美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员将于10月28日至29日举行下次会议。市场普遍预期，鉴于美国就业市 场持续疲软，继9月17日宣布降息25个基点后，美联储将再次降息25个基点。（完） 针对联邦政府"停摆"导致官方数据报告缺位，鲍威尔表示，美联储有自己的联系人和数据来源，以监测 美国经济健康状况。"根据我们掌握的数据，可以公平地说，自9月份会议以来，就业和通胀前景似乎没 有太大变化。" 新华社纽约10月14日电（记者徐静）美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔14日重申，美联储将根据经济前景 演变和风险平衡，以"一会一议"的方式制定政策，而不是遵循预先确定的路径。 鲍威尔当天在费城举办的美国商业经济协会年会上发表讲话时说，由于需要平衡就业与通胀目标之间的 矛盾，美联储利率政策不存在无风险路径。 ...

Core Insights - The crypto market experienced a downturn as traders reduced exposure ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's policy speech, with Bitcoin dropping to approximately $111,856, a 3% decline [1] - The global crypto market cap decreased by 3.2% to $3.8 trillion, indicating a cautious sentiment following a brief rebound [1] - Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies also faced significant declines, with Ethereum losing 4% to $4,012 and other notable drops in various altcoins [2] Federal Reserve Context - Powell's upcoming remarks are highly anticipated as they will provide insights into the Fed's stance on interest rates, especially after the recent rate cut of 0.25% to a range of 4.00%–4.25% [3] - The Fed's decision-making is complicated by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed key economic reports, making Powell's speech crucial for market direction [3] - The market is particularly focused on how Powell will balance the dual mandate of full employment and price stability, with inflation remaining above 2% for nearly five years [4] Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - There is a notable increase in short positions among large traders, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [5] - On-chain data reveals significant short activity, with one trader holding $98 million in shorts across various cryptocurrencies [5] - Despite the current cautious sentiment, corrections in the market often set the stage for potential breakout phases, with traders looking for resilient assets [6]

地缘政治风险持续，市场避险需求仍在，成为阶段性推升黄金价格的重要因素。 中国实物金需求明显上升，央行从去年11月重启增持黄金，已连续增持十个月。 【机构观点】 目前来看，推升本轮金价上涨的逻辑没有完全逆转，美联储的利率政策和避险情绪可能是短期扰动因 素，美联储需兼顾就业和通胀双重指标，更加注重稳就业，今年9月开启降息，点阵图显示年内还有两 次降息；同时地缘政治冲突的演变主导着市场避险情绪变化。根据美国最新数据，非农数据显示劳动力 市场意外疲软，非农就业人口大幅低于市场预期且大幅下降，失业率上升至4.3%。8月PCE数据显示通 胀数据持稳，核心PCE同比上涨2.9%，PCE同比上涨2.7%，均符合市场预期；8月CPI同比涨2.9%，与预 期一致，较上月的2.7%回升，是1月份以来最大涨幅。短期来看，市场对美联储10月降息预期已达90% 左右，关注本周的非农数据；美国政府停摆担忧和地缘政治风险加剧刺激避险情绪支撑金价，预计黄金 偏强震荡。 【黄金期货行情表现】 10月10日，沪金主力暂报901.22元/克，跌幅达1.29%，今日沪金主力开盘价918.06元/克，截至目前最高 921.40元/克，最低898.06元 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Derivatives Daily Report [2] - Date: September 29, 2025 [2] - Institute: Commodity Research Institute [1] - Researcher: Wang Luchen CFA [2] - Contact Information: Shanghai: 021 - 65789219; Beijing: 010 - 68569781; Email: wangluchen_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 2: Market Review Precious Metals Market - London Gold: Reached a new high of $3,819.81, currently trading around $3,808 [3] - London Silver: Reached a new high of $47.174 since 2011, currently trading around $46.88 [3] - Shanghai Gold: Reached a new high of 867 yuan, closing up 1.35% at 866.52 yuan/gram [3] - Shanghai Silver: Reached a new high of 11,008 yuan, closing up 3.92% at 10,939 yuan/kilogram [3] Other Markets - Dollar Index: Slightly lower, currently trading around 98 [4] - 10 - year US Treasury Yield: Declined, currently trading around 4.145% [5] - RMB Exchange Rate: Opened and closed higher against the US dollar, currently trading around 7.12 [6] Group 3: Important Information US Macroeconomic Data - August Core PCE Price Index: Annual rate was 2.9%, in line with expectations; monthly rate was 0.2%, in line with expectations [7] - August Personal Spending: Monthly rate was 0.6%, higher than the expected 0.5% [7] - September University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index: Final value was 55.1, lower than the expected 55.4 [7] - September One - year Inflation Rate Expectation: Final value was 4.7%, lower than the expected 4.8% [7] Trump Administration Movements - Federal Government Funding: Congress has not reached a consensus on fiscal appropriation. If no agreement is reached by September 30, some government agencies may shut down [7] - Trump's Statements: On the 27th, Trump said if the government has to shut down, then let it shut down. He will meet with four congressional leaders on Monday and attend a meeting with senior military generals on Tuesday [7] Federal Reserve Views - Richmond Fed President Barkin: Upcoming data will determine whether the Fed should further cut interest rates [8] - Fed Governor Bowman: Strongly supports the Fed only holding Treasury bonds and believes it is appropriate to ignore the one - time impact of tariffs [10] FedWatch - October: The probability of maintaining interest rates is 10.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 89.3% [10] - December: The probability of maintaining interest rates is 2.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 32.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 64.9% [10] Geopolitical Conflicts - Trump on Ukraine: On the 27th, according to the Wall Street Journal, Trump is open to relaxing restrictions on Ukraine's use of US - made long - range weapons to strike targets in Russia, but no specific actions were promised [10] Group 4: Logical Analysis - The US PCE data on Friday night was in line with market expectations, reducing the obstacles for another rate cut in October, leading to a decline in the dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield [11] - The US government faces a shutdown crisis, which may affect the release of subsequent non - farm and CPI reports and increase market uncertainty [11] - Geopolitical conflicts, such as the potential escalation of the Russia - Ukraine situation, have pushed up market risk - aversion sentiment [11] - Multiple factors suggest that precious metals are expected to continue their strong performance. However, with the approaching National Day holiday in China, it is advisable to reduce positions at high prices to lock in profits [11] Group 5: Trading Strategies Unilateral Trading - Before the holiday, take profits at high prices and hold light positions during the holiday [12] Arbitrage - Wait and see [13] Options - Buy deep out - of - the - money call options or collar call options to retain the possibility of profit during the holiday [13] Group 6: Data Reference Dollar Index and Precious Metals Trends - Charts show the historical trends of the dollar index against London Gold and London Silver [15][17] Real Yield and Precious Metals Trends - Charts show the historical trends of real yields against London Gold and London Silver [19][22] Domestic and Foreign Futures Trends - Charts show the historical trends of domestic and foreign gold and silver futures [26] Futures and Spot Trends - Charts show the historical trends of gold and silver futures and spot prices [28][29] Domestic - Foreign Price Differences - Charts show the historical trends of domestic gold and silver futures premiums [32][34] Gold - Silver Ratio - Charts show the historical trends of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Comex gold - silver ratios [41][43] ETF Holdings - Charts show the historical trends of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF holdings [45][46] Futures Open Interest - Charts show the historical trends of gold and silver futures open interest [48][49] Futures Inventories - Charts show the historical trends of Shanghai gold and silver futures inventories [50][51] Trading Volume - Charts show the historical trends of Shanghai gold and silver futures trading volume [52][53] TD Data - Charts show the historical trends of gold and silver TD deferred fees and delivery volumes [55][58][61] Treasury Yield and Breakeven Inflation Rate - Charts show the historical trends of nominal interest rates, inflation expectations, real interest rates, and US Treasury yields [59]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by various economic indicators and market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with a focus on upcoming U.S. labor market data that could impact gold's trajectory [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have shown resilience, with a recent increase to approximately $3788.86 per ounce, reflecting a 0.5% rise, despite a strong dollar supported by positive U.S. economic data [1]. - The market is closely monitoring key labor market indicators, including JOLTS job openings and the non-farm payroll report, which are expected to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and, consequently, gold prices [2][3]. - The overall outlook for gold remains positive due to strong central bank demand and concerns over U.S. debt and persistent inflation, which are expected to provide a support base for gold prices [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The technical analysis indicates that gold has experienced a strong upward trend, with a six-week consecutive increase, although there are risks of a pullback as it approaches the $3800 psychological level [3][5]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest a focus on selling during price rebounds around $3785-$3788 and buying on dips near $3750-$3752, with specific stop-loss levels set to manage risk [6][5]. - The market dynamics show a mixed signal across different time frames, indicating a need for careful entry points and risk management in trading strategies [5][6].

Market Performance - On September 26, the Shanghai gold futures contract reported a price of 862.50 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.88% from the previous day [1][2] - The opening price for the day was 857.70 CNY per gram, with a high of 865.28 CNY and a low of 857.38 CNY [1][2] Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on interest rate policies, indicating ongoing internal divisions regarding the need for further rate cuts [3] - Recent economic data showed an increase in U.S. personal consumption expenditures and GDP growth, leading to a reduced necessity for rate cuts by the Fed [4] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for September was recorded at 50.2, remaining above the growth threshold, while the Eurozone's PMI showed a decline [4] Fiscal and Monetary Conditions - The U.S. banking system's reserves fell below $3 trillion for the first time since January 1, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [5] - The U.S. fiscal deficit for August was reported at $344.79 billion, driven by increased spending and weaker corporate tax revenues [5] - The rising fiscal deficit and national debt, now at $37 trillion, continue to support precious metals [5] Political Developments - Significant political events have heightened global sensitivity, with the U.S. imposing new tariffs on pharmaceutical products and other goods, potentially benefiting gold in the long term [6] Precious Metals Market Dynamics - Precious metals, particularly silver, have seen notable price increases, driven by rising leasing rates in the silver market [7] - Short-term fluctuations in precious metals are influenced by the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields, with recent liquidity releases leading to recoveries in gold, silver, and equities [7] - Long-term support for precious metals remains strong due to global debt and geopolitical factors, although caution is advised for short-term trading volatility [7]

Core Insights - The pre-market futures are rising ahead of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - The PCE Index numbers for August were in line with expectations, showing a month-over-month increase of +0.3% and a year-over-year increase of +2.7% [2][5] - Personal Income and Spending for August exceeded consensus estimates, with Personal Income at +0.4% and Personal Spending at +0.6% [2][3] Economic Indicators - "Real" Spending, adjusted for inflation, increased by +0.3% in August, indicating consumer strength but still below the year-to-date high of +0.7% [3] - Core PCE month-over-month decreased to +0.2%, while year-over-year core PCE remained at +2.9%, slightly below the previous high of +2.95% [4][5] Implications for Monetary Policy - The current PCE data suggests that while inflation is present, it is not out of control, which may influence the Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates [6][9] - The Fed is unlikely to implement significant rate cuts, as it views the current rate of 4.00-4.25% as mildly restrictive, aiming for a target inflation rate of 2% [7] Market Expectations - The stock market is expected to react positively to the PCE report, with traders optimistic about the economic indicators [1][9] - A final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey is anticipated, with preliminary results showing a decline from previous months but still above earlier lows [8]

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold market is experiencing a stagnant performance, with prices fluctuating around $3742 per ounce, unable to maintain the mild upward trend from the previous trading day due to strong U.S. macroeconomic data and mixed expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate policy [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Despite external pressure from a strengthening dollar, gold prices are constrained by multiple factors, including cautious market sentiment ahead of the key U.S. inflation data, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, and expectations of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Recent global economic uncertainties, such as trade policy adjustments and escalating regional tensions, have enhanced gold's appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset, limiting its price decline [2] Group 2: U.S. Economic Data - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised the second quarter GDP annual growth rate to 3.8%, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 3.3%, indicating strong economic resilience [3] - Durable goods orders in August increased by 2.9%, reversing the previous month's decline and exceeding market expectations, while initial jobless claims also saw a decrease [3] - Divergent views among Federal Reserve officials regarding inflation pressures and monetary policy tightening are complicating the policy outlook, with current market pricing indicating a less than 90% probability of a rate cut in October and around 60% for December [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, gold prices are at a critical juncture, with key support levels between $3720 and $3715; a break below this range could trigger technical selling and push prices down to $3650 or even $3600 [4] - On the upside, gold faces resistance near $3753-$3754; a breakthrough could lead to a challenge of the historical high of $3790 set earlier in the week, and sustaining above the $3800 level would bolster confidence in a long-term upward trend for gold [4]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年09月26日15时47分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属金弱银强，沪金主力收涨0.01%，沪银主力收涨2.27%。①核心逻辑，短期避险方面，贸易协议分批达成，但美联储独 立性担忧再起；美国经济滞涨风险增加，就业走弱通胀温和，联储降息预期开始兑现。②避险属性方面，俄乌、中东等地缘异动仍 存。特朗普试图解雇美联储理事库克，库克诉特朗普越权罢免，引发外界担忧美联储的独立性。③货币属性方面，美联储降息25 个基点并暗示将进一步下调利率。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储在未来的利率决策中需要继续平衡高通胀和就业市场趋弱这两种 相互竞争的风险。美国上周初请失业金人数意外下降，美国第二季经济增速上修至近两年最快，削弱美联储进一步降息理据。目前 市场预期美联储10月降息25基点概率维持90%附近，且年内降息次数预期仍有2次左右。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品 属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币贬值利多国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，中长期阶梯上行。 | | | 净多或 | | | | 博客 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Investment Rating - Gold investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - Silver investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoint - The medium - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations have intensified, so it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [1] Other Key Points - Powell pointed out in a speech this week that the policy interest rate is still slightly restrictive and emphasized flexible adjustment based on data and economic prospects. Fed officials have a cautious attitude and are divided on subsequent interest rate cuts [1] - Attention should be paid to the US weekly initial jobless claims tonight, the PCE inflation data on Friday, and the progress of resolving the US government shutdown [1] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen believes that the Fed's interest rate has been too high for too long and that the US will enter an easing cycle. Powell should have signaled a 100 - 150 basis - point interest rate cut. FOMC voter Goolsbee warns against a series of interest rate cuts, while San Francisco Fed President Daly believes that further rate cuts may be needed [2] - As of September 19, global gold ETF holdings increased at the fastest pace in three years, with a total gold - holding volume of 3779.4 tons, reaching the highest level since August 2022. The net inflows in Q1 and Q2 this year were 226.6 tons and 170.5 tons respectively, far exceeding the same period last year [2] - As of September 19, the US's SPDR Gold Shares had the largest annual inflow of gold among global gold ETFs, with an annual increase in gold demand of 122.1 tons and a cumulative holding of about 994.4 tons. China's Huaan Yifu Gold ETF also had a significant inflow, with an annual increase in demand of 28.2 tons and a cumulative holding of about 74.7 tons [2]