投票支持本次货币政策行动的有主席杰罗姆·H·鲍威尔（Jerome H. Powell）、副主席约翰·C·威廉姆斯 （John C. Williams）、迈克尔·S·巴尔（Michael S. Barr）、米歇尔·W·鲍曼（Michelle W. Bowman）、苏 珊·M·柯林斯（Susan M. Collins）、丽莎·D·库克（Lisa D. Cook）、奥斯坦·D·古尔斯比（Austan D. Goolsbee）、菲利普·N·杰斐逊（Philip N. Jefferson）、阿尔贝托·G·穆萨勒姆（Alberto G. Musalem）、杰 弗里·R·施密德（Jeffrey R. Schmid）和克里斯托弗·J·沃勒（Christopher J. Waller）。投票反对的为斯蒂芬 ·I·米兰（Stephen I. Miran），他倾向于在本次会议上将联邦基金利率目标区间下调50个基点。 最新指标显示，今年上半年经济活动的增长有所放缓。就业增速减慢，失业率略有上升，但仍处于低 位。通胀有所回升并依然偏高。 委员会的目标是实现最大就业和长期2%的通胀。关于经济前景的不确定性依然高企，委员会关注其双 重使命 ...

Here’s a look at how today’s high-yield savings account rates stack up. The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate three times in late 2024, which means deposit rates are now falling. It's more important than ever to ensure you're earning the highest rate possible on your savings, and a high-yield savings account could be the solution. These accounts pay more interest than the typical savings account — as much as 4% APY and higher. Not sure where to find the best savings interest rates today? Read on ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's adjustments to the federal funds rate significantly influence borrowing costs across various loan types, including personal, auto, and private student loans [1][3][4] Impact on Loan Rates - The federal funds rate serves as a benchmark for lenders, affecting how much they charge for overnight lending, which in turn impacts consumer loan interest rates [3][4] - Between February 2022 and August 2023, the Fed raised the federal funds rate from 0.08% to 5.33% to combat inflation, leading to higher loan rates that remain elevated despite some rate cuts in 2024 [4][5] - The prime rate, which is typically set about three percentage points above the federal funds rate, also influences consumer loan rates, particularly for creditworthy borrowers [4] Personal Loan Rates - Average personal loan rates have remained high, decreasing slightly from 12.49% in February 2024 to 11.57% currently for two-year loans [5][6] - Most personal loans have fixed rates, meaning existing borrowers will not see changes in their rates, while new borrowers may face higher rates compared to previous years [6] Student Loan Rates - Federal student loan rates are set by Congress and are not directly influenced by the Fed, while private student loan rates are affected by the federal funds rate [7][9] - Federal student loan rates were particularly low at 2.75% for the 2020-21 academic year but have increased to 6.39% for the 2025-26 academic year [8] Auto Loan Rates - Auto loan rates are also influenced by the federal funds rate, with average rates for new car loans at 7% and used car loans at 10.7% as of August 2025 [11] - Various factors, including credit score and vehicle type, also play a role in determining auto loan rates [11] Strategies for Securing Competitive Rates - Improving credit scores and financial profiles can enhance the chances of securing better loan rates [13][15] - Shopping around with multiple lenders and comparing repayment terms can help borrowers find the best offers [17][19] - Timing borrowing decisions based on the Fed's rate changes can also be beneficial, particularly if rates are expected to decrease [20]

Economic Data Summary - Business inventories for July increased by 0.2%, matching the final June read [1] - The yield curve has steepened, with two-year note yields down by approximately three basis points, while 10-year yields remain stable [2] Housing Market Insights - Homebuilder sentiment in September remained unchanged at 32 on the NAHB index, which is below the neutral level of 50, indicating negative sentiment [2][3] - The index has been in a low range since May, with a previous reading of 41 in September of the previous year [3] - Builders are optimistic about lower mortgage rates potentially increasing buyer activity, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropping to 6.25% [3] - NAHB's chief economist anticipates a federal funds rate cut, which could lower interest rates for builders and developers [4] - Current sales conditions remained at 34, while buyer traffic decreased to 21, and future sales expectations rose to 45, the highest since March [4] - 39% of builders reported cutting prices in September, an increase from 37% in August, marking the highest percentage in the post-COVID period [5]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street strategists are divided on whether the U.S. financing market will become more accommodative in the coming months, primarily due to increased volatility in overnight borrowing costs [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - A series of events is driving up short-term interest rates, including the U.S. Treasury issuing more short-term bonds to rebuild cash reserves and the Federal Reserve reducing its balance sheet [1] - The use of key overnight lending tools by the central bank has dropped to nearly zero, raising investor concerns about the sharp rise in borrowing costs [1] - The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) has been above the Federal Reserve's target rate since late August [1] Group 2: Divergent Views from Major Banks - JPMorgan, led by Teresa Ho, expects overnight rates to ease by year-end and recommends traders to buy December SOFR futures while selling equivalent federal funds futures [3] - JPMorgan anticipates the spread between SOFR (currently at 4.42%) and the 30-day federal funds rate (currently at 4.33%) to narrow by the end of 2025 [3] - Citigroup, led by Jason Williams, believes financing costs will remain high until year-end and suggests traders short December SOFR contracts relative to federal funds [4] Group 3: Future Projections - Citigroup expects SOFR to gradually rise in the coming months, citing guidance from the Treasury regarding increased Treasury bill auction sizes in October [4] - Barclays has exited a position betting on a narrowing spread between September SOFR and federal funds, indicating ongoing upward pressure on financing costs [4] - Morgan Stanley strategists believe market conditions may ease as soon as next month, suggesting a long position on the SOFR relative to federal funds spread for October 2025 [4] Group 4: Consensus on Historical Context - Both JPMorgan and Citigroup agree that the situation from September 2019, when financing costs surged and the Federal Reserve injected hundreds of billions into the financing market, is unlikely to repeat [5]

格隆汇9月15日｜投资管理公司Payden & Rygel表示，美联储本周降息25个基点还是50个基点只是"次要 分歧"。其分析师指出，关键在于当前劳动力市场处于脆弱平衡状态——这与2024年的情况截然不同。 他们表示："为避免平衡崩溃，美联储应如理事沃勒近期演讲所建议的'尽快推进降息'。"该公司对未来 12-15个月的经济展望表明，联邦基金利率应逐步接近3%。目前美联储设定的联邦基金利率目标区间为 4.25%-4.50%。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Tom Williams / CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at a news conference after the most recent meeting in July. As the next meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee approaches, investors, economists, and policymakers are trying to predict how the central bankers will react to a weakening labor market and stubborn unemployment. When is the next Fed meeting? The next meeting of the FOMC will take place over Sept. 16 and 17. During this meeting, the members will ...

智通财经APP获悉，今夜，美国8月CPI数据将重磅出炉，债券交易员们正为此做准备，或将削弱他们对 美联储从本月开始并持续到2026年的一系列大幅降息的押注。疲软的就业数据和温和的生产者价格数据 让交易员们认为，美联储在9月16日至17日的会议上降息25个基点已是板上钉钉，到年底可能还会有两 次这样的降息动作。但除此之外，市场对经济风险平衡的看法已经发生变化，目前的市场定位倾向于认 为官员们最终会将利率降至被视为中性水平以下，以至于政策会刺激经济增长以避免衰退。 这标志着一个巨大的变化，因为在过去一年的大部分时间里，由于通胀居高不下，交易员们一直犹豫是 否要对如此大规模的宽松政策进行押注。这种情况使得人们对将于美东时间周四公布的美国消费者价格 指数报告的关注度更高，预计该报告将显示核心年度读数远高于美联储的目标。在长达一个月的反弹将 美国两年期国债收益率推低至4月以来最低水平之后，风险在于投资者可能过于乐观了。 "前端已经为更疲软的经济定价，而没有关注通胀，"Columbia Threadneedle总回报债券基金的投资组合 经理埃德·阿尔-侯赛尼表示。"如果关注点回到通胀上，如果数据很高，前端将有点脆弱。" ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is engaged in a heated debate regarding the neutral interest rate (r-star) amidst challenges of weakening economic momentum and liquidity management [1][2] - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that structural factors limiting long-term interest rates remain strong, suggesting that the natural equilibrium rate of the U.S. economy is still hovering at pre-pandemic lows [1][2] - The current target range for the federal funds rate is maintained at 4.25%-4.5%, with median forecasts for the neutral rate around 3%, reflecting significant internal divergence among policymakers [2] Group 2 - Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that employment concerns have become a key consideration, opening the door for a potential rate cut in September due to rising unemployment [3] - The Fed's balance sheet reduction process is entering a critical phase, with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan warning of potential temporary pressures in the money market [4] - The current reserve balance in the banking system stands at $3.3 trillion, indicating substantial room before reaching the estimated "minimum adequate level" of $2.7 trillion [4] Group 3 - Lorie Logan emphasized the need for reform in communication mechanisms within the Fed, proposing changes to the presentation of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) to enhance policy transparency [5] - Analysts predict that the Fed will face three major challenges in the coming months: the debate over the magnitude of rate cuts due to differing views on neutral rates, precision in liquidity management during the balance sheet reduction phase, and maintaining policy continuity amid leadership transitions [6] Group 4 - Goldman Sachs' chief economist expects the Fed may implement an unconventional 50 basis point cut in September if the labor market deteriorates faster than anticipated [7] - UBS Wealth Management's investment director highlighted two critical moments for investors to watch: the September FOMC meeting's guidance on rate cuts and market reactions when reserve levels exceed $3 trillion in the fourth quarter [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy's neutral interest rate may not differ significantly from pre-pandemic levels, as structural factors that suppressed rates have not disappeared [2][3]. Group 1: Neutral Interest Rate Insights - Williams stated that the global trends in population and productivity growth that previously lowered the neutral rate (r*) have not reversed [3]. - The estimated neutral interest rate for early 2025 shows no significant rebound, indicating that the era of low r* is far from over [3]. - The Federal Reserve's median estimate for the neutral rate is currently at 3%, higher than the pre-pandemic level of 2.5%, with a range between 2.5% and nearly 4% [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Rate Decisions - Market consensus indicates an over 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with upcoming data likely to influence the trajectory of future rate cuts [4]. - Analysts speculate that the median dot plot for 2025 may suggest only two rate cuts for the year, but changes in risk dynamics could lead to a downward adjustment in the median point, indicating a total cut of 75 basis points by year-end [4]. - Williams previously indicated that a moderate restrictive monetary policy stance is appropriate due to inflation threats from tariffs [4].