Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report title: "Bottom Range, Oscillating with an Upward Bias - Guosen Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" [2][3] - Report date: October 12, 2025 [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The US Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes suggest that most participants believe further monetary policy easing is appropriate this year, and the market expects two more interest rate cuts. In China, the manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, showing continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [36]. - The Shanghai nickel market showed an oscillating trend this week with no obvious trend. Refined nickel demand remains weak. Nickel ore circulation in the coastal areas of the Philippines has slowed due to weather, while the nickel ore market in Indonesia has a relatively loose supply. The high - frequency data of nickel sulfate shows a recent price rebound, but whether it can change the weak situation in the medium term remains to be seen. In the stainless - steel market, steel mills are cautious in raw material procurement, terminal demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 118,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,200 to 13,300 yuan/ton [36]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This part presents the historical price trends of domestic and foreign main nickel futures contracts, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [7][8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream: China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - The report shows the historical data of China's nickel ore port inventory, but no specific analysis is provided [12][13]. 2.2 Mid - stream: Electrolytic Nickel Price - The historical price data of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) are presented, without specific analysis [14][15]. 2.3 Mid - stream: Nickel Sulfate Price - The historical average price data of nickel sulfate in China are shown, without specific analysis [16][17]. 2.4 Mid - stream: Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - The historical monthly import volume data of ferronickel in China and the Fubao price data of 8 - 12% ferronickel are presented, without specific analysis [18][19]. 2.5 Downstream: Stainless - Steel Market - Stainless - steel price: The historical closing price data of stainless - steel futures are shown, without specific analysis [20][21]. - Stainless - steel futures positions: The historical position data of stainless - steel futures are presented, without specific analysis [22][23]. - Wuxi stainless - steel inventory: The historical inventory data of Wuxi stainless - steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless - steel are shown, without specific analysis [25][26]. 2.6 Downstream: Production of Power and Energy - Storage Batteries - The historical monthly production data of China's power and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and total production data are presented, without specific analysis [28][29]. 2.7 Downstream: New - Energy Vehicle Production - The historical monthly production data of China's new - energy vehicles are shown, without specific analysis [30][31]. 3. Future Outlook - In the US, inflation data is in line with expectations, employment data is lower than expected, and the market expects two more interest rate cuts this year. In China, the manufacturing PMI continues to improve, indicating a consolidation of the economic recovery momentum in the third quarter [36]. - The Shanghai nickel market is oscillating, refined nickel demand is weak, the supply situation of upstream nickel ore varies, the nickel sulfate price has rebounded recently, and the stainless - steel market has weak demand and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating ranges of the Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel main contracts are given [36].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25% last month to address a slowdown in hiring and rising inflation, which continues to pressure low- and middle-income families [3] - Inflation has not returned to pre-pandemic levels, and the trade policies initiated by former President Trump have contributed to rising prices [3][6] - The Fed's decision-making is complicated by differing opinions among officials regarding the temporary nature of tariff-induced inflation [3][6] Group 2 - The Fed has maintained interest rates for nine months to assess the impact of Trump's tariffs on the economy, while also facing pressures in the labor market [3][6] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need to balance inflation control with the goal of full employment, indicating that there is no risk-free path forward [3][6] - Economic forecasts suggest that the Fed may lower borrowing costs two more times by the end of the year to prevent a spike in unemployment [6][7] Group 3 - Recent labor department data shows sluggish job growth, with rising unemployment rates among young people and minorities, and the number of job seekers exceeding available positions [7] - The government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, complicating the Fed's decision-making process regarding employment and inflation [7] - Market expectations indicate a likely interest rate cut of 0.25% during the upcoming policy meeting on October 28-29 [7] Group 4 - The inflation rate has increased by approximately 20% since January 2021, leading low-income families to cut spending or opt for cheaper alternatives [8] - There is a growing economic divide, with high-income consumers maintaining stable sentiment while low-income consumers face significant challenges [8] - The housing market remains under pressure due to insufficient supply, high prices, and rising mortgage rates, impacting affordability for potential buyers [8][9] Group 5 - Former President Trump has exerted pressure on the Fed, including attempts to influence leadership changes and policy direction, which raises concerns about the Fed's independence [9] - The ongoing economic uncertainty and data interruptions present challenges for the Fed in managing inflation and unemployment effectively [9]

Core Insights - Croatia's labor costs have experienced explosive growth in recent years, with administrative expenses causing labor costs to exceed productivity levels [1] - Since 2019, the minimum wage has increased by 92%, and labor costs have risen by 61.6%, which is 2.5 times the EU average increase [1] - The public sector wage budget has grown by 58% over two years, with the gap between public sector average wages and the average wages in the real economy reaching a historical high of 32.3% [1] Labor Market Comparison - The Croatian Labor Minister compared wage levels between Croatia and Slovenia, noting that in 2016, Croatia's minimum wage was 50% of Slovenia's, but it has now risen to 75% [1] - In terms of average wages, Croatia's wages have increased from 72% of Slovenia's average to 90% [1] - Croatia's unemployment rate is currently at a historical low, indicating a tight labor market [1] Government Objectives - The Croatian government aims to continue increasing the minimum wage in line with average and median wages through social dialogue, encouraging economic development, and implementing measures to reduce labor costs [1]

每经AI快讯，10月10日消息，加拿大9月失业率为7.1%，预期7.2%，前值7.1%。 ...

Group 1 - The unemployment rate in the Philippines decreased to 3.9% in August, down 1.4 percentage points from July and 0.1 percentage points from the same month last year [1] - The labor force participation rate rose to 65.1% in August, higher than 60.7% in July and 64.8% a year ago, indicating increased activity in the labor market [1] - The number of unemployed individuals fell to 2.03 million in August, a decrease of 560,000 from the previous month and 40,000 from the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The services sector employed the most individuals, with 30.81 million jobs in August, accounting for 61.5% of total employment; agriculture and industry accounted for 20.4% and 18.1%, respectively [1] - Employment in agriculture, forestry, construction, and fisheries showed significant growth both year-on-year and month-on-month [1] - The underemployment rate improved to 10.7% in August, down from 14.8% in July and 11.2% a year ago, indicating better job quality [1] Group 3 - The youth unemployment rate for individuals aged 15 to 24 dropped to 11.7% in August, a decrease of 6.4 percentage points from July and lower than the 12.0% recorded last year [1]

每经AI快讯，10月6日消息，瑞士9月季调后失业率为3%，预期2.9%，前值2.9%。 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of the September non-farm payroll report, raising concerns on the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path [1][6][7] - As of October 4, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 5.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 94.6% [1] - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson indicated that the dual challenges of a cooling labor market and rising inflation pressures complicate the monetary policy outlook [1][4] Group 2: Labor Market Insights - Jefferson noted a significant slowdown in both labor supply and demand, with an average monthly job increase of only 29,000 over the past three months, which could lead to upward pressure on the unemployment rate [4][5] - The estimated unemployment rate for September is projected to be 4.3%, reflecting a softening labor market [1][6] Group 3: Federal Reserve Independence - The U.S. Supreme Court denied President Trump's attempt to immediately remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, allowing her to continue in her role [2][8][9] - This ruling is seen as a reinforcement of the Federal Reserve's independence, which is crucial for maintaining economic stability [9]

Core Insights - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for September has not been released due to the government shutdown, with Labor Secretary Chavez-Deremer indicating it will be published once the government reopens [1] - The Chicago Fed President Goolsbee estimates the unemployment rate for September to be around 4.3%, noting that the labor market remains stable despite concerns about inflation and employment [1] - Goldman Sachs reports a slight increase in initial jobless claims, with approximately 224,000 claims for the week ending September 27, up from 218,000 in the previous report [1] Employment Data - The September non-farm employment data is pending publication due to the government shutdown, which has also affected the release of initial jobless claims [1] - Goldman Sachs' analysis indicates that the number of initial jobless claims rose slightly, while the number of continuing claims decreased from 1.93 million to 1.91 million [1] Market Reactions - U.S. stock futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 erased earlier gains in response to the delay in the employment report [1] - Spot gold prices increased, reaching $3,880 per ounce, reflecting a 0.62% daily gain [1]

Core Points - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for September has not been released due to the government shutdown, with Labor Secretary Chavez-Deremer stating it will be published once the government reopens [1] - The Chicago Fed President Goolsbee estimates the unemployment rate for September to be around 4.3%, indicating a stable labor market, but expresses caution regarding significant interest rate cuts [1] - Goldman Sachs reports a slight increase in initial jobless claims, with approximately 224,000 claims for the week ending September 27, up from 218,000 in the previous report [1] Employment Data - The September non-farm employment data is pending publication due to the government shutdown, with implications for market activity [1] - Initial jobless claims have risen slightly, indicating potential shifts in the labor market [1][2] - Continuous claims for unemployment benefits decreased from 1.93 million to 1.91 million, suggesting some stability in ongoing employment [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chicago Fed estimates the unemployment rate for September to be 4.3%, indicating a stable labor market according to Federal Reserve data [1]