美联储官员此前对美国关税政策对通胀的影响和12月是否进一步降息出现明显分歧，但美国就业市场数 据恶化推高降息预期。 美联储发布的经济预测摘要显示，与9月份相比，美联储官员对2025年-2028年美国经济增速预测中位数 均走高，对明年经济增速预测从1.8%提高至2.3%。美联储官员对今年和明年失业率的预测维持不变， 而对今年和明年通胀预期均小幅下调。 值得注意的是，美联储官员对今后三年联邦基金利率的预测维持不变，对明年利率水平的预测分布较为 分散。预测显示，今年和明年可能分别再降息25个基点，但美联储内部对继续降息的分歧较大。 新华财经纽约12月10日电（记者刘亚南）美国联邦储备委员会10日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布 将联邦基金利率目标区间降至3.5%至3.75%。这一决定符合市场预期，也是美联储货币政策会议自9月 以来连续第三次降息，也是自2024年9月启动本轮降息周期以来第六次降息。 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明说，经济活动在温和扩张，新增就业今年放缓，失 业率在9月升高，通胀在今年早些时候走高后依然在一定程度上处于高位。美国经济前景面临的不确定 性依然处于高位，就业市场下行风险在最 ...

为支持自身目标，并考虑到风险平衡的变化，委员会决定，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 0.25个百分点，至3.50%（3.75%）至3.75%（4%）。在考虑对联邦基金利率目标范围进一步 调整的幅度和时机方面，委员会将仔细评估未来的数据、不断变化的前景和风险平衡。（委 员会决定于12月1日结束其对持有证券总量的缩减。）委员会坚定承诺支持最大化就业，以 及让通胀回到其目标2%。 当地时间12月10日周三，美联储如期降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%至3.75%。 本次声明中，美联储对经济前景的表述较10月会议略有调整，但变化不大： 对于未来联邦基金利率目标范围的调整，美联储在12月的声明中增加了"幅度和时机"表述。 本次声明的一个重要变化是，美联储新增了表述"委员会认为准备金余额已降至充足水平，并将根据需 要购买短期美国国债，以维持持续充足的准备金供应"。这一点与美联储同日还宣布的将买短期美债400 亿美元是一致的。美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，美国国债购买规模在未来几个月内可能会维 持在较高水平。 值得注意的是，本次会议上，有三张反对票，比10月会议多了一张反对票，凸显美联储内部分歧： 声 ...

Key Points Bitcoin's greatest bull runs have, in the past, coincided with a low federal funds rate. The Federal Reserve could soon cut that interest rate again. This is just one of many factors affecting Bitcoin, but it's a big one. 10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin › In every market, price is one of the main signals, and for the U.S. dollar itself, that signal is the federal funds rate, which is the short-term interest rate the Federal Reserve targets for overnight lending between banks. As ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has cut the federal funds rate three times in 2024 and recently made a second cut in 2025, leading to a decline in deposit interest rates, including money market account (MMA) rates [1] - The national average rate for MMAs is currently 0.59%, while top high-yield accounts offer rates exceeding 4% APY, significantly higher than the national average [2][9] Group 1: Money Market Account Rates - The importance of comparing MMA rates is emphasized, as interest rates vary widely among banks, particularly online banks and credit unions, which offer competitive rates [3][4] - Online banks have lower overhead costs due to their web-based operations, allowing them to provide higher deposit rates and lower fees [4] - Credit unions, as not-for-profit entities, also offer competitive rates and fewer fees, although membership requirements may apply [5] Group 2: Features and Considerations of Money Market Accounts - Money market accounts are suitable for short-term savings goals, offering higher interest rates than regular savings accounts and easier access to funds compared to CDs [5][7] - MMAs are considered low-risk and are FDIC-insured up to $250,000 per depositor, per institution, making them safer than money market funds [6] - Many MMAs require a minimum balance to earn the highest advertised rates, and failure to maintain this balance may result in fees or lower rates [6] Group 3: Access and Usage of Funds - While MMAs allow for general access to funds, they may limit the number of transactions per month, which is a consideration for those needing frequent access [7] - MMAs are recommended for individuals looking to earn more interest than a regular savings account without locking funds in a CD, provided they can maintain the minimum balance [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Goldman Sachs research team, led by Jan Hatzius, indicates that the U.S. labor market is showing significant signs of cooling, strongly suggesting a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month [1] Labor Market Analysis - U.S. job growth in September plummeted to 39,000, significantly below market expectations [1] - The unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20 to 24 surged to 8.5%, highlighting structural impacts from AI technology applications and productivity improvements [1] Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the U.S. economy will rebound to a growth rate of 2% to 2.5% by 2026, driven by easing tariff policies, tax cuts, and a more accommodative financial environment [1] - The firm anticipates that the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts in January 2026, followed by further easing in March and June, ultimately lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3% to 3.25% [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has cut the federal funds rate three times in 2024 and recently made a second cut in 2025, leading to a decline in deposit interest rates, including money market account (MMA) rates [1] - The national average rate for MMAs is currently 0.59%, while top high-yield accounts offer rates exceeding 4% APY, significantly higher than the national average [2][9] - Online banks and credit unions are highlighted as the best sources for competitive MMA rates due to their lower overhead costs and not-for-profit structures, respectively [4][5] Group 1: Money Market Account Rates - The national average MMA rate is 0.59%, but high-yield accounts can offer rates over 4% APY, which is more than six times the national average [2] - Online banks typically provide the best MMA rates due to reduced operational costs, allowing them to offer higher deposit rates [4] - Credit unions also offer competitive rates, often ranging from 3% to 4% APY, but may have membership requirements [5] Group 2: Account Features and Considerations - Money market accounts are considered low-risk and are FDIC-insured up to $250,000 per depositor, per institution, making them safer than money market funds [6] - Many MMAs require a minimum balance to earn the highest advertised rates, and failing to maintain this balance may result in fees or lower rates [6] - While MMAs allow for easier access to funds compared to CDs, they may limit the number of transactions per month, which is a consideration for those needing frequent access [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's stance is oscillating between "dovish" and "hawkish," creating uncertainty for investors regarding aggressive rate cuts in the U.S. next year, despite political pressure for rapid policy easing [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - In October, the Federal Reserve lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, but Chairman Powell's comments indicated a hawkish tone [1] - Market speculation has arisen that the extent of rate cuts may not be as significant as previously anticipated, with expectations for the federal funds rate in 2026 rising above 3% [1] - The likelihood of a rate cut in December dropped from 90% to 40% following Powell's October remarks [1] Group 2: Political Pressure and Historical Context - The Federal Reserve is under substantial political pressure from the White House to ease policies quickly, which may lead to a response similar to historical instances where presidential influence prompted faster rate cuts [2][3] - Historical analysis suggests that political interactions between U.S. presidents and Federal Reserve chairs often result in quicker rate cuts, with estimates indicating an additional 1.0 to 1.5 percentage points of cuts in the next 12 months due to current pressures [3] Group 3: Economic Implications - While rate cuts may provide a temporary boost to real GDP growth in the short term, they are unlikely to sustain long-term economic activity, leading to a rapid decline in growth once cuts cease [4] - Aggressive rate cuts influenced by political pressure have historically resulted in higher inflation, which could create a vicious cycle unless the Federal Reserve implements significant rate hikes [5] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - The potential for significant rate cuts amidst inflation running at 3% and an economy growing at nearly 4% annually poses high risks [6] - Despite public criticism, Federal Reserve officials continue to assert their independence, and if the economy slows significantly, substantial rate cuts may be warranted without leading to excessive inflation [6]

目前投资者焦点已转向降息幅度（25bp还是更激进）、2026年路径以及鲍威尔12月新闻发布会口风，而 非是否降息本身。 今日周一(11月24日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于49.92一线上方，今日开盘于50.01美元/盎司，截至 发稿，国际白银暂报49.97美元/盎司，下跌0.07%，最高触及50.36美元/盎司，最低下探49.68美元/盎 司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在智利央行百年庆典会议上发表讲话，明确表示："当前货币政策仅构成温和限 制……我认为近期仍有进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间的空间，使政策立场更接近中性水平，从而维 持两大目标之间的平衡"。 作为FOMC副主席、永久投票成员兼主席鲍威尔最密切的政策盟友，威廉姆斯的表态被视为极具风向标 意义。讲话发布后不到一小时，CME FedWatchTool显示的12月降息25bp概率从39.1%急速攀升，最高触 及75%，盘中稳定在70%-73%区间，最终收在72%以上。 威廉姆斯强调，当前联邦基金利率（3.75%-4.00%）仅构成"温和限制"，虽较此前有所减轻，但仍有进 一步调整空间；就业市 ...

"威廉姆斯的此番言论表明，再次降息仍有可能。目前美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）正试 图在12月9日至10日于华盛顿召开的政策会议前，推动意见分歧的决策者们达成共识。 关注我，更多股市资讯告诉你！ 11月22日，欢迎来到股市早观点，我们来看看今天有哪些消息热点？ 美联储"鸽声"提振市场。纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯周五在智利圣地亚哥发表演讲时，在演 讲稿中指出，就业面临的下行风险有所增加，而通胀面临的上行风险已有所缓解。威廉姆斯表示："我 认为当前的货币政策具有适度限制性，尽管相比我们近期采取行动之前 ，限制性有所减弱。因此，我仍然认为，在短期内，联邦基金利率目标区间有进一步调整的空间，通过 调整可使政策立场更接近中性区间，从而维持实现我们两大目标之间的平衡。 ...

【导读】 纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示，鉴于劳动力市场疲软，他认为美联储在短期内仍有再次降息的空间 中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹啊，全球资本市场风雨飘摇之际，美联储出手了。 纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示，美联储有可能在12月再次降息。 这位具有重要影响力的决策者在智利发表讲话时称，相比通胀风险，他现在更担心劳动力市场面临的压力，这与联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）中一些偏鸽派成员的观点一致。 约翰·威廉姆斯被称为 美联储"三号人物"。作为纽约联储主席，他同时担任联邦公开市场委员会负责制定利率政策的副主席，拥有永久投票权，在美联 储决策中具有重要影响力。 他表示，贸易关税可能为当前通胀率贡献了约0.5到0.75个百分点，但他并不认为关税会引发第二轮或其他连锁的价格传导效应。 截至今年9月的12个月里，美国CPI同比上涨3%，这也让部分官员对通胀前景仍存忧虑。 威廉姆斯强调，美联储必须把通胀率重新拉回2%的目标，但在这个过程中也要尽量避免对劳动力市场造成更大伤害。 威廉姆斯表示： "展望未来，把通胀在可持续的基础上恢复到我们2%的长期目标是当务之急。同样重要的是，我们必须在实现这一目标的 同时，不给最大就业 ...