行业 贵金属日评 日期 2026 年 01 月 09 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 每日报告 二、贵金属市场相关图表 2025 年 12 月美国 ADP 私人就业增加 4.1 万，这为美联储再次暂停降息进程 提供依据，美元指数持续反弹至 98.8 附近；金银价格在前高附近遇阻后连续第二 天调整，因美元指数反弹、委内瑞拉局势恶化的避险需求边际减退，且市场关注 将于周五公布的非农就业报告的方向指示。我们认为 2025 年 12 月底的回调已经 充分释放贵金属内部积累的调整风险，总体看在国际政经格局重组、美联储宽松 货币政策、全球 ...

Group 1 - OPEC+ reaffirmed its decision to pause production increases for January, February, and March 2026 due to seasonal reasons, which aligns with market expectations and has a limited impact on the oil market [1] - The decision to pause production increases in Q1 2026 helps alleviate the pressure of rapid supply growth, slightly improving market sentiment, although the potential increase of 1.24 million barrels per day will not be implemented until at least Q2 [1] - The oil market in 2026 will be influenced by international trade disputes, Federal Reserve monetary policy, U.S. oil demand, OPEC+ production policies, and geopolitical situations [3] Group 2 - The global oil demand growth is expected to be moderate, providing limited support to the oil market, while U.S. oil demand is anticipated to remain robust until mid-year, which may offer some sustained support [3] - OPEC+'s decision to pause production increases in Q1 2026 will moderately ease supply-side pressures, but the cumulative production increase from 2025 remains significant, alongside expectations of increased production from the U.S. and other oil-producing countries [3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation and uncertainties in the Middle East, continue to pose risks to the oil market, with potential disruptions in supply [3][4] Group 3 - The oil market is expected to face significant downward pressure on prices in 2026 due to macroeconomic pressures and industry oversupply, with high volatility anticipated [4] - Oil prices in Q1 2026 are projected to stabilize around $60 per barrel for Brent and $56 per barrel for WTI, with a gradual downward shift in price levels [4] - Key risk factors for the market include geopolitical issues and systemic economic and financial risks [4]

Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing volatility, with a recent 4.40% decline in international spot gold prices, followed by a rebound of over 1.5% due to geopolitical tensions [1] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is anticipated to be a key indicator for short-term gold price movements, with expectations of a 55,000 increase in jobs and a decrease in the unemployment rate from 4.6% to 4.5% [3] - The report is significant as it is the first normal monthly employment data following the end of the U.S. government's record shutdown in 2025 [3] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks are identified as a critical variable influencing gold prices, with spot gold prices expected to surpass the 4500 mark in 2026 [2] - Central bank gold purchases are on the rise, with global net purchases exceeding 1,200 tons in 2025, marking a 15% year-on-year increase, and the People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months [2] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is at a turning point, with potential leadership changes that could impact future policy directions and, consequently, the gold market [2] Group 3 - Investors are advised to adopt a structured approach to trading around the non-farm data release, including risk management strategies and technical setups [4] - During the data release, it is crucial to remain calm and observe the immediate market reactions, particularly the relationship between the U.S. dollar index and gold prices [5] - Post-data release, if the results significantly deviate from expectations, investors should assess the sustainability of price movements and adjust their positions accordingly [6] Group 4 - The trading platform, Leping Global, emphasizes the importance of professional trading tools in data-driven markets, offering a stable and efficient trading environment [7] - Leping Global provides promotional offers, including double points for trading during the non-farm week, which can enhance trading efficiency for short-term opportunities [7] - The company aims to support investors in navigating market volatility with professional insights and robust strategies [7]

对于铜价走势，光大期货表示，市场分歧加大，贵金属和有色板块开始出现降温，这也是近期部分品种 再次出现过热现象后多头获利了结的结果，笔者认为有序调整后有利于后续行情的发展，关注持续性。 （文华综合） 隔夜公布的美国经济数据良莠不齐，部分就业数据不及预期，劳动力市场表现偏低迷，周五美国非农就 业数据即将出炉，市场等待更多指引，并将在此基础上衡量美联储货币政策前景。前期贵金属携手有色 板块涨势过快，伴随着贵金属行情降温，有色金属也普遍回落，沪铜走势追随沪银。 沪铜早间低开震荡，午后跌幅有所扩大，收盘下跌2.76%，期价仍在十万关口上方。沪铜追随贵金属跌 势，高价对国内需求的抑制延续，国内社会库存继续累积，现货维持贴水局面。 ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has decided to pause production increases for the first quarter of 2026 due to seasonal reasons, which aligns with market expectations and has a limited impact on the oil market [2][10]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Policy - OPEC+ is the primary organization influencing oil supply, and its production policies have undergone several adjustments in recent years [3][11]. - Starting in 2025, OPEC+ initiated a gradual recovery plan for voluntary production cuts, which is perceived as an increase in production, negatively impacting the oil market [3][11]. - The first phase of this recovery plan began in April 2025, with a total of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in voluntary cuts, leading to significant increases in production over the following months [3][11]. - By September 2025, OPEC+ had completed the first phase ahead of schedule, resulting in a cumulative increase of nearly 2.5 million bpd, which exceeded market expectations and exerted downward pressure on oil prices [3][11]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Economic Factors - The second phase of production recovery, starting in October 2025, was more moderate, with an increase of 137,000 bpd over three months, leaving 1.24 million bpd yet to be reduced [4][12]. - The pause in production increases for the first quarter of 2026 is expected to alleviate some supply-side pressures and improve market sentiment [5][12]. - The oil market is facing dual pressures from macroeconomic factors and industry oversupply, with significant downward pressure on oil prices anticipated in 2026 [14][15]. - Key market concerns include international trade disputes, U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy, and geopolitical tensions, which are likely to continue affecting oil prices [14][15]. Group 3: Price Projections - Oil prices are expected to remain volatile in 2026, with projections suggesting that Brent and WTI prices will stabilize around $60 and $56 per barrel, respectively, in the first quarter [15].

1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Precious metals prices have pulled back from high levels, with silver experiencing a larger decline than gold due to profit - taking by some investors and position adjustments before the re - balancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index. The weakening of the US economy, continuous gold purchases by the Chinese central bank, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of Fed easing are expected to limit the downside of gold prices. Silver, which has had a large increase previously, faces high short - term volatility risks [1]. - Gold prices dropped nearly 1% during the day. Given geopolitical tensions, Fed easing expectations, and continuous gold purchases by the Chinese central bank, the downside of gold is expected to be limited. Short - term attention should be paid to the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday, the situation after the US raid on Venezuela, the weight adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, the nomination of the new Fed chair, and upcoming economic data [5]. - International silver prices dropped over 4% and Shanghai silver prices dropped nearly 4% during the day. Short - term volatility risks of silver at high levels have increased. Along with factors similar to those of gold, attention should also be paid to the results of the silver investigation in the US 232 report in mid - January [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - US economic data: In December, the ADP employment was 41,000 (expected 47,000, previous - 29,000), the JOLTs job openings in November were 7.146 million (expected 7.6 million, previous 7.449 million), the December ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4 (expected 52.3, previous 52.6), the October factory order monthly rate was - 1.3% (expected - 1.2%, previous 0.2%), and the October durable goods order monthly rate final value was - 2.2% (in line with expectations and previous value) [2]. - Chinese central bank's gold purchase: As of December 2025, the Chinese central bank has increased its gold reserves for the 14th consecutive month, with the gold reserve reaching 74.15 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces from November. The foreign exchange reserve was $3.3579 trillion, up $1.15 billion from November, rising for the 5th consecutive month [2]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange's adjustment: Starting from January 9, 2026, the flat - today trading fee of the silver futures AG2604 contract will be adjusted to 0.025% of the transaction amount. The trading margin ratio, daily price limit, and trading limit of some silver futures contracts will also be adjusted [3]. - Geopolitical event: On January 6, the US White House Press Secretary said that President Trump and his team are discussing "a series of options" to obtain Greenland, including "using the US military" [3]. Price Logic - Gold: The decline in gold prices during the day was nearly 1%. Given the weakening of the US economy, continuous gold purchases by the central bank, geopolitical tensions, and Fed easing expectations, the downside of gold prices is expected to be limited. Short - term attention should be paid to the non - farm payrolls report on Friday [5]. - Silver: International silver prices dropped over 4% and Shanghai silver prices dropped nearly 4% during the day. Short - term volatility risks of silver at high levels have increased. In addition to factors similar to those of gold, attention should be paid to the results of the silver investigation in the US 232 report in mid - January [6]. Index Information - Special Index: The commodity index was 2405.76, up 0.78%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.33, up 0.55%; the industrial products index was 2344.88, up 1.20%; the PPI commodity index was 1467.90, up 0.62% [48]. - Sector Index: The precious metals index on January 7, 2026, was 4030.94, with a daily decline of 0.67%, a 5 - day increase of 3.03%, a 1 - month increase of 14.46%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.40% [49].

与此同时，美国总统特朗普持续威胁要吞并格陵兰岛，这也成为市场面临的一个潜在风险。风险因素的 不断累积，为国际黄金价格在2026年初的上涨提供了关键动力。值得注意的是，地缘政治风险并非国际 黄金市场的唯一影响因素。 2026年，美联储的降息倾向以及美联储主席换届，均在一定程度上利好国际黄金市场的表现。2025年9 月，美联储正式开启降息周期，并且在2025年最后的三场货币政策会议上连续降息。进入2026年，美联 储内部对于下一步应该如何调整货币政策路径依然存在分歧。 2026年伊始，国际金价延续了2025年的火热势头。1月6日，国际现货黄金价格一度站上4500美元/盎 司，虽有波动，但总体而言，国际黄金价格仍维持在高位。2026年开年，美国与委内瑞拉之间的地缘政 治冲突点燃了市场的避险情绪，黄金作为重要的避险资产，继续受到市场投资者的追捧。 明尼阿波利斯联储行长卡什卡利表示，美联储距离停止降息已经非常接近。现在的政策立场已经非常接 近中性。需要有更多的数据来判断，究竟是通胀问题更突出，还是劳动力市场更值得担忧。 尽管当前美联储内部对后续的货币政策路径存在一定的分歧，但从目前的情况看，美联储在2026年可能 至少 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to show strength, with significant price increases in nickel, tin, and alumina driven by low valuations, supply disruptions, and rising demand [1][2]. Group 1: Nickel Market - Nickel prices are surging due to tightening supply expectations from Indonesia and increased market sentiment, with nickel being relatively undervalued compared to other metals [2]. - Recent policy changes in Indonesia, including a reduction in nickel ore production quotas and a revision of the pricing formula for nickel, are expected to increase production costs [1][2]. - The solid-state battery industry's rapid development is anticipated to boost long-term demand for nickel, despite the current market fundamentals remaining weak [2]. Group 2: Tin Market - Tin prices are rising due to supply constraints and continuous demand growth, with recent production issues in Myanmar impacting supply significantly [2]. - The decline in ore quality from overseas sources is also contributing to the supply challenges in the tin market [2]. Group 3: Alumina Market - The increase in alumina prices is primarily driven by low valuations and the impact of differential electricity pricing policies, which are expected to lead to industry upgrades and higher operational costs [2]. - Electricity costs account for 13% to 15% of alumina production costs, making the differential pricing policy a significant factor in market sentiment [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The current lack of downstream demand for non-ferrous metals and limited acceptance of high-priced goods in the spot market may lead to a gradual adjustment in pricing through the futures market [3]. - The non-ferrous metal sector may face significant correction risks in the medium to long term, particularly for alumina and lead, while the performance of nickel is heavily reliant on overseas policy factors [3]. - The market is expected to continue trading based on macroeconomic policies and supply security, with stronger performance anticipated for tin, copper, and aluminum, while nickel, zinc, and lead may perform relatively weaker [3].

Core Viewpoint - European stock markets have retreated from historical highs, primarily due to the energy sector's drag on the overall market, following President Trump's announcement that Venezuela will transfer oil worth up to $2.8 billion to the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The Stoxx 600 index closed slightly below the previous closing level, ending a three-day rally [1][3] - Construction, industrial, and real estate stocks led the gains, while defense stocks also saw an increase [1][3] - Major European stock indices have performed well at the start of the year, with investors heavily buying defense and mining stocks following U.S. actions against Venezuela [1][3] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The market's reaction to global developments has been calm, with a renewed focus on inflation trends related to Federal Reserve monetary policy [5] - The first data releases of the year are expected to indicate a direction for the market [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global economy may still be in a slow recovery state. Although the US mid - term elections may temporarily reduce international geopolitical conflicts, the long - term upward trend of precious metals is still supported, but there may be a process of phased shock adjustment and re - accumulation of momentum. Precious metals should focus on structural opportunities in 2026 [3]. - The factors driving the rise of gold in 2026, such as central bank gold purchases and individual gold purchases for hedging, may still exist. The upward factors of gold are more than the downward factors, and the gold price trend may still be a structural market that is easy to rise and difficult to fall [3]. - The supply - demand tight - balance structure of silver still exists in 2026. The US economic downward pressure, combined with interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus, will increase market risk appetite and be beneficial to silver. Silver may passively follow the fluctuations of gold, with a relatively large amplitude and overall stronger than gold [3]. - In the long - term (5 - 10 years), the upward cycle of precious metals may not end, but in 2026, there may be phased structural markets with strong wide - range shock characteristics [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: 2025 Precious Metals Trend Review - COMEX gold and silver futures showed a unilateral upward trend in 2025. Gold rose 64.03% from 2641.0 points on January 2 to 4332.2 points on December 16. Silver rose 117.65% from 2931.0 points on January 2 to 6379.5 points on December 16, showing an obvious catch - up trend [8][12]. - The price trend of gold in 2025 can be divided into four stages: the first stage from January 2 to April 22 was driven by Trump's re - election and tariff policies; the second stage from April 22 to August 19 was a shock period waiting for the situation to clear; the third stage from August 21 to October 17 was the second - round upward trend driven by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations; the fourth stage from October 20 onwards was a phased top - seeking process [8][9]. - The price trend of silver in 2025 was different from that of gold. It was in a wide - range shock in the first half of the year and started a catch - up trend after the Fed's interest rate cuts in September and October [12][14]. Chapter 2: International Political and Economic Pattern Analysis 2.1 Global Economic Recovery is Slow - The IMF's October 2025 forecast shows that the global economic growth in 2025 is 3.20%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared with the July forecast, but the forecast for 2026 is 3.10%, the same as the July forecast. The IMF's view on the 2026 global economy has become more pessimistic in the second half of 2025 [17]. - The global economic policy uncertainty remains at a high level, reaching the level around the 2020 pandemic. In 2026, the great changes unseen in a century may accelerate, and the world political and economic pattern may still be in a process of turbulent evolution with high uncertainty [20]. 2.2 Global Central Bank Policies Continue to Diverge - In 2025, the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of England were in the interest - rate cut cycle, while the Bank of Japan was in the interest - rate hike cycle, and the People's Bank of China implemented loose policies. In 2026, the ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, the Bank of Japan may continue to raise interest rates, and the People's Bank of China will probably maintain a loose monetary policy [21][22]. - The inflation trends of major developed economies are also different. The inflation in the US and the eurozone is on the rise, while the inflation in the UK and Japan is on the decline. The different policies of central banks will affect the US dollar index and increase the positive factors for precious metals [24]. 2.3 US Mid - term Elections, Uncertainty Still Exists - In 2026, the US will hold mid - term elections. The market expects that Trump may lose the control of the House of Representatives. To maintain support, Trump may choose to ease domestic and foreign contradictions, and the Sino - US game may ease temporarily [25]. - There are three possible results of the US mid - term elections. If the Republicans control both the Senate and the House of Representatives, the risk - aversion sentiment may push up precious metals; if the Republicans lose both, the global economic and political situation will be more complex and difficult to predict [27]. Chapter 3: US Treasury Yield and US Dollar Index 3.1 US Economic Analysis - In 2025, US consumption showed a high - level shock, with an expanding amplitude. Although the consumption was still at a relatively high level after the pandemic, the consumption ability decreased due to the increase in inflation. The consumption potential has been under pressure since May 2025 and has a risk of further decline [29]. - In terms of production and investment, the new orders of the US manufacturing industry increased continuously, the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased, and the capacity utilization rate remained at a relatively high level, indicating the recovery of the manufacturing industry. The real estate investment has limited impact on the economy [31][34]. 3.2 US Treasury Yield Analysis - The relationship between precious metals and the US dollar showed a reverse trend overall in 2025, but there were also periods of simultaneous rise and fall. The analysis of the US dollar exchange rate and US Treasury yield is still an important framework for analyzing precious metals [36]. - The US economy showed good resilience in 2025, but there was a downward pressure. The inflation pressure weakened, but the inflation data and inflation expectations showed a certain divergence. In 2026, factors such as the Fed's independence, oil price trends, and economic control need to be paid attention to [37][43]. 3.3 US Dollar Exchange Rate Analysis - The precious metals are naturally related to the US dollar. The US dollar index is an important variable for tracking precious metal prices. The economic conditions and central bank policies of major developed economies are different, and the US dollar may be under pressure in 2026, which provides certain support for precious metals [44]. - The Fed will face the replacement of the chairman in 2026. It is expected that the Fed will still cut interest rates slowly, and the trend of the US dollar index will be complex, with many uncertainties in its impact on gold [47]. Chapter 4: RMB Exchange Rate Analysis - The RMB exchange rate generally follows the US dollar index, but in the second half of 2025, the reverse relationship with the US dollar index weakened, and the RMB appreciated independently. In 2026, the RMB may continue to appreciate slowly, and the impact on gold prices is limited [48]. - The Sino - US interest rate spread narrowed in the second half of 2025, and there is a possibility of further narrowing. If the People's Bank of China also cuts interest rates, the spread may maintain a narrow - range shock, and the impact on the exchange rate is limited [49]. Chapter 5: Institutional Position Analysis - For gold, the total holdings of gold ETFs increased significantly in July 2024 and decreased slightly in February 2025. The non - commercial long - position ratio of gold in COMEX is still relatively high, but there is a downward trend. The speculative position ratio decreased, and the hedging position ratio increased, strengthening the commodity attribute of gold [51]. - For silver, the total holdings of silver ETFs have been increasing since February 2019 and are currently at a high level. The non - commercial long - position ratio of silver in COMEX increased slowly from October 21, 2025, and decreased on December 9. The long - position ratio of silver is not very high, and the basis for its rise may not be very solid [52]. Chapter 6: Conclusion and Outlook - The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle in 2026 has many constraints, and the support for gold from the interest - rate cut cycle may be limited. The result of the US mid - term elections will determine the intensity of international geopolitical games. In 2026, the probability of a unilateral trend in the gold market is low, and it is more likely to be a structural market [55]. - In 2026, the rise of the gold price may slow down. Silver may passively follow the fluctuations of gold. Due to the tight supply - demand balance, silver will continue to be driven by both financial and industrial attributes, and there may be a certain correction but still a relatively certain structural market, and it may outperform gold [56].