Core Insights - Australia's overall consumer price index (CPI) year-on-year increase for August 2025 is 3%, up from 2.8% in July, aligning with market expectations [1] - The monthly inflation rate, excluding volatile items like fruits, vegetables, and automotive fuel, is 3.4%, an increase from 3.2% in July [1] - The trimmed mean inflation rate, a key indicator of core inflation, decreased from 2.7% to 2.6% [1] Price Changes - Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increased by 3% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month [1] - Alcohol and tobacco prices decreased from a 6.5% increase to 6% [1] - Clothing and footwear prices rose from 2.3% to 3% [1] - Housing prices increased from 3.6% to 4.5%, with rent prices decreasing from 3.9% to 3.7% and new housing prices rising from 0.4% to 0.7% [1] - Electricity prices surged from a 13.6% increase to 24.6% [1] - Furniture, household equipment, and services prices remained stable at a 0.9% increase [1] - Healthcare prices remained unchanged at a 4.1% increase [1] - Transportation prices shifted from a 1% decrease to a 0.4% increase, with automotive fuel prices changing from a 5.5% decrease to a 1.7% decrease [1] - Communication prices rose from 0.8% to 1.9% [1] - Entertainment prices decreased from 2.6% to 1.4% [1] - Education prices slightly decreased from 5.6% to 5.5% [1] - Insurance and financial services prices decreased from 3.1% to 3% [1] Inflation Commentary - The overall inflation rate in Australia for August has reached its highest level since July 2024, primarily driven by high increases in housing, food, and non-alcoholic beverage prices [2] - The trimmed mean inflation rate, which better reflects inflation trends, decreased by 0.1 percentage points in August [2]

Group 1 - The OECD's mid-term economic outlook report predicts a global economic growth rate of 3.2% for 2025, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the June forecast, while growth is expected to slow to 2.9% in 2026, consistent with the June prediction [1] - The report highlights stronger-than-expected resilience in global economic growth, particularly in emerging market economies, during the first half of 2025 [1] - The report warns of significant risks to the global economic outlook, including potential increases in tariff rates, renewed inflation pressures, heightened concerns over fiscal risks, and reassessment of financial market risks [1] Group 2 - The report forecasts that the U.S. economic growth rate will decline from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, further slowing to 1.5% in 2026, due to the offsetting effects of tariffs and tightened immigration policies against strong investment growth in high-tech industries [1] - The Eurozone's economic growth is projected to be 1.2% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026 [1] - The G20 countries' overall inflation rate is expected to decrease from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, with core inflation rates in developed economies projected to fall to 2.6% and 2.5% in the next two years [1] Group 3 - The report recommends that countries enhance cooperation within the global trade system while improving the transparency and predictability of trade policies in response to economic security concerns [2] - Central banks are advised to remain vigilant and respond swiftly to changes in risks affecting price stability [2] - There is a call for increased structural reform efforts to improve living standards and unlock the potential benefits of new technologies such as artificial intelligence [2]

三位美联储官员支持美联储设定通胀目标区间，而不是维持目前2%的固定目标。 美联储理事斯蒂芬.米兰、米歇尔.鲍曼以及亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔.博斯蒂克本周都在不同场合讨论了 这一想法。他们的言论是在美联储8月份完成五年一度的政策制定框架审查之后发表的，当时就已明确 排除了调整通胀目标的可能性。 今年，美国总统唐纳德.特朗普对美联储施加了巨大压力，要求其降低利率。美联储主席杰罗姆.鲍威尔 任期将于明年5月到期，特朗普有机会任命新的美联储主席，这引发了人们对美联储在新领导带领下可 能进行结构性改革的猜测。 美联储青睐的通胀指标高于目标水平 米兰是特朗普的盟友，也是白宫经济学家。他于9月16日以临时理事的身份加入美联储。米兰周一表 示，"非常明确"的通胀目标可能会导致过度的微观管理，并补充说，美联储应该对其他选择持开放态 度。 他表示："关于通胀目标以及相关讨论内容，我实际上愿意采用区间的方式来表述。" 当被问及他希望的通胀区间是多少时，博斯蒂克表示，他希望通胀区间足够窄，以防止通胀上行势头增 强。 他表示："大概在2.25%到1.75%之间吧，差不多就是这个范围。" 鲍曼表示："世界其他国家采用了目标区间。"她称，这 ...

报告预计，二十国集团国家总体通胀率将由2025年的3.4%降至2026年的2.9%，其中发达经济体今明两 年的核心通胀率预计将分别降至2.6%和2.5%。 报告建议，各国应在全球贸易体系中加强合作，在回应经济安全关切的同时提高贸易政策透明度和可预 测性。同时，各国央行应保持警惕，对影响价格稳定的风险平衡变化迅速作出反应。各国还应加大结构 性改革努力，推动生活水平持续提高，并释放人工智能等新技术带来的潜在红利。 经合组织今年6月发布经济展望报告，当时预计2025年和2026年全球经济增速均为2.9%，较今年3月预 测值分别下调0.2和0.1个百分点。 （文章来源：新华社） 新华财经巴黎9月23日电（记者崔可欣）经济合作与发展组织（经合组织）23日发布中期经济展望报 告，预计2025年全球经济增速为3.2%，较今年6月预测值上调0.3个百分点；2026年全球经济增速将放缓 至2.9%，与6月预测值相同。 报告指出，2025年上半年，全球经济增长展现出比预期更强的韧性，特别是新兴市场经济体。美国关税 政策的冲击尚未完全释放，正逐步传导至开支选择、劳动力市场和消费价格层面。报告认为，全球经济 前景仍面临重大风险，关税 ...

Core Insights - Croatia's consumer price index (CPI) increased by 4.1% year-on-year in August, with a slight month-on-month rise of 0.1% [1] - The largest price increases were observed in housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels, which rose by 8.1% year-on-year, followed by restaurants and hotel accommodation (+7.5%) and non-alcoholic beverages (+6.3%) [1] - The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in Croatia rose by 4.6% year-on-year in August, with an average month-on-month increase of 0.2% [1] Price Changes by Category - Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels: +8.1% year-on-year [1] - Restaurants and hotel accommodation: +7.5% year-on-year [1] - Non-alcoholic beverages: +6.3% year-on-year [1] - Education: +5.9% year-on-year [1] - Medical services: +5.1% year-on-year [1] - Transportation: -1.3% year-on-year [1] - Clothing and footwear: -0.6% year-on-year [1] - Communication services: -0.4% year-on-year [1] Additional Insights - Service prices increased by 6.4% year-on-year in August [1] - Food, alcoholic beverages, and tobacco products saw a year-on-year price increase of 6.2% [1] - Energy prices rose by 2.5% year-on-year, while non-food industrial goods (excluding energy) increased by 0.5% year-on-year [1]

格隆汇9月23日｜美联储理事米兰表示，当前的利率水平"非常具有限制性"。致力于将通胀率降至2%， 认为联邦基金利率的合适水平在2%区间中段，比当前水平低近2个百分点。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

据欧盟统计局数据，2025年8月欧盟通胀率为2.4%，与上年同期持平。从成员国看，8月份通胀率 最高的国家是罗马尼亚，同比上涨8.5%，爱沙尼亚同比上涨6.2%，克罗地亚同比上涨4.6%；通胀率最 低的国家是塞浦路斯，为0%，法国为0.8%，意大利为1.6%。 （原标题：欧盟2025年8月通胀率为2.4%） ...

8月份就业数据弱于预期，澳元维持低迷。 由于市场目前预期澳大利亚央行9月份降息的可能性仅为20%，澳元或将重拾升势。 美元在公布每周初请失业金人数后继续上涨。 周五，澳元兑美元小幅走低，连续第三个交易日下跌。周四美国公布每周初请失业金人数后，美元获得支撑，澳元/美元汇率保持低迷。 就业报告弱于预期，澳元也承压。报告显示，澳大利亚8月份经季节性调整的就业人口变化从7月份的2.65万人（修正后为2.45万人）降至-5.4万人，而市场 普遍预期为2.2万人。与此同时，8月份失业率稳定在4.2%，符合预期。 澳元因澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）进一步降息的可能性逐渐减弱而获得支撑。市场目前预计9月份降息的可能性仅为20%，而11月份降息的可能性则为 70%，高于目标的通胀率令政策制定者保持谨慎。 据彭博社周四晚间报道，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，他可能在周五与中国国家主席习近平的领导人会晤时进一步延长贸易休战协议，此外还将促成 TikTok美国业务的出售。 美元在初请失业金人数走软后上涨，澳元上涨 国家统计局周一公布，中国8月份社会消费品零售总额同比增长3.4%，预期增长3.8%，7月份增长3.7%。同期，中国规模以上工 ...

在凤凰湾区财经论坛2025前夕，上海交通大学上海高级金融学院实践教授胡捷表示，预计今年美联储可 能还将有两次降息，每次降息25个基点，而明年降息次数可能更多。他分析指出，当前通胀率形势相对 乐观，同时就业市场呈现走弱迹象。美联储在两者之间的权衡结果，或将促使它开启降息通道。 ...

美联储周三一如预期降息，并暗示将进一步宽松，但政策制定者对利率路径的看法存在分歧。 随着美元复苏势头减弱，欧元缩减此前跌幅，重返1.1830上方。 适度的风险偏好可能在周四支撑美元的反弹。 美联储将基准利率下调25个基点至4.0%-4.25%区间，点阵图的中值预计未来两次会议将进一步降息两次，突显出美联储立场较6月份预测的温和转变。 美联储在其经济预测摘要中，将美国今明两年国内生产总值（GDP）增长预测分别从1.4%和1.6%上调至1.6%和1.8%。预计PCE通胀率在今年年底将保持在 3%，并在2026年降至2.6%，高于6月份预测的2.4%。失业率在今年年底将达到4.5%，与之前的预测持平，并在2026年降至4.4%。6月份，对明年的预测为 4.5%。 在利率方面，政策制定者表现出更广泛的分歧。预测中值显示，美联储将在今年最后一个季度进一步降息50个基点，其中最强硬的预测倾向于12月份的 4.4%的利率，而最低的预测——可能是特朗普新任命的美联储主席斯蒂芬·米兰——则倾向于2.9%的利率。这种差异使中值预测受到质疑。 宏观经济数据方面，周二公布的数据显示，美国8月份零售额环比增长0.6%，同比增长5%，分 ...