美东时间5月7日周三，美联储公布的货币政策声明新增一句："失业率上升和通胀上升的风险已增加。" 会后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔被问道，在他的任期内需要首先解决哪一方面的问题，是失业的还是通胀 的。 鲍威尔表示，失业率上升和通胀上升的风险加剧。目前尚不清楚哪一种风险才是更令人担忧的问 题。"现在下结论还为时过早。" 鲍威尔认为，需要同时关注失业和通胀的风险两个问题，可能不得不 在它们之间做出取舍。 被问及美联储是否需要很长时间才能弄清楚事态发展时，鲍威尔强调："我认为我们不知道。" 他还重 申之前的言论，称美联储不会急于降息。他说： "我们认为，不需要急于调整利率。" "我们认为可以耐心，我们将关注数据。" 美联储最近会议决定再次暂停降息，美联储主席鲍威尔会后也再次重申，联储不急于行动，不认为应该 先发制人降息应对关税冲击，又一次打脸一再敦促立即降息的美国总统特朗普。 同时，特朗普强调高关税对可能推升失业和通胀。 "如果已宣布的大幅提高关税措施持续下去，可能会导致通胀上升、经济增长放缓和失业率上升。" 当前货币政策有适度限制性观望是很明确的决定 鲍威尔评论美国经济称，经济仍然稳健。劳动力市场大体均衡，处于、或接近充 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent economic negative factors have led to a decline in the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, with market focus shifting to the pressures of global trade friction on the economy, particularly after the record trade deficit data was released [1] Trade Deficit - The trade deficit in March expanded to a record $140.5 billion, a 14% increase compared to the same period last year, significantly exceeding economists' expectations [4] - The increase in trade deficit is primarily attributed to businesses importing large quantities of goods to avoid potential tariff costs ahead of new tariffs being implemented [4] - Market analysts believe that as the surge in imports nears its end, this trend is expected to ease in the coming months, supported by declining survey data and port container shipping volumes [4] Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - The decline in two-year Treasury yields indicates that investors are increasingly anticipating potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with traders expecting three rate cuts this year, the first possibly in September [6] - However, the decision for further easing by the Federal Reserve will depend on economic data performance, with the stronger-than-expected April non-farm payroll report slightly cooling market bets on rate cuts [6] - Investors remain cautious due to increased market uncertainty, as the Fed may not implement comprehensive monetary easing despite concerning economic data [6] Supply Chain Issues - Analysts from BlackRock Investment Institute suggest that U.S. economic performance this year may be hampered by supply-side issues, with tariff policies potentially leading to supply bottlenecks similar to those experienced during the pandemic [7] - This situation will force the Federal Reserve to make difficult choices between supporting economic growth and curbing inflation [7] - Overall, global trade friction, the potential impacts of tariff policies, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions will be key factors influencing the U.S. economic trajectory in the coming months [7]

多头提前撤退！美联储今夜"按兵不动"对金价有何影响？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding trade agreements and tariff policies has led to a decline in U.S. stock markets for the second consecutive day, with investors expressing concerns about future trade policies and their economic implications [1][3][7]. Trade Agreement Uncertainty - Trump's statement about reviewing potential trade agreements in the next two weeks contrasts with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's earlier comments suggesting that some agreements could be announced as early as this week, increasing market volatility and investor anxiety [3][5]. Market Performance and Sector Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.95% to 40,829.00 points, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.77% to 5,606.90 points, and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.87% to 17,689.66 points. The U.S. Commerce Department reported a record trade deficit of $140.5 billion in March, driven by increased imports ahead of tariff announcements [4][5]. - Healthcare stocks declined by 2.8%, with Eli Lilly down 5.6% and Moderna down 12.3%, significantly impacting the S&P 500 index [4]. Impact of Tariff Policies - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies has notably affected the market, particularly after Trump's announcement regarding potential tariffs on pharmaceuticals, leading to significant declines in healthcare stocks reliant on imported drugs [5][6]. Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Outlook - Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, indicated a patient approach to monetary policy adjustments until the effects of tariffs are reflected in economic data. The market anticipates an 80% probability of at least a 25 basis point rate cut in the July meeting, reflecting concerns about the economic outlook [6].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in May is a significant event for the gold market, as policy changes could lead to substantial price fluctuations for gold investors, particularly newcomers [1] Group 1: Understanding the Federal Reserve's Signals - Decoding the Federal Reserve's "language" is crucial for investors to analyze future gold market trends [2] - The dot plot, reflecting officials' interest rate predictions, indicates that a reduction in expected rate cuts for 2025 could negatively impact gold prices, while an increase in expected cuts would be beneficial [2] - Current market expectations suggest a 97.2% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in May, with only a 2.8% chance of a 25 basis point cut [2] - Jerome Powell's statements significantly influence market expectations, with potential hints that rate cuts are not imminent and that tariffs may increase inflation, impacting economic growth [2] Group 2: Key Economic Indicators - Inflation indicators such as core PCE and CPI are vital for the Fed's monetary policy decisions and serve as barometers for gold market trends [3] - As of April, core PCE remained stable at 0.2% month-on-month and approximately 2.7% year-on-year, slightly above the Fed's 2% target, but showing signs of slowing growth [3] - The April CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, below the market expectation of 3.6%, indicating a continued decline in price increases [3] - The April non-farm payrolls showed an increase of 177,000, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 138,000, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2% [3] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Investors should adopt a three-step approach to navigate the volatility surrounding the Fed's meeting [4] - Before the meeting, with high expectations for the Fed to maintain rates, investors are advised to reduce positions to mitigate risks [4] - During the meeting, focus on the interest rate decision, dot plot, and Powell's Q&A; dovish signals may prompt gradual gold purchases, while hawkish comments warrant caution [4] - After the meeting, market volatility typically peaks, and investors should adjust positions based on technical analysis, particularly if gold prices break key resistance levels [4] - If Powell indicates a clear "mid-year rate cut" signal, gold prices may rise further towards previous highs [4]

金十数据5月7日讯，美国国债和欧元区国债收益率在早盘交易中几乎没有变化，因为投资者在美联储政 策会议之前保持观望。预计美联储将在周三的决定中维持利率不变，而且由于近期美国经济数据强劲， 不太可能在未来几个月发出降息信号。KBC bank分析师在一份报告中表示："预计美联储将保持利率稳 定，并表示无意在短期内打破僵局。" 分析师：美联储将表示无意在短期内打破僵局 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced fluctuations, with a rebound following gold prices, amid concerns over new U.S. policies on drug imports and tariffs, which have heightened demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, which poses long-term pressure on non-yielding assets like silver [2] - The current silver price is testing a key resistance level of $33.500, with potential upward movement if this level is breached [2] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with geopolitical tensions potentially driving silver prices above $33.500 towards the psychological level of $35.000 [3] - Institutional positioning shows a slight increase in long and short ratios, indicating a balanced market without extreme sentiment [3] Technical Analysis - The Bollinger Bands indicate that silver is currently in an upward channel, with the upper band at $34.715 and the lower band at $29.966 [2] - Key support levels for silver are identified at $32.800 and $32.400, with a potential drop to $31.182 if these levels are breached [3] Trading Strategy - A trading strategy suggests entering long positions around $31.88 with a stop loss at $31.50 and a take profit target between $33.68 and $33.90 [7]

5月7日亚洲交易时段早盘，美元指数呈现技术性修正特征。截至发稿，该指数报99.54，较开盘价99.26上涨0.27%，但未能突破关键阻力位。市场参与者正 通过技术指标与基本面数据交叉验证，研判美联储货币政策路径的潜在变化。 就业数据强化政策观望立场 最新出炉的4月非农就业报告为美联储维持限制性货币政策提供重要依据。数据显示，当月美国非农就业人口新增17.7万人，超出市场预期中值15万人，失 业率连续第三个月维持在4.2%水平。值得关注的是，在特朗普政府宣布实施新一轮关税政策后，就业市场未现明显裂痕，这与关税暂停执行至7月的政策缓 冲期存在关联。 Lindsay Rosner指出，强劲的劳动力市场数据为美联储保持战略定力创造条件。但该机构同时警示，就业指标作为经济滞后指标，可能尚未充分反映关税冲 击对实体经济的传导效应。当前通胀水平持续高于2%政策目标，叠加关税可能引发的输入性通胀压力，使得美联储在降息决策上需权衡增长风险与物价稳 定目标。 布林带系统（20日均线参数）显示，当前价格运行于中轨（101.3881）与下轨（96.9796）之间，上轨压力位在105.7966。这种技术结构表明，美元指数仍处 于震荡收 ...

2025年美联储5月议息会议将有两大关键看点：政策利率决定以及鲍威尔新闻发布会。调查显示，美联 储5月维持利率不变的概率高达96.8%，降息25个基点的概率为3.2%。目前市场普遍预计，美联储美联 储将在此次会议上维持利率不变，其原因在于，一方面，美国劳动力市场仍保持韧性，为美联储维持利 率提供了支撑；另一方面，通胀虽有所降温但仍具一定粘性，且需关注关税等政策对通胀及经济增长的 影响。不过，也有分析人士认为，若美国经济数据持续改善，可能出现要求更激进加息的声音，但当前 这种可能性较小。无论最终决策如何，议息结果都将影响着金价短期内出现较大波动性。 对于黄金投资新手而言，了解美联储议息动向不仅能洞悉宏观经济趋势，更能为把握黄金行情提供重要 依据。为此，领峰环球黄金平台将通过下文简单介绍美联储此次会议召开的背景和市场预测情况，以便 投资者更好地把握议息风波下的黄金行情。 一、宏观经济背景与市场动态 2025年4月国际市场经济数据喜忧参半：部分发达经济体通胀有所回落，而新兴市场则受原材料价格波 动影响风险加剧。美国方面，劳动力市场稳健，4月非农就业人数大超预期增加17.7万，失业率维持 4.2%，劳动力参与率上升。 ...

从日线图来看，黄金价格正在突破重要阻力位，形成强劲的上升趋势。价格当前交易于3400美元附近，已成功突破3330美元关键阻力区域。布林带指标显示 中轨位于3231.01，上轨位于3485.06，下轨位于2976.97，表明当前价格已处于布林带上轨附近，展现出较强上升动能。RSI指标显示当前值为64.07，处于中 性偏强区域，尚未达到超买水平，仍有上升空间。金价2025年以来一直保持稳健上升通道，近期更形成了一个短期上升旗形整理，这通常被视为看涨延续形 态。 金价本周开盘后强势上扬，美盘上破3386早盘分析作废，亚盘金价两次试探3350无法下破以失败告终，美盘金价突破3386后一直处于高位交投。现在小时级 盘面来看，这种碎阳慢涨上方看不到滞涨信号，现在关键618破位，秦氏金升是认为可以去依靠3386此位置看金价继续上行。上方压制先关注3436的阻力 位，下方首要关注3386与3350的两个支撑位，稳健操作思路是建议等待金价回调3386后以5个保护去看金价延续涨势的情况。在周四凌晨的利率决议之前保 持此思路。中线思路老秦建议是等待利率决议公布之后，也就是后半周我们再根据具体走势去调整思路对待。 周二（5月6日）北 ...