Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector is experiencing a significant recovery, driven by improved market conditions and regulatory support, making it an attractive investment opportunity. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 8, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high of 3499.89 points, marking the highest closing level since January 24, 2022 [1] - The brokerage sector, characterized as a "high beta asset," is closely linked to capital market performance, with all five major business areas showing improvement since the beginning of 2025 [1] Group 2: Business Segments - **Brokerage Business**: Increased market activity due to the entry of long-term funds, with new account openings rising over 50% year-on-year [1] - **Investment Banking**: The introduction of the "1+6" policy by the CSRC on June 18 is expected to benefit brokerage investment banking and private equity direct investment businesses [2] - **Proprietary Investment**: Benefiting from the upward trend in the A-share market since 2025 [2] - **Asset Management**: Recovery in the asset management industry and positive market expectations are driving growth [3] - **Credit Business**: Continuous recovery in financing balances is supporting this segment [4] Group 3: Performance Expectations - The brokerage sector's revenue and net profit saw strong year-on-year growth in Q1, with revenues increasing by 20.93% and net profits rising by 79.56%. Key drivers include proprietary investment (up 45% YoY) and brokerage business (up 49% YoY) [5] Group 4: Industry Forecast - The 2025 earnings forecast for the securities industry indicates a conservative estimate of daily average trading volume reaching 1.1 trillion yuan and net profit of approximately 1685.69 million yuan [6] - The forecast also includes optimistic scenarios with net profits potentially reaching 2262.10 million yuan [6] Group 5: Market Dynamics - The current market environment emphasizes both stabilizing the market and encouraging new investments, with ongoing measures expected to attract long-term capital and enhance returns on equity assets [7] - There is potential for excess savings to shift towards investments and consumption, further supporting market growth [8] Group 6: Investment Tools - The brokerage ETF (159842) is highlighted as a simple and efficient investment tool, tracking the CSI All Share Securities Companies Index and featuring the lowest management and custody fees in its category [9]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-07-09 股市情绪有所回升，债市维持震荡思维 股指期货：沪指逼近3500点关⼝ 股指期权：波动回落概率偏强 国债期货：维持震荡 股指期货方面，昨日权益市场震荡上攻，沪指接近3500点重要关口， 其中非金属材料、电信、电子领涨，昨日相对强势的银行、公用事业排名 居后，市场轮动速度依然偏快。整体上，情绪较此前有所回升：一，市场 量能再度放大至1.5万亿附近；二，期货大幅增仓且贴水收敛；三，涨停 家数维持在70家的水平，并未出现集中涨停潮，但指数中枢抬升，显示有 大量资金以买入指数的方式介入股票市场，这隐含增量资金入市的信号。 整体上，目前需要提防踏空风险，若行情持续，关注逢低加仓IM多单可 能。 股指期权方面，昨日标的再度冲高。受到标的升波上涨带动，昨日期 权市场流动性快速回暖，成交金额提升越95%，创业板ETF期权成交金额也 在昨日超过300ETF期权，表征市场交易情绪有所修复。从波动率水平来 看，多数合约小幅升波。从日内分时来看，隐含波动率基本与升波上涨行 情同步拉涨，随后上涨持续至尾盘，而临近尾盘50ETF期权波动 ...

中银证券认为，上半年A股在估值正贡献支撑下震荡收涨，盈利端呈现一定程度的负贡献。从风格因子 的表现来看，小市值、低估值占优，高盈利组合仅在一季度有所表现。当前市场对于盈利因子计价相对 较弱，7—8月中报业绩窗口期，盈利因子有望迎来阶段性修复。估值端，基本面及宏观政策中长期预期 的修复使得市场下行风险较低，充裕的流动性环境下，预计下半年A股市场有望呈现震荡上行趋势。 财信证券认为，近期大盘维持了反弹走势，沪指盘中创下年内新高。不过市场成交额连续缩量，导致近 期热点题材板块的延续性仍有待改善。短期操作上，建议把握好热点题材板块间的轮动节奏。中长期 看，在经济基本面、增量政策、流动性尚未出现明显拐点时，市场趋势性行情或需等待。但在中央汇金 类"平准基金"功能持续发挥下，市场向下空间也相对有限。预计第三季度A股指数仍将在924行情以来 的宽幅震荡区间内，市场风格或将继续轮动。 中原证券认为，周四早盘股指高开后震荡回落，盘中沪指在3447点附近获得支撑，午后股指震荡回升， 盘中消费电子、电子元件、电池以及通信设备等行业表现较好；船舶制造、采掘、游戏以及工程机械等 行业表现较弱。长期资金入市步伐加快，ETF规模稳步增长， ...

截至2025年7月3日 14:02，A500ETF易方达(159361)上涨0.71%，盘中换手4.93%，成交6.76亿元。 A500ETF易方达(159361)紧密跟踪中证A500指数，中证A500指数从各行业选取市值较大、流动性较好 的500只证券作为指数样本，以反映各行业最具代表性上市公司证券的整体表现。 A500ETF易方达(159361)的管理费率为0.15%，托管费率为0.05%，均为行业最低水平，能为投资者节省 投资成本。 联接A：022459 联接C：022460 联接Y：022930 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 A500ETF易方达(159361)具备跟踪优质指数、费用低、交易优势大、方便场外参与以及投资分散化、跟 踪市场表现、透明度高和适合长期定投等特点和优势，备受市场关注。 中原证券认为，长期资金入市步伐加快，ETF规模稳步增长，保险资金持续流入，形成显著的托底力 量。美联储6月议息会议维持利率不变，但降息路径仍存不确定性，若释放明确降息信号将显著提振全 球风险偏好。预计短期A股市场以稳步震荡上行为主，仍需密切关注政策面、资金面以及外盘的变化 ...

"资本市场在经济全局中的战略地位明显提升。"中国银河证券首席经济学家、研究院院长章俊认为，股 市是经济的"晴雨表"，市场稳定对于改善市场预期、提振投资者信心以及促进消费和投资至关重要，尤 其是在经济结构转型的关键时期，资本市场有助于引导资金向科技创新、新质生产力领域聚集，推动产 业结构升级。 4月以来，美国所谓的"对等关税"冲击全球金融市场，A股市场亦受到影响。为维护市场稳定，我国多 部门、各类市场主体纷纷出手，中央汇金公司积极发挥类"平准基金"作用，全国社保基金理事会、国有 资本运营公司、央国企集团、保险机构、上市公司"真金白银"实施增持回购，打出了一系列稳市"组合 拳"，A股市场表现出较强的稳定性，彰显出我国政策工具储备充足、资本市场稳市机制持续优化、经 济基本面稳中向好的信心与底气。 博时基金首席权益策略分析师陈显顺认为，当前海外市场局势仍不明朗，关税冲击还有可能带来全球金 融市场动荡，持续稳定国内资本市场仍有必要。中央政治局会议进一步稳定了市场预期，提振了投资者 信心，维稳力量将持续发挥作用。 专家指出，"活跃资本市场"，意味着资本市场要在稳定的基础上更趋活跃，这与"稳中求进"的工作总基 调一脉相承， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the announcement of a comprehensive financial policy package by the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission to stabilize the market and expectations [1] - The implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy includes a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, aimed at enhancing liquidity and credit supply in specific sectors [1][2] - The reduction in the reserve requirement ratio for auto finance and financial leasing companies from 5% to 0% is expected to lower their funding costs and improve credit supply capabilities [2] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has introduced measures to lower policy interest rates, including a 0.1 percentage point reduction in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which is expected to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2] - The central bank's support for capital markets includes optimizing two monetary policy tools with a total quota of 800 billion yuan, allowing for more flexible use of funds [3] - The Central Huijin Investment Company is emphasized as a key player in maintaining capital market stability, with the central bank providing sufficient support for its operations [3] Group 3 - The expansion of pilot programs for insurance funds to invest long-term is set to inject an additional 60 billion yuan into the market, alongside adjustments to solvency regulations to encourage more stock investments [4] - The focus on increasing the scale and proportion of long-term funds entering the market is highlighted, with initiatives to promote high-quality development of public funds [4] - The roadmap for capital market reforms includes measures to enhance the stability and adaptability of the market, with a focus on supporting technological innovation and improving the investment environment for foreign entities [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of long-term capital investment in stabilizing the market and boosting investor confidence, particularly through the role of ETFs [1][2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange recently held a training session focused on the entry of equity funds from commercial bank wealth management companies into the market, guided by a policy document from six ministries [1] - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total scale of bank wealth management products is projected to reach 29.14 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.41% [1] Group 2 - Bank wealth management companies are committed to enhancing their equity investment capabilities and increasing their allocation to equity assets, aligning with the "long money long investment" policy [1][2] - The domestic ETF market is experiencing robust growth, with index-based investments becoming a significant trend due to their advantages in risk diversification, transparency, and ease of trading [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange plans to deepen its investment services and innovate financing mechanisms to attract long-term capital, supporting market stability and expectations [2]

Core Insights - China Pacific Insurance launched a private equity fund with a target size of 20 billion yuan, emphasizing long-term investment strategies [1][2] - China Chengtong's investment in three ETFs signals confidence in the long-term value of state-owned enterprises [1][2] - The approval of the first batch of new floating fee rate funds indicates a shift towards performance-based fee structures [3][4] Group 1: Long-term Capital Inflow - There is an increasing trend of long-term capital inflow into the capital market, with social security funds, enterprise annuities, and insurance funds showing significant investment activity [1][2] - The total net purchase of A-shares by long-term funds has exceeded 200 billion yuan this year, indicating a positive cycle of capital inflow and market stability [2][5] Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has introduced a floating management fee mechanism linked to fund performance, encouraging long-term investment behavior [3][4] - Recent regulatory changes allow private equity funds to shorten lock-up periods for shares, enhancing liquidity and investment efficiency [4][5] Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing implementation of policies aimed at promoting long-term capital participation is expected to optimize the investment environment for insurance and pension funds [5] - There is potential for further increases in the equity investment ratio of insurance funds, as regulatory limits remain significantly below current levels [5]

第三个时间点是12月，这个月市场走势通常是先涨后跌，中旬是关键分水岭。因为到了年底，公募和私 募机构都忙着排名，上旬就开始陆续出货以锁定排名。所以，若12月上旬市场上涨，及时减仓准没错， 否则很可能坐过山车，导致利润回吐。 第四个时间点是监管出手之时，其对市场影响巨大。一旦监管提出要打造慢牛行情、打击题材炒作、给 市场降温，游资就会迅速撤离。若投资者此时反应迟缓，大概率会亏损。 最后一个，也是最重要的时间点，是提及引导中长期资金入市之时。仔细观察会发现，每次这一说法出 现，A股就会下跌。要是投资者信以为真，那就可能成为入市接盘的中长期资金。仔细想想，如果短期 就能引入资金入市，又何必提及中长期呢？所以，别轻易在这个时候入场。 （原标题：和讯投顾郑邯：每年有5个关键时间点，最后一个最为坑人） 7月1日，和讯投顾郑邯表示，每年有5个时间点，股民账户资金变动较大，即便牛市也难幸免，尤其最 后一个时间点最为坑人。 第一个时间点是每年4月中下旬，跌停潮几乎成惯例，是股民的噩梦时段。此时是年报集中披露期，一 些上市公司之前描绘的美好蓝图和讲述的故事纷纷被戳穿。虽然从指数看，下跌幅度或许不算特别夸 张，但股民账户的盈亏情况 ...

Group 1: Securities Industry Insights - The securities industry underperformed the market in the first half of the year due to valuation increases and policy changes [1] - Ongoing market stabilization measures are expected to boost various business segments, including brokerage, margin financing, and equity derivatives [1] - The introduction of new public fund regulations marks a new era for high-quality development in public funds [1] - The deepening of capital market investment and financing reforms is leading to a recovery in investment banking business [1] - The reliance on investment performance, particularly in leverage and proprietary equity investments by brokerages, remains a key differentiator [1] - The "1+N" regulatory framework and mechanisms to encourage long-term capital inflow are enhancing the inherent stability of the capital market [1] Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - Recent copper prices have shown an upward trend, but there is market divergence regarding future price movements [2] - The upstream refined copper production remains tight due to limited CAPEX and significant reductions in TC/RC fees [2] - Support for copper prices is provided by China's "steady growth" policies and the "soft landing" of the U.S. economy, with current market prices deemed reasonable [2] - Further upward movement in copper prices may require additional macroeconomic policy support domestically and stabilization in overseas economies [2] - Inflation expectations, interest rate cut anticipations, and a slight decline in the U.S. dollar index may further support the current strong oscillation in copper prices [2] - Citic Securities maintains a forecast for copper prices to rise to $10,000–$11,000 per ton in the second half of the year, while cautioning against potential disruptions from July's "reciprocal tariffs" [2] Group 3: Smart Glasses Supply Chain - The release of Xiaomi's AI glasses, which serve as a portable AI interface with multiple functionalities, highlights the importance of the smart glasses supply chain [3] - The smart glasses are positioned as a significant future product in the AI sector [3]