Market Analysis - China's GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year-on-year, higher than the annual target of 5%, with fiscal efforts and "rush exports" supporting the economic data, but policy urgency has decreased [2] - China's exports in June were strong, and a new round of "rush exports" supported demand under the easing of Sino-US tariffs; the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales in June slowed to 4.8%, mainly due to the suspension of subsidies in some regions, and subsequent policy subsidies are expected to support domestic consumption [2] - In terms of investment, infrastructure and manufacturing investment declined significantly, and overall fixed investment weakened. There is still a risk of the weak real estate sales dragging down the entire real estate chain [2] - On July 29, the A-share market strengthened throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. Most stocks fell, and the trading volume was nearly 1830 billion yuan. Among commodity futures, the main glass contract fell more than 7%, coking coal fell more than 6%, and lithium carbonate fell more than 5% [2] Anti-Involution Progress Tracking - Since July, relevant departments have emphasized the governance of low-price and disorderly competition among enterprises. Policy expectations for "anti-involution" in industries such as steel, photovoltaic, lithium battery, and new energy vehicles have increased, and the prices of some commodities have rebounded [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, are about to be introduced, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [3] - Multiple departments have notified the assessment of old equipment in the petrochemical and chemical industries, focusing on corresponding chemical products [3] Impact of "Reciprocal Tariffs" - Trump signed the "Great America" tax and spending bill, marking a shift in US policy from "tight fiscal expectations + neutral monetary policy" in the first half of the year to a stage of "easy to loosen, difficult to tighten" [4] - The 2.0 stage of reciprocal tariffs has officially begun, with 4 batches of tariff letters sent to 25 countries so far. The UK is pushing for an agreement in the steel sector, and the US has reached agreements with Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the EU to reduce reciprocal tariffs [4] - The EU plans to purchase AI chips worth 40 billion euros in the US-EU trade agreement. Japan has lowered its export assessment for the first time in a year, citing the impact of US trade policies [4] - The auction of 5-year US Treasury bonds was unexpectedly weak, and overseas demand hit a three-year low. The US Treasury expects to borrow more than 1 trillion US dollars in the third quarter [4] Commodity Sector Focus - Domestically, the black and new energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply side. Overseas, the energy and non-ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [5] - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the supply shortage in the non-ferrous sector remains unresolved. In the energy sector, the short-term geopolitical premium has ended, and the medium-term supply is expected to be relatively loose [5] - Trump urged the UK to reduce taxes on the fossil fuel industry and increase North Sea oil production. OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected [5] - In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" space of varieties such as methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worth noting. There is no short-term weather disturbance in agricultural products, and the fluctuation range is relatively limited [5] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, go long on industrial products on dips [6] Key News - The A-share market strengthened throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. Most stocks fell, and nearly 3000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closed lower. The trading volume was nearly 1830 billion yuan. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.86% [7] - Most US chip stocks rose before the market, with NVIDIA rising more than 1%. The EU plans to purchase AI chips worth 40 billion euros in the US-EU trade agreement [7] - Japan lowered its monthly export assessment for the first time in a year, partly due to the weakening of export demand to avoid US tariffs. Japan also adjusted its description of the overall economic situation, saying that the economy is recovering at a moderate pace [7] - The US Treasury auctioned 69 billion US dollars of two-year Treasury bonds, with a winning bid rate of 3.920% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.62 [7] - The US Treasury expects to borrow 1.01 trillion US dollars from July to September, higher than the previous forecast of 554 billion US dollars, mainly due to the impact of the debt ceiling [7] - Trump expressed disappointment with Russia's attitude towards the Ukraine war. WTI crude oil futures rose more than 2%, and among rare earth concept stocks, NioCorp Developments Ltd. fell 5.1%, Ucore UCORE RARE METALS fell 1.5%, Energy Fuels rose 0.6%, and MP Materials rose 0.2% [7] - The ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia officially took effect at 24:00 on July 28 [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that President Trump's approval rating has dropped to 40%, marking a new low during his second term, with concerns from the public regarding his handling of economic and immigration policies [1][6]. - The poll conducted over three days surveyed 1,023 adults across the U.S., with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, revealing a significant polarization in public opinion towards Trump [4]. - Compared to a previous poll conducted in mid-July, Trump's approval rating for economic management increased from 35% to 38%, while his immigration approval rose from 41% to 43% [5]. Group 2 - Trump's administration has adopted aggressive strategies in both economic and immigration policies, which have led to mixed evaluations from the public [5][6]. - The article highlights Trump's trade policy, including the implementation of a 10% minimum baseline tariff and the potential for higher tariffs on imports if negotiations fail, which introduces significant uncertainty into the U.S. economy [5]. - Since January, Trump's overall approval rating has declined by approximately 12 percentage points, from 56% to 44%, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with his second term [6].

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index ended a six-day winning streak, while European stocks rose [1] - Novo Nordisk's stock dropped by 28% after the appointment of a new CEO and a downward revision of its annual guidance, with sales of the weight-loss drug Wegovy falling short of expectations [1] - Crude oil prices surged over 3%, with a peak increase of more than 4% during intraday trading [1] Group 2 - The U.S.-China trade talks are ongoing in Stockholm, with both sides aiming to extend the paused 24% tariffs and corresponding countermeasures for an additional 90 days [1] - The U.S. Commerce Secretary indicated that there is still much "bargaining" to be done with the EU, focusing on digital services tax and steel and aluminum tariffs [1] - The IMF has slightly raised its global economic growth forecast, along with improved economic outlooks for both the U.S. and China [1]

Core Points - The trade negotiations between the US and India are facing significant delays, with no agreement likely before the August 1 deadline [1][4] - The US Trade Representative emphasized the need for more discussions to assess India's willingness to lower trade barriers and open markets [1][3] - India's trade policy has historically focused on protecting domestic markets, which poses challenges for reaching a trade agreement [1][4] Group 1: Trade Negotiation Status - The US negotiating team is scheduled to visit India in August for further discussions on a proposed bilateral trade agreement [3] - The US has previously imposed high tariffs on Indian goods, with a 26% tariff announced by President Trump, which was initially suspended for 90 days [3] - Despite optimistic statements from Indian officials, insiders suggest that reaching an agreement before the deadline is highly unlikely [4] Group 2: Key Trade Issues - The US aims to secure greater market access for its agricultural products, dairy, and poultry in India, where tariffs on soybeans can reach 56% and poultry tariffs are nearly 100% [4][5] - India is resistant to increasing US agricultural imports due to concerns over the impact on its farmers, who constitute about 42% of the population [5] - India is seeking to eliminate a 26% additional tariff and reduce tariffs on steel (50%) and automobiles (25%) as part of the negotiations [5] Group 3: Competitive Tariff Levels - India is looking for competitive tariff levels that are lower than those of other Asian countries, potentially similar to the recent trade agreement between the US and Japan [5] - The US has recently reduced tariffs on Japan from 25% to 15%, setting a precedent that India may seek to leverage in negotiations [5]

标普500终结六连涨；欧股上涨，诺和诺德财报后一度跌28%；原油大涨逾3%；双焦夜盘大涨。 中美经贸会谈在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行，双方将继续推动已暂停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方 反制措施如期展期90天。 美国法院周四开启口头辩论，"对等关税"面临"取消风险"。 美国商务部长：和欧盟还有很多"讨价还价"，数字服务税和钢铝将是谈判重点。 特朗普给俄罗斯达成俄乌协议设新的最后期限，从50天减至10天，警告对俄征关税，原油盘中涨 超4%。 美国7月消费者信心回升，6月份职位空缺数则扭转前两个月升势。 IMF小幅上调全球经济增长预期，上调中美经济展望。 国家邮政局召开快递企业座谈会，提到积极推动解决"内卷式"竞争。 欧股诺和诺德暴跌，任命新CEO并下调全年指引，减肥药Wegovy销售不及预期。 提醒：美联储北京时间周四凌晨将公布利率决定，预期为按兵不动，两位理事可能投下反对票。 ...

华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 市场等待美联储利率决议和美国大型科技公司密集财报，投资者对美股高估值的担忧盖过了贸易消息的利好，三大美股指收跌，标普终结六连涨，美债和美 元齐涨。UPS跌超10%，公司仍未发布年度预测。联合健康公布失望盈利预测，股价下跌7.5%、拖累道指。诺和诺德财报后暴跌超20%。 由于7年期美债标售强劲，周二美债收益率普跌，10年期收益率大跌近9基点。美元震荡收涨0.3%。比特币倒V反转，曾重回11.9万美元，此后下跌。 特朗普确定对俄罗斯最后通牒新期限，原油大涨超3%，美油一度重回70美元关口。内盘期货夜市几乎全线上涨，焦煤夜盘收涨将近7%，焦炭涨超5.9%。 亚洲时段，创业板突破2400点，医药股爆发，国债大跌，焦煤跌超6%，港股午后回升，泡泡玛特涨近6%。 要闻 中美将继续推动美方已暂停的对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期90天。 美国法院周四开启口头辩论，"对等关税"面临"取消风险"。 美股芯片股盘前普涨，欧盟或在美欧贸易协议中采购400亿欧元AI芯片。美商务部长：和欧盟还有很多"讨价还价"，数字服务税和钢铝将是谈判 重点。 ...

【环球时报综合报道】在美国拟于8月1日起对韩国商品加征25%所谓"对等关税"前夕，韩国政府加紧推 进最后阶段谈判。多家韩媒29日报道，韩国经济副总理兼企划财政部长官具润哲当天启程赴美，计划于 当地时间7月31日在华盛顿与美国财政部长贝森特举行会谈，争取在最后时限前寻求关税减免方案。 韩国产业通商资源部长官金正官、通商交涉本部长吕翰九已于上周先后在华盛顿和纽约与美方官员举行 会谈，随后更是飞赴美国总统特朗普正在访问的苏格兰，与随行的美国贸易谈判核心人士继续磋商。美 国商务部长卢特尼克对此说道："想想他们有多么渴望达成协议。" 韩国政府之所以持续加快节奏，一方面是因谈判时间所剩不多，另一方面则是日本和欧盟已率先与美方 达成关税协议。两大竞争对手目前均获得了将"对等关税"和汽车关税降至15%的待遇。若韩美谈判未能 达成协议，从8月起，韩国产汽车将继续面临高达25%的美方进口关税，这将对韩国产品在美出口竞争 力造成直接冲击。 韩媒普遍认为，具润哲与贝森特的会谈将成为韩美关税磋商进程中的关键一环。（黎枳银） 具润哲在仁川机场接受韩媒采访时表示，将充分说明韩方正在准备的合作方案及国内产业情况，并就包 括造船业在内的韩美中 ...

Group 1 - The US and EU trade negotiations are ongoing, with key areas such as digital services tax and steel and aluminum trade still requiring extensive discussions [1][2] - A preliminary framework agreement was reached, where the US will impose a 15% tariff on EU products, and the EU will increase investments in the US by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of US energy [1][3] - The pharmaceutical and automotive industries are identified as critical sectors for the trade agreement, with significant tariffs expected on non-US produced pharmaceuticals [3] Group 2 - The EU is pushing for a quota system on metal exports to reduce the 50% tariffs currently imposed by the US on specific EU metal products [2] - A non-legally binding joint statement is sought by August 1 to clarify parts of the agreement, which will lead to the US beginning to lower tariffs on certain EU industries [3] - There is skepticism in the market regarding the EU's ability to fulfill its commitment to purchase $750 billion worth of US energy within three years, given that last year's imports were less than $80 billion [5] Group 3 - The US aims to finalize all equivalent tariffs by August 1, with different timelines for negotiations with China [6]

美国商务部长卢特尼克的最新表态显示，美欧贸易协议谈判尚未结束，在欧美达成初步的框架协议后， 在一些关键领域仍需大量协商。数字服务税、钢铝贸易等多个议题仍待解决。 卢特尼克在接受媒体采访时直言不讳地表示："还有很多讨价还价的工作要做。" 他预计，将继续与欧 盟贸易官员保持沟通，探讨数字服务税等问题。卢特尼克说： "我预计会继续与欧盟委员会的贸易官员沟通吗？是的，他们今天早上打电话给我，讨论还有什么其他 事情要谈，比如数字服务、税收以及针对我们（美国）科技公司的攻击——这些都会摆到桌面上来讨 论。" 此外，卢特尼克表示，欧盟方面希望将钢铁和铝纳入讨论范围。这些产品目前不在协议覆盖范围内。 本周二，另一媒体称，一位欧盟官员透露，欧盟正在推动建立针对出口金属产品的配额制度，从而降低 美国对特定进口特定数量欧盟金属产品的关税。目前欧盟金属出口面临50%的高关税。 制药与汽车产业是协议关键 卢特尼克在采访中指出，制药和汽车产业是与欧盟达成贸易协议的关键领域。"欧洲人之所以达成协 议，关键在于汽车和制药，"他解释道。 关于制药行业，卢特尼克表示，特朗普政府将在未来两周公布制药方面的关税政策，对非美国生产的药 品征收"巨额" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the US-EU trade negotiations are ongoing, with significant issues such as digital services tax and steel and aluminum trade still needing resolution [1][2] - US Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, emphasized that there is still much negotiation to be done, particularly regarding the digital services tax and the inclusion of steel and aluminum in the discussions [2][3] - The pharmaceutical and automotive industries are identified as key areas for the trade agreement, with the US planning to impose substantial tariffs on non-US produced pharmaceuticals [3][4] Group 2 - A non-binding joint statement is sought by August 1 to clarify parts of the agreement reached, which would lead to the US beginning to lower tariffs on specific EU industries [3][4] - The EU's commitment to purchase $750 billion worth of US energy over three years is met with skepticism, as last year's imports were less than $80 billion [4] - The deadline of August 1 is set for establishing all equivalent tariffs globally, with different timelines for negotiations with China [5]