Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and ensure a favorable financial environment for sustained economic recovery [1][2]. Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC plans to implement a detailed and moderately accommodative monetary policy, ensuring liquidity remains ample and aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [2]. - The report highlights the importance of promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration in monetary policy, aiming to maintain prices at a reasonable level [2]. Structural Support and Financial Stability - The PBOC aims to utilize both the total and structural functions of monetary policy tools to support sectors such as technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [3]. - The report stresses the need to maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate and prevent excessive fluctuations, enhancing the resilience of the foreign exchange market [3]. Price Level Trends - The report indicates a moderate recovery in price levels, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turning positive in June, and core CPI showing a gradual increase since April [4]. - Factors influencing price levels include ongoing economic improvements and efforts to address low-price competition in certain industries, which are expected to positively impact reasonable price recovery [4]. Credit Structure Optimization - The report discusses the continuous optimization of the credit structure, with a significant portion of new loans directed towards strategic sectors and areas needing support, such as technology and green finance [5]. - The proportion of medium- and long-term loans is increasing, providing stable funding for high-quality economic development, while direct financing's share is also rising [5]. Enhancing Service Consumption - The report highlights the importance of improving high-quality service consumption supply, with a focus on creating effective demand through high-quality supply [6][7]. - Financial policies will target supply-side improvements, ensuring ample liquidity and lowering financing costs to foster consumption growth [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes a continued moderate easing monetary policy, focusing on optimizing the structure of financial resource allocation towards key sectors such as technological innovation and advanced manufacturing [1][5]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Financial Structure - The PBOC's second-quarter monetary policy report highlights a shift in macroeconomic regulation, with a significant increase in the total social financing scale and broad money (M2) balance, surpassing 430 trillion yuan and 330 trillion yuan respectively [2][3]. - The report indicates a strategic focus on directing more financial resources towards technology innovation, advanced manufacturing, green development, and small and micro enterprises, reflecting a clear policy orientation [2][4]. - The structure of new loans has shifted significantly, with loans to technology, green, and inclusive finance now accounting for 60-70% of new loans, compared to a previous focus on real estate and infrastructure [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Services and Economic Development - The report outlines three key future directions for financial services: promoting inclusive finance, supporting technological innovation, and enhancing service consumption [4]. - The current service consumption in China is below 50% of per capita expenditure, indicating substantial growth potential, particularly in areas like elderly care and childcare services [4]. - The PBOC aims to improve the accessibility and sustainability of inclusive finance, while also increasing the volume and reducing the cost of loans for technological sectors [4]. Group 3: Policy Implementation and Coordination - The report stresses the importance of effective implementation of monetary policy measures to ensure liquidity remains ample, with a focus on continuous tracking of policy transmission and actual effects [5][6]. - There is a call for enhanced coordination among fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies to solidify and expand the positive momentum of economic recovery [6].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore - High-level oscillation; Coal and Coke - Oscillation with an upward bias; Rebar - High-level oscillation; Glass - Adjustment; Soda Ash - Adjustment [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai Composite 50 - Rebound; CSI 300 - Oscillation; CSI 500 - Oscillation; CSI 1000 - Upward movement; 2-year Treasury Bond - Oscillation; 5-year Treasury Bond - Oscillation; 10-year Treasury Bond - Upward movement; Gold - High-level oscillation; Silver - High-level oscillation [2][3] - **Light Industry**: Pulp - Weak operation; Logs - Oscillation; Edible Oils - Oscillation with an upward bias; Meal - Oscillation; Soybean No. 2 - Oscillation; Soybean No. 1 - Oscillation; Live Pigs - Oscillation with a downward bias [5][6][7] - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber - Oscillation; PX - Watch; PTA - Watch; MEG - Watch; PR - Watch; PF - Watch [10][11] 2. Core Views - The short - term manufacturing recovery in the iron ore market has been interrupted, and the demand may be suppressed during the environmental protection production restrictions in the north. One can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2] - The coal and coke market has large price fluctuations. The supply of coking coal recovers slowly, and the profit of coke enterprises has improved. Attention should be paid to the supply and demand dynamics [2] - The trading logic of the steel and glass markets has returned to fundamentals. The overall demand is weak, and the inventory may accumulate. The short - term steel products are supported by policies [2] - The stock index market has rebounded, and the risk preference has recovered. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly. The bond market has fluctuations, and the long positions in national debt should also be held lightly [3] - The gold market is affected by factors such as central bank gold purchases, inflation data, and trade policies. It is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [3] - The pulp market has a weak supply - demand pattern and is expected to have a weak price trend. The log market has a good fundamental situation and is expected to oscillate within a range [5][6] - The edible oil market has different supply - demand situations. The inventory of some oils may change, and the price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias. The meal market is under pressure from supply and weak demand, and is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6] - The live pig market has a downward trend in the average trading weight, and the supply is increasing while the consumption is restricted. The price and the slaughterhouse's operating rate are expected to decline [7] - The natural rubber market has a tight supply due to weather and geopolitical factors, and the price is expected to remain strong. The polyester market is affected by multiple factors, and different products have different trends, mainly in a wait - and - see state [10][11] 3. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The short - term manufacturing recovery is interrupted. The northern region will implement environmental protection production restrictions during the September 3rd parade, which may suppress demand. The global iron ore shipment volume has decreased, and the arrival volume has increased. The iron ore fundamentals are currently okay, but there are risks of production reduction and restriction in the future. One can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2] - **Coal and Coke**: The exchange has adjusted the quota for coking coal due to the large price increase. The supply of coking coal recovers slowly, and the five - round price increase of coke has been implemented. The profit of steel mills is high, and the demand for coke is strong. Attention should be paid to the supply dynamics and policy matching [2] - **Rebar**: After the Politburo meeting, the market sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to fundamentals. The demand for building materials has declined in the off - season, and the total demand is weak. The inventory may accumulate, but the short - term steel products are supported by policies [2] - **Glass**: After the Politburo meeting, the trading logic has returned to fundamentals. The glass production line is stable, the inventory of downstream players is low, but the rigid demand has not recovered. The long - term demand is difficult to pick up significantly [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index**: The stock index market has rebounded, and the risk preference has recovered. The central bank's monetary policy is "moderately loose", and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [3] - **National Debt**: The yield of the 10 - year national debt has declined, and the market interest rate has rebounded. The national debt trend has dropped, and it is recommended to hold long positions in national debt lightly [3] - **Gold and Silver**: The gold pricing mechanism is changing. It is affected by central bank gold purchases, inflation, trade policies, and employment data. The market has a high expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, and the price of gold and silver is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [3] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is mainly stable. The cost price of pulp has decreased, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [5] - **Logs**: The demand has increased slightly, and the supply pressure is not large. The cost has increased, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [5][6] - **Edible Oils**: The production of palm oil may slow down, and the inventory may accumulate. The domestic soybean import volume is high, and the inventory of some oils may change. The price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [5][6] - **Meal**: The global supply of soybeans is sufficient, and the domestic supply pressure is significant. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6] - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, the supply is increasing, and the consumption is restricted by high temperatures. The price and the slaughterhouse's operating rate are expected to decline [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply is affected by weather and geopolitical factors, and the demand of the tire industry is differentiated. The inventory in Qingdao Port has decreased, and the price is expected to remain strong [10] - **Polyester Products**: The PX and PTA markets are affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships. The MEG market has supply pressure, and the PR and PF markets are affected by demand and oil prices. They are mainly in a wait - and - see state [10][11]

机构 核心观点 南华期货（603093） 短期热卷盘面上下空间有限 瑞达期货（002961） 热卷行情或陷入区间整理 8月5日盘中，热卷期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至3472.00元。截止收盘，热卷主力合约 报3457.00元，涨幅1.89%。 热卷期货主力涨近2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 宏观方面，央行召开2025年下半年工作会议暨常态长效推动中央巡视整改工作推进会。会议认为，实施 适度宽松的货币政策，降低存款准备金率，灵活运用多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。供需情况， 热卷周度产量止跌回升，产能利用率82.46%，处在相对高位；表观需求回升，库存小幅增加。整体 上，热卷终端需求韧性较强，市场从情绪驱动向现实检验转变，行情或陷入区间整理。技术上， HC2510合约1小时MACD指标显示DIFF与DEA低位反弹。操作上，回调择机短多，注意节奏和风险控 制。 南华期货：短期热卷盘面上下空间有限 前期宏观情绪大幅降温，盘面对此已有一定消化，多品种呈现止跌企稳态势。基本面层面，出口新接单 明显走弱，不过中下游期现及空单回补等暂时对冲了这一影响；钢厂在手订单状况良好，市场抛压暂时 不大。同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to support technological innovation, boost consumption, assist small and micro enterprises, stabilize foreign trade, and deepen financial reform and high-level opening-up, aiming for high-quality economic development in the second half of 2025 [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The PBOC has outlined seven key areas for the next phase of work, including the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the focus on serving the real economy [2] - The PBOC aims to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to ensure reasonable credit growth, aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [2][3] - The meeting indicates a shift towards emphasizing the efficiency of fund usage, with a focus on "activating stock and utilizing increment" [2][3] Group 2: Support for the Real Economy - The PBOC has strengthened financial services for economic structural transformation and high-quality development, focusing on supporting technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [4] - As of June, loans for technology, green projects, inclusive small and micro enterprises, the elderly care industry, and the digital economy grew by 12.5%, 25.5%, 12.3%, 43%, and 11.5% year-on-year, respectively [4] - The PBOC plans to enhance support for technology innovation and technical transformation loans, promoting rapid growth in loans for technology-oriented small and medium enterprises [4][5] Group 3: Future Outlook - The PBOC is expected to increase financial support for technological innovation, potentially through low-interest loans to qualifying tech enterprises and new structural monetary policy tools [6] - The meeting also emphasizes maintaining exchange rate flexibility and preventing excessive fluctuations, while cautiously advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi [6]

本周重磅 7月28日，香港交易所正式宣布，香港证券市场下调最低上落价位的第一阶段将于8月4日（周一）生效。所谓最低上落价位是每只股票的最小价格变动单 位，这项措施将有助于降低市场的交易成本并提升交易效率。 香港交易所发布的消息显示，本次第一阶段的调整则会主要涉及到股价10港元至20港元以及20港元至50港元的股票，这两大范围的最低上落价位将分别由 0.02港元调整为0.01港元以及由0.05港元调整为0.02港元。 宏观·要闻 央行：继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策 中国人民银行8月1日召开2025年下半年工作会议暨常态长效推动中央巡视整改工作推进会，总结2025年以来工作，分析当前金融形势，部署下一阶段工 作。会议提出，继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策。综合运用多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，引导金融机构保持信贷合理增长。突出服务实体经济重 点方向。支持化解重点产业结构性矛盾，加强应收账款电子凭证业务监管与风险防范。稳慎扎实推进人民币国际化，加快拓展贸易项下人民币使用。 美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒辞职 美联储周五（8月1日）宣布，美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒将辞去其在联邦储备委员会的职务。库格勒在致特朗普总统的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The glass futures market continues to show weakness, driven by declining market sentiment and falling coal prices, leading to a significant drop in futures prices [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - Glass futures main contract fell by 3.84%, closing at 1102 yuan/ton, with most previous gains being reversed [1] - As of July 31, the total inventory of float glass in sample enterprises was 59.499 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.397 million weight boxes or 3.87% month-on-month, marking a six-week decline and the lowest level in half a year [2] Group 2: Inventory and Demand - The decline in glass enterprise inventory is primarily due to inventory transfer rather than terminal market consumption, with a reduction in inventory days to 25.5 days, down by 1.1 days [2] - Despite a slight increase in deep processing orders at the end of July, the improvement is limited, and there is a significant amount of glass inventory held by midstream traders [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The core of glass futures price trends in the second half of the year will depend on macroeconomic policies, with expectations of continued active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [2] - Short-term market sentiment is weak, and if social inventory continues to accumulate, glass futures prices may continue to decline [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economy faces challenges in maintaining rapid growth in the second half of the year, and policies may be introduced around the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter. The short - term impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the bond market may have ended, and the bond market may return to a volatile pattern. In the context of the moderately loose monetary policy, a strategy of buying on dips and trading in bands can be considered [104] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Disk Review - **Trend of Treasury Bond Futures Active Contracts**: In the first half of July, the main contract of treasury bond futures showed narrow - range fluctuations. After the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's statement on July 18, the market risk appetite increased, and treasury bond futures prices fell rapidly. After the Sino - US - Swedish economic and trade negotiations and the Politburo meeting on July 30, treasury bond futures prices stopped falling and rebounded [7] - **Yield of Treasury Bond Spot**: In July, the closing yield of 10 - year treasury bond spot rose from 1.65% at the end of June to a maximum of 1.75% and closed at 1.70% on July 31; the closing yield of 30 - year treasury bond spot rose from 1.86% at the end of June to a maximum of 2.00% and closed at 1.95% on July 31 [9] - **Yield Curve of Treasury Bond Spot**: Compared with the end of June, the yield - to - maturity curve of treasury bond spot at the end of July shifted upward as a whole. The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields increased by 6BP, 6BP, 5BP, and 9BP respectively [12] 3.2. Current Analysis - **Macroeconomic Data**: The GDP in the second quarter increased by 5.2% year - on - year, meeting market expectations. The GDP deflator in the second quarter decreased by 1.20% year - on - year. The national fixed - asset investment in the first half of the year increased by 2.8% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. The real estate market continued to decline, with the sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing decreasing year - on - year, and the price of second - hand housing in first, second, and third - tier cities falling [17][19][22] - **Consumption Data**: In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. Most categories of consumer goods in units above the designated size saw a decline in growth rate compared with May [33][35] - **Service Industry Data**: In June, the national service industry production index increased by 6.0% year - on - year. The growth rates of some industries such as information technology and leasing and business services were relatively high [37] - **Foreign Trade Data**: In June, China's exports increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1% year - on - year. The trade surplus was 114.77 billion US dollars. In July, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) declined slightly, and the decline of the US - West route was faster [40][45] - **Industrial Data**: In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year, higher than market expectations. The product sales rate decreased, and the capacity utilization rate in the second quarter decreased compared with the previous quarter. The national urban surveyed unemployment rate remained stable [48][50][52] - **Price Data**: In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. In July, the agricultural product wholesale price hovered at a low level, and the South China Industrial Products Index rose [56][62][64] - **PMI Data**: In July, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, below the boom - bust line for the fourth consecutive month. The production index continued to expand, while the demand index re - entered the contraction range. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, showing a decline [67][70][73] - **Financial Data**: In June, the social financing scale increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, and the RMB loans increased by 2.24 trillion yuan. At the end of June, M2 increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and M1 increased by 4.6% year - on - year. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was relatively stable, and the high interest rate spread between Chinese and US treasury bonds restricted the flexibility of domestic interest rate cuts. The market expects a high probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September [76][80][89] - **Bond Market Data**: In July, DR001 had a larger fluctuation range, and the government bond net financing maintained a fast pace. The spread between 10 - year and 1 - year treasury bonds slightly widened, and the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds fluctuated around 0.2% [92][95][99] 3.3. Strategy Recommendations - Given the current economic situation and policy environment, in the context of the moderately loose monetary policy, a strategy of buying on dips and trading in bands can be considered [104]

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump announced the deployment of two nuclear submarines near Russia in response to comments made by Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council [11] - International gold prices increased, with spot gold rising by 2.22% to $3362.64 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures up by 2.01% to $3416.00 per ounce [3][11] - The lawsuit involving the "Zong Family Siblings" and Wahaha's current chairman, Zong Qinghou's daughter, Zong Fuli, resulted in a ruling regarding a family trust worth $2.1 billion [26] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth, including lowering the reserve requirement ratio and using various monetary policy tools [5] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the resumption of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds starting August 8, 2025 [6] - The National Radio and Television Administration initiated a campaign to rectify false medical advertisements, focusing on eliminating such content by the end of 2025 [7] Group 3 - The mechanical industry in China aims for widespread application of digital technologies by 2027, with a target of 50% of enterprises achieving a maturity level of two or above in intelligent manufacturing [10] - The new rules for mandatory product certification for mobile power supplies and lithium-ion batteries will take effect on August 15, 2025 [9] Group 4 - In July, BYD reported a total vehicle sales of 344,296 units, a slight increase from 342,383 units year-on-year, with electric vehicle sales reaching 177,887 units [13] - Li Auto delivered 30,731 new vehicles in July, bringing its cumulative delivery to 1,368,541 units [14] - Geely's total vehicle sales in July reached 237,700 units, marking a 58% year-on-year increase [16] Group 5 - The three major food delivery platforms in China, Meituan, Taobao Flash Purchase, and Ele.me, called for an end to irrational competition and subsidies in the industry [17] - Zhi Yuan Robotics completed a new round of strategic financing led by LG Electronics and Mirae Asset, marking LG's first investment in the field of embodied intelligence [19] - Alibaba's former chairman, Zhang Yong, joined the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's China Business Advisory Committee [20]

7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议明确提出"用好各项结构性货币政策工具""加力支持小微企 业"。本次会议也要求，"突出服务实体经济重点方向"。 证券时报记者 贺觉渊 中国人民银行8月1日召开2025年下半年工作会议暨常态长效推动中央巡视整改工作推进会。 会议要求，中国人民银行系统要落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，加力支持科技创新、提振消费、小 微企业、稳定外贸等，进一步深化金融改革和高水平对外开放，防范化解重点领域金融风险。会议提 出，继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策。 会议认为，2025年以来，金融支持经济持续向好力度加大。央行实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵活运 用多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，促进金融市场利率和社会综合融资成本下行，巩固拓展整治资 金空转、金融业"内卷式"竞争成效。 据本次会议披露，6月末，科技、绿色、普惠小微、养老产业、数字经济产业贷款分别同比增长 12.5%、25.5%、12.3%、43%、11.5%。近年来，央行通过引导金融机构强化对普惠小微主体的金融供 给，推动普惠小微贷款保持较快增长。记者了解到，截至6月末，普惠小微贷款中信用贷款占比近三 成，比上季度末高0.7个百分点，反映出金融机构更 ...