Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran, nominated by President Trump for the Federal Reserve Board, aims to reassure concerns about potential government pressure on the Fed's independence during his upcoming Senate Banking Committee hearing [2][3] Group 1: Miran's Position and Responsibilities - Miran emphasizes the importance of the Fed's independence in preventing economic downturns and inflation, stating that he will work to maintain this independence if appointed [2] - He commits to making policy decisions based on macroeconomic analysis and the long-term health of the economy, adhering to Congress's goals of low inflation and a healthy labor market [2] - Miran raises questions about the Fed's regulatory activities beyond its dual mandate, particularly regarding the composition of its balance sheet [2] Group 2: Context and Implications - Miran's potential appointment comes at a sensitive time for the Fed, which has faced pressure from Trump for not significantly lowering interest rates as expected [2][3] - If confirmed, Miran will fill the vacancy left by Adriana Kugler, who resigned, and his term may be short-lived, potentially lasting only a few months [3] - There are speculations that Trump may be seeking to appoint a "shadow chairman" to influence the Fed's direction, as he has expressed a desire for a board majority that aligns with his views [3]

作为特朗普经济政策的支持者，米兰曾多次批评美联储未能降息，并呼吁对美联储目前的架构进行重大 改革。 当地时间9月4日10点，美国总统特朗普提名的美联储理事人选、白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰 将出席参议院银行委员会举行的听证会。 米兰：维护美联储独立性 在提交给参议院银行委员会的听证词中，米兰强调将维护美联储货币政策的独立性。他表示："在我看 来，央行最重要的职责是防止经济萧条和恶性通货膨胀。货币政策的独立性是其成功的关键因素。" "如果提名获得确认，我将根据国会赋予的授权尽职尽责地履行我的职责。"米兰表示，"我的意见和决 定将基于我对宏观经济的分析以及对其长期管理最有利的方案。联邦公开市场委员会是一个肩负重任的 独立机构，我打算保持这种独立性，并尽我所能为美国人民服务。" 他同时在证词中抛出问题："美联储监管着全球最重要的金融机构。它为借款人和贷款人（包括其他央 行）设定不同的货币价格。美联储资产负债表的最终构成是一个悬而未决的问题。" 特朗普加速"重组"美联储 特朗普和共和党人正以前所未有的速度推进米兰的理事提名。按美国证券交易委员会（SEC）保罗·阿 特金斯（Paul Atkins）的提名就职流程， ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold is becoming one of the hottest assets this year amid waning confidence in dollar assets and rising inflation risks [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The surge in gold prices is synchronized with Trump's tariffs and unprecedented actions aimed at influencing Federal Reserve decisions, leading to a weaker dollar and declining short-term Treasury yields [3][5] - Gold prices have surpassed $3,500 per ounce, reaching a historical high, as markets anticipate imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][10] - The Federal Reserve's independence is under challenge, with Trump's pressure seen as a strong support for gold's record price surge [6][10] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors increasingly view Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve as a potential path to a dimmer economic outlook, which could enhance gold's appeal [6] - The current market sentiment is not in panic mode, but there is a significant increase in bets on interest rate cuts, with traders anticipating a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [9] - Wall Street is generally optimistic about gold's future performance, with major financial institutions raising their gold price targets due to deteriorating economic conditions [10][11] Group 3: Future Projections - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach $4,000 by the end of 2026, primarily due to the loss of Federal Reserve independence [11] - Despite high current gold prices, there is still room for increased investment, as allocations in gold ETFs remain below previous peaks during the pandemic and geopolitical tensions [11] - The shift of funds from U.S. Treasuries to gold is expected to continue, indicating potential for further investment in gold as a safe haven [11]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2023, driven by four main factors: the independence of the Federal Reserve, expectations of interest rate cuts, uncertainty surrounding tariffs, and the ongoing trend of "de-dollarization" [1][6]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - **Federal Reserve Independence**: Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified, particularly with Trump's influence over the board. A loss of independence could lead to increased inflation risks, debt issues, and a weakened dollar, driving investors towards safe-haven assets like gold [2]. - **Interest Rate Cut Expectations**: The market anticipates a 91.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, up from 75% prior to the JH meeting. Historically, gold has risen during most rate cut cycles, making this a significant factor for its price increase [3]. - **Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty**: Recent court rulings regarding tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened market uncertainty, further increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - **De-dollarization Trend**: Global central banks are increasingly purchasing gold, with it becoming the second-largest reserve asset after the dollar. This trend is expected to support gold demand amid rising concerns over U.S. fiscal policies and the dollar's stability [5]. Group 2: Market Outlook - **Continued Upward Pressure**: The macroeconomic environment is expected to maintain strong demand for gold from both private sectors and ETFs, which will likely attract more capital inflows and support higher gold prices [6][7].

Core Points - President Trump's unprecedented threat to dismiss a sitting Federal Reserve governor has sparked significant public outcry and raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - Nearly 600 economists, including two Nobel laureates, have signed an open letter urging the White House to cease actions that undermine the Federal Reserve's independence [1][10] - The ongoing debate centers around the potential for interest rate cuts, with market expectations for a rate cut exceeding 90% ahead of the Federal Reserve's September 18 meeting [3] Economic Indicators - The core PCE price index in July rose by 2.6% year-over-year, indicating that inflation pressures have not intensified, despite ongoing concerns from retailers about the impact of tariff policies [5] - The job market has shown signs of significant cooling, with only 78,000 new jobs added in July, far below the level needed to maintain a healthy job market [7] - The number of Federal Reserve officials supporting a rate cut has increased from two to at least five, with key figures expressing more dovish views [7] Political Implications - Trump's push for a substantial rate cut, aiming for a reduction of 300 basis points to around 1%, is seen as an attempt to mitigate the inflationary effects of his tariff policies and shift economic responsibility to the Federal Reserve [6][9] - The potential dismissal of Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, nominated by President Biden, could allow Trump to gain greater control over the Federal Reserve's decision-making [9] - The backlash against Trump's actions includes strong statements from economists and international officials warning that undermining the Federal Reserve's independence could lead to higher long-term interest rates and inflation [10]

2025.09. 03 本文字数：2499，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议在即，库克诉特朗普案（案号25-cv-2903）能否有结果？ 当地时间9月2日，美联储理事库克的律师洛厄尔（Abbe Lowell）着重强调了他在上周听证会上提出的论点，称特朗普政府缺乏"因故"（for course）"解雇库克的正当理由，而这正是质疑库克被解雇诉讼中的关键问题。 洛厄尔表示，库克"从未犯过抵押贷款欺诈罪"，并称特朗普政府仅仅是基于社交媒体帖子，"复制粘贴"了抵押贷款欺诈指控。 不过，尽管库克寻求一项允许她保住工作的紧急裁决，但2日提交的法庭文件显示，本周末之前可能不会有裁决。美国华盛顿地区法官科布（Jia Cobb）要求特朗普政府在4日前提交补充辩论，这暗示她不会在此之前作出裁决。 FOMC会议则定于9月16日至17日召开。 英国杜伦大学法学院副院长、跨国法教授兼全球政策研究所联合主任杜明教授对第一财经记者表示，库克方面必须"硬着头皮撑过这几天"，否则形同承 认有问题，当前需要的是评估证据的真实性。 截至3日记者发稿，美联储网站上仍显示，库克为美联储理事。 来源：美联 ...

该小组关于米兰的辩论，正值特朗普试图解雇美联储理事库克的背景下展开。特朗普提名米兰填补因库 格勒提前离任而空出的美联储理事席位。 美国总统特朗普改造美联储的运动将于周四取得进展，届时参议院将就他提名的一位亲密顾问担任美联 储理事一事，举行一场加速的确认听证会。 参议院银行委员会对米兰任命的审查，将首次让外界深入观察，知名的共和党参议员们将如何在对独立 央行的长期支持与对本党领袖的忠诚之间取得平衡。特朗普已公开誓言要很快在美联储获得多数席位并 降低利率。 目前还没有共和党参议员暗示他们会冒着与特朗普决裂的风险反对这一提名。 民主党人私下承认，该委员会的时间表可能使他们无法将确认投票推迟足够长的时间，来阻止米兰参加 9月中旬一次关键的货币政策会议，外界已普遍预计美联储将在那次会议上进行自去年12月以来的首次 降息。 另一位委员会成员，北卡罗来纳州的Thom Tillis也不寻求对美联储进行激进的改革，另外，他因为不竞 选连任而拥有一些"政治自由"。 今年早些时候，米兰以53票赞成、46票反对的结果获得共和党一致支持，被任命为现任白宫官员。鉴于 特朗普在共和党基本盘中依然拥有压倒性支持，若要阻止米兰出任美联储理事， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights significant movements in the commodity and bond markets, particularly the surge in gold and silver prices, driven by factors such as the weakening independence of the Federal Reserve, expectations of interest rate cuts, rising inflation pressures in the U.S., and the diminishing hedging function of long-term government bonds [1][3][5]. - Gold has recently broken the $3,500 mark, reaching a historical high, while silver has surpassed $40, marking a 14-year peak [3]. - The bond market is experiencing a sell-off, with long-term government bond yields in developed markets, including the U.S., U.K., and France, reaching multi-year highs, indicating a loss of investor confidence in the existing financial system [4][5]. Group 2 - The U.S. inflation rate is approaching 3%, and the potential for a significant economic impact from this inflation may not be fully realized until the fourth quarter [3]. - The U.K.'s current deficit as a percentage of GDP is comparable to historical periods of significant upheaval, such as the French Revolution [6]. - The article suggests that as governments accumulate excessive debt and lose the trust of major debt buyers, investors are increasingly turning to gold as a reliable asset that does not depend on government promises [8]. Group 3 - The articles indicate that September is historically a poor month for stock and bond markets, with global government bonds over ten years showing a median decline of 2% in September over the past decade [10]. - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term investment value of European stocks remains strong, supported by sectors such as luxury goods, pharmaceuticals, and green energy, which possess significant pricing power and competitive advantages [19][20]. - The New Zealand Superannuation Fund is strategically reallocating its investments, betting on European stocks outperforming U.S. stocks over the next decade based on valuation assessments [21].

近600名经济学家签署了一封公开信，警告称库克可能被解雇将威胁美联储的独立性。 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议在即，库克诉特朗普案（案号25-cv-2903）能否有结果？ 当地时间9月2日，美联储理事库克的律师洛厄尔（Abbe Lowell）着重强调了他在上周听证会上提出的 论点，称特朗普政府缺乏"因故"（for course）"解雇库克的正当理由，而这正是质疑库克被解雇诉讼中 的关键问题。 洛厄尔表示，库克"从未犯过抵押贷款欺诈罪"，并称特朗普政府仅仅是基于社交媒体帖子，"复制粘 贴"了抵押贷款欺诈指控。 不过，尽管库克寻求一项允许她保住工作的紧急裁决，但2日提交的法庭文件显示，本周末之前可能不 会有裁决。美国华盛顿地区法官科布（Jia Cobb）要求特朗普政府在4日前提交补充辩论，这暗示她不 会在此之前作出裁决。 FOMC会议则定于9月16日至17日召开。 "指控尚未得到证实" 英国杜伦大学法学院副院长、跨国法教授兼全球政策研究所联合主任杜明教授对第一财经记者表示，库 克方面必须"硬着头皮撑过这几天"，否则形同承认有问题，当前需要的是评估证据的真实性。 截至3日记者发稿，美联储网站上仍显示，库克为美联 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices reached a historical high, with spot gold touching $3546.919 per ounce and COMEX futures rising to $3616.9 per ounce, driven by renewed concerns over the Federal Reserve and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by over one-third, making it one of the best-performing major commodities, with geopolitical and economic risks contributing to the rising demand for gold and silver [1] - The market is awaiting a significant court ruling regarding President Trump's potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook, which could impact the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts predict that international gold prices will continue to rise, with Deutsche Bank forecasting gold to reach $3600 per ounce by the end of next year, and Morgan Stanley setting an even higher target of $3800 per ounce [4] - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as a catalyst for a new upward trend in gold prices, as the dollar's safety is increasingly questioned [4] - The trend of central banks purchasing gold instead of holding dollar reserves is expected to accelerate, driving long-term demand for gold [4]