"白银处于2012年以来的最高水平，这当然引人关注，但白银是出了名的反复无常，它完全有能力暴涨 暴跌，"O'Connell说。"这不一定是一次虚假突破，但它现在已经严重超买，当白银出现这种情况时， 应一如既往地谨慎对待。" 根据道琼斯市场数据，Comex 7月交割的白银期货周四收于每盎司35.81美元，这是主力合约自2012年2 月28日以来的最高收盘价。今年迄今，白银价格已累计上涨约22%。 Sprott Asset Management的高级投资组合经理兼首席投资官Maria Smirnova在周四表示："这次突破已经 酝酿了一段时间，因为白银在近几个月曾数次尝试突破35美元大关，所以这次成功意义重大。如果这次 技术性突破能催化实物投资者的买盘，那么白银价格可能很快被推得更高，白银市场交投清淡，不需要 太大的购买活动就能推高价格。" 在白银价格飙升的同时，黄金价格在当天的交易中却录得下跌。不过，黄金今年迄今近28%的涨幅仍然 超过了白银。 然而，金银比已降至94附近。BullionVault研究总监Adrian Ash指出，与黄金在4月底触及当前历史高点 3500美元时所见的后疫情时期高点（超过100）相 ...

Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced narrow fluctuations, while the ChiNext Index saw reduced trading volume. Silver concept stocks surged, with companies like Hunan Silver and Silver Nonferrous hitting the daily limit. Computing power concept stocks continued to rebound, with Huamai Technology and Nanling Technology also reaching the limit. Agricultural chemical stocks remained strong, with Su Li Co., Mei Bang Co., and Changqing Co. hitting the daily limit. In contrast, stablecoin concept stocks faced adjustments, with Xiongdi Technology dropping over 10% [1]. Silver Sector - The silver sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Zhongrun Resources and Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit. Comex July silver futures rose by 4% to $36.03 per ounce, reaching a peak of $36.27, the highest level since February 2012. Over the past 12 months, gold has increased by 42%, while silver's rise was approximately 15%, indicating a lag [4][5]. - The gold-silver ratio, which measures the price relationship between gold and silver, suggests that silver may be undervalued when the ratio approaches its upper historical range [5]. - From late May, silver's upward momentum has been building, with expectations that the gold-silver ratio may revert to pre-tariff levels. The demand for industrial silver is projected to rise due to the growth in photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors, with silver usage in hybrid and electric vehicles increasing by 21% and 71%, respectively [6]. Agricultural Chemicals - The computing power sector remained active, with Su Li Co. achieving two consecutive daily limits, and other companies like Mei Bang Co. and Changqing Co. also hitting the limit. A recent explosion at a chemical plant in Shandong related to the production of chlorantraniliprole intermediates has raised concerns [7][9]. - The explosion is expected to lead to price increases for intermediates like K-amine, and stricter regulations on nitration processes in the agricultural chemical industry. The industry is gradually returning to rationality, with high-priced inventory being depleted and procurement demand recovering, although supply-side pressures persist [9]. Solid-State Batteries - The solid-state battery sector showed strong performance, with companies like Dexin Technology and Jinying Co. hitting the daily limit. The market for solid-state batteries is projected to open up by 2030, with significant demand for solid electrolytes and lithium sulfide, indicating a market space exceeding 210 billion yuan [10][12]. - The development of solid-state batteries is expected to drive significant demand for lithium sulfide, with upstream production capacity facing notable shortages, which could hinder cost reductions [12].

基本面： 周五（6月6日）亚市早盘，现货白银窄幅震荡，美联储政策与通胀风险的博弈特朗普降息呼声与美联储的谨慎态度特朗普近期多次公开呼吁美联储主席鲍威 尔降低借贷成本，称高利率阻碍了经济增长。然而，美联储内部对降息的态度分歧明显。美联储理事库格勒和堪萨斯城联储主席施密德均表示，当前通胀风 险高于劳动力市场放缓的风险，倾向于维持当前4.25%-4.50%的政策利率不变。施密德尤其担忧关税可能重新点燃通胀，价格上涨压力或在未来数月显现。 相比之下，美联储主席鲍威尔则强调就业与通胀风险并存，主张在数据驱动下保持政策灵活性。 通胀预期与黄金的吸引力市场对未来通胀的预期正在升温。五年期和十年期美国通胀保值债券（TIPS）盈亏平衡收益率分别报2.332%和2.298%，表明市场 预计未来十年平均年通胀率约为2.3%。与此同时，5月消费者物价指数（CPI）预计将显示通胀加速，部分源于关税效应的显现。在通胀压力下，黄金作为 抗通胀资产的吸引力可能进一步增强，尤其是在美联储若推迟降息的情况下，低利率环境将为金价提供支撑。 白银与金银比的异军突起白银价格创13年新高与黄金的回落形成对比，现货白银周四跳涨3.3%，报35.61美元， ...

Group 1 - The rapid contraction of the gold-silver ratio may not be sustainable, with market volatility driven by tariff negotiations and bond market changes [1] - The gold-silver ratio has significantly adjusted, potentially influenced by the recent US-China leaders' call, but the ultimate trend may be more related to liquidity conditions [2] - Short-term drivers for gold and silver are unclear, with geopolitical risks and US tariff policies affecting market sentiment [3] Group 2 - The recent rise in precious metals is supported by both technical momentum and fundamental improvements in the overall metals market, with strong physical silver demand from India and recovering platinum demand from China [4] - Market expectations for at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year have been bolstered by an unexpected rise in initial jobless claims [4] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations remains, with potential for increased safe-haven demand for gold if substantial progress is not made [3]

一、行情 三、机构解读 1）金银比是指黄金与白银的价格比值，是衡量白银相对黄金价格高低的重要指标之一。当金银比靠近其长期运行的 区间上沿时，往往意味着银价相对黄金被低估。 自5月下旬开始，随着铂钯的试探性补涨，白银的上涨动能逐渐累积。短线突破式拉涨动能较大，金银比可能回落至 对等关税前的平台。（中信期货） 2）随着光伏、新能源汽车与环氧乙烷催化剂行业持续发展，工业用银消耗量将作为白银需求上升的核心动力持续增 长；银浆是光伏电池制作中不可缺少的辅料，混动汽车与纯电汽车的单位白银用量较传统汽车分别提升了21%和 71%。 6月6日，白银期现货大涨，带动A股湖南白银、白银有色等涨停。 | 股票名称 | 最新价 = | 涨跌幅 = | 涨停时间 = | 换手率 = | 流通市值 = | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 湖南白银 002716.SZ | 3.89 | +9.89% | 09:35:21 | 6.03% | 85.99 7, | | 白银有色 | 3.19 | +10.00% | 09:48:59 | 2.64% | 236.21亿 | | 601212.S ...

金银比现报95.41，为4月3日以来新低。 ...

端午假期期间，受美元走弱、地缘冲突加剧和美国关税政策反复等因素影响，外盘贵金属市场率先掀起 一波避险潮。6月3日国内期市开盘后，沪金、沪银延续端午节前的强势表现，其中沪银期货主力合约尤 为亮眼，单日大幅上涨2.85%，至8456元／千克，涨幅显著超越沪金，领涨贵金属板块。 贵金属避险属性凸显 当地时间6月3日，美国白宫发表声明称，美国总统特朗普宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从 25%提高至50%，该关税政策自美国东部时间2025年6月4日凌晨00时01分起生效。欧盟称若谈判未果， 针对美国的反制措施最迟将于7月14日生效；日本则明确表示无意在关税问题上让步；中美贸易摩擦可 能升级，美方指控中方违反日内瓦经贸会谈共识，中国商务部回应称，美方新增AI芯片管制、EDA软 件禁售等措施严重破坏既有协议。 当前，金银比仍维持在100左右的历史高位，反映出相对于黄金价格，白银价格或被显著低估。从资产 配置逻辑来看，避险情绪主导的黄金价格阶段性上涨结束后，资金往往转向估值更低、价格弹性更高的 白银以捕捉补涨机会。美联储政策分歧加剧美元指数波动，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比暗示15个月内可能 大幅降息，低利率预期进一步推动资 ...

李冈峰 欧洲天然资源基金 Commodity Discovery 特约分析师 这是一个主要从美国每周的CFTC数据公布基金(Managed Positions)在当地期货市场的各种部署，继而反映 现时市场对贵金属的情绪和对短/中期的一个价格判断。美国每周五收市后公布的CFTC数据，记录日为刚过 去的周二(如果过去一周原本工作日是假日的话数据出炉会延期)。 概要 根据巴塞尔协议III（Basel III），从今年2025年7月1号开始，美国银行所持有的实金可被视为其 储备需求中的一级资产，相当于现金和美国国债——这个是绝对利好金价的信号——连玩财技玩 金融最厉害的美国，也不得不承认黄金的可靠性跟现金和国债一模一样。这意味着，将来更多基 金会视黄金为比国债和美元更稳健的定海神针。预期美国银行或会有新一轮买金条热潮。 至周五(29号)的金价/北美金矿股比率为 17.11X，较22号的17.39X跌1.6%，今年累跌10.6%。2024 年累升16.5%。2023年全年累积上升了13.2% (2022年+6.4%)，代表矿业股最少连续两年回报跑输 实金。且看今年金矿股票能否有突破。 LSEG Workspace用户可 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in international gold prices due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating tariff policies, with gold reaching a near 20-day high of $3417.8 per ounce [2] - The increase in gold prices has also led to a rise in jewelry gold prices, with Chow Tai Fook adjusting its gold jewelry price to 1020 yuan per gram, up by 22 yuan from the previous day [2] - The gold-silver ratio has experienced substantial fluctuations, reaching a five-year high, indicating potential market corrections in the future [2][4] Group 2 - The rise in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including the increase in U.S. import tariffs on steel and aluminum, which has heightened global economic uncertainty [3] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for May showed a decline in new import orders, reflecting concerns over supply chain stability, further driving investors towards gold as a safe haven [3][7] - Silver prices have outperformed gold, with a 5.31% increase compared to gold's 2.8%, driven by the extreme gold-silver ratio and market sentiment [3][4] Group 3 - As of June 3, the gold-silver ratio reached 1:100, indicating that one ounce of gold can be exchanged for 100 ounces of silver, significantly higher than the historical average of 53-66 ounces [4] - This extreme ratio suggests that either silver is severely undervalued or gold is overvalued, with a high probability of mean reversion in the medium to long term [4] - Historical data indicates that when the gold-silver ratio exceeds 80, there is a 70% chance of silver prices rising, targeting a ratio range of 60-70 ounces [4] Group 4 - The volatility of silver is greater due to its smaller market size compared to gold, meaning that equal capital inflows can lead to larger price movements in silver [5] - The improvement in China's manufacturing PMI indicates a gradual economic recovery, which is expected to boost industrial demand for silver, as it is widely used in various sectors [5] - The anticipated economic recovery is likely to increase silver demand, further supporting its price [5] Group 5 - The U.S. dollar index fell to 98.86 on June 3, which reduced the holding cost of gold and contributed to its price increase [6] - The ongoing uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies and high fiscal deficits has shaken investor confidence in dollar assets, leading to a potential decline in the dollar's value [6] - The downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's has heightened concerns over the sustainability of the fiscal deficit, prompting capital outflows from dollar assets [6] Group 6 - The ISM manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 48.5, indicating a contraction in U.S. manufacturing activity for three consecutive months, which adds pressure to the dollar index [7] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates, with a 99.1% probability of no rate change in June, reflecting cautious monetary policy amid economic weakness [7] - The combination of weak manufacturing data and inflation expectations suggests limited potential for rate cuts in the near term, impacting gold prices [7] Group 7 - The future trajectory of gold prices will be influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly if rate cuts are implemented, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [8] - Geopolitical tensions and trade disputes are expected to further elevate gold's appeal as a safe haven asset, potentially driving prices higher [8] - However, gold prices may face resistance at previous highs around $3400-$3450 per ounce, and any easing of trade tensions could lead to price corrections [9]

李冈峰 欧洲天然资源基金 Commodity Discovery 特约分析师 这是一个主要从美国每周的CFTC数据公布基金(Managed Positions)在当地期货市场的各种部署，继而反映 现时市场对贵金属的情绪和对短/中期的一个价格判断。美国每周五收市后公布的CFTC数据，记录日为刚过 去的周二(如果过去一周原本工作日是假日的话数据出炉会延期)。 | 概要 | | --- | | 市场认为联储还会在7月减息的机率从四周前的76.4%跌至上周五的25.2%。9月息率维持不变的几 | | 率亦从6.2%升到43.8%。 | 美国评级被下调后，美国债券拍卖行清冷清，债券息率继续向上(价格下跌)。换作以前的情况，如 果美国经济衰退，会出现美股下跌，但美汇及美债受惠资金涌入而上升(这也是为什么笔者原本不 敢太过看好金价的原因，因为美国经济衰退会导致美汇强势)；不过由于近期曾出现美股债汇三杀 的现象，以前的投资常识可能有所改变，因此大家要随时做好两手准备。但以目前情况来看，金 价依然强势。 LSEG Workspace用户可以搜寻CFTC寻找最新数据： | | | COMEX黄金 | | COMEX白银 | | ...