应尽早实现日本国债持有量的正常化。 日本的实际利率显著为负。 增强市场吸收冲击的功能至关重要。 日本央行审议委员田村直树：中性利率至少在1%左右。 正密切关注企业在价格和工资方面的行为。 ...

日本央行审议委员田村直树：我相信日本的中性利率至少在1%。 ...

智通财经6月25日电，日本央行审议委员田村直树称，相信日本的中性利率至少在1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current data supports maintaining interest rates at a "neutral level," but the economy is not at neutral rates due to inflation forecasts [1] Group 1 - Existing data is strong enough to justify the stance on interest rates [1] - The Federal Reserve is not currently at a neutral interest rate [1] - Inflation predictions are the primary reason for not being at neutral rates [1]

智通财经APP获悉，美国克利夫兰联储主席哈马克周二表示，当前的利率水平"仅具适度限制性"，美联 储可能会在一段时间内维持借贷成本不变。 尽管在6月的会议上公布的最新利率预测显示，美联储官员中位数预期今年将有两次降息，但观点存在 明显分歧，有7位官员预计全年不会降息。 经济韧性增强 维持利率不变风险较低 哈马克认为，美国经济展现出较强韧性，因此当前维持利率不变所面临的风险相对较小。她指出，目前 尚未看到足以促使降息的经济疲软迹象，但也"密切关注这一可能性"。 在美联储上次议息会议之后，其他官员也陆续表达了对未来政策调整时间表的不同看法。联储理事克里 斯托弗·沃勒以及监管副主席米歇尔·鲍曼(两位均为特朗普任命的官员)表示，如果通胀继续受控，最早 在7月就可能考虑降息。而旧金山联储主席戴利则认为，秋季降息的可能性更高。 鲍威尔强调耐心等待更多数据 哈马克在伦敦一场会议的预备发言中指出，尽管近期通胀已有所缓解，美联储距离实现其2%的通胀目 标仍"有一段路要走"。她还强调，目前的通胀数据具有滞后性，未必能准确反映当前经济的最新变化， 包括近期油价上涨所带来的通胀预期风险。 截至发稿，美联储主席鲍威尔正在出席众议院金融服 ...

欧洲央行管委卡兹米尔：我是认为我们在中性利率方面达到目标的委员之一。 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) retains the policy space to initiate interest rate cuts within the next six months, as stated by François Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the ECB Governing Council [1] - Current market assessments indicate that inflation expectations remain moderate, which could justify further easing of monetary conditions in the next six monetary policy cycles if this trend continues [1] - The significant appreciation of the euro against major currencies has provided a hedging effect against rising international oil prices [1] Group 2 - Villeroy distinguishes between neutral interest rates and terminal rates, explaining that while they may converge under certain conditions, they serve different functions within the policy framework [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is identified as a new major uncertainty, with potential for dual-directional volatility [1] - The ECB is closely monitoring international oil price trends, but emphasizes that oil price fluctuations alone are insufficient to trigger policy responses unless they affect core inflation and inflation expectations [1] Group 3 - Regarding potential changes in US-EU trade relations, Villeroy assesses that a substantial escalation in trade tensions could exert downward pressure on eurozone economic growth through suppressed cross-border trade channels [2] - However, this impact is not expected to directly translate into upward inflationary pressures, consistent with previous ECB research on the transmission mechanism of imported inflation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) may consider interest rate cuts despite fluctuations in oil prices, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy direction [1] Group 1 - The ECB's interest rates have returned to neutral levels, suggesting a balanced approach to monetary policy [1] - Neutral interest rates are not considered the terminal rates, implying that further adjustments may be possible in the future [1] - Oil prices are not seen as a sufficient indicator for the ECB to make policy changes, highlighting the bank's broader economic considerations [1]

Macro Strategy - The economic resilience in May is highlighted by a year-on-year industrial added value growth of 5.8% and a service production index growth of 6.2%, indicating a slight weakening in industrial supply and a slight strengthening in the service sector [1][18] - Retail sales increased by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing the previous month's growth by 1.3 percentage points, while fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1][18] - The report identifies three distinct economic narratives: (1) sectors supported by policy, such as infrastructure and durable goods consumption, (2) new productive forces with strong endogenous momentum, and (3) real estate and non-subsidized consumption, which are relatively weaker [1][18] Industry Insights - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating its 0-1 industrialization, with significant policy support and application advancements, including the establishment of a standard system for solid-state batteries by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [9][10] - Equipment manufacturers are expected to benefit from the ongoing optimization and iteration of solid-state battery production equipment, with companies like Xianlead Intelligent and Winbond Technology actively advancing their equipment layouts [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of self-research in baseband chips for major manufacturers, as it is crucial for brand influence and achieving competitive technological levels [12][13] Financial Products - The Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF (513750.SH) is noted for its strong liquidity and active trading, with a net subscription of 4.74 million units in Q1 2025, reflecting increasing market interest [11] - The ETF has demonstrated excellent performance with a cumulative return of 22.1% and an annualized return of 49.2%, positioning it favorably among non-bank financial products [11] Recommendations - The report recommends companies in the oil service equipment and gas turbine sectors to benefit from high oil prices, highlighting firms like Jereh and Neway as key players [14] - In the real estate sector, it suggests focusing on companies like China Resources Land and Poly Developments, which are expected to stabilize and recover in the current market environment [14] - The report also identifies opportunities in the gas industry, particularly for companies with strong long-term contracts and cost advantages, such as New Hope Energy and China Gas [15]

智通财经APP获悉，美联储官员普遍预计将在美东时间周三举行的利率决议上，连续第四次会议维持利 率不变，并重申在调整借贷成本前，需更清晰了解一系列政府政策调整对经济的影响。政策制定者此前 曾警告称，唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税可能推高通胀与失业率，但迄今为止，稳健的就业增长与通胀降 温让美联储官员今年得以维持利率不变。 德意志银行高级美国经济学家布雷特·瑞安表示："观望策略此前成效显著。如今既无迫切调整理由，通 胀前景仍存上行风险，为何要偏离这一策略?" 鉴于经济前景充满不确定性，投资者与经济学家将密切关注政策制定者更新的经济与利率预测。官员们 可能继续如多数预测所示，在今年计入两次降息，但部分经济学家称，"点阵图"可能仅显示一次降息。 美联储利率决议将于美东时间周三下午2点公布，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将在此后30分钟后召开新闻发布 会。 政策声明要点 预计官员们会将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.5%区间，且对5月6-7日会议后的声明仅做细微调整。鉴于5月 会议以来贸易紧张局势(尤其是中美贸易)有所缓和，政策制定者可能微调关于经济前景不确定性的表 述。 瑞安及其团队在客户报告中指出，官员们可能不再称不确定性"进一步加剧 ...