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DLSM:美联储装修风波持续发酵 市场对9月降息预期会否急剧分化?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-25 11:53
对于广大投资者来说,在美联储9月会议之前,如何解读美联储的言辞和政策动向,将是决定投资策略 的关键。许多投资者开始关注美联储官员的讲话,以捕捉可能的降息信号,但与此市场情绪的多变性也 让不少投资者感到困惑。 市场还在紧密关注全球经济形势对美联储决策的潜在影响。当前,全球经济的不确定性较大,不仅是美 国国内经济的变化,还有全球贸易摩擦、能源价格波动等因素,这些都可能影响美联储对未来经济形势 的评估,进而对其货币政策产生深远影响。综合来看,美联储是否在9月降息,已经不仅仅是一个单纯 的利率决策问题,而是反映全球经济趋势、市场预期以及美联储内部分歧的多重因素。 随着9月会议日益临近,市场对于美联储货币政策走向的分歧愈加明显。部分投资者认为,由于美国经 济已经出现放缓迹象,美联储降息的时机已经成熟。根据一些经济学家的分析,美国劳动力市场的强劲 表现和消费者信心的回升可能为降息提供了充足的空间。另一部分投资者则认为,美联储过早地降息可 能会导致金融市场过热,反而会激发通胀的复苏。美联储在过去几次的加息中已经取得了抑制通胀的成 效,因此,在通胀尚未完全控制的情况下,降息的风险可能过大。 在这种背景下,美联储的每一次发言、 ...
中叶私募:非农数据影响美股,黄金白银市场波动
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-25 07:19
首先,非农数据对美股市场的影响是直接且迅速的。非农就业人数的增加通常被视为经济健康的信号,因为这表明有 更多的美国人找到了工作,消费能力增强,企业盈利预期提高。在这种情况下,投资者往往会增加对股市的投资,推 动股市上涨。相反,如果非农数据不及预期,市场可能会担心经济增长放缓,导致股市下跌。 中叶私募:非农数据影响美股,黄金白银市场波动 非农数据,即美国非农就业人数报告,是全球金融市场最为关注的经济指标之一。它不仅反映了美国就业市场的状 况,也是美联储制定货币政策的重要依据。每当非农数据公布时,美股市场、黄金和白银等贵金属市场都会受到显著 影响,波动加剧。本文将深入分析非农数据对这些市场的具体影响,并探讨投资者应如何调整策略以应对市场变化。 此外,非农数据还可能影响美联储的利率决策,进而对股市产生间接影响。对于黄金和白银市场而言,非农数据的影 响则更为复杂。一方面,强劲的非农数据可能会提高市场对美联储加息的预期,从而增加持有美元资产的吸引力,减 少对黄金和白银等非生息资产的需求,导致金银价格下跌。另一方面,如果非农数据不佳,可能会引发市场对经济前 景的担忧,增加避险需求,从而推高金银价格。此外,金银价格还受到美 ...
特朗普突访美联储 美元需筑“更高底部”
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-25 02:56
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around President Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve, where he expressed a strong desire for interest rate cuts, indicating a potential influence on future monetary policy decisions [1][2]. - Trump's visit comes just before a crucial two-day interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve, with market expectations leaning towards maintaining the current benchmark rate of 4.25%-4.50% [2]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, reported at 97.57 with a rise of 0.09%, indicating a potential recovery from previous declines [1]. Group 2 - Trump's comments during the visit suggest a continued push for lower borrowing costs to stimulate economic growth, which he believes will benefit American businesses and consumers [2]. - Despite his previous criticisms of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, Trump's tone during this visit appeared more conciliatory, opting for public appeals rather than direct pressure [2]. - The technical analysis of the dollar index indicates a fragile recovery, with key resistance levels at 98.400 and support at 96.377, suggesting that the index's future movements will be closely watched [3].
五矿期货贵金属日报-20250725
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 00:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. labor market remains resilient as the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19, 2025, was 217,000, lower than the expected 226,000 and the previous value of 221,000. - Despite Powell completing his remaining term, under Trump's strong intervention, the Fed's monetary policy will gradually shift to a more accommodative stance. Given that international silver prices tend to perform strongly when the Fed's stance is dovish, the current precious metals strategy recommends maintaining a bullish outlook, with a focus on long opportunities in silver. The reference trading range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9095 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Precious Metals Prices**: Shanghai Gold (Au) dropped 0.78% to 778.08 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) fell 0.55% to 9369.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold declined 0.16% to 3368.10 dollars/ounce, while COMEX Silver rose 0.27% to 39.33 dollars/ounce [2]. - **Other Market Indicators**: The U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.43%, and the U.S. Dollar Index was at 97.47. Among global stock indices, the Dow Jones Index decreased by 0.70%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.07%, the NASDAQ Index rose by 0.18%, the London FTSE 100 climbed 0.85%, and the Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index advanced 1.59% [2][4]. 3.2 Key Data of Gold and Silver - **Gold Data**: COMEX Gold's closing price (active contract) dropped 0.77% to 3371.30 dollars/ounce, with a 19.07% decline in trading volume to 20.67 million lots, and a 1.22% increase in open interest to 44.85 million lots. SHFE Gold's closing price (active contract) decreased 1.79% to 778.74 yuan/gram, trading volume rose 17.55% to 43.78 million lots, and open interest fell 3.92% to 42.44 million lots. The inventory increased 1.74% to 29.36 tons, and the settled funds outflow was 5.64% to 52.875 billion yuan [6]. - **Silver Data**: COMEX Silver's closing price (active contract) fell 0.59% to 39.29 dollars/ounce, open interest (CFTC latest reporting period: weekly) increased 5.33% to 17.15 million lots, and inventory decreased 0.08% to 15483 tons. SHFE Silver's closing price (active contract) dropped 1.12% to 9386.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume rose 19.57% to 159.93 million lots, and open interest fell 3.04% to 96.46 million lots. The inventory increased 0.02% to 1188.72 tons, and the settled funds outflow was 4.12% to 24.444 billion yuan [6]. 3.3 Price - Related Charts and Analysis - **Gold**: There are multiple charts showing the relationship between COMEX Gold price and the U.S. Dollar Index, real interest rates, volume, open interest, and the near - far month structure of COMEX Gold and Shanghai Gold, as well as the price difference between London Gold and COMEX Gold, and Au(T + D) and Shanghai Gold [8][11][16][18]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, there are charts depicting the relationship between COMEX Silver price and volume, open interest, the near - far month structure of COMEX Silver and Shanghai Silver, and the price difference between London Silver and COMEX Silver, and Ag(T + D) and Shanghai Silver [27][29][31]. 3.4 Fund Position and Price Relationship - There are charts showing the relationship between the net long positions of COMEX Gold and Silver managed funds and their prices, indicating the influence of fund positions on precious metals prices [40]. 3.5 ETF Holdings - The total holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 2.29 tons to 957.09 tons, and the total holdings of the SLV Silver ETF remained unchanged at 15207.82 tons [4]. 3.6 Internal - External Price Difference - **Gold**: On July 24, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was 0.74 yuan/gram (3.23 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 1.64 yuan/gram (7.12 dollars/ounce). - **Silver**: The SHFE - COMEX price difference was 346.62 yuan/kilogram (1.51 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 372.20 yuan/kilogram (1.62 dollars/ounce) [50].
AMRO首席经济学家答21:东盟+3根据比较优势整合应对冲击
Group 1 - The ASEAN+3 region's economic growth is projected to be 3.8% in 2023 and 3.6% in 2026, reflecting a downward adjustment due to challenges posed by US tariff policies [1][2] - The region is characterized by high trade dependency, with ASEAN countries' total trade amounting to approximately 94% of their nominal GDP, and nearly 50% for the ASEAN+3 region [2] - Central banks in the ASEAN+3 region have shown flexibility in monetary policy, with over half having implemented easing measures in response to tariff risks, indicating potential for further support [4][6] Group 2 - Key risks for the ASEAN+3 region include rising US tariffs, changes in global financial conditions, and volatility in commodity prices, particularly oil [3] - The region's central banks are expected to maintain cautious approaches due to inflation targeting and the need to manage capital flows, which could limit their ability to ease policies further [6][7] - Malaysia's recent interest rate cuts are seen as preemptive measures to address external uncertainties, while Vietnam is focusing on attracting foreign direct investment and upgrading its industrial structure for long-term resilience [7]
能源及有色行业2025下半年投资策略:透视商品周期,看好下游高质量发展驱动
Donghai Securities· 2025-07-23 09:30
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The complexity,产业链, and price trends of commodities are analyzed, and the relationship between commodity prices and various economic factors is explored [6][10][14]. - The impact of geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand balance, and economic cycles on oil prices is discussed, and future oil price trends are predicted [42][58]. - The supply - demand situation, price trends, and influencing factors of various commodities such as power coal, natural gas, aluminum, and copper are analyzed [98][106][120][166]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Commodity Classification and Characteristics - Commodities are divided into physical and non - physical commodities, including energy, metals, agriculture, and financial rights [5]. - Commodities have complexity,产业链 characteristics, and price trends related to economic cycles, with factors such as supply - demand, geopolitics, and interest rates affecting prices [6][10]. Commodity Prices and Economic Factors - Gold has long - term value - preservation functions, and the price CAGR of some resources increased from 2020 - 2024 due to various factors [14]. - The price trends of commodities are related to GDP, inflation, and economic cycles, with industrial commodities showing higher cycle fluctuations than agricultural products [14][19]. - The price cycles of commodities have characteristics such as turning points, duration of prosperity and recession, and are affected by factors like supply shocks and technological progress [24]. Oil Price Analysis - The relationship between oil prices and factors such as the Fed's interest rate, U.S. Treasury yields, inventory, and geopolitics is analyzed [10][33][42]. - Future oil price trends are predicted based on supply - demand balance, geopolitical conflicts, and economic cycles, with oil prices expected to be relatively strong in 2024 and oscillate downward in 2025 [42]. Other Commodity Analysis - Power coal supply - demand is relatively balanced, with prices expected to remain low due to sufficient inventory [98][102]. - Domestic natural gas demand is stable, with supply exceeding demand in some periods, and prices are expected to decline [106][109]. - Aluminum prices are related to PMI, GDP, and CPI, and the supply - demand situation, cost, and profit of the aluminum industry are analyzed [120][131][151]. - Copper prices are affected by factors such as Fed's interest rate policy, supply - demand, and geopolitics, and are expected to be in the range of $9500 - 12000/ton [166][173].
大摩重磅预测:美联储今年不降息,恐延至2026年3月
智通财经网· 2025-07-23 08:24
Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will maintain its assessment of the economy as growing at a "solid pace," with a robust labor market and slightly elevated inflation [2][3]. Economic Assessment - The Federal Reserve is expected to emphasize the risks associated with its dual mandate of employment and inflation [2]. - Recent indicators show that U.S. economic activity continues to grow steadily, with a low unemployment rate and a slight increase in inflation [2]. - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 2.2% annualized growth rate for Q2 GDP, while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts 2.4% and the New York Fed's Nowcast model estimates 1.7% [2]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market remains in good condition, with employment growth slowing but the unemployment rate unchanged compared to 12 months ago [2][11]. - Employment growth is expected to slow from an average of 130,000 jobs per month in the first half of 2025 to about 50,000 jobs per month in 2026 [11]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - Inflation is described as "slightly high," with June's CPI report reflecting new price pressures from tariffs [2][5]. - Morgan Stanley anticipates that tariffs will lead to a rise in overall and core PCE price indices, reaching 3.0% and 3.2% respectively by 2025 [5]. - Core PCE inflation is expected to peak at an annualized rate of 4.1% by the end of Q3 2025 before declining [5]. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to keep the target federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% until March 2026, with potential rate cuts of 25 basis points at subsequent meetings [11]. - Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to delay rate cuts but suggests that the magnitude of cuts may exceed market expectations [11]. Trade and Economic Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies continues to pose risks to the Fed's dual mandate [4]. - Fed Chair Powell is expected to acknowledge the pressures from tariffs and emphasize the ongoing uncertainty in trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies [4].
ATFX:大涨两日,黄金距离历史最高点仅余60美元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-23 08:24
Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged significantly in the past two trading days, driven primarily by a decline in the US dollar index, which is influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the macroeconomic outlook of the United States [1][2] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - COMEX gold prices increased by 1.55% and 1.1%, reaching a high of $3451, while London gold rose by 1.43% and 0.95%, peaking at $3439 [1] - The current prices are close to historical highs, with COMEX gold just $58.9 away from its peak of $3509.9 and London gold $60 away from its peak of $3499 [1] - If the upward momentum continues, gold may reach new historical highs within the month [1] Group 2: Impact of US Monetary Policy - President Trump has expressed strong dissatisfaction with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, suggesting that Powell may soon resign, which shocked the market and led to a drop in the dollar index [1] - If a new chairman is appointed, it is likely that monetary policy will align with Trump's preferences, potentially leading to significant interest rate cuts [2] - Trump has indicated that high interest rates negatively affect the housing market and has suggested a reduction of rates by 300 basis points or more, which could exacerbate inflation issues in the US [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold - From a structural perspective, gold is in a long-term bullish trend, but there are signs of a potential top formation over the past three months [4] - The latest wave of price increase reached a peak of $3438, which is close to historical highs, indicating strong support at the previous wave's 0.618 retracement level [4] - Resistance levels are identified between $3499 and $3425, and failure to break through this range could lead to a price reversal [4]
五矿期货贵金属日报-20250723
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 01:35
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The non - response from Fed Chair Powell to the accusations from the Trump team and the statements from Fed Governor Bowman suggest that even if Powell completes his remaining term, Fed monetary policy will gradually turn dovish under Trump's strong intervention, which is a significant positive factor for international silver prices. The current precious metals strategy recommends maintaining a long - position mindset. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9095 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - **Precious Metals Prices**: Shanghai Gold rose 0.91% to 792.94 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 0.75% to 9453.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold fell 0.06% to 3441.80 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver rose 0.28% to 39.67 dollars/ounce. Other precious metals prices also showed various changes, such as Au(T + D) rising 0.39% to 780.00 yuan/gram, Ag(T + D) rising 1.54% to 9368.00 yuan/kilogram [2][4]. - **Other Market Indicators**: The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.35%, the dollar index was 97.39. Stock indices like the Dow Jones Index rose 0.40%, the S&P 500 rose 0.06%, while the Nasdaq Index fell 0.39% [2]. Gold and Silver Key Data Summary - **Gold**: In multiple markets (COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, etc.), gold prices, trading volumes, and open interests generally showed an upward trend. For example, COMEX gold's closing price rose 0.99%, trading volume rose 17.61%, and open interest rose 1.22% [6]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, silver prices, trading volumes, and open interests in different markets mostly increased. For instance, COMEX silver's closing price rose 1.07%, trading volume rose 40.57% in SHFE, and open interest rose 5.33% in COMEX [6]. Market Outlook - The situation regarding the accusations against the Trump team and the Fed's stance on independence and monetary policy is driving the strong performance of precious metals prices. The Fed's potential shift to a dovish monetary policy is expected to benefit international silver prices [2][3]. Charts and Data Analysis - There are numerous charts showing the relationships between precious metals prices and various factors such as the dollar index, real interest rates, trading volumes, open interests, and near - far month structures. These charts help in analyzing the market trends and price movements of precious metals [8][11][16]. - The report also provides data on the internal - external price differences of gold and silver, including SHFE - COMEX and SGE - LBMA price differences, which are important for understanding the cross - market price relationships of precious metals [50].
美债收益率曲线平陡变化规律分析
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-07-22 23:34
Group A: Historical Review - The change in the bond yield curve's steepness is different from unilateral changes in bond yields, as it measures the relative changes in yields of bonds with different maturities [2] - Historical periods of flattening in the U.S. Treasury yield curve include April 1988 to 1989, October 1992 to December 1994, August 2003 to June 2006, December 2013 to December 2018, and March 2021 to March 2023, often corresponding with the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycles [2][3] - The flattening of the yield curve typically occurs before the Federal Reserve begins raising rates, while the end of the flattening often coincides with or slightly precedes the end of rate hikes [3] Group B: Yield Curve Dynamics - During rate hike cycles, short-term Treasury yields rise, and when long-term yields also increase, the short-term yields tend to rise more significantly, contributing to the flattening of the yield curve [3][17] - The behavior of long-term yields can vary, sometimes showing volatility or decline, which can lead to a flattening of the curve due to differing influences on short and long-term rates [3][4] - The 2-year Treasury yield closely follows the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, while the 10-year yield reflects broader macroeconomic conditions and inflation expectations [4][17] Group C: Steepening of the Yield Curve - Historical periods of steepening in the U.S. Treasury yield curve include March 1989 to September 1992, May 2000 to August 2003, February 2007 to December 2009, and January 2019 to April 2021, typically aligning with Federal Reserve rate cut cycles [13][15] - The onset of steepening often occurs before the actual rate cuts begin, indicating market anticipation of monetary policy changes [13][15] - In rate cut cycles, both short and long-term yields generally decline, but short-term yields tend to decrease more significantly, contributing to the steepening of the yield curve [13][17] Group D: Economic and Monetary Policy Interactions - The changes in the yield curve are closely linked to monetary policy and economic cycles, with flattening periods usually corresponding to rate hike cycles and steepening periods to rate cut cycles [17] - Short-term yields play a dominant role in shaping the yield curve during these cycles, with their movements significantly influencing the overall curve dynamics [17] - Discrepancies between economic cycles and monetary policy cycles can lead to divergent movements in long-term yields, especially during transitional periods between rate changes [17]