Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that several participants believe the current federal funds rate may not be significantly higher than the neutral rate [1] Group 1 - Several Federal Reserve participants expressed that the existing federal funds rate is likely to remain close to the neutral rate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that all participants agree it is appropriate to maintain the federal funds rate within the current target range [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Monetary Policy** - All attendees of the meeting believe that keeping the federal funds rate steady is suitable [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate to return to zero, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding future interest rates and the implications for monetary policy [3][4][6]. Group 1: Interest Rate Projections - Research indicates a 9% probability that the federal funds rate will hit the "zero lower bound" within the next seven years, with current interest rate uncertainty being a significant factor [4]. - The likelihood of rates returning to zero within the next two years is estimated at 1% [6]. - The Federal Reserve has raised the federal funds rate target range to 5.25%-5.5% from March 2022 to July 2023, moving significantly away from the zero lower bound [7]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Economic Indicators - Market discussions are ongoing regarding the timing of potential interest rate cuts and the terminal rate level, with Goldman Sachs economists predicting a possible rate cut in September [8]. - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the terminal federal funds rate down to 3%-3.25%, which remains above the zero lower bound [9]. - The chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs estimates a slightly higher than 50% chance of a rate cut in September, with further cuts expected in October and December [8][10].

Core Insights - The probability of the federal funds rate reaching the "zero lower bound" (ZLB) in the next seven years is estimated at 9%, with current rate uncertainty exacerbating this risk [2] - Despite higher expected interest rates compared to the past decade, significant uncertainty remains, keeping the ZLB risk notable [2] - Empirical evidence suggests that changes in interest rate expectations are the primary drivers of ZLB risk [2] Historical Context - The Federal Reserve first lowered rates to the 0%-0.25% range during the 2008 financial crisis to stimulate economic recovery, maintaining this level for seven years [3] - Rates were again reduced to zero in response to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, lasting for two years [3] - Recent research indicates that the risk of returning to ZLB persists, influenced by complex economic conditions, geopolitical conflicts, and global economic sluggishness [3]

KVB交易平台发现美联储的一众研究者，其中包括有着 "三把手" 之称的纽约联储主席约翰・威廉姆斯，他们来自纽约联储和 旧金山联储，经过深入研究后得出一个重要结论：美联储不能想当然地认为，其制定的基准利率在未来会一直远离零这个水 平。 在本周一发布的一篇博客文章里，这些研究者明确指出，在接下来的七年时间里，联邦基金利率有 9% 的可能性会触及所谓的 "零利率下限"。而当下利率存在着很高的不确定性，这一因素在很大程度上加剧了这种风险的出现。 威廉姆斯和他的合著者在文章中写道："和过去十年的情况比起来，现在的数据表明，市场对于未来利率水平的预期处于较高 的位置。" 但他们同时强调，即便如此，由于近期各种不确定性因素不断增加，从中长期来看，零利率下限所带来的风险依然 十分明显，其程度和 2018 年时不相上下。 从 2022 年 3 月到 2023 年 7 月，为了应对居高不下的通胀，美联储连续 11 次加息，将联邦基金利率的目标区间提高到了 5.25% 至 5.5%，这使得利率大幅脱离了零下限。美联储主席鲍威尔也曾表示，经过这一系列大幅加息，美联储在面对各种冲击时，有 了更多政策应对的空间。 从去年 9 月到现在， ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve cannot assume that its benchmark interest rate will not drop to zero again in the future, with a 9% probability of hitting the "zero lower bound" within the next seven years [1] - Current interest rate uncertainty is a significant factor contributing to this risk, with expectations for future rates remaining high compared to the past decade [1] - The analysis is based on interest rate derivatives linked to short-term key rate expectations, such as the Secured Overnight Financing Rate [1] Group 2 - There is a 1% probability that interest rates will return to zero within the next two years, following the Fed's previous rate cuts during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic [2] - Since March 2022, the Fed has raised the federal funds rate target range to 5.25% to 5.5% in response to high inflation, moving significantly away from the zero lower bound [2] - Discussions are ongoing regarding the timing of potential rate cuts and the level of the terminal rate, with recent comments indicating frustration from the President regarding the Fed's current policy stance [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs economists now expect the Fed to potentially cut rates in September, three months earlier than previously predicted, due to lower-than-expected impacts from tariff policies and signs of a slowing job market [3] - The likelihood of a rate cut in September is estimated to be slightly above 50%, with expectations for cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December [3] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the terminal federal funds rate down to 3% to 3.25%, indicating a shift in expectations while maintaining that the economy could still achieve maximum employment and 2% inflation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's report indicates a 9% probability that the benchmark interest rate could drop to zero within the next seven years due to increased uncertainty in current interest rates [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Projections** - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve cannot assume that the benchmark loan rate will not reach zero at some point in the future [1] - Current data suggests that future interest rate expectations are higher compared to the past decade, but increased uncertainty poses significant risks of hitting the zero lower bound (ZLB) in the medium to long term [1] - **Historical Context** - The risk of reaching the zero lower bound is noted to be similar to levels observed in 2018, indicating a potential return to previous economic conditions [1]

同时公布的美国5月JOLTs职位空缺从前值739.1万人升至776.9万人，显示出美国就业市场的韧性。 就在上述数据公布的同时，美联储主席鲍威尔在一次研讨会上表示，美国经济处于相当良好的状态。上述经 济数据在一定程度上支撑美联储在7月议息会议上继续维持美国联邦基金利率水平不变。 鲍威尔认为，在今年夏季美国经济的通货膨胀率可能会出现明显的反弹。正是基于这样的预判，美联储迟迟 没有重新启动降息进程。在鲍威尔看来，美国经济正处于适度具有限制性的状态。 不过，特朗普总统一直以来都在催促美联储降息。这也许是因为特朗普总统担心美国经济会出现加速下行的 情况，他希望通过宽松的货币政策来对冲经济的不利因素。 笔者认为，美国经济的通货膨胀未来很可能会继续逐步下降，而非出现大幅反弹，经济的下行也存在着加速 的可能性，届时美联储再采取宽松的货币政策则可能会再次滞后于市场。 如果美国经济未来出现严重的疲软，在明年美联储主席更换后，美联储很可能会加速降息，甚至会再次将美 国联邦基金利率水平降低至零。 7月1日公布的数据显示，美国6月ISM制造业PMI从前值48.5小幅上升至49，仍然处于荣枯线以下，但是有所 改善。 JerryZang ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration has threatened Harvard University with the loss of all federal funding due to alleged violations of federal civil rights laws regarding the treatment of Jewish and Israeli students [1] - Negotiations between Harvard University and the White House have reached an impasse, jeopardizing the university's financial status and disrupting its foreign student recruitment plans [1] - The Trump administration has indicated that if Harvard does not make sufficient changes immediately, it will result in the university losing all federal financial resources, with potential cuts amounting to billions of dollars in research funding [1] Group 2 - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the entire committee for not lowering interest rates, claiming that the U.S. could save trillions in interest costs if they acted appropriately [2] - Trump has previously threatened to remove Powell from his position due to the Fed's reluctance to lower rates as he requested, with the Fed maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting [2]

上个交易日有效的联邦基金利率报4.33%，之前一天报4.33%。 据美国纽约联储数据，上个交易日（6月27日）担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）报4.39%，之前一天报 4.40%。 ...