Group 1 - The main futures contract for iron ore surged by 4%, reaching 766 yuan per ton [1] - The Singapore iron ore index's main contract increased by over 3%, currently priced at 99.45 USD per ton [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of Iron Ore 2509 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the resurgence of production restrictions has put pressure on the price of iron ore, causing it to weaken [2]. - The short - term trend of iron ore will continue to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production restrictions. Although the demand for iron ore shows good resilience, there are concerns about demand due to the resurgence of production restrictions, and the supply is relatively stable, so the supply - demand pattern has not improved substantially [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2509, in the short - term (within a week), the trend is expected to be volatile; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it is also volatile; and intraday, it is weakly volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the resurgence of production restrictions has put pressure on the price of iron ore [2]. Market Driving Logic - The resurgence of production restrictions has put pressure on the prices of raw material - related futures. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Steel mills are actively producing, and the demand for iron ore shows good resilience, which supports the price of iron ore, but the incremental space in the off - season is questionable. - After the end - of - fiscal - year shipment rush, the shipments of overseas miners have declined, and attention should be paid to the subsequent decline. The port arrivals have also decreased, and the overseas supply of iron ore has shrunk. However, the domestic iron ore production has recovered actively, so the overall supply contraction is limited. - Currently, the demand for iron ore shows good resilience, which supports the price, but due to the resurgence of production restrictions, there are concerns about demand, and the supply is relatively stable. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved substantially, and the short - term trend will continue to be volatile [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend, with the price of iron ore 2509 showing short - term, medium - term oscillations and intraday weak oscillations, and attention should be paid to the support at the MA10 line [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillating, and the intraday trend is weakly oscillating. The reference view is to focus on the support at the MA10 line, with the core logic being that the fundamentals are weakly stable and the ore price continues to oscillate [1] Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakly stable. Terminal consumption of ore is continuously decreasing and there is room for further reduction in the off - season, while overseas miners are actively shipping at the end of the fiscal year. Although domestic ore production is restricted, the supply pressure remains. The price of discounted ore has oscillated upward due to the repair of pessimistic expectations, but the supply - strong and demand - weak situation makes the fundamentals weak, and the upward driving force is not strong [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to continue its low - level oscillating trend. The report suggests paying attention to the performance of steel products and the pressure at the MA5 line [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The reference view is to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being that the fundamentals are weakly stable and the ore price is oscillating at a low level [2]. Market Driving Logic - Steel mills are actively producing, and the demand for ore is good, which supports the ore price. However, the high demand has not led to inventory depletion because the supply has returned to a high level. There are concerns that the post - holiday demand may reach its peak, the fundamental outlook is weakening, and risk appetite is weakening before the holiday. Therefore, the ore price is expected to continue its low - level oscillating trend [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 4 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 悲观情绪未退，矿价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局相对良好，钢厂利润尚可，旺季生产积极，矿石需求维持高位，给予矿价支撑。 与此同时，港口到货表现弱稳，而海外矿商发运回落，外矿供应收缩，持续性有待跟踪，但内矿供应 维持高位，利好有限。总之，供弱需增局面下矿石基本面相对良好，给予矿价支撑，但关税风险超预 期，看 ...