Group 1 - The conference on November 28, 2025, gathered experts and analysts to explore investment strategies through economic cycles [1] - Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist for China, Xing Ziqiang, highlighted China's significant achievements in technological innovation and its critical role in the new technological revolution [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for high-quality and sustainable growth driven by technological innovation and domestic demand [3] Group 2 - Xing emphasized that technological innovation is the core engine of economic development, showcasing China's breakthroughs in sectors like semiconductors, green energy, artificial intelligence, and 6G during the "13th" and "14th Five-Year Plans" [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" also focuses on improving people's livelihoods and boosting consumption, with a target to increase the share of household consumption in GDP [4] - The plan includes a proposal to provide monthly subsidies of approximately 1,000 RMB to farmers and migrant workers, aiming to enhance consumption confidence and push household consumption beyond 10 trillion USD by 2030 [4] Group 3 - Xing proposed a "source and save" approach for fiscal sustainability, suggesting the activation of state-owned assets and optimizing fiscal expenditure to better allocate resources towards social welfare [4] - The long-term positive fundamentals of the Chinese economy remain unchanged, with technological self-reliance and domestic demand expansion expected to create new growth momentum [4] - Continuous policy consensus and deepening reforms will provide significant opportunities for global investors in the Chinese financial market [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **gold market** and the **monetary policy** of the **Federal Reserve** in the context of the U.S. economy and global financial conditions [1][21]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Expectations**: - The market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve fluctuated significantly, dropping from a 100% expectation in early October to 29.6% by November 19, before rising again to 80% [5]. - There is notable internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of rate cuts, with 5 out of 12 voting members supporting a pause, 4 favoring a cut, and 3 being neutral [5]. 2. **Impact of Employment Data**: - Mixed signals from U.S. employment data have created market uncertainty, with private sector data indicating deterioration and a rise in unemployment rates [6]. - The expectation for poor employment data in Q4 adds to market unpredictability [6]. 3. **Long-term Monetary Policy Outlook**: - The market anticipates that by the end of 2026, the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates to between 2.75% and 3%, indicating a sustained likelihood of loose monetary policy [8]. 4. **U.S. Fiscal Situation**: - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to be historically high, with expenditures exceeding revenues by 1.34 times, leading to increased pressure for rate cuts to alleviate fiscal burdens [13][14]. - The total U.S. national debt exceeds $38 trillion, constituting 125% of GDP, which raises concerns about fiscal sustainability and supports gold prices [13][14]. 5. **Global Central Bank Policies**: - Central banks worldwide are expected to maintain accommodative monetary policies to address high debt levels, which may enhance the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [21]. 6. **Gold Demand Dynamics**: - Gold demand remains robust, with total demand increasing by 44% year-over-year, driven primarily by investment demand from central banks and private investors [22]. - Tether, a major stablecoin issuer, has significantly increased its physical gold holdings, further supporting gold demand [24]. 7. **Geopolitical and Economic Risks**: - The potential for a U.S. government shutdown poses risks to market liquidity and could increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold [15]. - The upcoming 2026 midterm elections may influence U.S. domestic policies and external trade relations, impacting market conditions [18]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Inflation Data Uncertainty**: - The reliability of inflation data is compromised due to government shutdowns, complicating the assessment of the Federal Reserve's rate adjustment decisions [7]. 2. **Shadow Chairperson Influence**: - The concept of a "shadow chairperson" could impact market expectations and monetary policy direction, especially if the current chair's term ends before 2026 [12]. 3. **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: - Despite some countries reducing gold holdings, the overall trend among central banks remains one of increasing gold reserves, with 95% of surveyed banks indicating plans to continue purchasing gold [25][26]. 4. **China's Gold Accumulation Strategy**: - China has consistently increased its gold reserves over the past year, reflecting a strategic commitment to gold accumulation despite rising prices [27]. 5. **Silver Market Volatility**: - The silver market exhibits significant volatility, influenced by macroeconomic conditions, with historical patterns suggesting potential price adjustments following substantial increases [30]. This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the dynamics of the gold market and the implications of U.S. monetary policy.

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is signaling a potential shift from its long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy, with indications that interest rate hikes could begin as early as December, amidst a backdrop of a weakening yen and rising inflation pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The BOJ has adjusted its communication strategy to focus on the inflation risks posed by the weak yen, preparing the market for a possible interest rate hike in December [2]. - A recent survey indicates that just over half of economists expect the BOJ to raise rates at its next meeting on December 18-19, with projections suggesting rates could rise to 0.75% by March next year [2]. - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has surged to 1.821%, reflecting investor re-evaluation of Japan's monetary policy outlook [2]. Group 2: Government Stimulus and Economic Impact - The Japanese government has announced a massive stimulus package totaling 21.3 trillion yen, financed by issuing at least 11.5 trillion yen in new debt, marking the largest fiscal stimulus since the easing of pandemic restrictions [3]. - The government has abandoned its goal of achieving an annual fiscal surplus, raising concerns about the sustainability of Japan's fiscal policy, especially as government debt exceeds twice the GDP [3][4]. Group 3: Policy Dilemma - There exists a "policy deadlock" where the need for low interest rates to support fiscal stimulus conflicts with the increased debt burden that would result from rate hikes [4]. - The lack of normalization in monetary policy amidst high inflation could heighten the risk of inflation detachment, while concerns over fiscal sustainability may elevate risk premiums on long-term Japanese government bonds [5]. Group 4: Economic Growth and Market Sentiment - Japan's economy has already shown negative growth in Q3, a direct impact of U.S. tariffs, particularly affecting the automotive sector [5]. - The Japanese government has revised its economic growth forecast for FY2025 down from 1.2% to 0.7% [5]. - The volatility of the yen is influencing the broader Asian financial markets, with the Korean won showing heightened sensitivity to fluctuations in the yen [5]. Group 5: Potential for Currency Intervention - Japanese officials have reiterated their readiness to respond to excessive market volatility, echoing language used prior to significant interventions in the past [6]. - There is a risk of unexpected government intervention in the currency market, which could be considered a "black swan" event [5][6]. Group 6: Global Monetary Policy Dynamics - A successful rate hike in December could reshape asset pricing in Japan, marking a historic divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and Japan, as both countries may adopt opposing monetary stances for the first time in decades [7]. - This convergence of policies could redefine the role of the yen within the global monetary system [7].

Core Points - Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi emphasized the government's readiness to monitor exchange rate fluctuations and take necessary actions to ensure fiscal sustainability and defend the economic stimulus plan [1][4] - The market is closely watching whether the Japanese authorities will shift from verbal warnings to actual intervention, especially during the low liquidity period created by the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday [1][4] Group 1: Government Actions and Statements - The Japanese government is prepared to monitor the nature of exchange rate fluctuations, distinguishing between those driven by economic fundamentals and speculative behavior [1] - Takaichi defended the economic stimulus plan, stating it is not "reckless spending" and committed to reducing Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio [1] - The Prime Minister highlighted that ensuring Japan's fiscal sustainability is the most important priority [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Potential Interventions - The upcoming U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and subsequent low trading volumes create an ideal environment for potential currency intervention by Japanese authorities [4] - Historical data indicates that Japan tends to intervene during such low liquidity periods to achieve significant price impacts with less capital [4] - The key challenge for Japanese authorities is to effectively curb excessive depreciation of the yen without depleting foreign exchange reserves [4]

智通财经记者 | 刘婷 分析人士指出，日元资产大跌可能会对全球流动性产生潜在不利影响。由于长期低利率环境，日元成为 全球融资货币，投资者利用日本的低利率，借入日元投资于美债、美股等高收益资产，进行套息交易， 而日债收益率上行可能触发日元套利交易平仓。 徐嘉琦表示，日债收益率的持续上行，可能导致套息交易减少，促使日本投资者资本回流，平仓海外头 寸并减少美元资产敞口，从而放大美股、美债等资产的下行风险，加剧全球金融市场波动。 "同时，日债暴跌打破了投资者对日本国债安全资产的预期，考虑到美国等其他发达经济体也面临债务 和通胀压力，日本债市波动和政府债务风险的相互强化可能会传染至其他发达经济体，推升这些国家长 期国债的期限溢价，进而催化全球长期国债收益率上行风险。"她表示。 易峘指出，此次补充预算规模21.3万亿日元，超过市场之前预期的17万亿-20万亿日元，补充预算占 2025财年日本GDP的2.8%，比2024财年提高0.4个百分点。往前看，对财政可持续性的担忧或推升日本 长端国债的风险溢价，导致长端国债的流动性进一步恶化。 "高市早苗刚上台时，市场对她还是有一个比较正向的预期的，对日本市场也是偏乐观，但是近期发 ...

日本股债又跳了！ 美股的爆发并没有令日本股市出现太大的修复。今天（11月25日），日经225指数一度反弹超1%，但随 即转向跳水。而日本十年期国债收益率再度飙升至1.8%上方。 更值得关注的是，日本资本巨头软银迎来了大暴跌。该股周二暴跌至两个半月低点，在前一个交易日下 跌10.9%之后，该股周二跌幅一度高达11%。受此影响，韩国股指亦出现显著回落。 那么，究竟发生了什么？影响又有多大？ 日本市场再度生变 日经225指数早盘高开高走，一度飙升超1%。但日本时间午后开始跳水，一度翻绿，后略有回稳，截至 收盘涨0.07%，报48659.52点。 这其中，软银的暴跌可能带来了巨大拖累。继上一个交易日大跌之后，该股今天一度暴跌达11%，截至 收盘大跌近10%。原因是人们担心Alphabet最新的双子座人工智能模型可能会加剧对软银关键投资 OpenAI的竞争。 三菱UFJ eSmart证券公司的高桥努·山田表示，谷歌的Gemini 3获得好评后，OpenAI的竞争环境将变得更 加激烈，这种担忧对股票造成了冲击。 值得关注的是，最近困扰全球市场的日本国债市场今天再度杀跌。日本10年期国债收益率再度飙至 1.8%上方。30年 ...

日本股债又跳了！ 美股的爆发并没有令日本股市出现太大的修复。今天（11月25日），日经225指数一度反弹超1%，但随即转向跳水。而日本十年期国债收益率再度飙升至1.8%上 方。 更值得关注的是，日本资本巨头软银迎来了大暴跌。该股周二暴跌至两个半月低点，在前一个交易日下跌10.9%之后，该股周二跌幅一度高达11%。受此影响，韩 国股指亦出现显著回落。 日经225指数早盘高开高走，一度飙升超1%。但日本时间午后开始跳水，一度翻绿，后略有回稳，截至收盘 涨0.07%，报48659.52点 。 这其中，软银的暴跌可能带来了巨大拖累。继上一个交易日大跌之后，该股今天一度暴跌达11%，截至收盘大跌近10%。原因是人们担心Alphabet最新的双子座人 工智能模型可能会加剧对软银关键投资OpenAI的竞争。 三菱UFJ eSmart证券公司的高桥努·山田表示，谷歌的Gemini 3获得好评后，OpenAI的竞争环境将变得更加激烈，这种担忧对股票造成了冲击。 值得关注的是，最近困扰全球市场的日本国债市场今天再度杀跌。日本10年期国债收益率再度飙至1.8%上方。30年期日本国债收益率上涨0.5个基点，至3.325%。 受日本股 ...

在业内人士看来，这场风暴的导火索是市场掀起的"高市交易"——投资者因预期日本内阁将推出远超预 期的财政支出计划，出于对财政可持续性的深度忧虑而大举抛售国债。 全景扫描——收益率曲线全面上移股债汇遭遇"三杀" 日本金融市场近期呈现出罕见的全线下跌态势。11月21日，日本内阁批准了高达21.3万亿日元（1354亿 美元）的经济刺激计划，这一规模庞大的支出方案立即引发了市场对日本财政状况持续恶化的担忧。 整体来看，当前收益率曲线呈现出明显的陡峭化上移，即短期国债收益率上行幅度相对可控，而超长期 国债遭遇持续抛售压力。 法国兴业银行全球策略师Albert Edwards将日本长期债券收益率的攀升评价为"极少被投资者重视的重大 警示信号"。他指出，这一变化预示着市场对日本财政可持续性的信心正在动摇。 新华财经北京11月25日电（王菁）近期，日本债券市场掀起一场"抛售风暴"，各期限债券收益率全线攀 升，接连突破历史高点。其中，10年期日本国债收益率最高触及1.842%，创下2008年全球金融危机以 来的最高水平。超长端收益率涨幅更为惊人，30年期日债收益率一度升至历史峰值。 复旦发展研究院金融研究中心主任孙立坚分析认为， ...

一番耸动言论激起外交风波，一纸"撒钱"方案引爆市场动荡。 高市早苗上任仅月余，就让日本站上风口浪尖。 11月中旬以来，日本国债遭遇大规模抛售，10年期国债收益率不断攀升，创下自2008年全球金融危机以 来的最高水平。 日元汇率则持续走低，一度跌至1美元兑157日元，创下10个月以来新低。 11月11日，日本东京。 债汇"双杀"，表面看是金融市场震荡，实则是政治、财政与外交多重压力交织下的集中反应。 股市也表现不佳，日经225指数一周累计下跌3.48%，失守49000点。 11月21日，高市早苗政府推出规模超21万亿日元的经济刺激计划，若计入地方政府与民间企业配套投 资，总规模预计高达42.8万亿日元，远高于去年同期水平。 尽管包含部分减税与能源补贴等惠民措施，但市场更关注其对日本财政可持续性的长期冲击。 财政支出规模大幅超出市场预期，也迅速点燃了外界对日本债务压力与通胀风险的担忧。 尽管高市早苗在记者会上强调，该计划充分考虑了财政可持续性，但市场并没有买单。有东京交易员表 示，越来越多观点认为，日本宏观经济政策路径正变得更加混乱。 《金融时报》报道指出，投资者担忧这份追加预算案远超预期，资金来源势必依赖大量长 ...

（原标题：2026年财政法案：阿尔及利亚国民议会通过文本） 审议期间，委员会逐项听取修正案提出者的意见，讨论重点包括：减轻部分税费负担、进行有针对 性的财政调整、修改敏感预算条款，以及提升国家经济吸引力的措施。经过多轮讨论，委员会采纳了新 修正案并对部分条款进行修改，使法案更契合国家的经济和社会发展目标。文本在保持财政可持续性的 同时，更好地支持国家正在实施的结构性改革，并更加贴合公众期待，包括税制现代化、促进生产型投 资以及公共支出的合理化。 在国民议会通过后，法案将提交给国民院（Conseil de la Nation，阿国民院）进行二次审议，该程 序完成后，《2026年财政法案》将于明年初正式生效。 新闻网站Algérie 360，11月18日报道，阿尔及利亚国民议会(APN) 于2025年11月18日在议长布加利 主持的全体会议上正式通过《2026年财政法案》草案。这一通过标志着阿尔及利亚在当前经济改革加 速、财政框架需不断调整的背景下迈出的重要立法步骤。 在表决前，财政与预算委员会提交了补充报告，显示议员们围绕文本提出了12项修正建议，内容涉 及税收政策、促进增长机制以及改进公共管理绩效等领域。相关 ...