JD.com down over 4%, while some companies like Canadian Solar and Tuya Smart saw gains [11]