Agenda Focus - The key agenda for the upcoming "Two Sessions" includes the review of the government work report, economic work plan, and budget draft, with significant dates set for March 5, 8, and 11, 2026[1] - Discussions on the "14th Five-Year Plan" will be a major focus, with the full text expected to be released on March 12, 2026[2] Economic Indicators - The weighted GDP growth target for 2026 across 31 provinces is set at 5%, slightly lower than the 5.3% target for 2025, reflecting a pragmatic approach to economic work[3] - The national CPI target for 2026 is likely to remain around 2%, aligning with current economic conditions and aiming for moderate inflation[4] Policy Focus - Fiscal policy is expected to emphasize efficiency, with a projected budget deficit rate maintained at around 4% and local government special bond issuance increasing to approximately CNY 5.5 trillion[5] - The monetary policy is anticipated to maintain a moderately loose stance, focusing on liquidity support and structural precision in financial assistance[6] Consumer Demand - Expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption remain top priorities, with policies shifting towards a balance of goods and service consumption[7] - Recent initiatives include the introduction of personal credit repair policies and collaborative efforts among various departments to stimulate consumption and investment[8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent policy changes in Shanghai and other cities aimed at stabilizing the housing market, including the relaxation of home purchase qualifications for non-local residents and an increase in the maximum public housing loan amount to 3.24 million yuan [1]. Group 1: Policy Changes - Shanghai has fully relaxed home purchase qualifications for non-local residents and raised the maximum public housing loan amount to 3.24 million yuan [1]. - Other cities like Changchun, Weihai, and Hohhot have also introduced policies to optimize public housing loans, focusing on increasing loan limits and supporting family cooperation [1]. - Shenzhen has implemented a new policy for affordable housing, allowing purchases without entering a waiting list [1]. - Hefei has revised its public rental housing management rules, easing educational and social security requirements and streamlining the review process [1]. Group 2: Market Performance - In the 8th week of 2026, the transaction volume of new residential properties in 50 major cities saw a significant increase of 259% month-on-month, but a year-on-year decline of 74% [2]. - The absolute transaction volume remains low, with a 25% decrease compared to the same week last year [2]. - The first-tier cities experienced the largest declines, while second-tier cities showed a quicker recovery, with a year-on-year decline of only 14% compared to the same week last year [3][4]. Group 3: City-Level Analysis - The total transaction area for new residential properties in the 8th week was only 680,000 square meters, with first-tier cities leading in month-on-month growth at 807% [4]. - Shanghai and Shenzhen significantly dragged down the performance of first-tier cities, while second-tier cities like Jinan, Changchun, and Fuzhou achieved substantial growth [4].

国债期货日报 | 2026-03-03 地缘冲突升温，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 1月CPI同比上升0.2%。 财政：（3）财政：2025年全年财政收支整体未达预期，收入受税收走弱与非税高基数拖累，全年一般公共预算收 入同比下降1.7%；支出节奏前置，年末力度减弱，全年完成度偏低。结构上呈现分化特征，民生支出总体稳定， 基建类支出占比下降，土地财政收入持续疲软。展望2026年，财政政策预计延续积极，强调"总量增加、结构更优"， 支出力度有望加强，节奏继续前置，对稳增长形成支撑。（4）金融：1月社融实现开门红，新增规模达7.22万亿元， 同比多增1662亿元，政府债券净融资回升，财政靠前发力 ...

文/ 中欧国际工商学院教授、中国首席经济学家论坛研究院院长 盛松成 ；中欧 陆家嘴国际金融研究院研究员 龙玉 在实施适度宽松的货币政策的同时，需统筹考虑中小银行经营对金融稳定 的影响，畅通货币政策传导，更好发挥中小银行在支持经济薄弱环节、科 技创新等方面的作用和优势。 近年来中小银行风险一直是国家金融风险防控的重点之一，并取得了积极进展，高风险机构数量显著下降，风险呈现收敛态势。2024年9月以 来，我国货币政策转向适度宽松。这对中小金融机构风险的影响是复杂的，低利率环境有利于其化解风险、推动转型，但也在一定程度上加大了 经营压力。 从净息差看，2025年我国农商行净息差已降至1.60%，与2019年的2.81% 相比，收窄1.21个百分点，降幅最大；城商行的净息差则从2019年的 2.09% 降至2025年的1.37%。 在实施适度宽松的货币政策的同时，需统筹考虑中小银行经营对金融稳定的影响，畅通货币政策传导，更好发挥中小银行在支持经济薄弱环节、 科技创新等方面的作用和优势。 防范化解中小金融机构风险取得积极进展 第一，资产质量依然承压。目前我国经济恢复仍不均衡，中小微企业经营较为困难，而中小微企业正是中小 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 焦炭日报：短期偏震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 27 日 【行情分析】 焦炭库存，截至 2 月 27 日全国 230 家独立焦企焦炭库存增加 7.54 万吨至 107.82 万吨，处于 8 个月高位，港口焦炭库存微降 2.16 万吨至 261.7 万吨，钢 厂焦炭库存下降 13.5 万吨至 675.11 万吨，综合库存走低 0.77%至 1044.63 万吨， 止步 9 连增。 利润方面，春节假期焦炭价格保持稳定，本周全国 30 家独立焦化厂吨焦盈 利持稳于-8 元/吨，且各地区吨焦盈利基本保持不变。 下游需求，春节假期结束，钢厂复工复产情况增加，供应有所回升。本周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率环比增加 0.09%至 80.22%，同比去年增加 1.93%;盈利率环 比上涨 1.3%至 39.83%，同比减少 10.39%;日均铁水产量环比增加 2.79 万吨至 233.28 万吨，创近三个月来最高水平。 上游焦煤，春节放假期间，煤矿放假停产，焦煤供应下降;经过假期消耗， 焦企及钢厂库存均走低，炼焦煤综合库存环比下降 278.4 万吨至 2647.31 万吨， 同比低 3.94%。 消 ...

金十期货APP独家整理 | 市场情绪仪表盘 ● 弱势 震荡 强势 ® 极端分化 沪锡/贵金属飙升 | 化工/氧化铝全线下挫 期货下午茶 · 每日复 2026年01月27日 星期五 17:00制作 l 今日关键词 2 沪锡暴涨8% 盒 适度宽松货币 网 交易所巨 时 生猪亏损扩大 l 又 今日焦点 (多头明星) 沪锡 2604 SHFE SN2604 新湖期货: 近日缅甸局部的冲突也带来矿端供应扰动担忧,虽然冲突' 采矿区,与锡矿开采区域较远,但仍拨动市场神经,这都J 的脆弱性。年内锡矿供应虽有一定增量预期,但这都基于1 下载 上一篇： 六年前 广州市 六 中 小时别死, 则将凸显。 | 今日热点资讯 据央视新闻,中共中央政治局2月27日召开会议,2 宏观 续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,强化i 政策协同。要着力建设强大国内市场,加紧培育壮大新动 科技自立自强。 -- 朗部分设施发动攻击的可能性。 Wind: 截至2月27日当周,自繁自养生猪养殖利润 养殖 元/头，节前为亏损98.32元/头，外购仔猪养殖利润为盈利 前为盈利53.10元/头。 Mysteel统计全国45个港口进口铁矿石库存总量17 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations. It is necessary to pay attention to the policy signals at the end of the month in the short - term. The stock market, policy signals, real - estate policies, and external factors all have an impact on the bond market [3]. - The repurchase rate has declined, and the prices of treasury bond futures are oscillating. Attention should be paid to the decline of the 2606 basis. In the medium - term, there is adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.20%, while China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month increase of 0.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.40% [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale is 449.11 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 6.99 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 1.58%. M2 year - on - year is 9.00%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 5.88%. The manufacturing PMI is 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% and a decline rate of 1.60% [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 97.79, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13 and a growth rate of 0.13%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.8433, with a month - on - month increase of 0.010 and a growth rate of 0.15%. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.46, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 and a decline rate of 2.67%. DR007 is 1.48, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of 1.55%. R007 is 1.56, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 and a decline rate of 6.95%. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.56, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.03%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.03% [11]. 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Price Changes**: On February 26, 2026, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.43 yuan, 105.98 yuan, 108.37 yuan, and 112.09 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.03%, - 0.08%, - 0.10%, and - 0.53% [3]. - **Net Basis**: The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL is 0.065 yuan, 0.055 yuan, - 0.010 yuan, and 0.060 yuan respectively [3]. 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - **Central Bank Operations**: On February 26, 2026, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 320.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Repurchase Rates**: The main - term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.368%, 1.457%, 1.529%, and 1.550% respectively, and the repurchase rates have declined recently [2]. 3.4 Spread Overview The report provides multiple spread analysis charts, including the inter - period spread trends of various treasury bond futures varieties and the spread between spot - bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [47][38][40]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents charts of the implied interest rate and the treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [49][51]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report shows charts of the implied interest rate and the treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [53][60]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report includes charts of the implied yield and the treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [61][64]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides charts of the implied yield and the treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [68][71].

国债期货日报 | 2026-02-26 上海地产政策超预期，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 1月CPI同比上升0.2%。 财政：（3）财政：2025年全年财政收支整体未达预期，收入受税收走弱与非税高基数拖累，全年一般公共预算收 入同比下降1.7%；支出节奏前置，年末力度减弱，全年完成度偏低。结构上呈现分化特征，民生支出总体稳定， 基建类支出占比下降，土地财政收入持续疲软。展望2026年，财政政策预计延续积极，强调"总量增加、结构更优"， 支出力度有望加强，节奏继续前置，对稳增长形成支撑。（4）金融：1月社融实现开门红，新增规模达7.22万亿元， 同比多增1662亿元，政府债券净融资回升，财政靠 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest financial statistics released by the central bank indicate that the growth rates of M2 and social financing remain high, creating a favorable monetary environment for economic recovery [1][3]. Monetary Policy and Financing Growth - As of the end of January, the stock of social financing increased by 8.2% year-on-year, while M2 grew by 9.0%, significantly outpacing nominal GDP growth, reflecting a moderately loose monetary policy [3][4]. - The proactive macroeconomic policies, including a reduction in the structural tool interest rate by 0.25 percentage points and increased government bond financing, are key drivers of this growth [3][4]. - In January, government bond financing reached 976.4 billion yuan, an increase of 283.1 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, with its share in total social financing at 13.5%, the highest since 2021 [3][4]. Direct Financing Channels - Besides government bonds, corporate bonds and equity financing are also accelerating, with a focus on providing diversified funding support for high-tech and emerging industries [4][5]. - Companies are increasingly considering a "short loan + long bond" financing model to balance funding costs and durations for project investments and R&D [4]. Credit Growth and Demand Recovery - By the end of January, the balance of RMB loans was 276.62 trillion yuan, growing by 6.1% year-on-year, which is still above nominal economic growth [6][7]. - The first quarter typically sees high credit issuance, and early policy implementation can yield quicker results [6]. - Major projects are driving increased project loan disbursements, with the National Development and Reform Commission announcing a total investment of approximately 295 billion yuan for early construction projects [6]. Support for the Real Economy - In January, new loans to enterprises reached 4.45 trillion yuan, with over 70% being medium- and long-term loans, providing substantial support for manufacturing and emerging industries [7][8]. - Personal loans are also experiencing stable growth due to increased consumer spending ahead of the holiday season, supported by favorable policies extending personal consumption loan interest subsidies [7][8]. High-Quality Development Financing - The growth of inclusive small and micro loans reached 37.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, indicating a shift of credit resources towards high-quality development sectors [8][9]. - The central bank's structural monetary policy tools, such as re-loans, are effectively supporting consumption and innovation, with significant increases in funding for small and medium-sized enterprises [9][10]. Future Monetary Policy Focus - Experts suggest that future monetary policy should emphasize structural optimization, as the economy transitions to medium-high growth and faces challenges such as high household leverage and bank asset quality [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the effectiveness of China's monetary policy, which has been moderately loose, supporting a stable economic start in early 2026 with a year-on-year growth of 8.2% in social financing scale and 9.0% in broad money supply (M2) [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a series of monetary policies, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions, to create a favorable financial environment for economic recovery and structural transformation [1][2] - Since the second half of 2018, the PBOC has lowered the RRR 18 times, providing sustained medium- and long-term liquidity to the banking system, with a cumulative interest rate reduction of 1.15 percentage points, leading to significant savings in interest expenses for borrowers [2] Group 2 - Compared to major economies that have tightened monetary policy through interest rate hikes, China's monetary policy remains relatively loose, with a focus on supporting the real economy and reducing comprehensive financing costs [3] - The current financial supply in China is adequate, but addressing insufficient effective demand requires deeper reforms and coordinated efforts between fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate internal demand [3] - The expectation is for cross-departmental collaboration and a combination of short- and long-term strategies to effectively address the current challenges in demand and stabilize market expectations [3]