Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continues to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, aiming to maintain ample liquidity and relatively loose social financing conditions to align monetary supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The PBOC's recent report indicates the use of various policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, to ensure sufficient liquidity in the market [1] - Market analysts suggest that there is still room for RRR cuts and interest rate reductions in 2026, although the likelihood of immediate implementation is low [1] - The central bank is expected to utilize Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and reverse repos to inject medium-term liquidity into the market, which will help maintain market liquidity and alleviate banks' liquidity pressure [1] Group 2: Banking Sector Outlook - China Galaxy Securities believes that in a low-interest-rate environment with accelerated inflow of medium- to long-term funds, the banking sector's high dividend and low valuation attributes will continue to attract long-term capital, such as insurance funds [1] - There is a focus on the low valuation configuration window for banks, suggesting potential for valuation reconstruction [1] Group 3: Investment Products - The China Securities Bank ETF (515020) is noted for tracking the CSI Bank Index (399986) with the lowest comprehensive fee rate among ETFs [1] - The linked funds A (008298), C (008299), and D (024642) are also mentioned as part of the investment products related to the banking sector [1]

股指期货：盘⾯平淡 股指期权：买权防御为主 国债期货：窄幅震荡 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 股指期货方面，盘面平淡。周二权益市场走势平淡，全A指数微涨， 传媒表现一枝独秀，食品、地产相对弱势。同时节前开始显现出交投情绪 下降的信号，其一，A股量能略超2万亿，近期换手水平在低位，第二，股 指期货持仓量连续第二日下降超万手，为规避假日波动，部分资金选择进 行降仓处理。同时观察到美元指数下跌及贵金属反弹趋势有所放缓，节前 A股大概率偏震荡状态，上方下方空间均有限。展望后市，两会之前的走 势值得关注，在流动性等负面因素缓和之后有望重回温和反弹走势，而在 两会节点之后，需关注潜在风险，近年两会之后A股表现相对一般。 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-02-11 情绪偏暖，⾛势偏震荡 股指期权方面，买权防御为主。昨日权益指数震荡整理。期权方面， 各个品种市场成交额再度回落。相较于前两周市场波动下的流动性升温， 本周期权交投量能相对平稳。结合隐含波动率的回落，推测目前市场情绪 偏暖。但考虑到节假日和行权日的临近，期权端建议买权防御为主。需要 说明的是，此时建议买权对冲并不意味着看空，而是对整体 ...

来源：芝麻AI 金融市场犹如变幻莫测的海洋，时刻涌动着投资与经济政策的波澜，深刻影响着全球经济的走向。在 此，芝麻AI为您呈上昨夜今晨的财经热点新闻，全方位覆盖股市动态、经济数据、企业财务状况以及 政策更新等关键领域，助您精准洞察金融世界的风云变幻，把握市场脉搏。 黄金价格巨震，美国零售销售数据影响降息预期 2月10日晚间，美股走势分化，黄金巨震。美国公布2025年12月零售销售环比持平，低于预期，美债期 货攀升，降息预期略有升温。当天黄金价格先拉升后跳水，美股三大指数集体高开后震荡。有报道称美 国计划豁免部分科技巨头芯片关税。中概股多数走强，美元指数一度下跌。市场等待本周三美国1月非 农就业报告。详情>> 央行发布2025年四季度货币政策执行报告，继续实施适度宽松政策 白银暴涨暴跌，新手交易获利超老手 北京时间2月11日凌晨，美股收盘涨跌不一，道指再创历史新高，标普500指数因零售数据不及预期和对 人工智能冲击金融业的担忧而震荡走低。零售商股价下跌，金融股承压，投资者等待重要就业和消费者 价格指数报告。道富策略师认为美联储今年可能降息三次，美元或下跌10%。详情>> 特朗普称选错美联储主席，鲍威尔任期将结束 ...

Domestic Developments - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued a temporary measure for input tax deductions on long-term assets, establishing a threshold of 5 million yuan for differentiated deductions, aimed at supporting high-quality economic development[1] - The "2026 Spring Festival Consumption Promotion Plan" was launched, focusing on six areas to stimulate consumer activity during the holiday, with 62.5 billion yuan allocated for subsidies to enhance consumption[1] - The Central Committee's No. 1 Document for 2026 emphasizes long-term agricultural modernization, marking a shift towards sustainable rural development and food security[1] International Market Trends - International gold prices plummeted to approximately $4,404.57 per ounce, with silver prices dropping over 12%, driven by policy expectations and profit-taking[2] - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6 in January, indicating a return to expansion, while ADP employment data showed a disappointing increase of only 22,000 jobs, below expectations[2] - Geopolitical tensions escalated between the U.S. and Iran, impacting oil prices, with Brent crude rising nearly 2.4% due to increased regional risks[2] Commodity Price Movements - Brent crude oil, iron ore, and copper prices decreased by 1.46%, 1.16%, and 1.76% respectively week-on-week[4] - Domestic prices for polysilicon increased by 0.31%, while lithium iron phosphate and lithium carbonate prices fell by 3.14% and 11.38% respectively[4] - The DXI index for storage DRAM prices rose by 2.19%, indicating a positive trend in the midstream sector[4]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the importance of price regulation and reform in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan, aiming to stabilize prices and enhance the welfare of the population [1][2]. Group 1: Price Regulation and Reform - The NDRC and the State Administration for Market Regulation held a meeting to recognize advanced collectives and individuals in price work, highlighting the significance of effective price management for the upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan [1]. - The NDRC plans to strengthen price regulation, promote reasonable price movements, and ensure the supply and price stability of essential goods for the public [1][2]. Group 2: Policy Implementation - A more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy will be implemented, with a focus on promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration in monetary policy [2]. - Structural policies will include actions to boost consumption, increase urban and rural residents' income, and optimize the implementation of new policies to achieve better supply-demand balance [2]. Group 3: Market Regulation - The NDRC aims to address "involution" competition by establishing unified market regulations, standardizing behaviors of local governments and enterprises, and enhancing the market's survival of the fittest mechanism [2]. - Continuous efforts will be made to ensure the stable supply and pricing of essential goods, maintaining a comprehensive control over the production, supply, storage, and sales chain of these goods [2].

● 本报记者 欧阳剑环 总量政策方面，要实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，把促进物价合理回升作为货币政策 的重要考量，发挥存量政策和增量政策的集成效应，推动形成经济增长和物价回升的良性互动。结构政 策方面，要深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划，优化实施"两新"政策，扎实推 进"两重"建设，从而推动供需更加平衡匹配。要深入整治"内卷式"竞争，制定全国统一大市场建设条 例，规范地方政府和企业行为，强化市场优胜劣汰机制，畅通落后低效产能退出渠道。改革政策方面， 要进一步理顺价格关系，促进资源高效配置，确保安全稳定供应。与此同时，要持续做好重要民生商品 保供稳价，毫不松懈抓好重要民生商品产供储销全链条调控，确保量足价稳，夯实民生基本盘。 国家发展改革委2月5日消息，国家发展改革委、市场监管总局日前在京召开全国价格工作先进集体和先 进个人表彰会议。会议强调，2026年是"十五五"开局之年，做好价格工作意义重大。各级价格主管部门 要全面贯彻党的二十大和二十届历次全会精神，认真落实中央经济工作会议部署以及全国发展和改革工 作会议要求，立足宏观治理全局，准确把握价格工作面临的形势和任务，着力加强价格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term cautious and bullish rating on hot - rolled coils [6] Core Viewpoints - The hot - rolled coil futures market is oscillating weakly, with supply relatively stable and demand showing strong resilience despite a decline due to the approaching Spring Festival. The total inventory is at a high level mainly because of high - level social inventory, and there is still inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the resumption of manufacturing operations after the Spring Festival and the inventory depletion speed [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Price**: On Thursday, the open interest of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract increased by 11,934 lots, and the trading volume was 283,875 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3255 yuan, the high was 3278 yuan, and the market was oscillating weakly. In the short - term, it fell below the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving average lines, closing at 3263 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan or 0.40% [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was - 3 yuan [3] 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of February 5, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 0.05 million tons to 3.0916 million tons week - on - week and decreased by 11.03 million tons year - on - year. The current output is at a moderately high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills maintain a high production pace before the Spring Festival and production enthusiasm has increased [4] - **Demand**: As of February 5, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 5.87 million tons to 3.0554 million tons week - on - week and decreased by 8.11 million tons year - on - year. Affected by the Spring Festival shutdown, the demand of downstream manufacturing industries has declined, but it is still at a relatively high level in recent years and shows certain resilience [4] - **Inventory**: As of February 5, the total inventory increased by 3.62 million tons to 3.592 million tons week - on - week (social inventory increased by 2.12 million tons week - on - week, and steel mill inventory increased by 1.5 million tons). The pressure is concentrated in social inventory, and the steel mill inventory is controllable, indicating inventory backlog in the distribution link and insufficient willingness of downstream buyers to purchase [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short - term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The central economic meeting in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, which is beneficial to prices and industry profits, and efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] 3. Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support (the 14th Five - Year Plan, infrastructure investment) [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6] 4. Short - term View Summary - The hot - rolled coil futures decreased in volume today. Short - term pressure is near the 30 - day moving average, and the lower support is the previous low. Adopt a cautious and bullish approach. Currently, the supply is relatively stable, and although the demand has declined mainly due to the approaching Spring Festival, it still shows strong resilience. The total inventory is at a high level mainly due to high social inventory pressure, and inventory pressure still exists. Attention should be paid to the resumption of manufacturing operations after the Spring Festival and the inventory depletion speed [6]

Macro Economic Situation - Export continued to improve with a year-on-year growth of 6.6% in December 2025, driven by structural optimization and competitive advantages of high-tech products [8] - Fixed asset investment in 2025 decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment down by 2.2% and real estate investment down by 17.2% [10][12] - Manufacturing investment showed a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, but was affected by policy adjustments and demand fluctuations [11][12] Liquidity Environment - The Federal Reserve maintained the policy interest rate between 3.50% and 3.75% in January 2026, with expectations of potential rate cuts later in the year [24] - The People's Bank of China released trillions of yuan through reverse repos and MLF to address seasonal funding needs, maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy [23][27] Capital Market Liquidity Environment - ETFs experienced significant outflows in January 2026, indicating a shift towards stabilizing the market and reducing overheating risks [33][46] - Changes in financing rules have led to a more stable growth in financing, with the minimum margin requirement for margin trading increased from 80% to 100% [34] - The pace of stock supply has accelerated due to policies promoting direct financing, with increased IPO and refinancing activities [42][46] Market Strategy - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with limited potential for significant upward movement due to high valuation levels and resistance from previous counter-cyclical adjustments [57] - The focus should shift towards structural opportunities as the market navigates through a vacuum of economic data and performance [57] Industry Allocation - In February 2026, attention should be given to relatively low-positioned consumer and cyclical sectors during the pre-holiday industry style convergence [61] - Opportunities in the AI sector are expected to grow due to ongoing capital investments and domestic demand for computing power [61] - The power equipment industry is anticipated to benefit from overseas photovoltaic expansion plans and significant investments from the State Grid [61]

国债期货日报 | 2026-02-05 移仓进行中，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 12月CPI同比上升0.8%。 财政：（3）财政：2025年全年财政收支整体未达预期，收入受税收走弱与非税高基数拖累，全年一般公共预算 收入同比下降1.7%；支出节奏前置，年末力度减弱，全年完成度偏低。结构上呈现分化特征，民生支出总体稳定， 基建类支出占比下降，土地财政收入持续疲软。展望2026年，财政政策预计延续积极，强调"总量增加、结构更优"， 支出力度有望加强，节奏继续前置，对稳增长形成支撑。（4）金融：2025年前12个月份社会融资规模增量累计为 35.6万亿元，比去年同期3.34万亿：12月末，M2余 ...

国债期货日报 | 2026-02-04 央行买卖国债1000亿，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 12月CPI同比上升0.8%。 策略 单边：回购利率回落，国债期货价格震荡。 套利：关注2603基差回落。 套保：中期存在调整压力，空头可采用远月合约适度套保。 风险 流动性快速紧缩风险 财政：（3）财政：2025年全年财政收支整体未达预期，收入受税收走弱与非税高基数拖累，全年一般公共预算 收入同比下降1.7%；支出节奏前置，年末力度减弱，全年完成度偏低。结构上呈现分化特征，民生支出总体稳定， 基建类支出占比下降，土地财政收入持续疲软。展望2026年，财政政策预计延续积极，强调"总量增加、结构更优" ...