Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole conference has significantly increased expectations for interest rate cuts, with U.S. stock indices breaking previous highs from February and setting new historical records [1][3] - Powell indicated that the U.S. job market faces downside risks, which may necessitate a policy adjustment, and announced a new policy framework adopting a "flexible average inflation targeting" approach [3] - Market expectations for a rate cut in September rose from 75.5% to 91.1%, with a 48.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 46.8% chance of a total 50 basis point cut by December [3] Group 2 - President Trump attempted to remove Powell in July and has publicly pressured the Fed to lower rates, contrasting with the Fed's decision to maintain rates steady since January [4] - Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to increased volatility in the markets and a rise in 30-year Treasury yields [4] - Analysts suggest that while the increased rate cut expectations are positive for U.S. stocks, political interference and slowing economic data may limit the upside potential for the market [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold is gaining prominence as a safe haven asset amid concerns over the dollar's credibility and rising inflation, with gold prices surpassing $3,500 per ounce, marking a historic high and outperforming stocks and bonds this year [2] - Central banks are driving record demand for gold, reflecting a shift in market sentiment regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [2][3] - The current gold price, adjusted for inflation, is nearing its highest level since the 1980s, coinciding with political pressures on the Federal Reserve to maintain low interest rates [3] Group 2 - Historical parallels are drawn to the 1970s when political pressure led to a significant depreciation of the dollar and a 300% increase in gold prices, suggesting a potential repeat of this scenario if the Federal Reserve lowers rates amid rising prices [3] - Major financial institutions like UBS, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs are optimistic about gold's future, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by 2026 [3] - Current ETF holdings in gold are still below the peaks seen in 2020 and 2022, indicating that there is still room for growth in gold investments [3]

高盛最新警告称，如果美联储公信力受损，投资者仅需将极小部分美债持仓转向黄金，金价就可能飙升至每盎司 近5000美元的惊人水平。 高盛在报告中提出三种金价情景：基线预测为2026年中升至4000美元，尾部风险情境下达到4500美元，而极端情 况下若仅1%私人持有美债资金流入黄金市场，金价将逼近5000美元关口。 近期特朗普试图加强对美联储的控制，包括推动罢免理事Lisa Cook，这一举动引发市场对央行独立性的担忧。欧 洲央行行长拉加德警告称，美联储失去独立性将对全球构成"严重危险"。 美联储独立性风险引发市场担忧 高盛在题为"分散投资大宗商品，尤其是黄金"的报告中详细分析了推动金价达到5000美元的机制。分析师包括 Samantha Dart在内的团队估算，"如果私人持有的美国国债市场中仅有1%的资金流入黄金，在其他条件不变的情 况下，金价将升至每盎司近5000美元"。 该投行将黄金描述为"不依赖机构信任的价值储存工具"，这一特性在央行独立性面临质疑时显得尤为重要。报告 指出，美联储独立性受损将导致一系列连锁反应，包括通胀预期上升、传统金融资产吸引力下降，以及美元国际 地位的潜在动摇。 黄金今年已成为表现最强 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs warns that if the credibility of the Federal Reserve is compromised, a small shift of U.S. Treasury holdings to gold could drive prices to nearly $5,000 per ounce [1][5] - The report outlines three scenarios for gold prices: a baseline prediction of $4,000 by mid-2026, a tail risk scenario of $4,500, and an extreme case where just 1% of private U.S. Treasury holdings flow into gold, pushing prices close to $5,000 [1][5][6] - Gold is characterized as a "store of value that does not rely on institutional trust," making it particularly appealing in the context of concerns over central bank independence [5][6] Group 2 - Recent actions by Trump to exert control over the Federal Reserve, including attempts to remove board member Lisa Cook, have raised concerns about the central bank's independence [4] - ECB President Christine Lagarde has warned that a loss of independence for the Federal Reserve could pose "serious dangers" to the global economy [4] - Goldman Sachs maintains a strong bullish stance on gold, viewing it as the "highest conviction buy" in the commodities sector, with significant price increases expected even under baseline conditions [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Milan, nominated by President Donald Trump for the Federal Reserve Board, emphasizes the importance of maintaining the Fed's independence and its dual mandate of "price stability and maximum employment" [1][2] Group 1: Nomination and Responsibilities - Milan's nomination aims to fill the remaining term of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler, which ends on January 31, 2026 [1] - If confirmed, Milan will complete Kugler's remaining term rather than becoming a permanent member [1] Group 2: Policy Stance and Economic Analysis - Trump has long advocated for significantly lowering borrowing costs, while Milan has previously criticized the Fed's aggressive stimulus measures during the COVID-19 pandemic [2] - Milan commits to making decisions based on macroeconomic analysis and long-term optimization if confirmed [2] Group 3: Independence and Oversight - Milan stresses the importance of the Federal Open Market Committee's independence and its responsibility to serve the American public [2] - He expresses concerns regarding the Fed's activities beyond its dual mandate, particularly related to the central bank's balance sheet [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to drive further inflows into gold ETFs, potentially pushing gold prices to approximately $3,675 per ounce by the end of the year, with projections of reaching $4,000 in Q2 of next year and $4,250 by the end of 2026, particularly if there are successful efforts to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook [1][1][1] Group 1 - Analyst Patrick Jones from JPMorgan highlights that the expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will likely lead to increased investments in gold ETFs [1] - The forecasted gold price of $3,675 per ounce by year-end is based on the assumption of favorable monetary policy changes [1] - The potential removal of Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve could have broader implications for the Fed's structure and independence, which may significantly impact long-term gold prices [1][1]

Core Points - The recent conflict between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve has drawn global attention, highlighting the tension between political power and institutional independence [1][3] - Trump's actions, including the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook, reflect a significant shift in the relationship between the presidency and the Federal Reserve, raising concerns about the independence of monetary policy [3][5] - The potential implications of this power struggle could destabilize not only the U.S. economy but also the global financial system, as the credibility of the Federal Reserve is crucial for global asset pricing [5][7] Group 1 - The Trump administration's approach to the Federal Reserve has been characterized by direct intervention and pressure, undermining the traditional independence of the central bank [1][3] - Trump's dismissal of Cook, based on unsubstantiated allegations, exemplifies a new precedent where presidential authority overrides established legal norms regarding the removal of Federal Reserve officials [3][5] - The political motivations behind these actions are evident, as they are aimed at consolidating power and influencing the upcoming 2026 midterm elections [5][7] Group 2 - The response from international figures, such as ECB President Lagarde, indicates widespread concern over the potential risks posed by Trump's interference in the Federal Reserve [5][7] - The current political landscape, with the Republican Party controlling both houses of Congress, limits the effectiveness of opposition voices, allowing Trump's agenda to proceed with minimal resistance [7][8] - The ongoing struggle between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve reflects deeper societal conflicts and could lead to significant shifts in the U.S.'s position as a global financial leader [7][8]

米兰如果获参议院批准，将填补上月阿德里亚娜・库格勒辞职留下的临时空缺。库格勒原本的任期要到 明年1月才结束，这意味着即便米兰顺利就职，他在美联储理事会的任职时间也可能仅有数月便需离 任。即便如此，特朗普政府仍在积极推动米兰的就职进程，目标是让他能赶在9月16日至17日美联储下 次利率会议召开前正式加入理事会。 外界主流观点认为，特朗普提名他可能是想在美联储理事会内部安插一位 "影子主席"，其核心职责并 非常规政策制定，而是充当 "搅局者"，打破当前理事会的决策平衡。 作为美联储理事，米兰若就职将拥有在FOMC的利率决策中的投票权以及能对与华尔街监管规则相关的 重大决策投票。此外，他还将参与美联储内部关于员工管理及各类内部事务的讨论，这些讨论虽不直接 涉及政策，却会间接影响央行的运行效率。 dbg盾博发现特朗普政府提名白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬・米兰出任美联储理事会新成员，外界普 遍疑虑在政府持续向美联储施压的当下，若他顺利就职，是否会削弱央行长期以来的独立性。 周三公开的听证预备证词中，米兰明确表示，在自己的认知里，央行的核心价值在于防范像大萧条那样 的深度衰退以及可能摧毁民众财富的恶性通胀，而要实现这一目 ...

本文字数：1301，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 葛唯尔 2025.09. 04 当地时间9月4日10点，美国总统特朗普提名的美联储理事人选、白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰将出席参议院银行委员会举行的听证会。 米兰：维护美联储独立性 在提交给参议院银行委员会的听证词中，米兰强调将维护美联储货币政策的独立性。他表示："在我看来，央行最重要的职责是防止经济萧条和恶性通 货膨胀。货币政策的独立性是其成功的关键因素。" "如果提名获得确认，我将根据国会赋予的授权尽职尽责地履行我的职责。"米兰表示，"我的意见和决定将基于我对宏观经济的分析以及对其长期管理 最有利的方案。联邦公开市场委员会是一个肩负重任的独立机构，我打算保持这种独立性，并尽我所能为美国人民服务。" 他同时在证词中抛出问题："美联储监管着全球最重要的金融机构。它为借款人和贷款人（包括其他央行）设定不同的货币价格。美联储资产负债表的 最终构成是一个悬而未决的问题。" 特朗普加速"重组"美联储 在上周举行的一次内阁会议上，特朗普表示："我们可能会把他（米兰）换到另一个席位——那是一个更长的任期。" 库克于2022年由美国前总统拜登提名进入美联储理 ...

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran, nominated by President Trump for the Federal Reserve Board, aims to reassure concerns about potential government pressure on the Fed's independence during his upcoming Senate Banking Committee hearing [2][3] Group 1: Miran's Position and Responsibilities - Miran emphasizes the importance of the Fed's independence in preventing economic downturns and inflation, stating that he will work to maintain this independence if appointed [2] - He commits to making policy decisions based on macroeconomic analysis and the long-term health of the economy, adhering to Congress's goals of low inflation and a healthy labor market [2] - Miran raises questions about the Fed's regulatory activities beyond its dual mandate, particularly regarding the composition of its balance sheet [2] Group 2: Context and Implications - Miran's potential appointment comes at a sensitive time for the Fed, which has faced pressure from Trump for not significantly lowering interest rates as expected [2][3] - If confirmed, Miran will fill the vacancy left by Adriana Kugler, who resigned, and his term may be short-lived, potentially lasting only a few months [3] - There are speculations that Trump may be seeking to appoint a "shadow chairman" to influence the Fed's direction, as he has expressed a desire for a board majority that aligns with his views [3]