投资要点： | [Table_Authors] | 王一凡(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38031722 | | | wangyifan4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524120001 | | | 唐元懋(分析师) | | | 0755-23976753 | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.22 欧洲抛售美债对美债有何影响 本报告导读： 美日债市联动暴跌，政治摩擦与财政叙事引爆期限溢价跳升，超长久期资产遭集中 抛售，风险外溢全球。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 财政金融促内需新政对债市有何影响 2026.01.21 躁动行情换挡，聚焦业绩成色 2026.01.20 基于银行微观数据，26 年存款重定价节奏怎么 看？ 2025.12.29 震荡巩固，蓄力反弹 2025.12.22 把握跨年行情布局时机 2025.12.15 证 券 研 究 报 告 事 件 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 债 券 研 究 [Tabl ...

Core Viewpoint - The rules of the gold market have changed, with private sector investors entering the market to hedge against global policy risks, leading to a significant upward revision of gold price targets by Goldman Sachs from $4,900 to $5,400 per ounce for the year [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The competition for physical gold is intensifying as central banks and private capital vie for limited supplies, accelerating the upward trend in gold prices [2] - In 2023 and 2024, gold prices are expected to rise by 15% and 26% respectively, primarily driven by panic buying from central banks following the freezing of Russian reserves [2] - By 2025, gold prices are projected to surge by 67%, as central banks are no longer the sole major buyers, leading to increased competition with private investors [2] Group 2: Investment Behavior - Analysts note a significant increase in physical gold purchases by high-net-worth families and a surge in bullish options buying, contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [4] - The gap between actual gold prices and Goldman Sachs' traditional model predictions has widened since 2025, indicating a shift in buying behavior [4] - The demand for new hedging tools against global macro policy risks has surged, reflecting a change in investor sentiment [4] Group 3: Price Projections - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 17% increase in gold prices by the end of 2026, with emerging market central banks' diversification contributing 14 percentage points to this growth [5] - The average monthly gold purchases by central banks are expected to remain high at 60 tons, significantly above the pre-2022 average of 17 tons [5] - A return of funds to Western ETFs, driven by anticipated Fed rate cuts, is expected to contribute an additional 3 percentage points to gold price increases [5] Group 4: Signals for Reversal - Despite the upward price target revision, the risk distribution for gold prices remains skewed towards the upside, with potential for increased private sector allocation [7] - Two key signals for a potential reversal in gold prices include a decline in central bank gold purchases to pre-2022 levels and a shift in Fed policy from rate cuts to rate hikes [7] - The lack of elasticity in gold supply means that high prices alone cannot resolve supply issues, and demand collapse would be necessary for a price reversal [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent turmoil in the Japanese bond market, characterized by a significant sell-off, has raised concerns about fiscal sustainability and its potential ripple effects on global bond markets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Japanese Bond Market Dynamics - Major Japanese financial institutions, including Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings, have signaled intentions to double their Japanese government bond holdings, providing some confidence to the market [1]. - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds fell to 2.92% from a previous high of 2.33%, while the 20-year and 30-year yields remained elevated at 3.251% and 3.73%, respectively [1]. - The sell-off began on January 19, coinciding with political sensitivities surrounding early elections, leading to heightened investor concerns about Japan's economic outlook [1][2]. Group 2: Causes of the Sell-off - The sell-off was triggered by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's announcement of a large-scale tax cut and spending plan, raising fears of increased fiscal deficits and the need for more bond issuance [5][6]. - The recent poor auction results for 20-year bonds, with a bid-to-cover ratio of only 3.19, have exacerbated market fears, indicating a potential cycle of selling and increasing anxiety [6]. - Concerns about Japan's fiscal discipline have intensified, with the government debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 240%, and the proposed budget for FY2026 significantly exceeding that of FY2025 [5][6]. Group 3: Global Impact - The turmoil in the Japanese bond market has led to rising yields in the U.S., Australia, Germany, and New Zealand, indicating a spillover effect on global bond markets [2][14]. - Investors are increasingly wary of fiscal sustainability, which could lead to a reallocation of funds back to Japan from foreign bonds, raising global borrowing costs [15][16]. - The situation reflects a broader trend of rising interest rates and debt levels across developed economies, with Japan's unique position as a major creditor nation amplifying the potential for systemic risk [14][16].

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Sanna Takashi faces a critical dilemma between appealing to voters for the upcoming election on February 8 and tightening fiscal policy to stabilize the increasingly volatile bond market. This situation not only impacts Japan's economic outlook but could also trigger a ripple effect in global financial markets [1]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Election Strategy - To gain voter support, Takashi has promised to suspend the food consumption tax for two years, which is expected to cost approximately 5 trillion yen (about 32 billion USD). This move has raised concerns about fiscal discipline and has not fully reassured voters, instead angering bond investors [1][5]. - Analysts suggest that if Takashi wins decisively in the election, trust in her fiscal discipline may further erode, potentially leading to a sell-off in Japan's debt market, which is the third largest globally [5][8]. - The recent commitment to tax cuts is seen as a significant policy reversal, as Takashi previously opposed such measures. This shift is largely viewed as a political strategy in response to opposition party proposals [10]. Group 2: Bond Market Reactions - The Japanese 40-year government bond yield has surpassed the psychological threshold of 4%, marking a historic re-evaluation of Japan's bond market. The benchmark 10-year bond yield has also recently exceeded 2%, reaching its highest level in over 25 years [6][9]. - The surge in bond yields has raised alarms among global investors, with some large Japanese investors beginning to repatriate funds from overseas, negatively impacting long-term bond performance in other regions [6][8]. - The market's reaction indicates a growing concern over Japan's fiscal sustainability, particularly given its debt level of 250% of GDP under aggressive fiscal policies [8]. Group 3: Currency and Economic Implications - The ongoing rise in long-term yields is starting to have adverse effects on the economy and financial markets, potentially reversing previous trading strategies that favored a weak yen and rising stock markets [9]. - The yen's significant depreciation has reached a level that typically prompts government intervention, placing policymakers in a difficult position between intervening in the currency market or raising interest rates to support the yen, which could further increase yields [9][10]. - There is skepticism about whether raising interest rates to defend the currency is feasible, as it would directly raise financing costs and could undermine the economic growth that fiscal expansion aims to achieve [9].

科技投资，特别是与人工智能相关的投资，正在成为全球经济增长的重要驱动力。报告指出，全球科技 行业投资增速迅猛，在北美和亚洲地区体现尤为明显。这种增长不仅体现在高科技公司自身的投资上， 还体现为其他行业对人工智能技术的采用和投资上。另外，科技投资的快速增长还带动了半导体和其他 技术设备的出口，这一点在亚洲经济体中表现得尤为突出。除了投资本身对经济增长带来贡献之外，有 关技术的应用可以提高生产效率、降低成本，并创造新的产品和服务。科技投资还可以促进创新，推动 经济增长方式转变，创造新的增长。科技产品的出口还可以为其他国家提供先进的科技产品和服务，促 进全球包容性增长。 1月19日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）发布《世界经济展望报告》（以下简称"报告"）更新内容，指出 全球经济在分化力量中保持平稳，预计全球经济将在2026年增长3.3%，在2027年增长3.2%，相较于 2025年10月的预测值略有上调。其中，报告将2025年中国经济增长率上调0.2个百分点至5%，将2026年 中国经济增长率上调0.3个百分点。 报告指出，此次上调中国2025年经济增速，反映了中国政府出台提振措施以及政策性银行为投资提供额 外贷款对 ...

新华财经北京1月21日电 1月20日，全球债市遭遇集体"抛售潮"，美债和日债领跌，日债更是历史性地升破了4%关口，三十余年来，该国所有期限的主权 债券首次迈入"4时代"。 无独有偶，日债也在同一天遭遇历史性抛售，日本30年期国债收益率上升超30个基点至3.915%；日本40年期国债收益率更是触及4%的心理关口，上升29 个基点至4.231%，续创历史新高，这也是该国主权债券三十余年来首度迈入"4时代"。 据彭博社报道，周二午间刚举行的日本20年期国债拍卖结果显示需求疲软，投标覆盖率仅为3.19，低于前次拍卖的4.1，也不及过去12个月3.34的平均水 平。 引发市场巨震的核心原因是日本首相高市早苗周一的重磅声明。日本首相高市早苗周一在记者会上正式确认将于1月23日解散众议院，并于2月8日提前大 选。高市早苗还称，必须大胆投资风险管理，摆脱过度紧缩的束缚。 与此同时，澳大利亚、新西兰债券同步下跌，德国国债期货也出现下滑。野村澳大利亚有限公司驻悉尼的高级利率策略师安德鲁·蒂斯赫斯特表示："全球 主权债收益率曲线的长期端显得相当脆弱。" 全球债券在年初即面临压力。投资者要求更高的收益率，以补偿顽固的通胀和不断上升的 ...

高市早苗一直是扩张性财政政策的支持者。据日本财务省公布的文件，高市早苗内阁提出的2026财年预 算规模达122.3万亿日元，远超2025财年的115.2万亿日元。其中，仅国债费就高达31.3万亿日元。然 而，日本政府债务余额占国内生产总值比重已达240%。高市内阁推行扩张性财政政策、大肆发债，令 投资者对日本财政状况恶化的忧虑不断加深。"日本债券市场目前处于无人买入但抛售不止的状态。"彭 博社援引基金行业人士的话报道称。 多家日本媒体报道称，削减消费税已经成为此次选举的一个焦点，因为执政党和反对党都试图通过减轻 不断上升的生活成本负担措施来赢得选民。不过，日本央行19日发布的2025年12月生活意识问卷调查结 果显示，认为一年后的物价较现在"将上涨"的受访者占比为86.0%，仍然处于高位。 有分析认为，日本国债收益率上行不仅源于财政政策的不确定性，还叠加了通胀与货币政策预期的影 响。《日经亚洲评论》报道提到，日本核心通胀率在2025年11月仍维持在3.0%，经通胀调整后的实际 工资已连续11个月处于负增长区间。在生活成本压力持续存在的背景下，主要政党在选举前竞相讨论减 税与扩大财政支出，加剧了市场对财政可持续 ...

Market Overview - On January 20, the US market experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones index falling by 1.36%, the S&P 500 by 1.51%, and the Nasdaq Composite by 1.78% [1] - Major tech stocks also saw declines, with Nvidia and Tesla dropping over 3%, while Google A, Amazon, and Meta fell over 2%, and Apple and Microsoft decreased by over 1% [1] Bond Market - The yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond rose by more than 8 basis points to 4.916%, while the 10-year Treasury yield reached a high of 4.309%, marking the highest levels since early September of the previous year [3] - Rising yields indicate a decline in bond prices, reflecting investor sentiment [3] Currency and Commodities - The US dollar index reported a decline of 0.55%, standing at 98.5055 [5] - Bitcoin fell below $90,000, decreasing by 2.84%, while spot gold reached a new historical high, surpassing $4,750, with a 1.57% increase to $4,742.682 per ounce [9] - Spot silver rose by 0.58%, with a year-to-date increase of over 30% [9] European Market Impact - Major European stock indices also experienced declines, with the UK FTSE 100, France's CAC40, Germany's DAX, and Italy's MIB all dropping over 1% [7] Geopolitical Factors - Analysts noted that recent threats from the US to impose tariffs on several European countries have created significant uncertainty, prompting investors to sell off dollar assets in favor of safe-haven assets [11] - The EU is considering imposing tariffs on $93 billion worth of US goods in response, which could further strain US-EU relations [11] - High-profile investors, including Goldman Sachs and Ray Dalio, expressed concerns that US policies could lead to a "capital war," diminishing confidence in US assets and increasing interest in gold as a hedge [11] Central Bank Actions - The Polish central bank approved a plan to purchase up to 150 tons of gold, aiming to increase its reserves to 700 tons, positioning Poland among the top 10 countries globally in gold reserves [12] - The Danish pension fund "AkademikerPension" plans to sell all its US Treasury holdings due to concerns over credit risk associated with US policies [12][13] Global Bond Market Trends - The US Treasury's "safe-haven" status is being questioned amid rising fiscal deficits and geopolitical tensions, leading to concerns about the reliability of the largest bond market during risk-off sentiment [14] - Japan's bond market also faced significant sell-offs, with the 30-year bond yield rising over 30 basis points to 3.915%, marking a historic high [14][17] Conclusion - The current market environment is characterized by rising yields, declining stock prices, and increased interest in gold and other safe-haven assets, driven by geopolitical tensions and concerns over fiscal sustainability [18]

片山的表态，正值日本长期国债遭遇猛烈抛售之后。日本40年期国债收益率一度升至数十年来新高，并 对全球其他市场产生外溢影响。市场担忧主要源于日本首相高市早苗上周宣布将于2月8日提前举行大 选，试图巩固其领导的自由民主党执政联盟的微弱多数优势。 智通财经APP获悉，周二，日本国债市场经历剧烈波动之际，日本财务大臣片山皋月出面安抚市场情 绪。她在瑞士达沃斯出席世界经济论坛期间接受采访时呼吁投资者"保持冷静"，强调日本当前的财政政 策是"负责任且可持续的"，并非市场所担忧的扩张性政策。 片山表示，自去年10月以来，日本财政立场始终保持审慎，相关数据已清楚反映这一点。她指出，日本 对债务发行的依赖程度处于30年来最低水平，税收收入持续增长，且在七国集团(G7)中，日本的财政赤 字规模最小，这些都印证了政府财政政策的稳健性。 高市承诺，若赢得新的执政授权，将暂停食品和饮料销售税两年。根据日本财务省测算，该措施每年将 造成约5万亿日元(约合316亿美元)的财政缺口。尽管这一规模明显小于2022年导致英国前首相特拉斯政 府下台的财政刺激计划，市场仍担心，日本庞大的债务负担可能因此进一步加重。在高市未能明确说明 如何在不增加赤 ...

日本政府正推动经济增长模式转型，从依赖债务融资转向投资驱动型发展，并在人工智能和芯片领域投入超过3300亿美元。 1月20日，日本财务大臣片山皋月在达沃斯世界经济论坛上表示，政府对债务的依存度财务正在下降，国内对结构性变革的乐观情绪与日俱增，经 济正向"重点增长的方向"转变。她强调应大幅转向以投资拉动经济，同时努力保持财政可持续性。 针对日本近期国债收益率上行，她表示日本将在扩大财政支出的同时，坚持维护财政可持续性，并已向金融界和投资者明确传达了政府致力于实 现公共财政长期稳健目标的决心。 "将结束过度紧缩的财政政策" 引发国债抛售潮 早前，高市早苗宣布终结紧缩财政政策、转向宽松财政的明确信号，，10年期国债收益率上行8个基点，至2.350%，刷新1999年以来高位；日本 30年期国债收益率上升26.5个基点至3.875%。 据报道，日本首相高市早苗19日在记者会上表示，将于1月23日解散众议院，并寻求选民授权以继续执政，于2月8日举行众议院选举，本届日本国 会众议院议员的任期原定于2028年10月届满。 与此同时，她表示日本计划投入超过3300亿美元，重点用于人工智能与芯片领域。此番言论后，日元短线走强，日 ...