Workflow
货币贬值
icon
Search documents
巴西雷亚尔在即期交易中兑美元再次贬值1%。
news flash· 2025-04-30 17:19
Group 1 - The Brazilian real depreciated by 1% against the US dollar in spot trading [1]
鹤九皋:历史上,每次黄金价格大涨之后,会发生什么?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 02:31
Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in gold prices in 2023, from 620 CNY per gram to a peak of 836 CNY per gram, has sparked a nationwide investment trend in gold, reminiscent of the "golden aunt" phenomenon in 2013, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [2] Historical Context of Gold Price Surges First Phase (1970-1980) - Gold prices surged from 35 USD to 850 USD, marking a 2300% increase following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [4] - This phase led to global central banks adjusting their foreign exchange reserves, increasing gold purchases and challenging the dollar's dominance [5] - Gold production entered an expansion cycle, with countries like South Africa and Russia ramping up mining activities [5] - The oil crisis and high inflation positioned gold as a key asset against currency devaluation [5] - The Federal Reserve was compelled to adopt aggressive interest rate hikes, reaching 20%, to curb inflation, which ultimately ended the gold bull market but initiated the development of modern financial derivatives like gold futures [5] Second Phase (2008-2011) - Following the 2008 financial crisis, gold experienced a second bull market with a 166% increase [7] - The demand for gold as a safe haven led to the democratization of investment, exemplified by the rise of gold ETFs and regular central bank gold purchases [7] - The consumer market saw structural changes, with high gold prices driving a shift towards lightweight jewelry and innovations in gold leasing and collateral financing [7] Third Phase (2018-Present) - The current bull market, driven by geopolitical tensions and policy conflicts, has seen gold prices rise over 100% from 2018 to 2025 [9] - Increased market volatility and speculative trading in futures markets have been observed, with COMEX gold futures premiums reaching 60 USD per ounce and physical inventory surging by 18.6 million ounces in a month [9] - Competition from alternative assets has become more pronounced, with significant growth in platinum orders and a 30% increase in sales of K-gold and silver jewelry in China [9] - Fluctuations in monetary policy have led to a shift in the correlation between gold and U.S. equities, reflecting gold's dual role as a safe haven and a risk asset [9]
黄金——通往4000美元之路
华尔街见闻· 2025-04-24 10:30
由于关税引发的衰退和滞胀风险,摩根大通认为,黄金的结构性牛市将继续增强。 摩根大通Gregory C. Shearer团队在22日的研报中预测, 黄金价格将于2025年第四季度达到均价3675美元/盎司,并在2026年第二季度突破4000美元/盎司关 口。 | Figure 1: JPM gold & silver price forecasts | | --- | | | | 4Q2024A | A WE SCHERESS: WARRENDER BREIN SECTION SECTION SEE WINNER 2024A | 1Q2025A | 202025 | 3Q2025 | 4Q2025 | 2025 | 1Q2026 | 2Q2026 | 3Q2026 | 4Q2026 | 2026 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | New | 2,664 | 2,389 | 2,872 | 3.400 | 3,515 | 3 675 | 3,365 | 3,840 ...
特朗普暗示日本操纵汇率,日元买盘激增创新高
日经中文网· 2025-03-11 03:00
截至3月4日,投机资金的日元兑美元净买入量达到13.3651万手,比上周增加约4成,创出历史最高 纪录。市场上特朗普牵制日元贬值的看法加强,投机资金增加了押注日元升值的交易…… 美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的数据显示,截至3月4日,对冲基金等非商业部门(投机资金)的日元兑 美元净买入量达到13.3651万手(约1.67万亿日元),比上周增加约4成,创出历史最高纪录。受美国总 统特朗普牵制日元贬值的言论和美国经济不稳定的影响,日元买入和美元卖出的趋势有所加强。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 受投机资金买入日元的影响,现货市场的日元兑美元升值正在加强。3月7日,日元一度升值至1美元兑 146日元左右,创出了自2024年10月上旬以来、时隔约4个月的最高水平。在3月10日的东京市场,也一 度升值至147日元左右。 另一方面,也有观点认为日元升值不会长期持续。持有日元多头头寸会产生美日利差导致的成本。因 此,如果日元升值变得难以预测,平掉日元多头持仓的趋势就容易加强。索尼金融集团的高级分析师森 本淳太郎表示,"短期内,日元有可能会升值到1美元兑145日元左右,但或许不会转变为长期的日元 ...