现有指标显示，经济活动正以稳健步伐扩张。就业岗位新增数量维持低位，失业率呈现企稳迹象。通胀 水平仍处于偏高状态。 委员会致力于在长期内实现充分就业，并将通胀率维持在 2% 的目标水平。经济前景的不确定性依然较 高，委员会正密切关注其双重使命面临的双向风险。 为实现上述目标，委员会决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 3.5% 至 3.75% 不变。在考量联邦基金利 率目标区间后续调整的幅度和时机时，委员会将审慎评估最新经济数据、不断演变的经济前景以及风险 平衡状况。委员会坚定致力于推动充分就业实现，并促使通胀率回归 2% 的目标。 在评估货币政策的适当立场时，委员会将持续关注最新信息对经济前景的影响。若出现可能阻碍委员会 目标实现的风险，委员会将准备适时调整货币政策立场。委员会的评估将综合考量各类信息，包括劳动 力市场状况、通胀压力与通胀预期指标，以及金融和国际经济发展态势。 本次货币政策行动的赞成者为：主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔、副主席约翰・威廉姆斯、迈克尔・巴尔、米歇 尔・鲍曼、莉萨・库克、贝丝・哈马克、菲利普・杰斐逊、尼尔・卡什卡里、洛里・洛根、安娜・保尔 森。 反对者为斯蒂芬・米兰和克里斯托弗・沃勒，二人主张在本 ...

Pepperston分析师Michael Brown表示，政策声明几乎没有变化，尽管对经济状况的评估有所上调，以体 现"稳健"的增长步调。他表示，注意力将转向新闻发布会，届时美联储主席鲍威尔可能会提到，目前的 联邦基金利率已处于中性利率可能存在的合理估算范围内，但他可能会坚决回避任何关于其5月之后的 问题。 ...

（注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 市场普遍预期，美联储将暂停此前连续三次的降息步伐，维持联邦基金利率目标区间在3.5%—3.75%不 变。本次会议的核心焦点已转向降息重启时点、政策声明措辞调整及政治因素对美联储决策独立性的影响。 据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）"美联储观察"工具数据， 当前市场预期美联储1月降息概率仅为2.8%，维持 利率不变的概率高达97.2%，多数交易员同时认为3月、4月会议降息可能性极低 。 这一预期与美联储官 员近期表态高度一致，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯、美联储理事迈克尔·巴尔等多位核心成员均表示，当前货币 政策处于"良好位置"，无需急于调整，为暂停降息奠定了基调。 自从去年9月以来，美联储已连续三次会议降息，将联邦基金利率目标区间降至了3.5%-3.75%——该区间 目前来看正符合官员们中性利率政策的立场预期，即既不刺激也不抑制经济增长。 来源：证券时报、财联社 2026.01. 28 微信编辑 | 雨林 第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 财 经 热 点 。 若 您 掌 握 公 司 动 态 、 行 业 趋 势 、 金 融 事 件 等 有 价 值 的 线 索 ， 欢 迎 提 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is expected to be a straightforward decision with no changes to the policy interest rate, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75% [1][2] Group 1: Meeting Expectations - The majority of market participants anticipate that the policy interest rate will remain unchanged during the FOMC meeting [1] - The meeting is not expected to release a new dot plot or economic forecasts, and any modifications to the post-meeting statement are unlikely to convey substantial policy signals [1][2] Group 2: Voting Dynamics - Committee member Miran may vote against the decision, advocating for a rate cut of 25 or 50 basis points, while Bowman and Waller's voting positions are also of interest [2] - Bowman has indicated a likelihood of supporting a rate cut but remains open to pausing if economic conditions change, while Waller has expressed concerns about the labor market despite a recent drop in unemployment to 4.4% [2] Group 3: Statement Adjustments - The statement is expected to adjust the description of economic growth from "moderate" to "robust," while employment growth may still be described as slow but with a more stable outlook on unemployment [2] - Inflation is likely to continue being described as "slightly elevated," and the committee may remove references to rising employment downside risks [3] Group 4: Forward Guidance - The statement may eliminate the term "additional" from the phrase regarding adjustments to the target interest rate range, indicating a potential shift in forward guidance [3] - References to reserve management purchases are also expected to be removed, with asset balance sheet strategies not being a primary topic of discussion in the upcoming meeting [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is under criminal investigation by the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia regarding the renovation of the Federal Reserve's Washington headquarters [1]. Group 1: Investigation and Legal Threats - The U.S. Department of Justice has issued a subpoena to the Federal Reserve, threatening prosecution against Powell [4]. - Former President Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell and threatened to sue him, particularly over the costly renovation project of the Federal Reserve building, which Trump claims cost billions [5]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - On December 10, 2025, Powell announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking a total reduction of 75 basis points over the last three meetings, aimed at stabilizing the labor market and addressing inflation [5]. - Powell indicated that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expects the federal funds rate to be 3.4% by the end of 2026 and 3.1% by the end of 2027, consistent with previous forecasts [6]. - Powell attributed the current inflation rate exceeding the Fed's 2% target primarily to increased import tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, suggesting that the tariff impact may be a one-time price increase [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing criminal investigation against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell related to the renovation of the Federal Reserve's headquarters, initiated by the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia [1]. Group 1: Investigation and Legal Threats - The U.S. Department of Justice has issued a subpoena to the Federal Reserve, threatening to pursue legal action against Powell [4]. - Former President Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell and threatened to sue him, particularly over the renovation project that allegedly cost billions [5]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - On December 10, 2025, Powell announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking a total reduction of 0.75 percentage points over the last three meetings, aimed at stabilizing the labor market and addressing inflation [6]. - Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments since September 2025 have positioned it within a neutral expectation range, allowing for better determination of future interest rate adjustments based on evolving economic data [6]. - The median forecast for the federal funds rate is projected to be 3.4% by the end of 2026 and 3.1% by the end of 2027, consistent with previous predictions [6]. - Powell attributed the current inflation rate exceeding the Fed's 2% target primarily to increased import tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, suggesting that the tariff impact may be a one-time price increase [7].

Core Viewpoint - Recent factors have constrained U.S. Treasury yields within a narrow trading range, as noted by RJ Gallo of Federated Hermes [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has lowered its target federal funds rate to a neutral range and indicated a tendency to adopt a wait-and-see approach [1] - The market is anticipating the nomination of a potentially dovish Federal Reserve chair by President Trump [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Events - Ongoing geopolitical events are evolving, but the market believes these events are unlikely to alter the recent macroeconomic trajectory [1]

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：李桐 美联储理事米兰周四表示，他希望今年降息150个基点，以提振美国劳动力市场。他的任期将于1月底结 束。 米兰表示，鉴于他认为核心通胀率可能在2.3%左右，美联储官员还有进一步降息的空间。 美联储理事米兰周四表示，他希望今年降息150个基点，以提振美国劳动力市场。他的任期将于1月底结 束。 米兰表示，鉴于他认为核心通胀率可能在2.3%左右，美联储官员还有进一步降息的空间。 "我希望降息150个基点。这在很大程度上取决于我对通胀的看法。"米兰称，"核心通胀率与我们的目标 相差不大，这很好地表明了中期整体通胀率的走向。" 米兰的最新发言更为明确地界定了他对今年降息目标的看法。他周二表示，"今年的降息幅度将远远超 过100个基点"。 米兰呼吁降息150个基点，与美联储19位决策者在12月议息会议结束时公布的、对2026年底合适联邦基 金利率的最低预测一致。该匿名预测认为联邦基金利率区间届时将达到2.00%-2.25%，较次低预测低了 50个基点。当前美联储政策利率区间为3.50%-3.75%。 "我希望降息150个基点。这在很大程度上取决于我对通胀的看法。"米兰称 ...

Group 1 - Fitch Ratings expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice in the first half of 2026, lowering the upper limit of the federal funds rate to 3.25% [1]

Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's December meeting didn't wake up the stock market. At the Dec. 9–10 policy meeting, the FOMC opted to lower its target range for the federal-funds rate by quarter of a point to between 3.5% and 3.75%. The S&P 500 was still hovering around breakeven. The Dow was down 52 points, or 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite was down slightly. All three were in the same trading range they have hovered in all day on Tuesday. ...