有色金属日报 2025-12-24 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 【行情资讯】 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 陈仪方 从业资格号：F03152004 0755-23375125 chenyf3@wkqh.cn 离岸人民币走强，美元指数偏弱，贵金属延续上涨，铜价创历史新高，昨日伦铜收涨 1.21%至 12055 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 94890 元/吨。LME 库存增加 825 至 158525 吨，注 ...

（原标题：见证历史了！黄金、白银、铜都创下新高） 【导读】美股震荡，黄金、白银、铜都创下了历史新高 美股震荡上涨 12月23日晚间，美股三大指数震荡微涨。 美股走势反复，美国商务部公布数据显示，美国第三季度经济增速按年化计算为4.3%，显著好于道琼 斯调查经济学家预期的3.2%。报告显示，美国经济以两年来最快速度扩张，令交易员更加相信美联储 在1月将暂停本轮宽松周期。 这份报告原定于10月30日发布，但由于创纪录的美国政府停摆而延期。数据"意外强劲"可能让市场担 心：美联储在2026年初降息的可能性变小。 分析师表示："如果经济持续以这样的水平增长，就没那么需要担心经济放缓，市场的焦点反而可能重 新回到'价格稳定'这个约束上来。" 货币市场下调了对2026年降息的押注：市场预计美联储在1月降息的概率只有17%。但 CME"FedWatch"工具显示，市场整体仍大体计入了到明年年底累计两次降息的预期。 23日晚间，市场另一个关注点，就是大宗商品的表现。 其中，黄金和白银双双大涨并刷新历史新高。现货白银一度上涨2.4%，首次突破每盎司70美元；黄金 则逼近每盎司4,500美元，在创下逾一个月来最大单日涨幅后继续走 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chief analyst of precious metals at Qisheng Futures, Liu Xufeng, believes that the commodity attributes of precious metals are likely to replace their financial and monetary attributes, becoming the main driving force behind price movements [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The widening supply-demand gap for silver may provide price support [1] - A key turning point in the precious metals market could occur around mid-2026 [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Environment - The expected appointment of Kevin Hassett, who is perceived as dovish, to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in May 2026 may accelerate the pace of monetary policy easing [1] - The Federal Reserve has resumed balance sheet expansion in response to economic downturn pressures and the longest government shutdown in history, but there are potential risks of marginal tightening in liquidity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The chief analyst of Qisheng Futures, Liu Xufeng, believes that the commodity attributes of precious metals are expected to replace their financial and monetary attributes, becoming the main driving force behind price movements, with an expanding supply-demand gap in silver likely supporting prices [1] Group 1: Silver Supply and Demand - The global silver market has experienced a supply shortage for five consecutive years from 2021 to 2025, with deficits of 2,468 tons, 7,762 tons, 6,240 tons, 4,632 tons, and 3,659 tons respectively [2] - Despite a slowdown in global economic growth post-COVID-19 affecting demand expansion, the supply-demand imbalance has not been fully resolved [2] - In 2026, silver demand is expected to see a structural recovery driven by improved investment sentiment and the rapid development of emerging fields such as artificial intelligence and computing devices, which will increase industrial demand for silver and silver alloy coatings [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Monetary Policy - As of November 2025, the U.S. CPI has decreased to an annual rate of 2.7%, with core CPI at 2.6%, indicating limited risk of significant inflation rebound [3] - The manufacturing PMI has been in contraction territory, recorded at 48.2 in November, with weak new orders and employment components, while the service sector remains resilient but may weaken in 2026 [3] - A potential turning point may occur in mid-2026, coinciding with the end of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's term, with expectations that Kevin Hassett, who is perceived as dovish, may accelerate monetary easing if appointed [3] Group 3: Risks and Investment Strategies - The long-term influence of the U.S. dollar credit system is weakening, as evidenced by ongoing gold purchases by global central banks, reflecting a diversification demand away from dollar assets [4] - The People's Bank of China has shown a slowdown in gold purchases in 2025, raising questions about whether it will pause further accumulation in 2026 [4] - While the macro environment may support precious metal prices in the medium to long term, multiple risk factors, including liquidity risks and potential inflation rebounds, should be closely monitored [4] - Investors are advised to focus on upward opportunities while remaining vigilant against short-term extreme volatility, and to reassess the long-term bullish logic for silver if the overseas economy stabilizes during a rate-cutting cycle [4]

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy experienced a significant growth of 4.3% annualized in Q3 2025, surpassing expectations of 3.3% and increasing from 3.8% in Q2 2025, marking the strongest growth since Q3 2023 [2] - Historical trends indicate that strong GDP quarters are often followed by slower growth, as seen after the 4.7% growth in Q3 2023, which dropped to 3.4% in Q4 2023 and further to 0.8% in Q1 2024 [3] Consumer Behavior and Economic Indicators - Consumer spending remains robust, driven by the wealth effect from rising asset prices, while inflation is declining but still elevated, contributing to a "Goldilocks scenario" for the economy [4] - Weak hiring trends in industries reliant on immigrant labor and softening retail sales in border states suggest potential challenges ahead [6] Prediction Markets and Future Growth Expectations - Prediction markets indicate a 20% chance of U.S. growth between 2% and 2.5% in Q4 2025, up from 17%, while the probability of growth below 1% increased to 14% [7] - The likelihood of growth exceeding 3.5% in Q4 2025 has decreased to 10%, down three percentage points, reflecting a fading conviction in another strong quarter [7] Recession and Monetary Policy Outlook - Despite the strong GDP data, the probability of a recession in 2026 remains stable at around 28%, having previously decreased from nearly 35% [8] - Traders anticipate multiple rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with a 23% probability of three cuts in 2026 and a 22% chance of two cuts, indicating a dovish outlook on monetary policy [9]

截至2025年12月23日，现货黄金年内涨幅已超71%，最高触及4522美元/盎司，刷新历史纪录。以下是 对这一现象的详细分析： 1. 全球经济不确定性增加：地缘政治风险（如俄乌冲突、中东局势）持续发酵，贸易摩擦（如中美 关税博弈）加剧市场波动，投资者避险情绪升温，黄金作为传统避险资产需求激增。 2. 美联储货币政策转向：美联储在2025年9月开启降息周期，叠加市场对2026年进一步降息的预期升 温，实际利率下行降低了持有黄金的机会成本，推动金价上涨。 3. 美元信用体系受质疑：美国债务规模突破36万亿美元，财政赤字持续膨胀，全球央行加速"去美元 化"，增持黄金以分散外汇储备风险。中国央行连续12个月增持黄金，成为金价上涨的重要支撑。 4. 投资需求与资金流入：全球黄金ETF连续六个月净流入，11月单月流入达52亿美元，资产管理总 规模创5300亿美元新高。投机性资金与配置型资金协同进场，进一步强化上涨趋势。 二、金价上涨的具体表现 1. 价格突破关键整数关口：现货黄金年内先后突破3000美元、4000美元、4500美元等关键心理阻力 位，最高触及4522美元/盎司，较年初上涨超71%。 2. 多次刷新历史新 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar is on track to record its worst annual performance in eight years, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 8.2% year-to-date, potentially marking the largest annual decline since 2017 [1] - The dollar index fell 0.3% on Tuesday, reaching its lowest point since October 3, indicating a significant downward trend [1] - A slight further decline in the dollar could result in the worst annual performance in over 20 years [1] Group 2 - Market expectations suggest a divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and other major central banks, contributing to ongoing downward pressure on the dollar [4] - The Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and Swedish krona have shown strong performance, with the Canadian dollar reaching its highest level since August [4] - The options market reflects increasing pessimism regarding the dollar, with traders showing heightened bearish sentiment for the next three months [4] Group 3 - Concerns over fiscal discipline and escalating trade tensions are negatively impacting the dollar's outlook, as noted by Swissquote's senior analyst [4] - There is a lack of bullish sentiment for the dollar in the market, with analysts indicating a predominantly bearish outlook [4] - Upcoming economic data could prompt a reassessment of market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy, potentially leading to a sharp rebound in the dollar [4]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has experienced a significant decline in 2025, with the dollar index dropping approximately 9%, marking its worst annual performance since 2017 [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Contributing to Dollar Decline - The dollar index saw a staggering drop of 10.8% in the first half of 2025, the largest decline for that period since 1973 [4]. - Key factors for the dollar's decline include expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, a rapid narrowing of interest rate differentials with other major economies, and concerns over the US's substantial fiscal deficit and political uncertainty [3][4]. - The imposition of tariffs on global trade partners has weakened the previously strong "American exceptionalism" narrative that supported the dollar [4]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates three times in 2025 has diminished the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [4][6]. Group 2: Future Outlook for the Dollar - Market sentiment remains pessimistic, with several institutions predicting that the downward trend of the dollar index will continue into 2026, with an expected further decline of about 3% by the end of that year [3][6]. - Analysts suggest that despite a potential short-term technical rebound, the structural weakness of the dollar is unlikely to reverse, driven by the divergence in monetary policies among major economies [6]. - The anticipated shift in the Federal Reserve's leadership towards more dovish figures may exacerbate the downward pressure on the dollar [6][7]. Group 3: Performance of Other Currencies and Assets - In contrast to the dollar's decline, non-US currencies have generally strengthened, with the euro appreciating approximately 14% against the dollar, and the Swiss franc and Swedish krona rising by 14.5% and 19%, respectively [4]. - Gold has emerged as a strong performer, with spot gold prices surging nearly 68% throughout the year, reflecting its status as a traditional safe-haven asset [5].

Group 1 - In 2025, both international gold and silver prices reached historical highs, with gold hitting $4500 per ounce and silver soaring to $69.81 per ounce, marking annual increases of 71% and 137% respectively [1][6][16] - The surge in gold prices was driven by factors such as U.S. tariffs, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and central bank purchases, particularly from China [2][14] - Silver outperformed gold significantly, especially in the second half of the year, as market dynamics shifted towards silver due to its lower holding costs and industrial demand [7][17] Group 2 - The first half of 2025 saw gold prices rise by 30%, primarily due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid U.S. tariff issues and the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2][14] - From mid-April to mid-August, gold experienced a period of consolidation despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, as the tariff situation temporarily eased [2][15] - A notable price drop of $236 per ounce occurred on October 21, attributed to crowded long positions in the market and external factors like U.S. government shutdowns [3][15] Group 3 - Silver's price increase was characterized by two phases, with the first half driven by liquidity support and the second half influenced by renewed inflation expectations and supply shortages [6][16] - The silver market saw a significant rise in demand due to its industrial applications, particularly in solar energy, and the expansion of silver ETFs [7][17] - Analysts predict that the bullish trend for precious metals will continue into 2026, driven by ongoing global monetary policy changes and geopolitical factors [8][18]

来源：中国经营报 【铂金价格单周飙涨20% 专家警示资金流出风险】12月23日，广州期货交易所（以下简称"广期所"） 铂、钯期货纷纷涨停。截至当日9时，现货铂金最高触及2149.47美元/盎司，相较12月16日的开盘价 1783.70美元/盎司，短短一周上涨20%。 南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹指出，近期价格运行主要围绕美联储货币政策、铂钯供需基 本面偏紧、短期投机问题、欧盟燃油车禁令调整等问题。近期美联储降息扩表，预计美联储在2026年上 半年继续采取宽松货币政策的政策基调不变。欧盟在德国等国压力下放宽2035年燃油车禁令，允许使用 低碳燃料的插混和高效燃油车继续销售，并下调企业车队电动化强制配额，利好铂钯在汽车催化剂方面 的需求。相较黄金，铂金和钯金的库存安全垫薄，价格弹性更高，在特定时期更容易受到短期投机资金 的集中推动，在突破关键点位后，其上涨受到现货市场流动性紧张的驱动。 中长期来看，夏莹莹认为，铂金的牛市基础仍在，短期来看，国内期货市场资金集中涌入导致铂金国内 外价差走扩，需警惕调整风险。由于内外盘不连续，铂钯开盘价常参考国外夜盘情况，投资者也需关注 国际市场的交易价格，警惕开盘跳空的现 ...