人民币持续走强！ 12月15日，在岸人民币兑美元汇率升至7.05，达2024年10月8日以来的最强水平。截至发稿，报7.0505。 澳新银行驻新加坡亚洲研究主管Khoon Goh预计，人民币兑美元汇率将在2026年保持温和升值，年末预 计将升至6.95一线。 德意志银行预计，到2026年底，人民币兑美元汇率将升值至6.7，并在2027年底进一步升至6.5。 摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强预计，美元兑人民币汇率可能在2026年底触及7.05，在2027年底触 及6.95。 （文章来源：中国基金报） 离岸人民币兑美元汇率再度升破7.05，创2024年10月3日以来新高。截至发稿，报7.04691。 12月15日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人 民币7.0656元，较上个交易日调贬18个基点。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，人民币走势偏强会提振资本市场信心，也会吸引更多海外资金流入 国内资本市场，并与汇市走强形成良性联动。他认为短期内人民币还会处于偏强运行状态，后续要重点 关注美元走势、人民币中间价调控力度，以及国内稳增长政策的力度和节奏。 展望后续，外资机构和 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 新华财经上海12月15日电（葛佳明）近期，受美元走弱等因素印象，人民币表现强势。截至12月15日发稿，在岸人民币兑美元汇率升至7.0516，创2024年10 月8日以来新高。 中国外汇交易中心公布数据显示，12月12日当周三大人民币汇率指数多数下跌，CFETS人民币汇率指数报97.71，按周涨0.06；BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数 报104.28，按周跌0.02；SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数报92.19，按周跌0.08。 | 指数名称 | 当日指数 | | --- | --- | | CFETS人民币汇率指数 | 97.71 | | BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数 | 104.28 | | SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数 | 92.19 | 美元指数上周呈现先涨后跌走势，延续此前的走弱态势，为连续第三周收跌，周初在美联储将"鹰派降息"的预期下美元小幅走高，但随后市场认为美联储主 席鲍威尔"不够鹰"，推动美元指数加速回落。非美货币在美元整体回落的背景下多数收涨：瑞士银行上周按兵不动，瑞郎受此支撑上周大幅收涨1.13%；欧 元则受到鹰派票委言论的支撑最 ...

来源：华泰睿思 目前市场下行空间可控但上行胜率尚未打开。港股情绪指标依然处于悲观区间，对应磨底阶段，情绪指 数走势与2024年11月类似。彼时情绪指标进入恐慌区间后，市场在2025年初迎来明显反弹，春节前后 DeepSeek催化下斜率放大。未来行情催化因素可能来自以下三点预期差：1）人民币升值：升值共识一 旦形成，资本流动或发生重要改变，可以类比今年欧洲市场；2）企业出海：市场依然担忧汇率升值和 出口高基数的影响，明年上半年中美关系依然处于温和期，出口韧性存在预期差；3）国内科技进展突 破，走出独立路径等。配置层面，短期关注资金面供需改善后的弹性品种如科技和医药，中期依然建议 成长+顺周期均衡，切换时间在二季度左右。全年维度看，个股相关性下降，去伪存真、自下而上的α 机会更加重要。 核心观点 回顾：港股表现弱于A股，南向疲软、情绪基数和行业分化是主因 近期投资者普遍感受到港股表现相对疲软。10月至今MSCI香港/沪深300/恒生指数/纳斯达克金龙指数涨 跌幅分别为2.2%/-0.7%/-3.3%/-10.3%（均以港币计价），市场表现的表观差异并不如体感大。归因来 看： 1）10月初至今，作为天然的控制个股基 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：华泰证券策略研究） 目前市场下行空间可控但上行胜率尚未打开。港股情绪指标依然处于悲观区间，对应磨底阶段，情绪指 数走势与2024年11月类似。彼时情绪指标进入恐慌区间后，市场在2025年初迎来明显反弹，春节前后 DeepSeek催化下斜率放大。未来行情催化因素可能来自以下三点预期差：1）人民币升值：升值共识一 旦形成，资本流动或发生重要改变，可以类比今年欧洲市场；2）企业出海：市场依然担忧汇率升值和 出口高基数的影响，明年上半年中美关系依然处于温和期，出口韧性存在预期差；3）国内科技进展突 破，走出独立路径等。配置层面，短期关注资金面供需改善后的弹性品种如科技和医药，中期依然建议 成长+顺周期均衡，切换时间在二季度左右。全年维度看，个股相关性下降，去伪存真、自下而上的α 机会更加重要。 回顾：港股表现弱于A股，南向疲软、情绪基数和行业分化是主因 近期投资者普遍感受到港股表现相对疲软。10月至今MSCI香港/沪深300/恒生指数/纳斯达克金龙指数涨 跌幅分别为2.2%/-0.7%/-3.3%/-10.3%（均以港币计价），市场表现的表观差异并不如体感大。归因来 看： 1）10月初至今，作 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% on December 10, 2025, marking the third consecutive rate cut since September and the sixth in the current cycle [1] - The decision reflects internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, dissatisfaction from the White House, and potential global market repercussions, raising questions about whether the rate cut is a stabilizing measure or a warning signal of underlying risks [3][4] - The Fed's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability is at play, with Chairman Powell indicating challenges in the current economic landscape, where inflation risks are rising while employment risks are declining [4] Group 2 - The median forecast for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation is 2.9% for this year and 2.4% for next year, still above the long-term target of 2% [6] - Powell attributed high inflation to the one-time price increases from tariffs imposed by the previous administration, providing theoretical support for the rate cut as it suggests that inflation pressure is not due to excessive money supply [6] - The labor market signals, including slowing job growth and rising unemployment, prompted the Fed to lower financing costs to stimulate investment and consumer spending, aiming to stabilize employment [8] Group 3 - The recent meeting saw the highest number of dissenting votes since September 2019, indicating intense debate within the Fed regarding the adequacy of the rate cut [10] - Following the rate cut, U.S. stock indices responded positively, with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, Nasdaq up 0.33%, and S&P 500 up 0.67% [10] - Gold and silver prices rose sharply, with COMEX gold futures increasing by 0.52% and spot silver rising by 2%, while the U.S. dollar index fell below 99 [12] Group 4 - The White House expressed dissatisfaction with the rate cut, with President Trump criticizing the 25 basis point reduction as insufficient, suggesting it could have been doubled [12][14] - Trump believes low interest rates are crucial for economic growth, while Powell's policies are seen as overly rigid, highlighting the tension between political pressure and independent monetary policy [14] - The Fed's decision to maintain a 25 basis point cut can be viewed as a defense of its independence against political influence [14] Group 5 - The Fed's rate policy impacts global capital flows, with a weaker dollar leading to an appreciation of the Chinese yuan, which rose by 67 basis points to 7.0686 against the dollar [16] - For companies, lower financing costs from the rate cut benefit those with dollar-denominated debt, easing financial pressure and allowing for expansion or debt repayment [18] - Importing companies may benefit from lower costs due to a weaker dollar, while exporting companies, particularly in labor-intensive sectors, may face challenges due to increased prices in international markets [18] Group 6 - Individuals may experience reduced yields on dollar deposits and investment products, necessitating adjustments in asset allocation [20] - The appreciation of the yuan lowers costs for studying abroad, traveling, and shopping, potentially saving families significant amounts on tuition [20] - The Fed's rate cut may attract international capital to emerging markets, with China's bond and stock markets likely to see increased inflows [20][22] Group 7 - The interplay between the Fed's internal divisions, political pressures from the White House, and global market reactions indicates that the 25 basis point cut transcends mere monetary policy [23] - This situation reflects the current state of the U.S. economy and serves as a microcosm of the evolving global economic landscape [24]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations. This has prompted banks and financial institutions to promote dollar deposits and investment products, with some offerings showing annualized yields in the "3s" and approaching 4% [3][4]. Group 1: Dollar Deposit Rates - Despite the overall downward trend in dollar deposit rates following the Fed's rate cuts, many institutions are still offering relatively high-yield dollar products. For instance, Bohai Bank offers a 1-year dollar fixed deposit at an annualized rate of 3.10%, while Hengfeng Bank maintains a rate of 3.30% for the same term [5]. - Some city commercial banks have introduced even more attractive rates, with 1-year rates reaching up to 3.9% and minimum deposit amounts as low as $1,000. For example, Xian Bank offers a 1-year rate of 3.98% [6]. - Foreign banks are also promoting competitive short-term rates, with Standard Chartered Bank offering rates up to 3.6% for 1-month and 3-month deposits, and Hang Seng Bank maintaining a 1-month rate of 4% [6]. Group 2: Investment Products - Several wealth management subsidiaries are actively promoting dollar-denominated fixed-income products. ICBC Wealth Management's "Global Add Benefits" product has achieved an annualized yield of 4.97% since its inception, standing out among similar offerings [6]. - Analysts suggest that while the appeal of dollar fixed-income assets remains strong in the short term, future yields may fluctuate with market interest rate adjustments [6]. Group 3: Risks and Market Outlook - Since September, the Fed has cut rates three times, totaling 75 basis points, leading to increased scrutiny on the future trajectory of dollar deposit rates and asset yields. The recent appreciation of the RMB against the dollar is also impacting the actual returns on dollar investments [8]. - Analysts predict a potential "wait-and-see" period for the Fed after the recent rate cut, with expectations of a pause in further actions until early 2026 to assess the economic impact of previous cuts [8]. - The RMB has appreciated by 3.24% against the dollar this year, with a 1.88% increase over the past six months and 0.83% in the last month. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, potentially leading to foreign exchange losses for investors holding dollar assets [8][13].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations, prompting banks to promote dollar deposits and investment products with attractive yields [1] Group 1: Dollar Deposit Rates - Despite a general downward trend in dollar deposit rates, many institutions are still offering relatively high-yield dollar products, with rates remaining above 3% [2] - Chinese banks are maintaining competitive rates, with examples including Bohai Bank offering a 1-year dollar deposit at 3.10% and Hengfeng Bank at 3.30% [2] - Some city commercial banks are providing even higher rates, with 1-year dollar deposits reaching up to 3.9% and shorter terms at 3.7% [2] Group 2: Foreign Bank Promotions - Foreign banks are also promoting attractive short-term dollar deposit rates, with Standard Chartered offering up to 3.6% for 1-month and 3-month deposits [3] - Hang Seng Bank's 1-month dollar deposit rate is at 4%, with other terms also offering competitive rates [3] - Several foreign banks have recently increased their short-term dollar deposit rates, with some as low as a $10 minimum deposit [3] Group 3: Investment Products - Multiple asset management companies are actively promoting dollar-denominated fixed-income products, with ICBC Wealth Management's product achieving an annualized return of 4.97% [3] - Analysts suggest that while the appeal of dollar fixed-income assets remains strong in the short term, future returns may fluctuate with market interest rate adjustments [3] Group 4: Risks from Interest and Exchange Rates - Since September, the Federal Reserve has cut rates three times, totaling 75 basis points, leading to concerns about the future trajectory of dollar deposit rates and asset yields [4] - The continuous appreciation of the RMB against the USD has begun to pressure the actual returns on dollar investments, with the RMB appreciating 3.24% against the USD this year [4] - Analysts predict a potential observation period for the Federal Reserve's policy, with expectations of possible future rate cuts depending on economic indicators [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations [1] - Following the rate cut, banks and financial institutions are intensifying their promotion of USD deposits and investment products, with some offering annualized yields close to 4% [1][2] - Despite attractive yields, industry experts caution investors about the risks of declining rates during the Fed's easing cycle and potential foreign exchange losses due to the appreciation of the RMB [1][4] Group 2 - USD deposit rates are generally on a downward trend, but many institutions are still offering relatively high-yield USD products, with some Chinese banks maintaining rates in the "3% range" [2] - For example, Bohai Bank offers a 1-year USD fixed deposit at an annualized rate of 3.10%, while Hengfeng Bank maintains a 1-year product at 3.30% [2] - Some city commercial banks are offering even higher rates, with 1-year rates reaching up to 3.9% and minimum deposit amounts as low as $1,000 [2] Group 3 - Foreign banks are also promoting competitive short-term USD deposit rates, with Standard Chartered Bank offering rates up to 3.6% for 1-month and 3-month deposits [3] - Investment firms are actively promoting USD fixed-income products, with ICBC Wealth Management's product achieving an annualized yield of 4.97% since its inception [3] - Analysts believe that while the appeal of USD fixed-income assets remains in the short term, future yields may fluctuate with market interest rate adjustments [3][4] Group 4 - Since September, the Federal Reserve has cut rates three times, totaling 75 basis points, leading to increased scrutiny on the future trajectory of USD deposit rates and asset yields [4] - The continuous appreciation of the RMB is exerting pressure on the actual returns of USD investments, with the RMB appreciating 3.24% against the USD this year [4][10] - Analysts predict a potential observation period for the Fed's policy, with expectations of possible rate cuts in mid-2026, depending on inflation and employment data [4]

Group 1 - The core observation is that agricultural products, particularly U.S. soybeans, have become a focal point in the trade dynamics between China and the U.S. following the ceasefire in the trade war [1] - The U.S. has seen a shift in focus towards Europe, Japan, and India, with the previous discussions about "decoupling from Chinese manufacturing" fading away [5] - China's exports have increased by 6% despite a 28% decline in U.S.-China trade volume over the first eleven months of the year, indicating a resilience in China's export capabilities [5] Group 2 - France is seeking to export more agricultural products like brandy and wine to China, while Spain anticipates better access for its agricultural goods in the Chinese market [3] - The establishment of an Amazon smart hub warehouse in Shenzhen signals a commitment to facilitate Chinese exports globally, enhancing the trade relationship [3] - The appreciation of the Chinese yuan post-ceasefire suggests a completed adjustment in China's industrial structure, with a shift towards technology innovation and a transition to a "big consumption era" [5]

12月10日，人民币对美元中间价报7.0753，较前一交易日调升20个基点，这一数据看似微小，却成为人民币进入快速升值周期的又一佐证。 往前追溯，12 月 3 日人民币对美元汇率曾触及7.0613，创下2024年10月以来的新高，而从11月20日到12月5日，短短十余天内人民币对美元汇率已累计上涨 468个基点，涨幅达0.66%。 年末的全球金融市场正被一股强劲的政策预期浪潮搅动，一边是人民币对美元汇率接连调升，不仅创下近一年多来新高，还被机构普遍看涨2026年走势。 另一边是现货白银价格突破60美元/盎司，实现年内翻倍的惊人涨幅。 这两大市场异动的背后，都指向美联储12月议息会议与潜在的降息动作，而新任美联储主席热门人选的宽松表态更添变数。 人民币升值的内外支撑能否持续？美联储降息分歧将如何落地？ 在岸人民币16:30收盘价和夜盘收盘价也同步呈现上行态势，市场对人民币汇率的乐观情绪正在快速升温。 为何人民币汇率能在年末迎来一波强势行情？这背后是内外双重因素的共振，从外部环境来看，美联储降息预期的升温成为关键推手。 11月下旬以来，多位美联储官员释放支持降息的信号，直接推动美元指数从100以上的区间回落至99 ...