● 本报记者 马爽 自4月下旬国际黄金价格创下历史新高后，便陷入高位震荡格局，虽然期间有两次上冲尝试，但均未能 突破前期高点，短期上冲动能明显不足。 业内人士表示，长期来看，去美元化交易逻辑、美国"大而美"法案及美联储货币政策前景等因素，为国 际黄金价格提供了稳固支撑，牛市行情有望延续。然而，受国际贸易局势、美国相关政策执行等多重因 素交织影响，下半年黄金价格或呈现先抑后扬走势。 短期上冲动能不足 自4月下旬创下历史新高后，国际黄金价格便陷入了高位震荡格局。Wind数据显示，今年伊始，伦敦黄 金现货价格从2600美元/盎司附近起步，一路震荡上行，4月22日盘中触及历史最高价3500.12美元/盎 司，此后便在高位维持震荡走势。期间虽有过两次上冲尝试，但始终未能成功突破前期高点。 紫金天风期货贵金属分析师刘诗瑶表示，2025年上半年，国际贸易局势风云变幻以及美国预算赤字扩 张，削弱了美元资产吸引力，推动国际黄金价格出现显著上涨。然而，自4月下旬起，国际贸易局势有 所缓和，黄金价格上涨动能随之减弱。 东证衍生品研究院宏观策略首席分析师徐颖表示，在4月国际贸易局势不断升级的进程中，大量市场资 金纷纷涌入黄金市场做多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act has resolved the U.S. debt ceiling issue, leading to market concerns about a significant increase in U.S. Treasury supply in Q3, potentially repeating the rapid interest rate rise seen in 2023Q3. The net issuance of Treasuries in Q3 may reach approximately $1.12 trillion, second only to 2020Q2, indicating substantial supply pressure. However, historical analysis suggests that this increase is already anticipated by the market, and a rapid rise in rates would require sustained economic growth to support it, making a repeat of the 2023Q3 scenario unlikely. If Treasury rates rise significantly in 2023Q3, it could prompt the Federal Reserve to accelerate its easing cycle [2][9]. Group 1 - The estimated net issuance of Treasuries for 2025Q3 is approximately $1.12 trillion, which is only second to the peak in 2020Q2 and exceeds the actual financing amount of $1.01 trillion in 2023Q3 [4][10][18]. - The net issuance of Treasuries is calculated as the sum of the fiscal deficit and changes in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, with the fiscal deficit for 2025Q3 estimated at $0.6 trillion and TGA net growth at $0.52 trillion [4][10][18]. - The actual quarterly financing amount from the Treasury is expected to be around $1.12 trillion, slightly higher than the financing amount during the supply panic in 2023Q3 [19]. Group 2 - The supply panic in 2023Q3 was primarily due to the actual quarterly financing amount significantly exceeding expectations, with a financing amount of $1.01 trillion compared to an expected $0.85 trillion [5][23][25]. - The TGA balance at the beginning of 2023Q3 was lower than anticipated due to the debt ceiling issue, which contributed to the supply panic [5][25][26]. - For 2025Q3, the expected Treasury supply is anticipated to align with market expectations, reducing the likelihood of a repeat of the 2023Q3 panic [26][28]. Group 3 - The pressure from maturing Treasuries in Q3 is not expected to be significant, with a total maturity amount of approximately $7.2 trillion for 2025Q3, which does not represent a substantial increase compared to historical data [6][33]. - The total maturity amount for medium- and long-term Treasuries in 2025 is estimated at $3.3 trillion, with $0.85 trillion maturing in 2025Q3 [6][33]. Group 4 - The total issuance of Treasuries for 2025 is estimated at $30.6 trillion, with $8.32 trillion expected in 2025Q3, indicating a high issuance pressure [7][36]. - Adjusting the debt issuance structure by increasing the proportion of short-term debt could alleviate some pressure on long-term debt issuance, but it cannot fully offset the issuance pressure in Q3 [7][45]. - The historical trend shows that the proportion of medium- and long-term debt issuance has decreased, with the current structure potentially leading to excessive short-term debt issuance that the market may struggle to absorb [7][42][44].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, precious metals showed a pattern of gold being weak and silver being strong, mainly due to the short - term high - level callback of safe - haven demand. The market has become dull to trade - war and Middle - East geopolitical risks. In terms of monetary attributes, strong employment and inflation in the US rule out the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near term. The Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards rate cuts due to internal disagreements. In terms of commodity attributes, there is still an expected supply - demand gap for silver, and industrial demand is expected to improve. Short - term precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly. In the medium and long term, the increasing risk of economic recession may force the rate - cut logic to develop, and precious metals are expected to remain at a high level in the medium term and show a long - term upward trend [5]. - Gold jewelry consumption is restricted by high prices, but investment demand for gold bars offsets some of the impact. Central banks in emerging markets, including the People's Bank of China, are driving up gold - buying demand through their "de - dollarization" strategies. The World Silver Association expects the global silver supply - demand gap to narrow by 21% in 2025, to 117.6 million ounces (about 3658 tons) [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Risk - aversion Attribute - The trade war has entered a new stage, and there are continuous geopolitical changes in the Middle East, but the market has become dull to these two types of safe - haven factors [5]. - Trump once threatened to fire Powell but later clarified that he would "take no action for the time being", easing market concerns [5]. 2. Monetary Attribute - The Fed's Beige Book shows that US economic activity has increased, but tariffs have brought price pressure, making the outlook pessimistic. US employment and inflation growth are still strong, eliminating the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near term. The Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards rate cuts due to internal disagreements. The market expects the next Fed rate cut to be postponed to September, and the total rate - cut space in 2025 is expected to drop to about 50 basis points. The US 6 - month CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month [2][5]. - A review of the Fed's monetary policy path from 2024 - 2025 shows different stances on rate cuts at different times, including rate cuts of different magnitudes, concerns about inflation and employment, and changes in the expected number of rate cuts [10][11]. 3. Commodity Attribute - Gold jewelry consumption is restricted by high prices, but investment demand for gold bars offsets some of the impact. Central banks in emerging markets are driving up gold - buying demand through their "de - dollarization" strategies [2]. - The World Silver Association expects the global silver supply - demand gap to narrow by 21% in 2025, to 117.6 million ounces (about 3658 tons) due to a 1% decrease in demand and a 2% increase in total supply [2]. 4. Capital Flow - Recently, the net long positions of CFTC managed funds in gold and silver have been slightly reduced. In the domestic market, the net long positions of institutions in Shanghai gold have remained at a high level, while those in Shanghai silver have been slightly reduced. The world's largest gold ETF and silver ETF have ended their long - term downward trends and are slowly increasing their positions [3]. 5. Future Investment Logic Evolution No specific content provided in the report. 6. Weekly Strategy - Short - term: Precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly. - Medium - term: Precious metals are expected to remain at a high level. - Long - term: Precious metals are expected to show an upward trend [5]. 7. Support and Resistance - Support for Shanghai gold futures main contract: 755 - 760; Resistance: 790 - 795. - Support for Shanghai silver futures main contract: 8900 - 8930; Resistance: 9400 - 9430 [5].

Group 1 - The current gold market is influenced by multiple factors including Federal Reserve monetary policy, tariff policies, U.S. economic data, and dollar movements [2][3] - Despite short-term pressure on gold prices, there is optimism regarding the long-term outlook due to support from dip-buying and the uncertain tariff policies enhancing gold's safe-haven appeal [2][3] - The divergence in market sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction is indicated by the strong buying interest in gold despite rising U.S. Treasury yields [1][2] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that gold prices are experiencing volatility, with significant resistance around $3343 and support levels between $3310 and $3282 [3][5] - The trading strategy suggests a focus on short positions when prices rebound to resistance levels, while also considering long positions at lower support levels [6][5] - The market is expected to remain in a wide-ranging fluctuation, with potential for significant price movements on Fridays, influenced by broader economic indicators and geopolitical tensions [5][6]

Report Overview - **Report Name**: Shanjin Futures Crude Oil Daily Report - **Update Time**: July 18, 2025, 08:15 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - OPEC+ is likely to increase production, and high - frequency data is gradually confirming this. The medium - to long - term outlook for crude oil is bearish, but geopolitical factors may still have a pulsed impact, though less intense than before. The focus of crude oil trading may return to supply and demand [2]. - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain, with the possibility of renewed conflict between Israel and Iran. However, the impact on oil prices may be limited if the expectation of blocked shipping lanes does not return [2]. - The "Big and Beautiful" bill signed by Trump may have a gradual and spill - over impact on the market. The implementation of high tariffs may lead to bearish macro - side expectations, higher inflation in the US, and make it difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates [2]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil Futures**: On July 1, Sc was at 499.40 yuan/barrel, up 2.70 yuan (0.54%) from the previous day and down 19.20 yuan (-3.70%) from the previous week. WTI was at 65.53 dollars/barrel, up 0.56 dollars (0.86%) from the previous day and up 0.52 dollars (0.80%) from the previous week. Brent was at 67.28 dollars/barrel, up 0.65 dollars (0.98%) from the previous day and down 0.54 dollars (-0.80%) from the previous week [2]. - **Spreads**: Sc - WTI was at 4.28 dollars/barrel, down 0.13 dollars (-2.99%) from the previous day and down 3.08 dollars (-41.84%) from the previous week. Sc - Brent was at 2.53 dollars/barrel, down 0.22 dollars (-8.06%) from the previous day and down 2.02 dollars (-44.37%) from the previous week [2]. - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at 68.35 dollars/barrel, up 0.36 dollars (0.53%) from the previous week. Brent DTD was at 68.17 dollars/barrel, down 1.05 dollars (-1.52%) from the previous week. Oman was at 69.20 dollars/barrel, up 1.40 dollars (2.06%) from the previous week. Dubai was at 68.75 dollars/barrel, up 0.95 dollars (1.40%) from the previous week [2]. - **Product Spot Prices**: Diesel in East China was at 7036.45 yuan/ton, down 56.27 yuan (-0.79%) from the previous day and down 380.55 yuan (-5.13%) from the previous week. Gasoline in East China was at 8078.18 yuan/ton, down 66.18 yuan (-0.81%) from the previous day and down 384.27 yuan (-4.54%) from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory Data**: Sc warehouse receipts were at 591.10 million barrels, up 188.20 million barrels (46.71%) from the previous week. US strategic petroleum reserves were at 402.53 million barrels, up 0.24 million barrels (0.06%) from the previous week. US commercial crude oil was at 415.11 million barrels, down 5.84 million barrels (-1.39%) from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Geopolitical and Policy News - E3 foreign ministers and the EU High Representative called on Iran to return to diplomatic channels to reach a verifiable and lasting nuclear agreement by the end of summer, or face renewed UN sanctions [3]. - A US assessment found that only one of the three Iranian nuclear facilities attacked last month was largely destroyed, and Trump rejected a more comprehensive military strike plan against Iran's nuclear program [3]. - Angola plans to increase its oil exports to 1.03 million barrels per day in September [3]. 3.3 Macroeconomic News - In May 2025, Japan and the UK increased their holdings of US Treasury bonds, while China continued to reduce its holdings. Japan's holdings were 1.135 trillion dollars, the UK's were 0.8094 trillion dollars, and China's were 0.7563 trillion dollars [4]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 46.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 51.7% [4]. - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Some believe rates should remain unchanged due to tariff - induced inflation pressure, while others support a 25 - basis - point cut [4][5][6]. 3.4 Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations - In the medium term, the market is in a neutral oscillation pattern, with support and resistance levels around 65 and 68.3 dollars/barrel respectively. Short - term attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the 66.5 dollars/barrel resistance level for US crude oil [2]. - The trading strategy is to sell on rallies, choose the right timing, or use out - of - the - money put options to avoid short - term bullish shocks [2]

智通财经APP获悉，美国零售市场呈现全面回暖态势，为缓解市场对消费者支出收缩的担忧提供了积极信号。美国商务部周四发布的最新 数据显示，未调整通胀的零售额在经历前两个月连续下滑后，6月实现0.6%的环比增幅，这一增长幅度超出对经济学家调查的所有预测值。 值得注意的是，最新通胀数据显示玩具、家电等高关税商品价格已出现显著上涨，表明进口成本正逐步向终端消费传导。这种价格传导机 制对美联储货币政策走向的影响尚存不确定性，政策制定者当前更关注关税冲击是短期一次性影响还是将形成持续通胀压力。 需要说明的是，零售额数据主要反映商品购买情况，约占居民消费支出的三分之一，而包含服务的整体消费数据需待本月下旬发布的6月通 胀调整支出报告才能完整呈现。这份即将公布的报告将更全面反映消费者实际购买力变化，为判断经济走势提供关键依据。 美联储在政策制定中面临两难抉择。尽管6月零售数据中的餐饮消费增长0.6%显示服务业韧性，但鲍威尔在国会听证会上强调，需观察关税 引发的价格上涨是否具有持续性。在明确判断形成前，美联储预计将在本月会议上继续维持利率稳定。 值得注意的是，作为零售报告中唯一的服务业指标，餐饮与酒吧消费延续增长态势，单月增幅达 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the market volatility triggered by Trump's comments regarding the potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which was later denied by Trump [2] - The spot gold market experienced significant fluctuations, reaching a high of $3377.53 per ounce and a low of $3319.72 per ounce, ultimately closing at $3347.42 per ounce [2] - Current trading strategies for spot gold suggest a range-bound approach, with a trading range identified between $3335.00 and $3358.00, recommending buying low and selling high within this range [3] Group 2 - The spot silver market is also in a consolidation phase, with a trading range identified between $37.490 and $38.090, suggesting similar high-low trading strategies [5] - If the silver market breaks below the support level of $37.490, it is advised to consider short positions with target prices set between $37.100 and $36.800 per ounce [5] - Conversely, if the market breaks above the resistance level of $38.090, it is recommended to pursue long positions with target prices potentially reaching $38.500 to $38.800 per ounce [6]

Group 1 - The international silver price rose to $37.89 per ounce, an increase of $0.20 or 0.52%, amid new tariffs imposed by the U.S. on 17 countries, adding uncertainty to global trade prospects [1] - The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that as of July 16, silver ETF holdings decreased by 36.73 tons to 14,819.29 tons [1][2] - The U.S. has announced reciprocal tariffs on major trading partners, including the EU, Japan, Canada, Mexico, and South Korea, due to the failure to reach an agreement during a 90-day tariff truce [2] Group 2 - The U.S. inflation rate surged to 2.7% as a result of rising import prices, raising questions about the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in September [3] - Market experts warn that the current price pressures only reflect the initial impact of tariffs on certain industries, with the full effects of the tariffs yet to be seen [3] - The international silver market experienced fluctuations, with a recent support level identified between $37.30 and $37.50, and a potential drop below $37.30 could lead to testing lower support levels [4]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's strategists express optimism about the dollar-denominated corporate bond market, expecting it to continue its recent strong performance in the short term based on a comprehensive analysis of the current U.S. economic situation, corporate financial conditions, and market environment [1] Economic Impact - The U.S. economy is expected to experience a slight slowdown due to tariff policies, which have significantly impacted global trade dynamics and created adjustment pressures on the domestic economy [3] - Tariff increases have led to rising costs for some imported goods, affecting consumer purchasing power and putting operational pressure on companies reliant on imported raw materials [3] - Trade-related indicators, such as the manufacturing PMI, have shown signs of slowing, indicating that tariff policies are gradually impacting the U.S. economy [3] Corporate Resilience - Despite the slight economic slowdown, corporate financial conditions are not expected to deteriorate significantly, reflecting strong corporate resilience [4] - Companies are effectively responding to challenges posed by rising costs through supply chain optimization, increased production efficiency, and product structure adjustments [4] - Financial reports indicate that most large corporations maintain robust profitability and cash flow, with no significant weakening in debt repayment capabilities [4] Market Stability - In the absence of an actual economic recession, it is unlikely that any factors will destabilize the market in the short term, reflecting the current stability of the bond market [5] - The U.S. economy, while facing slowing pressures, has not shown clear signs of recession, with a strong job market and low unemployment rates supporting stable consumer demand [5] - The Federal Reserve's relatively accommodative monetary policy and ample market liquidity provide a favorable environment for the corporate bond market [5] Bond Market Performance - Recent performance shows that dollar-denominated corporate bond yields remain stable, with credit spreads within a reasonable range, indicating low market concern regarding corporate credit risk [5] - Investment-grade corporate bonds are favored by risk-averse investors due to their high credit ratings and low default risk, while high-yield bonds attract yield-seeking investors, contributing to active market trading [6] Investor Guidance - The views of Morgan Stanley's strategists are significant for investors, suggesting that the dollar-denominated corporate bond market is likely to continue performing well in the short term [6] - Investors are advised to adjust their bond product allocations based on their risk tolerance to achieve stable returns while remaining vigilant about economic changes [6] - Key factors influencing the corporate bond market include the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which could affect overall bond yields and prices [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions, U.S. monetary policy uncertainty, and trade disputes, which have heightened market volatility and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4]. Fundamental Analysis - The independence crisis of the Federal Reserve and President Trump's comments about possibly firing Powell have caused market turbulence, leading to a drop in the dollar index and a rise in gold prices [3]. - Market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have increased due to economic slowdown forecasts, which may favor gold prices [3]. - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for June remained flat month-on-month, easing concerns about immediate tightening of monetary policy, while year-on-year PPI showed an increase, indicating potential long-term inflation risks that could benefit gold [3]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly Israel's airstrikes in Syria, have intensified market risk aversion, boosting gold demand [3]. - Trade tensions, including Trump's threats of tariffs on EU imports and a unified tax rate on over 150 countries, have raised inflation and economic growth concerns, prompting investors to seek gold as a hedge [4]. Technical Analysis - Gold is currently within a triangular convergence range since reaching 3500, with recent volatility observed [5]. - Key support levels include the 5/30-day moving average around 3342 and the 10/20-day moving average near 3332/3330, with a critical support level at 3319 [7]. - Resistance levels to watch are the recent high of 3377 and the 3400 area, which has previously acted as a resistance zone [7]. - The four-hour chart indicates a complex structure, with key levels at 3282 and 3247 to monitor for potential downward breaks [9]. Upcoming Focus - Key economic data releases to watch include U.S. retail sales for June and initial jobless claims for the week ending July 12, which could impact market sentiment and gold prices [4].