1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is expected to remain in a low - level consolidation, with low real - time demand in the off - season, but low production and continued inventory decline [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to show a volatile trend, with a decrease in global shipments and an increase in demand and inventory changes [1]. - The coking coal market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with some coal mines suspending production, cautious procurement by downstream enterprises, and a decline in market sentiment [1]. - The coke market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with low production enthusiasm of coke enterprises and weak downstream demand [1]. - The ferromanganese - silicon market is expected to remain in low - level fluctuations, with no strong fundamental drivers and weak cost support [1][3]. - The ferrosilicon market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with limited supply - demand drivers and stable raw material prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 2986 yuan/ton, with stable spot prices and low transactions. This week, the national rebar production increased by 4.61 tons week - on - week to 212.18 tons, and inventories continued to decline. It is expected to remain in low - level consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the iron ore futures main contract i2509 rose to 698 yuan/ton, with an increase in port spot prices. Global shipments decreased, while demand and some inventories increased. It is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 790.5 yuan/ton. Some coal mines suspended production, downstream procurement was cautious, and it is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1374 yuan/ton, with a decline in spot prices. Coke enterprises had low production enthusiasm and weak downstream demand, and it is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Ferromanganese - Silicon**: The ferromanganese - silicon futures price trended stronger, with the main contract at 5584 yuan/ton. The steel tender price was 5650 yuan/ton, with some new production and production cuts. It is expected to remain in low - level fluctuations [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price trended stronger, with the main contract at 5310 yuan/ton. Production increased week - on - week, demand was weak, and raw material prices were stable. It is expected to fluctuate [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese - silicon, and ferrosilicon were provided, along with their week - on - week changes [4]. - Profit data such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit, as well as cross - variety spreads like coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc., were presented, along with their week - on - week changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Main Contract Prices**: Included price trend charts of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese - silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13][16]. - **3.3.2 Main Contract Basis**: Included basis trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese - silicon, and ferrosilicon [19][20][23][25]. - **3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Included spread trend charts of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese - silicon, and ferrosilicon [27][29][31][33][35][36][39]. - **3.3.4 Cross - variety Contract Spreads**: Included spread trend charts of main contracts such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc. [41][43][45]. - **3.3.5 Rebar Profit**: Included profit trend charts of rebar's main contract disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [46][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Introduced members of the black research team including Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, along with their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [52][53].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the market's expectations for future supply and demand remain pessimistic. It is expected that the short - term steel futures market will mainly operate in a low - level consolidation [1]. - The iron ore market is in a state of mixed long and short factors. It is expected that the iron ore futures price will show a narrow - range oscillation trend [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are affected by factors such as weak demand and inventory pressure. It is expected that the short - term futures markets of coking coal and coke will oscillate [1]. - The manganese silicon and silicon iron markets have limited fundamental driving forces. It is expected that the short - term prices of manganese silicon will mainly operate in a low - level oscillation, and the silicon iron prices will oscillate [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 2986 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.17% from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. Spot prices were stable with a slight increase, and trading volume remained low. National building material production increased slightly, inventory decline expanded, and apparent demand rebounded, indicating some resilience in current building material demand. It is expected to operate in a low - level consolidation in the short term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the iron ore futures main contract i2509 fell to 695.5 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.5% from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. Port spot prices declined. Global iron ore shipments decreased, blast furnace operating rates and molten iron production continued to decline, and inventory increased. It is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures 2509 contract closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.13% from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. Some coal mines stopped production, the market trading atmosphere was cold, and coal mine inventory pressure was high. Demand from coking and steel enterprises weakened. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures 2509 contract closed at 1375 yuan/ton, up 9.5 yuan/ton or 0.7% from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. Spot prices were stable. Coke enterprises' production enthusiasm was not high, and downstream procurement willingness was low. Steel mills' coke inventory was at a medium - to - high level, and procurement enthusiasm was weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price oscillated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5556 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous day, with a decrease in positions. The market price of 6517 manganese silicon increased in some areas. Although the weekly production of manganese silicon was at a low level in recent years, it had increased for four consecutive weeks. The mainstream steel tender pricing had not been announced. It is expected to operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron futures price oscillated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5290 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day, with a decrease in positions. The spot price in Inner Mongolia increased. The terminal demand for steel and magnesium was weak during the rainy season. Some manufacturers in the main production areas had production - increasing expectations. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: Data on contract spreads and basis for various varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron are provided, including the latest values and their changes compared to the previous period [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: Data on profits (such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) are provided, including the latest values and their changes compared to the previous period [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron over different time periods [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads of different contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [25][28][29][32][33][35][37]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties, such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc. [40][42][44]. - **Rebar Profits**: Charts show the disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of the rebar main contract from 2020 to 2025 [45][49]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and relevant professional qualifications [51][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the black commodity futures generally rose and stabilized. The real - estate market received positive macro signals, but the real - estate data from January to May did not improve. The demand in the off - season led to more blast furnace overhauls in steel mills and a continuous decline in hot metal production, which suppressed the alloy market sentiment. However, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills remained at a relatively high level, and the short - term rigid demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese still existed. The supply of ferrosilicon was at a low level, but the high inventory pressure limited the upward movement of the market. Manganese silicon faced cost and supply pressure. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The closing prices and price changes of various black commodity futures on June 17 are as follows: the closing price of rebar was 2981 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; hot - rolled coil was 3093 yuan/ton, up 0.13%; iron ore was 699 yuan/ton; coking coal was 789.5 yuan/ton, up 0.55 yuan or 0.70%; coke was 1365.5 yuan/ton, up 13.5 yuan or 1.00%. The basis for rebar was 119, for hot - rolled coil was 107, for iron ore was 21, for coking coal was 120.5, and for coke was - 120.5. [1] Market Analysis - On the demand side, the real - estate market had positive signals but the data from January to May did not improve. In the off - season, steel mills had more blast furnace overhauls, and hot metal production declined, suppressing the alloy market. However, the high profitability rate of steel mills meant weak willingness to cut production, and the short - term rigid demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese still existed. [1] - On the supply side, the production of ferrosilicon was at a low level, but high inventory limited upward movement. Manganese silicon faced cost - inversion pressure, slow sales, and potential new production capacity, which might increase supply pressure. [1] - In terms of cost, coal prices were stable, and the impact on ferrosilicon was limited. The manganese ore market was stabilizing, and coke prices were expected to have a fourth - round reduction. The cost line of manganese silicon was weakly stable. [1] Investment Suggestions - For iron ore, pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices. For rebar, adopt a short - term shock - based approach and focus on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. For hot - rolled coil, take a short - term high - level consolidation approach and focus on supply - demand changes. For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two. [1] Summary - Without obvious improvement in fundamentals, the improvement in market sentiment had limited driving force for ferrosilicon prices, and it should be regarded as a short - term rebound. For manganese silicon, the price center might move up due to short - term market sentiment, but continuous upward movement required the resonance of macro and reality, and currently the driving force was weak, also regarded as a rebound. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures market rose slightly. The May steel market was in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures will mainly operate in a low - level consolidation [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures price rose. With supply decreasing and demand and inventory showing mixed trends, it is expected that the iron ore futures price will show a narrow - range oscillation [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures price rose. Affected by supply, demand, and policy expectations, it is expected that the short - term coking coal futures will oscillate [1]. - Coke: The coke futures price rose. Due to environmental protection and demand factors, it is expected that the short - term coke futures will oscillate [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price strengthened. Driven by short - term market sentiment, the price center may move up, but it should be treated as a rebound [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price strengthened. With limited fundamental improvement, the short - term price increase is driven by market sentiment and should be treated as a rebound [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 2990 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton or 0.71%. The spot price rose slightly, and the trading volume increased. From January to May, national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, with real estate investment down 10.7%, infrastructure investment up 5.6%, and manufacturing investment up 8.5%. In May, the production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel decreased or increased year - on - year, and the daily average production decreased month - on - month [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore i2509 contract was 704.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.2%. Port spot prices rose. In May, pig iron production decreased year - on - year. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased, the blast furnace operating rate decreased, and inventory increased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 795.5 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton or 2.71%. Some coal mines stopped production, and the market procurement sentiment was weak. It is in the seasonal demand off - season [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1371 yuan/ton, up 21.5 yuan/ton or 1.59%. Environmental protection inspections were tightened, and coke enterprises' production enthusiasm declined. The blast furnace operating rate was stable, and the market had a downward expectation for future demand [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price rose by 2.35%. The real estate market had positive signals, but the fundamental support was weak, and it should be treated as a rebound [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price rose by 2.04%. The market sentiment improved, but the fundamental drive was limited, and it should be treated as a rebound [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: Data on the contract spreads of steel, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are provided, including the latest values and their month - on - month changes [4]. - **Basis**: Data on the basis of various varieties are provided, including the latest values and their month - on - month changes [4]. - **Spot Price**: The latest spot prices of various varieties in different regions and their month - on - month changes are provided [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: Data on the profits and spreads of various varieties are provided, including the latest values and their month - on - month changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [19][20][23][25]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts show the inter - period contract spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [27][29][31][34][36][37][39]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts show the inter - variety contract spreads of main contracts, including the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coke to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to coke, and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [42][44][46]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts show the main contract's coal - coke ratio, double - silicon spread, rebar's main contract's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. With rich experience in the field of resource products [52]. - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute. Good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute. With experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures trading [53].

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面小幅上涨，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 2991 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 低位整理 | | | 上涨 17 元/吨，涨幅为 0.57%，持仓减少 0.1 万手。现货价格小幅上涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | | | | 价格上涨 20 元/吨至 2920 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 30 元/吨至 3090 元/吨，全国建材成交量 | | | | 10.46 万吨。据钢谷网数据，本周全国建材产量回落 8.16 万吨至 413.77 万吨，社库增加 1.77 万吨至 552.24 | | | | 万吨，厂库回落 12.97 万吨至 313.18 万吨；建材表需回落 6.56 万吨至 232.52 万吨。建材产量继续回落， | | | | 库存降幅趋缓，表需继续回落，市场需求淡季特征有所显现。中美经贸磋商机制首次会议就措施框架达成 | | | | 原则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展，对市场情绪形成 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market, including rebar and hot - rolled coils, is expected to be in low - level consolidation. The rebar spot has no obvious supply - demand contradiction, but it has entered the consumption off - season, and the market has weak expectations for future supply and demand. The rebar futures 2510 contract closed at 2974 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.23% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 31,500 lots in positions [1]. - The iron ore market is predicted to show an oscillatory consolidation trend. The Australian iron ore shipments have increased significantly, while Brazilian shipments have declined from a high level. The global iron ore shipments have increased, and the iron ore futures i2509 contract closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 1,000 lots in positions [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to oscillate. For coking coal, some mines in the producing areas have stopped production, and the coke has been reduced in price three times, squeezing the profits of coking enterprises. The coking coal 2509 contract closed at 785 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 10,312 lots in positions. For coke, the inventory of coking enterprises has continued to accumulate, and the steel mills' procurement is cautious. The coke 2509 contract closed at 1349 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.75% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 255 lots in positions [1]. - The ferrosilicon - manganese market is likely to be in low - level oscillation. The weekly output of ferrosilicon - manganese has increased slightly for three consecutive weeks, and the supply, demand, and cost support are all insufficient. The ferrosilicon - manganese futures closed at 5542 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 5172 lots in positions to 436,200 lots [1]. - The ferrosilicon market is expected to oscillate. An Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon plant has stopped a 33000kva furnace, and the steel procurement is ongoing. The ferrosilicon futures closed at 5174 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 5651 lots in positions to 218,100 lots [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel Products**: The rebar futures showed a narrow - range oscillation, and the spot price was stable with a slight decline. The market has entered the consumption off - season, and the expected supply - demand situation is weak. The futures price of rebar 2510 contract was 2974 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the previous trading day, and the inventory decreased by 31,500 lots. The spot price in Tangshan was 2900 yuan/ton, and in Hangzhou it was 3060 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The national building materials trading volume was 99,800 tons [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures showed an oscillatory consolidation trend. The Australian shipments increased, while Brazilian shipments decreased. The iron ore futures i2509 contract closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from the previous trading day. The port spot prices decreased, and the 47 - port imported iron ore inventory and steel mills' imported ore inventory continued to decline [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures rose. Some mines in the producing areas stopped production, and the coke was reduced in price three times, squeezing the profits of coking enterprises. The coking coal 2509 contract closed at 785 yuan/ton, up 0.64% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 10,312 lots in positions. The spot price in Lvliang decreased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures rose. The downstream steel mills' procurement willingness was low, and the coking enterprises' inventory continued to accumulate. After three price cuts, the coking enterprises' losses increased, and some reduced production. The coke 2509 contract closed at 1349 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 255 lots in positions. The spot price in Rizhao Port increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Ferrosilicon - Manganese**: The ferrosilicon - manganese futures showed a narrow - range oscillation. The supply has increased slightly for three consecutive weeks, and the demand and cost support are limited. The ferrosilicon - manganese futures closed at 5542 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 5172 lots in positions to 436,200 lots. The market price of 6517 ferrosilicon - manganese was 5380 - 5540 yuan/ton, and the price in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures rose slightly. An Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon plant stopped a furnace, and the steel procurement is ongoing. The ferrosilicon futures closed at 5174 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 5651 lots in positions to 218,100 lots. The spot price in most regions decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides the latest and环比 data of contract spreads for various varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon - manganese, and ferrosilicon, including 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month spreads, etc [4]. - **Basis**: The latest and环比 data of basis for different varieties are given, like the basis of rebar 10 - contract, hot - rolled coils 10 - contract, etc [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The latest and环比 data of spot prices in different regions for each variety are presented, for example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou, and the spot price of iron ore PB powder and super - special powder [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: The latest and环比 data of profits (such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc) are provided [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1主力合约价格**: The report includes charts showing the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon - manganese, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][9][11][14]. - **3.3.2主力合约基差**: Charts display the basis of the main contracts of various varieties over different time periods, such as the basis of rebar RB2010 - RB2510, hot - rolled coils HC2010 - HC2510, etc [16][17][18]. - **3.3.3跨期合约价差**: The report presents charts of the spreads between different contracts of each variety, like the 10 - 01 and 01 - 05 spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coils, etc [24][25][27]. - **3.3.4跨品种合约价差**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties, including the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc [39][40][42]. - **3.3.5螺纹钢利润**: Charts display the disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of the rebar main contract from 2020 to 2025 [43][45][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - **邱跃成**: The assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, holding multiple industry honors [51]. - **张笑金**: The director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and has won many industry awards [51]. - **柳浠**: A black researcher at Everbright Futures, with a master's degree in science, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [51]. - **张春杰**: A black researcher at Everbright Futures, with experience in investment companies and spot - futures trading companies, having passed the CFA Level 2 exam [52].

Group 1: Research Views Steel - Yesterday, the rebar futures market showed a narrow - range fluctuation. The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 2981 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.2%) from the previous trading day, with a position reduction of 19,700 lots. Spot prices fluctuated slightly, and trading volume remained low. In May 2025, China's steel exports reached 10.578 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 116,000 tons (1.1%); from January to May, cumulative steel exports were 48.469 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. It is expected that the rebar futures market will mainly operate in a low - level consolidation in the short term [1]. Iron Ore - Yesterday, the main contract i2509 of iron ore futures showed a fluctuating and consolidating trend, closing at 703 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton (0.64%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 300,000 lots and a position reduction of 4,000 lots. In May, China imported 98.131 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates. From a supply - demand perspective, the global iron ore shipment volume increased, the blast furnace operating rate increased, but the molten iron output continued to decline. It is expected that the iron ore futures price will show a fluctuating and consolidating trend [1]. Coking Coal - Yesterday, the coking coal futures market rose. The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 780 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton (0.19%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 637 lots in open interest. The overall supply is still loose, and downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the coking coal futures market will fluctuate in the short term [1]. Coke - Yesterday, the coke futures market declined. The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1339 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan/ton (0.85%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 393 lots in open interest. After the third round of price cuts, the production losses of coke enterprises intensified, and there was a slight inventory build - up in coke enterprises. It is expected that the coke futures market will fluctuate in the short term [1]. Manganese Silicon - On Monday, the manganese silicon futures price showed a narrow - range fluctuation. The main contract was reported at 5552 yuan/ton, up 0.04% month - on - month, with a position reduction of 10,680 lots to 441,300 lots. The supply reduction has limited support for prices, and downstream demand is relatively weak. It is expected that the manganese silicon futures will mainly operate in a low - level fluctuation in the short term [3]. Ferrosilicon - On Monday, the ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5174 yuan/ton, up 0.58% month - on - month, with a position reduction of 3261 lots to 223,800 lots. Recently, the supply has increased significantly, while demand is still in need of improvement. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures will mainly operate in a low - level fluctuation in the short term [3]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as information on profits and price differences between different varieties [4]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents charts of the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][9][10][12][15]. 3.2 Main Contract Basis - Charts of the basis of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are provided, showing the basis data from different contract periods [17][18][21][23]. 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report shows charts of the spreads between different contracts (such as 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month) for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][29][31][33][34][37]. 3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads - Charts of the spreads between different varieties, including the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coke to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to coke, and the difference between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, are presented [39][41][43]. 3.5 Rebar Profits - Charts of the rebar main - contract disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 are provided [44][48]. Group 4: Black Research Team Members Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, with their respective positions, work experience, and professional qualifications introduced [50][51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures contract 2510 closed at 2959 yuan/ton, down 0.5%. Spot prices fell slightly, and trading volume declined. Rebar production continued to fall, inventory decline narrowed, and apparent demand dropped. Considering the one - day less workweek, the data was neutral. With the entry into the consumption off - season, the market has a weak expectation for future supply and demand. However, the phone call between the leaders of China and the US may ease trade - war sentiment and boost market risk appetite. Short - term rebar futures are expected to trade in a narrow range [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures contract i2509 closed at 701 yuan/ton, down 0.5%. Port spot prices were mixed. Australian shipments decreased from a high level, Brazilian shipments increased significantly, and shipments from non - mainstream countries rebounded from a low level. Iron ore shipments globally increased. Iron - making output continued to decline. With 47 - port and steel - mill imported ore inventories decreasing, the price is expected to trade sideways [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures contract 2509 closed at 757 yuan/ton, down 1.43%. Spot prices in some areas decreased. Some coal mines had signs of shutdown and production restrictions due to safety incidents, and there was a slight increase in procurement in the spot trading link, but some coal mines still had high inventories. The coke market has a downward expectation, and steel mills' demand for coking coal is weak. Short - term coking coal futures are expected to trade sideways [1]. - Coke: The coke futures contract 2509 closed at 1342 yuan/ton, down 1.86%. Port spot prices fell. Steel mills initiated the third round of price cuts for coke. After two rounds of price cuts, coking enterprises faced production losses, and production enthusiasm weakened. Steel - mill demand for coke decreased as steel production declined. Short - term coke futures are expected to trade sideways [1]. - Manganese Silicon: On Thursday, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated narrowly, with the main contract closing at 5482 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. The market price of 6517 manganese silicon was stable. The manganese silicon price was mainly affected by the overall black - commodity sector sentiment but lacked sustainable support. Terminal demand was weak, and supply reduction support was limited. It is expected to follow the black - commodity sector fluctuations [3]. - Ferrosilicon: On Thursday, the ferrosilicon futures price trended weaker, with the main contract closing at 5196 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. Spot prices were stable. Terminal demand was weak, market sentiment needed boosting, and cost support was weak. Although weekly production has dropped to a low level in recent years, it has not supported the price. It is expected to trade weakly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price declined, and so did spot prices and trading volume. Production, inventory, and apparent demand all showed a downward trend. Market sentiment was affected by the consumption off - season and international trade relations [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures price dropped, and port spot prices were mixed. Supply increased, demand decreased, and inventory declined. The price is expected to be range - bound [1]. - **Coking Coal**: Futures price fell, and some spot prices decreased. Supply was affected by safety incidents, and demand was weak due to the coke market's downward expectation [1]. - **Coke**: Futures price declined, and port spot prices dropped. Steel mills' price cuts and weakening demand from the steel sector led to a production slowdown in coking enterprises [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the market price was stable. It was mainly driven by sector sentiment, with weak terminal demand and limited supply - reduction support [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Futures price trended weaker, and spot prices were stable. Weak terminal demand, low market sentiment, and limited cost support led to a weak outlook [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: For various black commodities, contract spreads such as 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month showed different changes, including increases and decreases [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts for each commodity also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of different regions and varieties of black commodities changed, including price drops and stability [4]. - **Profit and Spreads**: The profit of different steel - making processes (such as rebar) and cross - commodity spreads (e.g., roll - rebar spread) showed various changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts showed the historical closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][11][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts presented the historical basis of main contracts for different black commodities [18][19][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts showed the historical spreads of different inter - period contracts for each black commodity [26][30][32][34][35][38]. - **Cross - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts displayed the historical spreads of cross - commodity contracts such as roll - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [40][41][42][44]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts showed the historical profits of rebar in different production processes (main - contract surface profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) [45][46][48]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: The assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin: The director of resource - product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of power coal research [52]. - Liu Xi: A black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial - chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie: A black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures trading [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to remain in a weak consolidation phase. The supply - demand fundamentals of rebar have not changed significantly, and the market still anticipates a weakening of supply - demand in the future [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to show a volatile and weakening trend. Although the futures price has risen, the supply has increased, and the iron - making output has declined, resulting in a situation of mixed long and short factors [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to fluctuate. For coking coal, there are signs of production suspension and restriction in some mines, while the demand side has a downward expectation; for coke, steel mills continue to propose price cuts, but there may be some support on the futures price [1]. - The manganese silicon and silicon iron markets are expected to follow the overall fluctuations of the black sector. Their price increases are mainly driven by market sentiment and cost support, and the supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve significantly in the short term [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price rebounded, with the 2510 contract closing at 2974 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 1.57%. Spot prices rose, and trading volume increased. This week, the national building materials production decreased by 3.83 tons to 421.93 tons, social inventory decreased by 14.84 tons to 550.47 tons, factory inventory decreased by 3.03 tons to 326.15 tons, and the apparent demand decreased by 0.89 tons to 439.8 tons. It is expected to be in a weak consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures price of the main contract i2509 rose to 704.5 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 1.3%. Port spot prices increased. Australian shipments declined from the high level, Brazilian shipments increased significantly, and non - mainstream country shipments rebounded from the low level. The blast furnace operating rate increased, but the molten iron output decreased to 241.91 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports and steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased by 122.25 tons and 171.15 tons respectively. It is expected to be volatile and weak [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price of the 2509 contract rose to 768 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton or 6.82%. The spot price of some coal types decreased. There are signs of production suspension and restriction in some mines, and the spot trading link has cooled down. The coke market has a downward expectation, and the demand for coking coal is weak. It is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Coke**: The futures price of the 2509 contract rose to 1367.5 yuan/ton, up 68.5 yuan/ton or 5.27%. The spot price of port coke increased. Steel mills continued to propose a third - round price cut of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, the downstream procurement enthusiasm declined, and some coking enterprises' inventory accumulated. It is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5502 yuan/ton, up 2.12%. The increase was driven by the overall strength of the black sector and the rise in coking coal prices, which boosted market sentiment and increased cost support. The production has begun to rebound week - on - week, and it is expected to follow the overall fluctuations of the black sector [1][3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5258 yuan/ton, up 1.19%. The rise was driven by the strength of the black sector and the increase in coking coal prices. The production continued to decline, but there are signs of复产 in some areas. It is expected to follow the overall fluctuations of the black sector [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar is 4.0, a decrease of 19.0; the 10 - 1 spread of hot - rolled coil is 7.0, unchanged; the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore is 38.5, an increase of 1.5, etc. [4]. - **Basis**: For example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar is 136.0, a decrease of 26.0; the basis of the 10 - contract of hot - rolled coil is 103.0, a decrease of 15.0; the basis of the 09 - contract of iron ore is 70.7, a decrease of 2.4, etc. [4]. - **Spot Price**: For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai is 3110.0, an increase of 20.0; the spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai is 3200.0, an increase of 30.0; the spot price of PB powder in Rizhao Port is 732.0, an increase of 6.0, etc. [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: For example, the rebar futures profit is 84.8, a decrease of 3.1; the long - process profit is 32.4, an increase of 9.2; the short - process profit is - 116.8, an increase of 30.0; the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 123.0, a decrease of 1.0, etc. [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report provides price trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][12][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The report provides basis trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides spread trend charts of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [25][29][31][33][34][37]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: The report provides spread trend charts of inter - variety contracts such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [39][40][41][43]. - **Rebar Profit**: The report provides profit trend charts of rebar, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [44][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and professional qualifications [51][52].

黑色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面延续跌势，再创新低，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 2928 元/吨，较上一交 易收盘价格下跌 33 元/吨，跌幅为 1.11%，持仓增加 0.18 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交维持低位，唐山 地区迁安普方坯价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2860 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 30 元/吨至 3040 元/吨，全 国建材成交量 9.45 万吨。据钢银数据，本周全国建材库存下降 3.11%至 390.59 万吨，热卷库存增加 0.22% 至 180.37 万吨，建材库存继续下降，热卷库存则有所累积。美国宣布将对进口钢材和铝材加征双倍关税， | 弱势整理 | | | 从现行的 25%翻倍，6 月 4 日起实施。钢材关税政策不断扰动，对市场情绪形成一定影响。而焦煤价格持 | | | | 续下跌，对钢材成本形成一定拖累。预计短期螺纹盘面仍弱势整理运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 铁矿石：昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2509 价格有所下跌，收于 ...