Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India may consider an interest rate cut in the fourth quarter, with a possibility of earlier action, as June's CPI is expected to decline to 2.2%, the lowest since February 2019 [1] Inflation Outlook - The June CPI year-on-year rate is projected to decrease to 2.2%, down from 2.82% in May, indicating a continued slowdown in inflation [1] - The decline in inflation is attributed to favorable base effects from food price inflation, which offsets the monthly increase in food costs [1] Central Bank Policy - The Reserve Bank of India is anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter, with the potential for earlier action if inflation trends continue [1] - The risk of food price shocks is considered low, supporting the case for a rate cut [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Goldman Sachs anticipates the Federal Reserve may lower policy interest rates in September due to a moderation in inflation and a slowdown in inflationary pressures [1] - The expected terminal interest rate has been revised to a range of 3% to 3.25%, down from the previous estimate of 3.5% to 3.75% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Dutch International Bank anticipates that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6% in the upcoming meeting due to weaker-than-expected growth and inflation data [1] Inflation and Economic Data - Australia's overall inflation rate decreased from 2.4% in April to 2.1% in May, approaching the central bank's target range lower limit of 2-3% [1] - The latest monetary policy statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia indicates a decline in voluntary resignation rates, shifting wage negotiations towards job security, which may lead to a slowdown in wage growth beyond current expectations [1] Future Rate Expectations - Given the prevailing risks of declining growth and inflation, the forecast for rate cuts in 2025 has been increased by 25 basis points, with an expected cash rate of 3.1% by the end of the year [1] - Global tariff uncertainties persist, but both overall and core inflation have established a downward trend, likely maintaining around the midpoint of the 2-3% range in the coming quarters [1]

Group 1 - The Turkish Finance Minister stated that many sectors are beginning to show a significant slowdown in inflation, and this trend is expected to continue [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Central Bank of Russia, led by Governor Nabiullina, has observed a faster-than-expected slowdown in inflation [1] Group 2 - The Central Bank is closely monitoring inflation trends and adjusting its policies accordingly [1] - The unexpected pace of inflation decline may influence future monetary policy decisions [1]

Group 1 - David Rosenberg warns of an impending U.S. economic recession, suggesting that the current "full cup" state of the stock market will suffer significantly [1] - Rosenberg believes the market is ignoring risks such as tariffs, taxes, geopolitical conflicts, and economic concerns, indicating a disconnect between market optimism and underlying economic signals [1][2] - He expresses a cautious outlook on the stock market, citing a price-to-earnings ratio of 22 times in the context of over 4% risk-free interest rates as unattractive [2] Group 2 - Rosenberg acknowledges previous concerns about economic downturns in 2022 and 2023 but reiterates his bearish stance, noting an increase in mortgage refinancing activity and a 25% excess in supply over demand in the housing market [3] - He highlights a cooling labor market and persistent moderate inflation, criticizing the Federal Reserve for inaction and suggesting that rate cuts may come too late to salvage the economy [5] - Rosenberg points out a significant deflationary trend in the service sector, predicting that inflation levels next year will be lower than in a scenario without tariffs [6] Group 3 - The signals from the dollar and bond markets contradict the current optimistic sentiment in the stock market, leading Rosenberg to question where investors should allocate their funds [6] - He indicates that if the signals from the dollar and bond markets are accurate, the S&P 500 index will struggle to maintain levels above 6000 points [7] - As of the latest data, the S&P 500 index closed at 6141 points, just below its historical high, while the dollar index has dropped by 10% this year [10]

英国央行货币政策委员格林：数据波动较大意味着我需要更长时间才能对近期的通胀放缓趋势感到满 意。 ...

Core Insights - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) officials indicate that the latest data shows inflation has eased more than expected since the monetary policy meeting in April [1] Group 1 - The RBI's assessment highlights a significant reduction in inflation levels, suggesting a more favorable economic environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has observed a trend of slowing inflation, but the sustainability of this trend remains to be confirmed [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank indicates that inflation is showing signs of deceleration [1] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the current trend of inflation reduction can be maintained in the long term [1]

美元/加元正在接近1.3588的支撑位，这对应于四小时图上下降楔形形态的底部。该水平现在已成为近 期阻力位，有助于看跌势头。 相对强弱指数（RSI）目前接近32，表明看跌偏见并接近超卖区域，但仍有进一步下跌的潜力。 如果看跌势头持续，价格可能会达到心理支撑位1.3500，并可能导致价格进一步下跌至10月的低点 1.3472。另一方面，如果价格升至1.3588上方并突破心理阻力位1.3600，则可能为美元/加元多头提供重 新测试10周期简单移动平均线（SMA）1.3624的机会。 最新财经数据一览： 待定欧佩克公布月度原油市场报告 同样在周五，密歇根大学发布了初步消费者信心调查，显示美国家庭的信心明显上升。与此同时，一年 期和五年期消费者通胀预期均小幅走低，与本周早些时候低于预期的消费者价格指数和生产者价格指数 数据相呼应。通胀放缓增加了美联储降息的可能性，从而降低了美国收益率并打压了美元。 周一（6月16日）亚盘时段，美元/加元冲高回落，目前交投于1.3605附近，截止北京时间11:29，美元对 加元报价1.3599，涨幅0.11%，上一交易日美元兑加元汇率最低价为1.3652，收盘价报1.3584。加元兑美 ...