智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发表研报表示，自4月2日美国宣布对等关税后，尽管日元对美元小幅升值，但对 其他G10货币普遍走弱，名义有效汇率(NEER)呈现下降趋势。这一现象的背后，是市场对日元多头头寸的逐步 平仓，以及多重经济与政治因素的共同作用。 报告指出，推动日元多头平仓的因素包括：全球股市上涨改善风险情绪、市场对日本央行加息的预期降温、日 本国内政治不确定性引发财政担忧、美日货币协议预期减弱以及日本"去美元化"进程停滞。其中，4月22日特朗 普表态不打算解雇美联储主席鲍威尔并暗示对中国立场软化后，全球股市反弹，标普500指数和东证指数均回 升至关税前水平，而4月下旬至6月下旬期间，股市上涨与日元贬值呈现相关性。 对于日元走势，摩根大通分析认为，上述因素对日元汇率的影响喜忧参半，整体影响有限，日元大幅升值的可 能性较低，多头头寸将继续逐步平仓。这是因为在日元未显著升值的情况下，投资者缺乏维持负收益日元多头 头寸的强烈动机。不过，即便所有国际货币市场(IMM)日元多头头寸平仓，日元名义有效汇率跌幅也相对有 限，预计在-1.6%至-1.4%之间。 | explanatory | C | IMM | TPX | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent tariff increases announced by President Trump on imports from Mexico and Canada, citing drug control issues as the primary reason, while also indicating that the actual impact on trade may be limited due to existing trade agreements [1][6]. Group 1: Tariff Increases - On August 1, a 30% tariff will be imposed on goods imported from Mexico, and a 35% tariff on goods from Canada [1]. - The tariffs are justified by Trump's claims of insufficient action by both countries in controlling drug trafficking, particularly fentanyl [1][6]. - The increase in tariffs is seen as a strategy to pressure Canada and Mexico into further concessions during ongoing trade negotiations [3][12]. Group 2: Trade Relations and Agreements - The USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) provides exemptions for many products, which may limit the actual impact of the new tariffs [4][13]. - Most goods imported from Canada and Mexico currently enjoy low average tariff rates, often below 1% [4]. - The article notes that the trade relationship is heavily interdependent, with Canada and Mexico relying significantly on the US market for exports [12]. Group 3: Economic Implications - If comprehensive tariffs are applied, it could raise US prices by approximately 1.2%, affecting consumer goods and potentially leading to public dissatisfaction [5]. - The tariffs may also influence the automotive industry by increasing local sourcing requirements, although evidence of effective re-industrialization through tariffs is lacking [7]. - The potential for retaliatory tariffs from Canada and Mexico exists, but both countries seem inclined to negotiate rather than escalate tensions [10][12].

海外宏观周报 美国贸易政策风险再升 证券分析师 | 张璐 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060522100001 | | | ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn | 范城恺 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523010001 FANCHENGKAI146@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： 海外宏观 2025 年 7 月 14 日 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 海外经济政策。1）美国：政策方面，特朗普宣布一系列关税政策：7月 7日，特朗普签署行政令，将"对等关税"暂缓日期由 7月9日推迟至8 月 1 日，同日宣布对来自日本和韩国等 14 个国家的进口产品征收 25% 至 40%不等的关税；7 月 9 日，特朗普宣布对来自巴西和菲律宾等 8个 国家的进口产品征收 20%至 50%不等的关税，同日宣布将对所有进口到 美国的铜征收 50%的关税；7月10日，特朗普宣布将对加拿大商品加征 35%关税。美联储公布 6 月会议纪要显示，官员们在何时恢复降息的问 题上有分歧，大多数美联储官员预计今年晚些时候将恢复降息。美联储 理事沃勒表示，可以考虑 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming "U.S. National Day" event at the Osaka Expo on July 19 will be attended by U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen, marking her first visit to Japan since taking office and the first since the U.S.-Japan trade negotiations began in April [1] - Japan is seeking to discuss tariff issues with Yellen during her visit, as reported by Japanese government sources, although U.S. officials indicate that the visit will primarily focus on the expo without formal bilateral talks [1][5] - Japan's optimism regarding the trade negotiations has diminished as the U.S. has rejected Japan's requests to withdraw the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" and has pressured Japan to increase imports of U.S. goods [5][8] Group 2 - The U.S. plans to raise the "reciprocal tariff" rate on Japan to 25% starting August 1, which is higher than the previously announced 24% [11][14] - This increase in tariffs has caused significant concern within Japan, especially with the upcoming Senate elections, as it may negatively impact the ruling party's chances [21][22] - The Japanese government is under pressure to negotiate effectively with the U.S. to protect national interests, with opposition leaders criticizing the government's handling of the negotiations [22][23] Group 3 - Japan's perception of its special relationship with the U.S. has been shaken by the recent tariff announcements, leading to feelings of betrayal among Japanese officials [24][26] - There are calls within Japan for a shift towards greater economic independence and collaboration with other countries to mitigate reliance on the U.S. [28]

Market Review - The domestic market shows a clear "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with rising market risk appetite driven by the ongoing "anti-involution" trend and expectations from important real estate meetings, leading to an increase in stock and commodity markets while the bond market remains under pressure. Major A-share indices saw a broad increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points, led by real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors. The banking index reached a historical high on Thursday but adjusted on Friday [1][2]. Market Outlook - The "stabilizing fund" is seen as a stabilizer for A-shares, with three main lines expected to perform well. The Shanghai Composite Index has reached 3500 points for the first time this year, with large financials, "anti-involution," and technology themes showing alternating upward trends. The proportion of financing funds and northbound trading funds in the market has significantly increased, reflecting a recovery in market risk appetite driven by profit-making effects. Unlike the previous "924" rally, the current A-share market valuation has risen from the bottom to above the historical median, indicating that further index gains will require volume support, and short-term market consolidation may be needed. However, the policy support for capital markets remains strong, and the influx of medium- to long-term funds like the "stabilizing fund" suggests limited downside even if the market experiences pullbacks, presenting numerous structural opportunities in a "stable yet rising" environment [2][3]. Industry Allocation - Focus on three main lines for industry allocation: 1) In a low-interest-rate environment, stable dividend assets will continue to be an important direction for medium- to long-term fund allocation 2) Beneficiaries of price increases in related resource sectors, such as minor metals and industrial metals 3) New technology and growth sectors, including military industry, marine economy, AI computing power, and solid-state batteries [2][3].

Group 1 - The core message of the news highlights the announcement by U.S. President Trump on July 12, stating that a 30% tariff will be imposed on goods imported from Mexico and the EU starting August 1, which has raised concerns in the market [3][4]. - The market reaction to the tariff announcement has been relatively calm, with analysts suggesting that Trump's threats are more of a negotiation tactic rather than a firm policy intention [4]. - The A-share market is currently experiencing a surge, driven by strong mid-year earnings reports from companies like Industrial Fulian and WuXi AppTec, which have positively influenced related sectors [4][5]. Group 2 - The EU has responded to the tariff announcement, indicating that such measures would harm transatlantic interests and expressing readiness to take reciprocal actions if necessary [3]. - Mexican President Sheinbaum expressed optimism about reaching an agreement with the U.S. before the tariff implementation date [3]. - Analysts believe that the demand for rare earths, primarily driven by the electric vehicle sector, remains stable, and recent price increases are more influenced by supply-side factors rather than a significant change in demand [5]. Group 3 - The brokerage and silver sectors are viewed positively by market experts, with expectations of continued strong performance due to favorable market conditions and increased trading activity [6]. - Guolian Minsheng Securities has projected a net profit of 1.129 billion yuan for the first half of the year, marking a significant increase compared to the previous year [6]. - Silver prices have shown an upward trend, with analysts predicting that silver may outperform gold in the latter half of the year due to its relatively low price levels [6].

Group 1 - Australian Prime Minister Albanese is set to visit China from July 12 to 18, aiming to strengthen bilateral relations with Australia's largest trading partner [1][3] - The visit will include a 14-member business delegation from major companies such as Macquarie Group and Rio Tinto, indicating a focus on expanding economic ties [3] - China is willing to enhance cooperation in traditional sectors like agriculture and mining, while also exploring new areas such as AI, healthcare, and green energy [3] Group 2 - German Chancellor Merz is also planning a visit to China later this year, accompanied by a delegation of top corporate executives, to stabilize relations with China amid rising tensions [5] - The German government aims to deepen economic cooperation with China to mitigate the negative impacts of the trade tensions initiated by the Trump administration [5] - The U.S. government plans to prohibit foreign entities, including Chinese investors, from purchasing American farmland, citing national security concerns [5][7]

Group 1: Trade Tariffs and Agreements - The U.S. President Trump announced a range of tariffs from 25% to 40% on imports from several countries, including significant rates for Southeast Asian nations like 20% for the Philippines and 40% for Myanmar [1] - The trade agreement with Vietnam contrasts sharply with the tariffs imposed on other countries, highlighting a disparity in U.S. trade policy [2][25] - Vietnam's response to U.S. tariffs included a commitment to zero tariffs on U.S. imports and significant purchases of U.S. goods, indicating a strategic compromise under pressure [9][15] Group 2: Vietnam's Strategic Considerations - Vietnam's negotiations reflect a balancing act between U.S. and Chinese influences, as it relies heavily on both for exports and imports [10] - The country faces competition from other developing nations, necessitating a favorable tariff rate to maintain its position as a manufacturing hub [12] - Vietnam's domestic reforms are crucial for maintaining economic growth, especially in light of potential tariff impacts on its economy [14] Group 3: Short-term Gains vs. Long-term Risks - The trade agreement may provide short-term benefits by reducing tariffs from 46% to 20%, enhancing Vietnam's competitiveness in the U.S. market [15][16] - However, the long-term implications include potential over-reliance on U.S. markets and the risk of domestic industries being overwhelmed by American competition [21][22] - Vietnam's early concessions could undermine regional solidarity within ASEAN, affecting its standing and influence among Southeast Asian nations [22][23] Group 4: Broader Implications of U.S. Trade Policy - Other countries may not follow Vietnam's lead in compromising with the U.S. due to lower dependency on the American market, allowing them more negotiating leverage [26] - Growing dissatisfaction with U.S. trade tactics could push countries towards alternative partnerships, indicating a shift in global trade dynamics [27] - The Vietnam-U.S. trade agreement may not serve as a model for other nations, as the unique circumstances surrounding Vietnam's negotiations differ significantly from those of its neighbors [24]

Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - Gold is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations, while copper and oil are anticipated to trend upwards [1][12] - The recent announcement of tariffs has led to a significant increase in copper prices, while concerns over supply have caused London copper prices to weaken [12] Group 2: Consumption Trends - New home sales have seen an expanded decline, while used car sales have slightly narrowed their drop; overall, the housing market is showing signs of cooling [2][3] - Service consumption during the summer has been robust, with increased foot traffic in commercial areas and rising hotel room rates [3] Group 3: Foreign Trade Developments - The extension of reciprocal tariffs has been announced, with potential tariffs of 15-20% on most economies [4][5] - Export activity may experience a slight downturn, with a decrease in shipping weight growth to the U.S. [7] Group 4: Production Insights - Production continues to exhibit seasonal characteristics, with high temperatures potentially improving electricity generation [8][10] - Steel production is declining due to increased maintenance schedules, while cement production is also down due to adverse weather conditions [9] Group 5: Price Movements - Domestic pork wholesale prices have risen for two consecutive weeks, while prices for rebar and thermal coal continue to increase [11] - The overall trend in commodity prices has shown a decline, with fluctuations in various sectors [11][12]

Market Overview - US stock market opened lower on July 11, but later showed signs of recovery with major indices narrowing their losses [1] - Gold and Bitcoin prices surged, with gold rising over 1% to exceed $3360 per ounce and silver increasing by more than 3% [3] Cryptocurrency Sector - Cryptocurrency stocks saw significant gains, with Bit Origin rising over 40% [2] - Bitcoin increased by more than 6.5%, despite nearly 280,000 liquidations in the past 24 hours [2] Electric Vehicle Industry - NIO's stock surged over 7% following the announcement of its new model, the Ladao L90, with a starting price of 279,900 yuan for purchase and 193,900 yuan for battery rental [3] - The Ladao L90 is set to officially launch at the end of July, with deliveries starting on August 1 [3] Trade Policy and Economic Outlook - President Trump announced plans to impose a 15% or 20% tariff on nearly all remaining trade partners, raising concerns in the market [4][5] - The Royal Bank of Canada has pushed back its forecast for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts from September to December, citing the need for more time to assess inflation and labor market conditions [5]